目录
Table of Contents
前言
Front matter
第三版
THIRD EDITION
版权
Copyright
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本书及其所包含的个人贡献均受出版商的版权保护(除非本文另有说明)。
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
这一领域的知识和最佳实践在不断变化。随着新的研究和经验拓宽我们的理解,研究方法或专业实践的改变可能变得必要。
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods or professional practices, may become necessary.
执业人员和研究人员在评估和使用本文所述的任何信息或方法时,必须始终依靠自己的经验和知识。在使用此类信息或方法时,他们应注意自身安全和他人的安全,包括他们负有专业责任的人员的安全。
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information or methods described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
在法律允许的最大范围内,无论是出版商、作者、投稿人或编辑,对于因产品责任、疏忽或其他原因造成的任何人身伤害和/或财产损失,或因使用或操作本文材料中包含的任何方法、产品、说明或想法而造成的任何人身伤害和/或财产损失,均不承担任何责任。
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
加拉杰达吉,贾姆希德。
Gharajedaghi, Jamshid.
系统思维:管理混乱和复杂性:设计业务架构的平台/ Jamshid Gharajedaghi。——第 3 版。
Systems thinking : managing chaos and complexity : a platform for designing business architecture / Jamshid Gharajedaghi. — 3rd ed.
页厘米
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-12-385915-0
ISBN 978-0-12-385915-0
1. 系统分析。2. 系统中的混沌行为。3. 工业管理。4. 技术复杂性。I. 标题。
1. System analysis. 2. Chaotic behavior in systems. 3. Industrial management. 4. Technological complexity. I. Title.
T57.6.G52 2011
T57.6.G52 2011
003'.857–dc22
003'.857–dc22
2011008828
2011008828
大英图书馆提供该书的目录记录。
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
国际标准书号:978-0-12-385915-0
ISBN: 978-0-12-385915-0
美国印刷
Printed in the United States of America
第三版前言
Foreword to the Third Edition
系统科学领域的泰斗、我 40 年来的挚友,已经离我们而去。2009 年 10 月 29 日,罗素·阿科夫因髋关节手术并发症意外离我们而去。就在一周前,我们曾就同一组老旧互动问题的重现进行了一场精彩的讨论。我们还讨论了频繁出现的市场泡沫、错误的商业模式、全球化的挑战、不惜一切代价盲目追求效率、顽固的失业、不断飙升的赤字、公共教育状况以及日益两极分化的社会等问题日益令人担忧,这些问题在许多人心中产生了一种迟来的怀疑,即现有的传统工具和主流增长模式可能不再能够应对我们这个时代出现的复杂问题。我们分享了这些担忧,并讨论了如何让更多的从业者更容易掌握系统思维。
The grand old man of systems sciences, my dear friend of the last 40 years, is no longer with us. Russell Ackoff left us, unexpectedly, on October 29, 2009, due to complications from hip surgery. Just a week prior, we had a beautiful discussion about the resurgence of the same set of old interactive problems. We also discussed how the growing concerns with frequent market bubbles, faulty business models, challenges of globalization, blind pursuit of efficiency at any cost, stubborn unemployment, surging deficit, the state of public education, and an increasingly polarized society have created an overdue doubt in the minds of many that the existing conventional tools and the dominant growth paradigm may no longer be capable of dealing with the emerging complexities of our time. Sharing these concerns, we talked about how to make systems thinking more accessible to a larger group of practitioners.
在此背景下,考虑到目前人们对设计思维的兴趣高涨,我觉得是时候更新和扩展本书的方法论(第三部分)部分了,用整整一章来介绍系统思维的四个基础。这次讨论也勾起了我们 1974 年历史性会议的回忆,当时 Russ 第一次告诉我:“设计是系统方法论的未来,是选择实现的载体。”我告诉他这句话对我的职业生涯产生了怎样的影响,我多么希望他能为可能的第三版写一篇前言,解释为什么他仍然相信设计思维是应对相互依赖和复杂性挑战的答案。
In this context and considering the current surge of interest in design thinking, I felt it was time to update and expand the methodology (Part Three) portion of this book by dedicating one full chapter to each one of the four foundations of systems thinking. This discussion also brought out memories of our historic meeting in 1974 when, for the first time, Russ had told me: “design is the future of systems methodology and is the vehicle through which choice is manifested.” I told him how this statement had affected my professional life and how much I would appreciate a forward from him to the potential third edition explaining why he still believed that design thinking is the answer to the challenges of interdependency and complexity.
在他不幸的髋关节手术之后,我已经完全忘记了这次谈话,这时阿科夫夫人好心地给了我一张她在拉斯的工作档案里找到的便条。便条上写着我的名字,上面写着我们见面的经过,并提醒我要为我的书写一篇文章,概述他走向“交互式设计”的思维过程。我悲伤地意识到,我们失去了一个绝佳的机会来了解长期以来影响了这么多人的丰富多彩的思维过程。
In the aftermath of his unfortunate hip operation, I had forgotten all about this conversation when Mrs. Ackoff kindly gave me a note she had found in Russ' working file. The note, with my name on it, was about our meeting and a reminder to write a piece for my book outlining the thinking process that had led him to “interactive design.” I sadly realized that we had lost a golden opportunity to learn about a colorful thought process that for so long had affected so many people.
对于一位试图提出新想法的作者来说,没有什么比让别人接受这些想法并进一步发展它们更有价值的了。贾姆希德·加拉杰达吉对我的作品所做的就是如此。但他所做的远不止这些。他还对自己的作品做了重大的补充。他的作品所依据的传统与我的作品所依据的传统截然不同,但这两种传统在几年前相交并融合,使他的作品具有我羡慕的新鲜感和独创性。分享贾姆希德和我共同努力的一些历史可能会对读者有所帮助。
There is nothing that an author who has tried to produce new ideas values more than having another take those ideas and develop them even further. Jamshid Gharajedaghi has done just this to my work. But he has done a great deal more. He has made significant additions of his own. The tradition out of which his work has come and that from which mine has arisen are very different, but these two traditions intersected a number of years ago and have merged to give his work a freshness and originality that I envy. It may be helpful to the reader to share some of the history from which Jamshid's and my joint efforts have emerged.
1941 年,我开始在宾夕法尼亚大学攻读科学哲学研究生,在那里我受到了系里“老前辈”、著名哲学家 EA 辛格 (E.A. Singer, Jr.) 的影响。由于他创建的系里气氛非正式,我开始与两位年轻的教员合作,他们都是辛格以前的学生,分别是托马斯 A. 考恩 (Thomas A. Cown) 和 C. 韦斯特丘奇曼 (C. West Churchman)。
I began graduate work in the philosophy of sciences at the University of Pennsylvania in 1941 where I came under the influence of the “grand old man” of the department, the eminent philosopher E.A. Singer, Jr. Because of the informality of the department he created I began to collaborate with two younger members of the faculty, both of whom were former students of Singer, Thomas A. Cown and C. West Churchman.
辛格哲学的三个方面对我影响特别大。首先,哲学实践及其应用对于哲学本身的发展必不可少。其次,有效解决“实际”问题需要跨学科方法。第三,社会领域比其他任何科学领域都需要更多的工作,而且这是最困难的。
Three aspects of Singer's philosophy had a particularly strong influence on me. First, that the practice of philosophy, its application, was necessary for the development of philosophy itself. Second, that effective work on “real” problems required an interdisciplinary approach. Third, that the social area needed more work than any of the other domains of science and that this was the most difficult.
我们提出了一个研究小组的概念,该小组将使我们能够通过处理实际问题在社会领域实践哲学。我们设计的组织被称为“实验方法研究所”。在其他一些哲学研究生和几位教员的参与下,我们在完全非正式的基础上创办了这个研究所。
We developed a concept of a research group that would enable us to practice philosophy in the social domain by dealing with real problems. The organization we designed was called “The Institute of Experimental Method.” With the participation of a number of other graduate students in philosophy and a few other members of the faculty we started this institute on a completely informal basis.
1946 年 6 月,我接受了底特律韦恩大学(当时)哲学系的任命。我之所以这么做,是因为学院院长对建立应用哲学研究所的想法表现出了极大的热情,并愿意支持创建该研究所的努力。次年,丘奇曼也接受了全职哲学职位。与此同时,考恩从内布拉斯加州移民到韦恩法学院,他于 1946 年离开宾夕法尼亚大学后就读于内布拉斯加州。韦恩哲学系的另外两名成员认为,我们建立应用哲学研究所的努力是对这一古老追求的亵渎。围绕这一问题爆发了一场“争斗”,韦恩的大部分教职员工、管理人员和学生都参与其中。我在该系的职位变得难以维持。
In June of 1946 I accepted an appointment to the Philosophy Department of (then) Wayne University in Detroit. I did so because the dean of the college had shown enthusiasm for the idea of establishing an Institute of Applied Philosophy and offered to support an effort to create it. In the following year Churchman also accepted a full-time appointment in philosophy. Meanwhile, Cowan had immigrated to the Law School of Wayne from Nebraska to which he had gone when he left Penn in 1946. The other two members of the philosophy department of Wayne viewed our efforts to establish an Institute of Applied Philosophy as prostitution of this ancient pursuit. A “fight” broke out over this issue, one that involved a large part of the faculty, administration, and student body at Wayne. My position in that department became untenable.
1951 年春,丘奇曼和我接受了当时位于克利夫兰的凯斯理工学院的任命,因为凯斯致力于开展运筹学活动,丘奇曼和我都相信,以这个名义开展工作可能比在学术哲学的幌子下工作更好。到 1952 年底,我们正式批准了第一个运筹学博士课程,但遭到了教职员工的反对。从那时起,该小组和课程迅速发展壮大。凯斯成为世界各地运筹学研究人员朝圣的圣地。1958 年,丘奇曼出于个人原因移居加州大学伯克利分校,在那里他开展了类似的活动。学术运筹学活动开始激增和繁荣,其中许多活动都以凯斯的活动为蓝本。
In the spring of 1951 Churchman and I accepted appointments to (then) Case Institute of Technology in Cleveland because Case was committed to establishing an activity in Operations Research and Churchman and I had come to believe we could probably work better under this name than under the cloak of academic philosophy. By the end of 1952 we had formal approval, but not without faculty opposition, for the first doctoral program in Operations Research. From then on the Group and the program grew rapidly and flourished. Case became a mecca to which pilgrimages of operations researchers from around the world came. In 1958, Churchman, for personal reasons, migrated to the University of California at Berkeley where he established a similar activity. Academic Operations Research activities began to proliferate and flourish, many of them modeled on those at Case.
1964 年 6 月,研究小组和学术项目迁至宾夕法尼亚大学,大部分教职员工、学生和研究项目也随之迁至宾夕法尼亚大学。在宾夕法尼亚大学和沃顿商学院提供的大力支持下,我们的活动蓬勃发展。我们能够让各种各样的教职员工参与我们的活动,这大大提高了我们的能力。到 20 世纪 60 年代中期,我对专业运筹学的方向(或者说缺乏方向)感到不安。我主要有四点不满。
In June of 1964 the research group and academic program moved to Penn bringing with it most of the faculty, students, and research projects. Our activities flourished in the very supportive environment that Penn and Wharton provided. The wide variety of faculty members that we were able to involve in our activities significantly enhanced our capabilities. By the mid-1960s I had become uncomfortable with the direction, or rather, the lack of direction, of professional Operations Research. I had four major complaints.
首先,运筹学沉迷于数学工具,忽视了管理问题。结果,它只寻找可以应用其工具的问题,而不是寻找适合解决不断变化的管理问题的工具。其次,它没有考虑到问题是通过分析从现实中提取出来的抽象概念。现实是由问题系统、高度交互的问题和混乱组成的。我认为我们必须开发出处理这些问题系统的方法。第三,运筹学已经成为一门学科,却失去了对跨学科性的追求。大部分工作都是由受过该学科及其数学技术培训的专业人员进行的。与其他科学专业和人文学科的互动很少。最后,运筹学忽视了系统思维的发展——系统思维者正在开发的方法、概念和理论。
First, it had become addicted to its mathematical tools and had lost sight of the problems of management. As a result it was looking for problems to which to apply its tools rather than looking for tools that were suitable for solving the changing problems of management. Second, it failed to take into account the fact that problems are abstractions extracted from reality by analysis. Reality consists of systems of problems, problems that are strongly interactive, messes. I believed that we had to develop ways of dealing with these systems of problems as wholes. Third, Operations Research had become a discipline and had lost its commitment to interdisciplinarity. Most of it was being carried out by professionals who had been trained in the subject, its mathematical techniques. There was little interaction with the other sciences professions and humanities. Finally, Operations Research was ignoring the developments in systems thinking — the methodology, concepts, and theories being developed by systems thinkers.
出于这些原因,我们运筹学系的五位教员设计了一个新项目,我们希望将其作为进入该项目的学生的一个选择。除了我之外,还有 Eric Trist、Hasan Ozbekhan、Thomas Saaty 和 James Emshoff。我们在沃顿商学院启动了一个名为社会系统科学的新实验项目和管理实体。它后来被称为“S 立方”。该项目及其研究机构 Busch 中心现在是学校最大的博士项目。
For these reasons, five of us on the OR faculty designed a new program which we wanted to provide as an option to students entering the program. In addition to myself, there was Eric Trist, Hasan Ozbekhan, Thomas Saaty, and James Emshoff. We were able to initiate a new experimental program and administrative entity in The Wharton School called the Social Systems Sciences. It came to be known as “S Cubed.” This program along with its research arm, the Busch Center, now hosts the largest doctoral program in the school.
研究生和研究课程旨在培养能够规划、研究和设计社会系统的专业人员,这些系统以人为主要角色。它致力于社会系统理论和专业实践的开发和使用,以及这些理论的实践。它还致力于开发方法论和概念系统,使我们能够更有效地设计和管理社会系统。
The graduate and research programs are directed at producing professionals who were capable of planning for, doing research on, and designing social systems, systems in which people play the major role. It is dedicated to the development and use of theories of social systems and professional practice, and the practice of such theories. It is also committed to the development of methodology and conceptual systems, which enable us to design and manage social systems more effectively.
他的加入是我一生中的重要事件。一个研究严肃而复杂主题的研究者需要汇聚来自截然不同文化背景的广泛思想、经验和辛勤工作。本书记录了系统思想体系与本书作者的合作,前者最初源自 Edgar A. Singer、T. Cowan、C. West Churchman 和我本人的作品,我主要在西方世界的文化环境中工作,而本书作者则在古代东方文化中工作多年,情况似乎截然不同。奇迹发生了。最初被认为是系统组织性质的完全不同的外来观点,却很容易自然地变成了共同努力。系统组织的基本性质立刻被认为是多样性中的统一。当 Gharajedaghi 教授加入沃顿商学院社会系统科学系并担任其研究方向 Busch 中心的负责人时,他开始了一项双管齐下的活动,即研究系统组织的性质和应用研究与应用。在他的一系列系统论著作中,很早就发现这两种思想流派不仅基本兼容,而且相互丰富,效果令人欣喜。本书就是这种不同文化和解的幸运融合的证据。
His joining us was a major event in my life. An investigator into a serious and complex subject welcomes a convergence of a broad stream of ideas, experience, and hard work of a distinctively different cultural origin. This book is a record of collaboration between the system of systems thought stemming originally from the works of Edgar A. Singer, T. Cowan, C. West Churchman, and myself working primarily in the cultural milieu of the western world and the author of this book working for many years in the apparently quite dissimilar situation of an ancient eastern culture. An apparent miracle happened. What was originally thought of as a fundamentally disparate source of alien views on the nature of systems organization turned easily and naturally into a joint effort. The fundamental nature of systems organization was at once perceived to be a unity in diversity. When Professor Gharajedaghi joined the Social Systems Science department of the Wharton School and assumed the direction of its research, the Busch Center, he began a two-pronged activity of research into the nature of systems organization and applied research and application. In a series of his writings on systems theory it became evident quite early that the two streams of thought were not only basically compatible but also had the happy effect of enriching each other. The evidence of this fortunate coalescence of a different cultural rapprochement is the present work.
贾姆希德不仅是一位无价的朋友和同事,他还是灵感的源泉。因此,我很高兴收到邀请阅读这本书,这让我能够邀请你们分享他给我的灵感。
Jamshid is not only an invaluable friend and colleague, he is also a constant source of inspiration. Therefore I was delighted by the invitation to open this book, which enables me to invite you to share in the inspiration he has provided me.
由于当时的强制退休规定,阿科夫于 1986 年 65 岁时从宾夕法尼亚大学退休。布什中心的许多人与他一起创建了互动管理研究所 (INTERACT)。在接下来的 20 年里,INTERACT 成为阿科夫的职业家园,直到 2006 年他退休。
Ackoff retired from the University of Pennsylvania in 1986 at the age of 65, due to a mandatory retirement rule at the time. Many at the Busch Center joined him to create INTERACT, The Institute for Interactive Management. For the next 20 years INTERACT became Ackoff's professional home until his retirement in 2006.
阿科夫不仅是一位伟大的导师,还是一位好朋友和杰出的人。我非常想念他。
In addition to being a great mentor, Ackoff was a wonderful friend and an exceptional human being. I miss him enormously.
第二版前言
Foreword to the Second Edition
麻省理工学院的托马斯·李教授是我的好朋友。我于 20 世纪 80 年代初认识他,当时他是国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA) 的秘书长。汤姆痴迷于这样一种观点,即两种截然不同的系统思维传统——阿科夫的交互式设计和福雷斯特的系统动力学——是互补的。多年来,他坚持认为我们应该共同努力,将这两种著名的系统方法论合并为一个统一的系统方法论。但当时我专注于另外两个令人兴奋的概念。第一个是将文化视为一种操作系统,引导社会组织走向预先定义的秩序。第二个是直觉,迭代是理解复杂性的关键。
Professor Thomas Lee of MIT was a dear friend. I met him in the early 1980s when he was the Secretary General of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Tom was obsessed with the notion that two distinct traditions of systems thinking — Ackoff's interactive design and Forrester's systems dynamics — were complementary. For years he insisted that we should work together to merge the two prominent systems methodologies into a single unified one. But at the time I was preoccupied with two other exciting conceptions. The first one was consideration of culture as an operating system that guides social organizations toward a predefined order. The second was a hunch that iteration is the key for understanding complexity.
不幸的是,汤姆去世了,但他设法得到了我的承诺,让我从事他最喜欢的项目。为了履行我的诺言,我尝试了几种不同的方法,但都徒劳无功,后来我才意识到,我早就有解决方案了。在本书的第一版中,我曾使用它来将我的整体思维版本——结构、功能和过程的迭代——与交互设计结合起来。突然间,我清楚地认识到,交互设计不仅仅是一种简单的方法。它也是一个平台,可用于将迭代方法、系统动力学和社会文化系统自组织的挑战(负熵过程)整合成一个综合的系统方法。
Sadly, Tom passed away, but he managed to get a promise from me to work on his favorite project. To fulfill my promise I tried several different approaches, all in vain, before realizing that I had the solution all along. I had used it in the first edition of this book to combine my version of holistic thinking — iteration of structure, function, and process — with interactive design. Suddenly it became clear that interactive design is not just a simple methodology. It is also a platform that could be used to integrate the iterative approach, systems dynamics, and the challenge of self-organization of sociocultural systems (neg-entropic process) into a comprehensive systems methodology.
我准备了一份想法的草稿,并把它拿给我的导师 Russ Ackoff。他非常喜欢它,并坚持要我把它发表在一本新书中。
I prepared a draft of my thinking and showed it to my mentor Russ Ackoff. He liked it very much and insisted that I should publish it in a new book.
巧合的是,当时维拉诺瓦大学院长托马斯·马纳汉和高管教育副院长尼尔·西切尔曼请我帮他们设计一个独特的高级工商管理硕士课程,该课程将使用系统思维作为平台,将相关科目整合成一个统一的整体。我已准备好接受这项任务。我开发的系统方法论具有独特的优势,可以应对大多数工商管理硕士课程无法提供的挑战。维拉诺瓦高级工商管理硕士毕业生十个班的成功证明了这种方法的有效性。
Coincidentally, at that time, Dean Thomas Manahan of Villanova University and Niel Sicherman, Associate Dean of Executive Education, asked me to help them design a distinctive Executive MBA program that would use systems thinking as a platform to integrate the relevant subjects into a unified whole. I was ready for this assignment. The systems methodology I had developed was uniquely qualified to deal with the challenge that most MBA programs have not been able to deliver. Ten successful classes of Villanova Executive MBA graduates are testimony for the effectiveness of this approach.
但最终,我亲爱的合作伙伴 Susan Leddick 给予了我极大的支持,才完成了这项工作。Susan 不仅非常认真地编辑了修订后的章节,还提出了许多宝贵的建议,大大改善了结果。
But, in the end, it was the remarkable support of my valued partner Susan Leddick that got the job done. Susan not only edited the revised chapters with utmost attention but also had many invaluable suggestions that improved the outcome significantly.
这就是我新版的综合系统方法论。我真诚地相信,交互设计的美感以及结构、功能和流程迭代的魔力——当与操作思维的力量和对负熵过程的真正理解相结合时——将创造出一种有效而令人兴奋的系统方法论,在应对看似复杂而混乱的社会文化系统的新挑战方面大有裨益。
So, here it is, my new version of a comprehensive systems methodology. I sincerely believe that the beauty of interactive design and the magic of the iteration of structure, function, and process — when combined with the power of operational thinking, and genuine understanding of neg-entropic processes — create a competent and exciting systems methodology that goes a long way in dealing with emerging challenges of seemingly complex and chaotic sociocultural systems.
前言
Preface
这也违反了畅销书的黄金法则。我听说在一本书中处理太多想法的经历远远超出了大多数读者的舒适范围。
It also violates the golden rule of best sellers. I am told the experience of dealing with too many ideas in a single book is way out of the comfort zone of most readers.
然而,这本书中的想法虽然很多,但汇聚在一起形成了一个整体,比任何一个孤立的概念都更加美丽。因此,真正的美丽在于体验整体,看到它们融合成一个整体。
However, the ideas in this book, although many, converge and create a whole that is profoundly more beautiful than any one concept in isolation. The real beauty, therefore, lies in experiencing the whole, seeing them all come together fusing into one.
至于在打破信息和打破常规之间做出选择,很明显应该选择哪一个。如果这意味着成为少数派,那就这么做吧。
As for the choice between breaking the message or breaking the norm, it was obvious which one had to go. If that meant being a minority of one, so be it.
然而,这本书却面向每一个人,对于那些思考的乐趣依然鲜活而强烈、对于令人兴奋但又陌生的概念的热情还未耗尽的人来说。
This book, nevertheless, speaks to everyone for whom the joy of thinking is still alive and kicking and whose enthusiasm to entertain exciting but unfamiliar conceptions is not yet exhausted.
简而言之,这本书是关于系统的。相互依赖的必要性、减少无尽复杂性的必要性以及产生可管理的简单性的需求都需要一种可行的系统方法,一种整体的参考框架,使我们能够专注于相关问题,避免无休止地寻找更多细节而淹没在不断增加的无用信息中。
In a nutshell, the book is about systems. The imperatives of interdependency, the necessity of reducing endless complexities, and the need to produce manageable simplicities require a workable systems methodology, a holistic frame of reference that would allow us to focus on the relevant issues and avoid the endless search for more details while drowning in proliferating useless information.
与普遍持有的观点相反,流行的多学科方法概念并非系统方法。将独立发现综合成一个连贯整体的能力似乎比从不同角度生成信息的能力更为重要。
Contrary to a widely held belief, the popular notion of a multidisciplinary approach is not a systems approach. The ability to synthesize separate findings into a coherent whole seems far more critical than the ability to generate information from different perspectives.
迭代设计明确地认识到选择是人类发展的核心。发展是选择的能力;设计是增强选择和整体思维的载体。在这本书中,设计师寻求的是选择而不是预测未来。他们试图理解选择的理性、情感和文化层面,并设计出满足多种功能的设计。他们学习如何使用他们已知的知识,学习如何认识到他们不知道的知识,学习如何学习他们需要知道的知识。
The iterative design explicitly recognizes that choice is at the heart of human development. Development is the capacity to choose; design is a vehicle for enhancement of choice and holistic thinking. Designers, in this book, seek to choose rather than predict the future. They try to understand rational, emotional, and cultural dimensions of choice and to produce a design that satisfies a multitude of functions. They learn how to use what they already know, learn how to realize what they do not know, and learn how to learn what they need to know.
本书分为四个部分。第一部分确定了系统思维在总体框架中的位置。它概述了管理学和系统思维的主要理论传统以及它们之间的关系。
This book is divided into four parts. Part One identifies where systems thinking fits into the overall scheme of things. It provides an overview, a total picture of major theoretical traditions in management and systems thinking and their relationship.
致谢
Acknowledgment
一生的教学和咨询工作让我受益匪浅。我从学生和客户身上学到的东西远比我教给他们的要多。回首往事,我几乎记不起曾经温暖我的火,曾经指引我找到方向的明灯。然而,有些面孔却让我印象深刻。
A lifetime of teaching and consulting involves indebtedness to innumerable sources of wisdom. I have learned from my students and clients far more than I ever taught them. Looking back, I can hardly even begin to recall the fires by which I was warmed, the lights by which I found my way. And yet there are faces that vividly stand out.
拉塞尔·L·阿科夫一直是我的导师、商业伙伴和好朋友。他一如既往地用他无穷的智慧和毫不妥协的批评来审视手稿的每一行并剖析每一个概念。我欢迎他慎重的观点并采纳他的所有建议。
Russel L. Ackoff has been my mentor, business partner, and a great friend. He was there, as always, with his infinite wisdom and uncompromising critique to examine every line and dissect every concept of this manuscript. I welcomed his measured views and took all of his recommendations.
Reza Niazmand 是第一个对我的奇怪思维方式感兴趣并信任我将工业管理学院(他用整个职业生涯创建的实体)转变为基于系统思维的咨询研究和培训公司的人。在我担任工业管理学院院长的激动人心的几年里,这位巨人的坚定支持为本书提出的许多想法的初步发展和大胆实践奠定了基础。
Reza Niazmand was the first who found my strange way of thinking interesting enough to trust me to convert The Industrial Management Institute, the entity he had spent all of his professional life to create, into a consulting research and training firm based on systems thinking. Unyielding support of this giant man during my exciting years of tenure as the head of the Industrial Management Institute set the stage for initial development and gutsy practice of many of the ideas presented in this work.
Bijan Khorram 是我四十多年的朋友和同事,他给我的思想影响无穷。他充当着我的倾听者,检查思想的合理性和配置的效力。他直接参与了第四部分:系统实践中提出的案例的重新设计和撰写。从风格上讲,他的影响渗透到了整个练习中。
Bijan Khorram, as a friend and colleague of over four decades, the infusion of his thinking on me knows no bounds. He acted as the sounding board to examine the soundness of ideas and the potency of their configurations. He directly collaborated in the redesigns and write-ups of the cases presented in Part Four: Systems Practice. Stylistically, his influence permeated the entire exercise.
Johnny Pourdehnad 的探索热情令人欣慰。有他在身边,获取宝贵的资源是一件乐事,而不是阻碍。
Johnny Pourdehnad's insatiable love to search was a blessing. With him around access to valuable resources was fun rather than obstruction.
Jason Magidson 负责绘图。Pat Egner 负责编辑;英语版得益于她的努力。
Jason Magidson helped with graphics. Pat Egner did the editing; the Anglicized version is indebted to her efforts.
然后是那些特殊的客户,他们的支持、勇气和智力挑战确实非常宝贵,他们把概念性想法变成了具体的成果。Reza Ghotbi、Akbar Etemad、Nader Hakimi、Charlie Ligon、Karl J. Krapek、Len Devanna 和 Artley Skenandore、Gerry Wilson、Tommy Lee、Pat Stocker 和 Kathy Dannemiller 的坚定信任最终产生了影响。
Then there were the special clients whose patronage, courage, and intellectual challenge in bringing the conceptual ideas to concrete fruition proved invaluable indeed. Reza Ghotbi, Akbar Etemad, Nader Hakimi, Charlie Ligon, Karl J. Krapek, Len Devanna and Artley Skenandore, Gerry Wilson, Tommy Lee, Pat Stocker, and Kathy Dannemiller with their unfailing trust turned out to be the difference that made the difference.
最后但并非最不重要的是 Butterworth Heinemann 的出版总监 Karen Speerstra,她以非凡的果断启动了这个项目。事实证明 March Jacques 是一位出色的媒人。
Last but not least is Karen Speerstra, Publishing Director of Butterworth Heinemann, who, with remarkable decisiveness, got the project rolling. March Jacques proved to be a fantastic matchmaker.
所以我对他们的感激之情将是我永远无法偿还的债。
So my gratitude to them will remain a debt I can never repay.
第 1 章 游戏如何演变
Chapter 1. How the Game Is Evolving
竞争优势推动着企业的成功,但这种优势却因模仿、次优化和公司对技术突破的惰性而逐渐减弱。当现有的挑战得到满足时,就会出现新的竞争局面。这些变化的累积效应促使范式发生变化。在过去的 50 年里,我们的世界观在两个关键维度上经历了深刻的转变。不仅我们对组织性质的理解发生了根本性的转变,从无意识的机械系统转变为有目的的社会文化系统,而且我们的认知方式也发生了明显的转变,从分析性思维(处理独立变量集的科学转变为系统思维)转变为处理相互依赖变量的艺术和科学。然而,要有效地利用我们新发现的洞察力不断创造新的优势,不仅需要清楚地了解社会文化系统的行为,还需要明确认识到日益增加的相互依赖性所带来的后果。
Competitive advantage drives the success of businesses, but that advantage is eroded by the imitation, suboptimization, and the inertia of companies to respond to technological breakthroughs. A new competitive game emerges when existing challenges are met. Cumulative effects of these changes precipitate a change of paradigm. During the last 50 years, our worldview has gone though a profound transformation in two critical dimensions. Not only has there has been a fundamental shift in our understanding of the nature of organization from a mindless mechanical system to a purposeful sociocultural system, but there has also been a discriminating shift in our way of knowing from analytical thinking (the science of dealing with independent sets of variables to systems thinking) and the art and science of handling interdependent variables. However, effective use of our newly found insight for continuous creation of new advantages requires not only clear understanding of the behavior of sociocultural systems, but also unambiguous recognition of the consequences of increasing interdependency.
储蓄、贷款和房地产的崩溃,以及 20 世纪 80 年代末国防工业的衰落,本可能导致灾难性的 90 年代,但与直觉相反的是,这些现象导致了美国金融和智力资源的重组,这很可能是美国最长的经济扩张和繁荣时期之一的共同产物。具有讽刺意味的是,1998 年中期,对日本经济的担忧是美国投资者的一大担忧。互联网泡沫的破裂(1999 年底和 2000 年初)以及房地产泡沫、次贷和金融体系的崩溃导致了一个令人不安的问题:到底发生了什么?
The collapse of savings and loans and real estate, along with the fall of the defense industry in the late 1980s, could have led to a disastrous 1990s, but counterintuitively, these phenomena resulted in a restructuring of the financial and intellectual resources in America, which may very well have been a coproducer of one of the longest periods of economic expansion and prosperity in America. Ironically, in mid-1998, worries about Japan's economy were the nagging concerns of American investors. Collapse of the dotcom bonanza (late 1999 and early 2000) and the housing bubble and the subprime and financial systems fiasco led to the troubling question: What is going on?
游戏规则一直在变化,但这绝不是什么新鲜事。如今,一个众所周知甚至老生常谈的秘密是,许多伟大企业倒闭的原因是,它们的成功秘诀不知何故变得无效。这里似乎有一个魔鬼在作祟,这个魔鬼的名字就是成功。
The game keeps changing, but this is hardly news. By now it is a well-known and even a tired secret that what contributes to the fall of so many great enterprises is that somehow their recipe for success becomes ineffective. There seems to be a devil at work here, and the name of this devil is success.
在第一层级,模仿是最基本的力量。竞争优势从定义上来说是一种区别。成功的区别会随着时间的推移被模仿所侵蚀。到那时,例外就会变成常态,并失去优势。
Operating at the first level, imitation is the most basic force. Competitive advantage is by definition a distinction. Successful distinctions, in time, are eroded by imitation. At that point, exceptions become norms and lose their advantage.
尽管模仿一直存在,但如今它对美国企业的意义已发生了巨大变化。信息技术、通信和逆向工程的进步增加了产品技术被模仿的脆弱性。现在,给定产品的任何技术特色都可能成为潜在模仿者的猎物,他们几乎可以在短时间内学习、复制和重现它。这种简单的模仿对美国工业意义重大。虽然产品技术传统上一直是美国竞争的基石,但拥有工艺技术优势的国家获得了双重优势。
Although imitation has been present at all times, today its significance for American business has changed by an order of magnitude. Advances in information technology, communication, and reverse engineering have increased the product technology's vulnerability to imitation. Any technological distinction in a given product is now fair game for potential imitators who can learn, copy, and reproduce it in practically no time. Such easy imitation has been significant for American industry. While product technology has traditionally been the cornerstone of the American competitive game, countries with an advantage in process technology have gained a dual advantage.
首先,很难复制工艺技术中的区别,因为其关键要素是知识型员工。其次,工艺技术能力使知识从一个环境转移到另一个环境变得更加简单,从而简化了新知识的操作。结果是显著的:上市时间更快、盈亏平衡点更低、产品种类更多、对变化的反应更快。
First, it is difficult to copy a distinction in process technology because its critical elements are knowledge workers. Second, competency in a process technology makes it simpler to transfer knowledge from one context to another, easing the operationalization of new knowledge. The results are dramatic: much faster time-to-market performance, a lower break-even point, better product variety, and faster response to change.
20 世纪 70 年代末,美国一家知名设备公司意识到,与日本直接竞争对手相比,其成本劣势高达 40%。讽刺的是,这家公司是叉车行业的技术领导者。其成本结构为 40% 的原材料、15% 的直接人工和 45% 的间接费用。间接费用(转换成本)简单地计算为直接人工的 300%。
In the late 1970s, a well-known equipment company in America realized it had a 40% cost disadvantage in comparison with its direct Japanese competitor. The company, ironically, was the technological leader in the lift truck industry. Its cost structure was 40% raw material, 15% direct labor, and 45% overhead. Overhead (transformation cost) was simply calculated as 300% of direct labor.
公司决定将成本降低 20%。假设直接人工成本减少 5%,间接成本就会自动再减少 15%,从而将成本降低 20%。经过整整一年的努力,直接人工成本下降到 10%,而间接成本却没有任何减少。当我们被要求处理这种情况时,我们的第一反应是:既然有 40% 的成本劣势,为什么有人要将成本降低 20%?40% 的成本优势从何而来?很明显,即使工人放弃所有的工资,公司也活不下去。
The company decided to reduce the cost by 20%. It was assumed that a 5% reduction in direct labor would automatically reduce overhead by another 15%, resulting in a 20% cost reduction. After a whole year of struggle, direct labor was reduced to 10% without any reduction in the overhead. When we were asked to deal with the situation, this was our first reaction: Why does anyone want to reduce the cost by 20% when there is a 40% cost disadvantage? Where did the 40% cost advantage come from? It was obvious that even if the workers gave up all of their wages the company would not survive.
然后我们意识到竞争产品只使用了 1,800 个零件,而我们的产品使用了 2,800 个零件。零件数量的差异完美地解释了成本差异。令人惊讶的是,竞争对手利用了我们客户在过去 10 年中开发的技术,从而实现了零件数量的减少。问题在于,我们的客户将其新开发的每一项技术都修补到旧平台上,导致产品复杂且效率低下,而竞争对手则从头开始,充分利用了每项技术提供的潜力。
Then we realized that the competitive product only used 1,800 parts while our product employed 2,800. The difference in the number of the parts perfectly explained the difference in cost. The surprising element in all of this was that a lower number of parts was achieved by the competition by utilizing technologies that were developed by our client over the last 10 years. The problem was that our client had patched each one of its newly developed technologies into an old platform, which resulted in a complex and inefficient product, whereas the competition started from a clean slate and took full advantage of the potentials that each technology offered.
这个故事的寓意是,人们应该时不时地停下来反思一下自己,然后重新开始。
The moral of this story is that once in a while one should pause and reflect on oneself and begin anew.
惰性是所有延迟对技术突破做出反应的二级倾向和行为的根源。例如,大陆罐头公司的惰性为两片罐技术取代三片罐技术提供了机会,并摧毁了曾经强大的大陆罐头公司。全美 500 家工厂和 45% 的三片罐市场份额无法阻止对两片罐技术的延迟反应在不到三年的时间内摧毁大陆罐头公司。
Inertia is responsible for all of the second level tendencies and behaviors that delay reactions to technological breakthroughs. For example, sheer inertia by the Continental Can Company provided the opportunity for two-piece can technology to replace the three-piece can technology and destroy the once mighty Continental Can. Five hundred factories all over the United States and 45% share of the three-piece can market could not prevent a delayed reaction to two-piece technology from destroying Continental Can in fewer than three years.
