在第一层级，模仿是最基本的力量。竞争优势从定义上来说是一种区别。成功的区别会随着时间的推移被模仿所侵蚀。到那时，例外就会变成常态，并失去优势。

Operating at the first level, imitation is the most basic force. Competitive advantage is by definition a distinction. Successful distinctions, in time, are eroded by imitation. At that point, exceptions become norms and lose their advantage.

尽管模仿一直存在，但如今它对美国企业的意义已发生了巨大变化。信息技术、通信和逆向工程的进步增加了产品技术被模仿的脆弱性。现在，给定产品的任何技术特色都可能成为潜在模仿者的猎物，他们几乎可以在短时间内学习、复制和重现它。这种简单的模仿对美国工业意义重大。虽然产品技术传统上一直是美国竞争的基石，但拥有工艺技术优势的国家获得了双重优势。

Although imitation has been present at all times, today its significance for American business has changed by an order of magnitude. Advances in information technology, communication, and reverse engineering have increased the product technology's vulnerability to imitation. Any technological distinction in a given product is now fair game for potential imitators who can learn, copy, and reproduce it in practically no time. Such easy imitation has been significant for American industry. While product technology has traditionally been the cornerstone of the American competitive game, countries with an advantage in process technology have gained a dual advantage.

首先，很难复制工艺技术中的区别，因为其关键要素是知识型员工。其次，工艺技术能力使知识从一个环境转移到另一个环境变得更加简单，从而简化了新知识的操作。结果是显著的：上市时间更快、盈亏平衡点更低、产品种类更多、对变化的反应更快。

First, it is difficult to copy a distinction in process technology because its critical elements are knowledge workers. Second, competency in a process technology makes it simpler to transfer knowledge from one context to another, easing the operationalization of new knowledge. The results are dramatic: much faster time-to-market performance, a lower break-even point, better product variety, and faster response to change.

20 世纪 70 年代末，美国一家知名设备公司意识到，与日本直接竞争对手相比，其成本劣势高达 40%。讽刺的是，这家公司是叉车行业的技术领导者。其成本结构为 40% 的原材料、15% 的直接人工和 45% 的间接费用。间接费用（转换成本）简单地计算为直接人工的 300%。

In the late 1970s, a well-known equipment company in America realized it had a 40% cost disadvantage in comparison with its direct Japanese competitor. The company, ironically, was the technological leader in the lift truck industry. Its cost structure was 40% raw material, 15% direct labor, and 45% overhead. Overhead (transformation cost) was simply calculated as 300% of direct labor.

公司决定将成本降低 20%。假设直接人工成本减少 5%，间接成本就会自动再减少 15%，从而将成本降低 20%。经过整整一年的努力，直接人工成本下降到 10%，而间接成本却没有任何减少。当我们被要求处理这种情况时，我们的第一反应是：既然有 40% 的成本劣势，为什么有人要将成本降低 20%？40% 的成本优势从何而来？很明显，即使工人放弃所有的工资，公司也活不下去。

The company decided to reduce the cost by 20%. It was assumed that a 5% reduction in direct labor would automatically reduce overhead by another 15%, resulting in a 20% cost reduction. After a whole year of struggle, direct labor was reduced to 10% without any reduction in the overhead. When we were asked to deal with the situation, this was our first reaction: Why does anyone want to reduce the cost by 20% when there is a 40% cost disadvantage? Where did the 40% cost advantage come from? It was obvious that even if the workers gave up all of their wages the company would not survive.

然后我们意识到竞争产品只使用了 1,800 个零件，而我们的产品使用了 2,800 个零件。零件数量的差异完美地解释了成本差异。令人惊讶的是，竞争对手利用了我们客户在过去 10 年中开发的技术，从而实现了零件数量的减少。问题在于，我们的客户将其新开发的每一项技术都修补到旧平台上，导致产品复杂且效率低下，而竞争对手则从头开始，充分利用了每项技术提供的潜力。

Then we realized that the competitive product only used 1,800 parts while our product employed 2,800. The difference in the number of the parts perfectly explained the difference in cost. The surprising element in all of this was that a lower number of parts was achieved by the competition by utilizing technologies that were developed by our client over the last 10 years. The problem was that our client had patched each one of its newly developed technologies into an old platform, which resulted in a complex and inefficient product, whereas the competition started from a clean slate and took full advantage of the potentials that each technology offered.

这个故事的寓意是，人们应该时不时地停下来反思一下自己，然后重新开始。

The moral of this story is that once in a while one should pause and reflect on oneself and begin anew.

惰性是所有延迟对技术突破做出反应的二级倾向和行为的根源。例如，大陆罐头公司的惰性为两片罐技术取代三片罐技术提供了机会，并摧毁了曾经强大的大陆罐头公司。全美 500 家工厂和 45% 的三片罐市场份额无法阻止对两片罐技术的延迟反应在不到三年的时间内摧毁大陆罐头公司。

Inertia is responsible for all of the second level tendencies and behaviors that delay reactions to technological breakthroughs. For example, sheer inertia by the Continental Can Company provided the opportunity for two-piece can technology to replace the three-piece can technology and destroy the once mighty Continental Can. Five hundred factories all over the United States and 45% share of the three-piece can market could not prevent a delayed reaction to two-piece technology from destroying Continental Can in fewer than three years.

讽刺的是，一家公司未能对重大技术突破作出反应的可能性与它在之前占主导地位的技术上取得的成功程度成正比。换句话说，一家公司在某项技术上取得的成功越多，它对变革前景的抵制就越强烈。最初的反应总是拒绝。面对不可否认的事件，我们确实具有惊人的拒绝能力，但真正的危险出现在公司最终决定修补时。修补浪费了宝贵的时间。它为竞争对手提供了传播新技术和主导市场的机会。此外，修补增加了运营成本，降低了产出质量，造成了双重危险。

Ironically, the likelihood that an organization will fail to respond to a critical technological break is directly proportional to the level of success it had achieved in a previously dominant technology. In other words, the more success an organization has with a particular technology, the higher its resistance to the prospect of change. The initial reaction is always denial. We do have an amazing capacity for denial in the face of undeniable events, but the real danger arises when the organization finally decides to patch things up. Patching wastes critical time. It provides the competition with a window of opportunity to disseminate the new technology and dominate the market. Patching, moreover, increases the cost of the operation and reduces the quality of the output, producing a double jeopardy.

夸大其词——认为“X”好，那么“X”就更好——是第三级流程的核心，它有效地摧毁了已证实的竞争优势。将自己的优势发挥到极致的倾向会将优势转化为破坏性的弱点。不幸的是，许多故事都遵循同样的思路：成功的秘诀受到推崇，塑造它的英雄或女英雄成为唯一的权威。只有一个正确答案占上风。日益单一的文化产生了越来越少的替代方案和一条狭窄的胜利之路。这有限的一套重新定义了企业文化、假设、前提和常识，这些限制或框定了公司对自身及其行业的理解，并推动了其竞争战略。

Exaggeration — the fallacy that if “X” is good more “X” is even better — is at the core of the third level processes that effectively destroy a proven competitive advantage. A tendency to push one's strength to its limits transforms the strength into a destructive weakness. Unfortunately, many stories follow the same line: a winning formula gains adulation, and the heroes or heroines who shaped it become the sole authorities. One right answer prevails. An increasingly monolithic culture produces an ever-decreasing set of alternatives and a narrow path to victory. This limited set redefines the corporate culture, the assumptions, the premises, and the common wisdom that bounds or frames a company's understanding of itself and its industry and drive its competitive strategy.

改变游戏规则或改变问题，是将成功转化为失败的反直觉过程的核心。换句话说，成功地玩游戏会改变游戏本身。未能认识到一个人成功的后果和坚持玩好老游戏是造成悲剧的原因。一旦取得成功，或问题得到有效解决，与该问题相关的问题就会受到不可逆转的影响。解决问题会改变它并产生一系列全新的问题。这就是为什么竞争的基础会发生变化，一旦遇到竞争挑战，就会出现新的竞争游戏。

Change of the game, or transformation of the problem, is at the heart of a counterintuitive process that converts success into failure. In other words, the act of playing a game successfully changes the game itself. Failure to appreciate the consequences of one's success and tenacity in playing the good old game are what create tragedies. Once success is achieved, or a problem is effectively dissolved, the concerns associated with that problem are irreversibly affected. Dissolving a problem transforms it and generates a whole new set of concerns. That is why the basis for competition changes and a new competitive game emerges as soon as a competitive challenge is met.

在第三和第四层次的过程中，成功的作用截然不同。当成功被夸大时（第三层次），它就会与解决方案的性质背道而驰，并削弱其有效性。相比之下，成功应对挑战（第四层次）会改变问题的性质。换句话说，它改变了游戏规则。亨利·福特成功制造出批量生产机器，有效地解决了生产问题。对生产的熟悉关注被对市场的陌生关注所取代。曾经独一无二的批量生产能力因广泛的模仿而失去了优势。这一事件将竞争游戏从对生产的关注转变为对市场的关注，这需要管理多样性和增长的能力。

The role of success is quite different in the third and fourth level processes. When it is exaggerated (third level), success works against the nature of the solution and diminishes its effectiveness. By contrast, success in handling a challenge (fourth level) transforms the nature of the problem. In other words, it changes the game. Henry Ford's success in creating a mass production machine effectively dissolved the production problem. A familiar concern for production was replaced with an unfamiliar concern for markets. The once unique ability to mass-produce lost its advantage through widespread imitation. This event changed the competitive game from concern for production to concern for markets, which required an ability to manage diversity and growth.

亨利·福特拒绝承认自己成功的意义，也不愿意玩新游戏（“只要是黑色，什么颜色都可以”），这让通用汽车公司的阿尔弗雷德·斯隆有机会主宰汽车行业。斯隆基于产品的分部结构概念被证明是一种管理增长和多样性的有效设计。美国企业巧妙地学习和玩弄了新游戏，成为世界其他国家效仿的基准（沃马克，1990 年）。

Henry Ford's refusal to appreciate the implication of his own success and his unwillingness to play the new game (“they can have any color as long as it is black”) gave Alfred Sloan of GM the opportunity to dominate the automotive industry. Sloan's concept of product-based divisional structure turned out to be an effective design for managing growth and diversity. The new game, artfully learned and played by corporate America, became the benchmark for the rest of the world to copy (Womack, 1990).

但美国企业界过于陶醉于自身的成功，甚至没有注意到新游戏的出现。这种疏忽为日本提供了一个发起缓慢但有效挑战的机会。新游戏的阴险演化方式凸显了系统动力学的另一个重要原理，青蛙的故事就是一个例证，它快乐地坐在逐渐变热的水中，最后被煮死。

But corporate America was too overwhelmed and overjoyed by its own success to even notice the emergence of the new game. This inattentiveness provided Japan with an opportunity to launch a slow but effective challenge. The insidious manner in which the new game evolved underscores another important principle of systems dynamics, which is exemplified by the story of the frog that boiled to death by sitting happily in water that gradually grew hotter.

政治领域也存在着这种游戏规则转变的例子。海湾战争的成功虽然使布什总统的支持率达到了前所未有的水平，但却无意中让他输掉了大选。他的外交政策的胜利使得国家将关注点从国家安全转移到国内经济。未能理解这一转变的含义，将成功变成了失败。

Examples of the change of the game can also be found in politics. Although the success of the Persian Gulf War boosted the approval rating of President Bush to an unprecedented level, it inadvertently cost him the election. The triumph of his foreign policy caused the nation to shift its concern from national security to domestic economy. Failure to understand the implication of this change converted the success to failure.

认识到成功可以改变游戏规则，想想信息技术的巨大成功意味着什么。成功标志着信息时代的终结。竞争优势正日益从获取信息转向创造知识，最终转向获得理解。

Recognizing that success changes the game, think what the phenomenal success of information technology means. Success marks the beginning of the end of the Information Era. Competitive advantage is increasingly shifting away from having access to information to generating knowledge and, finally, toward gaining understanding.

模仿、惰性、次优化和游戏规则改变的累积效应最终体现为第五种力量——范式转变。

The cumulative effects of imitation, inertia, suboptimization, and change of the game ultimately manifest themselves in the fifth force — a shift of paradigm.

范式转变可以通过积极的学习和忘却过程有目的地发生。更常见的情况是，它是对一系列事件导致传统智慧失效而产生的挫败感的反应。面对一系列无法​​再忽视或否认的矛盾和/或越来越多的困境，而主流思维模式不再能提供令人信服的解释，大多数人都承认主流范式已不再有效，其潜在能力已耗尽。

A shift of paradigm can happen purposefully by an active process of learning and unlearning. It is more common that it is a reaction to frustration produced by a march of events that nullify conventional wisdom. Faced with a series of contradictions that can no longer be ignored or denied and/or an increasing number of dilemmas for which prevailing mental models can no longer provide convincing explanations, most people accept that the prevailing paradigm has ceased to be valid and that it has exhausted its potential capacity.

最终，需要少数人拥有非凡的勇气来质疑传统智慧并指出其中的第一个裂缝。由此开始了一场痛苦的斗争，其最终结果是将关键变量重新概念化为具有其自身新逻辑的新整体。

Eventually, it takes the exceptional courage of a few to question the conventional wisdom and point to the first crack in it. Thus begins a painful struggle whose end result is reconceptualization of critical variables into a new ensemble with a new logic of its own.

第一个转变使我们有能力将组织视为一个多元化的社会文化体系，一个由有目的的成员自愿组成的协会，这些成员聚集在一起，通过满足环境需求来服务自己。

The first shift results in the ability to see the organization as a multi-minded, sociocultural system, a voluntary association of purposeful members who have come together to serve themselves by serving a need in the environment.

第二个转变帮助我们看透混乱和复杂性，并学会如何处理一组相互依赖的变量。不了解这种双重变化的重要性会导致过度的结构冲突、焦虑、无能为力的感觉和对变革的抵制。不幸的是，尽管有各种相反的言论，但现行的组织结构旨在阻止变革。主流文化默认不断地重复同样的非解决方案。这就是为什么企业转型的经历如此令人沮丧。组织假设的隐性是组织集体记忆的核心，它具有压倒性的力量。这些假设被信仰所接受，变成了可能阻碍未来的不容置疑的做法。除非这些隐含的文化代码的内容和含义被明确化和拆除，否则，无论干预的意图多么好，野兽的本质都会比干预的暂时效果更持久。

The second shift helps us see through chaos and complexity and learn how to deal with an interdependent set of variables. Failure to appreciate the significance of this dual change results in excessive structural conflict, anxiety, a feeling of impotency, and resistance to change. Unfortunately, prevailing organizational structures, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, are designed to prevent change. Dominant cultures by default keep reproducing the same non-solutions all over again. This is why the experience with corporate transformation is so fraught with frustration. The implicitness of the organizing assumptions, residing at the core of the organization's collective memory, is overpowering. Accepted on faith, these assumptions are transformed into unquestioned practices that may obstruct the future. Unless the content and implications of these implicit, cultural codes are made explicit and dismantled, the nature of the beast will outlive the temporary effects of interventions, no matter how well intended.

每种模式都有自己独特的组织模式，每种组织模式都因其对特定人才的要求而产生了自己的小圈子和特权成员。这些成员往往将自己的特权转化为权力和影响力。成功的程度越高，维持现有秩序的风险就越大，对变革的阻力就越大。不幸的是，无法改变过时的组织模式对于公司的生存能力来说就像错过技术突破对于产品线的生存能力一样悲惨。

Each paradigm has its own unique mode of organization, and every mode of organization, by virtue of its requirement for specific talents, creates its own clique and privileged members. These members often translate their privileges into power and influence. The higher the level of success, the greater the stake in continuing an existing order and the higher the resistance to change. Unfortunately, the inability to change an outdated mode of organization is as tragic for the viability of a corporation as the consequence of missing a technological break is for the viability of a product line.

开放性意味着，只有在其环境的背景下，才能理解生命（开放）系统的行为。世界确实是一个复杂的互动整体。因此，即使是对人性的真正探究，如对自由的热爱、对权力的渴望和对幸福的追求，都是抽象的概念，如果脱离其所属的背景或文化，就无法有意义地去理解。

Openness means that the behavior of living (open) systems can be understood only in the context of their environment. The world is, indeed, a complex whole in interaction. Therefore, even genuine inquiries regarding human nature, such as the love of liberty, lust for power, and search for happiness, are abstractions that cannot be meaningfully entertained when separated from the context, or the culture of which they are a part.

我们可以有些无助地观察到，“一切”都依赖于“其他一切”，并得出结论，我们不应该扰乱“事物的自然秩序”，我们最好把一切交给掌控一切的“唯一者”手中。

We can observe, somewhat helplessly, that “everything” depends on “everything else,” concluding that we should not mess around with “the natural order of things” and that we may be better off leaving everything in the hands of the “One” who has control over all.

我们的第一个突破是认识到，尽管一切都依赖于其他一切，但这些“一切”可以分为两类：那些可以以某种方式控制的元素和那些无法控制的元素。这种区别为我们提供了系统、环境和系统边界的操作定义。

Our first break came by recognizing that although everything depends on everything else, this “everything” can be grouped into two categories: those elements that somehow can be controlled and those that cannot. This distinction gave us an operational definition of the system, environment, and system boundary.

因此，系统由所有可由参与参与者控制的交互变量集组成。同时，环境由所有那些虽然会影响系统行为但无法由系统控制的变量组成。因此，系统边界成为一种任意的、主观的构造，由参与参与者的利益和能力和/或权威水平定义。

The system therefore consists of all of the interactive sets of variables that could be controlled by participating actors. Meanwhile, the environment consists of all those variables that, although affecting the system's behavior, could not be controlled by it. The system boundary thus becomes an arbitrary, subjective construct defined by the interest and the level of the ability and/or authority of the participating actors.

然后出现了第二个突破。我们发现，尽管环境变量的行为不可控，但或多或​​少是可以预测的。在大多数情况下，环境变量越难控制，就越容易预测。

Then a second break came along. We discovered that the behavior of the variables in the environment, although uncontrollable, is more or less predictable. In most cases, the less controllable a contextual variable, the more predictable it becomes.

控制意味着某种行为对于产生预期结果而言是必要且充分的。影响则意味着该行为并不充分，它只是一种附带因素。

To control means that an action is both necessary and sufficient to produce the intended outcome. To influence means that the action is not sufficient; it is only a coproducer.

然而，随着我们对环境的了解不断增加，我们将不可控变量转化为可影响变量的能力也不断增强。随着我们影响变量的能力不断增强，我们预测变量的能力也不断减弱。如果祈雨舞对天气有任何影响，我们就无法预测天气了。讽刺的是，我们预测天气的能力之强表明我们可能没有正确地进行祈雨舞。

As our knowledge about the environment increased, however, so did our ability to convert the uncontrollable variables to those that could be influenced. As we increased our ability to influence a variable, we decreased our ability to predict it. If a rain dance had any influence on the weather, we would not be able to predict the weather. Ironically, the extent to which we are able to predict the weather is an indication that we might not be performing the rain dance properly.

顾客过去是可以预测的，但无法控制的。我们被告知他们总是对的。他们越来越容易受到影响，因此越来越难以预测。似乎书呆子正在接管一切。老板也变得奇怪和难以预测。

Customers used to be predictable, but uncontrollable. We were told they were always right. Increasingly, they are becoming more and more susceptible to influence and therefore are less and less predictable. It seems that the nerds are taking over. The boss has become weird and unpredictable as well.

供应商曾经是最听话的群体。他们按照吩咐行事。如今他们声称掌握着核心技术。谁在控制着计算机行业？并不是 IBM 这样的大型系统公司在掌控着一切；而是零部件制造商，也就是微软和英特尔，他们有更多发言权，而且很有可能才是控制者。

Suppliers used to be the most agreeable group. They did what they were told. Today they claim to house the core technology. Who is in control of the computer industry? It is not the big system houses like IBM that are in charge; it is the component builders, the Microsofts and Intels of the world, that have much more to say and are, in all likelihood, the ones in control.

慢慢地，我们意识到我们实际上无法控制很多事情，但却有能力影响很多事情。我真的不知道我身上有多少是我，又有多少是我爱的人。因此，管理一个系统越来越多地意味着管理它的交易环境，也就是向上管理。因此，领导力被定义为影响那些我们无法控制的人的能力。

Slowly, we are realizing that we do not actually control much of anything, but do have the ability to influence many things. I do not really know how much of me is me and how much is those I love. Managing a system is therefore more and more about managing its transactional environment, that is, managing upward. Leadership is therefore defined as the ability to influence those whom we do not control.

作为开放的（生命）系统，社会群体（如组织）表现出同样的趋势，即朝着预先定义的秩序发展。因此，文化代码成为生物 DNA 的社会等价物，这些隐藏的假设深深扎根于我们集体记忆的核心。如果任由这些内部代码自组织，它们默认充当组织原则，不可避免地会重现现有秩序。

As open (living) systems, social groups such as organizations exhibit the same tendency, a movement toward a predefined order. Therefore, the cultural code becomes the social equivalent of biological DNA, those hidden assumptions deeply anchored at the very core of our collective memory. Left to be self-organized, these internal codes, by default, act as organizing principles that invariably reproduce the existing order.

总结一下主要观点，我的观点如下：

To summarize the major points, I have argued the following:

以下例子更清楚地解释了选择的概念。我的女儿杰兰只有五岁，她经常在床上跳来跳去。我对她说：“杰兰，如果我是你，我就不会这么做。”她无辜地看着我，回答说：“不，我不这么认为。如果你是我，你就会做我正在做的事情。你不知道这有多令人兴奋。”

The following examples explains this notion of choice with much more clarity. My daughter Jeyran was only five and jumping up and down on our bed. I said to her, “Jeyran, I would not do that if I were you.” Giving me an innocent look, she replied, “No, I don't think so. If you were me, you would be doing exactly what I'm doing. You don't know how exciting this is.”