讽刺的是,一家公司未能对重大技术突破作出反应的可能性与它在之前占主导地位的技术上取得的成功程度成正比。换句话说,一家公司在某项技术上取得的成功越多,它对变革前景的抵制就越强烈。最初的反应总是拒绝。面对不可否认的事件,我们确实具有惊人的拒绝能力,但真正的危险出现在公司最终决定修补时。修补浪费了宝贵的时间。它为竞争对手提供了传播新技术和主导市场的机会。此外,修补增加了运营成本,降低了产出质量,造成了双重危险。
Ironically, the likelihood that an organization will fail to respond to a critical technological break is directly proportional to the level of success it had achieved in a previously dominant technology. In other words, the more success an organization has with a particular technology, the higher its resistance to the prospect of change. The initial reaction is always denial. We do have an amazing capacity for denial in the face of undeniable events, but the real danger arises when the organization finally decides to patch things up. Patching wastes critical time. It provides the competition with a window of opportunity to disseminate the new technology and dominate the market. Patching, moreover, increases the cost of the operation and reduces the quality of the output, producing a double jeopardy.
夸大其词——认为“X”好,那么“X”就更好——是第三级流程的核心,它有效地摧毁了已证实的竞争优势。将自己的优势发挥到极致的倾向会将优势转化为破坏性的弱点。不幸的是,许多故事都遵循同样的思路:成功的秘诀受到推崇,塑造它的英雄或女英雄成为唯一的权威。只有一个正确答案占上风。日益单一的文化产生了越来越少的替代方案和一条狭窄的胜利之路。这有限的一套重新定义了企业文化、假设、前提和常识,这些限制或框定了公司对自身及其行业的理解,并推动了其竞争战略。
Exaggeration — the fallacy that if “X” is good more “X” is even better — is at the core of the third level processes that effectively destroy a proven competitive advantage. A tendency to push one's strength to its limits transforms the strength into a destructive weakness. Unfortunately, many stories follow the same line: a winning formula gains adulation, and the heroes or heroines who shaped it become the sole authorities. One right answer prevails. An increasingly monolithic culture produces an ever-decreasing set of alternatives and a narrow path to victory. This limited set redefines the corporate culture, the assumptions, the premises, and the common wisdom that bounds or frames a company's understanding of itself and its industry and drive its competitive strategy.
改变游戏规则或改变问题,是将成功转化为失败的反直觉过程的核心。换句话说,成功地玩游戏会改变游戏本身。未能认识到一个人成功的后果和坚持玩好老游戏是造成悲剧的原因。一旦取得成功,或问题得到有效解决,与该问题相关的问题就会受到不可逆转的影响。解决问题会改变它并产生一系列全新的问题。这就是为什么竞争的基础会发生变化,一旦遇到竞争挑战,就会出现新的竞争游戏。
Change of the game, or transformation of the problem, is at the heart of a counterintuitive process that converts success into failure. In other words, the act of playing a game successfully changes the game itself. Failure to appreciate the consequences of one's success and tenacity in playing the good old game are what create tragedies. Once success is achieved, or a problem is effectively dissolved, the concerns associated with that problem are irreversibly affected. Dissolving a problem transforms it and generates a whole new set of concerns. That is why the basis for competition changes and a new competitive game emerges as soon as a competitive challenge is met.
在第三和第四层次的过程中,成功的作用截然不同。当成功被夸大时(第三层次),它就会与解决方案的性质背道而驰,并削弱其有效性。相比之下,成功应对挑战(第四层次)会改变问题的性质。换句话说,它改变了游戏规则。亨利·福特成功制造出批量生产机器,有效地解决了生产问题。对生产的熟悉关注被对市场的陌生关注所取代。曾经独一无二的批量生产能力因广泛的模仿而失去了优势。这一事件将竞争游戏从对生产的关注转变为对市场的关注,这需要管理多样性和增长的能力。
The role of success is quite different in the third and fourth level processes. When it is exaggerated (third level), success works against the nature of the solution and diminishes its effectiveness. By contrast, success in handling a challenge (fourth level) transforms the nature of the problem. In other words, it changes the game. Henry Ford's success in creating a mass production machine effectively dissolved the production problem. A familiar concern for production was replaced with an unfamiliar concern for markets. The once unique ability to mass-produce lost its advantage through widespread imitation. This event changed the competitive game from concern for production to concern for markets, which required an ability to manage diversity and growth.
亨利·福特拒绝承认自己成功的意义,也不愿意玩新游戏(“只要是黑色,什么颜色都可以”),这让通用汽车公司的阿尔弗雷德·斯隆有机会主宰汽车行业。斯隆基于产品的分部结构概念被证明是一种管理增长和多样性的有效设计。美国企业巧妙地学习和玩弄了新游戏,成为世界其他国家效仿的基准(沃马克,1990 年)。
Henry Ford's refusal to appreciate the implication of his own success and his unwillingness to play the new game (“they can have any color as long as it is black”) gave Alfred Sloan of GM the opportunity to dominate the automotive industry. Sloan's concept of product-based divisional structure turned out to be an effective design for managing growth and diversity. The new game, artfully learned and played by corporate America, became the benchmark for the rest of the world to copy (Womack, 1990).
但美国企业界过于陶醉于自身的成功,甚至没有注意到新游戏的出现。这种疏忽为日本提供了一个发起缓慢但有效挑战的机会。新游戏的阴险演化方式凸显了系统动力学的另一个重要原理,青蛙的故事就是一个例证,它快乐地坐在逐渐变热的水中,最后被煮死。
But corporate America was too overwhelmed and overjoyed by its own success to even notice the emergence of the new game. This inattentiveness provided Japan with an opportunity to launch a slow but effective challenge. The insidious manner in which the new game evolved underscores another important principle of systems dynamics, which is exemplified by the story of the frog that boiled to death by sitting happily in water that gradually grew hotter.
政治领域也存在着这种游戏规则转变的例子。海湾战争的成功虽然使布什总统的支持率达到了前所未有的水平,但却无意中让他输掉了大选。他的外交政策的胜利使得国家将关注点从国家安全转移到国内经济。未能理解这一转变的含义,将成功变成了失败。
Examples of the change of the game can also be found in politics. Although the success of the Persian Gulf War boosted the approval rating of President Bush to an unprecedented level, it inadvertently cost him the election. The triumph of his foreign policy caused the nation to shift its concern from national security to domestic economy. Failure to understand the implication of this change converted the success to failure.
认识到成功可以改变游戏规则,想想信息技术的巨大成功意味着什么。成功标志着信息时代的终结。竞争优势正日益从获取信息转向创造知识,最终转向获得理解。
Recognizing that success changes the game, think what the phenomenal success of information technology means. Success marks the beginning of the end of the Information Era. Competitive advantage is increasingly shifting away from having access to information to generating knowledge and, finally, toward gaining understanding.
模仿、惰性、次优化和游戏规则改变的累积效应最终体现为第五种力量——范式转变。
The cumulative effects of imitation, inertia, suboptimization, and change of the game ultimately manifest themselves in the fifth force — a shift of paradigm.
范式转变可以通过积极的学习和忘却过程有目的地发生。更常见的情况是,它是对一系列事件导致传统智慧失效而产生的挫败感的反应。面对一系列无法再忽视或否认的矛盾和/或越来越多的困境,而主流思维模式不再能提供令人信服的解释,大多数人都承认主流范式已不再有效,其潜在能力已耗尽。
A shift of paradigm can happen purposefully by an active process of learning and unlearning. It is more common that it is a reaction to frustration produced by a march of events that nullify conventional wisdom. Faced with a series of contradictions that can no longer be ignored or denied and/or an increasing number of dilemmas for which prevailing mental models can no longer provide convincing explanations, most people accept that the prevailing paradigm has ceased to be valid and that it has exhausted its potential capacity.
最终,需要少数人拥有非凡的勇气来质疑传统智慧并指出其中的第一个裂缝。由此开始了一场痛苦的斗争,其最终结果是将关键变量重新概念化为具有其自身新逻辑的新整体。
Eventually, it takes the exceptional courage of a few to question the conventional wisdom and point to the first crack in it. Thus begins a painful struggle whose end result is reconceptualization of critical variables into a new ensemble with a new logic of its own.
第一个转变使我们有能力将组织视为一个多元化的社会文化体系,一个由有目的的成员自愿组成的协会,这些成员聚集在一起,通过满足环境需求来服务自己。
The first shift results in the ability to see the organization as a multi-minded, sociocultural system, a voluntary association of purposeful members who have come together to serve themselves by serving a need in the environment.
第二个转变帮助我们看透混乱和复杂性,并学会如何处理一组相互依赖的变量。不了解这种双重变化的重要性会导致过度的结构冲突、焦虑、无能为力的感觉和对变革的抵制。不幸的是,尽管有各种相反的言论,但现行的组织结构旨在阻止变革。主流文化默认不断地重复同样的非解决方案。这就是为什么企业转型的经历如此令人沮丧。组织假设的隐性是组织集体记忆的核心,它具有压倒性的力量。这些假设被信仰所接受,变成了可能阻碍未来的不容置疑的做法。除非这些隐含的文化代码的内容和含义被明确化和拆除,否则,无论干预的意图多么好,野兽的本质都会比干预的暂时效果更持久。
The second shift helps us see through chaos and complexity and learn how to deal with an interdependent set of variables. Failure to appreciate the significance of this dual change results in excessive structural conflict, anxiety, a feeling of impotency, and resistance to change. Unfortunately, prevailing organizational structures, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, are designed to prevent change. Dominant cultures by default keep reproducing the same non-solutions all over again. This is why the experience with corporate transformation is so fraught with frustration. The implicitness of the organizing assumptions, residing at the core of the organization's collective memory, is overpowering. Accepted on faith, these assumptions are transformed into unquestioned practices that may obstruct the future. Unless the content and implications of these implicit, cultural codes are made explicit and dismantled, the nature of the beast will outlive the temporary effects of interventions, no matter how well intended.
思考任何事物都需要一个形象或概念。思考像组织这样复杂的事物需要类似、更简单和更熟悉的模型。这三个模型代表了我们对组织本质的理解的连续转变,从无意识的机械工具,到单一意识的生物体,最后到多意识的组织复杂体。
To think about any thing requires an image or a concept of it. To think about a thing as complex as an organization requires models of something similar, something simpler, and something more familiar. The three models represent the successive shift in our understanding of the nature of the organization, from a mindless mechanical tool, to a uni-minded biological being and, finally, to a multi-minded organized complexity.
这种简单的组织概念影响巨大,在一代人的时间里,它就创造了一种超越人类累积能力的商品和服务生产能力。机器组织模式的本质简单而优雅。组织是一个无意识的系统;它本身没有目的。它是一种由用户定义功能的工具,是所有者用来实现盈利目标的工具。这种工具的重要属性是可靠性,其性能标准就是效率。部件不应偏离的原则是其运作整洁、高效、可控和可预测魅力的核心。无意识机械系统的部件与整体一样,没有选择。它的结构是设计好的,没有能力进行自我重组。系统以被动的方式运行,只有在环境保持稳定或对其影响很小的情况下才能有效运行。
The impact of this simple notion of organizations was so great that in one generation it created a capacity for the production of goods and services that surpassed the cumulative capacity of mankind. The essence of the machine mode of organization is simple and elegant. An organization is a mindless system; it has no purpose of its own. It is a tool with a function defined by the user, an instrument for the owner to use to achieve his goal of making profit. The important attribute of this tool is its reliability, and its performance criterion is simply efficiency. The principle that parts should not deviate is at the core of the glamour of tidiness, efficiency, controllability, and predictability of its operation. The parts of a mindless mechanical system, just like the whole, have no choice. Its structure is designed into it, leaving it with no ability to restructure itself. The system functions reactively and can operate effectively only if its environment remains stable or has little effect on it.
生物思维或生命系统范式主要出现在德国和英国,但后来在美国流行起来,这种范式导致了组织是一个单一思想系统的概念。生物组织模式的基本假设和原则也很简单和优雅:组织被视为一个单一思想的生命系统,就像人类一样,有自己的目的。鉴于开放系统固有的脆弱性和不稳定结构,这个目的就是生存。根据传统观点,为了生存,生物必须成长。要做到这一点,它们应该利用环境来实现积极的新陈代谢。
The biological thinking or living systems paradigm, which led to the concept of the organization as a uni-minded system, emerged mainly in Germany and Britain, but then caught fire in the United States. The underlying assumptions and principles of the biological mode of organizations are also simple and elegant: an organization is considered a uni-minded living system, just like a human being, with a purpose of its own. This purpose, in view of the inherent vulnerability and unstable structure of open systems, is survival. To survive, according to conventional wisdom, biological beings have to grow. To do so they should exploit their environment to achieve a positive metabolism.
用组织语言来说,这意味着增长是衡量成功的标准,是最重要的绩效标准,而利润是实现增长的手段。因此,与机器模式(利润本身就是目的)相反,生物模式的利润只是达到目的的一种手段。利润与增长的联系被认为是一种社会利益,这赋予了利润急需的社会认可度和与美国生活方式相适应的地位。
In organizational language, this means that growth is the measure of success, the single most important performance criterion, and that profit is the means to achieve it. Therefore, in contrast to the machine mode, in which profit is an end in itself, profit, for the biological mode, is only a means to an end. The association of profit with growth, considered a social good, gives profit the much needed social acceptability and status compatible with the American way of life.
虽然单一思维系统有选择,但其部件却没有。它们基于控制论原理作为稳态系统运行,对信息的反应方式与恒温器相同。事实上,单一思维系统的美妙之处在于,部件没有选择,只能以预定义的方式对其环境中的事件做出反应。
Although uni-minded systems have a choice, their parts do not. They operate based on cybernetics principles as a homeostatic system, reacting to information in the same way as a thermostat. As a matter of fact, the beauty of a uni-minded system is that the parts do not have a choice and react only in a predefined manner to the events in their environment.
例如,我的心脏无法自行决定不为我工作。我的胃也不会起疑心,认为“肝脏想伤害我”。没有意识,没有选择,没有冲突。单一思维系统的运作完全由一个大脑即执行功能控制,它通过通信网络从各种传感部分接收信息,并发出激活系统相关部分的指令。人们认为,任何正常的单一思维系统的故障都是由于通信渠道缺乏信息或噪音造成的。因此,大多数问题的答案是更多的信息和更好的沟通。然而,如果系统的某些部分发展出意识并显示选择,系统就会陷入真正的麻烦。想象一下,你房间里的恒温器突然有了自己的想法——当它收到关于房间温度的信息时,它决定它不喜欢这个温度,想在上面睡觉。不可否认的结果是空调系统一片混乱。
For example, my heart cannot decide on its own that it does not want to work for me. My stomach will not get suspicious, thinking “the liver is out to get me.” No consciousness, no choice, no conflict. The operation of a uni-minded system is totally under the control of a single brain, the executive function, which, by means of a communication network, receives information from a variety of sensing parts and issues directions that activate relevant parts of the system. It is assumed that a malfunctioning of any normal uni-minded system is due to a lack of information or noise in the communication channel. Therefore, the perceived answer for most of the problems is more information and better communication. However, if parts of a system develop consciousness and display choice, the system will be in real trouble. Imagine for a moment that the thermostat in your room suddenly develops a mind of its own — when it receives information about the temperature in the room it decides it does not like it and wants to sleep on it. The undeniable result is a chaotic air conditioning system.
当部分表现出选择时,核心问题就变成了冲突和处理冲突的能力。然而,只要家长制是主流文化,“父亲最了解”或“把苹果给妹妹”的命令就成为处理冲突的有效方法。家长制最接近单一思想体系的基本特征,它创造了强大的组织。福特、杜邦、通用汽车和 IBM 等企业巨头都在很大程度上归功于他们家长制的创始人。
When parts display choice, the central issues become conflict and the ability to deal with it. However, as long as paternalism is the dominant culture, the imperatives of “father knows best” or “give the apple to your sister” become an effective way to handle conflict. Paternalism best approximates the essential characteristics of a uni-minded system, and it creates powerful organizations. Corporate giants such as Ford, DuPont, General Motors, and IBM owe much to their paternalistic founding fathers.
多心智系统的例子是社会组织。从社会文化角度看,组织是一群有目的的成员自愿组成的联合体,这些成员表现出对目的和手段的选择。这是一个全新的局面。一个系统的各个部分表现出选择的行为无法用机械或生物模型来解释。社会系统必须根据其自身条件来理解。
Multi-minded systems are exemplified by social organizations. A sociocultural view considers the organization a voluntary association of purposeful members who manifest a choice of both ends and means. This is a whole new ball game. Behavior of a system whose parts display a choice cannot be explained by mechanical or biological models. A social system has to be understood on its own terms.
与机器不同,在机器中,将各个部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体是一次性的任务,而对于社会组织而言,整合问题是一个持续的斗争和连续的过程。多层次目的性系统的有效整合要求,目的性部分的需求的满足取决于更大系统需求的满足,反之亦然。在这种情况下,组织的目的是服务于其成员的目的,同时也服务于其环境的目的。
In contrast to machines, in which integrating of the parts into a cohesive whole is a one-time proposition, for social organizations the problem of integration is a constant struggle and a continuous process. Effective integration of multilevel purposeful systems requires that the fulfillment of a purposeful part's desires depends on fulfillment of the larger system's requirements, and vice versa. In this context, the purpose of an organization is to serve the purposes of its members while also serving the purposes of its environment.
社会文化组织的成员通过一个或多个共同目标以及集体可接受的追求目标的方式团结在一起。成员分享植根于其文化的价值观。文化是将各部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体的粘合剂。然而,由于各部分对整体组织有很多影响,因此共识对于多思想系统的协调至关重要。
The members of a sociocultural organization are held together by one or more common objectives and collectively acceptable ways of pursuing them. The members share values that are embedded in their culture. The culture is the cement that integrates the parts into a cohesive whole. Nevertheless, since the parts have a lot to say about the organization of the whole, consensus is essential to the alignment of a multi-minded system.
处理独立变量是分析思维的本质,在物理、生物和社会这三个领域中,分析思维始终保持不变。为了分享古典科学的荣耀,生物科学和社会科学都选择使用分析方法,没有丝毫偏差。这或许有助于解释为什么人们故意忽略了一整套现象,即所谓的第二类(突现)属性。爱情、成功和幸福等属性无法通过分析处理解决。
Handling independent variables is the essence of analytical thinking, which has remained intact in all three contexts: physical, biological, and social. To share in the glory of classical science, both biological and social sciences opted to use the analytical method with no deviation. This might help explain why a whole set of phenomena, known as type II (emergent) property, has been conveniently ignored. Properties like love, success, and happiness do not yield to analytical treatment.
然而,我们越来越发现,我们的独立变量不再独立,过去对我们如此有效的简洁结构不再有效。以下经验说明了这一点。
However, increasingly we are finding out that our independent variables are no longer independent and that the neat and simple construct that served us so beautifully in the past is no longer effective. The following experience illustrates this point.
每个领域的初始(或基线)指标被指定为 0,世界级绩效被指定为 10。该公司制定了详细而全面的计划,以在三年内从 0 升至 10。最初,记录了显著的改进,但仅 18 个月后,运营就陷入停滞状态。
Initial (or baseline) measures in each area were designated as 0 and world-class performance as 10. The company established a detailed and comprehensive program to go from 0 to 10 in three years. Initially, significant improvement was recorded, but the operation reached a plateau after only 18 months.
使用传统方法处理这种情况就像在跑步机上跑步。人们需要跑得越来越快才能停留在原地。在福特的案例中,Woodhaven 运营的现有设计已达到其最高潜力,但不幸的是,远远低于世界一流的绩效。为了达到绩效目标,必须重新设计运营,而这正是福特所做的。新的设计不仅帮助运营达到了目标,而且在六个月内大幅超越了目标。
Using the conventional approach to deal with this type of situation would be like riding a treadmill. One needs to keep running faster and faster to stay in the same place. In Ford's case, the existing design of Woodhaven operations had reached its highest potential, unfortunately far below the world-class performance. To reach the performance goals, the operation would have to be redesigned, and this was done. A new design helped the operation not only to reach the target goal, but also to surpass it by a wide margin in six months.
理解相互依赖需要一种不同于分析的思维方式。它需要系统思维。分析思维和系统思维截然不同。
Understanding interdependency requires a way of thinking different from analysis. It requires systems thinking. And analytical thinking and systems thinking are quite distinct.
分析是一个三步思维过程。首先,它将要理解的东西拆开。然后,它试图解释各个部分的行为。最后,它试图将对各个部分的理解汇总为对整体的解释。系统思维采用不同的过程。它将系统置于其所属的更大环境的背景中,并研究它在更大整体中发挥的作用。
Analysis is a three-step thought process. First, it takes apart that which it seeks to understand. Then it attempts to explain the behavior of the parts taken separately. Finally, it tries to aggregate understanding of the parts into an explanation of the whole. Systems thinking uses a different process. It puts the system in the context of the larger environment of which it is a part and studies the role it plays in the larger whole.
分析方法在近四百年的时间里基本保持不变,但系统思维却经历了三代不同的变革:
Analytical approach has remained essentially intact for nearly four hundred years, but systems thinking has already gone through three distinct generations of change:
除了有目的性之外,社会组织还是生命系统;因此,与所有生命系统一样,它们具有负熵,能够自我组织。它们从混乱中创造秩序。生物系统主要通过遗传密码自我组织,而社会系统则通过文化密码自我组织。社会系统的 DNA 就是其文化。
In addition to being purposeful, social organizations are living systems; therefore, like all living systems, they are neg-entropic and capable of self-organization. They create order out of chaos. Biological systems primarily self-organize through genetic codes, and social systems self-organize through cultural codes. The DNA of social systems is their culture.
然而,社会系统既可以默认组织,也可以设计组织。默认情况下,系统所依据的信念、假设和期望都未经审查。在设计中,信念、假设和期望被明确表达,并不断受到审查和监控。因此,第三代系统思维不仅要应对相互依赖和选择的挑战,还要应对文化印记默认地再次重现混乱或现有秩序的影响。这就是为什么设计与参与、迭代和二阶学习一起成为新兴系统方法论概念的核心。
Social systems, however, can be organized either by default or by design. In default, the beliefs, assumptions, and expectations that underlie the system go unexamined. In design, the beliefs, assumptions, and expectations are made explicit, being constantly examined and monitored. The third generation of systems thinking therefore has to deal not only with the challenge of interdependency and choice, but also with the implications of cultural prints reproducing the mess, or the existing order, all over again by default. This is why design, along with participation, iteration, and second-order learning, is at the core of the emerging concept of systems methodology.
本书第三部分详细探讨了这一激动人心的概念,并提出了系统思维的操作定义。本章的其余部分探讨了六种不同的竞争游戏背景下双重范式转变的含义。
Details of this exciting concept are explored in Part Three of this book, which develops an operational definition of systems thinking. The remainder of this chapter explores implications of the dual paradigm shift in the context of six distinct competitive games.
每种模式都有自己独特的组织模式,每种组织模式都因其对特定人才的要求而产生了自己的小圈子和特权成员。这些成员往往将自己的特权转化为权力和影响力。成功的程度越高,维持现有秩序的风险就越大,对变革的阻力就越大。不幸的是,无法改变过时的组织模式对于公司的生存能力来说就像错过技术突破对于产品线的生存能力一样悲惨。
Each paradigm has its own unique mode of organization, and every mode of organization, by virtue of its requirement for specific talents, creates its own clique and privileged members. These members often translate their privileges into power and influence. The higher the level of success, the greater the stake in continuing an existing order and the higher the resistance to change. Unfortunately, the inability to change an outdated mode of organization is as tragic for the viability of a corporation as the consequence of missing a technological break is for the viability of a product line.
大规模生产直接源于机器组织模式。亨利·福特成功地设计出一种生产机器,使零件和劳动力可以互换,从而催生了大规模生产系统和全新的竞争局面。他每天可以生产 6,000 辆汽车,而他在法国最接近的竞争对手每年只能生产 700 辆汽车。生产能力提高了一个数量级以上。在一代人的时间里,我们生产的商品和服务超过了人类的累计能力。
Mass production resulted directly from the machine mode of organization. Henry Ford's success in designing a production machine by making both parts and labor interchangeable led to a mass-production system and a whole new competitive game. He could produce 6,000 cars a day, while his closest competitor in France could muster only 700 cars a year. The ability to produce increased by more than an order of magnitude. In one generation we produced goods and services that surpassed the cumulative capacity of mankind.
这种组织模式在生产商品和服务方面的有效性不仅带来了量变,也带来了质变。问题不再是如何生产,而是如何销售。营销时代由此开启。随之而来的是一系列全新挑战。其中最重要的挑战是如何应对日益增长的多样性需求,以及如何管理规模和复杂性的增长。
The effectiveness of this mode of organization in the production of goods and services created not just a quantitative change but also a qualitative change in the nature of the problem itself. The question was no longer how to produce, but how to sell. And so dawned the marketing era. What emerged was an environment with an entirely new set of challenges. Foremost among them was how to respond to increasing demand for variety and diversity, and how to manage growth in size and complexity.
这一挑战对于组织模式所能提供的最佳方案而言过于艰巨。鉴于人性本质上是变异的这一假设,对不变异的要求高度重视严密监督,以确保组织内个人行为的一致性、可预测性和可靠性。这种强调削弱了组织的创造力,限制了其对满足日益增长的多样性需求的反应。对消费者不满的防御性反应要求更加遵守规则和更加严格,从而导致恶性循环。
This challenge was too great for even the best that a machine mode of organization could offer. The requirement for no deviation, in view of the assumption that human nature is essentially deviant, places high emphasis on tight supervision to ensure conformity, predictability, and reliability of individual behavior within the organization. This emphasis undermines the organization's creative ability and limits its response to meeting the increasing demand for variety and diversity. A defensive reaction to consumer dissatisfaction calls for greater adherence to the rules and more rigidity, resulting in a vicious circle.
另一方面,规模的增长往往会降低效率和组织效力。由于组织规模与其控制系统的有效性之间存在反比关系,大型组织被迫走向权力下放。但这一结果与无偏差和统一指挥的原则不一致。
On the other hand, growth in size tends to reduce efficiency and organizational effectiveness. Because of an inverse relationship between an organization's size and the effectiveness of its control system, large organizations are forced toward decentralization. But this result is inconsistent with the principle of no deviation and unity of command.
任何头脑正常的司机都不会驾驶前轮分散的汽车。在一个要求零件被动运转且具有高度兼容性和可预测性的组织中,分散化会导致混乱和次优化。生产的最佳答案可能与营销的最佳答案相冲突,也不一定与财务或人事的最佳答案一致。这可能是大多数大型组织不断在集中化和分散化之间摇摆不定的原因吗?
No driver in his or her right mind would drive a car with decentralized front wheels. In an organization that demands a passive functioning of parts with a high degree of compatibility and predictability, decentralization leads to chaos and suboptimization. The best answer for production may be in conflict with the best answer for marketing, and may not necessarily agree with the best answer for finance or personnel. Could this be why most large organizations constantly oscillate between centralization and decentralization?
与福特不同,斯隆认识到竞争的基础已从生产能力转变为管理增长和多样性的能力。他不仅利用公共融资来产生维持增长所需的资本,还利用新兴的生物模型来提供结构控制工具,使管理增长和多样性成为可能。
Unlike Ford, Sloan recognized that the basis for competition had changed from an ability to produce to an ability to manage growth and diversity. He not only used public financing to generate the necessary capital to sustain growth, but also capitalized on the emerging biological model to provide a structural vehicle for control that made it possible to manage growth and diversity.
最简单的公司形式分为两种不同的类型:公司办公室和运营部门。具有传统职能结构的公司办公室是“公司的大脑”,它拥有算法,这是一种产生期望结果并监控其执行的程序。另一方面,运营部门是身体,尽管具有半自主结构,但它没有选择,也没有意识。它只能对大脑的命令信号和/或环境中的事件做出反应。理想情况下,运营部门是一个机器人,它被编程为毫无偏差地执行公司办公室职能部门预先定义的一组程序。
Corporations, in their simplest form, are divided into two distinct types: corporate office and operating unit. A corporate office with a traditional functional structure is the “brain of the firm,” with an algorithm, which is a procedure for producing a desired outcome and for monitoring its implementation. The operating unit, on the other hand, is the body, which, despite a semi-autonomous structure, has no choice and no consciousness. It can only react to the command signal from the brain and/or events in its environment. Ideally, an operating unit is a robot programmed to carry out, with no deviation, a set of procedures predefined by the functional units of the corporate office.
这种运营模式的复制品——每个产品部门——都是根据需要创建的,以生产特定产品和/或服务并在特定市场销售。运营产品部门通常无权重新设计其产品或重新定义其市场。这些部门的主要职责是“坚持到底”。然而,他们需要预测其产品的需求并相应地调整其生产能力。因此,“预测和准备”的核心概念主导着管理过程,并在追求基本功能:增长和生存能力方面补充了部门结构。
Replicas of this operating model — each a product division — are created as needed to produce a given product and/or service and sell it in a specified market. Operating product divisions are usually not authorized to redesign their products or redefine their markets. The main responsibility of the groups is to “stay the course.” However, they are required to forecast the demand for their product and adjust their capacity to produce it accordingly. Therefore, the core concept of “predict and prepare” dominates the management process and complements the divisional structure in the pursuit of the essential functions: growth and viability.
二战后环境的稳定和可预测性为以产品为基础的事业部制组织提供了理想条件,然而,他们却在这场游戏中取得了成功,并再次改变了游戏规则。
The post-World War II environment, with its stability and predictability, provided an ideal condition for product-based divisional organizations. However, their very success in playing the game once again changed the game.
尽管分部制组织模式有着无可置疑的成功,但它也面临着两个前所未有的挑战:
The divisional mode of organization, despite its unquestionable successes, found itself up against two unprecedented challenges:
1. 新知识的操作化,以应对产品生命周期的整体缩短。
1. The operationalization of new knowledge, in response to an overall shortening of product life cycles.
2. 多元思想的现实,或理解组织成员之间选择的含义,以及因此产生的冲突。
2. The reality of multi-mindedness, or understanding the implication of choice, and thus conflict, among the organization's members.
最后,分部结构受到了来自两个不同方向的挑战:参与式管理和精益生产系统。两者同时出现,成为新竞争性游戏的替代基础。
The divisional structure, finally, was challenged from two different directions: participative management and the lean production system. Both were emerging in tandem as alternative bases for new competitive games.
财富和知识的空前创造和分配带来了更多选择,改变了美国社会环境和个人行为的性质。但选择的增加也带来了社会交往的复杂程度,这对生物思维模式来说却是双重危险。组织不仅变得更难管理,而且更容易受到少数人行为的影响。与生物体各部分不同,组织成员不会被动地对所收到的信息做出反应。
The unprecedented generation and distribution of wealth and knowledge resulted in ever higher levels of choice, which changed the nature of social settings and individual behavior in America. But the enhancement of choice, which resulted in higher levels of sophistication in social interactions, proved a double jeopardy for the biological mode of thinking. Not only did organizations conceived as uni-minded systems become more difficult to manage, but they also became more vulnerable to the actions of a few. Members of an organization, unlike the parts of a biological being, do not react passively to the information they receive.
在强大的家长制文化中,冲突可以通过强势父亲形象的介入来解决,但高度发达的多元思想社会体系的现实情况则截然不同。已经超越家长制文化安全、统一网络的社会成员表现出真正的选择。但这种转变必须付出代价,尤其是在不安全感和冲突程度方面。有目的的行为者,无论是个人还是团体,都会因彼此在所选择的目的和手段的兼容性上产生前所未有的冲突。
In a strong paternalistic culture, conflict can be resolved by the intervention of a strong father figure, but the realities of highly developed multi-minded social systems are fundamentally different. Members of societies that have outgrown the secure, unifying web of a paternalistic culture display real choice. But a price must be paid for this transformation, especially in terms of insecurity and the level of conflict. The purposeful actors, individually or in groups, generate unprecedented levels of conflict by disagreeing with each other on the compatibility of their chosen ends and means.
美国企业尚未具备有效应对其成员有目的行为所造成的后果的能力,因此发现自己越来越无能为力。其很大一部分精力都浪费在冲突上,这并不奇怪。过度冲突带来的挫败感加剧了组织变革的无能为力。成员的行为越来越独立,管理层以授权为借口放弃了其权力和责任。似乎没有人能够掌控整合。无能为力和疏离感随处可见。
Corporate America, yet ill-equipped to deal effectively with the consequences of its members' purposeful behavior, is finding itself increasingly paralyzed. It is not surprising that a significant part of its energy is lost to the conflict. Frustration associated with excessive levels of conflict reinforces the organizational inability to change. Members increasingly behave independently, and management, on the pretext of empowerment, abdicates its authority and responsibility. Nobody seems to have a handle on integration. Feelings of impotency and alienation are commonplace.
追求无冲突组织的理想已被证明存在问题。创建无冲突组织意味着选择减少,成员沦为机器人。这种情况即使可行,也可能不是理想的。
Pursuing the ideal of a conflict-free organization has proved problematic. Creating a conflict-free organization means less choice, reducing members to the level of robots. Such a situation, even if feasible, may not be desirable.
由于无法将半熟的鸡蛋煮熟,我们拒绝了家长式文化,但尚未找到有效的替代方法。不幸的是,工作生活质量 (QWL)、参与式管理、多功能团队以及社会技术提供的其他概念尚未向我们展示如何管理多思想的复杂性并有效地化解冲突。我们仍然在集中化和分散化、集体化和个性化、整合和差异化之间摇摆不定,没有意识到这些趋势的互补性。我们将在本书的第二部分更详细地讨论这些问题。
Unable to uncook eggs already half-cooked, we have rejected the paternalistic culture, but have not yet found an effective replacement for it. Unfortunately, quality of work life (QWL), participative management, multifunctional teams, and the other concepts that socio-tech had to offer have yet to show us how to manage a multi-minded complexity and effectively dissolve conflict. We are still oscillating between centralization and decentralization, collectivity and individuality, and integration and differentiation, without appreciating the complementary nature of these tendencies. We will deal with these issues in more detail in Part Two of this book.
接下来的三款游戏代表了双重范式转变的另一个维度,即应对相互依赖的挑战。它们实际上描绘了在机械、生物和社会文化组织模式背景下系统思维的演变。
The next three games represent the other dimension of the dual paradigm shift, dealing with the challenge of interdependency. They actually map the evolution of systems thinking in the context of mechanical, biological, and sociocultural models of organization.
第一个运筹学 (OR) 小组由阿科夫和丘奇曼在凯斯理工学院创建,该小组成功应对了相互依赖的挑战,并促使运筹学项目在美国大多数大学中普及。但运筹学在美国企业中的首次全面应用是福特的神童们,当时麦克纳马拉和他的同事从国防部调到福特公司。
The success of the first Operations Research (OR) group, created by Ackoff and Churchman at the Case Institute of Technology, which dealt with the challenge of interdependency, resulted in the spread of OR programs to most American universities. But the first full application of OR in corporate America came with Ford's whiz kids, when McNamara and his associates moved from the Defense Department to the Ford Corporation.
这一努力的本质是利用模型(基本上是数学模型)来寻找一系列相互依赖变量的最佳解决方案。然而,关于组织性质的假设仍然是机械的。麻省理工学院的 J. Forrester 开发的系统动力学概念对这一系统思维版本做出了另一个重要贡献。
The essence of this effort was to use models, basically mathematical, to find optimal solutions to a series of interdependent variables. However, the assumptions regarding the nature of the organization remained mechanical. The other significant contribution to this version of systems thinking was the concept of systems dynamics developed by J. Forrester of MIT.
研发时代带来了大量新知识。这些知识一旦成功投入使用,就会彻底改变竞争格局。新一代的赢家是那些能够通过互动影响环境来创造自己未来的玩家。游戏的名称变成了灵活性和控制力,这缩短了新产品的上市时间,增加了产品/市场差异化,提高了产出的性价比,用更少的资源做更多的事情。
The research and development era had generated explosions of new knowledge. This knowledge, when successfully operationalized, radically changed the competitive game. The new generation of winners were those players with the ability to create their own future by interactively influencing their environment. The name of the game became flexibility and control, which shortened the time to market of a new product, increased product/market differentiation, and improved price/quality performance of the outputs, doing more and more with less and less.
这种游戏在日本缓慢但有效地出现,当时丰田汽车公司的首席工程师大野将系统思维应用于生物学背景,创建了精益生产系统。利用控制论原理,他能够将盈亏平衡点降低一个数量级,并将竞争游戏提升到一个令人难以置信的更高水平。在这场游戏中,灵活性和控制力成为竞争的基础。
This game emerged slowly but effectively in Japan, when Ohno, Chief Engineer of Toyota, created the lean production system by applying systems thinking in the biological context. Using cybernetic principles, he was able to lower the break-even point by an order of magnitude and elevated the competitive game to an incredibly higher level. In this game, flexibility and control became the basis for competition.
设计是阿科夫 (1972) 开发的目的系统范式的操作体现,旨在应对管理高度相互依存的社会组织中有目的的成员之间的互动的挑战。
Design is the operational manifestation of the purposeful systems paradigm developed by Ackoff (1972) in response to the challenge of managing interactions between purposeful members of a highly interdependent social organization.
设计师寻求的是选择而不是预测未来。他们试图理解选择的理性、情感和文化层面,并设计出满足多种功能的设计。设计方法要求设计师学会如何使用他们已知的知识,学会如何认识到他们不知道的知识,学会如何学习他们需要知道的知识。最后,进行设计需要意识到系统某一部分的活动如何影响和受其他部分的影响。这种意识需要理解各部分之间相互作用的性质。
Designers seek to choose rather than predict the future. They try to understand rational, emotional, and cultural dimensions of choice and to produce a design that satisfies a multitude of functions. The design methodology requires that designers learn how to use what they already know, learn how to realize what they do not know, and learn how to learn what they need to know. Finally, producing a design requires an awareness of how activities of one part of a system affect and are affected by other parts. This awareness requires understanding the nature of interactions among the parts.
• 1982 年经济衰退(美国大型银行几乎损失了所有累计收益)
• 1982 recession (large American banks lost close to all their cumulative earnings)
• 20 世纪 90 年代初房地产崩溃(储蓄和贷款被彻底摧毁,损失达 5000 亿美元)。
• Real state collapse of early 1990s (savings and loans were wiped out at the cost of $500 billion).
• 1998 年股市崩盘(互联网泡沫)
• 1998 collapse of stock market (dotcom bubble)
• 2009 年金融危机(房地产泡沫和抵押贷款危机,损失金额可能达数万亿美元)
• 2009 financial crisis (housing bubble and mortgage fiasco, possibly trillions of dollars)
不幸的是,这项任务不仅仅是学术讨论,它需要巨大的情感斗争和巨大的文化挑战。参与这个过程,除了能力之外,还需要勇气。
Unfortunately the task is not just an academic discourse; it demands enormous emotional struggles and a huge cultural challenge. Engagement in this process, in addition to competence, requires courage.
介绍
Introduction
英国牛津大学一块布告栏上的涂鸦写道:“上帝已死。”下面还写着:“不!”“他只是在做一个不那么雄心勃勃的项目。”
“GOD IS DEAD,” says graffiti on a notice board in Oxford University, England. “NO!” it says underneath, “HE IS JUST WORKING ON A LESS AMBITIOUS PROJECT.”
也许上帝已经放弃了有序和确定性世界的想法。也许他/她开玩笑地决定将世界与某种程度的随机性和选择混合在一起,或者也许这一直都是事态。古波斯先知琐罗亚斯德在大约 3000 年前宣称:
Maybe God has given up the idea of an orderly and deterministic world. Maybe he/she has playfully decided to mix it up with some degree of randomness and choice, or maybe this has been the state of affairs all along. Zoroaster, the ancient Persian prophet, proclaimed this some 3,000 years ago:
也许拥有选择权并不是幻觉。然而,选择只是三个要素之一。选择与机会(随机性)和确定性(自然法则)的相互作用确实可以产生一些违反直觉的结果。
Maybe having choice is not an illusion, after all. Nevertheless, choice is but one of the three elements. The interaction of choice with chance (randomness) and certainty (laws of nature) can indeed produce some counterintuitive outcomes.
自然科学发现了“混乱”,社会科学遇到了“复杂性”。但混乱和复杂性并不是我们新现实的特征,而是我们感知和理解的特征。我们认为世界越来越复杂和混乱,因为我们用不充分的概念来解释它。当我们理解某件事时,我们不再认为它是混乱或复杂的。也许玩新游戏需要学习一门新语言。
Natural science has discovered “chaos.” Social science has encountered “complexity.” But chaos and complexity are not characteristics of our new reality; they are features of our perceptions and understanding. We see the world as increasingly more complex and chaotic because we use inadequate concepts to explain it. When we understand something, we no longer see it as chaotic or complex. Maybe playing the new game requires learning a new language.
我们用多种语言来表达我们在世界上生存的不同方式。我们最初以神话的形式讲述我们的生活故事。我们用歌唱、舞蹈和仪式来表达它,这些仪式定义了我们文化的参数,并因此在危险的环境中给予我们一定程度的安全感。随着我们熟练程度的提高,我们的学习和创造能力也随之提高。我们开始用诗歌、数学、哲学和科学语言写作。音乐曾与文学和艺术一起创造出我们最美丽的文字。
We have used a multitude of languages to express the different ways in which we exist in the world. We first told the story of our lives as myth. We sang it, danced it, and expressed it in rituals that defined the parameters of our cultures and so gave us a degree of security in a threatening environment. As our proficiency increased, so did our learning and creative capacity. We started writing in the languages of poetry, mathematics, philosophy, and science. There were times when music, along with literature and art, produced our most beautiful texts.
但在过去的一个世纪里,我们越来越专注于一种语言,即分析科学的语言。由于我们只强调一种语言而排斥所有其他语言,我们变得单一 — — 而且乏味而可预测。
But during the past century, we increasingly specialized in one language, the language of analytical science. As we emphasized one language to the exclusion of all others, we became unidimensional — and boringly predictable.
如今,分析语言已经渗透到我们生活的方方面面。我们的生产、组织、互动、交流系统——甚至我们对娱乐、运动和食物的选择——都是根据分析工具的假设和应用来完成的。寻找相关性是当务之急。在所有领域,畅销书都是那些简单地确定获胜者的一些共同属性的书。没有人可以否认这种语言的成功,但它的重要性已经与它作为一种探究方法的地位不成比例。当一个游戏规定了所有游戏的规则时,无论你创造了多少新游戏,它们都是同一类游戏。
Today the analytical language has penetrated every facet of our lives. Our system of production, organization, interaction, communication — even our choice of recreation, sport, and foods —is done in terms of the assumptions and applications of analytical tools. Finding a correlation is the order of the day. Best sellers, in all areas, are those that simply identity a few common attributes of the winners. No one can deny the success of this language, but it has acquired an importance disproportionate to its position as only one method of inquiry. When one game states the rules for all games, it does not matter how many new games you create, they are all the same kind.
不幸的是,历史对那些如此广泛地利用单一制胜策略的人并不宽容。只选择一种生存模式的代价非常高昂。
History, unfortunately, has not been too kind to those who have capitalized so extensively on a single winning strategy. The price on selecting only one pattern of existence has been very high.
疏离、权力欲、挫折感、不安全感和无聊只是新兴文化的一些症状,在这种文化中,现成的知识产品正在使大众舆论的形成成为大规模生产的问题。
Alienation, lust for power, frustration, insecurity, and boredom are only a few symptoms of the emerging culture where ready-made intellectual goods are making the formation of mass opinion a matter of mass production.
这种将一切简化到不需要认真思考的程度的倾向,已经将政治体系变成了一个投票行业,它假设人们在选举决策者时,就确保了他们对自己生活的选择。我们让分析文化的默认价值观定义了什么是好的、适当的和美丽的。
The tendency to simplify everything to a level not requiring serious thinking has turned the political system into a voting industry, which assumes that people are ensured choice over their lives when they elect the decision makers. We have let the default values of an analytical culture define what is good, proper, and beautiful.
但不知何故,我们思考生活的方式缺少了一些东西。我们这个时代的主流语言只能让我们对现实产生部分理解,只与我们存在的一部分有关,而不是全部。我们需要一种整体的语言,一种系统的语言,它能让我们看透混乱,理解复杂性。一种互动和设计的语言将帮助我们通过考虑各种观察、做事和存在于这个世界的方式,来学习一种新的生活方式。
But, somehow, something is missing with the way we think about our lives. What has become the dominant language of our time produces only a partial understanding of our reality and relates only to parts of our being, not the whole of it. We need a holistic language, a language of systems, which will allow us to see through chaos and understand complexity. A language of interaction and design will help us learn a new mode of living by considering various ways of seeing, doing, and being in the world.
然后,我们可以设计新的研究方法、新的组织模式和生活方式,让相互依存但又自主的社会存在做出理性、情感和道德的选择。
We can then design new methods of inquiry, new modes of organization, and a way of life that will allow the rational, emotional, and ethical choices for interdependent yet autonomous social beings.
系统语言必然具有两个维度。第一个维度是理解系统本质或多思维系统行为特征的框架。第二个维度是操作系统方法论,它不仅仅是简单地声明系统方法论的可取性,还提供了一种定义问题和设计解决方案的实用方法。
The systems language, by necessity, will have two dimensions. The first will be a framework for understanding the nature of the beast, or the behavioral characteristics of multi-minded systems. The second will be an operational systems methodology, which goes beyond simply declaring the desirability of the systems approach and provides a practical way to define problems and design solutions.
对于那些在全面质量管理 (TQM) 方面具有深厚背景的读者,需要注意的是,TQM 和系统思维之间存在根本区别。TQM 在现有范式内运作;它可以作为一套独立的工具和方法进行学习和应用。但系统方法论不能脱离系统原则。如果系统工具和方法脱离了它们所不可或缺的范式,它们将无能为力。
A note of caution to those readers with a strong background in total quality management (TQM). There is a fundamental difference between TQM and systems thinking. TQM operates within an existing paradigm; it could be learned and applied as an independent set of tools and methods. But systems methodology cannot be separated from systems principles. Systems tools and methods are impotent if isolated from the paradigm of which they are an integral part.
第二章 系统原理
Chapter Two. Systems Principles
要理解多思维系统的行为特征,我们需要一个系统概念系统。五项系统原则——开放性、目的性、多维性、突发属性和反直觉行为——形成一个互动的整体,它们共同定义了社会文化系统本质的基本特征和基本假设。它们是成为系统思考者和设计师所需的心智模型的基石。
To understand the behavioral characteristics of multi-minded systems we need a system of systems concepts. Five systems principles — openness, purposefulness, multidimensionality, emergent properties, and counterintuitive behavior — form an interactive whole that together define the essential characteristics and underlying assumptions about the nature of a sociocultural system. They are the building blocks of the mental model needed to become a systems thinker and designer.
这些原则是第三代系统思维不可或缺的一部分。它们的含义将体现在系统方法论的各个方面,从定义问题到设计解决方案。如果脱离了其所属的范式,系统方法论将无能为力。
These principles are an integral part of the third-generation systems thinking. Their implications will be present in every aspect of systems methodology, from defining problems to designing solutions. Systems methodology is impotent if isolated from the paradigm of which it is a part.
这些原则是第三代系统观不可或缺的一部分。它们的含义将体现在本书的各个方面和所有后续部分,从定义问题到设计解决方案。请仔细阅读它们,不止一次。让它们成为你自己的。在不同的环境中使用它们,这样你就可以内化它们。它们是你成为系统思考者和系统设计师所需构建的心理模型的基石。
These principles are an integral part of the third-generation systems view. Their implications will be present in every aspect and in all of the subsequent parts of this work, from defining problems to designing solutions. Please read them carefully, more than once. Make them your own. Use them in different contexts so you can internalize them. They are the building blocks of the mental model you will need to construct to become a systems thinker and systems designer.
开放性意味着,只有在其环境的背景下,才能理解生命(开放)系统的行为。世界确实是一个复杂的互动整体。因此,即使是对人性的真正探究,如对自由的热爱、对权力的渴望和对幸福的追求,都是抽象的概念,如果脱离其所属的背景或文化,就无法有意义地去理解。
Openness means that the behavior of living (open) systems can be understood only in the context of their environment. The world is, indeed, a complex whole in interaction. Therefore, even genuine inquiries regarding human nature, such as the love of liberty, lust for power, and search for happiness, are abstractions that cannot be meaningfully entertained when separated from the context, or the culture of which they are a part.
我们可以有些无助地观察到,“一切”都依赖于“其他一切”,并得出结论,我们不应该扰乱“事物的自然秩序”,我们最好把一切交给掌控一切的“唯一者”手中。
We can observe, somewhat helplessly, that “everything” depends on “everything else,” concluding that we should not mess around with “the natural order of things” and that we may be better off leaving everything in the hands of the “One” who has control over all.
我们的第一个突破是认识到,尽管一切都依赖于其他一切,但这些“一切”可以分为两类:那些可以以某种方式控制的元素和那些无法控制的元素。这种区别为我们提供了系统、环境和系统边界的操作定义。
Our first break came by recognizing that although everything depends on everything else, this “everything” can be grouped into two categories: those elements that somehow can be controlled and those that cannot. This distinction gave us an operational definition of the system, environment, and system boundary.
因此,系统由所有可由参与参与者控制的交互变量集组成。同时,环境由所有那些虽然会影响系统行为但无法由系统控制的变量组成。因此,系统边界成为一种任意的、主观的构造,由参与参与者的利益和能力和/或权威水平定义。
The system therefore consists of all of the interactive sets of variables that could be controlled by participating actors. Meanwhile, the environment consists of all those variables that, although affecting the system's behavior, could not be controlled by it. The system boundary thus becomes an arbitrary, subjective construct defined by the interest and the level of the ability and/or authority of the participating actors.
然后出现了第二个突破。我们发现,尽管环境变量的行为不可控,但或多或少是可以预测的。在大多数情况下,环境变量越难控制,就越容易预测。
Then a second break came along. We discovered that the behavior of the variables in the environment, although uncontrollable, is more or less predictable. In most cases, the less controllable a contextual variable, the more predictable it becomes.
控制意味着某种行为对于产生预期结果而言是必要且充分的。影响则意味着该行为并不充分,它只是一种附带因素。
To control means that an action is both necessary and sufficient to produce the intended outcome. To influence means that the action is not sufficient; it is only a coproducer.
然而,随着我们对环境的了解不断增加,我们将不可控变量转化为可影响变量的能力也不断增强。随着我们影响变量的能力不断增强,我们预测变量的能力也不断减弱。如果祈雨舞对天气有任何影响,我们就无法预测天气了。讽刺的是,我们预测天气的能力之强表明我们可能没有正确地进行祈雨舞。
As our knowledge about the environment increased, however, so did our ability to convert the uncontrollable variables to those that could be influenced. As we increased our ability to influence a variable, we decreased our ability to predict it. If a rain dance had any influence on the weather, we would not be able to predict the weather. Ironically, the extent to which we are able to predict the weather is an indication that we might not be performing the rain dance properly.
顾客过去是可以预测的,但无法控制的。我们被告知他们总是对的。他们越来越容易受到影响,因此越来越难以预测。似乎书呆子正在接管一切。老板也变得奇怪和难以预测。
Customers used to be predictable, but uncontrollable. We were told they were always right. Increasingly, they are becoming more and more susceptible to influence and therefore are less and less predictable. It seems that the nerds are taking over. The boss has become weird and unpredictable as well.
供应商曾经是最听话的群体。他们按照吩咐行事。如今他们声称掌握着核心技术。谁在控制着计算机行业?并不是 IBM 这样的大型系统公司在掌控着一切;而是零部件制造商,也就是微软和英特尔,他们有更多发言权,而且很有可能才是控制者。
Suppliers used to be the most agreeable group. They did what they were told. Today they claim to house the core technology. Who is in control of the computer industry? It is not the big system houses like IBM that are in charge; it is the component builders, the Microsofts and Intels of the world, that have much more to say and are, in all likelihood, the ones in control.
慢慢地,我们意识到我们实际上无法控制很多事情,但却有能力影响很多事情。我真的不知道我身上有多少是我,又有多少是我爱的人。因此,管理一个系统越来越多地意味着管理它的交易环境,也就是向上管理。因此,领导力被定义为影响那些我们无法控制的人的能力。
Slowly, we are realizing that we do not actually control much of anything, but do have the ability to influence many things. I do not really know how much of me is me and how much is those I love. Managing a system is therefore more and more about managing its transactional environment, that is, managing upward. Leadership is therefore defined as the ability to influence those whom we do not control.
作为开放的(生命)系统,社会群体(如组织)表现出同样的趋势,即朝着预先定义的秩序发展。因此,文化代码成为生物 DNA 的社会等价物,这些隐藏的假设深深扎根于我们集体记忆的核心。如果任由这些内部代码自组织,它们默认充当组织原则,不可避免地会重现现有秩序。
As open (living) systems, social groups such as organizations exhibit the same tendency, a movement toward a predefined order. Therefore, the cultural code becomes the social equivalent of biological DNA, those hidden assumptions deeply anchored at the very core of our collective memory. Left to be self-organized, these internal codes, by default, act as organizing principles that invariably reproduce the existing order.
总结一下主要观点,我的观点如下:
To summarize the major points, I have argued the following:
• 领导力是向上的管理;它是关于影响你无法控制的事物,并欣赏你无法影响的事物。
• Leadership is managing upward; it is about influencing what one cannot control and appreciating what one cannot influence.
• 开放系统默认受内部行为准则(DNA 或文化)的指导。如果不受干扰,开放系统往往会自我复制。
• Open systems, by default, are guided by an internal code of conduct (DNA or culture). If left alone, open systems tend to reproduce themselves.
以下例子更清楚地解释了选择的概念。我的女儿杰兰只有五岁,她经常在床上跳来跳去。我对她说:“杰兰,如果我是你,我就不会这么做。”她无辜地看着我,回答说:“不,我不这么认为。如果你是我,你就会做我正在做的事情。你不知道这有多令人兴奋。”
The following examples explains this notion of choice with much more clarity. My daughter Jeyran was only five and jumping up and down on our bed. I said to her, “Jeyran, I would not do that if I were you.” Giving me an innocent look, she replied, “No, I don't think so. If you were me, you would be doing exactly what I'm doing. You don't know how exciting this is.”
事实上,在寻找这一理由的过程中,我学到了职业生涯中最重要的一课:市场经济和民主一样,只会做出理性的选择。获胜者不一定是最好的,而是那些与现有秩序最相容的人。领先于时代有时比落后更悲惨。
Actually, in trying to find this rationale, I learned the most important lesson of my professional life: market economies, like democracies, make only rational choices. The winners are not necessarily the best, but those who are most compatible with the existing order. Being ahead of your time is sometimes more tragic than falling behind.
福特基金会在印度的节育项目的故事让我大开眼界。在一次对印度的工作访问中,我的高级合伙人拉斯·阿科夫会见了一些试图向印度人传授计划生育和节育知识的美国人。他们没有成功,并对该项目未能产生任何结果感到沮丧。“印度人是非理性的,”项目经理告诉拉斯。“他们知道人口是他们的头号敌人,而我们在这里教他们节育,给他们所需的所有避孕药具,外加一台晶体管收音机作为奖励。但看看发生了什么。他们回家,打开收音机,在音乐中生下一个新婴儿。”拉斯建议他们不能简单地将这种行为视为非理性,而应该寻找其他解释。项目经理随后拿出一份报纸剪报,报道一名印度妇女生下了她的第 27 个孩子,并补充说:“如果这不是非理性的,那我不知道什么是非理性!”
The story of the Ford Foundation's birth control project in India was another eye-opener for me. During a working visit to India, my senior partner, Russ Ackoff, met a number of Americans trying to teach family planning and birth control to Indians. They were not succeeding and were frustrated over the program's failure to produce any results. “Indians are irrational,” the project manager told Russ. “They know population is their number-one enemy, and here we are teaching them control, giving them all the contraceptives they need, plus a transistor radio as a reward. But look what happens. They go home, turn the radio on, and with music make a new baby.” Russ suggested that they simply could not dismiss this behavior as irrational and should be looking for other explanations. The project manager then produced a newspaper clipping in which it was reported that an Indian woman had given birth to her 27th child, adding “If this isn't irrational then I don't know what irrational is!”
那么,谁不理智呢?那对通过参加讲座获得免费晶体管收音机的印度夫妇?还是那位认为只要给一对夫妇一台晶体管收音机就能让他们放弃退休生活的福特基金会人士?
Now who was irrational? The Indian couple who got a free transistor radio by attending a lecture? Or the Ford Foundation guy who thought he could get a couple to give up their retirement by giving them a transistor radio?
沃顿商学院的同事兼朋友阿隆·卡特塞伦博伊根教授喜欢用国际象棋中的情节来解释有趣的社会现象。我曾经问过他,为什么大多数国际象棋选手都喜欢和比自己厉害得多的人一起下棋。“这是挑战,”他回答道。“如果获胜伴随着真正的挑战,那就会很有趣。”
A colleague and friend at the Wharton School, Professor Aron Katselenenboigen, liked to use episodes in chess to explain interesting social phenomena. I once asked him why a majority of chess players like to play with those who are much better at the game than themselves. “It's the challenge,” he replied. “Winning is fun if it's associated with a real challenge.”
我在沃顿商学院的 10 名研究生中测试了这个理论。我们有一个计算机程序,可以进行九个不同级别的国际象棋对弈。第一级非常简单。任何具有国际象棋基础知识的人都可以毫无困难地获胜。然而,更高级别的挑战性要大得多。例如,要在第六级获胜,就需要相当的熟练程度。每个学生都被告知,他/她可以进行 10 场他/她想要的任何级别的比赛;每赢一局他/她将获得一美元,每输一局他/她必须退还一美元。
I tested this theory with 10 of my graduate students at Wharton. We had a computer program that could play chess at nine different levels. Level one was very simple. Anyone with a basic knowledge of chess could win with no difficulty. However, the higher levels posed a much greater challenge. Winning at level six, for example, required considerable mastery. Each student was told that he/she could play 10 games at any level he/she wanted; for every game won he/she would receive a dollar, and for every game lost he/she would have to give back a dollar.
所有学生都是从第一级开始的,但赢了几美元后就都晋级了。到比赛结束时,大多数人都晋级到了第五级,其中两人甚至晋级到了第六级。
All the students started at level one, but after winning a few dollars all moved to higher levels. By the finishing time most were playing at level five, and two were even at level six.
如果我们的决策标准中没有好挑战带来的兴奋感,生活就会变得无聊。换句话说,设定和寻求可实现的目标是一种平庸的生活。这可能会让许多“人力资源经理”感到惊讶,但它肯定解释了企业生活中大部分环节的无聊和无意义。
If the excitement of a good challenge were not part of our decision criteria, life would be a bore. In other words, setting and seeking attainable goals is a banal existence. This may come as a surprise to many “human resource managers,” but for sure it explains the boredom and meaninglessness associated with huge segments of corporate life.
与理性选择不同,理性选择反映的是工具性(外在)价值观,而情感维度则涉及风格性(内在)价值观。情感是从情绪状态本身中获得的享受和满足。理性选择厌恶风险,而情感选择则不然。风险是刺激和挑战的重要属性。
In contrast to rational choice, which reflects on instrumental (extrinsic) values, the emotional dimension deals with stylistic (intrinsic) values. It is the enjoyment and satisfaction derived from the emotional state in and of itself. While rational choice is risk aversive, emotional choice is not. Risk is an important attribute of excitement and challenge.
有目的的系统是价值导向的系统;换句话说,价值观是有目的的行为所要努力实现的目标。这些价值观往往隐含在文化中,决策者甚至不知道自己有选择权。默认价值观通常被视为现实;只要没有人愿意挑战它们,它们就会一直存在。
Purposeful systems are value-guided systems; in other words, values are what purposeful behaviors strive to achieve. More often than not, these values are implicit in the culture, and the decision maker is not even aware that she/he has a choice. Default values are usually treated as realities out there; and they will remain out there as long as no one is willing to challenge them.
状态维持系统是一种在不同环境条件下对变化作出反应以维持其状态的系统。这样的系统可以作出反应(而不是响应),因为在给定系统结构的情况下,所做的完全由其环境的变化决定。尽管如此,它还是通过在不同条件下以不同的方式维持其状态来执行内在功能。例如,许多加热系统都是状态维持的。当室温低于所需水平时,内部控制器会打开系统,而当温度高于此水平时,则会关闭系统。维持的状态是室温。这样的系统能够适应变化,但无法学习,因为它无法选择其行为。它无法通过经验改进。
A state-maintaining system is one that reacts to changes to maintain its state under different environmental conditions. Such a system can react (not respond) because what is done is determined entirely by the change in its environment, given the structure of the system. Nevertheless, it performs an intrinsic function by maintaining its state in a different way under different conditions. For example, many heating systems are state-maintaining. An internal controller turns the system on when the room temperature goes below a desired level, then turns it off when the temperature goes above this level. The state maintained is the room temperature. Such a system is able to adapt to change but is not capable of learning, because it cannot choose its behavior. It cannot improve with experience.
目标寻求系统是指能够对相同或不同环境中的不同事件做出不同反应,直至产生特定结果(状态)的系统。产生这种状态是其目标。这样的系统可以选择手段,但不能选择目的;因此,它是响应性的,而不是被动的。响应是自愿的,而反应不是。例如,低级动物可以在相同或不同的环境中以不同的方式寻找食物。如果目标寻求系统具有记忆,它可以随着时间的推移学会更有效地追求其目标。
A goal-seeking system is one that can respond differently to different events in the same or a different environment until it produces a particular outcome (state). Production of this state is its goal. Such a system has a choice of means but not of ends; hence it is responsive rather than reactive. Response is voluntary; reaction is not. For example, lower level animals can seek food in different ways in the same or a different environment. If a goal-seeking system has memory it can learn to pursue its goal more efficiently over time.
有目的的系统不仅可以在相同环境中以不同方式产生相同结果,还可以在相同和不同环境中产生不同结果。它可以在恒定条件下改变其目的。这种在恒定条件下改变目的的能力是自由意志的体现。这样的系统不仅可以学习和适应;它们还可以创造。人类就是这种系统的例子。
A purposeful system is one that can produce not only the same outcomes in different ways in the same environment but also different outcomes in both the same and different environments. It can change its ends under constant conditions. This ability to change ends under constant conditions is what exemplifies free will. Such systems not only learn and adapt; they can also create. Human beings are examples of such systems.
目的性系统具备目标寻求系统和状态维持系统的所有能力,而目标寻求系统则具备状态维持系统的能力,反之则不然。
Purposeful systems have all the capabilities of goal-seeking and state-maintaining systems. Meanwhile, goal-seeking systems have the capabilities of state-maintaining systems, although the converse is not true.
这引出了我们下一个讨论:多维性原则。
This brings us to the next discussion: the principle of multidimensionality.
• 世界不是由那些正确的人统治的,而是由那些能够说服别人他们是正确的人统治的。
• The world is not run by those who are right. It is run by those who can convince others they are right.
• 选择有三个方面:理性(自身利益)、情感(兴奋)和文化(默认)。
• Choice has three aspects: rational (self-interest), emotional (excitement), and cultural (default).
• 理性选择厌恶风险,而感性选择则不然。风险是刺激和挑战的重要属性。
• While rational choice is risk averse, emotional choice is not. Risk is an important attribute of excitement and challenge.
• 只要没有人愿意挑战,现实就将永远存在。
• Realities out there will remain out there as long as no one is willing to challenge them.
• 选择是能力的问题,意味着有能力去做。没有能力的自由是空谈。
• Choice is a matter of competence; it implies power-to-do. Liberty without competence is an empty proposition.
对于大多数文化来说,谬误主导了人们将对立倾向视为零和博弈中的二元性。一切似乎都是一对对立的:安全/自由、秩序/复杂、集体/个性、现代/传统、艺术/科学等等。它们被置于这样一种对立中:一方的胜利必然与另一方的失败相关。
For the majority of cultures, a fallacy has dominated the treatment of opposing tendencies as a duality in a zero-sum game. Everything seems to come in a pair of opposites: security/freedom, order/complexity, collectivity/individuality, modernity/tradition, art/science, and so on. They are cast in such a way that a win for one is invariably associated with a loss for the other.
此外,考虑一下安全与自由之间的关系。一个人如果没有安全,就不可能自由;一个人如果没有自由,就不可能安全。也许自由、正义和安全是同一事物的三个方面,本来就不应该分开。当然,孤立地看待它们是有问题的。
Furthermore, consider the relation between security and freedom. One cannot be free if one is not secure; one will not be secure if one is not free. Maybe freedom, justice, and security are three aspects of the same thing and were not meant to be separated in the first place. Certainly, treating them in isolation has been problematic.
这是一种非零和博弈,一方的损失并不一定意味着另一方的收益;相反,两种相反的趋势可以同时增加或减少。
This is a non-zero-sum formulation in which a loss for one side is not necessarily a gain for the other; on the contrary, both opposing tendencies can increase or decrease simultaneously.
使用多维表示,人们可以看到以前被视为二分法的趋势如何相互作用并整合成某种全新的东西。增加新的维度使我们能够发现新的参考框架,在这些参考框架中,可以用新的整体和新的逻辑来解释对立的趋势。
Using a multidimensional representation, one can see how the tendencies previously considered as dichotomies can interact and be integrated into something quite new. The addition of new dimensions makes it possible to discover new frames of reference in which opposing sets of tendencies can be interpreted in a new ensemble with a new logic of its own.
请注意,在经典逻辑中,矛盾是相对于领域的;添加新的维度会扩展领域并将矛盾转化为互补。
Note that in classical logic, contradictions are relative to a domain; adding a new dimension expands the domain and converts the contradictions to complementaries.
如果我每周赚 10 美元,我可能会吃一个汉堡包;如果我每周赚 20 美元,我可能会吃两个;如果我每周赚 30 美元,我可能会尝试吃三个。但是,如果我每周赚 1,000 美元,我不会吃 100 个汉堡包。我可能根本不吃汉堡包。因此,我的收入的量变在某个时候导致了我生活方式的质变。这就是低收入和高收入的区分点。
If I make $10 a week, I may eat one hamburger; with $20 I may have two; and with $30 I will try three. However, if I make $1,000 a week, I will not eat 100 hamburgers. I may not eat hamburgers at all. Therefore, a quantitative change in my income at some point has produced a qualitative change in my way of life. That is the point of distinction between the low and the high level of income.
只要人们认识到其基本的假设和局限性,类型学就可以显示多维系统的行为如何根据对一个或另一个维度的强调而产生显著差异。
Provided one is aware of their underlying assumptions and limitations, typologies can show how behavior of a multidimensional system differs significantly according to the emphasis on one or the other dimension.
高/高代表成熟系统的行为,通过变革寻求稳定。低/高反映出激进系统不惜一切代价寻求变革,但它可以是反动的,也可以是进步的,这取决于寻求变革的方向。另一方面,高/低代表保守的国家,倾向于维持现状,因此倾向于监管和妥协。但低/低是无政府状态,对变革和稳定关注度较低,反对任何形式的政府。
The high/high represents the behavior of a mature system, searching for stability through change. While the low/high reflects a radical system interested in change at any price, it can be reactionary or progressive, depending on the direction of the change sought. The high/low, on the other hand, represents a conservative state, preferring the status quo and, therefore, a tendency for regulation and compromise. But the low/low is anarchy with a low concern for change and a low concern for stability, opposed to government in any form.
因此,关注程度的不同组合(低或高)将产生不同的行为模式。每种模式都代表一种新的系统,其特征只有通过其自身才能理解。
Therefore, with different combinations of the levels of concern (low or high), different modes of behavior will emerge. Each mode represents a new system whose character can be understood only in its own right.
1.9 是家长式、平民主义的领导者,他们对人的关心基本上是对他们弱点的关心。因此,他/她扮演着保护者的角色。而 9.9 的领导者对人的关心主要源于对他们能力和个性的尊重。他/她扮演着不同的角色——激励者的角色。
The 1.9 is a paternalistic, populist leader, whose concern for people is basically a concern for their weaknesses. Therefore, he/she assumes a protective role. Meanwhile, the 9.9 is a leader whose main concern for people stems from a respect for their ability and individuality. He/she assumes a different role — that of a motivator.
一个系统可以有多种功能,既有隐含功能,也有显含功能。例如,汽车除了具有明确的交通功能外,还可能具有隐含功能,例如身份标签。对许多人来说,汽车定义了车主的生活方式,并具有相当大的势利价值。
A system can have multiple functions, both implicit and explicit. A car, for example, in addition to having the explicit function of transportation, might have an implicit function of, say, an identification tag. For many, a car defines the lifestyle of its owner and can have considerable snob value.
此外,投资者可能会认为汽车公司是一台赚钱机器,而工会领袖则认为它是创造就业机会的系统。对于企业家来说,组织可能是一个终生挑战,要创建一个成功的系统;然而,对于专业的企业公民来说,它可能是内部权力游戏的平台。事实上,组织有多种功能,创造和传播财富、权力和美。然而,企业参与者根据他们的心态或分配给他们的角色,只认为其中一种功能是主要的。这种谬论导致手术成功,但病人却死了。
Furthermore, an investor might consider a car company a money-making machine, while union leaders see it as job-producing system. For an entrepreneur, the organization may present a lifetime challenge to create a winning system; however, for a professional corporate citizen it might be the platform for an internal power game. Indeed, organizations have multiple functions, generating and disseminating wealth, power, and beauty. Still, corporate actors, depending on their mindsets or the roles assigned to them, consider only one of these functions as primary. This is the fallacy that results in successful operations but dead patients.
前面我们提出,系统的结构决定了系统的组成部分及其相互关系,结构的多元性意味着系统的组成部分及其相互关系的多元性和可变性。
Earlier, we proposed that the system's structure defines the components and their relationships. Plurality of the structure, therefore, means that the components and the relationships among them are multiple and variable.
以盐(NaCl)为例。其成分——氯(Cl)和钠(Na)——在所有环境中都形成一种关系;因此,盐被认为具有单一结构。但碳氢化合物却并非如此。氢和碳会形成各种组合和关系,从而产生多种结构。碳与自身结合的能力催生了一个全新的进化分支(生物系统),创造了不稳定但稳定的结构。
Consider, for example, salt (NaCl). Its components — chlorine (Cl) and sodium (Na) — form a single type of relationship in all environments; therefore, salt is said to have a singular structure. But the same cannot be said about hydrocarbons. Hydrogen and carbon enter into various combinations and relationships, resulting in multiple structures. Carbon's ability to combine with itself gave rise to a whole new branch of evolution (the biological systems), creating unstable but steady-state structures.
人类也表现出类似的倾向。他们彼此之间形成了各种关系,形成了一种互动的结构或社会系统。群体中有目的的行为者之间的互动有多种形式。社会行为者可能同时在一对倾向上合作,在其他倾向上竞争,并在不同的倾向上发生冲突。此外,社会系统的成员会随着时间的推移而学习和成熟,因此是可变的,容易发生变化。结果是一个由具有多种关系的可变成员组成的互动网络,不断自我重建。这就是结构多元化的含义。
Human beings display a similar tendency. They form varying relationships with each other, creating an interactive type of structure, or a social system. Interactions between purposeful actors in a group take many forms. Social actors may cooperate on one pair of tendencies, compete over others, and be in conflict over different sets, all at the same time. In addition, members of a social system learn and mature over time and are therefore variable and subject to change. The result is an interactive network of variable members with multiple relationships, re-creating itself continuously. This is what is meant by the plurality of structure.
与功能不同,接受结构的多元性是一个困难的命题,因为它违背了结构作为持久事物的传统概念。然而,重新概念化这一传统概念对于理解目的性和多维性原则是必要的。
Acceptance of plurality of structure, unlike that of functions, is a difficult proposition, since it goes against the traditional concept of structure as something that endures. However, a reconceptualization of this traditional concept is necessary to appreciate the principle of purposefulness and multidimensionality.
经典因果关系原理认为相似的初始条件会产生相似的结果,因此不同的结果是由于不同的初始条件。因此,对于给定的结构,系统的行为是完全可预测的,其未来状态总是取决于其初始条件和支配其转变的规律(决定论)。
The classical principle of causality maintained that similar initial conditions produce similar results, and consequently that dissimilar results are due to dissimilar initial conditions. Therefore, for a given structure, behavior of the system is completely predictable and its future states invariably depend on its initial conditions and the laws that govern its transformation (determinism).
• 在多维方案中,程度上的差异就是种类上的差异。“高/高”关注代表与“低/高”关注不同的行为。每种模式对所涉及变量的含义都有自己独特的解释。
• In a multidimensional scheme, differences in degrees are differences in kind. A “high/high” concern represents a different behavior from a “low/high” concern. Each mode has its own distinct interpretation for the meaning of the variables involved.
• 我认为,自由、正义和安全是同一事物的三个方面。它们不应该被分开;孤立地看待它们总是有问题的。
• Freedom, justice, and security, in my belief, are three aspects of the same thing. They should not be separated; treating them in isolation has always been problematic.