事实上，在寻找这一理由的过程中，我学到了职业生涯中最重要的一课：市场经济和民主一样，只会做出理性的选择。获胜者不一定是最好的，而是那些与现有秩序最相容的人。领先于时代有时比落后更悲惨。

Actually, in trying to find this rationale, I learned the most important lesson of my professional life: market economies, like democracies, make only rational choices. The winners are not necessarily the best, but those who are most compatible with the existing order. Being ahead of your time is sometimes more tragic than falling behind.

福特基金会在印度的节育项目的故事让我大开眼界。在一次对印度的工作访问中，我的高级合伙人拉斯·阿科夫会见了一些试图向印度人传授计划生育和节育知识的美国人。他们没有成功，并对该项目未能产生任何结果感到沮丧。“印度人是非理性的，”项目经理告诉拉斯。“他们知道人口是他们的头号敌人，而我们在这里教他们节育，给他们所需的所有避孕药具，外加一台晶体管收音机作为奖励。但看看发生了什么。他们回家，打开收音机，在音乐中生下一个新婴儿。”拉斯建议他们不能简单地将这种行为视为非理性，而应该寻找其他解释。项目经理随后拿出一份报纸剪报，报道一名印度妇女生下了她的第 27 个孩子，并补充说：“如果这不是非理性的，那我不知道什么是非理性！”

The story of the Ford Foundation's birth control project in India was another eye-opener for me. During a working visit to India, my senior partner, Russ Ackoff, met a number of Americans trying to teach family planning and birth control to Indians. They were not succeeding and were frustrated over the program's failure to produce any results. “Indians are irrational,” the project manager told Russ. “They know population is their number-one enemy, and here we are teaching them control, giving them all the contraceptives they need, plus a transistor radio as a reward. But look what happens. They go home, turn the radio on, and with music make a new baby.” Russ suggested that they simply could not dismiss this behavior as irrational and should be looking for other explanations. The project manager then produced a newspaper clipping in which it was reported that an Indian woman had given birth to her 27th child, adding “If this isn't irrational then I don't know what irrational is!”

那么，谁不理智呢？那对通过参加讲座获得免费晶体管收音机的印度夫妇？还是那位认为只要给一对夫妇一台晶体管收音机就能让他们放弃退休生活的福特基金会人士？

Now who was irrational? The Indian couple who got a free transistor radio by attending a lecture? Or the Ford Foundation guy who thought he could get a couple to give up their retirement by giving them a transistor radio?

沃顿商学院的同事兼朋友阿隆·卡特塞伦博伊根教授喜欢用国际象棋中的情节来解释有趣的社会现象。我曾经问过他，为什么大多数国际象棋选手都喜欢和比自己厉害得多的人一起下棋。“这是挑战，”他回答道。“如果获胜伴随着真正的挑战，那就会很有趣。”

A colleague and friend at the Wharton School, Professor Aron Katselenenboigen, liked to use episodes in chess to explain interesting social phenomena. I once asked him why a majority of chess players like to play with those who are much better at the game than themselves. “It's the challenge,” he replied. “Winning is fun if it's associated with a real challenge.”

我在沃顿商学院的 10 名研究生中测试了这个理论。我们有一个计算机程序，可以进行九个不同级别的国际象棋对弈。第一级非常简单。任何具有国际象棋基础知识的人都可以毫无困难地获胜。然而，更高级别的挑战性要大得多。例如，要在第六级获胜，就需要相当的熟练程度。每个学生都被告知，他/她可以进行 10 场他/她想要的任何级别的比赛；每赢一局他/她将获得一美元，每输一局他/她必须退还一美元。

I tested this theory with 10 of my graduate students at Wharton. We had a computer program that could play chess at nine different levels. Level one was very simple. Anyone with a basic knowledge of chess could win with no difficulty. However, the higher levels posed a much greater challenge. Winning at level six, for example, required considerable mastery. Each student was told that he/she could play 10 games at any level he/she wanted; for every game won he/she would receive a dollar, and for every game lost he/she would have to give back a dollar.

所有学生都是从第一级开始的，但赢了几美元后就都晋级了。到比赛结束时，大多数人都晋级到了第五级，其中两人甚至晋级到了第六级。

All the students started at level one, but after winning a few dollars all moved to higher levels. By the finishing time most were playing at level five, and two were even at level six.

如果我们的决策标准中没有好挑战带来的兴奋感，生活就会变得无聊。换句话说，设定和寻求可实现的目标是一种平庸的生活。这可能会让许多“人力资源经理”感到惊讶，但它肯定解释了企业生活中大部分环节的无聊和无意义。

If the excitement of a good challenge were not part of our decision criteria, life would be a bore. In other words, setting and seeking attainable goals is a banal existence. This may come as a surprise to many “human resource managers,” but for sure it explains the boredom and meaninglessness associated with huge segments of corporate life.

与理性选择不同，理性选择反映的是工具性（外在）价值观，而情感维度则涉及风格性（内在）价值观。情感是从情绪状态本身中获得的享受和满足。理性选择厌恶风险，而情感选择则不然。风险是刺激和挑战的重要属性。

In contrast to rational choice, which reflects on instrumental (extrinsic) values, the emotional dimension deals with stylistic (intrinsic) values. It is the enjoyment and satisfaction derived from the emotional state in and of itself. While rational choice is risk aversive, emotional choice is not. Risk is an important attribute of excitement and challenge.

有目的的系统是价值导向的系统；换句话说，价值观是有目的的行为所要努力实现的目标。这些价值观往往隐含在文化中，决策者甚至不知道自己有选择权。默认价值观通常被视为现实；只要没有人愿意挑战它们，它们就会一直存在。

Purposeful systems are value-guided systems; in other words, values are what purposeful behaviors strive to achieve. More often than not, these values are implicit in the culture, and the decision maker is not even aware that she/he has a choice. Default values are usually treated as realities out there; and they will remain out there as long as no one is willing to challenge them.

状态维持系统是一种在不同环境条件下对变化作出反应以维持其状态的系统。这样的系统可以作出反应（而不是响应），因为在给定系统结构的情况下，所做的完全由其环境的变化决定。尽管如此，它还是通过在不同条件下以不同的方式维持其状态来执行内在功能。例如，许多加热系统都是状态维持的。当室温低于所需水平时，内部控制器会打开系统，而当温度高于此水平时，则会关闭系统。维持的状态是室温。这样的系统能够适应变化，但无法学习，因为它无法选择其行为。它无法通过经验改进。

A state-maintaining system is one that reacts to changes to maintain its state under different environmental conditions. Such a system can react (not respond) because what is done is determined entirely by the change in its environment, given the structure of the system. Nevertheless, it performs an intrinsic function by maintaining its state in a different way under different conditions. For example, many heating systems are state-maintaining. An internal controller turns the system on when the room temperature goes below a desired level, then turns it off when the temperature goes above this level. The state maintained is the room temperature. Such a system is able to adapt to change but is not capable of learning, because it cannot choose its behavior. It cannot improve with experience.

目标寻求系统是指能够对相同或不同环境中的不同事件做出不同反应，直至产生特定结果（状态）的系统。产生这种状态是其目标。这样的系统可以选择手段，但不能选择目的；因此，它是响应性的，而不是被动的。响应是自愿的，而反应不是。例如，低级动物可以在相同或不同的环境中以不同的方式寻找食物。如果目标寻求系统具有记忆，它可以随着时间的推移学会更有效地追求其目标。

A goal-seeking system is one that can respond differently to different events in the same or a different environment until it produces a particular outcome (state). Production of this state is its goal. Such a system has a choice of means but not of ends; hence it is responsive rather than reactive. Response is voluntary; reaction is not. For example, lower level animals can seek food in different ways in the same or a different environment. If a goal-seeking system has memory it can learn to pursue its goal more efficiently over time.

有目的的系统不仅可以在相同环境中以不同方式产生相同结果，还可以在相同和不同环境中产生不同结果。它可以在恒定条件下改变其目的。这种在恒定条件下改变目的的能力是自由意志的体现。这样的系统不仅可以学习和适应；它们还可以创造。人类就是这种系统的例子。

A purposeful system is one that can produce not only the same outcomes in different ways in the same environment but also different outcomes in both the same and different environments. It can change its ends under constant conditions. This ability to change ends under constant conditions is what exemplifies free will. Such systems not only learn and adapt; they can also create. Human beings are examples of such systems.

目的性系统具备目标寻求系统和状态维持系统的所有能力，而目标寻求系统则具备状态维持系统的能力，反之则不然。

Purposeful systems have all the capabilities of goal-seeking and state-maintaining systems. Meanwhile, goal-seeking systems have the capabilities of state-maintaining systems, although the converse is not true.

这引出了我们下一个讨论：多维性原则。

This brings us to the next discussion: the principle of multidimensionality.

对于大多数文化来说，谬误主导了人们将对立倾向视为零和博弈中的二元性。一切似乎都是一对对立的：安全/自由、秩序/复杂、集体/个性、现代/传统、艺术/科学等等。它们被置于这样一种对立中：一方的胜利必然与另一方的失败相关。

For the majority of cultures, a fallacy has dominated the treatment of opposing tendencies as a duality in a zero-sum game. Everything seems to come in a pair of opposites: security/freedom, order/complexity, collectivity/individuality, modernity/tradition, art/science, and so on. They are cast in such a way that a win for one is invariably associated with a loss for the other.

此外，考虑一下安全与自由之间的关系。一个人如果没有安全，就不可能自由；一个人如果没有自由，就不可能安全。也许自由、正义和安全是同一事物的三个方面，本来就不应该分开。当然，孤立地看待它们是有问题的。

Furthermore, consider the relation between security and freedom. One cannot be free if one is not secure; one will not be secure if one is not free. Maybe freedom, justice, and security are three aspects of the same thing and were not meant to be separated in the first place. Certainly, treating them in isolation has been problematic.

这是一种非零和博弈，一方的损失并不一定意味着另一方的收益；相反，两种相反的趋势可以同时增加或减少。

This is a non-zero-sum formulation in which a loss for one side is not necessarily a gain for the other; on the contrary, both opposing tendencies can increase or decrease simultaneously.

使用多维表示，人们可以看到以前被视为二分法的趋势如何相互作用并整合成某种全新的东西。增加新的维度使我们能够发现新的参考框架，在这些参考框架中，可以用新的整体和新的逻辑来解释对立的趋势。

Using a multidimensional representation, one can see how the tendencies previously considered as dichotomies can interact and be integrated into something quite new. The addition of new dimensions makes it possible to discover new frames of reference in which opposing sets of tendencies can be interpreted in a new ensemble with a new logic of its own.

请注意，在经典逻辑中，矛盾是相对于领域的；添加新的维度会扩展领域并将矛盾转化为互补。

Note that in classical logic, contradictions are relative to a domain; adding a new dimension expands the domain and converts the contradictions to complementaries.

如果我每周赚 10 美元，我可能会吃一个汉堡包；如果我每周赚 20 美元，我可能会吃两个；如果我每周赚 30 美元，我可能会尝试吃三个。但是，如果我每周赚 1,000 美元，我不会吃 100 个汉堡包。我可能根本不吃汉堡包。因此，我的收入的量变在某个时候导致了我生活方式的质变。这就是低收入和高收入的区分点。

If I make $10 a week, I may eat one hamburger; with $20 I may have two; and with $30 I will try three. However, if I make $1,000 a week, I will not eat 100 hamburgers. I may not eat hamburgers at all. Therefore, a quantitative change in my income at some point has produced a qualitative change in my way of life. That is the point of distinction between the low and the high level of income.

只要人们认识到其基本的假设和局限性，类型学就可以显示多维系统的行为如何根据对一个或另一个维度的强调而产生显著差异。

Provided one is aware of their underlying assumptions and limitations, typologies can show how behavior of a multidimensional system differs significantly according to the emphasis on one or the other dimension.

高/高代表成熟系统的行为，通过变革寻求稳定。低/高反映出激进系统不惜一切代价寻求变革，但它可以是反动的，也可以是进步的，这取决于寻求变革的方向。另一方面，高/低代表保守的国家，倾向于维持现状，因此倾向于监管和妥协。但低/低是无政府状态，对变革和稳定关注度较低，反对任何形式的政府。

The high/high represents the behavior of a mature system, searching for stability through change. While the low/high reflects a radical system interested in change at any price, it can be reactionary or progressive, depending on the direction of the change sought. The high/low, on the other hand, represents a conservative state, preferring the status quo and, therefore, a tendency for regulation and compromise. But the low/low is anarchy with a low concern for change and a low concern for stability, opposed to government in any form.

因此，关注程度的不同组合（低或高）将产生不同的行为模式。每种模式都代表一种新的系统，其特征只有通过其自身才能理解。

Therefore, with different combinations of the levels of concern (low or high), different modes of behavior will emerge. Each mode represents a new system whose character can be understood only in its own right.

1.9 是家长式、平民主义的领导者，他们对人的关心基本上是对他们弱点的关心。因此，他/她扮演着保护者的角色。而 9.9 的领导者对人的关心主要源于对他们能力和个性的尊重。他/她扮演着不同的角色——激励者的角色。

The 1.9 is a paternalistic, populist leader, whose concern for people is basically a concern for their weaknesses. Therefore, he/she assumes a protective role. Meanwhile, the 9.9 is a leader whose main concern for people stems from a respect for their ability and individuality. He/she assumes a different role — that of a motivator.

我可以爱，但我的任何部分都不能爱。如果你把我分开，爱的现象就会消失。此外，爱不屈服于五种感觉中的任何一种。它没有颜色、声音或香气。它无法触摸或品尝。那么一个人如何衡量爱呢？当然，人们总是可以衡量爱的表现。“如果你爱我，为什么不打电话给我？”有人可能会说。

I can love, but none of my parts can love. If you take me apart, the phenomenon of love will be lost. Furthermore, love does not yield itself to any one of the five senses. It does not have a color, a sound, or an aroma. It cannot be touched or tasted. Then how does one measure love? Of course one may always measure the manifestation of love. “If you love me why don't you call me?” someone may say.

突现属性或 II 类属性是整体的属性，而不是部分的属性，并且不能从部分的属性中推导出来。然而，它们是相互作用的产物，而不是部分行为的总和，因此必须根据它们自己的术语来理解。此外，它们不屈服于五种感觉中的任何一种，也不能直接测量。如果需要测量，那么人们只能测量它们的表现形式。

Emergent, or type II, properties are the property of the whole, not the property of the parts, and cannot be deduced from properties of the parts. However, they are a product of the interactions, not a sum of the actions of the parts, and therefore have to be understood on their own terms. Furthermore, they do not yield to any one of the five senses and cannot be measured directly. If measurement is necessary, then one can measure only their manifestation.

因此，生命、爱情、幸福和成功不是一次性的命题；它们必须不断地重现。如果产生它们的过程终止，这些现象也将不复存在。它们甚至不能被储存或保存以备将来使用。当然，没有任何东西可以被视为理所当然。生命、爱情和幸福可能一时存在，下一刻就消失了。成功也是如此；它和爱情和幸福一样脆弱。

Therefore, life, love, happiness, and success are not one-time propositions; they have to be reproduced continuously. If the processes that generate them come to an end, the phenomena cease to exist as well. They cannot even be stored or saved for future use. And for sure, none can be taken for granted. Life, love, and happiness can be there one moment and gone the next. The same is true of success; it is just as vulnerable as love and happiness.

如果突现特性是持续过程的自发结果，那么要理解它们，就必须理解产生它们的过程。死亡是很自然的；活着才是奇迹。要让一个人活下去，需要数百个过程同时相互作用。那些试图将生命现象解释为单一事故的人并不知道自己在说什么。

If emergent properties are the spontaneous outcome of ongoing processes, then to understand them one has to understand the processes that generate them. Dying is very natural; staying alive is the miracle. It takes simultaneous interactions among hundreds of processes to keep someone alive. Those who try to explain the phenomenon of life as a single accident do not know what they are talking about.

如果成功是一种突发属性，那么它就必须是关于管理互动而不是行动。全明星队不一定是联盟中最好的球队，甚至可能输给同一联盟中的一支普通球队。一支获胜球队的特点不仅在于其球员的素质，还在于他们之间互动的质量。几年前，新奥尔良圣徒队在职业碗中有四名防守球员，但这并不意味着圣徒队拥有联盟中最好的防守。同年，达拉斯牛仔队赢得了超级碗，而没有任何防守球员进入职业碗。

If success is an emergent property, then it has to be about managing interactions rather than actions. An all-star team is not necessarily the best team in the league, and it might even lose to an average team in the same league. What characterizes a winning team is not only the quality of its players but also the quality of the interactions among them. A few years ago the New Orleans Saints football team had four defensive players in the Pro Bowl, but that did not mean the Saints had the best defense in the league. The same year, the Dallas Cowboys won the Super Bowl, without having any defensive players in the Pro Bowl.

各部分之间的兼容性及其相互加强的相互作用产生了一种共振，一种力量，这种力量将比各个部分产生的力的总和高出一个数量级。

The compatibility between the parts and their reinforcing mutual interactions creates a resonance, a force, which will be an order of magnitude higher than the sum of the forces generated by the separate parts.

另一方面，如果各部分不兼容，其产生的效果将小于整体所能产生的效果。同样，一个组织，根据其成员之间互动的性质，可以是一个增值系统，也可以是一个减值系统。

On the other hand, incompatibility among the parts will result in a less potent force than what the aggregate would have been able to produce. In the same way, an organization, depending on the nature of the interactions among its members, can be a value-adding or value-reducing system.

我曾在其他地方指出，组织的成功是产出、决策、学习与控制、成员资格和冲突管理这五个基本过程相互作用的产物。这些过程与财富、权力、知识、美和价值观的产生和传播相对应。

I have argued elsewhere that an organization's success is the product of the interactions among the five basic processes of throughput, decision making, learning and control, membership, and conflict management. These processes correspond with generating and disseminating wealth, power, knowledge, beauty, and values.

例如，要了解通用电气的成功，不能只看其收益和市场份额。在任何时候，人们都可能因为错误的原因而成功或失败。了解通用电气的组织流程（特别是决策、学习和测量系统）可能更好地解释其持续成功的原因。

For example, to understand the success of GE, one cannot simply look at its earnings and market shares. At any given time, one might win or lose for the wrong reasons. Understanding GE's organizational processes (specifically decision, learning, and measurement systems) may provide a better explanation for its continuous success.

我们说过，突发事件的性质无法直接测量；人们只能测量其表现形式。然而，测量现象的表现形式已被证明非常困难。

We have said that emergent properties cannot be measured directly; one can measure only their manifestations. However, measuring the manifestation of a phenomenon has proven very problematic.

例如，如果打电话的次数是衡量爱的标准，那么一个人可以假装爱。人们可以给别人打电话，但不一定爱他们。

For example, if the number of phone calls is the measure of love, then one can fake it. People can call people without necessarily loving them.

由于生物系统的大部分行为特征都属于 II 类特性，因此，近几十年来，伪造艺术一直是行为科学研究的重点。如何伪装成别人，一直是我们这个时代的赚钱问题。想想那些关于如何伪装成别人的书籍的巨大市场吧，这些书籍就许多主题提供建议，例如，如何在你完全不在乎别人的时候表现得像一个有爱心的人。还记得吗，只要戴一条红领带，你就可以假装自己很有权势？

Since most of the behavioral characteristics of living systems are type II properties, the art of faking has been the major preoccupation of behavioral sciences in recent decades. How one can pretend to be something that one is not has been the money-making question of our times. Consider the huge market for how-to books, which give advice on a multitude of topics such as how to come across as a caring person when one does not care at all. Remember when one could pretend to be powerful simply by wearing a red tie?

衡量一个组织的成功也并非易事。作为成功的体现，增长被视为衡量组织绩效的重要指标。如果一个组织成功，它很可能会增长；但是，如果一个组织正在增长，这并不一定意味着它成功。人们可以通过“假装”或糟糕的收购轻松实现增长。但不幸的是，两只火鸡不会变成一只老鹰。这正是许多组织成长后最终自我毁灭的原因。

Measuring the success of an organization has not been an easy proposition, either. As the manifestation of success, growth has been considered an important performance measure of an organization. If an organization is successful, most probably it will grow; however, if an organization is growing, this does not necessarily mean that it is successful. One can easily grow by “faking,” or making lousy acquisitions. But unfortunately, two turkeys will not make an eagle. And that is exactly how many organizations have grown, only to destroy themselves.

为了避免在衡量新兴属性时出现陷阱，我们必须衡量不止一种表现形式。在这种情况下，经济增加值 (EVA) 是衡量过去成功的更可靠指标，而不是简单的增长。

To avoid pitfalls in measuring an emergent property, one has to measure more than one manifestation. In this context, economic value added (EVA) is a much more reliable measure of past success than simple growth.

EVA 是基于成功的两个重要表现。它是增长和资本成本之上的价值创造的产物。正 EVA 表示增值增长，而负 EVA 表示减值增长。

EVA is based on two important manifestations of success. It is the product of both growth and value generation over and above the cost of capital. A positive EVA indicates a value-adding growth, while a negative EVA shows a value-reducing one.

最后，只有通过描绘特定系统当前行为中隐含的未来，才能评估现象的整体表现。要描绘未来，我们需要掌握社会动态。

Finally, manifestation of a phenomenon in its totality can be assessed only by picturing the future implicit in the present behavior of a given system. To map this future, we need a handle on social dynamics.

社会动态充满了违反直觉的行为。它的复杂程度超出了分析方法的范围。

Social dynamics is fraught with counterintuitive behavior. It stands on a level of complexity beyond the reach of analytical approach.