我可以爱,但我的任何部分都不能爱。如果你把我分开,爱的现象就会消失。此外,爱不屈服于五种感觉中的任何一种。它没有颜色、声音或香气。它无法触摸或品尝。那么一个人如何衡量爱呢?当然,人们总是可以衡量爱的表现。“如果你爱我,为什么不打电话给我?”有人可能会说。
I can love, but none of my parts can love. If you take me apart, the phenomenon of love will be lost. Furthermore, love does not yield itself to any one of the five senses. It does not have a color, a sound, or an aroma. It cannot be touched or tasted. Then how does one measure love? Of course one may always measure the manifestation of love. “If you love me why don't you call me?” someone may say.
突现属性或 II 类属性是整体的属性,而不是部分的属性,并且不能从部分的属性中推导出来。然而,它们是相互作用的产物,而不是部分行为的总和,因此必须根据它们自己的术语来理解。此外,它们不屈服于五种感觉中的任何一种,也不能直接测量。如果需要测量,那么人们只能测量它们的表现形式。
Emergent, or type II, properties are the property of the whole, not the property of the parts, and cannot be deduced from properties of the parts. However, they are a product of the interactions, not a sum of the actions of the parts, and therefore have to be understood on their own terms. Furthermore, they do not yield to any one of the five senses and cannot be measured directly. If measurement is necessary, then one can measure only their manifestation.
因此,生命、爱情、幸福和成功不是一次性的命题;它们必须不断地重现。如果产生它们的过程终止,这些现象也将不复存在。它们甚至不能被储存或保存以备将来使用。当然,没有任何东西可以被视为理所当然。生命、爱情和幸福可能一时存在,下一刻就消失了。成功也是如此;它和爱情和幸福一样脆弱。
Therefore, life, love, happiness, and success are not one-time propositions; they have to be reproduced continuously. If the processes that generate them come to an end, the phenomena cease to exist as well. They cannot even be stored or saved for future use. And for sure, none can be taken for granted. Life, love, and happiness can be there one moment and gone the next. The same is true of success; it is just as vulnerable as love and happiness.
如果突现特性是持续过程的自发结果,那么要理解它们,就必须理解产生它们的过程。死亡是很自然的;活着才是奇迹。要让一个人活下去,需要数百个过程同时相互作用。那些试图将生命现象解释为单一事故的人并不知道自己在说什么。
If emergent properties are the spontaneous outcome of ongoing processes, then to understand them one has to understand the processes that generate them. Dying is very natural; staying alive is the miracle. It takes simultaneous interactions among hundreds of processes to keep someone alive. Those who try to explain the phenomenon of life as a single accident do not know what they are talking about.
如果成功是一种突发属性,那么它就必须是关于管理互动而不是行动。全明星队不一定是联盟中最好的球队,甚至可能输给同一联盟中的一支普通球队。一支获胜球队的特点不仅在于其球员的素质,还在于他们之间互动的质量。几年前,新奥尔良圣徒队在职业碗中有四名防守球员,但这并不意味着圣徒队拥有联盟中最好的防守。同年,达拉斯牛仔队赢得了超级碗,而没有任何防守球员进入职业碗。
If success is an emergent property, then it has to be about managing interactions rather than actions. An all-star team is not necessarily the best team in the league, and it might even lose to an average team in the same league. What characterizes a winning team is not only the quality of its players but also the quality of the interactions among them. A few years ago the New Orleans Saints football team had four defensive players in the Pro Bowl, but that did not mean the Saints had the best defense in the league. The same year, the Dallas Cowboys won the Super Bowl, without having any defensive players in the Pro Bowl.
各部分之间的兼容性及其相互加强的相互作用产生了一种共振,一种力量,这种力量将比各个部分产生的力的总和高出一个数量级。
The compatibility between the parts and their reinforcing mutual interactions creates a resonance, a force, which will be an order of magnitude higher than the sum of the forces generated by the separate parts.
另一方面,如果各部分不兼容,其产生的效果将小于整体所能产生的效果。同样,一个组织,根据其成员之间互动的性质,可以是一个增值系统,也可以是一个减值系统。
On the other hand, incompatibility among the parts will result in a less potent force than what the aggregate would have been able to produce. In the same way, an organization, depending on the nature of the interactions among its members, can be a value-adding or value-reducing system.
我曾在其他地方指出,组织的成功是产出、决策、学习与控制、成员资格和冲突管理这五个基本过程相互作用的产物。这些过程与财富、权力、知识、美和价值观的产生和传播相对应。
I have argued elsewhere that an organization's success is the product of the interactions among the five basic processes of throughput, decision making, learning and control, membership, and conflict management. These processes correspond with generating and disseminating wealth, power, knowledge, beauty, and values.
例如,要了解通用电气的成功,不能只看其收益和市场份额。在任何时候,人们都可能因为错误的原因而成功或失败。了解通用电气的组织流程(特别是决策、学习和测量系统)可能更好地解释其持续成功的原因。
For example, to understand the success of GE, one cannot simply look at its earnings and market shares. At any given time, one might win or lose for the wrong reasons. Understanding GE's organizational processes (specifically decision, learning, and measurement systems) may provide a better explanation for its continuous success.
我们说过,突发事件的性质无法直接测量;人们只能测量其表现形式。然而,测量现象的表现形式已被证明非常困难。
We have said that emergent properties cannot be measured directly; one can measure only their manifestations. However, measuring the manifestation of a phenomenon has proven very problematic.
例如,如果打电话的次数是衡量爱的标准,那么一个人可以假装爱。人们可以给别人打电话,但不一定爱他们。
For example, if the number of phone calls is the measure of love, then one can fake it. People can call people without necessarily loving them.
由于生物系统的大部分行为特征都属于 II 类特性,因此,近几十年来,伪造艺术一直是行为科学研究的重点。如何伪装成别人,一直是我们这个时代的赚钱问题。想想那些关于如何伪装成别人的书籍的巨大市场吧,这些书籍就许多主题提供建议,例如,如何在你完全不在乎别人的时候表现得像一个有爱心的人。还记得吗,只要戴一条红领带,你就可以假装自己很有权势?
Since most of the behavioral characteristics of living systems are type II properties, the art of faking has been the major preoccupation of behavioral sciences in recent decades. How one can pretend to be something that one is not has been the money-making question of our times. Consider the huge market for how-to books, which give advice on a multitude of topics such as how to come across as a caring person when one does not care at all. Remember when one could pretend to be powerful simply by wearing a red tie?
衡量一个组织的成功也并非易事。作为成功的体现,增长被视为衡量组织绩效的重要指标。如果一个组织成功,它很可能会增长;但是,如果一个组织正在增长,这并不一定意味着它成功。人们可以通过“假装”或糟糕的收购轻松实现增长。但不幸的是,两只火鸡不会变成一只老鹰。这正是许多组织成长后最终自我毁灭的原因。
Measuring the success of an organization has not been an easy proposition, either. As the manifestation of success, growth has been considered an important performance measure of an organization. If an organization is successful, most probably it will grow; however, if an organization is growing, this does not necessarily mean that it is successful. One can easily grow by “faking,” or making lousy acquisitions. But unfortunately, two turkeys will not make an eagle. And that is exactly how many organizations have grown, only to destroy themselves.
为了避免在衡量新兴属性时出现陷阱,我们必须衡量不止一种表现形式。在这种情况下,经济增加值 (EVA) 是衡量过去成功的更可靠指标,而不是简单的增长。
To avoid pitfalls in measuring an emergent property, one has to measure more than one manifestation. In this context, economic value added (EVA) is a much more reliable measure of past success than simple growth.
EVA 是基于成功的两个重要表现。它是增长和资本成本之上的价值创造的产物。正 EVA 表示增值增长,而负 EVA 表示减值增长。
EVA is based on two important manifestations of success. It is the product of both growth and value generation over and above the cost of capital. A positive EVA indicates a value-adding growth, while a negative EVA shows a value-reducing one.
最后,只有通过描绘特定系统当前行为中隐含的未来,才能评估现象的整体表现。要描绘未来,我们需要掌握社会动态。
Finally, manifestation of a phenomenon in its totality can be assessed only by picturing the future implicit in the present behavior of a given system. To map this future, we need a handle on social dynamics.
• 全明星队不一定是联盟中最好的球队,甚至可能输给同联盟中一支普通球队。一支获胜球队的特点不仅在于球员的质量,还在于球员之间的互动质量。
• An all-star team is not necessarily the best team in the league, and it might even lose to an average team in the same league. What characterizes a winning team is not only the quality of its players but also the quality of the interactions among them.
• 各部分之间的兼容性及其相互加强的相互作用产生了共振或力量,其数量级可能比各部分单独产生的力的总和高出一个数量级。
• The compatibility between the parts and their reinforcing mutual interactions creates a resonance, or force, which may be an order of magnitude higher than the sum of the forces generated by the parts separately.
• 突发特性是持续过程的自发结果。生命、爱情、幸福和成功不是一次性的命题;它们必须不断重现。如果产生它们的过程结束,这些现象也将不复存在。
• Emergent properties are the spontaneous outcome of ongoing processes. Life, love, happiness, and success are not one-time propositions; they have to be reproduced continuously. If the processes that generate them end, the phenomena will also cease to exist.
社会动态充满了违反直觉的行为。它的复杂程度超出了分析方法的范围。
Social dynamics is fraught with counterintuitive behavior. It stands on a level of complexity beyond the reach of analytical approach.
违反直觉的行为意味着,旨在产生预期结果的行为可能会产生相反的结果。有人说,通往地狱的道路是由善意铺就的。事情可能会先变得更糟,然后才变好,反之亦然。人们可能会因为错误的原因而获胜或失败。
Counterintuitive behavior means that actions intended to produce a desired outcome may generate opposite results. It has been said that the path to hell is paved with good intentions. Things can get worse before getting better, or vice versa. One can win or lose for the wrong reason.
禁止毒品虽然花费了国家一大笔钱,但其本意是为了遏制毒品滥用,拯救社会。然而与直觉相反的是,它却催生了数十亿美元的犯罪产业,增加了毒品消费,并让刑事司法系统不堪重负。
Making drugs illegal, while costing the nation a fortune, was meant to curb abuse and save the society from its ills. Counterintuitively, it has produced a multi-billion-dollar crime industry, higher consumption, and an overburdened criminal justice system.
要理解违反直觉行为的本质,人们需要理解以下断言的实际后果:
To appreciate the nature of counterintuitive behavior, one needs to understand the practical consequences of the following assertions:
• 因果关系可能在时间和空间上是分离的。在特定时间和地点发生的事件可能会产生延迟效应,在不同时间和地点产生影响。
• Cause and effect may be separated in time and space. An event happening at a given time and place may have a delayed effect, producing an impact at a different time and a different place.
• 因果可以互相替代,呈现循环关系。
• Cause and effect can replace one another, displaying circular relations.
• 一个事件可能会产生多重影响。其重要性顺序可能会随时间而改变。
• An event may have multiple effects. The order of importance may shift in time.
• 最初在产生结果中发挥关键作用的一组变量可能会在不同时间被另一组变量所取代。消除最初的原因并不一定会消除结果。
• A set of variables that initially played a key role in producing an effect may be replaced by a different set of variables at a different time. Removing the initial cause will not necessarily remove the effect.
扩大福利制度以减少社区贫困家庭的数量可能会适得其反,反而会增加贫困家庭的数量。改善福利通常需要额外的资源,这意味着增加税收。过度征税可能会迫使富人和许多企业迁出该地区,稀释税基并减少收入。
Expanding the welfare system to reduce the number of poor families in a community may, counterintuitively, increase their numbers. Improvement of welfare usually requires additional resources, which means an increase in taxes. Excessive taxation may push the wealthy and many businesses to move out of the region, diluting the tax base and reducing revenues.
所有这些意味着,要全面了解一项行动的短期和长期后果,就需要建立一个动态模型来模拟系统的多环、非线性特性。该模型应该捕捉关键的时间滞后和主要变量之间的相关相互作用。
All this means that understanding the short- and long-term consequences of an action, in its totality, requires building a dynamic model to simulate the multi-loop, nonlinear nature of the system. The model should capture the critical time lags and relevant interactions among major variables.
这种方法与传统方法截然不同,传统方法中,产生简单相关性的谬误是导致错误信息不断传播的原因。考虑到违反直觉的结果所造成的混乱程度,不难看出人们如何将其归因于宇宙的混乱性质。
This approach is distinctly different from the conventional one, where the fallacy of generating simple correlation is responsible for proliferating misinformation that is floated around continuously. Considering the level of confusion that exists around counterintuitive outcomes, it is not difficult to see how one might attribute them to the chaotic nature of the universe.
以下是我对混沌理论的相关和有趣观点的看法:
The following is my take on the relevant and interesting points of chaos theory:
• 分析非线性系统的行为就像走过一个迷宫,随着你每走一步,迷宫的墙壁都会重新排列(换句话说,玩游戏会改变游戏)。
• Analyzing the behavior of a nonlinear system is like walking through a maze whose walls rearrange themselves with each step you take (in other words, playing the game changes the game).
• 复杂性定律在各个层次尺度(标量、自相似性)中普遍适用,并且不受组成部分的具体行为的影响。
• Laws of complexity hold universally across hierarchical scales (scalar, self-similarity) and are not influenced by the detailed behavior of constituent parts.
• 我们不太可能通过研究部分的行为来解释复杂整体的行为;相反,我们更有可能通过研究整体的行为来解释部分的行为。
• We are less likely to be able to explain the behavior of a complex whole by studying the behavior of the parts; contrarily, we are more likely to be able to explain the behavior of the parts by studying the behavior of the whole.
四种吸引子决定了图案的性质:
Four kinds of attractors determine the nature of the patterns:
如果人们倾向于在社会背景下使用混沌术语,那么从系统角度来看,这四个吸引子可以解释如下。点吸引子代表社会生物追求其自然本能的行为——恐惧、爱、恨、分享欲望或自身利益。循环吸引子(辩证/自我维持)对应于我们的多维性原则,追求看似相反但互补的趋势:稳定与变化、安全与自由,以及一般而言的分化与整合。周期性或重点从一个方向周期性转移到另一个方向,是次优化的结果。环面吸引子(等效/负熵/目标寻求)体现了开放系统的行为。这些系统由它们应有的形象(DNA)引导,就像生物系统的生长模式一样。奇异吸引子(多目标/自组织/有目的的)反映了具有目的和手段选择的社会文化系统的行为;不可预测的模式源于有目的的演员的风格偏好。
If one is tempted to use chaos terminology in the social context, the four attractors, viewed from a systems perspective, can be explained as follows. The point attractors represent the behavior of social beings in pursuit of their natural instincts — fear, love, hate, desire to share, or self-interest. The cycle attractors (dialectic/self-maintaining) would correspond to our principle of multidimensionality, pursuit of seemingly opposite but complementary tendencies: stability and change, security and freedom, and, in general, differentiation and integration. Cyclicality, or periodic shift of emphasis from one orientation to another, is the result of suboptimization. Torus attractors (equifinal/neg-entropic/goal-seeking) exemplify the behavior of open systems. These systems are guided by the image (DNA) of what they ought to be, as growth patterns of biological systems. Strange attractors (multifinal/self-organizing/purposeful) reflect the behavior of sociocultural systems with choices of ends and means; unpredictable patterns emerge out of stylistic preferences of purposeful actors.
请注意,自组织并不总是有意识的行为。通常,它是默认发生的,或者通过偏差放大(进化)的随机迭代过程发生的。因此,如果自组织默认使用隐式文化代码发生,那么它更像是由环面吸引子产生的模式。然而,重新设计将是由奇异吸引子创建的自组织类型。
Note that self-organization is not always a conscious act. More often than not, it happens by default or through a random iterative process of deviation amplification (evolution). Therefore, self-organization, if it happens by default using implicit cultural codes, would be more like the patterns produced by a torus attractor. However, redesign would be the type of self-organization created by a strange attractor.
有了吸引子,迭代才有可能从混乱中产生秩序。大自然会自动创造迭代,但社会生物只有选择开始新的迭代才能回到零。从头开始设计就是这一要求的体现。
With attractors, it is the iteration that makes it possible for order to appear from chaos. Nature automatically creates the iteration, but social beings can return to zero only by choice to start a new iteration. Designing from a clean slate is a reflection of this imperative.
以下观察进一步证明了社会系统的违反直觉的行为:
Counterintuitive behavior of social systems is further exemplified by the following observations:
1. 社会系统表现出重复的趋势,并一遍又一遍地重现同一组非解决方案。
1. Social systems display a tendency to repeat themselves and reproduce the same set of non-solutions all over again.
永远不要高估变革的阻力。“传统智慧就像守旧派,宁死也不愿投降。”对熟悉事物的适应,加上对未知事物的恐惧,会形成一股强大的力量,甚至可能超越潜在的个人利益。人们可能会真正为一个美好的想法而兴奋,甚至全心全意地支持它。但随着这个想法越来越接近实施,不安全感和自我怀疑开始出现。支持这个想法的人可能会下意识地破坏自己的努力,阻止变革。随之而来的是病态行为,当负责清除障碍的人从中受益时就会产生这种行为。如果没有一位勇敢、有魅力、深受人民信任的领导人的支持,任何根本性变革的建议都会成为潜在的自我毁灭的主张。选择担任这一角色的傻瓜应该意识到自己最终会孤独。
One can never overestimate the resistance to change. “Conventional wisdom is like an old guard; it would rather die than surrender.” A comfort level with the familiar, combined with fear of the unknown, creates a formidable force that may even override potential self-interest. People may genuinely become excited by a beautiful idea and even support it wholeheartedly. But as the idea moves closer to implementation, insecurity and self-doubt set in. The supporters of the idea may then subconsciously sabotage their own efforts and prevent the change. Along with this comes pathological behavior, which is produced when those in charge of removing an obstruction benefit from it. Absent the support of a courageous, charismatic leader who enjoys the confidence of his/her people, any suggestions for a fundamental change become potentially self-destructive propositions. The fool who chooses to take on this role should be aware of his/her eventual loneliness.
2. 程度的差异可能变成种类的差异。
2. A difference in degree may become a difference in kind.
格罗夫用下面的例子来表明市场发生 10 倍变化所产生的影响,在我看来,它也揭示了市场经济违反直觉行为的本质。
The following episode, used by Grove to indicate the impact of a 10X change in the marketplace, demonstrates, in my opinion, the essence of market economies' counterintuitive behavior as well.
苹果联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯可以说是个人电脑行业的奠基天才。1985 年,他离开苹果,打造了“下一代”设计精良的硬件、比苹果 Macintosh 界面更出色的图形用户界面和比 Mac 先进得多的操作系统。该软件的构建方式是,客户可以通过重新排列现有软件的片段来定制适合自己用途的应用程序,而不必从头开始编写。他想创建一个独树一帜的计算系统。乔布斯不喜欢个人电脑。他认为个人电脑不够优雅,设计很差。讽刺的是,他是对的。他花了几年时间,但下一代计算机和操作系统基本上实现了所有目标。
Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple, is arguably the founding genius of the personal computing industry. He left Apple in 1985 to create the “Next” generation of superbly engineered hardware, a graphical user interface that was even better than Apple's Macintosh interface, and an operating system much more advanced than Mac. The software would be built in such a way that customers could tailor applications to their own uses by rearranging chunks of existing software rather than having to write it from the ground up. He wanted to create a computing system that would be in a class by itself. Jobs did not like PCs. He thought them inelegant and poorly engineered. The irony is that he was right. It took him a few years, but the Next computer and operating system delivered basically on all its objectives.
然而,就在乔布斯致力于打造他那台“超级棒的电脑”时,微软 Windows 已经面世。Windows 甚至不如 Mac,更不用说 Next 界面了,而且它无法与电脑或应用程序无缝集成。但它价格便宜,而且最重要的是,它可以在廉价的个人电脑上运行,到 20 世纪 80 年代末,全球数百家 PC 制造商都在生产廉价的个人电脑。
Yet while Jobs was working on his “insanely great computer,” Microsoft Windows had come on the market. Windows wasn't even as good as the Mac, let alone the Next interface, and it wasn't seamlessly integrated with computers or applications. But it was cheap and it worked, most importantly, on the inexpensive personal computers that by the late 1980s were available anywhere in the world from hundreds of PC manufacturers.
Grove,1996,第 59-60 页
Grove, 1996, pp. 59–60
Next 电脑虽然非常漂亮,但从未成功上市。尽管不断注入资金、拥有最先进的软件运营,并建造了一座全自动工厂来大量生产 Next 电脑,但乔布斯还是无法克服微软 Windows 和英特尔奔腾芯片组合(被形象地称为“WinTel”)所产生的广泛势头。具有讽刺意味的是,微软的成功归功于英特尔,而英特尔也归功于微软。默认情况下,两家公司都为对方创造了 10 倍的市场。
The Next machine, even with all its beauty, never took off. Despite an ongoing infusion of cash, a state-of-the-art software operation, and a fully automated factory built to produce a large volume of Next computers, Jobs could not overcome the widespread momentum generated by the combination of Microsoft Windows and Intel Pentium chips, known figuratively as “WinTel.” Ironically, Microsoft owes as much of its success to Intel as Intel owes to Microsoft. Each one, by default, created a 10X market for the other.
还值得注意的是,Next 机器及其操作系统现在已成为流行且非常成功的 Apple 电脑和 Apple X 操作系统的基础。
It is also worthy to note that the Next machine and its operating system is now the basis for the popular and very successful Apple computers and Apple X Operating System.
4. 被动适应日益恶化的环境是一条灾难之路。
4. Passive adaptation to a deteriorating environment is a road to disaster.
据说,如果突然把一只青蛙扔进沸水中,它会立即跳出来。但是,如果你把同一只青蛙放进逐渐加热的温水中,青蛙会毫无异议地被煮死。社会系统也是如此。如果适应的是恶化的环境,逐渐适应变化的环境的能力可能会导致灾难。道琼斯指数中只有一家原始公司参加了百年庆典,这表明即使在成功的组织中,死亡也比我们想象的更常见。事实上,逐渐死亡比突然死亡更常见。在所谓的“泛美综合症”中,组织通过适应难以察觉的逐渐变化而流血至死,总是为时已晚。具有讽刺意味的是,突然的阶段变化及其所有后果比难以察觉的逐渐变化危险性要小。面临突然变化的组织可能仍有足够的组织力量来应对。但在被动适应的情况下,当组织认识到问题的严重性时,可能已经失去了大部分力量,无力采取任何措施。
It's been said that if a frog is suddenly dropped into boiling water it will immediately jump out. However, if you put the same frog in warm water that is heated gradually, the frog will boil to death with no objection. The same is true of social systems. The capacity to adapt gradually to a changing environment can lead to a disaster if the adaptation is to a deteriorating environment. That only one of the original companies in the Dow Jones index participated in its centennial celebration is an indication that death, even among successful organizations, is more common than we like to believe. In fact, gradual deaths are more common than sudden deaths. In what is called the “Pan Am Syndrome,” organizations bleed to death by adapting to an imperceptible gradual change, always doing too little too late. Ironically, sudden change of phase with all of its ramifications is less dangerous than imperceptible, gradual change. An organization facing a sudden change may still have enough organizational strength left in it to cope. But in the case of passive adaptation, by the time an organization recognizes the severity of the problem, it may have already lost most of its strength and be unable to do anything about it.
• 玩游戏的成功会改变游戏规则,而玩旧游戏的顽固性会将成功转化为失败。
• Success in playing the game changes the game, and tenacity in playing the old game converts success to failure.
• 市场经济和民主一样,只会做出理性的选择。获胜者不一定是最好的,但最符合现有秩序。领先有时比落后更悲惨。
• Market economies, like democracies, make only rational choices. The winners are not necessarily the best, but those most compatible with the existing order. Being ahead of your time is sometimes more tragic than falling behind.
• 因果关系循环往复。事件有多重影响,每个影响都有不同的时间差,且各自独立存在。
• Cause and effect display circular relations. Events have multiple effects, each with a different time lag and independent life of its own.
• 消除原因并不一定能消除结果。
• Removing the cause will not necessarily remove the effect.
• 大自然的迭代、模式形成和从混乱中创造秩序的倾向创造了可预测性的期望。然而,由于机会和选择之间不同程度的相互作用以及系统的非线性,大自然似乎摆脱了可预测性的乏味。
• Nature's tendency for iteration, pattern formation, and creation of order out of chaos creates expectations of predictability. It seems, however, that nature, because of varying degrees of interaction between chance and choice, and the nonlinearity of systems, escapes the boredom of predictability.
第三章 社会文化体系
Chapter three. Sociocultural System
自组织或向预定秩序迈进是理解社会变革过程的关键。这是所有四种当代理论所共有的概念:量子理论、生命系统理论、混沌理论和系统理论。一个多世纪以来,科学唯一能解释这种令人惊叹的有组织的复杂性如何产生的理论就是自然选择。但在创造生物世界的过程中,选择总是作用于表现出自发秩序的系统。这种由选择进一步磨练的底层秩序的形成也需要解释。在初始秩序的形成过程中一定存在着自组织的自然倾向。活着就是为了认识。生活的过程就是认知的过程。反思意识涉及一定程度的认知抽象,包括形成心理图像的能力。这是对生命的新理解向社会领域的延伸。
Self-organization or movement toward a predefined order is the key for understanding the process of social change. This is a conception shared by all four contemporary theories: quantum theory, living systems theory, chaos theory, and systems theory. For more than a century, the only theory that science has offered to explain how this stunning organized complexity arose is natural selection. But in crafting the living world, selection has always acted on systems that exhibit spontaneous order. Formation of this underlying order further honed by selection needs to be explain as well. Natural tendency to self-organize must have been present in the formation of initial order. To live is to know. The process of living is a process of cognition. Reflective consciousness involves a level of cognitive abstraction that includes the ability to form mental images. This is the extension of a new understanding of life to social domain.
自组织,即朝着预定秩序前进,是描述社会文化系统本质的重要概念之一。这是所有四种当代理论所共有的概念:量子理论、生命系统理论、混沌理论和系统理论。
Self-organization, or the movement toward a predefined order, is one of the critical conceptions that describe the essence of sociocultural systems. This is a conception shared by all four contemporary theories: quantum theory, living systems theory, chaos theory, and systems theory.
混沌理论虽然名为混沌理论,但其认为趋向有序是一种自然现象,是由四种吸引子的作用产生的:点吸引子、循环吸引子、环面吸引子和奇异吸引子。混沌中存在着秩序,而混沌理论的目标是发现隐藏的秩序或负责创建混沌秩序的吸引子。
Despite its name, chaos theory considers the tendency toward order a natural phenomenon produced by the action of four types of attractors: point attractors, cycle attractors, torus attractors, and strange attractors. There is an order in chaos, and the objective of chaos theory is to discover the hidden order or the attractor responsible for creation of the chaotic order.
为了更好地理解这一概念的操作意义以及隐性文化代码在社会系统变革和动态过程中所发挥的关键作用,我们应该丰富对信息结合系统的本质特征和共享形象的基本功能的理解。
To appreciate the operational meaning of this conception and the critical role implicit cultural codes play in the process of change and dynamics of social systems, we ought to enrich our understanding of the essential characteristic of the information-bonded systems and the essential functions of shared image.
社会系统行为的许多方面都与成员的互动有关,而不是成员的个性。每个社会系统都表现出某些特征,即使所有成员都被替换,这些特征也可能保留下来。
Many things about the behavior of a social system refer to the interaction rather than the individuality of its members. Each social system manifests certain characteristics that it may retain even if all its individual members are replaced.
埃尔文·拉兹洛,1972 年
Ervin Lazlo, 1972
表征社会系统的要素不仅是其成员,而且是其成员彼此之间以及与整体之间的关系。这隐含在系统的定义中。如果要将总体视为系统,则必须假定要素之间存在某种联系。因此,重点不是关系的存在,而是关于关系性质的假设。这些关系反过来又取决于将系统组成部分连接在一起并保持在一起的纽带的性质。在这种情况下,机械系统中的纽带性质与社会文化系统中的纽带性质之间存在根本差异。
The elements that characterize a social system are not only its members, but also the relationship of its members to one another and to the whole. This is implicit in the definition of a system. Some kind of linkage between the elements is presupposed if the aggregate is to be considered a system. The point of emphasis, then, is not the existence of a relationship, but the assumptions regarding the nature of the relationship. These relationships in turn depend on the nature of the bonds that link and hold the components of the system together. In this context, there are fundamental differences between the nature of the bond in mechanical systems and those in sociocultural systems.
机械系统的元素是“能量结合的”,而社会文化系统的元素是“信息结合的”。在能量结合系统中,经典物理定律支配着元素之间存在的关系。各部分的整合是一次性的命题。将两块木板钉在一起,它们会一直保持这种状态,直到木头腐烂、钉子生锈或撬棍将它们分开。在机械系统中,零件必须具有被动和可预测的功能,直到某个零件损坏或施加足够强度的外力。但信息结合系统中主动部分的行为是不同的命题:将这些部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体是一场终生的斗争。想想维持婚姻、家庭或任何其他紧密联系的人类群体的挑战——每个人都有自己的想法——就会明白将成员整合到社会系统中的独特挑战。多思想社会文化系统的组织被认为是有目的的成员的自愿联合,其中的结合是通过二度协议(基于共同认知的协议)实现的。在一级协议中,参与者可能出于完全不同的原因同意采取某种行动。(伊朗左翼分子和伊斯兰主义者出于完全相反的原因同意推翻沙阿政权。)另一方面,二级协议要求就为什么问题达成一致。因此,在某些情况下,即使同意持不同意见,也可能被视为二级协议。
While the elements of mechanical systems are “energy-bonded,” those of sociocultural systems are “information-bonded.” In energy-bonded systems, laws of classical physics govern the relationship existing between the elements. Integration of the parts is a one-time proposition. Nail two boards together, and they stay that way until the wood rots, the nails rust, or a pry bar separates them. In mechanical systems passive and predictable functioning of parts is a must, until a part breaks down or an external force of sufficient strength is applied. But the behavior of active parts of an information-bonded system is a different proposition: integration of these parts into a cohesive whole is a lifetime struggle. Think about the challenges of maintaining a marriage, families, or any other close-knit group of human beings — each with a mind of his/her own — to appreciate the unique challenges of integrating the members in a social system. Organization of a multi-minded sociocultural system is considered a voluntary association of purposeful members in which the bonding is achieved by a second-degree agreement (an agreement based on a common perception). In first-degree agreements actors may agree on a course of action for completely different reasons. (The leftist and the Islamist in Iran agreed to topple the Shah's regime for completely opposite reasons.) Second-degree agreement, on the other hand, requires an agreement on the why question. Therefore, even agreeing to disagree, in certain situations, might be considered a second-degree agreement.
为了阐明信息结合系统的含义,我们需要更详细地研究文化和社会学习的概念。
To clarify the meaning of information-bonded systems, we need to examine the concepts of culture and social learning in more detail.
图像(本身就是一个美丽的设计)是环境和人类独特的创造过程共同产生的,它建立了人与环境之间的联系。它由一套关于时空因果现实性质的隐性假设系统组成,此外还包含价值观、美学和个人在环境中所扮演的角色的概念。
Coproduced by the environment and man's unique process of creativity, the image (itself a beautiful design) establishes a link between man and his environment. It consists of a system of implicit assumptions on the nature of spatio-temporal-causal realities, in addition to a concept of values, aesthetics, and one's perceived role in the environment.
尽管文化对于个人而言是先存的,但文化可以通过个人有目的的行为进行改变和再生产。发展的关键障碍和机遇就在这里——人们改变文化和重新创造他们想要的未来的集体能力和愿望。人类文化具有复杂性、模糊性和多种潜力,是变革过程的核心。这一变革过程只有在文化背景下才能理解,文化是文化的一部分,文化是文化的基础,文化是文化的反作用。这一过程根深蒂固,个人行为的成功总是取决于他们渗透和改变“共同形象”的程度。
Although culture pre-exists for individuals, it can be transformed and reproduced by their purposeful actions. It is here that the key obstacles and opportunities for development are found — the collective ability and desire of a people to transform their culture and re-create the future they want. Human culture with all its complexity, ambiguity, and manifold potentialities stands at the center of the process of change. This process of change cannot be understood except against the background of the culture of which it is a part, which it builds upon and reacts against. This process is so ingrained that the success of individual actions invariably depends on the degree to which they penetrate and modify the “shared image.”
文化的操作意义在于,文化充当默认决策系统。例如,如果你没有明确决定自己想成为哪种父母,文化就会替你做出决定。当人们反复使用默认值时,他们往往会忘记自己有选择权。相反,他们将这些价值观视为“现实”,从而破坏了这样一个事实:只要没有人愿意挑战它们,这些“现实”就会一直“存在”。问题在于,潜在假设的隐含性阻止了参与者质疑其有效性;因此,默认设置通常不受挑战,并变得过时。
Operational implications of culture lie in the fact that cultures act as default decision systems. For example, if you do not decide explicitly what kind of parent you want to be, the culture makes this decision for you. When people repeatedly use default values, they tend to forget that they have a choice. Instead, they treat such values as “realities out there,” undermining the fact that those “realities” will remain “out there” as long as no one is willing to challenge them. The problem is that the implicitness of the underlying assumptions prevents actors from questioning their validity; therefore, the defaults usually remain unchallenged and become obsolete.
文化的潜力和活力在于其应对不断涌现的欲望和理想的挑战的创造力。这一过程要求有意识地主动适应,而不是被动地接受事件。这是一场为创造新维度、欣赏新现实以及最终丰富共同形象而进行的斗争。这是一个学习过程,需要整个社会体系的动机、知识和理解的协调变化。
The potentiality and vitality of the culture lie in its creative ability to meet the challenges of continuously emerging desires and ideals. This process demands conscious and active adaptation, not a passive acceptance of events. It is a struggle for the creation of new dimensions, appreciation of new realities, and, finally, enrichment of the common image. It is a learning process that entails coordinated changes in motivation, knowledge, and understanding throughout the social system.
社会系统通过成员进行学习,成员通过绘制新现实并观察其行为的社会学习的实际或潜在结果来调整其世界观;然而,每个成员的学习总和是他们的集体、共享的学习。社会文化系统比其个体成员表现出更大的惰性和对变化的抵制。
Social systems learn through the members who adjust their worldviews by mapping new realities and observing the actual or potential results of their actions' social learning; however, the sum of each member's learning is their collective, shared learning. Sociocultural systems manifest greater inertia and resistance to change than their individual members.
当公众和私人形象充当过滤器,形成一种选择性接收模式时,文化的惰性就表现出来了。这个过程调整了特定信息的受体。那些与形象一致的信息会被吸收和强化,而那些与之矛盾和对抗的信息则不会产生显著的影响。这种现象虽然阻碍了变革,但却是一种防御机制和结构维护功能。从积极的一面来看,惰性有助于使文化具有弹性和可持续性。
The inertia of a culture is manifested when public and private images act as filters, developing a selective mode of reception. This process tunes the receptors for particular messages. Those consistent with the image are absorbed and reinforced, while contradictory and antagonistic ones have no significant effect. This phenomenon, although an impediment to change, acts as a defense mechanism and structure-maintaining function. Looking on the positive side, inertia helps to make cultures resilient and sustainable.
社会系统缺乏学习能力会导致其他重大困难。例如,随着系统变得越来越复杂,问题变得越来越深刻,科学与公众形象之间的脱节越来越严重,成为民主进程的困境,并仍然是其主要挑战。脱节发生在一个动态过程中,有多个分离阶段。一开始,由于真理通常与简单易懂联系在一起,因此人们不理解的东西就会被简单地视为错误的东西而拒绝接受。此外,科学的高度专业化使它远离了共同的形象,形成了一个小型的、孤立的亚文化。最终,一个无法传达其见解的科学亚文化的产生,削弱了科学在最需要的时候对广大公众行为的影响。
Failure of a social system to learn leads to other major difficulties. For instance, as systems become more sophisticated and problems become more profound, the increasing disconnection between science and the public image becomes the dilemma of the democratic process and remains its main challenge. The disconnection happens in a dynamic process with several stages of dissociation. At the outset, since truth is commonly identified with simplicity and comprehensibility, what one does not understand is simply rejected as false. Further, a high level of specialization in science moves it further away from the common image, creating a small, isolated subculture. Ultimately, creation of a scientific subculture that fails to communicate its insights reduces the influence of science on the behavior of the public at large at just the time when it may be needed most.
最近,我参与了一个社区发展项目,该项目旨在为所有利益相关者创造一个共同的愿景,我听到了以下说法:“普通人不理解这些花哨的概念。他们最好坚持他们理解的有形和熟悉的事物。”我的回答是“普通人之间的理解通常是发展过程的最终结果,而不是开始。如果普通人之间的理解成为引入“花哨”概念的先决条件,我向你保证,我们很快就会陷入平庸的最低水平。生活将继续设定和寻求可实现的目标,而这些目标很少会摆脱熟悉的界限。”
Recently involved with a community development project aimed at creating a shared vision of a desired future for all the stakeholders, I was confronted with the following statement: “Common people don't understand these fancy concepts. They would be better off sticking with tangible and familiar things they understand.” My answer was “Understanding among common people is usually the end result of a developmental process, not its beginning. If understanding among common people becomes a prerequisite for introducing a ‘fancy’ concept, I assure you that we will fast fall to the lowest level of banality. Life would proceed with setting and seeking attainable goals that would rarely escape the limits of the familiar.”
大多数发展过程中最大的障碍不是普通民众缺乏理解,而是所谓的专家缺乏共同理解。在普通民众中产生所需的理解水平总是比在专家中更容易,这不仅是因为他们没有自我意识问题,而且因为学习比忘记要简单得多。保护普通民众免受花哨概念影响的居高临下的神话现在已近乎蛊惑人心的艺术。
The greatest obstacle in most developmental processes is not so much a lack of understanding among common people as a lack of common understanding among the so-called experts. It has always been easier to generate required levels of understanding among common people than among experts, not only because they do not have an ego problem, but because learning is much simpler than unlearning. The patronizing myth of protecting common people from fancy concepts now borders on the art of demagoguery.
最后,社会制度成员害怕被排斥和强烈的趋同倾向也是社会变革的障碍。一个例子是一个禁酒县的经历,该县的选民将对禁酒令进行投票。投票前的调查显示,75% 的选民赞成废除禁令;然而,个别选民认为大多数人希望建立一个禁酒县。结果统计出来后,60% 的选民投票支持保持该县禁酒。毫不奇怪,在调查结果公布后,下一次投票中,65% 的多数人支持废除禁令。
Finally, fear of rejection and a strong tendency toward conformity among members of a social system are other obstructions to social change. An example is the experience of a dry county whose constituents were to vote on the alcohol ban. A pre-vote survey indicated that 75% of the voters favored abolishing the ban; however, the individual voters thought the majority wanted a dry county. When the results were tabulated, 60% of the voters had voted to keep the county dry. Not surprisingly, after the survey results were published, the next vote on the issue produced a 65% majority in favor of abolishing the ban.
回想一下,知识在社会系统中的作用类似于能量在物理系统中的作用。但与能量不同,知识不受“守恒定律”的约束。一个人不会因为与他人分享知识而失去知识;事实恰恰相反。学习和分享知识的能力使社会文化系统能够不断提高其更高层次的组织能力。这就是社会发展的意义所在。正是这种集体和共享的学习使社会能够通过相继在更高层次的秩序和复杂性上创造新的组织模式来重新设计自己。例如,在美国革命时期,十三个殖民地不再认为自己只是受英国控制的离散经济实体的集合或集合,而是开始认为自己是一个统一的成员群体,对他们共同的独立形象负责。统一和相互依存比殖民地地位具有更高的秩序和复杂性。
Recall that the role of knowledge in social systems is analogous to that of energy in physical systems. But unlike energy, knowledge is not subject to the “law of conservation.” One does not lose knowledge by sharing it with others; the opposite is true. The ability to learn and share knowledge enables sociocultural systems to continuously increase their capacity for higher levels of organization. This is what social development is all about. It is this collective and shared learning that enables societies to redesign themselves by successively creating new modes of organization at higher levels of order and complexity. For example, at the time of the American Revolution, the thirteen colonies ceased to think of themselves as simply an aggregate or collection of discrete economic entities beholden to England and began to think of themselves as a unified group of members accountable to their shared image of independence. Unification and interdependence are higher levels of order and complexity than colonial status.
创建新的组织模式需要文化转型。更具体地说,它需要改变组织原则的默认值。但挑战传统智慧是一个痛苦的过程。它要求质疑神圣的假设,并发展一种集体能力,将相关变量重新概念化为具有新特征的新整体。这是一个二阶学习过程,必须将其与一阶学习区分开来,在一阶学习中,决定替代方案选择的基本假设仍然没有受到挑战。另一方面,二阶学习涉及挑战假设。它代表了一种定性变化,可以确定一组新的替代方案和目标。二阶学习重新定义了一阶学习的规则,并为社会文化系统的有序转型和发展提供了条件。商业传说中充斥着质疑假设如何带来创新和改变游戏规则的新行业的故事。弗雷德·史密斯质疑了关于如何投递邮件和包裹的默认假设,并创建了联邦快递。西南航空公司挑战了如何经营航空公司的隐性规则。在线学习挑战了传统学校教育受时间和空间限制的规则。
Creating a new mode of organization involves a cultural transformation. More specifically, it requires changing the default values of the organizing principles. But challenging the conventional wisdom is a painful process. It demands questioning the sacred assumptions and developing a collective ability to reconceptualize the relevant variables into a new ensemble with a new characterization of its own. This is a learning process of the second order, which must be distinguished from first-order learning where the underlying assumptions governing the selection of alternatives remain unchallenged. Second-order learning, on the other hand, involves challenging the assumptions. It represents a qualitative change that identifies a new set of alternatives and objectives. Second-order learning redefines the rules for first-order learning and provides for orderly transformation and development of sociocultural systems. Business lore is rife with stories of how questioning assumptions has led to innovation and game-changing new industries. Fred Smith questioned the default assumptions about how to deliver mail and packages and created Federal Express. Southwest Airlines challenged the implicit rules of how to run an airline. Online learning challenges the time- and space-bound rules of traditional schooling.
再次强调我们之前的断言,文化最重要的功能或许是充当生成预定义秩序的蓝图。此功能类似于计算机的操作系统。没有操作系统,计算机只是一个无用的盒子。没有可行且充满活力的文化,社会系统注定会失败。作为生命系统,社会文化系统必须拥有其应有的形象。这对于能够不断重新定位系统以更接近其预定义秩序是必要的。它们不仅朝着预定义秩序前进,而且还小心翼翼地守护着自己的个性。除非改变其存储的形象,否则社会系统几乎会无限期地自我复制。
To re-emphasize our previous assertion, perhaps the most significant function of the culture is serving as the blueprint for production of a predefined order. This function is similar to the operating system of a computer. Without an operating system a computer is simply a useless box. Without a viable and dynamic culture a social system is doomed. As living systems, sociocultural systems must possess an image of what they ought to be. This is necessary to be able to continuously reposition the systems to move closer to their predefined order. They not only move toward a predefined order, but also jealously guard their individualities. Unless their stored image is altered, social systems go on to replicate themselves almost indefinitely.
因此,共享形象是变革过程的核心。任何行动的成功都取决于它渗透和改变“共享形象”的程度。这就是为什么试图实现社会变革会充满挫折的原因。尽管变革推动者齐心协力,但旧的行为模式仍然胜利地复苏,这是不断令人沮丧的根源。似乎让这种顽固的叛乱如此势不可挡的事实是,一套组织原则(文化准则)使系统成为现在的样子并按照它的方式运作,这些原则是隐含的,而且往往被认为是神圣的。
The shared image, therefore, stands at the center of the process of change. The success of any action invariably depends on the degree to which it penetrates and modifies the “shared image.” That is why trying to effect social transformation is fraught with frustration. The triumphant resurgence of old patterns of behavior despite the concerted efforts of change agents is an uninterrupted source of frustration. What seems to make this stubborn insurgency so overpowering is the fact that a set of organizing principles (cultural codes) that make the system what it is and behave the way it does are implicit, and more often than not are considered to be sacred.
负责重建现有秩序的隐性文化代码子集就是我们比喻的“二阶机器”。二阶机器相当于混沌理论中的吸引子概念。要改变社会系统的行为模式,就需要挑战其基本假设。必须产生一组新的替代方案,并修改正在起作用的吸引子。那么,变化是如何进入社会系统的呢?
The subset of implicit cultural codes responsible for regenerating the existing order is what we metaphorically refer to as the “second-order-machine.” The second-order-machine is equivalent to the notion of an attractor in chaos theory. To produce a change in the behavioral pattern of a social system, its underlying assumptions need to be challenged. A new set of alternatives must be generated and the attractor in action must be modified. How, then, does change enter a social system?
据说,我们最关键的生存能力只能通过社会学习获得;这种社会学习能力——文化——有两个维度:
It has been said that our most critical survival ability can only be learned socially; this socially learned ability — culture — has two dimensions:
自组织、有目的的社会文化系统必须自我进化才能生存。它们不能被动地适应环境,而应该与环境共同进化。它们应该能够随着时间的流逝而改变互动规则。
Self-organizing, purposeful, sociocultural systems must be self-evolving to be viable. They cannot passively adapt to their environments but should co-evolve with them. They should be able to change the rules of interaction as they evolve over time.
要想生存下去,文化必须能够积极适应新兴现实。积极适应是一个二阶的反复学习过程,需要自由质疑神圣的假设。不幸的是,社会文化系统发展的主要障碍就在这里。许多传统社会的成员缺乏质疑任何神圣文化准则的自由。相反,大多数人受到传统势力的极大恐吓。在这样的制度下,质疑神圣习俗往往被视为侮辱,可判处死刑。但能够质疑神圣的假设而不必担心遭到报复,不仅是个人权利,也是必须不惜一切代价维护的必要社会利益。有时,恐吓力量对发展构成了巨大的阻碍,不惜一切代价将其消除可能是合理的。事实确实如此,即使是外部力量的悲剧性干预,如果导致根深蒂固的恐吓力量瓦解,也可能成为强大文化进化的转折点(日本和土耳其为这一论点提供了令人警醒的例子)。
To be viable, a culture must be capable of actively adapting to emerging realities. Active adaptation is an iterative learning process of the second order that demands freedom to question the sacred assumptions. Unfortunately, it is here that major obstructions for development of sociocultural systems are found. Members of many traditional societies lack the freedom to question any one of their sacred cultural codes. Instead, most are subject to enormous intimidation by traditional forces. Questioning a sacred practice is often treated as an insult and is punishable by death in such systems. But the ability to question sacred assumptions, without fear of repercussion, is not only an individual right but also a necessary social good that must be preserved at any price. Sometimes intimidating forces present such a monumental obstruction to development that paying any price to remove them might be justified. This is so true that even the tragic intervention of outside power, if it results in dissolving the entrenched intimidating forces, may prove to be a tipping point for potent cultural evolution (Japan and Turkey provide sobering examples for this argument).
另一方面,混乱秩序代表着一种看似稳定但却受挫的社会系统,可能会经历突然的、意想不到的变化。这种现象是由于小的干扰反馈到自身并产生巨大影响而产生的。任何系统的干扰在首次出现时都会受到抵制,但如果它经受住了第一次压制并与系统内预先存在的挫折产生共鸣,偏差放大的迭代过程就会开始。这就是一群受仇恨驱使、由家长式/魅力型领导人领导的受挫群众如何在欠发达的社会系统结构中产生惊人的变化。不幸的是,如果没有形成对理想未来的全面共同形象,混乱的斗争可能无法产生向自我进化、有目的的社会文化系统的转变。已经超越家长式文化安全网络的高度发达的社会文化系统的现实与仍然受困于这种文化局限的现实有着根本的不同。除非家长式的文化准则得到适当的挑战和修改,否则独裁统治者和疏远人民的重复模式将继续出现。(伊朗革命和苏联解体是最近的轶事证据。)
On the other hand, chaotic orders, representing a form of seemingly stable but frustrated social systems, may experience a sudden, unexpected change. This phenomenon is produced when a small disturbance is fed back on itself to create a monumental impact. Disturbance to any system will be resisted when it first appears, but if it survives the first attempts at suppression and resonates with pre-existing frustrations within the system, an iterative process of deviation amplification begins. This is how a frustrated mass motivated by hatred and led by paternalistic/charismatic leaders can produce a phenomenal change in the structure of a less developed social system. Unfortunately, without the formation of a comprehensive shared image of a desired future, chaotic struggles may not produce transformation to a self-evolving, purposeful, sociocultural system. The reality of highly developed sociocultural systems that have outgrown the secure web of a paternalistic culture is fundamentally different from those that are still trapped within the confines of this type of culture. Unless paternalistic cultural codes are properly challenged and modified, the repeated pattern of authoritarian ruler and alienated people will continue to emerge. (The Iranian Revolution and the collapse of the Soviet Union are most recent anecdotal evidence.)
哈贝马斯认为,只要人们能够克服过去因意识形态扭曲而产生的限制,就会实现解放。
Emancipation, according to Habermas, takes place whenever people are able to overcome past restrictions that resulted from ideological distortions.
不幸的是,任何形式或类型的意识形态都被证明是社会制度生存的重大障碍。所有意识形态的重要和共同特征是宣称拥有一套预先确定的目的和手段的终极真理。真正的信徒不会质疑潜在的假设。这与二阶学习是不相容的,二阶学习需要质疑神圣的假设并挑战隐含的默认价值观。
Unfortunately, ideologies in any form or type have proved to be major obstructions to the viability of a social system. The significant and common characteristic of all ideologies is a claim for ultimate truth with a predefined set of ends and means. Underlying assumptions are not to be questioned by true believers. This is incompatible with second-order learning, which requires questioning sacred assumptions and challenging implicit sets of default values.
不幸的是,我们这个时代的许多代人都绝望地目睹了相互竞争的意识形态如何摧毁了数百万人的生计,破坏了如此多充满活力的社会的生存能力。作为回应,两位当代社会科学家发表了以下具有挑衅性的言论,强调了我们对意识形态威胁性的关注程度。
Unfortunately, many generations of our time have witnessed with despair how competing ideologies destroyed millions of livelihoods and have undermined the viability of so many vibrant societies. In response the following provocative statements by two contemporary social scientists underline the level of our preoccupation with the menacing nature of ideologies.
毋庸置疑,从单一的意识形态角度来预测复杂社会系统的反直觉行为是一种过于简单化的做法。根据 Kenneth Boulding (1981, p. 18) 的说法:
Needless to say, predicting counterintuitive behavior of complex social systems from a single ideological perspective is an oversimplification. According to Kenneth Boulding (1981, p. 18):
社会动态的系统观不利于任何试图用单一因素来解释人类历史的一元论观点,无论是像[古典]马克思主义那样的唯物主义解释,还是像圣经犹太教那样的简单有神论解释,还是像某种简单谴责那样的末世论解释。简单的革命言论也必须被视为人类和社会进化过程中一个本质上次要的因素,尽管在特定情况下,它有时作为特殊情况很重要。
The systemic vision of social dynamics is unfriendly to any monistic view of human history that seeks to explain it by a single factor, whether this is a materialistic interpretation as in the case of [classical] Marxism, a simple theistic interpretation, as in biblical Judaism, or an eschatological interpretation in terms of some simple denouncement. The simple rhetoric of revolution also must be regarded as an essentially minor element in the ongoing process of human and societal evolution, although it is sometimes important as a special case under particular circumstances.
• “我们所知道的一些事情并非来自于我们自己所学到的知识,而是来自于我们所能接触到的人类物种领域所积累的知识。”
• “Some of what we know how to do comes not from our own acquired learning, but from knowledge that has been accumulated in the human species field to which we have access.”
• “整个物种种群能够改变其行为,是因为它们所处领域的内容发生了变化,而不是因为它们单独花时间学习了新的行为。”
• “Whole populations of species can shift their behavior because the content of their field has changed, not because they individually have taken the time to learn new behavior.”
第四章 发展
Chapter four. Development
对主要传统发展观点的批判性回顾表明,它们通常具有以下特点:(1)民族中心主义,(2)单维性,和(3)确定性视角。
A critical review of major traditional views of development suggests that they are generally characterized by problems of (1) ethnocentrism, (2) unidimensionality, and (3) deterministic perspective.
首先,大多数发展理论都带有民族中心主义偏见。作为发达社会的理想类型,这些模式带有明显的西方历史经验的痕迹。此外,发展理论被分裂为相互竞争的学科观点,导致发展观单一化。每个学科都倾向于将其他变量排除在自己独特的分析领域之外——经济学中的物质数量、政治学中的权力和社会学中的秩序。
In the first place, most developmental theories have built-in ethnocentric biases. The models, as ideal types of developed societies, bear unmistakable signs of the western historical experience. Furthermore, the fragmentation of developmental theory into competing disciplinary perspectives results in a unidimensional view of development. Each discipline tends to exclude the other variables from its own unique domain of analysis — material quantities in economics, power in political science, and order in sociology.
或许最严重的问题在于,大多数发展理论都以预先设想的社会转型规律为出发点,认为其在任何时候、任何环境下都是正确的,其发展路径是预先规划好的。
Perhaps the most serious problem lies in the fact that most developmental theories begin with a preconceived law of social transformation. Assumed to be true at all times and in all environments, the path is charted beforehand.
发展在世界系统观中发挥着核心作用,因此,澄清对发展本质及其通常认定的属性的任何误解十分重要。
Development plays a central role in the systems view of the world, therefore, it is important to clarify any misconceptions that exist about the nature of development and the properties usually identified with it.
尽管把各种发展理论混为一谈是有风险的,但从实际目的来看,我们需要某种分类方案。然而,它们之间存在着重要的差异和一些显著的连续性。此外,这些理论并不一定相互驳斥。在大多数情况下,它们要么相互补充,要么相互取代。
Although it is risky to lump developmental theories together, for practical purposes we need some kind of classification scheme. Still, important differences and some significant continuity exist among them. Further, these theories do not necessarily refute each other. In most cases, they either complement or supersede one another.
请注意,第 1 类理论(功能、结构和过程的单一性)是描述性的,不涉及任何干预手段。其他类别通过至少在一个维度上假设多元性,提供了一些干预手段。第 8 类(有目的的系统,代表发展的系统观)假设功能、结构和过程这三个维度都是多元的。因此,第 8 类理论是一种包容性理论。它提供了一个框架来解释其他七个类别作为特殊情况。以下方案总结了每种类型的假设和主要特征及其对发展的看法。
Note that the theories in category 1 (singularity of function, structure, and process) are descriptive and do not deal with any means of intervention. Other categories, by assuming plurality in at least one dimension, provide for some means of intervention. Category 8 (purposeful systems, representing the systems view of development) assumes plurality in all three dimensions: function, structure, and process. Therefore, category 8 is an inclusive theory. It provides a framework to explain the other seven categories as special cases. The following scheme summarizes the assumptions and the main features of each type and their perspectives on development.
根据特定文化的特征,社会系统可以从混乱的简单状态转向有组织的简单状态,这是通过强调整合而牺牲分化而产生的。它也可以转向混乱的复杂性,这是通过增加分化而牺牲整合而产生的;或者它可以转向有组织的复杂性,这意味着通过同时走向复杂性和秩序而实现更高的组织水平。这意味着,对于每一个分化水平,都存在一个最低的整合水平,低于这个水平,系统就会瓦解为混乱。相反,更高的整合水平需要更高的分化程度,以避免无能为力。
Depending on the characteristics of a given culture, a social system can move from a state of chaotic simplicity toward organized simplicity, which is produced by emphasizing integration at the cost of differentiation. It can also move toward chaotic complexity produced by increased differentiation at the cost of integration or it can move toward organized complexity, signifying a higher level of organization achieved by a movement toward complexity and order concurrently. This means that for every level of differentiation there exists a minimum level of integration below which the system would disintegrate into chaos. Conversely, higher levels of integration require higher degrees of differentiation to avoid impotency.
在灵活的社会环境中,文化界限内会发生低幅度的波动,不会造成任何干扰,英国工党和保守党之间、美国民主党和共和党之间的周期性更替就是明证。然而,如果一种倾向试图跨越文化界限,强烈的反作用力就会将其推回到另一个极端,产生进一步的波动,并进入阶段性变化的临界点。不幸的是,在对立而僵化的意识形态两极分化的社会中,社会转型是通过剧烈的阶段性变化(临界点)来实现的。从这种情况中恢复过来往往非常困难,因为成员之间的关系会受到不可挽回的破坏,就像在陷入长期混乱状态的社会中一样。
In a flexible social setting, oscillations of low amplitude occur within the cultural boundaries without disruption, as demonstrated by periodic shifts of government between the Labor and Conservative parties in the United Kingdom or the Democrats and Republicans in the United States. However, if an orientation tries to cross the limits of the cultural line, a powerful reaction will move it back to the other extreme, producing further oscillations and cusping into a change of phase. Unfortunately, in societies polarized by antagonistic and rigid ideologies, social transformation takes place by a violent change of phase (a cusp). Retrieval from such a situation is often extremely problematic, since the relationship between members is irreparably damaged, as happens in societies that are thrown into a perpetual state of civil disorder.
社会系统的发展是向连续组织模式的转变。每种模式都是一个整体,其特点是整合度和分化度都更高,并且有可能通过将低级矛盾转化为对立面来化解它们。与物理系统(其能量水平决定其组织模式)不同,在社会系统中,知识水平决定了组织模式。因此,可以说知识在社会系统中的作用类似于能量在物理系统中的作用。重要的是,知识与能量不同,不受热力学第一定律(能量守恒定律)的约束。与他人分享知识并不会失去知识。相反,知识的传播提高了社会系统的知识水平,并有助于创造新知识。正是这种能力使社会系统能够自行不断重建其结构并重新定义其功能。
Development of social systems is a transformation into successive modes of organization. Each mode is a whole, characterized by higher degrees of both integration and differentiation, and is potentially capable of dissolving lower level contradictions by converting them into contraries. In contrast to physical systems whose energy level determines their mode of organization, in social systems the knowledge level defines the mode. The role of knowledge in social systems, therefore, can be said to be analogous to that of energy in physical systems. The significant point is that knowledge, unlike energy, is not subject to the first law of thermodynamics (the law of conservation of energy). One does not lose knowledge by sharing it with others. On the contrary, its dissemination increases the knowledge level of the social system and helps the creation of new knowledge. It is this capability that enables a social system of its own accord to constantly re-create its structure and redefine its functions.
不幸的是,对于某些宗教,原教旨主义的解释认为创造是上帝的唯一特权。人类不允许从事任何创造行为。几乎任何形式的艺术——无论是绘画、雕塑、音乐还是戏剧——都是被禁止的。娱乐(享受)也被认为是有罪的。这种对美学的敌对态度不利于发展,因为它没有提供太多机会来表达和拓展一个人的视野,超越单纯生存的直接需求。这种自我限制为尽管拥有大量资源却仍然欠发达的情况提供了一种解释。
Unfortunately, for some religions, the fundamentalist interpretation regards creation as a sole prerogative of God. Human beings are not allowed to engage in any act of creation. Art in almost any form — whether painting, sculpture, music, or drama — is prohibited. Recreation (enjoyment) is also considered sinful. This antagonistic attitude toward aesthetics militates against development, because it does not provide much opportunity to articulate and expand one's horizon beyond the immediate needs of mere existence. This self-limitation provides one explanation for cases of underdevelopment despite the availability of vast resources.
对现状的不满虽然是变革的必要条件,但并不足以确保发展。同样必要的是相信自己能够部分控制事件的发展。那些对环境感到敬畏并将塑造未来的力量置于自身之外的人,无论他们多么痛苦和沮丧,都不会考虑自愿或有意识的改变。
Dissatisfaction with the present, although a necessary condition for change, is not sufficient to ensure development. What seems to be necessary as well is a faith in one's ability to partly control the march of events. Those who are awed by their environment and place the shaping forces of their future outside of themselves do not think of voluntary or conscious change, no matter how miserable and frustrated they are.
发展这一概念的核心是其与增长的区别。根据阿科夫的说法:
Central to this notion of development is its distinction from growth. According to Ackoff:
它们不是一回事,甚至不一定有关联。发展与否都可以促进增长,发展与否都可以促进增长。墓地可以发展而无发展。另一方面,一个人在停止成长之后很长一段时间内仍可以继续发展,反之亦然。一个人拥有好的工具和材料,可以比没有这些工具和材料建造更好的房子。另一方面,与拥有相同资源的欠发达人相比,发达的人用他拥有的任何工具和材料都可以建造更好的房子。换句话说:资源有限的发达人比拥有无限资源的欠发达人更能改善自己和他人的生活质量。系统增长的制约因素主要存在于其环境中,但系统发展的主要制约因素存在于系统本身。
They are not the same thing and are not even necessarily associated. Growth can take place with or without development, and development can take place with or without growth. A cemetery can grow without developing. On the other hand, a person may continue to develop long after he or she has stopped growing, and vice versa. A person can build a better house with good tools and materials than he/she can without them. On the other hand, a developed person can build a better house with whatever tools and materials he/she has than a less-developed person with the same resources. Put another way: a developed person with limited resources is likely to be able to improve his quality of life and that of others more than a less-developed person with unlimited resources. Constraints on a system's growth are found primarily in its environment, but the principal constraints on a system's development are found within the system itself.
加拉杰达吉和阿科夫 (1984)
Gharajedaghi and Ackoff (1984)
要理解社会系统的发展过程,我们必须处理有助于或限制集体欲望和追求其目标的能力的结构和过程。共同产生未来的参数存在于社会系统的五个维度的相互作用中:财富、知识、美、权力和价值观。这五个维度之间的兼容性决定了新兴组织模式的有效性。这种组织模式决定了整合程度,以及成员创造他们想要的未来的集体能力。这意味着,如果个人的集合要作为一个有效的系统发挥作用,就需要最低程度的整合。具有讽刺意味的是,每种组织理论的主要关注点都是定义将整体划分为部分的标准。主要理论都隐含地假设整体不过是其各部分的总和,并且故意忽略了这样一个事实,即有效的差异化需要纳入一种将差异化的部分整合成一个有凝聚力的整体的手段。在这方面,古典管理学派完全依赖于指挥的统一性和不偏离的必要性。相反,自由市场的倡导者则依赖这样的假设:完全理性的微观决策会自动产生完全理性的宏观条件。这两种方法都存在缺陷,因为它们没有认识到有效的社会融合需要不断积极地重建成员之间的兼容性。最终,一个组织将实现的融合和发展水平取决于它处理成员之间互动的方式。
To understand the process of development of a social system we have to deal with structures and the processes that help or limit the creation of collective desire and ability for the pursuit of its ends. The parameters that coproduce the futures are found in the interaction of the five dimensions of social systems: wealth, knowledge, beauty, power, and values. Compatibility among these five dimensions defines the effectiveness of the emerging mode of organization. This mode of organization determines the level of integration, and the collective ability of the members to create the future they want. This means that a minimum level of integration is required if the aggregate of individuals is to function as an effective system. Ironically, the prime concern of every organization theory has been to define the criteria by which the whole is to be divided into parts. Major theories have implicitly assumed that the whole is nothing but the sum of its parts and have conveniently ignored the fact that effective differentiation requires incorporation of a means that would integrate the differentiated parts into a cohesive whole. In this regard, the classical school of management depends solely on the unity of command and the imperative of no deviation. At the opposite end, advocates of free markets rely on the assumption that perfectly rational micro-decisions would automatically produce perfectly rational macro-conditions. Both approaches fall short because they fail to recognize that effective social integration requires that compatibility among the members be continuously and actively re-created. Ultimately, the level of integration and development that an organization will achieve depends on the means by which it deals with interaction among its members.
理想状态下的社会制度是由有目的的成员自愿组成的联合体,因此成员离开该制度被认为是其抗议的最高表现。但由于一系列自我强加或外部限制,不满的成员无法离开该制度。因此,他/她与他/她本应自愿加入的制度格格不入。
A social system in its ideal form is a voluntary association of purposeful members, so that emigration of a member from the system is considered to be the highest manifestation of his/her protest. But because of a series of self-imposed or external constraints, a dissatisfied member is not able to leave the system. He/she therefore becomes alienated from the very system of which he/she is supposed to be a voluntary member.
疏远的根本原因可以在以下主要障碍的相互作用中找到。
The underlying causes of alienation can be found in the interactions of the following primary obstructions.
在最近的一项研究中,我的一组研究生发现,年轻的非裔美国人陷入了两难境地。要想被社区和同龄人接受为成员,他们必须证明自己不玩白人的游戏。但“不玩游戏”或偏离常态的代价是巨大的。它通常会受到严厉和不成比例的惩罚,以弥补它对社会造成的伤害。不幸的是,科林·鲍威尔、康多莉扎·赖斯、奥普拉·温弗瑞、比尔·科斯比和许多成功人士似乎并不是年轻非裔美国人的榜样。他们被指控玩白人的游戏,甚至可能不被视为黑人社区的真正成员。这种不幸的二级阻碍导致了恶性循环,破坏了原本才华横溢的黑人社区的发展。理解这种冲突可以帮助我们理解为什么一个拥有所有明显成功和受欢迎程度的杰出篮球运动员有时必须给人留下“坏男孩”的印象,以保持他在自己社区的成员身份。
In a recent study a group of my graduate students observed that young African Americans are caught in an impossible dilemma. To be accepted by their community and peers as a member they have to demonstrate that they are not playing the white man's game. But “not playing the game” or deviation from the norm has a huge price tag. It is usually punished harshly and disproportionally to the degree of the harm it has caused the society. Unfortunately, the likes of Colin Powel, Condoleezza Rice, Oprah Winfrey, Bill Cosby, and many success stories do not seem to be the role models for the young African Americans. Accused of playing the white man's game, they might not even be considered true members of the black community. This unfortunate second-order obstruction has resulted in a vicious circle that undermines development of otherwise talented black communities. Appreciating this conflict can help us understand why a phenomenal basketball player with all the apparent success and popularity sometimes has to come across as a “bad boy” to keep his membership in his own community as well.
围绕着相互冲突的意识形态而形成的高度两极化的群体也许是阻碍发展的最具破坏性的障碍之一。两极化通常表现为宗教与世俗倾向,而两者又进一步分为左派和右派。种族冲突和政客的“分而治之”策略进一步加剧了这种两极化。在争夺名誉和权力的过程中,自私自利、玩世不恭的知识分子利用煽动性言论操纵群众——像钟摆一样将他们从一个极端拉向另一个极端。问题是,没有一个所谓的对立群体足够强大,可以在没有其他群体合作的情况下进行治理,但每个群体都足够强大,可以破坏和削弱统治集团的效力。这在一定程度上是由于系统复杂性的增加,一方面使其更容易受到破坏,另一方面使其更难管理。对统治集团的仇恨通常会成为变革的统一推动力。另一个循环始于对立力量的重组。除非对立的意识形态学会修改各自的教条立场、放弃对权力的垄断,并通过融合进程(不是以牺牲差异为代价,而是与差异并行),创造对理想未来的共同形象,否则这种摇摆将不会结束。
The formation of highly polarized groups around conflicting ideologies is perhaps one of the most destructive obstructions to development. Polarization usually takes the form of religious versus secular tendencies with each further divided into left and right orientations. This polarization is further reinforced by ethnic conflicts and “divide and rule” strategies of politicians. In their struggle for fame and power, self-serving and cynical intellectuals manipulate the masses with demagoguery — pulling them from one extreme to the other like a pendulum. The problem is that none of the so-called opposing groups is strong enough to govern without the cooperation of the others, and yet each one is powerful enough to disrupt and undermine the effectiveness of the ruling group. This is partly due to increased complexity in the system, making it more vulnerable to sabotage on the one hand and difficult to manage on the other. Hatred of the ruling group usually becomes the unifying agent of change. Another cycle begins with opposing forces regrouping. The oscillation will not end until opposing ideologies learn to modify their dogmatic positions, give up their monopolistic claim on power, and work toward creating a shared image of a desired future through processes of integration — not at the expense of differentiation, but alongside it.
质变的关键问题和更有效地处理社会病态的需要要求将二阶学习纳入社会系统。这需要创造一种新的组织模式,即追求理想的系统,而不是理想状态。这值得进一步澄清。
The critical issues of qualitative change and the need to deal more effectively with social pathologies demand incorporation of second-order learning in social systems. This requires the creation of a new mode of organization in the form of an ideal-seeking system, in contrast to an ideal state. This warrants further clarification.
纵观历史,人们曾多次试图按照某种理想化的形象塑造人类社会。先知、哲学家、社会改革者以及近来不止一个国家的国家机构都曾这样做过。在所有情况下,这些理想都是由人类权威定义的,他们试图通过科学或上帝等终极权威来使其权威合法化。但将理想状态等同于终极权威会阻碍改变的自由。这就是社会病态的本质,在社会背景下,社会病态被定义为无法改变。
Throughout history there have been repeated attempts to fashion human societies in accordance with some sort of idealized image. This has been done by prophets, philosophers, social reformers, and in recent times by the state apparatus in more than one country. In all cases, these ideals have been defined by human authorities that have attempted to legitimize their authority by means of an ultimate authority such as science or God. But the identification of the ideal state with an ultimate authority precludes freedom to change. This is the essence of social pathology that in a social context is defined as inability to change.
在接受由最高权威定义的理想国家的框架内,可以区分两种方法。第一种方法包括为个人行为指定一套详细而全面的行为规则,如果社会所有成员都遵循这些规则,理想国家就会自动出现。以终极真理的名义,这种方法的目标是创造一个更符合他们理想社会形象的“新人”。具有讽刺意味的是,将“人的本性”改变为预编程机器人的屡屡失败并没有减少“忠实信徒”对追求的承诺。相反,他们具有非凡的否定能力,将失败归咎于人的弱点,并认为迫切需要通过建立极权主义秩序来实现全面控制。第二种方法的特点是努力建立一种新的社会结构,这种结构基于这样的假设:人完全是其环境的产物,其行为基本上是对环境的反应。科学社会主义代表了这种方法的首次尝试,一旦人们意识到适当的结构(韦伯式的官僚主义)未能产生预期的结果,在实践中就退化为第一种类型。
Within this framework of acceptance of an ideal state defined by ultimate authority, it is possible to distinguish between two approaches. The first approach consists of specifying a detailed and comprehensive set of rules of conduct for individual behavior which, if followed by all members of society, would automatically lead to the emergence of the ideal state. In the name of ultimate truth, the objective of this approach has been the creation of a “new man” who will better conform with their image of ideal society. Ironically the repeated failures in changing the “nature of man” into a preprogrammed robot has not reduced the commitment of “true believers” in their pursuit. On the contrary, enjoying a phenomenal capacity for denial, they blame the weakness of the man for the failures and see an urgent need for total control by establishment of a totalitarian order. The second approach is characterized by the struggle to create a new social structure based on the assumption that man is solely the product of his/her environment and that his/her behavior is basically a reaction to it. Scientific socialism, which represents the first attempt of this approach, degenerated in practice into the first type once it was realized that proper structure (Weberian bureaucracy) failed to produce the expected outcome.
这两种方法的根本问题在于,尽管表面上存在差异,但实际后果却相同,它们都误解了理想状态的本质以及实现理想状态的过程。它们都认为
The fundamental problem with both of these approaches, which despite their apparent differences result in the same practical consequences, is in their misconception of the nature of the ideal state and the processes that bring it about. They both contend that
1. 有且仅有一个由最终权威(上帝或科学)预先定义的终点(理想状态)。
1. There is one and only one end (ideal state) predefined by an ultimate authority (God or science).
2. 理想状态不仅是可以实现的,而且向理想状态迈进也是必然的。
2. The ideal state is not only attainable, but the movement toward it is also inevitable.
最终状态的必然性及其与生成过程的独立性导致了“为达目的不择手段”的观念。人们认为,特定阶级或群体夺取权力是实现最终状态的先决条件。
The inevitability of the final state, and its independence from the generating processes, leads to the notion that “the end justifies the means.” It is assumed that the seizure of power by the chosen class or group is a precondition for its realization.
但是,从系统观来看,理想是动态的,会随着时间而变化。社会系统成员共同定义的期望未来形象反映了特定历史时刻的时空现实(此时此地),因此在接近之前(移动目标)是可以改变的。系统思维将人视为一个有目的的系统,可以选择目的和手段,从而拒绝将人降级为机器人的努力。认识到社会系统行为中的选择因素,导致人们相信这些系统有能力选择自己的未来,并通过选择适当的手段逐步接近它。从系统观来看,每个现象都是选择过程的结果;因此,要实现期望的结果,就必须选择适当的过程来实现它。例如,否定结果的手段无法有效地实现结果。创造一个英雄来捍卫反对英雄主义的事业是一个自相矛盾的主张。手段是目的的共同生产者,直接影响结果现象的本质特质。
But, ideals, in the systems view, are regarded as dynamic and changing over time. The shared image of a desired future, defined by the members of the social system, reflects the spacio-temporal realities (here and now) of the particular historical moment, and thus is alterable even before being approached (moving target). By considering man as a purposeful system, with choice of both ends and means, the systems thinking rejects efforts aimed at degrading him to the level of a robot. The recognition of the element of choice in the behavior of social systems leads to the belief that these systems have the capability of selecting their own future and successively approximating it by choosing appropriate means. In the systems view every phenomenon is the result of chosen processes; thus, to bring about the desired end it is necessary to choose appropriate processes for its attainment. For example, means that negate the end cannot be effective in bringing it about. Creation of a hero to champion the cause against heroism is a self-defeating proposition. The means are among coproducers of the end, directly influencing the essential qualities of the resulting phenomenon.