违反直觉的行为意味着，旨在产生预期结果的行为可能会产生相反的结果。有人说，通往地狱的道路是由善意铺就的。事情可能会先变得更糟，然后才变好，反之亦然。人们可能会因为错误的原因而获胜或失败。

Counterintuitive behavior means that actions intended to produce a desired outcome may generate opposite results. It has been said that the path to hell is paved with good intentions. Things can get worse before getting better, or vice versa. One can win or lose for the wrong reason.

禁止毒品虽然花费了国家一大笔钱，但其本意是为了遏制毒品滥用，拯救社会。然而与直觉相反的是，它却催生了数十亿美元的犯罪产业，增加了毒品消费，并让刑事司法系统不堪重负。

Making drugs illegal, while costing the nation a fortune, was meant to curb abuse and save the society from its ills. Counterintuitively, it has produced a multi-billion-dollar crime industry, higher consumption, and an overburdened criminal justice system.

要理解违反直觉行为的本质，​​人们需要理解以下断言的实际后果：

To appreciate the nature of counterintuitive behavior, one needs to understand the practical consequences of the following assertions:

扩大福利制度以减少社区贫困家庭的数量可能会适得其反，反而会增加贫困家庭的数量。改善福利通常需要额外的资源，这意味着增加税收。过度征税可能会迫使富人和许多企业迁出该地区，稀释税基并减少收入。

Expanding the welfare system to reduce the number of poor families in a community may, counterintuitively, increase their numbers. Improvement of welfare usually requires additional resources, which means an increase in taxes. Excessive taxation may push the wealthy and many businesses to move out of the region, diluting the tax base and reducing revenues.

所有这些意味着，要全面了解一项行动的短期和长期后果，就需要建立一个动态模型来模拟系统的多环、非线性特性。该模型应该捕捉关键的时间滞后和主要变量之间的相关相互作用。

All this means that understanding the short- and long-term consequences of an action, in its totality, requires building a dynamic model to simulate the multi-loop, nonlinear nature of the system. The model should capture the critical time lags and relevant interactions among major variables.

这种方法与传统方法截然不同，传统方法中，产生简单相关性的谬误是导致错误信息不断传播的原因。考虑到违反直觉的结果所造成的混乱程度，不难看出人们如何将其归因于宇宙的混乱性质。

This approach is distinctly different from the conventional one, where the fallacy of generating simple correlation is responsible for proliferating misinformation that is floated around continuously. Considering the level of confusion that exists around counterintuitive outcomes, it is not difficult to see how one might attribute them to the chaotic nature of the universe.

以下是我对混沌理论的相关和有趣观点的看法：

The following is my take on the relevant and interesting points of chaos theory:

四种吸引子决定了图案的性质：

Four kinds of attractors determine the nature of the patterns:

如果人们倾向于在社会背景下使用混沌术语，那么从系统角度来看，这四个吸引子可以解释如下。点吸引子代表社会生物追求其自然本能的行为——恐惧、爱、恨、分享欲望或自身利益。循环吸引子（辩证/自我维持）对应于我们的多维性原则，追求看似相反但互补的趋势：稳定与变化、安全与自由，以及一般而言的分化与整合。周期性或重点从一个方向周期性转移到另一个方向，是次优化的结果。环面吸引子（等效/负熵/目标寻求）体现了开放系统的行为。这些系统由它们应有的形象（DNA）引导，就像生物系统的生长模式一样。奇异吸引子（多目标/自组织/有目的的）反映了具有目的和手段选择的社会文化系统的行为；不可预测的模式源于有目的的演员的风格偏好。

If one is tempted to use chaos terminology in the social context, the four attractors, viewed from a systems perspective, can be explained as follows. The point attractors represent the behavior of social beings in pursuit of their natural instincts — fear, love, hate, desire to share, or self-interest. The cycle attractors (dialectic/self-maintaining) would correspond to our principle of multidimensionality, pursuit of seemingly opposite but complementary tendencies: stability and change, security and freedom, and, in general, differentiation and integration. Cyclicality, or periodic shift of emphasis from one orientation to another, is the result of suboptimization. Torus attractors (equifinal/neg-entropic/goal-seeking) exemplify the behavior of open systems. These systems are guided by the image (DNA) of what they ought to be, as growth patterns of biological systems. Strange attractors (multifinal/self-organizing/purposeful) reflect the behavior of sociocultural systems with choices of ends and means; unpredictable patterns emerge out of stylistic preferences of purposeful actors.

请注意，自组织并不总是有意识的行为。通常，它是默认发生的，或者通过偏差放大（进化）的随机迭代过程发生的。因此，如果自组织默认使用隐式文化代码发生，那么它更像是由环面吸引子产生的模式。然而，重新设计将是由奇异吸引子创建的自组织类型。

Note that self-organization is not always a conscious act. More often than not, it happens by default or through a random iterative process of deviation amplification (evolution). Therefore, self-organization, if it happens by default using implicit cultural codes, would be more like the patterns produced by a torus attractor. However, redesign would be the type of self-organization created by a strange attractor.

有了吸引子，迭代才有可能从混乱中产生秩序。大自然会自动创造迭代，但社会生物只有选择开始新的迭代才能回到零。从头开始设计就是这一要求的体现。

With attractors, it is the iteration that makes it possible for order to appear from chaos. Nature automatically creates the iteration, but social beings can return to zero only by choice to start a new iteration. Designing from a clean slate is a reflection of this imperative.

以下观察进一步证明了社会系统的违反直觉的行为：

Counterintuitive behavior of social systems is further exemplified by the following observations:

自组织，即朝着预定秩序前进，是描述社会文化系统本质的重要概念之一。这是所有四种当代理论所共有的概念：量子理论、生命系统理论、混沌理论和系统理论。

Self-organization, or the movement toward a predefined order, is one of the critical conceptions that describe the essence of sociocultural systems. This is a conception shared by all four contemporary theories: quantum theory, living systems theory, chaos theory, and systems theory.

混沌理论虽然名为混沌理论，但其认为趋向有序是一种自然现象，是由四种吸引子的作用产生的：点吸引子、循环吸引子、环面吸引子和奇异吸引子。混沌中存在着秩序，而混沌理论的目标是发现隐藏的秩序或负责创建混沌秩序的吸引子。

Despite its name, chaos theory considers the tendency toward order a natural phenomenon produced by the action of four types of attractors: point attractors, cycle attractors, torus attractors, and strange attractors. There is an order in chaos, and the objective of chaos theory is to discover the hidden order or the attractor responsible for creation of the chaotic order.

为了更好地理解这一概念的操作意义以及隐性文化代码在社会系统变革和动态过程中所发挥的关键作用，我们应该丰富对信息结合系统的本质特征和共享形象的基本功能的理解。

To appreciate the operational meaning of this conception and the critical role implicit cultural codes play in the process of change and dynamics of social systems, we ought to enrich our understanding of the essential characteristic of the information-bonded systems and the essential functions of shared image.

表征社会系统的要素不仅是其成员，而且是其成员彼此之间以及与整体之间的关系。这隐含在系统的定义中。如果要将总体视为系统，则必须假定要素之间存在某种联系。因此，重点不是关系的存在，而是关于关系性质的假设。这些关系反过来又取决于将系统组成部分连接在一起并保持在一起的纽带的性质。在这种情况下，机械系统中的纽带性质与社会文化系统中的纽带性质之间存在根本差异。

The elements that characterize a social system are not only its members, but also the relationship of its members to one another and to the whole. This is implicit in the definition of a system. Some kind of linkage between the elements is presupposed if the aggregate is to be considered a system. The point of emphasis, then, is not the existence of a relationship, but the assumptions regarding the nature of the relationship. These relationships in turn depend on the nature of the bonds that link and hold the components of the system together. In this context, there are fundamental differences between the nature of the bond in mechanical systems and those in sociocultural systems.

机械系统的元素是“能量结合的”，而社会文化系统的元素是“信息结合的”。在能量结合系统中，经典物理定律支配着元素之间存在的关系。各部分的整合是一次性的命题。将两块木板钉在一起，它们会一直保持这种状态，直到木头腐烂、钉子生锈或撬棍将它们分开。在机械系统中，零件必须具有被动和可预测的功能，直到某个零件损坏或施加足够强度的外力。但信息结合系统中主动部分的行为是不同的命题：将这些部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体是一场终生的斗争。想想维持婚姻、家庭或任何其他紧密联系的人类群体的挑战——每个人都有自己的想法——就会明白将成员整合到社会系统中的独特挑战。多思想社会文化系统的组织被认为是有目的的成员的自愿联合，其中的结合是通过二度协议（基于共同认知的协议）实现的。在一级协议中，参与者可能出于完全不同的原因同意采取某种行动。（伊朗左翼分子和伊斯兰主义者出于完全相反的原因同意推翻沙阿政权。）另一方面，二级协议要求就为什么问题达成一致。因此，在某些情况下，即使同意持不同​​意见，也可能被视为二级协议。

While the elements of mechanical systems are “energy-bonded,” those of sociocultural systems are “information-bonded.” In energy-bonded systems, laws of classical physics govern the relationship existing between the elements. Integration of the parts is a one-time proposition. Nail two boards together, and they stay that way until the wood rots, the nails rust, or a pry bar separates them. In mechanical systems passive and predictable functioning of parts is a must, until a part breaks down or an external force of sufficient strength is applied. But the behavior of active parts of an information-bonded system is a different proposition: integration of these parts into a cohesive whole is a lifetime struggle. Think about the challenges of maintaining a marriage, families, or any other close-knit group of human beings — each with a mind of his/her own — to appreciate the unique challenges of integrating the members in a social system. Organization of a multi-minded sociocultural system is considered a voluntary association of purposeful members in which the bonding is achieved by a second-degree agreement (an agreement based on a common perception). In first-degree agreements actors may agree on a course of action for completely different reasons. (The leftist and the Islamist in Iran agreed to topple the Shah's regime for completely opposite reasons.) Second-degree agreement, on the other hand, requires an agreement on the why question. Therefore, even agreeing to disagree, in certain situations, might be considered a second-degree agreement.

为了阐明信息结合系统的含义，我们需要更详细地研究文化和社会学习的概念。

To clarify the meaning of information-bonded systems, we need to examine the concepts of culture and social learning in more detail.

图像（本身就是一个美丽的设计）是环境和人类独特的创造过程共同产生的，它建立了人与环境之间的联系。它由一套关于时空因果现实性质的隐性假设系统组成，此外还包含价值观、美学和个人在环境中所扮演的角色的概念。

Coproduced by the environment and man's unique process of creativity, the image (itself a beautiful design) establishes a link between man and his environment. It consists of a system of implicit assumptions on the nature of spatio-temporal-causal realities, in addition to a concept of values, aesthetics, and one's perceived role in the environment.

尽管文化对于个人而言是先存的，但文化可以通过个人有目的的行为进行改变和再生产。发展的关键障碍和机遇就在这里——人们改变文化和重新创造他们想要的未来的集体能力和愿望。人类文化具有复杂性、模糊性和多种潜力，是变革过程的核心。这一变革过程只有在文化背景下才能理解，文化是文化的一部分，文化是文化的基础，文化是文化的反作用。这一过程根深蒂固，个人行为的成功总是取决于他们渗透和改变“共同形象”的程度。

Although culture pre-exists for individuals, it can be transformed and reproduced by their purposeful actions. It is here that the key obstacles and opportunities for development are found — the collective ability and desire of a people to transform their culture and re-create the future they want. Human culture with all its complexity, ambiguity, and manifold potentialities stands at the center of the process of change. This process of change cannot be understood except against the background of the culture of which it is a part, which it builds upon and reacts against. This process is so ingrained that the success of individual actions invariably depends on the degree to which they penetrate and modify the “shared image.”

文化的操作意义在于，文化充当默认决策系统。例如，如果你没有明确决定自己想成为哪种父母，文化就会替你做出决定。当人们反复使用默认值时，他们往往会忘记自己有选择权。相反，他们将这些价值观视为“现实”，从而破坏了这样一个事实：只要没有人愿意挑战它们，这些“现实”就会一直“存在”。问题在于，潜在假设的隐含性阻止了参与者质疑其有效性；因此，默认设置通常不受挑战，并变得过时。

Operational implications of culture lie in the fact that cultures act as default decision systems. For example, if you do not decide explicitly what kind of parent you want to be, the culture makes this decision for you. When people repeatedly use default values, they tend to forget that they have a choice. Instead, they treat such values as “realities out there,” undermining the fact that those “realities” will remain “out there” as long as no one is willing to challenge them. The problem is that the implicitness of the underlying assumptions prevents actors from questioning their validity; therefore, the defaults usually remain unchallenged and become obsolete.

文化的潜力和活力在于其应对不断涌现的欲望和理想的挑战的创造力。这一过程要求有意识地主动适应，而不是被动地接受事件。这是一场为创造新维度、欣赏新现实以及最终丰富共同形象而进行的斗争。这是一个学习过程，需要整个社会体系的动机、知识和理解的协调变化。

The potentiality and vitality of the culture lie in its creative ability to meet the challenges of continuously emerging desires and ideals. This process demands conscious and active adaptation, not a passive acceptance of events. It is a struggle for the creation of new dimensions, appreciation of new realities, and, finally, enrichment of the common image. It is a learning process that entails coordinated changes in motivation, knowledge, and understanding throughout the social system.

社会系统通过成员进行学习，成员通过绘制新现实并观察其行为的社会学习的实际或潜在结果来调整其世界观；然而，每个成员的学习总和是他们的集体、共享的学习。社会文化系统比其个体成员表现出更大的惰性和对变化的抵制。

Social systems learn through the members who adjust their worldviews by mapping new realities and observing the actual or potential results of their actions' social learning; however, the sum of each member's learning is their collective, shared learning. Sociocultural systems manifest greater inertia and resistance to change than their individual members.

当公众和私人形象充当过滤器，形成一种选择性接收模式时，文化的惰性就表现出来了。这个过程调整了特定信息的受体。那些与形象一致的信息会被吸收和强化，而那些与之矛盾和对抗的信息则不会产生显著的影响。这种现象虽然阻碍了变革，但却是一种防御机制和结构维护功能。从积极的一面来看，惰性有助于使文化具有弹性和可持续性。

The inertia of a culture is manifested when public and private images act as filters, developing a selective mode of reception. This process tunes the receptors for particular messages. Those consistent with the image are absorbed and reinforced, while contradictory and antagonistic ones have no significant effect. This phenomenon, although an impediment to change, acts as a defense mechanism and structure-maintaining function. Looking on the positive side, inertia helps to make cultures resilient and sustainable.

社会系统缺乏学习能力会导致其他重大困难。例如，随着系统变得越来越复杂，问题变得越来越深刻，科学与公众形象之间的脱节越来越严重，成为民主进程的困境，并仍然是其主要挑战。脱节发生在一个动态过程中，有多个分离阶段。一开始，由于真理通常与简单易懂联系在一起，因此人们不理解的东西就会被简单地视为错误的东西而拒绝接受。此外，科学的高度专业化使它远离了共同的形象，形成了一个小型的、孤立的亚文化。最终，一个无法传达其见解的科学亚文化的产生，削弱了科学在最需要的时候对广大公众行为的影响。

Failure of a social system to learn leads to other major difficulties. For instance, as systems become more sophisticated and problems become more profound, the increasing disconnection between science and the public image becomes the dilemma of the democratic process and remains its main challenge. The disconnection happens in a dynamic process with several stages of dissociation. At the outset, since truth is commonly identified with simplicity and comprehensibility, what one does not understand is simply rejected as false. Further, a high level of specialization in science moves it further away from the common image, creating a small, isolated subculture. Ultimately, creation of a scientific subculture that fails to communicate its insights reduces the influence of science on the behavior of the public at large at just the time when it may be needed most.

最近，我参与了一个社区发展项目，该项目旨在为所有利益相关者创造一个共同的愿景，我听到了以下说法：“普通人不理解这些花哨的概念。他们最好坚持他们理解的有形和熟悉的事物。”我的回答是“普通人之间的理解通常是发展过程的最终结果，而不是开始。如果普通人之间的理解成为引入“花哨”概念的先决条件，我向你保证，我们很快就会陷入平庸的最低水平。生活将继续设定和寻求可实现的目标，而这些目标很少会摆脱熟悉的界限。”

Recently involved with a community development project aimed at creating a shared vision of a desired future for all the stakeholders, I was confronted with the following statement: “Common people don't understand these fancy concepts. They would be better off sticking with tangible and familiar things they understand.” My answer was “Understanding among common people is usually the end result of a developmental process, not its beginning. If understanding among common people becomes a prerequisite for introducing a ‘fancy’ concept, I assure you that we will fast fall to the lowest level of banality. Life would proceed with setting and seeking attainable goals that would rarely escape the limits of the familiar.”

大多数发展过程中最大的障碍不是普通民众缺乏理解，而是所谓的专家缺乏共同理解。在普通民众中产生所需的理解水平总是比在专家中更容易，这不仅是因为他们没有自我意识问题，而且因为学习比忘记要简单得多。保护普通民众免受花哨概念影响的居高临下的神话现在已近乎蛊惑人心的艺术。

The greatest obstacle in most developmental processes is not so much a lack of understanding among common people as a lack of common understanding among the so-called experts. It has always been easier to generate required levels of understanding among common people than among experts, not only because they do not have an ego problem, but because learning is much simpler than unlearning. The patronizing myth of protecting common people from fancy concepts now borders on the art of demagoguery.

最后，社会制度成员害怕被排斥和强烈的趋同倾向也是社会变革的障碍。一个例子是一个禁酒县的经历，该县的选民将对禁酒令进行投票。投票前的调查显示，75% 的选民赞成废除禁令；然而，个别选民认为大多数人希望建立一个禁酒县。结果统计出来后，60% 的选民投票支持保持该县禁酒。毫不奇怪，在调查结果公布后，下一次投票中，65% 的多数人支持废除禁令。

Finally, fear of rejection and a strong tendency toward conformity among members of a social system are other obstructions to social change. An example is the experience of a dry county whose constituents were to vote on the alcohol ban. A pre-vote survey indicated that 75% of the voters favored abolishing the ban; however, the individual voters thought the majority wanted a dry county. When the results were tabulated, 60% of the voters had voted to keep the county dry. Not surprisingly, after the survey results were published, the next vote on the issue produced a 65% majority in favor of abolishing the ban.

回想一下，知识在社会系统中的作用类似于能量在物理系统中的作用。但与能量不同，知识不受“守恒定律”的约束。一个人不会因为与他人分享知识而失去知识；事实恰恰相反。学习和分享知识的能力使社会文化系统能够不断提高其更高层次的组织能力。这就是社会发展的意义所在。正是这种集体和共享的学习使社会能够通过相继在更高层次的秩序和复杂性上创造新的组织模式来重新设计自己。例如，在美国革命时期，十三个殖民地不再认为自己只是受英国控制的离散经济实体的集合或集合，而是开始认为自己是一个统一的成员群体，对他们共同的独立形象负责。统一和相互依存比殖民地地位具有更高的秩序和复杂性。

Recall that the role of knowledge in social systems is analogous to that of energy in physical systems. But unlike energy, knowledge is not subject to the “law of conservation.” One does not lose knowledge by sharing it with others; the opposite is true. The ability to learn and share knowledge enables sociocultural systems to continuously increase their capacity for higher levels of organization. This is what social development is all about. It is this collective and shared learning that enables societies to redesign themselves by successively creating new modes of organization at higher levels of order and complexity. For example, at the time of the American Revolution, the thirteen colonies ceased to think of themselves as simply an aggregate or collection of discrete economic entities beholden to England and began to think of themselves as a unified group of members accountable to their shared image of independence. Unification and interdependence are higher levels of order and complexity than colonial status.

创建新的组织模式需要文化转型。更具体地说，它需要改变组织原则的默认值。但挑战传统智慧是一个痛苦的过程。它要求质疑神圣的假设，并发展一种集体能力，将相关变量重新概念化为具有新特征的新整体。这是一个二阶学习过程，必须将其与一阶学习区分开来，在一阶学习中，决定替代方案选择的基本假设仍然没有受到挑战。另一方面，二阶学习涉及挑战假设。它代表了一种定性变化，可以确定一组新的替代方案和目标。二阶学习重新定义了一阶学习的规则，并为社会文化系统的有序转型和发展提供了条件。商业传说中充斥着质疑假设如何带来创新和改变游戏规则的新行业的故事。弗雷德·史密斯质疑了关于如何投递邮件和包裹的默认假设，并创建了联邦快递。西南航空公司挑战了如何经营航空公司的隐性规则。在线学习挑战了传统学校教育受时间和空间限制的规则。

Creating a new mode of organization involves a cultural transformation. More specifically, it requires changing the default values of the organizing principles. But challenging the conventional wisdom is a painful process. It demands questioning the sacred assumptions and developing a collective ability to reconceptualize the relevant variables into a new ensemble with a new characterization of its own. This is a learning process of the second order, which must be distinguished from first-order learning where the underlying assumptions governing the selection of alternatives remain unchallenged. Second-order learning, on the other hand, involves challenging the assumptions. It represents a qualitative change that identifies a new set of alternatives and objectives. Second-order learning redefines the rules for first-order learning and provides for orderly transformation and development of sociocultural systems. Business lore is rife with stories of how questioning assumptions has led to innovation and game-changing new industries. Fred Smith questioned the default assumptions about how to deliver mail and packages and created Federal Express. Southwest Airlines challenged the implicit rules of how to run an airline. Online learning challenges the time- and space-bound rules of traditional schooling.