腐败不仅仅是价值体系的失灵,而且是次级障碍。它是社会系统多个维度的结构缺陷的结果,包括权力、财富和知识的产生和分配。要发挥其重要功能,社会系统必须组织起来。社会系统的组织方式决定了它克服所面临障碍的能力。在这种情况下,当阻碍发展的障碍有利于那些负责消除障碍的人时,就会产生社会病态。不幸的是,官僚主义代表了一种病态的组织模式,有组织的利益集团从它所制造的障碍中获益。例如,官僚程序越复杂,管理它所需的人员就越多,管理机构就越大,控制力就越强。此外,目前的相互依赖和复杂程度要求更高的复杂程度,远远超出了目前官僚体系的已知能力。在这种情况下,只有官僚机构之外的权力来源才能在系统内创造运动。因此,个人会寻找和支持这些外部权力来源。随着时间的推移,有权有势的庇护者阶层会要求一定的回报来换取他们宝贵的支持。这种奖励结构使得腐败蔓延到整个系统,最终成为一种正当的生活方式。
Corruption is not just malfunctioning of the value system, but a second-order obstruction. It is the result of structural defects in more than one dimension of social systems including generation and distribution of power, wealth, and knowledge. To carry out its vital functions, a social system must be organized. The way a social system is organized determines its ability to overcome the obstructions it faces. In this context a social pathology is produced when an obstruction to development benefits those who are responsible for removing it. Unfortunately, bureaucracy represents a pathological mode of organization where an organized interest group benefits from the obstructions it has created. For instance, the more complex a bureaucratic process can be made, the more staff is required to manage it and the larger and more controlling the administering agency becomes. In addition, the present level of interdependence and complexity demand a higher level of sophistication that far surpasses the known capabilities of the present bureaucratic system. Under these conditions, only a source of power outside the bureaucracy can create movement within the system. Therefore, individuals will seek out and support these external power sources. In time, the hierarchy of powerful patrons demands certain rewards in exchange for their valuable support. This reward structure allows corruption to spread throughout the entire system, ultimately becoming a justifiable way of life.
当前的弊病不仅仅是个人道德问题,也不是某些流氓公司捏造数十亿美元。我们当前英美版股票市场资本主义的整个商业文化可能已经扭曲。我们可以事后看到,在 20 世纪 90 年代的繁荣时期,美国经常在原本不存在的地方创造价值,将公司的市值推高至收益的 64 倍甚至更高。
The current disease is not just a matter of dubious personal ethics or of some rouge companies fudging the odd billion. The whole business culture of our current Anglo-American version of stock market capitalism may have become distorted. We can see with hindsight, that in the boom years of the 1990s America had often been creating value where none existed, bidding up the market capitalization of companies to 64 times earning, or more.
如果将这一论点推向逻辑结论,就会发现美国企业正面临两大严峻挑战。第一个挑战涉及公司治理的有效性。查尔斯·汉迪 (Charles Handy) 称之为“赌徒”或投资者的缺席股东应该选举董事会成员。这些赌徒中的大多数对他们持有股份的实体没有任何长期承诺。今天他/她的利益可能在 X 公司,但没有人知道明天会在哪里。它甚至可能进入 X 的直接竞争对手 Y 公司。实际上,董事会实际上是由他们应该控制的管理层任命的。他们通常会重新选举最初将他们纳入董事会的首席执行官。
If one takes this argument to its logical conclusion it would reveal that corporate America is facing two critical challenges. The first challenge concerns the effectiveness of corporate governance. The absentee shareholders whom Charles Handy calls “gamblers” or investors are supposed to elect the members of the board of directors. Most of these gamblers do not have any long-term commitment to the entity in which they hold shares. Today his/her interest might be in X Corporation, but no one knows where it will be tomorrow. It might even find its way in to the Y Corporation that is a direct competitor of X. In reality the boards are virtually appointed by the management they are supposed to control. They usually re-elect the CEO who has placed them on the board in the first place.
第二个挑战是短期管理的巨大压力,如果下一季度的业绩不能满足股市对再次实现两位数增长的预期,被高估的股价就会震荡,赌徒们就会开始抛售股票,在这种压力下,不正当行为将成为常态,而不是例外。
The second challenge is produced by the tremendous pressure to manage for the short term. Unless the reports of the next quarter meet the expectation of the stock market for another double-digit growth performance, the overrated stock price will tremble and the gamblers will start to sell off the stock. Under this kind of pressure devious behavior will be the norm rather than the exception.
恐怖主义也许是和平国际秩序发展的最大障碍。它是次级障碍,其主要障碍包括贫穷、不平等、匮乏、无能为力、绝望、歧视、无知、仇恨和狂热。然而,人们对恐怖主义的具体定义尚无一致意见。一个人眼中的恐怖分子,另一个人眼中的自由战士。
Terrorism is perhaps the single most critical obstruction to development of a peaceful international order. It is a second-order obstruction that has most of the primary obstructions — poverty, disparity, deprivation, powerlessness, hopelessness, discrimination, ignorance, hatred, and fanaticism — as its coproducers. And yet there is no agreement on its operational definition. One person's terrorist is another person's freedom fighter.
然而,无论人们持何种观点,毫无疑问,恐怖主义是建立在“零和博弈”这一错误假设之上的。在零和博弈中,赢和输的总和为零。如果你输,我就会赢,反之亦然。随着系统变得越来越复杂,它们越来越容易受到少数人行动的影响。让对方输比试图取胜更容易。这就是为什么恐怖主义成为弱者在面对强大敌人时最喜欢的手段。因此,为了控制恐怖主义,我建议我们将其视为一种达到目的的手段。
However, irrespective of where one is coming from, there is no question that terrorism is based on the false assumption of the “zero-sum game.” In a zero-sum game the total sum of winnings and losses add up to zero. If you lose I will win, and vice versa. As systems get more sophisticated they become increasingly vulnerable to the actions of the few. Making the other side lose becomes easier than trying to win. This is why terrorism becomes the favorite means of weaker sides when confronting stronger enemies. Therefore, to get a handle on terrorism I propose we look at it as a means to an end.
鉴于共产主义垮台造成的意识形态真空,各种形式的原教旨主义势头强劲,在全球各地显著增长。在这些团体中,最令人担忧的是那些坚信世俗生活方式是“人间腐败”的运动。这一运动反对美丽、幸福、选择、多元化和自由。其追随者反对所有使世界变得更美好的价值观。
In light of the ideological vacuum created by the collapse of communism, various forms of fundamentalism have gained momentum and are growing noticeably all over the globe. Among these groups, the one that generates the most concern is the movement with an unshakable faith that a secular style of life is “corruption on the earth.” This movement is against beauty, happiness, choice, pluralism, and freedom. Its followers oppose all values that have made the world a better place to live.
无国籍的原教旨主义者网络对妇女在平等和自由方面的进步感到不满,对全人类构成了危险的威胁。这些真正的信徒准备使用任何形式的恐吓和暴力手段来让他们的妇女处于从属地位并受到控制。化解这一混乱局面是一项人权义务。它应该超越党派政治和相互竞争的经济利益。只有整个国际社会坚定不移地承诺并决心支持民间社会的发展和形成,才能奏效。被接受为世界社会的一员必须以接受和形成民间社会为前提。在全球化时代,没有一个国家可以承受被排除在世界社会之外的后果。这一事实是化解我们目前面临的这一混乱局面的最实际手段。它为民间社会的发展提供了最强大的动力。
The network of nationless fundamentalists, unhappy about progress of women toward equality and freedom, pose a dangerous threat to all of humanity. These true believers are ready to use any kind of intimidation and brutality to keep their women subordinate and under control. To dissolve this mess is a human rights obligation. It should be treated above partisan politics and competing economic interest. Nothing short of the uncompromising commitment and determination of the whole international community to support the development and formation of civil societies will do the trick. Acceptance as a member of the world community must be contingent upon accepting and forming a civil society. In the age of globalization no nation can afford to be left out of the world community. This fact is the most practical means of dissolving this mess we now face. It provides the strongest motive for the development of civil societies.
公民社会是一个世俗国家,不能认可任何宗教或意识形态。其权威的基础是人为的法律,而不是宗教教义、神启或世俗神灵。宗教自由(包括不信教的自由)和不信仰任何神的自由是形成多元秩序的先决条件,在多元秩序中,没有能力保护少数人权利的多数人不配执政。
The civil society is a secular state that cannot endorse any religion or ideology. The basis for its authority is in man-made law, not in religious doctrine, divine revelation, or a secular deity. Freedom of religion — including freedom from religion — and the freedom not to believe in any deity, are preconditions to the formation of a pluralistic order, where the majorities that are not capable of protecting the rights of minorities do not deserve to govern.
• 对于每个分化水平,都存在一个最低整合水平,低于这个水平,系统就会瓦解为混乱。相反,更高的整合水平需要更高的分化程度,以避免无序性。
• For every level of differentiation there exists a minimum level of integration below which the system would disintegrate into chaos. Conversely, higher levels of integration require higher degrees of differentiation to avoid sterility.
• 除非一个组织能有效地实现其包含系统及其有目的部分的目的,否则它们将无法很好地为组织服务。这就要求组织的设计应使各部分能够作为独立系统运行,具有相对自我控制的能力,同时又能充当有权做出集体选择的连贯整体的负责任部分。
• Unless an organization effectively serves the purposes of its containing systems and its purposeful parts, they will not serve it well. This requires that the organization be designed to enable the parts to operate as independent systems with the ability to be relatively self-controlling while acting as responsible parts of a coherent whole that has the right to make collective choices.
介绍
Introduction
不幸的是,尽管有各种相反的言论,但我们新发现的见解对我们的选择几乎没有影响。主流分析文化贴上了科学的标签,不断重复同样的非解决方案。有效使用这些有区别的概念需要清楚地了解社会文化系统的运作原理,并明确认识到分析方法的缺点。
Unfortunately, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, our newly found insights have had very little influence on our choices. A dominant analytical culture, with a scientific tag, keeps reproducing the same set of non-solutions all over again. Effective use of these discriminating conceptions requires both a clear understanding of the operating principles of sociocultural systems and unambiguous recognition of the shortcomings of the analytical approach.
多年来,我在不同层次和不同文化中对不同系统进行了不懈的探索,并进行了现实生活中的实验,这使我相信,系统思维的以下四个基础之间的相互作用是开发有效系统方法的关键,可以作为分析性思维的补充,而不是替代。这四个基础包括:社会文化系统、整体思维、操作性思维和设计性思维。
Years of struggle and real-life experimentation with different systems at different levels and in different cultures have led me to believe that the interactions among the following four foundations of systems thinking are the keys for development of an effective systems methodology as a complement and not a replacement for analytical thinking. The four foundations include: sociocultural systems, holistic thinking, operational thinking, and design thinking.
第五章 整体思维
Chapter five. Holistic Thinking
系统思维的特色在于它注重整体。但在大多数情况下,这种说法只是一种简单的意图声明,没有明确可行的方法。什么是系统方法?我们如何使用它来掌握整体?人们似乎对系统思维的可取性比对其操作性定义更为认同。
The distinction of systems thinking is its focus on the whole. But in most cases, this claim has been a simple declaration of intent without an explicit, workable methodology. What is systems methodology and how can we use it to get a handle on the whole? There seems to be more agreement on the desirability of systems thinking than on its operational definition.
与普遍持有的观念相反,流行的多学科方法概念并非系统方法。将独立发现综合成连贯整体的能力远比从不同角度生成信息的能力更为重要。然而,如果没有明确定义的综合方法,使用多学科方法进行发现的过程将像盲人摸象一样令人沮丧。每个盲人站在大象的不同部位,从各自的位置报告发现。“这是一条蛇。”“这是一根柱子。”“这是一把扇子。”“这是一支矛!”试想一下,如果在没有“大象”概念的情况下,试图通过这个故事来理解整体,那将是多么徒劳。我相信你在整理扭曲的信息并将其放在正确角度时不会感到沮丧,因为讲故事的人已经告诉我们故事的主题是大象。看来我们需要对整体有一个先入为主的概念,然后才能从混乱中整理出秩序。
Contrary to a widely held belief, the popular notion of a multidisciplinary approach is not a systems approach. The ability to synthesize separate findings into a coherent whole is far more critical than the ability to generate information from different perspectives. Without a well-defined synthesizing method, however, the process of discovery using a multidisciplinary approach would be an experience as frustrating as that of the blind men trying to identify an elephant. Positioned at a different part of the elephant, each of the blind men reported his findings from his respective position. “It's a snake.” “It's a pillar.” “It's a fan.” “It's a spear!” Consider the futility of trying to make sense of the whole by using this story without the prior conception of “elephant.” I am sure you experienced no frustration in sorting out the distorted information and putting it in perspective because the storyteller had already told us that the subject is an elephant. It seems we need a preconceived notion of the whole before we can glean order out of chaos.
波斯文学中还出现了同一个故事的另一个版本,由莫拉纳·贾拉莱丁·莫拉维(鲁米)讲述,捕捉到了我们对主题没有先入为主的概念时产生的复杂程度。这个故事讲述了一群人在完全黑暗中遇到一个奇怪的物体。由于讲故事的人自己也在黑暗中,他无法提供有关该物体的线索。在这里,所有通过触摸物体不同部分来识别物体的努力都徒劳无功,直到有人带着灯赶来。在这种情况下,光是方法论的隐喻,它使他们最终都能看到整体。
A different version of the same story, found in Persian literature and narrated by Molana Jalaledin Molavi (Rumi), captures the level of complexity produced when we have no preconceived notion of the subject. The story is about a group of men who encounter a strange object in complete darkness. Because the storyteller is in the dark himself, he cannot provide a clue about the object. Here, all efforts to identify the object by touching its different parts prove fruitless until someone arrives with a light. The light, which in this context is a metaphor for methodology, enables them all to see the whole at last.
鲁米版本的故事说明,要想看清整体,需要一种以操作系统方法论形式出现的赋能之光。鲁米在他的神秘智慧中提出,要获得赋能之光,一个人需要与宇宙协调。对于我们的目的而言,协调的操作意义在于,一个人应该能够明确了解和验证自己对社会文化系统性质的基本假设。
Rumi's version of the story illustrates that the ability to see the whole somehow requires an enabling light in the form of an operational systems methodology. In his mystical wisdom Rumi proposed that to get the enabling light one needed to tune in to the universe. For our purpose, the operational meaning of tuning in is that one should be able to make one's underlying assumptions about the nature of the sociocultural systems explicitly known and verifiable.
三种著名的探究系统(分析性思维、综合性思维和动态思维)尽管取得了成功,但尚未就看待整体的方法达成一致。
Three well-known inquiring systems (analytical thinking, synthetic thinking, and dynamic thinking), despite their success, have yet to agree on a method to see the whole.
然而,我认为,要看清整体,就需要同时理解结构、功能和过程。它们代表同一事物的三个方面,并与包含环境形成互补。因此,结构、功能和过程与上下文一起定义了整体,或者使对整体的理解成为可能。结构定义了组件及其关系,功能定义了产生的结果,过程明确定义了活动顺序和产生结果所需的专门知识,而上下文定义了系统所处的独特环境。
However, I contend that seeing the whole requires understanding structure, function, and process at the same time. They represent three aspects of the same thing and with the containing environment form a complementary set. Therefore, structure, function, and process with the context define the whole or make the understanding of the whole possible. Structure defines components and their relationships, function defines the outcomes or results produced, process explicitly defines the sequence of activities and the know-how required to produce the outcome, and context defines the unique environment in which the system is situated.
正如本章将要证明的,使用结构、功能和过程这三个视角作为整体方法论的基础,可以从实践和理论两个角度得到证明。
Use of all three perspectives of structure, function, and process as the foundation of a holistic methodology can be justified on both practical and theoretical grounds, as this chapter will demonstrate.
在更熟悉和更实际的领域,我们可以观察到,古典管理学派以投入为导向,处理结构问题。新古典管理学派以目标管理为理念,关注功能。而全面质量运动则关注控制,专注于过程。分析、综合和动态,各自都产生了大量的信息和知识。然而,如果我们同时从结构、功能和过程这三个角度来看待同一现象,我们就能对整体有更全面的理解。因此,可以合理地得出结论,整体方法必须包括结构、功能和过程这三个概念。
On more familiar and practical territory, we could observe that the classical school of management, with its input orientation, deals with structure. The neoclassical school, with its notion of management by objective, is concerned with functions. And the total quality movement, with its concern for control, is preoccupied with the process. Analysis, synthesis, and dynamics, each in its own right, have produced a great deal of information and knowledge. However, if we looked at the same phenomenon from all three perspectives of structure, function, and process at the same time, we could develop a more complete understanding of the whole. So, it is reasonable to conclude that a holistic approach must include all three notions of structure, function, and process.
因此,人们认为,要理解一个系统,我们只需要知道它的结构。这就是为什么分析——理解结构——是古典科学的主导方法。
Therefore, it is assumed that to understand a system, we need to know only its structure. This is why analysis — understanding structure — is the dominant method for classical science.
历史上,社会系统维度的认定既有被动的(对社会生活中的某些问题作出反应),也有主动的(追求终极的善)。被动的社会系统五个维度对应着历史上所有人类社会面临的以下主要问题领域:经济、科学、美学、伦理和政治。
Historically, the identification of social system dimensions has been both reactive (reacting to certain problems in social life) and proactive (reaching for the ultimate good). Reactively, the five dimensions of social systems correspond to the following major problem areas historically faced by all human societies: economics, scientifics, aesthetics, ethics, and politics.
20 世纪 70 年代初,我遇到阿科夫时,我们为此争论了好几天,最后他决定我需要听一场关于这个主题的精彩讲座。那场讲座非常精彩,我意识到我之所以没有理解美的概念,和阿科夫没有理解力量的概念是一样的。
When I met Ackoff, in the early 1970s, we argued over this for days, until he decided that I needed a good lecture on the subject. That lecture was beautiful, and I realized that I had missed the notion of beauty for exactly the same reason that Ackoff had missed the notion of power.
与我们的权力、财富、知识、美貌和价值观这五个维度相对应的是亚里士多德将自由与选择以及实现选择的意愿联系起来;他在财富标题下对健康、生命力和活力的讨论;关于求知的需要和思考的技能的深刻论证;没有爱的生活可能不值得过的断言;以及最后,道德美德(正确选择的良好习惯)的宏伟概念。
Paralleling our five dimensions of power, wealth, knowledge, beauty, and values are Aristotle's association of liberty with choice and the willfulness to carry them out; his discussion of health, vitality, and vigor under the heading of wealth; the profound argument about the need to know and the skill of thinking; the assertion that a loveless life may not be worth living; and, finally, the magnificent notion of moral virtues (the good habits of choosing correctly).
与传统做法不同,将这五个维度视为一个相互排斥且详尽无遗的集合,并不意味着要将每个维度孤立起来,以便单独进行分析。相反,这是为了强调它们的相互作用。虽然每个维度都代表着一种独特的功能,但它们之间的相互依赖性使得任何四个维度都完全有可能成为第五个维度的共同产物。例如,权力,作为一种能力,可能会受到财富、知识、美貌(魅力)和价值观(传统)的积极或消极影响。
Recognizing these five dimensions as a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set, unlike those of conventional practice, is not meant to isolate each dimension so it can be analyzed separately. Rather, it is meant to emphasize their interactions. Although each dimension represents a unique functionality, interdependency among them is such that it is quite feasible for any four to become coproducers of the fifth one. For example, power, as the ability to do, can be positively or negatively influenced by wealth, knowledge, beauty (charisma), and values (tradition).
在同样的背景下,集体和个人责任都将通过重新定义权力维度来实现,即权力维度为做事的权力而非权力的权力,以及权力重复的概念。这一观察引出了我们对权力的产生和分配的讨论。
In the same context both collective and individual responsibility would be realized by the reconceptualization of the power dimension as power-to-do instead of power-over and by the notion of duplication of power. This observation brings us to our discussion of generation and distribution of power.
要有效处理多重思维系统,就需要理解选择,而选择是自由和权力的问题。我们认为,虽然多重思维系统的各个部分越来越多地表现出选择并独立行事,但整体却变得越来越相互依赖。这代表着一个困境:集中化(整体权威)或分散化(部分自治)的二分法。这种二分法要么导致窒息(权力集中),要么导致混乱(权力放弃)。另一方面,基于“分享权力”的妥协会导致挫败感和僵局。
To deal effectively with multi-minded systems requires understanding choice, and choice is a matter of freedom and power-to-do. We have argued that while the parts of a multi-minded system increasingly display choice and behave independently, the whole becomes more and more interdependent. This represents a dilemma: a dichotomy of centralization (authority of the whole) or decentralization (autonomy of the parts). This dichotomy leads either to suffocation (concentration of power) or chaos (abdication of power). On the other hand, a compromise based on “sharing the power” produces frustration and gridlock.
答案在于,集权和分权是同一枚硬币的两面。两者必须同时发生。这种现象是可能的,因为权力就像知识一样。它可以被复制。将权力概念化为非零和实体是理解授权的本质和多思想系统管理的关键一步。授权不是权力的分享。分享意味着零和关系,因此意味着权力的放弃。相反,授权是组织或任何社会文化系统中权力的复制。它需要集体理解我们做我们正在做的事情的原因。这种共同的理解不仅使成员能够和谐而自主地行动,而且还使领导者能够代表集体采取有效和果断的行动。
The answer lies in the fact that centralization and decentralization are two sides of the same coin. Both have to happen at the same time. This phenomenon is possible because power is like knowledge. It can be duplicated. The conceptualization of power as a non-zero-sum entity is the critical step toward understanding the essence of empowerment and the management of multi-minded systems. Empowerment is not about the sharing of power. Sharing implies a zero-sum relationship and, therefore, abdication of power. Instead, empowerment is duplication of power in an organization or any sociocultural system. It requires a collective understanding of the reasons why we are doing what we are doing. Such a shared understanding not only empowers the members to act in harmony and autonomously, but also empowers the leaders to act effectively and decisively on behalf of the collectivity.
以下例子说明了这一点。假设你刚开始为一位严肃、奉行目标管理的人工作,他向你承诺,他将以分散的方式进行管理,并仅根据结果来评判你。你期待着这个机会来尝试一些需要一定程度的自主权才能实现的激动人心的想法。几周后,你遇到了你的新老板,并决定与他分享你一直在做的一些令人兴奋的事情。尽管他试图保持面无表情,但你不知何故感觉到他不喜欢他听到的内容。也许他心情不好。你告诉自己,“当他看到最终结果时,他会喜欢的。”
The following example illustrates this point. Suppose you have just started to work for a no-nonsense management-by-objective guy who has promised you that he will manage in a decentralized manner and will judge you only on the results. You look forward to this opportunity to try a few exciting ideas that require a degree of autonomy to be realized. After a few weeks you run into your new boss and decide to share with him some of the exciting things you have been doing. Although he attempts a poker face, you somehow sense he does not like what he is hearing. Maybe he is not in the right mood. You tell yourself, “When he sees the final results, he'll like it.”
几周后,在一次鸡尾酒会上,他看起来非常乐观,你认为这可能是与他分享新想法的好时机。但他不喜欢这些想法。你想,也许你应该让他一个人待一会儿。但为时已晚;他已经很紧张了。几天后,他出现在你的办公室,就你提出的一些建议问了几个问题。当他离开时,你知道他不高兴了。权力下放已经不复存在。你不能冒险让掌控你未来的人认为你无能。那么你会怎么做?每次你需要做决定时,你都会打电话问他希望你做什么。你们俩都变得越来越沮丧,最后你决定辞职。
A few weeks later, at a cocktail party, he seems very upbeat and you assume this might be a good time to share your new ideas with him. But he does not like them. Maybe you should leave him alone for a while, you think. But it is too late; he is already nervous. A few days later he shows up in your office and asks a few questions about some things you have proposed. When he leaves, you know he is not happy. Decentralization has gone out the window. You cannot risk being found incapable by the person who controls your future. So what do you do? You call him every time you need to make a decision to ask him what he wants you to do. You both become increasingly frustrated, and finally you decide to quit.
此时,另一个部门的经理提醒你,你有两个孩子在读大学,还有一笔抵押贷款要还。她给你提供了一份工作,前提是你要忘掉关于权力下放和自治的胡言乱语,完全按照她的话去做。别无选择,你勉强接受了这份工作。然而,你的新老板做事风格很怪。她不仅告诉你该做什么,还告诉你她为什么这么想。有一段时间,你觉得她想给你洗脑。或者她可能没有安全感,想证明什么。你试图向她保证你的忠诚。“只要告诉我该怎么做,我就会去做,”你告诉她。但她不会放弃。显然,她喜欢说话。在这些互动中,不知何故,你会发现她是如何做决定的,你了解了她的决策标准,你开始理解她的价值体系。有一天,当她大声思考试图告诉你该怎么做时,你问她,“这样怎么样?”她说,“太棒了。”权力下放就这样发生了。
At this point a manager from another department reminds you that you have two kids in college and a mortgage to pay. She offers you a job if you are willing to forget the nonsense about decentralization and autonomy and do exactly what she tells you. Having no other choice, you reluctantly accept the offer. Your new boss, however, has a funny style. Not only does she tell you what to do, but she also tells you why she thinks this way. For a while you think she wants to brainwash you. Or maybe she is insecure and wants to prove something. You try to reassure her of your loyalty. “Just tell me what to do and I'll do it,” you tell her. But she will not give up. Apparently, she loves to talk. During these interactions, somehow, you find out how she makes decisions, you learn her decision criteria, and you begin to understand her value system. One day, when she's thinking out loud trying to tell you what to do, you ask her, “How about this?” She says, “Fantastic.” Decentralization happens.
这些单元的主要功能是创建关于组织为何做其所做之事的共同理解,培养对文化默认价值观的认识,并对决策标准抱有集体责任。
The main function of these cells is to create a shared understanding of why the organization does what it does, to develop an awareness of the default values of the culture, and to take collective ownership of the decision criteria.
无法达成共识的情况需要最高级别的领导。缺乏共识将需要领导者做出判断,以确保流程不会停滞。然后,他/她必须制定一个明确的工作综合方案,综合各种不同的立场,如果参与者没有做出其他决定,该方案将在会议结束时作为默认决定采纳。当小组仍然严重两极分化时,另一种选择是让对立双方就一项实验达成一致,实验结果将产生决定。小组应该就实验的设计达成一致,并指定其性能标准。对立双方来说,提前说明什么会证明他们错了也非常有用。
Situations that defy consensus call for leadership in its highest form. The absence of consensus would be a judgment call on the leader to ensure that the process is not hung up. He/she would then have to formulate an explicit working synthesis of the different positions that would be adopted as the default decision by the end of the session if the participants produce no alternative decision. When the group remains seriously polarized, the alternative is for the opposing parties to agree on an experiment whose result will produce the decision. The group should agree on the design of the experiment and specify its performance criteria. It is also very useful for the opposing parties to specify, up front, what will prove them wrong.
如果不理解美在社会融合中的作用,就无法完全理解整体思维。与机器相比,将零件整合成一个有凝聚力的整体是一次性的任务,而对于组织而言,整合问题是一项持续不断的斗争和持续关注的问题。尽管我们渴望个性和独特性,但作为情感上脆弱的社会生物,我们表现出强烈的成为集体成员的倾向。我们大多数人都渴望与他人认同、被他人接受并遵守我们选择的群体的规范。
The understanding of holistic thinking cannot be complete without understanding the role of beauty in social integration. In contrast to machines in which integration of the parts into a cohesive whole is a one-time proposition, for organizations the problem of integration is a constant struggle and a continuous concern. Despite a desire for individuality and uniqueness, as emotionally vulnerable social beings we display a strong tendency to be members of a collectivity. Most of us have a burning desire to identify with others, to be accepted by others, and to conform to the norms of a group of our choice.
这种整合现象似乎根植于我们生命的情感层面。一本激动人心的书、美丽的物品以及一次英雄或悲剧性的遭遇都会激发人们分享的冲动。个性与集体之间的界限——我有多少是我,我有多少是我所依附的人——仍然是美的表现的核心。因此,美是社会融合的最有力的推动者。一个组织实现的融合程度取决于它在成员中激发的兴奋和承诺程度。
This integrative phenomenon seems rooted in the emotional dimension of our beings. An exciting book, objects of beauty, and a heroic or a tragic encounter all generate an urge to share. The boundary between individuality and collectivity — the question of how much of me is me and how much of me is those to whom I am bonded — remains at the heart of the manifestation of beauty. Beauty is, therefore, the most potent agent of social integration. The level of integration that an organization achieves depends on the level of excitement and commitment it generates among its members.
回想一下,在之前关于发展的讨论中,我们将欲望视为创造一个有成就的社会的基本要素。没有欲望的能力是无能的,就像没有能力的欲望是无用的一样。在这种情况下,与普遍的看法相反,美学并不是奢侈品。纵观历史,与美学相悖的社会无一例外地被证明是反人类和反发展的。
Recall that in the earlier discussion of development we identified desire as the essential ingredient for creation of an achieving society. Ability without desire is impotent, just as desire without ability is sterile. In this context aesthetics, contrary to popular belief, is not a luxury. Throughout history, societies that were antithetical to aesthetics invariably proved to be anti-human and anti-development as well.
社会文化系统(家庭、团体、组织、国家)成员身份的重要性在于,这些系统的单位不是个人,而是赋予他们的角色。在不同情况下,在不同的社会环境下,个人会表现出不同的行为。好朋友不一定是好员工。成功的副总裁可能会成为糟糕的总统。这些角色的性质受到期望和社会结构、文化以及参与者所映射的各种环境现实所施加的限制的影响。
The significance of membership in sociocultural systems (family, groups, organizations, nations) lies in the fact that the units of these systems are not the individuals but the roles imparted to them. Under different circumstances and in different social settings, individuals display different behaviors. A good friend is not necessarily a good employee. A successful vice president might make a lousy president. The nature of these roles is influenced by expectations and the limitations imposed by the social structure, the culture, and various environmental realities mapped by the actors.
在一个多元心智体系中,有效的成员资格需要一种角色、一种归属感以及参与创造群体未来的承诺,因此无角色性是整合社会体系的主要障碍。
Effective membership in a multi-minded system requires a role, a sense of belonging, and a commitment to participate in creating the group's future, so much so that rolelessness is the major obstruction to integrating a social system.
当一个人感到自己对群体成就的贡献微不足道,或感到无力在系统绩效中发挥有效作用时,就会产生冷漠感,并逐渐疏远自己本应是积极成员的系统。
When an individual feels that his/her contributions to the group's achievements are insignificant, or when he/she feels powerless to play an effective role in the system's performance, a feeling of indifference sets in and the individual gradually becomes alienated from the very system in which he/she is supposed to be an active member.
在这种情况下,无法履行特定角色的责任(无能)会导致焦虑和沮丧。要履行医生或木匠的角色,需要学习一定程度的专业知识和技能。否则,承担这一角色的人就会被疏远。由于链条的强度取决于其最薄弱的环节,因此成员之间的不兼容性通常会导致更有活力的成员退化到最弱的水平,从而传播一种普遍的无能为力的感觉。社会体系内价值观的冲突也会导致其成员的疏远。个人的价值观形象与社区价值观的一致程度决定了该个人在该社区的成员身份程度。
In this context, the inability to carry out the responsibilities of a specific role (incompetence) results in anxiety and frustration. To fulfill the role of a physician or carpenter requires certain levels of expertise and mastery that must be learned. Otherwise, the individual to whom the role is entrusted will be alienated. As the strength of a chain is determined by its weakest link, incompatibility between the members often causes the more dynamic ones to retrogress to the level of the weakest, spreading a general feeling of ineffectualness and impotency. Conflicting values within a social system also contribute to alienating its members. The extent to which an individual's value image coincides with that of the community determines the degree of that individual's membership in that community.
多元思想组织是由有目的的成员自愿组成的联合体。除了自身的生存能力之外,组织的目的还在于服务于其成员的目的,同时也服务于其整体的目的。成员加入组织是为了服务自己。除非组织为他们服务,否则他们不会很好地为组织服务。
A multi-minded organization is a voluntary association of purposeful members. The purpose of an organization, in addition to its own viability, is to serve the purposes of its members while serving the purposes of its containing whole. Members join an organization to serve themselves. Unless the organization serves them, they will not serve it well.
任何社会体系的成功最终都取决于其产生和传播知识的能力,而这需要一个立体的学习体系。
The success of any social system will ultimately depend on its ability to generate and disseminate knowledge, which requires a three-dimensional learning system.
当系统的各个部分表现出选择时,它们之间的冲突是不可避免的。无冲突社会的理想不仅不可行,甚至不可取。只有当其成员的行为被降低到机器人水平时,无冲突系统才有可能实现。答案是,社会文化系统应该发展出不断化解冲突的能力。
When parts of a system display choice, conflict among them is inevitable. The ideal of a conflict-free society not only is not feasible, but it is not even desirable. A conflict-free system will only be possible if the behaviors of its members are reduced to a robotic level. The answer is that sociocultural systems should develop the capability for continuously dissolving conflicts.
整合多元心智系统就是设计一个组织,其成员可以作为独立的部分进行运作并做出个人选择,同时又可以作为一个连贯整体的负责任的成员进行集体选择。
To integrate a multi-minded system is to design an organization whose members can operate as independent parts with individual choices while simultaneously acting as responsible members of a coherent whole with a collective choice.
• 如果组织要服务于其成员及其环境,就必须能够处理冲突。创建一个没有冲突的组织可能是不可能的,但创建一个能够处理冲突的组织是可能的。
• If organizations are to serve their members as well as their environments, they must be able to deal with conflict. Creating a conflict-free organization may not be possible, but creating one capable of dealing with conflict is.
当冲突局势被表述为零和博弈时,一方的收益必然与另一方的损失相关。但在多维概念中,除了胜负之争外,双输和双赢的可能性也很大。因此,一方的损失并不总是另一方的收益。相反,两种相反的趋势可以同时增加或减少。
When the conflict situation is formulated as a zero-sum game, gain for one player is invariably associated with a loss for the other. But in the multidimensional concept, a lose/lose as well as win/win, in addition to win/lose struggles, are strong possibilities. Therefore, a loss for one side is not always a gain for the other. On the contrary, both opposing tendencies can increase or decrease simultaneously.
化解冲突就是要找到新的参照框架,在这个框架中,对立的趋势在具有新逻辑的新整体中被视为互补的。它需要重新表述,或者更确切地说,重新概念化所涉及的变量。
To dissolve a conflict is to discover new frames of reference in which opposing tendencies are treated as complementary in a new ensemble with a new logic of its own. It requires reformulation or, more precisely, reconceptualization of the variables involved.
最后,化解冲突就是重新设计包含冲突的系统,创建“由不可行的部分组成的可行的整体”。
Finally, to dissolve a conflict is to redesign the system that contains the conflict, creating “a feasible whole from infeasible parts.”
双输斗争的一个重要特征是,它有可能转变为双输或双赢环境。在当今复杂而高度分化的社会体系中,双输环境的出现不仅可能性很大,而且越来越成为主导现实。
An important characteristic of a win/lose struggle is the possibility of converting it to either a lose/lose or a win/win environment. In today's complex and highly differentiated social systems, emergence of a lose/lose environment is not only highly probable, but it is an increasingly dominant reality.
目的和手段是可以互换的概念。目的是实现进一步目的的手段。将冲突转变为竞争需要找到较低层次冲突倾向所共有的较高层次目标。较低层次的对立目的被转化为具有共同较高层次目标的冲突手段,从而产生竞争。
Ends and means are interchangeable concepts. An end is a means for further ends. Changing conflict to competition requires finding higher level objectives shared by lower level conflicting tendencies. The lower level opposing ends are converted into conflicting means with a shared higher level objective, resulting in competition.
当目的和手段趋于一致并变得相同时,寻找共同的更高层次目标的探索可以持续到理想阶段并包括理想阶段。随着向更高层次迈进,找到共同目标的可能性会增加。理想阶段的概率最大。现在,如果即使是理想阶段也无法为冲突趋势产生共同目标,那么冲突在现有世界观的背景下就被视为无法化解。在这种情况下,化解冲突需要改变世界观。这种改变可能是对现有假设无法应对新时代的挫败感的反应,是一系列事件使传统智慧失效的反应,也可能是通过有目的的转变的积极学习和忘却学习过程来实现的。
The search for finding a shared higher level end can continue up to and include the ideal, when ends and means converge and become the same. The probability of finding a shared objective increases by moving to higher and higher levels. It is maximized at the ideal level. Now, if even the ideal level cannot produce a common end for conflicting tendencies, then the conflict is considered non-dissolvable within the context of existing worldviews. In this situation, dissolving the conflicts requires a change of worldviews. This change can be a reaction to frustrations with the existing assumptions' failure to deal with a new era, a march of events nullifying conventional wisdom, or it can happen by an active learning-and-unlearning process of purposeful transformation.
对于一个基于民主惯例的可行社会而言,定义多数人统治的概念和参数至关重要。必须就合法多数的构成达成广泛的共识:多数人的权力、界限,以及多数人是否有权以整体的名义凌驾于个人之上或践踏少数人。它应该定义少数人和多数人权利的界限,以便它们可以补充而不是侵犯他人的权利。如果法治的合法性在于多数人的意愿,那么多数人的暴政就已经是既成事实,除非它超越多数人本身并凌驾于多数人之上。例如,多数人无权否认其民主权利,从而以民主的方式破坏民主本身。
For a viable society based on democratic conventions, it is crucial to define the notion and parameters of majority rule. It is imperative to forge a widespread agreement on what constitutes a legitimate majority: its powers, its boundaries, and whether it has a right to override the individual or trample minorities in the name of the whole. It should define the limits of the minority and majority rights so that they may complement, rather than encroach on, the rights of others. If the rule of law finds its legitimacy in the will of the majority, then tyranny of the majority would already be an accomplished fact unless it transcends, and reigns supreme over and above, the majority itself. The majority, for example, has no right to disown its right to democracy and, thus, democratically undermine democracy itself.
个人和集体都有各自但又相互关联的权利和责任。这两组权利和责任不仅不相互排斥,而且本质上是互补的。它们是如此相互依存,以至于处理其中之一时必须触及另一个。
The individual and the collectivity both have separate, and yet interrelated, rights and responsibilities. Not only are these two sets of rights and responsibilities not exclusive, but they are essentially complementary. They are so interdependent that one could not be dealt with without touching the other.
集体拥有独特的安全、生存和主权权利。它有权采取行动;其决策过程不能被劫持。它还负责确保个人,即使是少数人,也有足够的选择,使他的选择有意义。
Collectivity has distinct rights to security, viability, and sovereignty. It has a right to act; its decision process cannot be taken hostage. It is also responsible for making sure that the individual, even as a minority of one, is provided with enough alternatives to make his/her choices meaningful.
公民个人拥有不可剥夺的权利,例如隐私权和不受歧视的权利。除了这些权利之外,个人还可以享有某些特权,只要满足或不满足某些条件,他/她可以获得或失去这些特权。然而,个人可能会失去他/她滥用的特权;不负责任的驾驶就是一个明显的例子。
An individual citizen has inalienable rights, such as the right to privacy and the right not to be discriminated against. In addition to these rights, an individual can enjoy certain privileges, which he/she may acquire or lose, provided certain conditions are, or are not, satisfied. An individual, however, stands to lose the privileges that he/she abuses; irresponsible driving would be one obvious example.
第六章 运营思维
Chapter six. Operational Thinking
关系就是现实的一切。
Relationships are all there is to reality.
关系是现实的全部,而操作性思维就是要映射这些关系。它涉及捕捉交互、互连以及活动的顺序和流程。它涉及系统如何运作,以及产生新兴属性(生命、爱、幸福、成功、吞吐量)的动态过程,这些属性是在线和实时的。简而言之,它涉及解锁系统输入和输出之间的黑匣子。思考任何事情都需要对它有一个心理形象或模型。心理模型是对现实的选择性抽象,充其量也是一种过度简化。然而,我们在创建即使是简单的动态现象的工作心理模型或尝试可视化相互依赖变量的行为时确实会遇到极大的困难。似乎我们的认知能力主要发展到处理有关“此时此地”和“当下”的静态模型。操作性思维是一种巧妙的方法,可以克服构建和模拟复杂、动态心理模型时遇到的困难。
Relationships are all there is to the reality and operational thinking is about mapping these relationships. It is about capturing interactions, interconnections, and the sequence and flow of activities. It is about how systems do what they do, the dynamic process of producing emergent properties — life, love, happiness, success, throughputs — online and real-time. In a nutshell, it is about unlocking the black box that lies between system inputs and its outputs. To think about any thing requires a mental image or model of it. A mental model is a selective abstraction of reality and at best it is an oversimplification. However, we do experience extreme difficulty when creating a working mental model of even a simple dynamic phenomenon or attempt to visualize the behavior of interdependent variables. It seems that our cognitive abilities have mostly developed to deal with the static models concerning “here” and “now.” Operational thinking is an ingenious way to overcome the difficulties encountered in constructing and simulating complex, dynamic mental models.
操作性思维是关于映射关系的。它涉及捕捉交互、互连、活动的顺序和流程以及游戏规则。它涉及系统如何运作,或者使用结构元素产生所需功能的动态过程。简而言之,它涉及解锁系统输入和系统输出之间的黑匣子。
Operational thinking is about mapping relationships. It is about capturing interactions, interconnections, the sequence and flow of activities, and the rules of the game. It is about how systems do what they do, or the dynamic process of using elements of the structure to produce the desired functions. In a nutshell, it is about unlocking the black box that lies between system input and system output.
涌现属性是在线实时运行的动态过程的最终结果。当一个生命系统死亡时,它就失去了这种“生命属性”;维持它的自组织行为不再起作用。
An emergent property is the end result of a dynamic process that operates online and in real time. When a living system dies it loses this “livingness property”; the self-organizing behavior that held it together no longer functions.
显然,我们备受推崇的传统工具并没有发挥作用。否则,我们怎么解释这一令人遗憾的事实:在过去 50 年的大部分时间里,我们一直在用同一套无效的解决方案来解决毒品、贫困、犯罪、文盲和财富分配不均等重大社会问题,却没有明显的新收获?为什么这么多聪明人构想的如此多的善意绩效改进努力却常常无法实现目标?大多数重组努力都失败了,重大项目超支幅度很大,并购未能实现预期的协同效应。让我们来研究一下里士满关于进一步思考的断言。
Apparently our highly regarded conventional tools are not doing their jobs. Otherwise how could we explain the sorry fact that we have been applying the same set of non-solutions to crucial social problems such as drugs, poverty, crime, illiteracy, and maldistribution of wealth for most of the last 50 years, with no obvious sign of any new learning? Why do so many well-intended performance improvement efforts, conceived by so many smart people, so often miss the mark? Most re-engineering efforts have failed, major projects have overrun by very large margins, and the mergers and acquisitions have not been able to realize anticipated synergy. Let us examine Richmond's assertion about thinking a little further.
思考任何事情都需要在脑海中形成一个形象或模型。心理模型是对现实的选择性抽象,充其量也只是一种过度简化。此外,不幸的是,我们的认知能力已经发展到可以处理有关“此时此地”的静态模型。它是围绕单向因果关系或开环思维的假设而发展起来的。因此,我们在为哪怕是简单的动态现象创建可行的心理模型或尝试可视化相互依赖变量的行为时都会遇到极大的困难。
To think about anything requires a mental image or model of it. A mental model is a selective abstraction of reality and at best it is an oversimplification. In addition, our cognitive abilities have unfortunately developed to deal with the static models concerning “here” and “now.” It has evolved around assumptions of unidirectional causality or open loop thinking. Therefore, we experience extreme difficulty when creating a working mental model of even a simple dynamic phenomenon or attempt to visualize the behavior of interdependent variables.
单词和句子必须以线性、逻辑顺序一次只出现一个。系统同时发生。它们的元素不仅在一个方向上连接,而且同时在多个方向上连接。图片比文字更适合这种语言,因为你可以同时看到图片的所有部分。
Words and sentences must, by necessity, come only one at a time in a linear, logical order. Systems happen all at once. Their elements are connected not just in one direction, but also in many directions simultaneously. Pictures work for this language better than words, because you can see all the parts of a picture at once.
因此,在绘制动态过程时,我们将更多地依赖图形表示而不是书面语言。我们还需要更好地理解复杂性的来源和性质。最后,我们需要一个可以明确显示相互依赖关系、基本假设和所研究动态现象的丰富性的操作建模工具。
Therefore, in mapping the dynamic processes, we will rely more heavily on pictorial presentation rather than the written language. We also need to have a better understanding of the source and nature of complexity. Finally, we need an operational modeling tool that can explicitly display the interdependencies, the underlying assumptions, and the richness of the dynamic phenomenon under study.
理解复杂性的第一步是理解闭环系统的迭代和动态特性及其反直觉行为。请考虑以下两个简单示例:
The first step in understanding complexity is to appreciate the iterative and thus dynamic nature of closed loop systems and their counterintuitive behavior. Consider the following two simple examples:
现在将这个金额与通过单利示例可以赚取的 66,000 美元进行比较,以更好地理解行为上的巨大差异。
Now compare this amount with the $66,000 that would have been earned with the simple interest example to better understand the dramatic difference in behavior.
请注意,我们的大多数数学工具都是基于线性假设而非非线性假设。在线性系统中,可以通过添加其各部分的值来获得整体的值(I 类属性)。相比之下,非线性是一种突现属性的特征,其中整体是各部分相互作用的产物。
Please note that most of our mathematical tools are based on the assumption of linearity rather than nonlinearity. In a linear system, a value for the whole can be reached by adding the value of its parts (type I property). Nonlinearity, by contrast, is characteristic of an emergent property where the whole is the product of interactions of the parts.
正反馈循环产生的指数增长曲线假设资源是无限的,但实际上资源是一个普遍的约束,所有的指数增长曲线最终都会受到承载能力的影响,因此最终都会转化为S型曲线。
The exponential growth curve resulting from a positive feedback loop assumes unlimited resources, but in reality, a resource is a universal constraint and all exponential growth curves will eventually be influenced by carrying capacity and therefore will ultimately convert to an S-shaped curve.
当行为相当简单时,用数学方程描述行为的想法很有效。当行为更复杂时,它几乎不可避免地会失败。事实上,有许多常见现象,理论科学对此几乎没有什么可说的。用数学表示现象的难度随着其复杂程度的增加而呈指数级增长。
The idea of describing behavior in terms of mathematical equations works well where the behavior is fairly simple. It almost inevitably fails whenever the behavior is more complex. Indeed, there are many common phenomena about which theoretical science has had remarkably very little to say. Degree of difficulty encountered in mathematical representation of a phenomenon increases exponentially by the degree of its complexity.
沃尔夫勒姆接着展示了传统数学无法理解的复杂系统如何遵循简单的操作规则。沃尔夫勒姆利用现在著名的细胞自动机展示了如何通过迭代非常简单的规则来产生高度复杂的系统。通过开发计算机程序,他能够重现复杂现象的基本特征。他的“新科学”使我们能够捕捉自组织系统的运行,并了解无序系统如何自发组织起来产生极其复杂的结构。
Wolfram then goes on to demonstrate how systems too complex for traditional mathematics could yet obey simple operational rules. With his now famous cellular automata, Wolfram demonstrated how iteration of remarkably simple rules could produce highly complex systems. By developing a computer program, he was able to reproduce the essential characteristics of complex phenomena. His “new kind of science” makes it possible to capture the operation of a self-organizing system and understand how disordered systems spontaneously organize themselves to produce vastly complex structures.
尽管多环非线性反馈系统表现出混沌行为,但混沌中却有秩序。此类系统似乎会产生特定的行为模式。
Although multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems exhibit chaotic behavior, there is an order in this chaos. Such systems seem to produce particular patterns of behavior.
发现我们感兴趣的系统的行为模式是识别隐藏秩序的关键,隐藏秩序将系统锁定在当前进程中。除非隐藏秩序被明确化和拆除,否则无论干预的意图多么良好,当前行为都会比任何干预的暂时效果更持久。
Discovering the pattern of behavior for our system of interest is the key for recognizing the hidden order that is locking the system into its present course. Unless the hidden orders are made explicit and dismantled, the current behavior will outlive any temporary effects of interventions no matter how well intended.
请记住,映射系统的动态行为就是捕捉正反馈和负反馈回路的相互作用。这些相互作用本质上定义了相互依赖性,而相互依赖性又导致系统的非线性。相互依赖性对我们的认知能力构成了重大挑战。我们需要通过使用操作建模来克服这一挑战。模式识别对于理解和改变不良行为至关重要。这导致我们需要开发正在研究的现象的交互式操作表示。
Remember that to map the dynamic behavior of a system is to capture the interaction of positive and negative feedback loops. These interactions, in essence, define the interdependencies, which in turn are responsible for nonlinearity in the system. It is the interdependency that poses the major challenge to our cognitive abilities. It is this challenge that we need to overcome by using operational modeling. Pattern recognition is critical for understanding and changing undesirable behavior. This leads us to the need for development of interactive operational representation of the phenomenon under investigation.
总而言之,理解以下原则是掌握操作性思维的关键:
To summarize, appreciation of the following principles is the key for getting in tune with operational thinking:
• 通过了解整体的行为来预测部分的行为比通过了解部分的行为来预测整体的行为更容易。
• It is easier to predict the behavior of the parts by understanding the behavior of the whole than to predict the behavior of the whole by understanding the behavior of the parts.
• 要真正理解操作性思维,就必须认识到时间实际上并不是由箭头来定义的,而是由“节拍”或节奏来定义的,以及对复杂现象的迭代性质的欣赏。
• True understanding of operational thinking comes with the realization that time is not really defined by an arrow but by the “beat,” or the rhythm and appreciation of the iterative nature of complex phenomenon.
• 掌握节拍(定期重复预先定义的一组操作)对于掌握闭环系统和发现负责再生混乱行为模式的隐藏秩序至关重要。
• Getting the beat — periodic repeats of a predefined set of operations — is essential to getting a handle on the closed loop systems and discovering the hidden order responsible for regenerating chaotic patterns of behavior.
• 思考需要使用心智模型,但心智模型只是现实的抽象,充其量也是一种过度简化。将其明确化是学习和改进它们的唯一机会。
• To think one needs to use a mental model, but mental models are only an abstraction of reality and at best an oversimplification. Making them explicit is the only chance one has to learn and improve them.
观察它的行为
Watch how it behaves
了解它的历史
Learn its history
引导你的思维进行动态分析,而不是静态分析
Direct your thought to dynamic, not static analysis
不仅要问“哪里出了问题?”还要问“我们是怎么走到这一步的?”
Not only to “What is wrong?” but “How did we get there?”
寻找“为什么”的问题,为什么系统会如此运作。
Search for the why question, why system behaves the way it does.
转换器以圆圈表示,代表常量、转换表、方程条件、图形关系、iThink 函数以及所有不会累积但会对流行为产生影响的因素或变量。
Converters, signified by circles, represent constants, conversion tables, equation conditions, graphical relationships, iThink functions, and all of the factors or variables that do not accumulate but have an influence on the behavior of a flow.
iThink 操作模型可用于多种问题情境,但我特别喜欢在以下两种情境中使用它们:
iThink operational models are used in a variety of problem situations, but I especially prefer to use them in the following two contexts:
2. 研究相互依赖变量的行为并捕捉所研究现象的动态相互作用。为此,我为每个关键变量指定一个存量及其相应的流入和/或流出,然后使用必要的转换器和连接器来建立它们的关系和定义的反馈回路。
2. To investigate the behavior of interdependent variables and capture the dynamic interactions of the phenomenon under study. For this purpose I designate each critical variable with a stock and its corresponding inflow and/or outflow, then use the necessary convertor and connectors to establish their relationship and the defining feedback loops.
在全球经济中,价格由全球市场决定,使其成为一个不可控变量。这使得斯隆著名的“成本加成”定价政策变得过时。斯隆的著名论断是,成本是一个不可控变量,而由成本加上合理利润组成的价格是一个可控变量,这使得成本加成经济在美国长期占据主导地位。但游戏规则已经改变。今天,竞争的唯一方式是降低成本,通过定期重新设计产品和生产过程来提高产量,并记住 75% 的成本是由设计驱动的。但要提高产量,我们必须同时处理以下四个相互依赖的变量:周期时间、成本、灵活性和质量。这只能通过构建能够处理相互依赖变量的生产过程动态模型来实现。
In a global economy, price is set by the global market, making it an uncontrollable variable. This renders Sloane's famous “cost plus” pricing policy obsolete. Sloane's famous assertion, that cost is an uncontrollable variable and price consisting of cost plus a reasonable profit is the controllable variable, led to a dominating cost plus economy in America that lasted for a long time. But the game has changed. Today, the only way to compete is to reduce cost, improve throughput by periodically redesigning the product and throughput processes, and remembering that 75% of the cost is design driven. But to improve throughput requires that we deal with the following four interdependent variables simultaneously: cycle time, cost, flexibility, and quality. This can only be done by building a dynamic model of the throughput process that is capable of dealing with interdependent variables.
我们将生产量定义为创造和传播财富的过程。它包含获取所需投入、将投入转化为产出、然后将最终产品推向市场所需的所有活动。因此,营销、销售、订单处理、采购、生产、运输、开票和会计(以及现金管理、质量、时间和成本)都属于生产量链的活动。
We have defined throughput as the process of generating and disseminating wealth. It contains all of the activities necessary to obtain required inputs, convert inputs to outputs, and then take the final products to market. Therefore, marketing, selling, order processing, purchasing, producing, shipping, billing, and accounting — in addition to cash management, quality, time, and cost — are among the activities of a throughput chain.
服务业的活动列表可能略有不同;例如,教育系统的吞吐量将包括选择和注册学生、安排课程、教学、考试和颁发证书等活动。同时,医疗保健系统的吞吐量可能包括接触患者、接触医疗保健提供者、与第三方付款人的接口、医疗保健的提供、患者护理的提供以及报销系统的管理。
The list of activities for a service industry might be slightly different; for example, throughput of an education system will include activities for selecting and registering students, scheduling the courses, teaching, giving exams, and issuing certifications. Meanwhile, the throughput of a health-care system may include access to patients, access to health-care providers, interface with third-party payers, delivery of health care, delivery of patient care, and management of the reimbursement system.
然而,显而易见的是,即使是一个简单的吞吐量也包含一系列需要集成的事件和活动。由于这些活动通常由组织中不同部门的不同团队执行,因此强大的接口和有效的耦合是实现具有竞争力的吞吐量的必要条件。
Nevertheless, it is obvious that even a simple throughput consists of a chain of events and activities that need to be integrated. Since these activities are usually carried out by different groups in different departments of an organization, strong interface and effective coupling among them are a must for a competitive throughput.
实际上,要设计一个吞吐量系统,我们需要
Actually, to design a throughput system, we need to
• 了解替代技术的最新进展、可用性和可行性及其与新兴竞争游戏的相关性
• Know the state-of-the-art, as well as availability and feasibility of alternative technologies and their relevance to the emerging competitive game
• 了解流动、活动元素之间的接口以及耦合功能的工作原理
• Understand the flow, the interface between active elements, and how the coupling function works
• 了解系统的动态,例如时间周期、缓冲、延迟、队列、瓶颈和反馈回路
• Appreciate the dynamics of the system such as the time cycle, buffers, delays, queues, bottlenecks, and feedback loops
• 处理关键变量之间的相互依赖关系,并处理开环和闭环、结构要求和系统约束
• Handle the interdependencies among critical variables, plus deal with open and closed loops, structural imperatives, and system constraints
• 具备生产量会计的操作知识,包括目标成本和变动预算
• Have an operational knowledge of throughput accounting including target costing and variable budgeting
由于链条的强度由其最薄弱的元素决定,因此他提出了一个迭代过程,按照最薄弱环节的顺序依次加强薄弱环节。每次迭代都会以最小的成本将吞吐量提高到下一个最薄弱元素定义的极限,从而消除了过度设计的成本。
Since the strength of a chain is defined by its weakest element, he proposes an iterative process of strengthening the weak links in sequence of the weakest link first. Each iteration improves the throughput to the next limit defined by the next weakest element with a minimum cost, thus eliminating the cost of over-designs.
请注意,曲线下的面积是按时完成任务的概率。不确定性越高,分布的尾部越长。中位数意味着只有 50% 的机会在此时间或之前完成。
Note that the area under the curve is the probability of finishing the task on time. The higher the uncertainty, the longer the tail of the distribution. Median means that there is only a 50% chance of finishing at or before this time.
为了重申我们早期关于开发生产量过程动态模型的讨论,我想再次强调这一点:构建动态模型最简单的方法是识别和映射相关生产量变量的行为、变量变化的方式以及它们相互关联的方式。使用 iThink 程序提供的简化版本的约定和图标(存量、流量、转换器和连接器),我们可以分别映射每个变量的行为,然后将它们放在一个相互依赖的网络中。
To reiterate our early discussions about developing a dynamic model of a throughput process, I would like to re-emphasize the point that the simplest way to build a dynamic model is to identify and map the behavior of the relevant throughput variables, the manner in which the variables change, and the way they relate to one another. Using a simplified version of the conventions and icons provided by the iThink program — stocks, flows, converters, and connectors — we can map the behavior of each variable separately and then put them all together in a web of interde-pendencies.
以下示例代表使用 iThink 进行吞吐量建模的真实案例。1997 年,我收到一家著名电话公司的请求,希望他们能帮助克服其吞吐量系统中的一个关键挑战 — 现有结构无法满足快速增长的客户需求,无法满足互联网时代的要求。前所未有的需求导致吞吐量系统出现不可接受的故障水平。因此,客户投诉已经达到如此程度,以至于 FCC 被迫对该公司处以巨额罚款。
The following example represents a real case of throughput modeling using iThink. In 1997 I received a request from a prominent telephone company for help to overcome a critical challenge in their throughput system — the inability of the existing structure to serve the rapidly expanding customer demand to meet the requirements of the Internet era. Unprecedented demand had resulted in unacceptable levels of malfunctioning of the throughput system. Consequently, customer complaints had reached such a level that the FCC had been forced to impose crippling financial penalties on the company.
四项相互依赖的生产活动——安装、维修、维护和计划中的产能扩张——不仅受到客户群快速增长的影响和干扰,而且还受到将有限且过度劳累的技术资源分配给竞争活动的艰巨任务的影响和干扰。
The four interdependent throughput activities — installation, repair, maintenance, and planned capacity expansion — were not only influenced and disturbed by rapid growth of the customer base but also with the ever-difficult task of allocating the limited and overworked technical resources to competing activities.
组织流程的设计参数和特征基本上由主流文化或每个组织使用的范式的假设和要求定义。这四个组织流程相互依存且受价值驱动。它们共同定义了组织文化的关键属性。这些属性往往是默认产生的,而不是设计产生的。然而,一旦到位,它们在技术变革的起伏中仍能保持完整。
Design parameters and characteristics of organizational processes are basically defined by assumptions and imperatives of the dominant culture or the paradigm in use for each organization. The four organizational processes are very much interdependent and value driven. Together, they define critical attributes of the organizational culture. More often than not, these attributes are produced by default rather than design. Once in place, however, they remain intact during ups and downs of technological change.
另一方面,生产流程是技术驱动的。它们明确定义了在给定技术背景下组织的输出如何产生。生产流程针对每种输出进行独特设计,并不断变化和改进。
Throughput processes, on the other hand, are technologically driven. They explicitly define how the output of an organization is to be produced in the context of a given technology. Uniquely designed for each output, throughput processes are subject to continuous change and improvement.
由于生产量被更频繁地重新设计,新一代生产量设计很有可能与现有的更传统的组织流程不兼容。这是近年来大多数重组工作失败的主要原因,这一点已经得到证实。如果不适当考虑重新设计的生产量流程与现有秩序(即现有的组织流程)的兼容性,就无法有效实施重新设计的生产量流程。毋庸置疑,任何模型的实用性都取决于用于开发图标背后的操作公式的基本假设的有效性。
Since throughputs are redesigned more frequently, there is always a good chance those new generations of throughput designs will become incompatible with more traditional organizational processes already in place. This has been the major cause of the failures, already witnessed, in most re-engineering efforts of recent times. A redesigned throughput process cannot be effectively implemented without proper concern for its compatibility with the existing order — the organizational processes already in place. Usefulness of any model, needless to say, depends on the validity of the underlying assumptions used to develop the operating formulas behind the icons.
第七章 设计思维
Chapter Seven. Design Thinking
设计思维的意义在于,人类拥有创造不存在事物形象的独特能力。如果我们周围的一切都是设计出来的,却没有设计能力,那么人类文明将不复存在。设计、科学和艺术构成了人类不可思议的认知能力的三个维度。此外,设计思维还具有独特的特性,使其能够“通用化”。这意味着设计可以作为跨学科交流的载体,使其成为系统方法的核心。
The unique ability of human beings to create images of things that do not exist is what design thinking is all about. If everything around us had been designed without design capability we would not have a human civilization. Design, together with science and art, form the three dimensions of the incredible human cognitive ability. In addition, design thinking has a unique characteristic that makes it possible for it to be “universalized.” This means that design could be used as a vehicle to communicate across disciplines putting it at the core of systems methodology.
设计是选择,而不是预测未来。设计是选择的表现形式,而这种选择包含可取性元素。由于任何系统的性能本质上都是由设计驱动的,因此数量级的改进需要重新设计。设计还可以培养处理现实世界中定义不明确、结构不良或“棘手”问题的先天能力。设计是从不同的部分创建一个集成的整体。
To design is to choose rather than predict the future. Design is the vehicle by which choice is manifested, and this choice includes elements of desirability. Since performance of any system is essentially design-driven, an-order-of-magnitude improvement requires a redesign. Design also develops innate abilities in dealing with real-world, ill-defined, ill-structured, or “wicked” problems. To design is to create an integrated whole from differentiated parts.
在与阿科夫建立了 35 年的友谊、商业伙伴关系和密切合作之后,我想知道,在下面的表述中,他在哪里结束,而我又从哪里开始呢?
After 35 years of friendship, business partnership, and close collaboration with Ackoff, I wonder, in the following formulation, where does he end and where do I actually begin?
任何以创造、解决问题、选择和综合为任务的专业人士都与设计思维有关。从物理环境和人工制品到音乐(作曲)、哲学(探究系统的设计)以及政治和经济安排,各种领域都产生了许多精美的设计。一些伟大的思想家甚至将整个社会视为需要重新设计的系统。
Any professional whose task is to create, to dissolve problems, to choose, and to synthesize is involved with design thinking. Many beautiful designs have been produced in a variety of fields ranging from physical environments and artifacts to music (composition), philosophy (design of inquiring systems), and political and economic arrangements. Some great thinkers have even taken whole societies as systems to be redesigned.
我们周围的一切都是经过设计的。
Everything we have around us has been designed.
• 科学——寻找不同事物之间的相似之处
• Science — finding similarities among things that are different
• 艺术——在相似的事物中寻找差异
• Art — finding differences among things that are similar
• 设计——用不可行的部分创造可行的整体
• Design — creating feasible wholes from infeasible parts
设计思维就是人类创造形象的独特能力。在这种情况下,设计思维的独特优势在于产生新的替代方案。它超越了默认解决方案,寻找新的令人兴奋的可能性。它不是从现有的替代方案中选择“最佳”方案。现有方案中的选择通常具有一个或多个共同属性,这些属性基于参与者在类似情况下的先前经验产生的一组显式或隐式假设或约束。使用高级分析工具来帮助选择最佳替代方案的传统做法只会导致重复相同的已知行为模式,因为支配替代方案生成的基本假设仍未受到挑战。
The unique ability of human beings to create images is what design thinking is all about. In this context the distinct advantage of design thinking is to produce new alternatives. It goes beyond default solutions by looking for new exciting possibilities. It is not about selecting the “best” from the existing set of alternatives. The choices in the existing set usually share one or more properties based on an explicit or implicit set of assumptions or constraints produced by the actors' previous experiences with similar situations. The conventional practice of using advanced analytical tools to help select the best alternative will only result in repeating the same known pattern of behavior, since the underlying assumptions governing the generation of alternatives remain unchallenged.
设计任何东西都需要一个核心概念和对设计主题的基本理解。要设计一辆汽车,需要有汽车的概念,并了解最新技术和相关技术。要设计一个社会系统,需要对社会文化系统的性质有实际了解。在这种情况下,没有什么比一个好的操作理论更实用了。如果没有一个关于野兽本质和它做某事的原因的明确理论,人们就注定要一遍又一遍地重复同样的非解决方案。所有行动都先于一些关于现实的心理形象或理论。除了新生儿,没有人没有理论,无论理论多么粗糙和隐晦。那些声称自己没有理论的人要么希望别人毫无疑问地接受他们的意见,要么只是不知道他们默认有理论。不陷入理论迷宫并不意味着陷入另一个极端的盲目行动。只要行动背后的假设是明确的,就有机会从经验中学习并提高我们实践的质量。本书的第二部分详细介绍了有关社会文化系统本质的关键假设,因此,它是我们设计理论的一个组成部分。
To design anything requires a core concept and basic understanding of the subject to be designed. To design a car one needs to have a concept of a car and be knowledgeable about the state-of-the-art and the relevant technologies. To design a social system a practical knowledge about the nature of sociocultural systems is required. In this context nothing is more practical than a good operational theory. Without an explicit theory about the nature of the beast and the reasons why it does what it does, one would be condemned to keep repeating the same non-solutions all over again. All actions are preceded by some mental image, or theory, about the reality. Nobody, except perhaps a newborn child, is without a theory, no matter how crude and implicit. Those who claim that they are without one are either expecting others to accept their opinions without questions or are simply unaware that they have it by default. Not to get bogged down in a theoretical maze does not mean to fall into the other extreme of mindless action. As long as the assumptions underlying the action are explicit, there exists the chance to learn from experience and improve the quality of our practice. Part Two of this book covered in some detail the critical assumptions about the nature of sociocultural systems, therefore, it is an integral part of our theory of design.
设计过程的核心是整体思维的迭代过程。设计就是在给定的上下文中创建结构、功能和流程。直接用户反馈定义的上下文为设计过程提供了选择标准。需要强调的是,我们不能独立处理上下文、功能、结构和流程。我们需要使用迭代过程来保持它们之间的关系具有交互性和意义。
At the core of the design process is the iterative process of holistic thinking. To design is to create structure, functions, and processes in a given context. The context defined by direct user feedback provides the selection criteria for the design process. The point to emphasize is that we cannot deal with context, function, structure, and process independent from one another. We need to use an iterative process to keep the relationships among them interactive and meaningful.
首先,设计师必须停留在更高的抽象层次上,不要让迷失于细节的倾向分散他们以有趣的方式思考整体的能力。
To start, designers must stay at higher levels of abstraction, not letting the tendency to be lost in detail distract them from the ability to be playful in thinking about the whole.
在第一次迭代中,设计师将专注于开发系统所需的规格以取代现有秩序。首先要指定功能——输出或设计师希望系统对其所属的更大系统产生的预期影响。这意味着要了解背景,尤其是利益相关者的行为。他们是谁,他们的兴趣是什么?他们控制哪些变量,影响哪些变量?然后,设计师将尝试理解和定义许多通常不同的预期规格之间的相互依赖关系。他们将找出哪些初始规格是兼容和相互加强的,哪些是互补和平衡的,哪些是相互冲突的。他们还将尝试重新概念化任何相互冲突的要求以消除差异。在第二次迭代中,设计师将让他们的想象力接管,创建可能产生所需输出的可能结构和过程的抽象心理图像。然后他们需要暂停并将选定的图像综合成一个猜想(仅定义主要功能的有凝聚力的整体的粗略近似)、基本结构和吞吐量过程的轮廓。
With the first iteration designers will concentrate on developing the desired specifications of the system to replace the existing order. Start by specifying the function — the outputs or the desired impact designers would like the system to have on the larger system of which it is a part. This means understanding the context, especially the behavior of the stakeholders. Who are they and what is their interest? Which variables do they control and which ones do they influence? Designers then will try to understand and define the interdependencies among the many and often diverse desired specifications. They will find out which initial specifications are compatible and reinforcing, which ones are complementary and counterbalancing, and which ones are in conflict. They will also try to reconceptualize any conflicting requirements to dissolve the differences. In the second iteration, designers will let their imaginations take over to create abstract mental images of possible structures and processes that potentially would produce the desired outputs. Then they need to pause and synthesize the selected images into a conjecture (rough approximation of a cohesive whole that only defines primary functions), basic structure, and the outline of the throughput process.
在第三次迭代中,他们将制作一个符号设计模型,用于与设计本身和利益相关者进行沟通,以达成满足所有关注点的共识。下一次迭代将把这个初始粗略设计转化为所需的下一代系统。在连续的迭代中,在测试了操作可行性之后,更多的细节和特殊性被纳入设计中。如果不彻底了解其动态行为,任何设计都不会可行。了解我们设计的意外后果,并能够映射正反馈和负反馈回路的行为以捕捉控制系统,使得操作思维成为我们设计理论的一个关键组成部分。
In the third iteration, they will make a symbolic model of the design to be used to communicate with the design itself and with the stakeholders to achieve consensus that satisfies all concerns. The next iteration will convert this initial rough design into the desired next generation of the system. In successive iterations, after testing for operational viability, more detail and specificity are incorporated into the design. No design will be viable without a thorough understanding of its dynamic behavior. Understanding unintended consequences of our design and ability to map the behavior of positive and negative feedback loops to capture the control system makes operational thinking a critical component of our design theory.
设计是一种直觉过程,即从杂乱无章的不可行部分中创造出令人兴奋的可行整体。设计是关于选择一个理想的未来,并发明实现它的方法。设计培养了处理现实世界中定义不明确、结构不良或“棘手”问题的先天能力。
Design is an intuitive process of creating exciting feasible wholes from messy infeasible parts. It is about selecting a desired future and inventing the ways to bring it about. Design develops innate abilities in dealing with real-world, ill-defined, ill-structured, or “wicked” problems.
以下是设计思维的十个操作原则:
Here are ten operating principles of design thinking:
1. 脱离了背景,任何问题或解决方案都是无效的。
1. No problem or solution is valid free of context.
2. 系统性能本质上是由设计驱动的。数量级的改进需要重新设计。
2. Performance of a system is essentially design-driven. An order of magnitude improvement requires a redesign.
3. 设计是选择,而不是预测未来。选择包含可取性的因素。
3. To design is to choose rather than predict the future. The choice includes elements of desirability.
4. 重新设计时应始终处理隐式和显式函数。忽略隐式函数会导致手术成功但患者死亡的情况。
4. A redesign should always deal with both implicit and explicit functions. Ignoring implicit functions would result in a situation where the operation was successful but the patient died.
6. 设计思维涉及概念抽象和主动实验。它既是一门艺术,也是一门科学。系统设计师应该具备抽象能力和敏感性,以被创意的力量所打动。
6. Design thinking involves conceptual abstraction and active experimentation. It is as much an art as a science. A system designer should have the capacity for abstraction and sensitivity to be moved by the power of an idea.
7. 设计文化更多地依赖非语言模式,而非语言、数字和文学的思维和交流方式。草图是一种产生“反思性推测”的手段,因此也是与设计主体对话的一种方式。
7. Design culture relies not so much on verbal, numerical, and literary modes of thinking and communicating, but on nonverbal modes. Sketches are a means of producing “reflective conjecture” and thus a dialog with the design subject.
8. 设计社会系统是为了清晰明确地描绘出所期望的结果。它应该消除人们对未知事物的恐惧。母性言论无法做到这一点。
8. To design a social system is to produce a clear and explicit image of the desired outcome. It should remove the fear of the unknown. Motherhood statements will not do it.
9. 设计是创新的工具。创新始于质疑神圣的假设,否定普遍接受的限制,以对技术和市场机会进行有趣的思考。
9. Design is the instrument of innovation. Innovation starts by questioning the sacred assumptions and denying the commonly accepted constraints with playful reflections on technology and market opportunities.
这里有必要回顾一下多维性原理,以及积分和微分是一对互补的讨论。它们相互依赖,以至于任何给定的微分水平都有相应的积分水平;否则,系统将陷入混乱的复杂状态。
It would be timely here to recall the principle of multidimensionality and the discussion that integration and differentiation form a complementary pair. Their interdependency is such that for any given level of differentiation there is a corresponding level of integration; otherwise, the system will fall into a state of chaotic complexity.