再次强调我们之前的断言，文化最重要的功能或许是充当生成预定义秩序的蓝图。此功能类似于计算机的操作系统。没有操作系统，计算机只是一个无用的盒子。没有可行且充满活力的文化，社会系统注定会失败。作为生命系统，社会文化系统必须拥有其应有的形象。这对于能够不断重新定位系统以更接近其预定义秩序是必要的。它们不仅朝着预定义秩序前进，而且还小心翼翼地守护着自己的个性。除非改变其存储的形象，否则社会系统几乎会无限期地自我复制。

To re-emphasize our previous assertion, perhaps the most significant function of the culture is serving as the blueprint for production of a predefined order. This function is similar to the operating system of a computer. Without an operating system a computer is simply a useless box. Without a viable and dynamic culture a social system is doomed. As living systems, sociocultural systems must possess an image of what they ought to be. This is necessary to be able to continuously reposition the systems to move closer to their predefined order. They not only move toward a predefined order, but also jealously guard their individualities. Unless their stored image is altered, social systems go on to replicate themselves almost indefinitely.

因此，共享形象是变革过程的核心。任何行动的成功都取决于它渗透和改变“共享形象”的程度。这就是为什么试图实现社会变革会充满挫折的原因。尽管变革推动者齐心协力，但旧的行为模式仍然胜利地复苏，这是不断令人沮丧的根源。似乎让这种顽固的叛乱如此势不可挡的事实是，一套组织原则（文化准则）使系统成为现在的样子并按照它的方式运作，这些原则是隐含的，而且往往被认为是神圣的。

The shared image, therefore, stands at the center of the process of change. The success of any action invariably depends on the degree to which it penetrates and modifies the “shared image.” That is why trying to effect social transformation is fraught with frustration. The triumphant resurgence of old patterns of behavior despite the concerted efforts of change agents is an uninterrupted source of frustration. What seems to make this stubborn insurgency so overpowering is the fact that a set of organizing principles (cultural codes) that make the system what it is and behave the way it does are implicit, and more often than not are considered to be sacred.

负责重建现有秩序的隐性文化代码子集就是我们比喻的“二阶机器”。二阶机器相当于混沌理论中的吸引子概念。要改变社会系统的行为模式，就需要挑战其基本假设。必须产生一组新的替代方案，并修改正在起作用的吸引子。那么，变化是如何进入社会系统的呢？

The subset of implicit cultural codes responsible for regenerating the existing order is what we metaphorically refer to as the “second-order-machine.” The second-order-machine is equivalent to the notion of an attractor in chaos theory. To produce a change in the behavioral pattern of a social system, its underlying assumptions need to be challenged. A new set of alternatives must be generated and the attractor in action must be modified. How, then, does change enter a social system?

据说，我们最关键的生存能力只能通过社会学习获得；这种社会学习能力——文化——有两个维度：

It has been said that our most critical survival ability can only be learned socially; this socially learned ability — culture — has two dimensions:

自组织、有目的的社会文化系统必须自我进化才能生存。它们不能被动地适应环境，而应该与环境共同进化。它们应该能够随着时间的流逝而改变互动规则。

Self-organizing, purposeful, sociocultural systems must be self-evolving to be viable. They cannot passively adapt to their environments but should co-evolve with them. They should be able to change the rules of interaction as they evolve over time.

要想生存下去，文化必须能够积极适应新兴现实。积极适应是一个二阶的反复学习过程，需要自由质疑神圣的假设。不幸的是，社会文化系统发展的主要障碍就在这里。许多传统社会的成员缺乏质疑任何神圣文化准则的自由。相反，大多数人受到传统势力的极大恐吓。在这样的制度下，质疑神圣习俗往往被视为侮辱，可判处死刑。但能够质疑神圣的假设而不必担心遭到报复，不仅是个人权利，也是必须不惜一切代价维护的必要社会利益。有时，恐吓力量对发展构成了巨大的阻碍，不惜一切代价将其消除可能是合理的。事实确实如此，即使是外部力量的悲剧性干预，如果导致根深蒂固的恐吓力量瓦解，也可能成为强大文化进化的转折点（日本和土耳其为这一论点提供了令人警醒的例子）。

To be viable, a culture must be capable of actively adapting to emerging realities. Active adaptation is an iterative learning process of the second order that demands freedom to question the sacred assumptions. Unfortunately, it is here that major obstructions for development of sociocultural systems are found. Members of many traditional societies lack the freedom to question any one of their sacred cultural codes. Instead, most are subject to enormous intimidation by traditional forces. Questioning a sacred practice is often treated as an insult and is punishable by death in such systems. But the ability to question sacred assumptions, without fear of repercussion, is not only an individual right but also a necessary social good that must be preserved at any price. Sometimes intimidating forces present such a monumental obstruction to development that paying any price to remove them might be justified. This is so true that even the tragic intervention of outside power, if it results in dissolving the entrenched intimidating forces, may prove to be a tipping point for potent cultural evolution (Japan and Turkey provide sobering examples for this argument).

另一方面，混乱秩序代表着一种看似稳定但却受挫的社会系统，可能会经历突然的、意想不到的变化。这种现象是由于小的干扰反馈到自身并产生巨大影响而产生的。任何系统的干扰在首次出现时都会受到抵制，但如果它经受住了第一次压制并与系统内预先存在的挫折产生共鸣，偏差放大的迭代过程就会开始。这就是一群受仇恨驱使、由家长式/魅力型领导人领导的受挫群众如何在欠发达的社会系统结构中产生惊人的变化。不幸的是，如果没有形成对理想未来的全面共同形象，混乱的斗争可能无法产生向自我进化、有目的的社会文化系统的转变。已经超越家长式文化安全网络的高度发达的社会文化系统的现实与仍然受困于这种文化局限的现实有着根本的不同。除非家长式的文化准则得到适当的挑战和修改，否则独裁统治者和疏远人民的重复模式将继续出现。（伊朗革命和苏联解体是最近的轶事证据。）

On the other hand, chaotic orders, representing a form of seemingly stable but frustrated social systems, may experience a sudden, unexpected change. This phenomenon is produced when a small disturbance is fed back on itself to create a monumental impact. Disturbance to any system will be resisted when it first appears, but if it survives the first attempts at suppression and resonates with pre-existing frustrations within the system, an iterative process of deviation amplification begins. This is how a frustrated mass motivated by hatred and led by paternalistic/charismatic leaders can produce a phenomenal change in the structure of a less developed social system. Unfortunately, without the formation of a comprehensive shared image of a desired future, chaotic struggles may not produce transformation to a self-evolving, purposeful, sociocultural system. The reality of highly developed sociocultural systems that have outgrown the secure web of a paternalistic culture is fundamentally different from those that are still trapped within the confines of this type of culture. Unless paternalistic cultural codes are properly challenged and modified, the repeated pattern of authoritarian ruler and alienated people will continue to emerge. (The Iranian Revolution and the collapse of the Soviet Union are most recent anecdotal evidence.)

哈贝马斯认为，只要人们能够克服过去因意识形态扭曲而产生的限制，就会实现解放。

Emancipation, according to Habermas, takes place whenever people are able to overcome past restrictions that resulted from ideological distortions.

不幸的是，任何形式或类型的意识形态都被证明是社会制度生存的重大障碍。所有意识形态的重要和共同特征是宣称拥有一套预先确定的目的和手段的终极真理。真正的信徒不会质疑潜在的假设。这与二阶学习是不相容的，二阶学习需要质疑神圣的假设并挑战隐含的默认价值观。

Unfortunately, ideologies in any form or type have proved to be major obstructions to the viability of a social system. The significant and common characteristic of all ideologies is a claim for ultimate truth with a predefined set of ends and means. Underlying assumptions are not to be questioned by true believers. This is incompatible with second-order learning, which requires questioning sacred assumptions and challenging implicit sets of default values.

不幸的是，我们这个时代的许多代人都绝望地目睹了相互竞争的意识形态如何摧毁了数百万人的生计，破坏了如此多充满活力的社会的生存能力。作为回应，两位当代社会科学家发表了以下具有挑衅性的言论，强调了我们对意识形态威胁性的关注程度。

Unfortunately, many generations of our time have witnessed with despair how competing ideologies destroyed millions of livelihoods and have undermined the viability of so many vibrant societies. In response the following provocative statements by two contemporary social scientists underline the level of our preoccupation with the menacing nature of ideologies.

毋庸置疑，从单一的意识形态角度来预测复杂社会系统的反直觉行为是一种过于简单化的做法。根据 Kenneth Boulding (1981, p. 18) 的说法：

Needless to say, predicting counterintuitive behavior of complex social systems from a single ideological perspective is an oversimplification. According to Kenneth Boulding (1981, p. 18):

根据特定文化的特征，社会系统可以从混乱的简单状态转向有组织的简单状态，这是通过强调整合而牺牲分化而产生的。它也可以转向混乱的复杂性，这是通过增加分化而牺牲整合而产生的；或者它可以转向有组织的复杂性，这意味着通过同时走向复杂性和秩序而实现更高的组织水平。这意味着，对于每一个分化水平，都存在一个最低的整合水平，低于这个水平，系统就会瓦解为混乱。相反，更高的整合水平需要更高的分化程度，以避免无能为力。

Depending on the characteristics of a given culture, a social system can move from a state of chaotic simplicity toward organized simplicity, which is produced by emphasizing integration at the cost of differentiation. It can also move toward chaotic complexity produced by increased differentiation at the cost of integration or it can move toward organized complexity, signifying a higher level of organization achieved by a movement toward complexity and order concurrently. This means that for every level of differentiation there exists a minimum level of integration below which the system would disintegrate into chaos. Conversely, higher levels of integration require higher degrees of differentiation to avoid impotency.

在灵活的社会环境中，文化界限内会发生低幅度的波动，不会造成任何干扰，英国工党和保守党之间、美国民主党和共和党之间的周期性更替就是明证。然而，如果一种倾向试图跨越文化界限，强烈的反作用力就会将其推回到另一个极端，产生进一步的波动，并进入阶段性变化的临界点。不幸的是，在对立而僵化的意识形态两极分化的社会中，社会转型是通过剧烈的阶段性变化（临界点）来实现的。从这种情况中恢复过来往往非常困难，因为成员之间的关系会受到不可挽回的破坏，就像在陷入长期混乱状态的社会中一样。

In a flexible social setting, oscillations of low amplitude occur within the cultural boundaries without disruption, as demonstrated by periodic shifts of government between the Labor and Conservative parties in the United Kingdom or the Democrats and Republicans in the United States. However, if an orientation tries to cross the limits of the cultural line, a powerful reaction will move it back to the other extreme, producing further oscillations and cusping into a change of phase. Unfortunately, in societies polarized by antagonistic and rigid ideologies, social transformation takes place by a violent change of phase (a cusp). Retrieval from such a situation is often extremely problematic, since the relationship between members is irreparably damaged, as happens in societies that are thrown into a perpetual state of civil disorder.

社会系统的发展是向连续组织模式的转变。每种模式都是一个整体，其特点是整合度和分化度都更高，并且有可能通过将低级矛盾转化为对立面来化解它们。与物理系统（其能量水平决定其组织模式）不同，在社会系统中，知识水平决定了组织模式。因此，可以说知识在社会系统中的作用类似于能量在物理系统中的作用。重要的是，知识与能量不同，不受热力学第一定律（能量守恒定律）的约束。与他人分享知识并不会失去知识。相反，知识的传播提高了社会系统的知识水平，并有助于创造新知识。正是这种能力使社会系统能够自行不断重建其结构并重新定义其功能。

Development of social systems is a transformation into successive modes of organization. Each mode is a whole, characterized by higher degrees of both integration and differentiation, and is potentially capable of dissolving lower level contradictions by converting them into contraries. In contrast to physical systems whose energy level determines their mode of organization, in social systems the knowledge level defines the mode. The role of knowledge in social systems, therefore, can be said to be analogous to that of energy in physical systems. The significant point is that knowledge, unlike energy, is not subject to the first law of thermodynamics (the law of conservation of energy). One does not lose knowledge by sharing it with others. On the contrary, its dissemination increases the knowledge level of the social system and helps the creation of new knowledge. It is this capability that enables a social system of its own accord to constantly re-create its structure and redefine its functions.

不幸的是，对于某些宗教，原教旨主义的解释认为创造是上帝的唯一特权。人类不允许从事任何创造行为。几乎任何形式的艺术——无论是绘画、雕塑、音乐还是戏剧——都是被禁止的。娱乐（享受）也被认为是有罪的。这种对美学的敌对态度不利于发展，因为它没有提供太多机会来表达和拓展一个人的视野，超越单纯生存的直接需求。这种自我限制为尽管拥有大量资源却仍然欠发达的情况提供了一种解释。

Unfortunately, for some religions, the fundamentalist interpretation regards creation as a sole prerogative of God. Human beings are not allowed to engage in any act of creation. Art in almost any form — whether painting, sculpture, music, or drama — is prohibited. Recreation (enjoyment) is also considered sinful. This antagonistic attitude toward aesthetics militates against development, because it does not provide much opportunity to articulate and expand one's horizon beyond the immediate needs of mere existence. This self-limitation provides one explanation for cases of underdevelopment despite the availability of vast resources.

对现状的不满虽然是变革的必要条件，但并不足以确保发展。同样必要的是相信自己能够部分控制事件的发展。那些对环境感到敬畏并将塑造未来的力量置于自身之外的人，无论他们多么痛苦和沮丧，都不会考虑自愿或有意识的改变。

Dissatisfaction with the present, although a necessary condition for change, is not sufficient to ensure development. What seems to be necessary as well is a faith in one's ability to partly control the march of events. Those who are awed by their environment and place the shaping forces of their future outside of themselves do not think of voluntary or conscious change, no matter how miserable and frustrated they are.

发展这一概念的核心是其与增长的区别。根据阿科夫的说法：

Central to this notion of development is its distinction from growth. According to Ackoff:

要理解社会系统的发展过程，我们必须处理有助于或限制集体欲望和追求其目标的能力的结构和过程。共同产生未来的参数存在于社会系统的五个维度的相互作用中：财富、知识、美、权力和价值观。这五个维度之间的兼容性决定了新兴组织模式的有效性。这种组织模式决定了整合程度，以及成员创造他们想要的未来的集体能力。这意味着，如果个人的集合要作为一个有效的系统发挥作用，就需要最低程度的整合。具有讽刺意味的是，每种组织理论的主要关注点都是定义将整体划分为部分的标准。主要理论都隐含地假设整体不过是其各部分的总和，并且故意忽略了这样一个事实，即有效的差异化需要纳入一种将差异化的部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体的手段。在这方面，古典管理学派完全依赖于指挥的统一性和不偏离的必要性。相反，自由市场的倡导者则依赖这样的假设：完全理性的微观决策会自动产生完全理性的宏观条件。这两种方法都存在缺陷，因为它们没有认识到有效的社会融合需要不断积极地重建成员之间的兼容性。最终，一个组织将实现的融合和发展水平取决于它处理成员之间互动的方式。

To understand the process of development of a social system we have to deal with structures and the processes that help or limit the creation of collective desire and ability for the pursuit of its ends. The parameters that coproduce the futures are found in the interaction of the five dimensions of social systems: wealth, knowledge, beauty, power, and values. Compatibility among these five dimensions defines the effectiveness of the emerging mode of organization. This mode of organization determines the level of integration, and the collective ability of the members to create the future they want. This means that a minimum level of integration is required if the aggregate of individuals is to function as an effective system. Ironically, the prime concern of every organization theory has been to define the criteria by which the whole is to be divided into parts. Major theories have implicitly assumed that the whole is nothing but the sum of its parts and have conveniently ignored the fact that effective differentiation requires incorporation of a means that would integrate the differentiated parts into a cohesive whole. In this regard, the classical school of management depends solely on the unity of command and the imperative of no deviation. At the opposite end, advocates of free markets rely on the assumption that perfectly rational micro-decisions would automatically produce perfectly rational macro-conditions. Both approaches fall short because they fail to recognize that effective social integration requires that compatibility among the members be continuously and actively re-created. Ultimately, the level of integration and development that an organization will achieve depends on the means by which it deals with interaction among its members.

系统思维的特色在于它注重整体。但在大多数情况下，这种说法只是一种简单的意图声明，没有明确可行的方法。什么是系统方法？我们如何使用它来掌握整体？人们似乎对系统思维的可取性比对其操作性定义更为认同。

The distinction of systems thinking is its focus on the whole. But in most cases, this claim has been a simple declaration of intent without an explicit, workable methodology. What is systems methodology and how can we use it to get a handle on the whole? There seems to be more agreement on the desirability of systems thinking than on its operational definition.

与普遍持有的观念相反，流行的多学科方法概念并非系统方法。将独立发现综合成连贯整体的能力远比从不同角度生成信息的能力更为重要。然而，如果没有明确定义的综合方法，使用多学科方法进行发现的过程将像盲人摸象一样令人沮丧。每个盲人站在大象的不同部位，从各自的位置报告发现。“这是一条蛇。”“这是一根柱子。”“这是一把扇子。”“这是一支矛！”试想一下，如果在没有“大象”概念的情况下，试图通过这个故事来理解整体，那将是多么徒劳。我相信你在整理扭曲的信息并将其放在正确角度时不会感到沮丧，因为讲故事的人已经告诉我们故事的主题是大象。看来我们需要对整体有一个先入为主的概念，然后才能从混乱中整理出秩序。

Contrary to a widely held belief, the popular notion of a multidisciplinary approach is not a systems approach. The ability to synthesize separate findings into a coherent whole is far more critical than the ability to generate information from different perspectives. Without a well-defined synthesizing method, however, the process of discovery using a multidisciplinary approach would be an experience as frustrating as that of the blind men trying to identify an elephant. Positioned at a different part of the elephant, each of the blind men reported his findings from his respective position. “It's a snake.” “It's a pillar.” “It's a fan.” “It's a spear!” Consider the futility of trying to make sense of the whole by using this story without the prior conception of “elephant.” I am sure you experienced no frustration in sorting out the distorted information and putting it in perspective because the storyteller had already told us that the subject is an elephant. It seems we need a preconceived notion of the whole before we can glean order out of chaos.

波斯文学中还出现了同一个故事的另一个版本，由莫拉纳·贾拉莱丁·莫拉维（鲁米）讲述，捕捉到了我们对主题没有先入为主的概念时产生的复杂程度。这个故事讲述了一群人在完全黑暗中遇到一个奇怪的物体。由于讲故事的人自己也在黑暗中，他无法提供有关该物体的线索。在这里，所有通过触摸物体不同部分来识别物体的努力都徒劳无功，直到有人带着灯赶来。在这种情况下，光是方法论的隐喻，它使他们最终都能看到整体。

A different version of the same story, found in Persian literature and narrated by Molana Jalaledin Molavi (Rumi), captures the level of complexity produced when we have no preconceived notion of the subject. The story is about a group of men who encounter a strange object in complete darkness. Because the storyteller is in the dark himself, he cannot provide a clue about the object. Here, all efforts to identify the object by touching its different parts prove fruitless until someone arrives with a light. The light, which in this context is a metaphor for methodology, enables them all to see the whole at last.

鲁米版本的故事说明，要想看清整体，需要一种以操作系统方法论形式出现的赋能之光。鲁米在他的神秘智慧中提出，要获得赋能之光，一个人需要与宇宙协调。对于我们的目的而言，协调的操作意义在于，一个人应该能够明确了解和验证自己对社会文化系统性质的基本假设。

Rumi's version of the story illustrates that the ability to see the whole somehow requires an enabling light in the form of an operational systems methodology. In his mystical wisdom Rumi proposed that to get the enabling light one needed to tune in to the universe. For our purpose, the operational meaning of tuning in is that one should be able to make one's underlying assumptions about the nature of the sociocultural systems explicitly known and verifiable.

三种著名的探究系统（分析性思维、综合性思维和动态思维）尽管取得了成功，但尚未就看待整体的方法达成一致。

Three well-known inquiring systems (analytical thinking, synthetic thinking, and dynamic thinking), despite their success, have yet to agree on a method to see the whole.

然而，我认为，要看清整体，就需要同时理解结构、功能和过程。它们代表同一事物的三个方面，并与包含环境形成互补。因此，结构、功能和过程与上下文一起定义了整体，或者使对整体的理解成为可能。结构定义了组件及其关系，功能定义了产生的结果，过程明确定义了活动顺序和产生结果所需的专门知识，而上下文定义了系统所处的独特环境。

However, I contend that seeing the whole requires understanding structure, function, and process at the same time. They represent three aspects of the same thing and with the containing environment form a complementary set. Therefore, structure, function, and process with the context define the whole or make the understanding of the whole possible. Structure defines components and their relationships, function defines the outcomes or results produced, process explicitly defines the sequence of activities and the know-how required to produce the outcome, and context defines the unique environment in which the system is situated.

正如本章将要证明的，使用结构、功能和过程这三个视角作为整体方法论的基础，可以从实践和理论两个角度得到证明。

Use of all three perspectives of structure, function, and process as the foundation of a holistic methodology can be justified on both practical and theoretical grounds, as this chapter will demonstrate.

在更熟悉和更实际的领域，我们可以观察到，古典管理学派以投入为导向，处理结构问题。新古典管理学派以目标管理为理念，关注功能。而全面质量运动则关注控制，专注于过程。分析、综合和动态，各自都产生了大量的信息和知识。然而，如果我们同时从结构、功能和过程这三个角度来看待同一现象，我们就能对整体有更全面的理解。因此，可以合理地得出结论，整体方法必须包括结构、功能和过程这三个概念。

On more familiar and practical territory, we could observe that the classical school of management, with its input orientation, deals with structure. The neoclassical school, with its notion of management by objective, is concerned with functions. And the total quality movement, with its concern for control, is preoccupied with the process. Analysis, synthesis, and dynamics, each in its own right, have produced a great deal of information and knowledge. However, if we looked at the same phenomenon from all three perspectives of structure, function, and process at the same time, we could develop a more complete understanding of the whole. So, it is reasonable to conclude that a holistic approach must include all three notions of structure, function, and process.

因此，人们认为，要理解一个系统，我们只需要知道它的结构。这就是为什么分析——理解结构——是古典科学的主导方法。

Therefore, it is assumed that to understand a system, we need to know only its structure. This is why analysis — understanding structure — is the dominant method for classical science.

历史上，社会系统维度的认定既有被动的（对社会生活中的某些问题作出反应），也有主动的（追求终极的善）。被动的社会系统五个维度对应着历史上所有人类社会面临的以下主要问题领域：经济、科学、美学、伦理和政治。

Historically, the identification of social system dimensions has been both reactive (reacting to certain problems in social life) and proactive (reaching for the ultimate good). Reactively, the five dimensions of social systems correspond to the following major problem areas historically faced by all human societies: economics, scientifics, aesthetics, ethics, and politics.

20 世纪 70 年代初，我遇到阿科夫时，我们为此争论了好几天，最后他决定我需要听一场关于这个主题的精彩讲座。那场讲座非常精彩，我意识到我之所以没有理解美的概念，和阿科夫没有理解力量的概念是一样的。

When I met Ackoff, in the early 1970s, we argued over this for days, until he decided that I needed a good lecture on the subject. That lecture was beautiful, and I realized that I had missed the notion of beauty for exactly the same reason that Ackoff had missed the notion of power.

与我们的权力、财富、知识、美貌和价值观这五个维度相对应的是亚里士多德将自由与选择以及实现选择的意愿联系起来；他在财富标题下对健康、生命力和活力的讨论；关于求知的需要和思考的技能的深刻论证；没有爱的生活可能不值得过的断言；以及最后，道德美德（正确选择的良好习惯）的宏伟概念。

Paralleling our five dimensions of power, wealth, knowledge, beauty, and values are Aristotle's association of liberty with choice and the willfulness to carry them out; his discussion of health, vitality, and vigor under the heading of wealth; the profound argument about the need to know and the skill of thinking; the assertion that a loveless life may not be worth living; and, finally, the magnificent notion of moral virtues (the good habits of choosing correctly).

与传统做法不同，将这五个维度视为一个相互排斥且详尽无遗的集合，并不意味着要将每个维度孤立起来，以便单独进行分析。相反，这是为了强调它们的相互作用。虽然每个维度都代表着一种独特的功能，但它们之间的相互依赖性使得任何四个维度都完全有可能成为第五个维度的共同产物。例如，权力，作为一种能力，可能会受到财富、知识、美貌（魅力）和价值观（传统）的积极或消极影响。

Recognizing these five dimensions as a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set, unlike those of conventional practice, is not meant to isolate each dimension so it can be analyzed separately. Rather, it is meant to emphasize their interactions. Although each dimension represents a unique functionality, interdependency among them is such that it is quite feasible for any four to become coproducers of the fifth one. For example, power, as the ability to do, can be positively or negatively influenced by wealth, knowledge, beauty (charisma), and values (tradition).

转换器以圆圈表示，代表常量、转换表、方程条件、图形关系、iThink 函数以及所有不会累积但会对流行为产生影响的因素或变量。

Converters, signified by circles, represent constants, conversion tables, equation conditions, graphical relationships, iThink functions, and all of the factors or variables that do not accumulate but have an influence on the behavior of a flow.

在全球经济中，价格由全球市场决定，使其成为一个不可控变量。这使得斯隆著名的“成本加成”定价政策变得过时。斯隆的著名论断是，成本是一个不可控变量，而由成本加上合理利润组成的价格是一个可控变量，这使得成本加成经济在美国长期占据主导地位。但游戏规则已经改变。今天，竞争的唯一方式是降低成本，通过定期重新设计产品和生产过程来提高产量，并记住 75% 的成本是由设计驱动的。但要提高产量，我们必须同时处理以下四个相互依赖的变量：周期时间、成本、灵活性和质量。这只能通过构建能够处理相互依赖变量的生产过程动态模型来实现。

In a global economy, price is set by the global market, making it an uncontrollable variable. This renders Sloane's famous “cost plus” pricing policy obsolete. Sloane's famous assertion, that cost is an uncontrollable variable and price consisting of cost plus a reasonable profit is the controllable variable, led to a dominating cost plus economy in America that lasted for a long time. But the game has changed. Today, the only way to compete is to reduce cost, improve throughput by periodically redesigning the product and throughput processes, and remembering that 75% of the cost is design driven. But to improve throughput requires that we deal with the following four interdependent variables simultaneously: cycle time, cost, flexibility, and quality. This can only be done by building a dynamic model of the throughput process that is capable of dealing with interdependent variables.

我们将生产量定义为创造和传播财富的过程。它包含获取所需投入、将投入转化为产出、然后将最终产品推向市场所需的所有活动。因此，营销、销售、订单处理、采购、生产、运输、开票和会计（以及现金管理、质量、时间和成本）都属于生产量链的活动。

We have defined throughput as the process of generating and disseminating wealth. It contains all of the activities necessary to obtain required inputs, convert inputs to outputs, and then take the final products to market. Therefore, marketing, selling, order processing, purchasing, producing, shipping, billing, and accounting — in addition to cash management, quality, time, and cost — are among the activities of a throughput chain.

服务业的活动列表可能略有不同；例如，教育系统的吞吐量将包括选择和注册学生、安排课程、教学、考试和颁发证书等活动。同时，医疗保健系统的吞吐量可能包括接触患者、接触医疗保健提供者、与第三方付款人的接口、医疗保健的提供、患者护理的提供以及报销系统的管理。

The list of activities for a service industry might be slightly different; for example, throughput of an education system will include activities for selecting and registering students, scheduling the courses, teaching, giving exams, and issuing certifications. Meanwhile, the throughput of a health-care system may include access to patients, access to health-care providers, interface with third-party payers, delivery of health care, delivery of patient care, and management of the reimbursement system.

然而，显而易见的是，即使是一个简单的吞吐量也包含一系列需要集成的事件和活动。由于这些活动通常由组织中不同部门的不同团队执行，因此强大的接口和有效的耦合是实现具有竞争力的吞吐量的必要条件。

Nevertheless, it is obvious that even a simple throughput consists of a chain of events and activities that need to be integrated. Since these activities are usually carried out by different groups in different departments of an organization, strong interface and effective coupling among them are a must for a competitive throughput.

实际上，要设计一个吞吐量系统，我们需要

Actually, to design a throughput system, we need to

任何以创造、解决问题、选择和综合为任务的专业人士都与设计思维有关。从物理环境和人工制品到音乐（作曲）、哲学（探究系统的设计）以及政治和经济安排，各种领域都产生了许多精美的设计。一些伟大的思想家甚至将整个社会视为需要重新设计的系统。

Any professional whose task is to create, to dissolve problems, to choose, and to synthesize is involved with design thinking. Many beautiful designs have been produced in a variety of fields ranging from physical environments and artifacts to music (composition), philosophy (design of inquiring systems), and political and economic arrangements. Some great thinkers have even taken whole societies as systems to be redesigned.

设计思维就是人类创造形象的独特能力。在这种情况下，设计思维的独特优势在于产生新的替代方案。它超越了默认解决方案，寻找新的令人兴奋的可能性。它不是从现有的替代方案中选择“最佳”方案。现有方案中的选择通常具有一个或多个共同属性，这些属性基于参与者在类似情况下的先前经验产生的一组显式或隐式假设或约束。使用高级分析工具来帮助选择最佳替代方案的传统做法只会导致重复相同的已知行为模式，因为支配替代方案生成的基本假设仍未受到挑战。

The unique ability of human beings to create images is what design thinking is all about. In this context the distinct advantage of design thinking is to produce new alternatives. It goes beyond default solutions by looking for new exciting possibilities. It is not about selecting the “best” from the existing set of alternatives. The choices in the existing set usually share one or more properties based on an explicit or implicit set of assumptions or constraints produced by the actors' previous experiences with similar situations. The conventional practice of using advanced analytical tools to help select the best alternative will only result in repeating the same known pattern of behavior, since the underlying assumptions governing the generation of alternatives remain unchallenged.

设计任何东西都需要一个核心概念和对设计主题的基本理解。要设计一辆汽车，需要有汽车的概念，并了解最新技术和相关技术。要设计一个社会系统，需要对社会文化系统的性质有实际了解。在这种情况下，没有什么比一个好的操作理论更实用了。如果没有一个关于野兽本质和它做某事的原因的明确理论，人们就注定要一遍又一遍地重复同样的非解决方案。所有行动都先于一些关于现实的心理形象或理论。除了新生儿，没有人没有理论，无论理论多么粗糙和隐晦。那些声称自己没有理论的人要么希望别人毫无疑问地接受他们的意见，要么只是不知道他们默认有理论。不陷入理论迷宫并不意味着陷入另一个极端的盲目行动。只要行动背后的假设是明确的，就有机会从经验中学习并提高我们实践的质量。本书的第二部分详细介绍了有关社会文化系统本质的关键假设，因此，它是我们设计理论的一个组成部分。

To design anything requires a core concept and basic understanding of the subject to be designed. To design a car one needs to have a concept of a car and be knowledgeable about the state-of-the-art and the relevant technologies. To design a social system a practical knowledge about the nature of sociocultural systems is required. In this context nothing is more practical than a good operational theory. Without an explicit theory about the nature of the beast and the reasons why it does what it does, one would be condemned to keep repeating the same non-solutions all over again. All actions are preceded by some mental image, or theory, about the reality. Nobody, except perhaps a newborn child, is without a theory, no matter how crude and implicit. Those who claim that they are without one are either expecting others to accept their opinions without questions or are simply unaware that they have it by default. Not to get bogged down in a theoretical maze does not mean to fall into the other extreme of mindless action. As long as the assumptions underlying the action are explicit, there exists the chance to learn from experience and improve the quality of our practice. Part Two of this book covered in some detail the critical assumptions about the nature of sociocultural systems, therefore, it is an integral part of our theory of design.

设计过程的核心是整体思维的迭代过程。设计就是在给定的上下文中创建结构、功能和流程。直接用户反馈定义的上下文为设计过程提供了选择标准。需要强调的是，我们不能独立处理上下文、功能、结构和流程。我们需要使用迭代过程来保持它们之间的关系具有交互性和意义。

At the core of the design process is the iterative process of holistic thinking. To design is to create structure, functions, and processes in a given context. The context defined by direct user feedback provides the selection criteria for the design process. The point to emphasize is that we cannot deal with context, function, structure, and process independent from one another. We need to use an iterative process to keep the relationships among them interactive and meaningful.

首先，设计师必须停留在更高的抽象层次上，不要让迷失于细节的倾向分散他们以有趣的方式思考整体的能力。

To start, designers must stay at higher levels of abstraction, not letting the tendency to be lost in detail distract them from the ability to be playful in thinking about the whole.

在第一次迭代中，设计师将专注于开发系统所需的规格以取代现有秩序。首先要指定功能——输出或设计师希望系统对其所属的更大系统产生的预期影响。这意味着要了解背景，尤其是利益相关者的行为。他们是谁，他们的兴趣是什么？他们控制哪些变量，影响哪些变量？然后，设计师将尝试理解和定义许多通常不同的预期规格之间的相互依赖关系。他们将找出哪些初始规格是兼容和相互加强的，哪些是互补和平衡的，哪些是相互冲突的。他们还将尝试重新概念化任何相互冲突的要求以消除差异。在第二次迭代中，设计师将让他们的想象力接管，创建可能产生所需输出的可能结构和过程的抽象心理图像。然后他们需要暂停并将选定的图像综合成一个猜想（仅定义主要功能的有凝聚力的整体的粗略近似）、基本结构和吞吐量过程的轮廓。

With the first iteration designers will concentrate on developing the desired specifications of the system to replace the existing order. Start by specifying the function — the outputs or the desired impact designers would like the system to have on the larger system of which it is a part. This means understanding the context, especially the behavior of the stakeholders. Who are they and what is their interest? Which variables do they control and which ones do they influence? Designers then will try to understand and define the interdependencies among the many and often diverse desired specifications. They will find out which initial specifications are compatible and reinforcing, which ones are complementary and counterbalancing, and which ones are in conflict. They will also try to reconceptualize any conflicting requirements to dissolve the differences. In the second iteration, designers will let their imaginations take over to create abstract mental images of possible structures and processes that potentially would produce the desired outputs. Then they need to pause and synthesize the selected images into a conjecture (rough approximation of a cohesive whole that only defines primary functions), basic structure, and the outline of the throughput process.

在第三次迭代中，他们将制作一个符号设计模型，用于与设计本身和利益相关者进行沟通，以达成满足所有关注点的共识。下一次迭代将把这个初始粗略设计转化为所需的下一代系统。在连续的迭代中，在测试了操作可行性之后，更多的细节和特殊性被纳入设计中。如果不彻底了解其动态行为，任何设计都不会可行。了解我们设计的意外后果，并能够映射正反馈和负反馈回路的行为以捕捉控制系统，使得操作思维成为我们设计理论的一个关键组成部分。

In the third iteration, they will make a symbolic model of the design to be used to communicate with the design itself and with the stakeholders to achieve consensus that satisfies all concerns. The next iteration will convert this initial rough design into the desired next generation of the system. In successive iterations, after testing for operational viability, more detail and specificity are incorporated into the design. No design will be viable without a thorough understanding of its dynamic behavior. Understanding unintended consequences of our design and ability to map the behavior of positive and negative feedback loops to capture the control system makes operational thinking a critical component of our design theory.

设计是一种直觉过程，即从杂乱无章的不可行部分中创造出令人兴奋的可行整体。设计是关于选择一个理想的未来，并发明实现它的方法。设计培养了处理现实世界中定义不明确、结构不良或“棘手”问题的先天能力。

Design is an intuitive process of creating exciting feasible wholes from messy infeasible parts. It is about selecting a desired future and inventing the ways to bring it about. Design develops innate abilities in dealing with real-world, ill-defined, ill-structured, or “wicked” problems.

以下是设计思维的十个操作原则：

Here are ten operating principles of design thinking:

这里有必要回顾一下多维性原理，以及积分和微分是一对互补的讨论。它们相互依赖，以至于任何给定的微分水平都有相应的积分水平；否则，系统将陷入混乱的复杂状态。

It would be timely here to recall the principle of multidimensionality and the discussion that integration and differentiation form a complementary pair. Their interdependency is such that for any given level of differentiation there is a corresponding level of integration; otherwise, the system will fall into a state of chaotic complexity.

不幸的是，每个学科的亚专业化程度不断提高，已经达到了这样的水平，以至于我们产生了一个亚文化的集合，这些亚文化甚至无法在同一学科内进行交流，更不用说跨学科交流了。作为一种现代科学文化，我们在没有注意到整合的需要的情况下进行了分化。难怪我们在许多领域都失去了连接点的能力。尽管所有人都声称相反，但大多数当代组织只是由分化的职能部门组成的孤岛——每个部门都具有非常高的专业水平——没有任何真正的整合手段。我们天真地认为协调就是整合。我们错误地推断，如果几个职能部门向一个协调的老板汇报，他/她就能将它们整合成一个新兴的整体，并正确地连接各个点。最近的金融危机、房地产泡沫，以及我们在教育、移民和医疗保健系统方面面临的明显混乱，仅举几例，就足以证明我们的整合努力已经失败。

Unfortunately, the increasing amount of subspecialization in every discipline has reached such a level that we have produced an aggregate of subcultures that are not even capable of communicating within the same discipline let alone across disciplines. As a modern scientific culture, we have differentiated without paying any attention to the need for integration. It is no wonder we have lost the ability to connect the dots in a host of many arenas. Despite all claims to the contrary, most contemporary organizations are merely collections of silos of differentiated functional departments — each with very high levels of expertise — without any real means of integration among them. We have naively assumed that coordination is the same as integration. We have erroneously reasoned that if several functions report to a coordinating boss he/she will be able to integrate them into the emerging whole and properly connect the dots. The recent financial crisis, housing bubble, and the obvious messes we are facing in education, immigration, and health-care systems, just to name a few, should provide enough evidence to convince us that our integrative efforts have been a failure.

组织中专业部分无法整合使得以下关于模块化设计的讨论显得尤为重要。模块化既是设计复杂系统的绝佳工具，也是在操作层面进行功能集成的完美机制，也是在社会系统架构层面创建动态结构的有效格式。

The failure to integrate specialized parts of the organization makes the following discussion of modular design especially important. Modularity is both a great vehicle for designing complex systems and a perfect mechanism for functional integration at operational levels as well as an effective format to create dynamic structure at architectural levels of social systems.

模块是架构中的一个元素，其设计方式使其具有很强的内部相互依赖性（完全功能集成）和很弱或最小的外部依赖性和交互性。然后，这个完全集成的模块连接到一个特定的平台，该平台旨在简化模块、其主机平台和系统其余部分之间的通信或交互。因此，模块是一种集成工具，用于促进和管理差异化功能之间的所有内部交互，以产生一个新兴的整体（信号或结果），并将其传输或转移到模块所属系统的外部元素。

A module is an element in the architecture that is designed in such a way that it has strong internal interdependency (full functional integration) and weak or a minimum external dependencies and interactions. This fully integrated module is then connected to a specific platform designed to simplify the communications or interactions between the modules, its host platform, and the rest of the system. A module, therefore, is an integrative vehicle to facilitate and manage all of the internal interactions among the differentiated functions to produce an emergent whole (a signal or an outcome) to be transmitted or transferred to external elements of the system of which the module is a part.

以下示例有助于解释模块化设计的复杂性，并回答有关其设置的问题。我的一个客户从事设计定制分离装置，为电子行业的客户净化水源的业务。该公司的核心是工程部门，由总工程师领导。机械工程、电气工程、化学工程和工艺工程部门向总工程师汇报。四个工程部门分别有自己的总工程师以及一名副总工程师、一名高级工程师和几名实际负责这项工作的初级工程师。总工程师是第一个收到公司销售部门获得的客户订单的人，一旦总工程师批准订单，设计过程就开始了。该过程涉及所有四个部门，但顺序相继。首先将订单转交给首席化学工程师，然后首席化学工程师将其转发给副首席化学工程师，然后转交给高级工程师，最终由高级工程师从一名初级化学工程师中挑选出一名来启动设计。初级化学工程师完成其部分设计后，开始将工作向上级转交给高级工程师，然后是副总工程师，最后是首席化学工程师，首席化学工程师将批准的设计转交给首席工艺工程师。整个模式随后在工艺、电气和机械工程部门重复。最终设计完成后，将其返回会计和销售组进行定价和成本计算。一旦最终预算定价并与客户分享，客户与公司销售和工程团队之间的来回价格谈判过程就开始了。

The following example should help explain the intricacies of modular design and answer questions regarding its setup. A client of mine was in the business of designing custom-made separation units to purify water for customers in the electronics industry. The company's core was its engineering division, which was headed by the chief engineer. Reporting to the chief engineer were the mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, chemical engineering, and process engineering departments. Each of the four engineering departments in turn had its own chief engineer as well as a deputy chief, a senior engineer, and a few junior engineers who actually did the work. The chief engineer was the first to receive a client order secured by the company's sales department, and once the chief approved the order, the design process began. The process involved all four departments but in a successive order. It began by transferring the order to the chief chemical engineer, who then forwarded it to the deputy chief chemical engineer, and then down to the senior engineer who finally selected one of the junior chemical engineers to initiate the design. The junior chemical engineer, upon completing his part of the design, began the ascending order of forwarding his work back up the chain to the senior engineer, followed by the deputy chief, and finally the chief chemical engineer, who then transferred the approved design to the chief process engineer. The whole pattern was then repeated in the process, electrical, and mechanical engineering departments. When the final design was completed, it was then returned to the accounting and sales group for pricing and cost calculations. Once the final budget was priced and shared with the client, the back and forth process of price negotiations between the client and the company's sales and engineering teams began.

这个过程通常需要大约六到八个月才能完成，预计成本约为 500,000 美元。随着时间的推移，每个投标的时间表和相关成本都以每年 5% 的速度增长，这成为公司与客户之间摩擦的主要根源。

This process usually took about six to eight months to complete at an estimated cost of around $500,000. Over time, both the timetable and the associated costs surrounding each bid increased at an annual rate of 5% and this was becoming a major source of friction between the company and its customers.

回顾情况后，我们显然需要模块化设计。但传统文化具有强大的功能结构，尚未准备好进行模块化设计所需的那种变革。为了减少变革阻力，我们提出了一个简单的实验，看看公司是否有其他替代流程可以考虑，以降低成本并改善时间安排。实验是创建一个学习小组，其中包括四名初级工程师，每个工程部门一名，以及一名成本会计和一名销售部门的销售工程师。要求学习小组的每个成员向团队的其他成员传授他/她所执行职能的本质和关键方面，更具体地说，每个定义变量如何影响最终结果。学习小组应在自己的时间内完成这项任务，以防止这项练习影响他们目前的工作。作为奖励，如果学习小组的所有成员都证明他们已经从彼此那里学到了此设计流程的所有功能和关键问题并成功完成了分配的项目，团队的每个成员都将获得 10,000 美元的加薪。

After reviewing the situation it was obvious that we needed a modular design. But the traditional culture with its strong functional structure was not ready for the kind of change that modular design requires. To reduce resistance to change, we proposed a simple experiment to see if there were other alternative processes the company could consider to reduce cost and improve timing. The experiment was to create a learning cell involving four junior engineers, one from each of the engineering divisions, in addition to a cost accountant and a sales engineer from the sales department. Each member of the learning cell was asked to teach the remaining members of the team the essence and critical aspects of the functions he/she performed, and more specifically how each one of the defining variables impacted the final result. The learning cell was to manage this task on their own time in an effort to prevent this exercise from affecting their present work. As an incentive, each member of the team was promised a $10,000 salary increase if all of the members of the learning cell demonstrated that they had learned all of the functions and critical concerns of this design process from one another and successfully finished an assigned project.

三个月后，该小组准备接受他们的第一个项目。当他们接到第一个项目时，该模块的所有六名成员都与客户一起会面，以团队的形式亲自了解客户的运营、主要关注点、目标和要求。

After three months, the group was ready to accept their first project. When they received their first project, all six members of the module met with the client together to learn about its operations, major concerns, objectives, and requirements firsthand and as a team.

此次访问后，模块化设计团队仅用了四周时间就完成了设计的第一版。经过小幅修改后，该设计得到了客户批准，并在另一周内完成。总成本为 120,000 美元，总耗时为六周。该实验重复了两次，结果相似，因此为整个组织转向模块化设计铺平了道路。

It took the modular design team only four weeks after this visit to produce the first iteration of their design. This design, with small modification, was approved by the client and finalized in another week. Total cost was $120,000 and total time was six weeks. This experiment was duplicated twice with similar results, and as such paved the way for the entire organization to convert to a modular design.

我们说过，自组织、有目的的社会文化系统是自我进化的。它们不只是适应环境，而是与环境共同进化。它们可以随着时间推移而改变互动规则。然而，像所有生命系统一样，它们表现出趋向于预先定义的秩序的倾向。它们的行为受一种隐含的共同形象的引导。它们倾向于非常接近和再现一种给定的存在模式。要改变这种行为模式，需要改变隐含的共同形象（组织吸引子）。

We have said that self-organizing, purposeful, sociocultural systems are self-evolving. They do not simply adapt to their environments but co-evolve with them. They can change the rules of interaction as they evolve over time. However, like all living systems, they exhibit a tendency toward a predefined order. Their behavior is guided by an implicit, shared image. They tend to approximate and reproduce a given pattern of existence very closely. To change this pattern of behavior the implicit shared image (the organizing attractor) needs to be changed.

共享形象本身就是一个复杂的设计，它处于变革过程的核心。一旦形成，它就充当着一个过滤器，因此任何旨在产生变革的行动的成功都取决于它渗透和修改共享形象的程度。

The shared image, itself a complex design, stands at the center of the process of change. Once formed it acts as a filter so that success of any action intended to produce change invariably depends on the degree it penetrates and modifies this shared image.

阿科夫的系统方法论瞄准了这一概念的核心。其最终目标是用更理想的未来共享形象取代导致秩序失常的扭曲“共享形象”。在互动管理研究所 INTERACT 工作了几十年，我们利用互动设计流程重新设计扭曲的共享形象，并在许多社会系统的行为模式中产生了持久的变化。

Ackoff's systems methodology aims at the core of this conception. Its ultimate objective is to replace the distorted “shared image” responsible for regenerating a pattern of malfunctioning order with a shared image of a more desirable future. Working together for decades in INTERACT, the Institute for Interactive Management, we have used the interactive design process to redesign distorted shared images and to produce a lasting change in the behavioral pattern of many social systems.

设计师通过实施他们最激动人心的未来形象——下一代系统的设计——来取代现有秩序。明确而激动人心的未来设计/形象是变革的有力工具。然后通过逐次逼近（发明缩小实际状态和期望状态之间差距的方法）来实现理想的未来。

Designers replace the existing order by operationalizing their most exciting image of the future — the design of the next generation of the system. An explicit and exciting design/image of the future is a powerful instrument of change. The desired future is then realized by successive approximation (inventing the ways to close the gap between actual and desired states).

然而，这种自命不凡、大胆的乐观主义是基于以下假设的：

This pretentious and daring optimism, however, is based on the following assumptions:

传统上，定义问题有三种方式。最常见的方式是将问题定义为偏离规范的行为。除了难以定义社会文化系统中的“规范”之外，这种方式的主要缺点是强化现有秩序。尽管人们强烈怀疑现有秩序可能是问题的根源，但人们通常还是会这样做。一个简单的例子就是教育领域的“回归基础”运动。

Traditionally, there are three ways to define a problem. The most common approach defines problems as deviations from the norm. The major shortcoming of this approach, besides the difficulty in defining the “norm” in a sociocultural system, is to reinforce the existing order. This is usually done despite strong suspicion that the existing order might be the source of the problem. A simple example is the “back to basics” movement in education.

第三种，也许是最难的一种定义问题的方式，就是倾向于用我们已有的解决方案来定义问题。现有的解决方案让我们看不到现实，所以我们只接受问题的表面意义。运筹学家可能会认为某种情况是分配问题，而会计师可能会认为这是现金流问题，这并不奇怪。

The third, and perhaps the most obstructive, way to define a problem is the tendency to define it in terms of the solution we already have. Existing solutions conveniently shield us from seeing the reality, so we accept the problem at face value. Not surprisingly, an operations researcher may see a situation as an allocation problem, while an accountant may consider it a cash flow problem.

搜索阶段通常会发现大量问题、障碍和驱动因素。为了理解这些发现，我们必须将它们综合成几个类别，以便我们能够检查它们之间的相互作用并了解混乱的本质。

The search phase usually identifies a large number of issues, obstructions, and drivers. To make sense of these findings, we have to synthesize them into a few categories so we can examine their interactions and understand the essence of the mess.

该过程包括将各种现象分组为类别或子集，然后识别主题，每个主题都是其组成元素（子集成员）的突现属性。

The process involves grouping various phenomena into categories or subsets, then identifying themes, each of which is the emergent property of its constituent elements (members of subsets).

这些主题的生成通常需要互动讨论，以达成对分组标准的共同理解。每个主题应 (1) 定义清晰，以免混淆其代表的内容，以及 (2) 证实其普遍性。主题不应反映孤立事件。主题有效性的试金石是，当向相关利益相关者展示时，是否能产生明确的认可信号（“啊哈”体验）。

Generation of these themes usually requires an interactive discussion to achieve a shared understanding of the grouping criteria. Each theme should be (1) defined clearly so there is no confusion about what it represents and (2) substantiated in terms of its prevalence. Themes should not reflect isolated occurrences. A litmus test for the validity of the themes is that, when presented to relevant stakeholders, a clear sign of recognition results (an “aha” experience).

最后，确定并证实所有相关主题后，必须解决各要素之间的关系（相互作用）。

Finally, after all relevant themes are identified and substantiated, the relationships (interactions) among the elements must be addressed.

可以通过在图表上追踪数字和交互线来构建和读取此类图表，如下所示。

This type of diagram can be constructed and read by tracing numbers on the graph and the lines of interactions as follows.

一旦将混乱的要素及其相互作用绘制出来，就很容易看出当前混乱的演变原因和方式。不幸的是，上述混乱是一个众所周知的现象，每当成功的产品部门错过与其领域相关的技术突破时，就会产生这种现象。正如沃森·Jr. 所言，不幸的是，“错过技术突破的概率与组织在先前技术上取得的成功水平成正比。”

Once the elements of the mess and their interactions are mapped, it will be easy to see why and how the current mess has evolved. The above mess, unfortunately, is a well-known phenomenon that is produced whenever a successful product division misses a technological break relevant to its field. As put beautifully by Watson Jr., unfortunately “Probability of missing a technological break is directly proportional to the level of success the organization had achieved in the previous technology.”

绘制混乱图是定义混乱的本质特征和突发属性的启发式过程。它涉及找到系统中存在的“二阶机器”。现有秩序的这种意想不到的后果产生了令人麻痹的“II 型”属性，这些属性会产生惰性、阻碍变革并挫败做出重大改进的尝试。要实现任何系统性能的数量级改进，必须识别和拆除二阶机器。夸大制胜法宝，加上可能的游戏变化、错误的测量和奖励系统，往往会指向一组看似无辜、简单但根深蒂固的假设，这些假设是二阶机器的核心。

Mapping the mess is the heuristic process of defining essential characteristics and the emergent property of the mess. It involves finding the “second-order machine” residing within the system. This unanticipated consequence of the existing order produces paralyzing “type II” properties that create inertia, prevent change, and frustrate attempts to make significant improvements. To achieve an order-of-magnitude improvement in any system's performance, the second-order machine has to be recognized and dismantled. Exaggeration of the winning formula, combined with a possible change of game, faulty measurement, and reward system more often than not will point to a set of seemingly innocent, simple, but deep-rooted assumptions that are at the core of the second-order machine.

混乱不是一种预测，而是一种预警系统。信息的正确包装和传达与信息本身的内容同样重要。制定和传播混乱是解决混乱的重要一步。通常，对混乱的了解有助于化解混乱。必须编写一个可信且引人入胜的故事，揭示当前状态中隐含的不良未来。假设事情会同时出错（如果可能的话）。尝试产生共鸣并展示系统崩溃是如何发生的。挑战在于创造对当前现实及其不良后果的可信共识，从而产生变革的愿望。故事应该考虑相关利益相关者的利害关系、影响和利益。它不应该评估责任或让人们产生防御心理。混乱应该作为过去成功的结果而不是失败的结果来呈现。请记住，世界不是由那些正确的人来统治的，而是由那些能够说服他人他们是正确的人来统治的。

Mess is not a prediction; it is an early warning system. Proper packaging and communicating of the message is as important as the content of the message itself. Formulating and disseminating the mess is a significant step toward solving it. More often than not, knowledge of the mess helps dissolve it. A believable and compelling story that reveals the undesirable future implicit in the current state has to be developed. Assume that things will go wrong, if they can, all at the same time. Try to produce a resonance and show how a system breakdown can occur. The challenge is to create a believable shared understanding of the current reality and its undesirable consequences, thus creating a desire for change. The story should consider the stake, influence, and interest of the relevant stakeholders. It should not assess blame or make people defensive. The mess should be presented as a consequence of past success, not as a result of failure. Remember, the world is not run by those who are right; it is run by those who can convince others that they are right.

总体而言，管理层似乎不愿意与其他利益相关者（尤其是成员）分享混乱局面，理由是这可能会让他们灰心丧气。这种做法不仅违背了制定混乱局面的目的，而且违反直觉。根据我的经验，组织成员往往知道混乱局面的性质；在大多数情况下，他们只是不被允许谈论它，或者他们可能无法像制定混乱局面时那样完整地表达它。他们真正不知道的是管理层是否意识到了混乱局面。通常，分享混乱局面会让人松一口气，并愿意面对它。

Generally, there seems reluctance on management's part to share the mess with other stakeholders, especially the members, under the pretext that this might discourage them. Not only does this practice defeat the purpose of formulating the mess, but it is also counterintuitive. It has been my experience that members of an organization, more often than not, are aware of the nature of the mess; in most cases they are simply not allowed to talk about it, or they might not be able to articulate it as completely as during the formulation of the mess. What they really do not know is whether management is aware of the mess or not. Usually, sharing the mess brings a sigh of relief and a willingness to confront it.

要维持基于生物学思维的增长模式，就需要提高消费水平。不幸的是，维持两位数的增长（这已成为“股市资本主义”的不容置疑的期望）是不可行的，尽管取得了巨大的成功，但占主导地位的增长模式也已达到其承载能力。金融部门以数量为基础的商业模式的行为加剧了这一问题。银行业没有履行其为经济运作提供必要贷款的关键职能，而是从事贸易和中介业务，享受 57% 的企业利润，并通过不成比例的奖励制度耗尽人才库，而经济正处于衰退之中，失业率超过 10%。公共教育的失败（25% 的辍学率），加上全球化和外包的现实，导致了令人遗憾的持续结构性失业。但最重要的是，政治体系在人口极端两极分化的情况下，处于无休止的连任状态，玩着零和胜负游戏。它无力应对所面临的日益复杂的形势和挑战。

To sustain a growth paradigm, based on biological thinking, requires increasing levels of consumption. Unfortunately sustaining double-digit growth, which has become the unquestionable expectation of “stock market capitalism,” is not feasible and the dominant growth paradigm, despite its tremendous success, is reaching its carrying capacity. The problem is reinforced by the behavior of a financial sector with a volume-based business model. The banking sector, instead of performing its critical function of providing necessary loans for operation of the economy, is engaged in trade and middleman-ship, enjoying 57% of corporate profit and draining the talent pool with a disproportional reward system, while the economy is in recession with more than a 10% rate of unemployment. Failure of public education (25% dropout rate), combined with the realities of globalization, and outsourcing have produced the unfortunate persistent levels of structural unemployment. But above all, the political system, with a radically polarized population, is engaged in a perpetual state of re-election and playing the zero-sum win/lose game. It is in no position to deal with the emerging level of complexity and challenge confronting it.

不幸的是，任何单打独斗都无法化解这一复杂局面。也许是时候质疑我们的增长模式和分析思维的有效性了。模式的转变可能是必要的。

Unfortunately, dissolving this complex mess is beyond the capability of any disjointed efforts. Maybe the time has come to question the validity our growth paradigm and analytical thinking. A shift in paradigm may be in order.

设计系统架构的第一步是定义系统的边界并了解其预期运行的环境。

The first step in designing system architecture is to define the system's boundary and appreciate the environment in which it intends to operate.

要定义系统的边界，我们需要了解其利益相关者的行为。组织的利益相关者是任何直接受组织行为影响并因此与组织绩效有利害关系的个人或团体。因此，我们需要了解以下几点：主要利益相关者是谁？他们的期望是什么？从他们的角度来看，系统的理想属性是什么？他们的影响力是什么？他们控制（或影响）哪些关键变量？例如，在市场经济中，客户提供营业收入，老板定义会员资格，股东支付资本，供应商是互补技术的来源，分销商提供客户渠道。然而，利益和影响力并不一定齐头并进；高利益往往与低影响力相伴而生，反之亦然。例如，影响力最高的客户（拒绝他们的惠顾）在系统中的利益水平非常低。另一方面，在系统中利益非常高的员工通常影响力较低。影响力非常大的股东利益最低。如果不高兴，他们只需把钱拿走。

To define a system's boundary we need to understand the behavior of its stakeholders. A stakeholder of an organization is any individual or group who is directly affected by what the organization does and therefore has a stake in its performance. Therefore, we need to know the following: Who are the major stakeholders? What are their expectations? What are the desired properties of the system from their perspective? What is their influence? Which critical variables do they control (or influence)? For example, in a market economy the customer provides the operating income, the boss defines the membership, stockholders pay the capital, suppliers are the source of complementary technologies, and distributors provide access to customers. However, stake and influence do not necessarily go hand in hand; a high stake is often coupled with low influence, and vice versa. For example, customers with the highest level of influence (refusing their patronage) show a very low level of stake in the system. On the other hand, employees with a very high stake in the system often have low level of influence. Shareholders with very high influence have the least at stake. If unhappy, they simply take their money out.

正如我们之前提到的，系统的边界是一个主观概念，由参与参与者的利益和影响力和/或权威程度定义。因此，系统由所有能够被参与参与者充分影响或控制的变量组成。同时，系统必须保持可行的环境由所有那些虽然会影响系统行为但不能被参与设计者直接影响或控制的变量组成。

As we alluded to before, the system's boundary is a subjective construct defined by the interest and level of influence and/or authority of the participating actors. Therefore the system consists of all variables that could be sufficiently influenced or controlled by the participating actors. Meanwhile, the environment in which the system must remain viable consists of all those variables that, although affecting the system's behavior, could not be directly influenced or controlled by the participating designers.

至于竞争基础的变化，请考虑这样一个事实：我们已经过了基于零件和劳动力可互换性的大规模生产时代。我们已经进入了大规模定制时代，在这个时代，成功的定义是生产小批量定制产品，并降低盈亏平衡点。1999 年，本田汽车公司某一车型的盈亏平衡点是 2000 辆汽车，而福特汽车公司需要 50 万辆同款汽车才能实现盈亏平衡。规模经济和对简单程序的掌握是大规模生产的基石，但多技能知识型员工现在是大规模定制的核心要求。全球化意味着价格是在全球市场上确定的，因此，它被认为是一个不可控变量，而成本则成为可控变量（目标成本）。在“成本加成经济”中，成本被认为是不可控的，而价格是可控变量（目标定价）。当自动化成本超过劳动力成本时，执行例行工作的效率曾经是一种美德。数字革命颠覆了这一等式。计算机越来越便宜，已经让“狭隘技能”和“简单程序”方法过时了。当需要执行特定程序时，计算机是理想的角色。当今的知识工作者能够将所需的任何知识片段组合在一起，以产生集成解决方案。

As for the change in the bases of competition, consider the fact that we are past the age of mass production based on the interchangeability of parts and labor. We have entered the mass customization era where success is defined by producing smaller batches of customized products at lower break-even points. In 1999 Honda's break-even point for a given model was two thousand cars, whereas Ford Motor Company needed five hundred thousand units of the same model car to break even. Economy of scale and mastery of a simple procedure was the cornerstone of mass production, but the multi-skilled knowledge worker is now the core requirement of mass customization. Globalization means that price is set in the global marketplace, therefore, it is considered an uncontrollable variable and the cost becomes the controllable variable (target costing). In the “cost plus economy” cost is considered uncontrollable and price is the controllable variable (target pricing). Efficiency in performing a routine used to be a virtue when the cost of automation outweighed the cost of labor. The digital revolution has reversed the equation. Increasingly cheaper computers have rendered the “narrow skill” and “simple procedure” approach obsolete. When it comes to performing a specific procedure the computer is the ideal actor. Knowledge workers of today are capable of putting together whatever pieces of know-how it takes to produce an integrated solution.

曾经有一段时间，问题可以在一个学科或部门的范围内巧妙地表述和方便地解决。然而，现代问题越来越复杂，相互关联。这些问题很混乱；它们成捆出现，需要不同的方法。当今的知识工作者不仅需要胜任自己的职业，而且还应该密切了解他们将要合作的总体背景和整个过程。

There was a time when problems could be neatly formulated and conveniently solved within the confines of a single discipline or department. Modern problems, however, are increasingly complex and interrelated. These problems are messy; they come in bundles and require a different approach. The knowledge workers of today are not only required to be competent in their own vocation, but they are supposed to be intimately aware of the total context and overall process within which they are to collaborate.

在组织发展过程中援引的许多常识性陈述都被证明是违反直觉的。意外因素并不是因为人们故意不诚实。新出现的后果与预期相矛盾，因为运营原则植根于属于不同范式的假设。除非基本前提浮出水面并规划出最终后果，否则这种意外是不可避免的。

Many common sense statements invoked in the process of developing organizations prove counterintuitive. The surprise element is not because people are knowingly disingenuous. Emerging consequences contradict expectations because the operating principles are rooted in assumptions that belong to different paradigms. Such surprises are inevitable unless the underlying premises are surfaced and their eventual consequences are mapped out.

企业的目标本质上是由其隐含范式定义的。如果所讨论的组织以机械方式运作，那么它就被视为其所有者的工具。因此，它的目的就是服务于其所有者的目的。当然，工具的性能标准是效率和可靠性。在生物运作模式下，组织的目的是生存，因此其性能标准是不惜一切代价的增长。利润作为增长手段具有​​额外的社会价值，并克服了机械时代的负面污名。由于在社会文化运作模式下，组织被认为是有目的的成员的自愿联合，因此其目的是通过用更少的资源做更多的事情来服务其成员和环境。

The purpose of business enterprise is essentially defined by its implicit paradigm. If the organization in question operates in a mechanistic mode, then it is considered to be a tool of its owner. Its purpose therefore would be to serve the purpose of its owner. Performance criteria of a tool, of course, would be efficiency and reliability. Purpose of organization in a biological mode of operation is survival, thus its performance criterion would be growth at any cost. Profit as the means of growth finds additional social value and overcomes the negative stigma of the mechanistic era. Since organization in a sociocultural mode of operation is considered to be a voluntary association of purposeful members, its purpose would be to serve its members and its environment by doing more and more with less and less.

理想未来愿景的初步草图通常可以在交互设计的第一轮迭代后完成。虽然我们被告知愿景是白日梦者的逃避机制，但没有愿景就没有方向感。没有愿景，所有可能性都具有同等价值；就没有判断新兴机会相关性的基础。

The initial sketches of the vision of the desired future usually can be put together after the first iteration of interactive design. Although we are told that visions are escape mechanisms of daydreamers, without a vision there will be no sense of direction. Without a vision all possibilities would have equal values; there would be no basis to judge the relevancy of the emerging opportunities.

另一方面，商业模式定义了企业创造价值、创建可交付产品包并将其与金钱进行交换的方式。如今，在开发新商业模式时，人们表现出惊人的独创性，这正在彻底影响传统的商业概念。例如，以搜索引擎谷歌为例。通过向一群消费者提供免费服务，它可以从广告商那里赚取大量资金，以至于超过了道琼斯指数中列出的巨头的价值。像微软那样，创建一个价值数十亿美元的企业来创建、打包和销售独立于计算机硬件的操作系统，对于我们这些在 20 世纪 60 年代为 IBM 工作的人来说是不可想象的。在 20 世纪 90 年代初，我参与了一家财富 100 强公司的收购，担任顾问，收购了一家价值 100 亿美元的企业。所有服务提供商（法律、财务和管理）向客户收取的总费用不到 50 万美元。这笔费用是根据实际花费的时间乘以小时费率计算的。如今，按照按百分比计算的商业模式，完成同样的任务将花费2亿多美元。

The business model, on the other hand, defines the way a business generates value, creates a deliverable package, and exchanges it with money. Today amazing originality is shown when developing new business models, which is radically influencing the traditional business concepts. Consider, for example, the case of the search engine Google. By providing free service to a group of consumers it can make so much money from advertisers that it exceeds the value of the giants listed in the Dow Jones index. Creating a multi-billion-dollar business to create, package, and sell operating systems independently from computer hardware, as is done by Microsoft, was inconceivable for those of us who worked for IBM during the 1960s. In the early 1990s, I was involved with a Fortune 100 company as a consultant in the acquisition of a $10 billion business. The total sum of money that all service providers — legal, financial, and management — charged the client was less than $500,000. This fee was based on actual time spent multiplied by the hourly rate. Today the same task would cost over $200 million based on a business model that works on percentage.

传统上，其中一个维度被指定为主要维度，迫使其他两个维度处于从属地位。

Traditionally one of these dimensions has been designated as primary, forcing the other two into subordinating roles.

产品型企业的成功通常由其产品部门的成功来衡量，这就是为什么一切都很容易妥协并服从于产品。然而，当某项技术的潜在价值以某种方式超过其支持的产品的价值时，企业就会面临困境。

The success of a product-based business is usually measured by the success of its product divisions, which is why everything is easily compromised and subordinated to the product. However, when the potential value of a given technology somehow exceeds the value of the product it supports, the business faces a dilemma.

不幸的是，经验表明，在这些情况下，技术总是会受到损害。在以产品为基础的业务中，产品经理是老板。他们只把技术视为产品的竞争优势；因此，在以产品为基础的业务中，技术永远没有机会实现其潜力。不少案例都支持这一论断，但最引人注目的是第一代苹果操作系统（著名的图形界面）的命运。这个非凡的操作系统被专门用于销售苹果电脑，当时它的潜力远远高于当时它支持的最初苹果产品的最大潜力。微软证明了这一点，其声名鹊起的 Windows 95 就是对所有电脑生产商使用的最初苹果操作系统的模仿。据报道，IBM 花费数十亿美元裁掉了大约 20 万人——有人说是当时最优秀的知识型员工。但它没有考虑利用其先进的“数字技术”和最先进的“C4 技术”成为当时最具爆炸性潜力的市场——“电子封装”的主要参与者。

Unfortunately, experience shows that, in these cases, technology is always compromised. In a product-based business, the product managers are the bosses. They see technology only as a competitive advantage for their product; therefore, technology will never get the chance to realize its potential in the context of a product-based business. Quite a few cases support this assertion, but the most conspicuous is the fate of the first Apple operating system (the famous graphic interface). This phenomenal operating system was used exclusively to sell Apple computers when its potential had been much higher than the maximum potential of the initial Apple products it supported at the time. This was proven by Microsoft, whose claim to fame, Windows 95, was an imitation of the initial Apple operating system used by all computer producers. It was reported that IBM spent billions to lay off about 200,000 people — some say the best available knowledge workers. But it did not consider capitalizing on its advanced “digital technology” and state-of-the-art “C4 technology” to become the major player in the most potentially explosive market of the time — “electronics packaging.”

然而，国防工业市场一夜之间崩盘所遭受的创伤再次证实，选择单一生存模式的代价非常高昂。该行业无法利用其对新兴互联网技术的访问和了解并不令人意外。管理技术需要一套与管理产品和/或市场所需的标准不同的标准。

However, the trauma of the defense industry, when its market collapsed overnight, was another confirmation that the price tag on selecting a single pattern of existence is very high. The industry's inability to take advantage of its access and knowledge of emerging Internet technology was not surprising. Managing technology requires a different set of criteria than those necessary to manage products and/or markets.

公司利用材料科学和加工技术，不断寻找能够生产并供应给不同市场的新产品。管理技术型企业不仅需要更广阔的规划视野，还需要具备在不同环境下运用相同知识的能力。

Using its materials science and processing technology, it continually searches for new products that it can produce and offer in different markets. Managing a technology-based business not only needs broader planning vision, but also the ability to use the same knowledge in different contexts.

每种方法的成功或失败取决于它与当时出现的竞争挑战的兼容性。由于竞争博弈会随着时间而变化，它们迫使公司将战略重点从一个维度转移到另一个维度。由于每种战略在权力和责任方面都具有组织含义，因此战略的变化需要改变组织结构和企业的主导文化。随着竞争加剧和变化越来越频繁，这种单一维度的方法变得越来越无效。为了寻找有效的竞争基础而从一个维度转移到另一个维度会导致组织动荡和战略混乱。定期重组带来的浪费和挫折使得寻找替代解决方案成为必要。

The success or failure of each approach depends on its compatibility with the emerging competitive challenge at the time. Because competitive games change over time, they force companies to switch their strategic emphasis from one dimension to another. Since each strategy has organizational implications in terms of authority and responsibility, changes in strategy require changes in the organizational structure and the dominant culture of the business. As competition intensifies and the changes become more frequent, this unidimensional approach becomes more ineffective. Shifts from one dimension to another in search of the effective competitive base cause organizational turmoil and strategic confusion. The waste and frustration associated with periodic restructuring have necessitated a search for alternative solutions.

目标是充分利用整个价值链，积极创造三个维度之间的协同效应。互动架构基于管理技术、产品和市场之间的互动。

The objective is to capitalize on the totality of the value chain and actively generate synergy among the three dimensions. An interactive architecture is based on managing the interactions among technology, product, and markets.

新兴的多维模块化结构，每个维度都有不同的商业模式和奖励制度，消除了围绕任何一个业务维度的从属或次优化的需要，消除了定期重组，并从一个维度转移到另一个维度，以寻找有效的竞争基础。

The emerging multidimensional modular structure, with a different business model and reward system for each dimension, dissolves the need for subordination or suboptimization around any one business dimension, eliminates periodic restructuring, and shifts from one dimension to another in search of an effective competitive base.

在不可预测的动荡环境中，任何设计的可行性都取决于其探索和利用整个价值链中新兴机会的能力。这些机会来自技术、产品和市场之间的互动，而单一的文化和架构无法实现这些机会。确定多元文化架构基本维度的平台是价值链初始元素发展的起点。随着业务的成熟和稳定，新的元素将被添加。

In an unpredictable, turbulent environment, the viability of any design depends on its capability to explore and exploit emerging opportunities all along the value chain. These opportunities, which emerge out of interactions among technology, product, and markets, remain inaccessible to unidimensional cultures and architecture. A platform that identifies the basic dimensions of the multicultural architecture is the starting point from which the initial elements of the value chain will evolve. As the business gains maturity and stability, new elements will be added.

在制定企业的战略意图时，我们必须记住，竞争优势是一种动态的相对现象；在不同的情况下，针对不同类别的用户，竞争优势是不同的。例如，作为竞争基础的时间因素，对于上午 10 点和下午 5 点的超市购物者来说是不一样的。前者往往花时间，而后者则更关心节省时间。在一种情况下可能是一种优势，在另一种情况下可能是一种劣势。这解释了便利店尽管价格较高却仍然成功的原因。

In formulating the strategic intent of an enterprise we must remember that competitive advantage is a dynamic and relative phenomenon; it is different in different contexts and in reference to different classes of users. For example, the element of time, as a basis for competition, is not the same for supermarket shoppers at 10 a.m. and those at 5 p.m. Often the former are spending time, whereas the latter are interested in saving time. What might be an advantage in one context could be a disadvantage in another. This explains the success of convenience stores despite their higher prices.

战略意图可以表述为核心竞争力。在这种情况下，核心竞争力是整个组织的属性；它不能只存在于一个部门。创造将知识转移到不同环境的能力需要多种学习和应用来源。

Strategic intent can be formulated as a core competency. In this context a core competency is the attribute of the organization as a whole; it cannot be housed in a single division. Creation of the ability to transfer knowledge to different contexts requires multiple sources of learning and application.

为了在交换中实现自身利益，一个有目的的系统应该回馈其环境。因此，它需要接触一群具有购买力的潜在用户，这些用户对它可以生产的产品或服务有需求或渴望。事实上，真正的客户是令人头疼的。他/她有你想要的东西，而他/她的满足感，在与其他供应来源的竞争中，是你为了得到它而必须付出的代价。

To serve its own interest in an exchange, a purposeful system ought to have something to give back to its environment. Therefore, it needs access to a group of potential users with purchasing power who have a need or desire for the product or service it can produce. A true customer, in reality, is a pain in the neck. He/she has something you want, and his/her satisfaction, in competition with other sources of supply, is the price you have to pay to get it.

选择产品市场利基是定义企业功能和设计其架构的第一步。我们需要回答以下问题：我们试图解决谁的问题？我们提供什么解决方案？我们将如何接触目标客户？最后，目标客户是否有足够的购买力来支付这个解决方案的费用？

Selecting a product-market niche is the first step in defining an enterprise's function and designing its architecture. We need to answer the following questions: Whose problem are we trying to solve? What solutions are we offering? How will we access the target customers? And, finally, will the target customers have sufficient purchasing power to pay for this solution?

竞争优势是企业生产的产品属性。对于特定类别的用户来说，竞争优势是影响其选择的差异。竞争优势必须能够转化为供应商的价值。

Competitive advantage is an attribute of outputs produced by an enterprise. It is a difference that makes a difference, for a given class of users, in affecting their choice. And it must be transferable to a value for the provider.

要选择理想的产品市场利基，必须区分客户群。细分市场的方法有很多种。每个细分市场都会揭示一些有关市场性质和目标客户行为的新信息。使用尽可能多的标准来区分用户特征并确定他们的购买习惯。最有用的细分市场是识别以下特征的细分市场：

To select a desired product-market niche, it is necessary to differentiate the customer base. There are many different ways to segment a market. Each segment reveals something new about the nature of the market and the behavior of the target customers. Use as many criteria as you can to differentiate user characteristics and identify their purchasing habits. The most useful segmentation is the one that identifies:

传统上，组织理论处理两种类型的关系：（1）责任（谁负责什么）和（2）权力（谁向谁报告）。

Traditionally, organizational theory deals with two types of relationships: (1) responsibility (who is responsible for what) and (2) authority (who reports to whom).

用于将整体划分为责任领域以及确定其相对重要性（权力线）的标准代表了组织理论之间的主要差异。这些标准主要围绕系统的三个组成部分发展而来，这并不令人意外：投入（技术）、产出（产品）和环境（市场）。

The criteria used for dividing the whole into areas of responsibility, and for determining their relative importance (line of authority), represent the major differences among organization theories. These criteria, not surprisingly, have evolved primarily around three components of a system: input (technology), output (products), and environment (markets).

根据特定时间竞争博弈的性质，使用优先级方案将一个组成部分指定为主要组成部分，将其他两个组成部分指定为从属组成部分。例如，当生产能力是竞争的决定性因素时，投入成为主要关注点，从而使市场和产品从属于制造。营销时代，重点从生产转移到市场，从而制造从属于营销。似乎自我强加的单维组织概念阻碍了多维替代方案的实现。

Depending on the nature of the competitive game at any given time, a priorities scheme is used to designate one component as primary and the other two as subordinates. For example, when the ability to produce was the defining factor of competition, input became the primary concern rendering market and product subordinate to manufacturing. The marketing era saw the shift of emphasis from production to market and thus subordination of manufacturing to marketing. It seems that a self-imposed unidimensional concept of organization has prevented the realization of a multidimensional alternative.

对于大多数设计师来说，基于结构化任务、细分和职能层级协调的单维组织模式似乎是唯一可接受的工作组织方式。主流管理文化仍然非常重视命令和控制，认为组织结构中的任何形式的变化都是不可接受的、浪费的，充其量是不切实际的。

For a majority of designers, the unidimensional mode of organization based on structurally defined tasks, segmentation, and hierarchical coordination of functions seems the only acceptable way of organizing work. A predominant management culture continues to value command and control very dearly and considers any form of variety in the organizational structure unacceptable, wasteful, and at best impractical.

如本章前面所讨论的，多维结构假设三个共同标准——投入（技术）、产出（产品）和环境（市场）——是互补的。将它们视为相互依赖的维度并管理它们的相互作用，当竞争环境发生变化而需要将重点从一个方向转移到另一个方向时，例如从产品转向市场，反之亦然，就无需定期进行重组。

As discussed earlier in this chapter, the multidimensional structure assumes that the three common criteria — input (technology), output (products), and environment (markets) — are complements. Treating them as interdependent dimensions and managing their interactions eliminates the need for periodic reorganization when a change in the competitive environment necessitates a change of emphasis from one orientation to another, for example, from products to markets, or vice versa.

任何组织的生存能力都取决于其积极适应新兴竞争环境不断变化的要求的能力。适应能力需要某种形式的灵活性和响应能力，而这又要求在系统中建立一定程度的冗余。

The viability of any organization depends on its ability to adapt actively to the changing requirements of the emerging competitive game. The ability to adapt requires some form of flexibility and responsiveness, which in turn demands that some degree of redundancy be built into the system.

嵌入多维方案的模块化结构可以实现所需的灵活性，通过将注意力从微观管理各个部分（权力）转移到宏观管理交互（权力去做），从而创建一个自适应的学习系统。

A modular structure embedded in a multidimensional scheme can achieve the required level of flexibility to create an adaptive, learning system by shifting its attention from micro-managing the parts (power-over) to macro-managing the interactions (power-to-do).

组织的核心在于执行力。它不应与控制力相混淆。执行力是组织效力和权力复制的基础，而控制力则与支配有关。强大的组织并非建立在无能的原则之上。当执行力在专用模块中复制时，它会成倍增加。这些模块只要满足其所属更大系统的接口和功能要求，就享有相当大的自由。在任何系统中，差异化都是使系统保持活力和效力的因素。具有差异化和整合能力的组织为自己和他人创造了真正的价值。

Power-to-do is what organization is all about. It should not be confused with power-over. Power-to-do is the foundation of organizational potency and duplication of power, whereas power-over is about domination. Potent organizations are not built on impotent principles. Power-to-do multiplies when it is duplicated in special purpose modules. These modules enjoy considerable freedom as long as they meet the interface and functional requirements of the larger system of which they are a part. In any system it is differentiation that keeps the system alive and potent. Organizations that differentiate and integrate create real value for themselves and others.

在我看来，多维模块化设计是处理复杂性和不确定性最实用的方法。它使实施复杂的设计变得可行，而不会迷失方向。

Multidimensional, modular design, in my experience, is the most practical means of handling complexity and uncertainty. It makes it feasible to implement a complex design without getting lost in the process.

多维模块化结构由一组不同但相互关联的平台组成。每个平台代表系统的一个维度，表示独特的环境、操作模式和预定义的性能标准和措施。每个平台都承载一组具有相同行为特征的特殊用途模块。平台之间的关系和接口被明确定义，将它们集成到整体概念中。各部分作为独立系统运行，具有相对自我控制的能力，并充当连贯整体的负责任成员，能够有效响应包含系统的要求。

Multidimensional modular structure consists of a set of distinct, but interrelated, platforms. Each platform represents a dimension of the system signifying a unique context, mode of operation, and predefined set of performance criteria and measures. Each platform hosts a set of special purpose modules with the same set of behavioral characteristics. Relationships and the interfaces among platforms are explicitly defined, integrating them into a concept of the whole. Parts operate as independent systems with the ability to be relatively self-controlling and act as responsible members of a coherent whole with the ability to respond effectively to the requirements of the containing system.

以下一组属性代表了期望的规范集，有望指导预期设计的开发。

The following set of properties represents the desired set of specifications that are expected to guide the development of the intended design.

奥奈达民族的架构由七个维度组成：五个运营维度、一个治理维度和一个司法维度。架构的所有维度都在商业委员会的指导和领导下运作。它们被确定为

The Oneida Nation's architecture consists of seven dimensions: five operating, one governing, and one judicial. All dimensions of the architecture function under the guidance and leadership of a Business Committee. They are identified as

这七个维度被认为是建立一个能够实现其期望标准的可行国家所必需的和充分的。

These seven dimensions are identified as necessary and sufficient to create a viable nation capable of realizing its desired specifications.

五个运营维度中的任何一个都不应从属于其他维度。每个维度都必须得到同等的重视，并以同样的力度去追求。然而，这些维度的绩效标准不一定相同。例如，核心服务维度中的单位将是绩效中心（其预算将基于总吞吐量的给定百分比），而业务维度中的单位将全部是利润中心。从长远来看，建立新的社会计算应该在与整个系统的利益相兼容的范围内，促进从成本到绩效的转变，并最终转向以利润为中心的运营模式，最终使它们从投入导向走向产出导向。

None of the five operating dimensions should be subordinate to the others. Each one must be treated with the same attention and pursued with the same vigor as the others. However, the performance criteria for these dimensions will not necessarily be the same. For example, whereas units in the core services dimension will be performance centers (their budget will be based on a given percentage of total throughput), the units in the business dimension will all be profit centers. Creation of a new social calculus, in the long term, should facilitate, to the extent that it will be compatible with the interests of the system as a whole, the shift from cost to performance and, eventually, to a profit-centered mode of operation, ultimately maturing them from an input to an output orientation.

为了体现 BC 扩大的治理职责，其名称将更改为管理机构 (GB)。在新形式下，GB 将越来越多地集中其立法和政策制定权，并将其部分行政职责和司法职能下放至架构的相关平台。

To reflect the expanded governance responsibility of BC, its name will be changed to the Governing Body (GB). In the new format, the GB will increasingly concentrate on its legislative and policy setting authority and relegate parts of its executive responsibility and judicial function to the relevant platforms of the architecture.

为了加强全球政府的监督权威，并在每个平台适当地复制其权力，将在每个平台上建立一个规划、学习和控制委员会 (PLCB)。全球政府的指定成员和参谋长将加入每个平台的董事会。PLCB 的创建和组成将有效地使系统同时集中和分散。全球政府的活动重点放在立法、政策制定和监督上，同时将其部分行政权力下放给行政办公室和运营平台，将增强系统的决策能力并提高其响应能力。将司法责任委托给独立的司法系统也将是朝着适当分离司法权和行政权迈出的可喜一步。这种分离也将起到安全阀的作用。它将把大部分冲突引导到它们所属的司法系统，从而使政治系统摆脱成为吸收两极化国家压力的唯一渠道的难以维持的局面。

To enhance the monitoring authority of the GB and properly duplicate its power in each platform, a Planning, Learning, and Control Board (PLCB) will be established on each platform. A designated member of the GB and the chief of staff will be on the board of each platform. Creation and composition of the PLCBs will effectively empower the system to be centralized and decentralized at the same time. The focus of GB activities on legislation, policy setting, and oversight, along with the relegation of some of its executive authority to the executive office and operating platforms, will enhance the decision-making ability of the system and increase its responsiveness. Delegation of the judicial responsibility to an independent judicial system will also be a welcome move toward proper separation of judicial and executive powers. This separation will also serve as a safety valve. It will channel a major portion of the conflicts to the judicial system where they belong, thus relieving the political system from the untenable situation of being the only channel to absorb the pressures of a polarized nation.

治理平台将包括

The governance platform will consist of

会员制与国家建设有关。会员制为参与提供了一个平台，有助于化解冲突、创造共同的理想未来形象，并赋予领导人代表选民有效和果断采取行动的权力。

The membership systems are about nation building. Membership provides a platform for participation to dissolve conflict, create a shared image of a desired future, and empower leaders to act effectively and decisively on behalf of their constituents.

奥奈达民族的成功最终取决于其成员的能力。奥奈达人是其所属体系的目的和手段。与任何其他人类体系一样，奥奈达民族的好坏取决于其成员。因此，奥奈达人的发展是该体系的第二个最关键的维度，奥奈达人是该体系的人力资产。

The success of the Oneida Nation will ultimately depend on the competence of its members. Oneidas are both the ends and the means of the system of which they are the parts. Like any other human system, the Oneida Nation is only as good as its members. The development of Oneidas, the system's human assets, therefore constitutes the second most critical dimension of the architecture.

学习维度的功能是发展人力资产。它旨在重振成员的能力和愿望，以满足他们个人和集体的需求和愿望。没有愿望的能力是无能的，正如没有能力的愿望是无用的一样。

The function of the learning dimension is the development of human assets. It is about reinvigorating the ability and desire of the members to satisfy their needs and desires both individually and collectively. Ability without desire is impotent, just as desire without ability is sterile.

文化发展涉及欲望，而职业发展涉及能力。欲望是创造一个有成就的社会的基本要素。文化和精神动员涉及欲望维度。能力，无论多高，都只是成功的必要条件。如果没有相关欲望的激励，能力往往会保持潜伏状态。如果没有欲望，能力就只是潜力而已。

Cultural development involves desires while professional development involves abilities. Desires are the essential ingredients for creating an achieving society. Cultural and spiritual mobilization deals with the desire dimension. Abilities, no matter how high, are only the necessary condition for success. To the extent that they are not energized by relevant desires, abilities tend to remain latent. In the absence of desires, abilities would be mere potentials.

文化的活力在于它能够充当实现社会共同梦想的载体。强大的文化可以重新点燃必要的欲望，否则梦想就会沦为白日梦。复兴需要重新诠释文化符号，使新的目标能够被集体合法化并有效追求，同时保持群体认同的连续性。归根结底，文化活力的衡量标准是能否成功地让传统符号和形象支持进步社会的新兴需求。尊重文化并不意味着倒退，进步也不应该意味着与过去的决裂。旧价值观是为了满足新需求而诞生的。在国家发展的背景下，创新就是让这些强大的引擎重新与新兴需求联系起来，这些需求不断取代那些可能已经过时的需求。

The vitality of a culture is in its potency to act as a vehicle for the realization of the society's shared dreams. A potent culture can rekindle the necessary desires without which dreams degenerate into daydreams. Renaissance requires reinterpretation of the cultural symbols in such a way that new goals can be collectively legitimized and effectively pursued while the continuity of group identity is preserved. Ultimately, cultural vitality is measured by success in getting the traditional symbols and images to support the emerging needs of a progressive society. Respect for culture does not imply regression nor should progress mean a break with the past. Old values were born in response to new needs. In the context of national development, innovation is getting these powerful engines reconnected to the emerging needs that keep replacing the ones that may have outlived the reason for which they were born.

另一方面，能力涉及制定有效应对新挑战所需知识的操作化。它们涉及定义问题和设计解决方案的整套方法、诀窍和技能。因此，专业发展是利用能力维度的载体。它需要一套以专业为基础的教育体系。该系统的设计应使其能够 (1) 与系统的特殊需求兼容，同时 (2) 能够满足其所属外部环境（联邦和州）的许可要求。外部要求很容易实现，因此奥奈达族的教育系统应将自己定位为美国教育系统的补充，而不是重复美国教育系统。因此，该系统应避免生产它能从外部采购的东西。

Abilities, on the other hand, involve operationalization of the knowledge required for formulating effective responses to new challenges. They involve a whole set of approaches, know-how, and skills for defining problems and designing solutions. Professional development, therefore, is the vehicle to leverage the ability dimension. It requires a professional-based system of education. The system should be designed so that it can be (1) compatible with the system's special needs and, at the same time, (2) capable of meeting licensing requirements of the external environment (federal and state) of which it is a part. The external requirements are so easily achievable that the educational system of the Oneida Nation should position itself to function as complementary to, rather than a redundant duplication of, the U.S. educational system. The system should therefore avoid producing what it can procure from the outside.

一个国家要想自立自强，就必须能够有效地创造和分配财富、产品和服务。它必须能够解决影响生活水平的所有因素，如健康、食品、住房和成员国的其他物质需求。创造和分配是同一枚硬币的两面。没有适当分配的创造会滋生疏离，而没有充分创造的分配将导致贫困的公平分配。自力更生要想自给自足，就必须以多样性为基础。历史对依赖单一生存来源的社会并不友善。

To be viable and self-reliant, a nation should be able to generate and disseminate wealth, products, and services effectively. It should be capable of addressing all those factors that affect the standard of living, such as health, food, housing, and other material needs of the membership. Generation and dissemination are two sides of the same coin. Generation without proper distribution breeds alienation, whereas distribution without adequate generation will lead to equitable distribution of poverty. Self-reliance, to be self-sustaining, needs to be grounded in diversity. History has not been kind to societies that relied on a single source of survival.

商业体系是负责扩大和调动国家生存能力的架构维度。它负责创业和商业发展，参与创造商业机会并支持成员成功发现、抓住、管理和利用新兴机会。

The business system is the dimension of architecture responsible for expanding and mobilizing the Nation's capacity for viability. In charge of entrepreneurial and business development, it will be involved in creating business opportunities and supporting the members to successfully detect, seize, manage, and exploit the emerging opportunities.

归根结底，真正的财富在于有能力将机会转化为满足自己和他人需求和愿望所必需的价值。成功为集体和个人的人生成就目标做出贡献是人们赢得掌控自己命运权利的重要标志。经济成功归根结底在于行使选择的自由。贫穷最丑陋的表现是无能为力。

Ultimately, real wealth is about the competence to convert opportunities into values that are essential for satisfying both one's own needs and desires and those of others. Success in contributing to both collective and individual life-achievement goals is a vital sign of people who have earned the right to be in charge of their destinies. Economic success is, ultimately, about freedom to exercise choice. The ugliest manifestation of poverty is powerlessness.

或许，企业职能部门的任何其他使命都比帮助社区繁荣发展和学习实现更高水平的自力更生更重要。印第安人一直都是骄傲而足智多谋的民族。他们的文化充满了企业家精神。尽管他们重视社群主义，但他们也推崇坚韧不拔的个人主义、自力更生和勇敢。

Perhaps no other mission of the business function is as important as helping communities to prosper while learning to attain higher levels of self-reliance. The Indians have always been proud and resourceful people. Their culture is replete with qualities that are essentially entrepreneurial. Although they valued communitarianism, they have also celebrated rugged individualism, self-reliance, and bravery.

成功取决于愿望和能力。愿望和能力是无法替代的。它们既不能被给予，也不能从外部强加。这或许就是为什么托管制度无论意图多么高尚，都有可能违背其最初设立的目的。托管制度本意是帮助，却可能导致无助。托管制度旨在创造自主权，却可能沦为依赖。托管制度本意是维护理想，却最终腐蚀理想。经验表明，出于良好意图的官僚化援助体系可能会带来与直觉相反的破坏性后果。这种趋势无论多么有限，都需要扭转。答案是补贴需求而不是补贴供应。

Success is about desires and abilities. Desires and abilities do not have substitutes. They cannot be given nor be imposed from the outside. That is perhaps the reason why trusteeship, no matter how noble the intentions, has the potential of defeating the very purposes for which it was originally set up. Intended to help, it can lead to helplessness. Mandated to create autonomy, it can degenerate into dependency. Meant to preserve ideals, it can end up corrupting them. Experience shows that well-intentioned systems of bureaucratized assistance can prove, counterintuitively, devastating. This trend, however limited, needs to be reversed. The answer is subsidizing demand instead of subsidizing the supply.

为了实现服务国家经济利益的使命，商业系统将从事所有主要旨在

To realize its mission in serving the Nation's economic interests, the business system will engage in all of the activities that are primarily designed to

商业发展包括识别商业机会、筹集资金、注​​入种子资金、投资、合作、运营管理以及提供管理支持服务。它将积极探索和识别奥奈达企业家的潜在机会。它还将支持奥奈达人了解并鼓励他们利用现有的联邦规定，为特定少数群体争取特殊的商业特权。

Business development includes identification of business opportunities, raising capital, infusion of seed money, investment, partnership, management of operation, and provision of management support services. It will actively explore and identify the potential opportunities for Oneida entrepreneurs. It will also support Oneidas about, and encourage them to take advantage of, the available federal provisions for securing special business privileges for specific minorities.

业务维度中的所有单位都将成为利润中心。如果管理层出于某种原因认为有必要为特定用户提供特定服务补贴，那么它必须通过补贴需求而不是补贴供应来做到这一点。这种基于市场的纪律将保护服务的提供者和用户免受官僚化关系的不良影响，这种官僚化关系会导致提供者对用户傲慢和麻木不仁，而用户则无助并依赖其供应商。

All of the units in the business dimension will be profit centers. If and when management finds it necessary, for whatever reason, to subsidize a particular service to a particular user, it will have to do so by subsidizing the demand and never the supply. Such a market-based discipline will protect both the provider and the user of the service from the unhealthy effects of bureaucratized relations leading to providers' arrogance and insensitivity toward the user and the users' helplessness and dependency on its supplier.

核心服务将包括三项基本服务，这些服务对于维护国家的物质基础设施和社会稳定必不可少。这些服务将使所有成员共同受益。

Core services will consist of three basic services that are necessary to maintain the physical infrastructure and social stability of the Nation. These services will benefit all the members collectively and indiscriminately.

外部环境维度将提供系统与其所包含环境之间的相互接口。该维度将基于这样的假设：为了生存和发展，奥奈达民族与任何可行的社会系统一样，必须保持开放并不断与其环境中的其他参与者互动。因此，这是一种引导国家分散精力的方法，否则这些精力将被浪费在非战略性甚至相互冲突的活动中，以专注于整个国家面临的外部机遇和威胁。

The external environment dimension will provide mutual interfaces between the system and its containing environment. This dimension will operate on the assumption that, in order to survive and grow, Oneida Nation, like any viable social system, must remain open and continuously interact with the other actors in its environment. It is, therefore, a means of channeling the scattered energies of the Nation that would otherwise be wasted in nonstrategic, and even conflicting, activities to focus on external opportunities and threats facing the Nation as a whole.

没有哪个国家能够独自满足所有需求。自决和自力更生不应与自给自足混为一谈。相互依存意味着双向关系。它需要同时给予和索取。最终，一个发达社会在拥有相同水平的资源的情况下，可以用更少的资源做更多的事情。

No nation is capable of satisfying all of its needs by itself. Self-determination and self-reliance should not be confused with self-sufficiency. Interdependence implies two-way relationships. It requires giving and taking at the same time. Ultimately, a developed society, given the same level of resources, can do more with less.

环境界面，尤其是当一个人代表少数群体时，需要认识到与之相伴的特殊负担和责任。外部看法和群体形象至关重要。就少数群体而言，个人的行为往往会受到更大的关注，因为一个人会自动被视为该群体的典型代表。因此，少数人的行为，无论好坏，都会不成比例地反映整体形象。因此，少数群体应该对他们所投射的形象更加敏感。他们需要更加注意他们的形象被接受的方式。少数群体几乎不能忽视他们的公关敏感性。疏忽和自满可能会付出太大的代价。

Environmental interface, especially where one represents a minority, requires recognition of special burdens and responsibilities that go with it. External perceptions and the group image are crucial. As far as minority groups are concerned, an individual's actions tend to receive much greater attention because one is automatically perceived as a typical representative of the group. Thus, the actions of a few, for better or worse, reflect disproportionately on the image of the whole. Minorities, therefore, ought to be that much more sensitive to the image they project. They need to take much greater care of the way their image is received. Minorities can hardly afford to neglect their public relations sensitivities. Negligence and complacency can prove too costly.

外部环境维度将在以下三个层面发挥作用：

The external environment dimension will operate at the following three levels:

所有三个层级都将确保系统得到充分的信息。通过不断监测环境，他们将及时提供有关代表新出现的威胁和/或机遇的重要趋势和发展的信息。他们还将通过影响各自环境中的事件，不懈地追求奥奈达民族的利益。其理念是影响自己无法控制的地方，并欣赏自己无法影响的地方。

All three levels will make sure that the system is kept adequately informed. By constantly monitoring the environment, they will provide timely inputs on significant trends and developments representing emerging threats and/or opportunities. They will also relentlessly pursue the interests of the Oneida Nation by influencing the events in their respective environments. The idea is to influence where one cannot control and appreciate where one cannot influence.

奥奈达司法系统的两个基本功能如下：

The two basic functions of an Oneida judicial system are as follows:

现行的医疗保健制度起源于疾病护理。它旨在为那些生病并需要医疗护理的人提供服务。利用疾病医疗保健的成本回收方面与三个基本概念有关：服务费、成本加成运营和第三方付款人，定义如下：

The present health-care system has its origin in sickness care. It was designed to provide service to those who fall ill and need medical care. The cost-recovery aspect of utilizing sickness-based health care has been associated with three basic conceptions: fee for service, cost plus operation, and third-party payer, as defined in the following:

当前的模式没有内置的自我控制机制来规范提供者与患者之间的关系。它创造了一个正反馈循环，助长了对更多服务的无止境的需求。只要患者愿意提出要求，提供者愿意提供服务，第三方付款人不介意买单并增加利润，然后再转嫁给最终付款人，需求就会自我滋生。在这种情况下，需求无法合理化。

The current model has no built-in mechanism of self-control to discipline the relationship between the provider and the patient. It has created a positive feedback loop that has fueled an insatiable demand for more services. The demand feeds on itself as long as patients are willing to ask, providers are eager to serve, and third-party payers do not mind picking up the tab and adding a margin before passing it on to the ultimate payer. In such a context, demand cannot be rationalized.

技术的进步扩大了医学不断取得突破的可能性。结果，预期寿命增加，推迟最终退出的愿望导致对技术的需求呈指数级增长。然而，技术只能以高昂的成本推迟最终退出，而且每次这样做都会进一步加剧需求的无止境。这种不惜一切代价推迟最终退出的需求的指数级增长是不能被控制的——尤其是如果成本被方便地转嫁给第三方付款人，让要求苛刻的民众产生持续免费午餐的幻想。

Advances in technology have expanded the possibilities for continuous medical breakthroughs. As a result, life expectancy has increased and the desire to delay the final exit has caused the demand for technology to grow exponentially. However, technology can only delay the final exit at exorbitant costs, and every time it does it further fuels the insatiability of the demand. This exponential growth in demand for postponing the eventuality at all costs cannot be left unchecked — especially if costs are conveniently passed to a third-party payer, leaving the demanding population under the illusion of a continuous free lunch.

该系统似乎已经达到了上限。该系统的利益相关者担心其不负责任地追求更多、更好、更昂贵的医疗服务将带来长期后果，因此开始踩刹车。这迫使增长曲线呈 S 形。

The system seems to have hit its upper limit. Alarmed by the long-term consequences of its own irresponsible demand for more, better, and costlier care, the stakeholders of the system have begun to apply the brakes. This has forced the growth curve into an S-shaped form.

针对这种失控升级的第一个纠正措施是引入 HMO 来管理医疗。为了降低医疗成本的上升，必须开始管理医疗，因为 85% 的运营费用被认为是商品（医疗）成本。然而，大多数 HMO 在管理医疗方面并不成功。相反，他们放弃了这一责任，转而采用合同模式，以批发折扣换取数量。因此，HMO 通过将他们的忠实客户送到医疗保健系统来实现规模经济。虽然这降低了增长率，但控制成本的压力仍在继续，管理医疗的想法再次浮出水面。HMO 被迫使用官僚系统和机械运作模式来管理人类医疗保健系统中最情绪化和最敏感的行为。

The first corrective action against this runaway escalation has been the introduction of HMOs to manage care. To reduce the rising costs of care, one has to begin to manage the care, since 85% of the operating expenses were assumed to be the cost of goods (care). The majority of HMOs, however, have not been successful at managing care. Instead, they have relinquished this responsibility by moving into a contractual mode that exchanged volume for wholesale discounts. Thus HMOs have achieved economies of scale by delivering their captive customers to the health-care system. Although this has reduced the rate of growth, the pressures to contain costs have continued and the idea of managing care has resurfaced. HMOs have been forced to use a bureaucratic system and a mechanistic mode of operation to manage the most emotional and sensitive behavior of a human system of health care.

毫不奇怪，机械化的医疗管理遭到了抵制。由官僚来指示医疗系统该做什么或不该做什么的想法，对于两个关键利益相关者（患者和提供者）来说是不可接受的。尽管一些 HMO 已经开发出更复杂的医疗管理模式，但它们仍保留了官僚主义的特点，并在机械框架内运作。结构性冲突，加上难以为本质上复杂的生命现象开发简单的机械解决方案，导致了问题的放弃。新兴的应对措施屈服于人头税（按人头付费）的概念，将决策和财务风险从供应链中推向提供者层面。

Not surprisingly, the mechanistic management of care has been received with resistance. The idea of a bureaucrat telling the health-care system what to do, or not to do, proved unacceptable for the two critical stakeholders: the patient and the provider. Although some HMOs have developed more elaborate models to manage care, they have retained their bureaucratic character and have operated within a mechanical framework. Structural conflict, compounded by intractability of developing a simple mechanistic solution to what is essentially a complex living phenomenon, has led to the abdication of the problem. The emerging response yielded itself to the concept of capitation (per-head payment), pushing the decision and the financial risk lower in the supply chain to the provider level.

与人头税同步发展，预防保健的概念已成为控制成本的有效方法。健康维护组织默认参与其中，并将医疗保健的概念扩大到包括健康。健康与人头税的结合有望成为解决护理非人性化问题的有效方法，因为它消除了官僚作为患者和提供者之间的干预者。

In a parallel development to capitation, the concept of preventive care has emerged as an effective way to control costs. HMOs got into the act by default and broadened the notion of health care to include wellness. The combination of wellness with capitation had promised to be an effective solution to the problem of depersonalization of care by removing the bureaucrat as an intervening agent between the patient and the provider.

只要服务仅限于预防和常规护理，且在总体健康人群中实施，且风险分布正常且易于评估和管理，这种方法就可能有效。然而，当急性病例的治疗与日常健康维护实践相结合时，风险管理的概念就具有了全新的意义。在传统的人头税模式下，患者群体在初级保健医生中分配，每位成员的报酬固定。人口越少，风险越高。这与保险的概念背道而驰，保险的概念是降低大群体中的风险。否则，保险的想法就毫无意义了。

This could have proved effective as long as the service was limited to preventive and normal care and was carried out in the context of a generally healthy population with a normal risk distribution that could easily be assessed and managed. However, when the treatment of acute cases is mixed in with the routine practice of health maintenance, the notion of risk management takes on a whole new significance. In the conventional capitation model, the patient population is distributed among the primary care physicians with a fixed payment per member. The smaller the population, the higher the risk. This is contrary to the notion of insurance, which is to reduce risk within a large population. Otherwise, the idea of insurance would be pointless.

为了解决分配给初级保健医生的小组的风险问题，一些 HMO 提供了特殊的病例审批流程。结果，在涉及生死攸关决定的病例中，该系统再次将责任转交给机械的官僚机构。因此，不仅医生和患者之间，而且医生和保险公司之间的冲突问题再次出现。

To overcome the problem of risk in subgroups assigned to primary care physicians, some HMOs have provided a special case approval process. As a consequence, in cases that involve life and death decisions, the system once again refers the responsibility back to its mechanistic bureaucracy. Thus the old problem of conflict is renewed not only between the physician and the patient but also between the physician and the insurance company.

进一步加剧这种情况的是，假设初级医生将支付专科护理服务的费用，这会使敏感的医患关系以及全科医生与专科医生的关系陷入怀疑和争议之中。仅仅感觉到利益冲突，即使毫无根据，也无助于建立在不可动摇的信任基础上的关系。主要利益相关者（初级保健医生、医疗专科医生和患者）之间的信任是任何医疗保健模式成功的最关键因素。任何结构性冲突的概念都会破坏整个系统。在系统成熟之前，应该先消除这种怀疑。这意味着需要制定足够的保障措施，以确保系统的正常运转不受损害。

To aggravate the situation further, the supposition that the primary physician will pay for the services of specialized care throws the sensitive patient–physician relationship, as well as the general practitioner–specialist relationship, into suspicion and controversy. The mere perception of a conflict of interest, even if unfounded, is not helpful in a relationship that should be based upon unshakable trust. Trust among major stakeholders (primary care physician, medical specialist, and patient) is the most crucial element for the success of any health-care model. Any notion of structural conflict will disrupt the whole system. Until the system comes of age, such suspicions should be preempted. This would imply the need to create enough safeguards to make sure that proper functioning of the system is not compromised.

对敏感机构（其中最重要的是医疗保健系统）的重大改革应考虑社会实验的风险。对社会环境的干预一旦开始，往往会自行发展。当原因消失时，其影响并不一定消失。在社会领域，因果在时间和空间上是分开的。行动的后果可能需要一段时间才能实现；因此，任何新设计都应保持开放、灵活，并注意其行动的不可逆转的后果。

The major overhaul of sensitive institutions, foremost among them the health-care system, should consider the risks of social experimentation. Interventions into social contexts, once brought into existence, tend to take on a life of their own. When a cause goes away, its effects do not necessarily go away. In social domains, cause and effect are separated in time and space. Consequences of an action may take some time to realize; therefore, any new design should be kept deliberately open, flexible, and mindful of irreversible consequences of its actions.

新的设计应该为均衡的方法创造机会。它应该避免在一个方向上的极端关注和随后的相反方向的逆转之间交替。按服务收费、人头税和其他有用概念的优点应该被纳入一个包罗万象的系统，该系统将允许选择和适应行为，而不会在此过程中出现无休止的破坏性波动。该系统应该通过纳入不同的替代方案来扩大其多样性来源，并通过不断的选择和学习不断发展。

The new design should create an opportunity for a well-balanced approach. It should avoid alternating between extreme concerns in one direction followed by subsequent reversals in the opposite direction. The virtues of fee for service, capitation, and other useful concepts should be incorporated into an encompassing system that will allow for choice and adaptive behavior without an endless series of disruptive fluctuations along the way. The system should expand its sources of variety by incorporating different alternatives and evolve through continuous selection and learning.

新系统应该：

The new system should:

该架构代表了一个平台，巴特沃斯独特的价值链将从这个平台发展而来。价值链确定了医疗保健系统的所有要素及其在市场维度（准入和护理系统）、输出维度（医疗服务模块）和输入维度（核心知识和共享服务）上的关系。

The architecture represents a platform from which Butterworth's distinctive value chain will evolve. The value chain identifies all of the elements of the health-care system and their relationships along a market dimension (access and care systems), an output dimension (health delivery modules), and an input dimension (core knowledge and shared services).

这种多维框架不仅可以帮助设计师理解和区分系统的每个组件，还可以建立组件之间的关系，从而形成一个完整而有凝聚力的整体。设计和整合缺失的元素（可以通过价值链分析来确定）将产生一个增值系统，其中整体产生的价值将大于各部分产生的价值之和。

This multidimensional framework not only helps the designers understand and differentiate each component of the system, but also establishes the components' relationships in such a way that an integrated and cohesive whole can emerge. Design and incorporation of the missing elements, which can be identified by an analysis of the value chain, will lead to a value-adding system in which the value generated by the whole will be greater than the sum of the values produced by the parts.

市场层面涉及医疗保健系统的用户。市场由三个基本要素定义：需求、获取和购买力。

The market dimension deals with the users of the health-care system. A market is defined in terms of three essential elements: need, access, and purchasing power.

医疗保健需求的分类和适当分组决定了所提供的产品和服务的性质。这些将在下一节关于护理系统的部分中详细讨论。然而，将用户划分为不同的群体反映了他们的购买力，并决定了接触他们所需的市场准入机制。

The classification and proper grouping of health-care needs define the nature of products and services rendered. These will be discussed in detail under the following section on the care system. However, the classification of users into various groupings reflects their purchasing power and defines the market access mechanism necessary to reach them.

作为巴特沃斯架构的基本维度之一，护理系统将负责定义和监控系统的虚拟输出。通过这样做，它将弥合市场与医疗保健产品和服务的实际交付之间的差距。

As one of the basic dimensions of the Butterworth architecture, the care system will be responsible for defining and monitoring the virtual output of the system. By doing so, it will bridge the gap between the market and the actual delivery of health-care products and services.

这种形式的护理系统设计体现了一套概念模型、方法和产品，它们代表了一套独特的医疗服务管理系统的运作。这些模型和方法包括护理管理、风险管理、质量管理（利用）和转诊协议。然而，实际护理的提供发生在医疗服务模块中。

The design of the care system in this format embodies a set of conceptual models, methodologies, and products that represent the operationalization of a distinct system of health delivery management. Such models and methodologies include care management, risk management, quality management (utilization), and referral protocols. The provision of actual care, however, happens at the health delivery modules.