不幸的是,每个学科的亚专业化程度不断提高,已经达到了这样的水平,以至于我们产生了一个亚文化的集合,这些亚文化甚至无法在同一学科内进行交流,更不用说跨学科交流了。作为一种现代科学文化,我们在没有注意到整合的需要的情况下进行了分化。难怪我们在许多领域都失去了连接点的能力。尽管所有人都声称相反,但大多数当代组织只是由分化的职能部门组成的孤岛——每个部门都具有非常高的专业水平——没有任何真正的整合手段。我们天真地认为协调就是整合。我们错误地推断,如果几个职能部门向一个协调的老板汇报,他/她就能将它们整合成一个新兴的整体,并正确地连接各个点。最近的金融危机、房地产泡沫,以及我们在教育、移民和医疗保健系统方面面临的明显混乱,仅举几例,就足以证明我们的整合努力已经失败。
Unfortunately, the increasing amount of subspecialization in every discipline has reached such a level that we have produced an aggregate of subcultures that are not even capable of communicating within the same discipline let alone across disciplines. As a modern scientific culture, we have differentiated without paying any attention to the need for integration. It is no wonder we have lost the ability to connect the dots in a host of many arenas. Despite all claims to the contrary, most contemporary organizations are merely collections of silos of differentiated functional departments — each with very high levels of expertise — without any real means of integration among them. We have naively assumed that coordination is the same as integration. We have erroneously reasoned that if several functions report to a coordinating boss he/she will be able to integrate them into the emerging whole and properly connect the dots. The recent financial crisis, housing bubble, and the obvious messes we are facing in education, immigration, and health-care systems, just to name a few, should provide enough evidence to convince us that our integrative efforts have been a failure.
组织中专业部分无法整合使得以下关于模块化设计的讨论显得尤为重要。模块化既是设计复杂系统的绝佳工具,也是在操作层面进行功能集成的完美机制,也是在社会系统架构层面创建动态结构的有效格式。
The failure to integrate specialized parts of the organization makes the following discussion of modular design especially important. Modularity is both a great vehicle for designing complex systems and a perfect mechanism for functional integration at operational levels as well as an effective format to create dynamic structure at architectural levels of social systems.
模块是架构中的一个元素,其设计方式使其具有很强的内部相互依赖性(完全功能集成)和很弱或最小的外部依赖性和交互性。然后,这个完全集成的模块连接到一个特定的平台,该平台旨在简化模块、其主机平台和系统其余部分之间的通信或交互。因此,模块是一种集成工具,用于促进和管理差异化功能之间的所有内部交互,以产生一个新兴的整体(信号或结果),并将其传输或转移到模块所属系统的外部元素。
A module is an element in the architecture that is designed in such a way that it has strong internal interdependency (full functional integration) and weak or a minimum external dependencies and interactions. This fully integrated module is then connected to a specific platform designed to simplify the communications or interactions between the modules, its host platform, and the rest of the system. A module, therefore, is an integrative vehicle to facilitate and manage all of the internal interactions among the differentiated functions to produce an emergent whole (a signal or an outcome) to be transmitted or transferred to external elements of the system of which the module is a part.
以下示例有助于解释模块化设计的复杂性,并回答有关其设置的问题。我的一个客户从事设计定制分离装置,为电子行业的客户净化水源的业务。该公司的核心是工程部门,由总工程师领导。机械工程、电气工程、化学工程和工艺工程部门向总工程师汇报。四个工程部门分别有自己的总工程师以及一名副总工程师、一名高级工程师和几名实际负责这项工作的初级工程师。总工程师是第一个收到公司销售部门获得的客户订单的人,一旦总工程师批准订单,设计过程就开始了。该过程涉及所有四个部门,但顺序相继。首先将订单转交给首席化学工程师,然后首席化学工程师将其转发给副首席化学工程师,然后转交给高级工程师,最终由高级工程师从一名初级化学工程师中挑选出一名来启动设计。初级化学工程师完成其部分设计后,开始将工作向上级转交给高级工程师,然后是副总工程师,最后是首席化学工程师,首席化学工程师将批准的设计转交给首席工艺工程师。整个模式随后在工艺、电气和机械工程部门重复。最终设计完成后,将其返回会计和销售组进行定价和成本计算。一旦最终预算定价并与客户分享,客户与公司销售和工程团队之间的来回价格谈判过程就开始了。
The following example should help explain the intricacies of modular design and answer questions regarding its setup. A client of mine was in the business of designing custom-made separation units to purify water for customers in the electronics industry. The company's core was its engineering division, which was headed by the chief engineer. Reporting to the chief engineer were the mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, chemical engineering, and process engineering departments. Each of the four engineering departments in turn had its own chief engineer as well as a deputy chief, a senior engineer, and a few junior engineers who actually did the work. The chief engineer was the first to receive a client order secured by the company's sales department, and once the chief approved the order, the design process began. The process involved all four departments but in a successive order. It began by transferring the order to the chief chemical engineer, who then forwarded it to the deputy chief chemical engineer, and then down to the senior engineer who finally selected one of the junior chemical engineers to initiate the design. The junior chemical engineer, upon completing his part of the design, began the ascending order of forwarding his work back up the chain to the senior engineer, followed by the deputy chief, and finally the chief chemical engineer, who then transferred the approved design to the chief process engineer. The whole pattern was then repeated in the process, electrical, and mechanical engineering departments. When the final design was completed, it was then returned to the accounting and sales group for pricing and cost calculations. Once the final budget was priced and shared with the client, the back and forth process of price negotiations between the client and the company's sales and engineering teams began.
这个过程通常需要大约六到八个月才能完成,预计成本约为 500,000 美元。随着时间的推移,每个投标的时间表和相关成本都以每年 5% 的速度增长,这成为公司与客户之间摩擦的主要根源。
This process usually took about six to eight months to complete at an estimated cost of around $500,000. Over time, both the timetable and the associated costs surrounding each bid increased at an annual rate of 5% and this was becoming a major source of friction between the company and its customers.
回顾情况后,我们显然需要模块化设计。但传统文化具有强大的功能结构,尚未准备好进行模块化设计所需的那种变革。为了减少变革阻力,我们提出了一个简单的实验,看看公司是否有其他替代流程可以考虑,以降低成本并改善时间安排。实验是创建一个学习小组,其中包括四名初级工程师,每个工程部门一名,以及一名成本会计和一名销售部门的销售工程师。要求学习小组的每个成员向团队的其他成员传授他/她所执行职能的本质和关键方面,更具体地说,每个定义变量如何影响最终结果。学习小组应在自己的时间内完成这项任务,以防止这项练习影响他们目前的工作。作为奖励,如果学习小组的所有成员都证明他们已经从彼此那里学到了此设计流程的所有功能和关键问题并成功完成了分配的项目,团队的每个成员都将获得 10,000 美元的加薪。
After reviewing the situation it was obvious that we needed a modular design. But the traditional culture with its strong functional structure was not ready for the kind of change that modular design requires. To reduce resistance to change, we proposed a simple experiment to see if there were other alternative processes the company could consider to reduce cost and improve timing. The experiment was to create a learning cell involving four junior engineers, one from each of the engineering divisions, in addition to a cost accountant and a sales engineer from the sales department. Each member of the learning cell was asked to teach the remaining members of the team the essence and critical aspects of the functions he/she performed, and more specifically how each one of the defining variables impacted the final result. The learning cell was to manage this task on their own time in an effort to prevent this exercise from affecting their present work. As an incentive, each member of the team was promised a $10,000 salary increase if all of the members of the learning cell demonstrated that they had learned all of the functions and critical concerns of this design process from one another and successfully finished an assigned project.
三个月后,该小组准备接受他们的第一个项目。当他们接到第一个项目时,该模块的所有六名成员都与客户一起会面,以团队的形式亲自了解客户的运营、主要关注点、目标和要求。
After three months, the group was ready to accept their first project. When they received their first project, all six members of the module met with the client together to learn about its operations, major concerns, objectives, and requirements firsthand and as a team.
此次访问后,模块化设计团队仅用了四周时间就完成了设计的第一版。经过小幅修改后,该设计得到了客户批准,并在另一周内完成。总成本为 120,000 美元,总耗时为六周。该实验重复了两次,结果相似,因此为整个组织转向模块化设计铺平了道路。
It took the modular design team only four weeks after this visit to produce the first iteration of their design. This design, with small modification, was approved by the client and finalized in another week. Total cost was $120,000 and total time was six weeks. This experiment was duplicated twice with similar results, and as such paved the way for the entire organization to convert to a modular design.
我们说过,自组织、有目的的社会文化系统是自我进化的。它们不只是适应环境,而是与环境共同进化。它们可以随着时间推移而改变互动规则。然而,像所有生命系统一样,它们表现出趋向于预先定义的秩序的倾向。它们的行为受一种隐含的共同形象的引导。它们倾向于非常接近和再现一种给定的存在模式。要改变这种行为模式,需要改变隐含的共同形象(组织吸引子)。
We have said that self-organizing, purposeful, sociocultural systems are self-evolving. They do not simply adapt to their environments but co-evolve with them. They can change the rules of interaction as they evolve over time. However, like all living systems, they exhibit a tendency toward a predefined order. Their behavior is guided by an implicit, shared image. They tend to approximate and reproduce a given pattern of existence very closely. To change this pattern of behavior the implicit shared image (the organizing attractor) needs to be changed.
共享形象本身就是一个复杂的设计,它处于变革过程的核心。一旦形成,它就充当着一个过滤器,因此任何旨在产生变革的行动的成功都取决于它渗透和修改共享形象的程度。
The shared image, itself a complex design, stands at the center of the process of change. Once formed it acts as a filter so that success of any action intended to produce change invariably depends on the degree it penetrates and modifies this shared image.
阿科夫的系统方法论瞄准了这一概念的核心。其最终目标是用更理想的未来共享形象取代导致秩序失常的扭曲“共享形象”。在互动管理研究所 INTERACT 工作了几十年,我们利用互动设计流程重新设计扭曲的共享形象,并在许多社会系统的行为模式中产生了持久的变化。
Ackoff's systems methodology aims at the core of this conception. Its ultimate objective is to replace the distorted “shared image” responsible for regenerating a pattern of malfunctioning order with a shared image of a more desirable future. Working together for decades in INTERACT, the Institute for Interactive Management, we have used the interactive design process to redesign distorted shared images and to produce a lasting change in the behavioral pattern of many social systems.
设计师通过实施他们最激动人心的未来形象——下一代系统的设计——来取代现有秩序。明确而激动人心的未来设计/形象是变革的有力工具。然后通过逐次逼近(发明缩小实际状态和期望状态之间差距的方法)来实现理想的未来。
Designers replace the existing order by operationalizing their most exciting image of the future — the design of the next generation of the system. An explicit and exciting design/image of the future is a powerful instrument of change. The desired future is then realized by successive approximation (inventing the ways to close the gap between actual and desired states).
然而,这种自命不凡、大胆的乐观主义是基于以下假设的:
This pretentious and daring optimism, however, is based on the following assumptions:
• 理解共享形象更多的是出于兴奋而不是逻辑。令人兴奋的未来形象加上人类本能的分享欲望是变革的有力工具。这就是为什么成员(利益相关者)积极参与设计是交互式设计的基本、不妥协的运作原则。
• Penetrating the shared image is more a question of excitement than logic. An exciting image of the future coupled with the instinctive human desire to share is a powerful instrument of change. This is why active participation of members (stakeholders) in producing a design is the fundamental, uncompromising operating principle of interactive design.
• 挑战人们之间既定的关系并非易事。然而,如果人们能够参与改变,他们就更有可能接受改变。
• Challenging the established relationships among people is not an easy proposition. However, people are more likely to accept a change if they had a hand in shaping it.
• 学习和理解一个系统的最佳方式是重新设计它。
• The best way to learn and understand a system is to redesign it.
传统上,定义问题有三种方式。最常见的方式是将问题定义为偏离规范的行为。除了难以定义社会文化系统中的“规范”之外,这种方式的主要缺点是强化现有秩序。尽管人们强烈怀疑现有秩序可能是问题的根源,但人们通常还是会这样做。一个简单的例子就是教育领域的“回归基础”运动。
Traditionally, there are three ways to define a problem. The most common approach defines problems as deviations from the norm. The major shortcoming of this approach, besides the difficulty in defining the “norm” in a sociocultural system, is to reinforce the existing order. This is usually done despite strong suspicion that the existing order might be the source of the problem. A simple example is the “back to basics” movement in education.
第三种,也许是最难的一种定义问题的方式,就是倾向于用我们已有的解决方案来定义问题。现有的解决方案让我们看不到现实,所以我们只接受问题的表面意义。运筹学家可能会认为某种情况是分配问题,而会计师可能会认为这是现金流问题,这并不奇怪。
The third, and perhaps the most obstructive, way to define a problem is the tendency to define it in terms of the solution we already have. Existing solutions conveniently shield us from seeing the reality, so we accept the problem at face value. Not surprisingly, an operations researcher may see a situation as an allocation problem, while an accountant may consider it a cash flow problem.
理想化的基本思想是逆向规划的概念。它首先假设系统在一夜之间被摧毁,设计师有机会从头开始重新创建下一代系统。新设计仅受三个约束:(1)技术可行性,(2)操作可行性,以及(3)学习和适应。
The basic idea of idealization is the notion of backward planning. It starts with the assumption that the system has been destroyed overnight and that the designers have been given the opportunity to re-create the next generation of the system from a clean slate. The new design is subject to only three constraints: (1) technological feasibility, (2) operational viability, and (3) learning and adaptation.
尽管我们的想法过于理想化,但我们所面对的并不是科幻小说。我们的设计只能利用目前可用的技术。然而,除了了解最新技术之外,交互设计师也不回避积极实验。好的设计会使用一个平台,它不仅允许实验,而且还能够将新技术与新功能结合起来,而无需额外的界面或昂贵的修补过程。
Although idealizing, we are not dealing with science fiction. Our design can only utilize technologies that are currently available. Nevertheless, in addition to knowing the state-of-the-art, interactive designers do not shy away from active experimentation. Good designs would use a platform that not only permits experimentations but also would be able to incorporate technologies with new functionality without requiring an additional interface or the costly patching process.
学习源自于对预期结果与实际结果不一致的惊讶。如果一个人理解了不匹配的原因(诊断),并且能够采取某种方式避免将来出现不匹配的情况(处方),那么他就学会了。
Learning results from being surprised by detecting a mismatch between what was expected to happen and what actually did happen. If one understands why the mismatch occurred (diagnosis) and is able to do things in a way that avoids a mismatch in the future (prescription), one has learned.
为了首先发现不匹配,需要一个正式的流程来记录预期结果。该系统仅用于重大决策,并将记录以下信息:
To detect a mismatch in the first place, a formal process is needed to record expected outcomes. This system will be used only for major decisions and will record the following information:
• 做出该决定的假设
• The assumptions on which the decision was made
• 绩效指标
• Performance indicators
• 预期成果
• The expected outcome(s)
尽管造成不匹配的原因是多种多样的,但主要可以分为以下四类:
Although reasons for mismatches are infinite, they fall into one of the following four categories:
1. 错误数据
1. Wrong data
2. 错误的实施
2. Wrong implementations
3.错误的决定
3. Wrong decision
4. 改变环境
4. Changed environment
因此,在诊断过程中,必须检查所有四个类别:数据、决策、实施和环境条件。
Therefore, during a diagnosis, all four categories must be checked: the data, the decision, the implementation, and the environmental condition.
如果学习系统包含一个预警系统,在问题发生之前要求采取纠正措施,那么它将是最有效的。这样的系统将持续监控决策所依据的假设的有效性,以及实施过程和中间结果。
A learning system will be most effective if it includes an early warning system that calls for corrective action before the problem has occurred. Such a system will continuously monitor the validity of the assumptions on which the decision was made, as well as the implementation process and intermediate results.
交互式设计过程包括三个步骤:选择目的、指定系统所需属性、设计理想寻求系统。
The interactive design process has three steps: selecting the purpose, specifying desired properties of the system, and designing the ideal-seeking system.
正如交互设计的理想化阶段是迭代的,实现阶段也是迭代的,逐步逼近是实现理想设计的核心。
Just as the idealization phase of interactive design is iterative, so is the realization phase. Successive approximation is at the core of realizing an ideal design.
设计的实现必须在现实环境中进行。当我们从美梦中醒来时,我们会发现怪物还活着,正盯着我们。然而,下一代系统的形象实在太令人兴奋了,让人无法释怀。因此,我们必须找到一种方法来尽可能多地实现我们的设计。为此,我们需要确定所有会阻碍我们实现所需设计的限制。
The realization of the design has to take place in a real-world environment. When we wake up from the beautiful dream we will find the monster very alive and staring right in our face. However, the image of the next generation of the system is just too exciting to let go. Therefore, we must find a way to implement as much of our design as we possibly can. To do so we need to identify all of the constraints that are going to prevent us from getting our desired design implemented.
现有框架内无法消除 I 类约束。此类约束要求对设计进行修改和改进,以创建可实施的目标设计。目标 I 将是无约束设计的首次近似。如有必要,后续近似将确定所需设计的目标 II 和目标 III 代。持续监控 I 类约束至关重要,这样一旦消除这些约束,目标设计就可以进一步近似理想设计。显然,实现工作不会是一次性的。对期望状态的连续近似构成了从当前现实到期望未来的转变的演进过程。在实现期望设计之前,可能需要多次尝试。
Type I constraints cannot be removed within the existing framework. Such constraints would require revisions and improvisations of the design to create a target design capable of being implemented. Target I would be the first approximation of the unconstrained design. If necessary, subsequent approximations will identify target II and target III generations of the desired design. It is critical that type I constraints be continuously monitored so that the target design can further approximate the idealized design as soon as these constraints are removed. Clearly, the realization effort will not be a one-time proposition. Successive approximations of the desired state make up the evolutionary process by which the transformation from current reality to desired future is affected. It may take a number of attempts before the desired design is implemented.
第二类约束主要涉及普遍约束,这些约束的消除需要大量的准备工作。它们包括耗费时间和资源的活动,需要知识和管理才能。这些相互关联的活动共同定义了旨在将现有系统转换为目标设计的战略计划。战略计划通常是变革工作中最耗时和资源最密集的部分。出于控制目的,必须明确记录并持续监控有关所选行动方案的所有关键假设和期望。
Type II constraints are essentially concerned with universal constraints whose removal will require extensive preparations. They consist of activities that consume time and resources and require knowledge and management talent. These interrelated activities together define the strategic plan that aims at converting the existing system to the target design. The strategic plan usually is the most time-consuming and resource-intensive part of the change effort. For control purposes, all critical assumptions and expectations about the selected course of actions must be explicitly recorded and continuously monitored.
第三类约束本质上是行为方面的。推销理念、消除变革阻力、确保接受、培养支持和扩大所有权是针对自我施加的约束的努力之一。如果没有先前的信任和承诺基础,系统将拒绝进行计划中的转型。这些强化约束加在一起,代表了组织的文化默认,一直在重现当前的混乱局面。面对第三类约束时,解散“二阶机器”是实现设计的最关键阶段。
Type III constraints are essentially behavioral in nature. Selling the idea, removing resistance to change, ensuring acceptance, cultivating support, and expanding ownership are among the efforts targeted at constraints that are self-imposed. Without a prior foundation of trust and commitment, the system would simply refuse to undergo the planned transformation. These reinforcing constraints, taken together, represent the cultural default of the organization that has been reproducing the current mess all along. When confronting type III constraints, dissolving the “second-order machine” is the most critical phase of realizing the design.
重新设计社会系统,如果在关键参与者的积极参与下进行,是一个不可逆转的重新设计心理形象的过程。其影响是长期的,远远超过立即实施设计文件的价值。理想化设计的重要成果之一是看到隧道尽头的光明。这盏灯充当指引,并在机会出现时确定未来干预的方向。然而,如果即使是没有约束的设计也无法产生预期的结果,那么很可能问题出在环境中,变革的重点应该向外转移。
Redesigning social systems, if done with active participation of critical actors, is an irreversible process of redesigning mental images. Its impact is long term and far exceeds the value of immediate implementation of the design document. One of the important outcomes of an idealized design is to see the light at the end of the tunnel. This light acts as a guide and defines the direction for future interventions as soon as opportunities arise. However, if even a design with no constraints cannot produce a desired outcome then, most probably, problems lie in the environment and the focus of change should be directed outward.
因此,成功的文化转型将涉及 (1) 通过公开讨论和对话明确企业生活的基本假设,以及 (2) 经过严格审查,就当过时、误导和/或彻头彻尾错误的默认设置保持不变时会发生什么情况达成共识。这个过程是一种高水平的社会学习和忘却。只有通过发现和解释我们根深蒂固的假设,我们才能以新的方式看待自己。这种体验令人解放,因为它使我们能够重新评估我们生活的目的和历程,并由此能够对我们喜欢的未来做出明智的选择。
Accordingly, successful cultural transformation will involve (1) making the underlying assumptions about corporate life explicit through public discourse and dialog and (2) gaining, after critical examination, a shared understanding of what can happen when defaults that are outmoded, misguided, and/or downright fallacious are left unchanged. The process is a high-level social learning and unlearning. Only by the very act of discovering and interpreting our deep-seated assumptions can we see ourselves in a new way. The experience is liberating because it empowers us to reassess the purpose and the course of our lives and, through that, be able to exercise informed choice over our preferred future.
例如,在一次医疗保健系统的设计经历中,我发现一套占主导地位的简单组织假设(例如护士只向护士报告,医生只向医生报告,或者整合等同于统一性)是该系统混乱的核心。坦诚、开放、深入的小组讨论这些假设对医疗保健系统行为的相关性和后果是拆除二阶机器和实施目标设计的第一步。
For example, in a design experience with a health-care system, I found that a dominant set of simple organizing assumptions (such as nurses report only to nurses, doctors report only to doctors, or integration is synonymous with uniformity) was at the core of the system's mess. A candid, open, and in-depth group discussion of the relevance and the consequences of these assumptions for the behavior of the heath-care system was the first step toward dismantling the second-order machine and implementing the target design.
如果没有合理有效的衡量和奖励制度,任何设计都不可能成功。获胜是有趣的;要获胜,我们必须记分,而我们记分的方式决定了游戏的胜负。如果人们希望加入一个团体,那么该团体评估其成员行为的标准对个人的行为方式有着深远的影响。
No design has any chance of success without a reasonable and effective measurement and reward system. Winning is fun; to win we have to keep score, and the way we keep the score defines the game. To the extent that membership in a group is desired, the criteria by which the group evaluates the behavior of its members have a profound effect on the manner in which individuals conduct themselves.
我们都太清楚如何玩零和游戏了。我们知道如何以牺牲那里为代价赢得这里,或者以牺牲明天为代价获得今天的成功。从生物学思维的角度来看,我们都学会了如何通过破坏我们的集体生存能力来利用我们的环境。
We all know too well how to play a zero-sum game. We know how one can win here at the expense of there, or succeed today at the cost of tomorrow. In the context of biological thinking, we all have learned how to exploit our environment by undermining our collective viability.
我们认为,如果没有绩效标准,即满足某个成员的需求和愿望取决于更大系统的需求的满足,反之亦然,就不可能实现多层次目的系统的有效整合。
We have argued that effective integration of multilevel purposeful systems cannot be achieved without performance criteria that make fulfillment of a member's needs and desires dependent on fulfillment of the larger system's needs, and vice versa.
换言之,个人为自身利益而做出的努力应该随着他们为更高层次系统的需求做出的贡献程度而增强,而他们是更高层次系统的成员。这将改变行为者的成功衡量标准和各种活动的相对优势,有利于那些满足两个层次要求的活动。
In other words, individuals' efforts for their own gain should be enhanced by the degree of contribution they make toward the needs of the higher system, of which they are willing members. This would change the measure of success and relative advantage of various activities for the actors in favor of those activities that satisfy the requirement of both levels.
考虑以下简单的交换系统。一个生产单位消耗其环境中的稀缺资源;作为回报,它生产出部分满足该环境需求的产出(商品或服务)。假设是,只要生产出的总产出价值大于或等于其消耗的投入的总价值,该单位就会生存下去。由“美元投票”决定的定价系统被认为是确定生产和分配优先级的可靠且充分的标准。
Consider the following simple exchange system. A productive unit consumes the scarce resources of its environment; in return, it produces outputs (goods or services) that partially fulfill the needs of that environment. The assumption is that the unit will survive as long as the total value of the outputs produced is greater than or equal to the total value of the inputs it consumes. The pricing system determined by “dollar votes” is supposed to be a reliable and sufficient criterion for determining production and distribution priorities.
如果 (1) 美元投票分配更公平,并且 (2) 最终价格不受操纵,这一假设或许成立。然而,价格控制或政府保护等因素使得服务的实际成本远高于预期。换句话说,投入以较低的价格从环境中购买,而产出(以传统会计方法衡量)看起来比实际更有价值。
This supposition might be tenable if (1) dollar votes were distributed more equitably and (2) end prices were not manipulated. However, factors such as price control or government protection make the actual cost of service much higher than perceived. In other words, inputs are purchased from the environment at a lower price, and outputs (measured by the classical accounting method) are made to look more valuable than they really are.
以下方案是衡量国家层面上每项主要经济活动的实际成本和收益的简化版本。它通过增强其分配功能来补充市场经济的生产力。该模型记录了那些缺乏美元投票来表达其需求的成员的需求。它还明确将财富分配(支付的工资)视为社会服务。
The following scheme is a simplified version of an attempt to measure the actual costs and benefits of each major economic activity as perceived on the national level. It complements the productive strength of a market economy by enhancing its allocation function. The model registers the needs of those members who lack the dollar vote to register their needs. It also explicitly values the distribution of wealth (salaries paid) as social service.
一旦计算出贡献率,新的社会计算的理念就是奖励社会贡献更高的活动。假设某个生产单位生产的面包贡献率为 2,但投资回报率低至 8%(因为消费阶层的购买力较弱)。另一方面,假设另一个单位生产的溜溜球贡献率为 1,但投资回报率为 18%。因此,我们的激励制度应该能够改变相对投资回报率,使之有利于面包。通过综合协调地应用众所周知的工具,例如差异化贷款结构、差异化利率结构和差异化税收结构,可以克服这一问题。根据贡献率(根据上表计算),可以为每项主要经济活动分配不同的贷款权益比率、不同的利率和不同的税率。确定稀缺性和需求系数的方法基于逐次逼近。然而,初始的原始系数会定期修改和更新,以反映进一步的学习。
Once the contribution ratio is calculated, the idea of a new social calculus would be to reward activities with higher social contributions. Suppose a certain productive unit produces bread with a contribution ratio of 2, but with a low rate of return on investment of 8% (because of the weak purchasing power of the consuming class). On the other hand, suppose another unit produces yo-yos with a contribution ratio of 1, but with a rate of return on investment of 18%. Accordingly, our incentive system ought to be able to change the relative rates of return on investment in favor of bread. The problem can be overcome with an integrated and coordinated application of well-known tools such as a differentiated loan structure, a differentiated interest rate structure, and a differentiated tax structure. Depending on the contribution ratios (computed from the previous table), a different loan equity ratio, a different interest rate, and a different tax rate can be assigned to each major economic activity. The method of determining scarcity and need coefficients is based on successive approximation. The initial raw coefficients, however, are revised and updated regularly to reflect further learning.
主流组织理论都隐含地假设,完全理性的微观决策会自动产生完全理性的宏观条件。如果不存在一系列不相容的绩效标准(如成本中心、收入中心和间接费用中心),从而导致组织中同等单位之间的结构性冲突,那么这可能是可以接受的。
Major organizational theories have implicitly assumed that perfectly rational micro-decisions would automatically produce perfectly rational macro-conditions. This might have been acceptable if a whole range of incompatible performance criteria did not exist, such as a cost center, a revenue center, and an overhead center, producing structural conflicts among peer units in the organization.
原因很简单:这种设计违反了基本的系统原则。孤立地对相互依赖的变量集的每个部分进行次优化不会导致整个系统的优化。成本最小化和收入最大化这两个目标单独来看会导致系统内部的基本矛盾。为了实现收入最大化,销售人员宁愿增加产品种类、增加定制功能、在短时间内更改交货时间表等等。另一方面,通过标准化生产流程可以更轻松地实现生产成本的最小化。这意味着减少产品数量并制定长期生产计划。因此,基本矛盾出现了:营销的最佳答案是以牺牲制造为代价的,反之亦然。
The reason for this is simple: this design violates a basic systemic principle. Suboptimization of each part of an interdependent set of variables in isolation will not lead to optimization of the system as a whole. The two objectives of cost minimization and revenue maximization, taken independently, lead to a basic contradiction within the system. To maximize revenue, sales would prefer to increase the variety of products, add customized features, change delivery schedules on short notice, and so on. Minimization of cost of production, on the other hand, can be achieved more easily by standardizing the production process. This means reducing the number of products and making long-run production schedules. Thus, the basic contradiction emerges: the best answer for marketing comes at the expense of manufacturing, and vice versa.
讽刺的是,这种设置在当今组织中发挥作用的唯一原因是绩效标准没有得到认真对待。(这是具有目的性部件的系统相对于机械和有机系统的主要优势。机械系统绝不能容忍这种不兼容性。)
Ironically, the only reason this setup works at all in today's organizations is that the performance criteria are not taken seriously. (This is the major advantage systems with purposeful parts have over mechanical and organic systems. Such incompatibility could never be tolerated in a mechanical system.)
大多数公司针对此问题采取的通常解决方案是妥协。两个中心的上级主管决定在特定时间哪一套标准应优先于另一套标准。一个领域可能获得的收益可能被另一个领域的损失所抵消。
The usual solution that most corporations adopt for this problem is to compromise. The higher level authority over both centers determines which set of criteria should dominate the other at any particular time. The possible gain in one area might be more than offset by the loss in the other.
考虑一下这两种设计在处理交货计划灵活性方面的区别。灵活性对一些愿意支付一定溢价的用户来说是一种价值。对于成本中心来说,这种溢价毫无价值。对成本中心来说,唯一重要的是生产计划的改变会增加成本。由于成本中心与收入无关,即使灵活性会给整个公司带来正的净值,它也会抵制灵活性。此外,由于成本转移是基于平均成本而不是边际成本,因此无法区分需要灵活性(或不同程度的灵活性)的用户和不需要灵活性的用户;两者的平均成本相同。
Consider the difference in how the two designs handle flexibility of delivery schedules. Flexibility is a value to some users who are willing to pay a certain premium. For a cost center, this premium has no value whatsoever. The only thing important to the cost center is that a change in production schedules will increase the cost. Since it is not concerned with revenues, the cost center will resist flexibility even when it results in positive net value to the corporation as a whole. Furthermore, since transfer of costs is based on average cost rather than marginal cost, there can be no distinction between users who demand flexibility (or various degrees of it) and those who do not; average cost is the same for both.
另一方面,利润中心则以边际成本与边际收益为基础来审视每个机会。客户愿意为额外服务支付的价格与供应商必须承担的边际成本相平衡。
A profit center, on the other hand, examines each opportunity on a marginal cost versus marginal revenue basis. The price that the customer is willing to pay for the additional service is balanced against the marginal cost that the supplier will have to incur.
成本中心本能地抵制营销要求的任何运营变更,而利润中心则期待机会增加其对系统的净贡献。
While a cost center is instinctively resistant to any change of operations requested by marketing, a profit center looks forward to opportunities to increase its net contribution to the system.
请注意,在利润中心设计中,一个部门可能仍能以牺牲另一个部门为代价而获益。但关键的区别在于,现在有可能实现双赢局面。生产和营销都可以从满足客户需求中获益,更重要的是,绩效标准是兼容的。请注意,绩效标准的统一性虽然是可取的,但并非必要;重点是兼容性。换句话说,绩效标准的设计必须确保一个部分的成功并不意味着另一个部分的失败。
Note that in a profit-center design it may still be possible for one unit to benefit at the cost of another. But the critical difference is that a win/win situation is now a possibility. Both production and marketing can benefit from meeting customer demands, and, more significantly, the performance criteria are compatible. Note that uniformity of performance criteria, although desirable, is not necessary; the important point is compatibility. In other words, the performance criteria must be designed such that the success of one part does not imply failure of another.
对社会系统随时间推移的兼容性的关注,就是对其连续性和可持续性的关注。组织的利益相关者包括过去成员和未来成员。关于过去、现在和未来成员利益之间兼容性的争论,尤其是基于道德的争论,非常丰富,超出了本书的范围;我们在这里关注的主要是务实问题。
Concern for compatibility over time in a social system is concern for its continuity and sustainability. Among stakeholders of an organization are those who were members in the past and those who will be its members in the future. The argument for compatibility between the interest of past, present, and future members, especially on ethical grounds, is so rich that it is beyond the scope of this book; our concern here is essentially pragmatic.
不难理解,一个社会体系可以以牺牲未来为代价来取得今天的成功,也可以为了创造更美好的未来而遭受今天的苦难。也可以证明,一个社会体系的过去成员可以对塑造其现在产生深远(消极或积极)的影响,尽管人们或多或少地认识到,在今天的决定不应限制未来成员的选择这一观念中,需要兼顾当前成员和未来成员的利益。然而,同样的认识并没有扩展到需要兼顾当前成员和过去成员的利益。
It is not difficult to appreciate that a social system can succeed today at the expense of its future, or suffer today for the creation of a better future. It can also be demonstrated that past members of a social system can have a profound (negative or positive) influence in shaping its present, although a need for compatibility between the interests of present and future members is more or less appreciated in the notion that decisions made today should not limit the options available to future members. However, the same recognition is not extended to the need for compatibility between the interests of present and past members.
在某些文化中,过去成员的利益仍然主导着现在,而在其他文化中,人们根本不关心那些已经离开的人的利益——他们已经不在了,也不再在意。然而,拒绝过去成员的利益与接受他们的主导地位一样不可取。一个组织作为一个有目的的成员自愿组成的协会,其有效性取决于他们的承诺程度和归属感。在这种情况下,疏远是组织发展的严重障碍。过去、现在和未来成员的利益不相容是目前成员疏远的主要原因。之所以发生这种情况,是因为对组织长期生存能力的持续威胁是那些认同未来的成员不断产生焦虑和不安全感的共同原因。
In some cultures, the interests of past members continue to dominate the present, while in other cultures there is no concern for the interests of those who are gone — out of sight, out of mind. Nevertheless, rejecting the interests of past members is as undesirable as accepting their dominance. The effectiveness of an organization as a voluntary association of purposeful members depends on the degree of their commitment and sense of belonging. In this context, alienation is a serious obstruction to an organization's development. Incompatibility between the interests of past, present, and future members is a main source of its present members' alienation. This occurs because a constant threat to the organization's long-term viability is a continuous coproducer of anxiety and insecurity among members who identify with the future.
但成员们也认同过去。他们可以从那些曾经是该体系的有效成员并为之做出过贡献的人的命运中看到自己未来的形象。不良和不幸的形象是导致不安全感的严重根源,而这种不安全感是疏离、腐败和权力欲望的核心。这就是为什么关心过去成员的利益(至少以可接受的退休制度的形式)至关重要。在这方面,应该比过去更加认真地考虑逐步退休的概念及其所有后果。
But members identify themselves with the past as well. They can see the image of their own future in the fate of those who had once been effective members of the system and served it well. An undesirable and unfortunate image is a serious source of insecurity that is at the core of alienation, corruption, and lust for power. This is why concern for the interests of past members, minimally in the form of an acceptable retirement system, is essential. In this respect the notion of gradual retirement, with all of its ramifications, should be considered more seriously than it has been.
总而言之,要管理一个多思维系统,我们需要
In summary, to manage a multi-minded system, we need to
• 协调有目的的成员的利益,并对整体的目标产生兴奋和承诺,反之亦然。
• Align the interests of purposeful members and generate excitement and commitment to the purpose of the whole, and vice versa.
• 通过复制权力而不是放弃权力来实现赋权。
• Let empowerment happen by duplicating power, not abdicating it.
• 将控制与服务分离并将其转换为学习功能。
• Separate control from service and convert it to a learning function.
• 防止非胜即败的斗争并化解令人麻痹的冲突。
• Prevent a win/lose struggle and dissolve paralyzing conflicts.
在传统的成本会计系统中,定价是基于成本加成公式。假设成本是不可控制的,生产者有权收回成本加上合理的利润。因此,价格是由效率最低但仍能保持竞争力的生产者的成本决定的。如果一家公司在市场上占据主导地位,那么通过瞄准更高的价格水平可以获得更高的利润。因此,在这个模型中,价格是一个可控变量。
Pricing, in the conventional cost-accounting system, is based on a cost plus formula. The assumption is that costs are uncontrollable and that the producers are entitled to recover their costs plus a reasonable margin for profit. Therefore, the prices are set by the cost of the least efficient producer who still manages to remain in the competitive game. Higher profits are achieved by targeting higher price levels if one commands a dominant share of the market. Thus, in this model, price is a controllable variable.
相比之下,目标成本法则假定价格由市场在竞争的基础上确定。在市场经济中,价值由用户定义。随着我们越来越接近全球化经济,价格越来越成为不可控变量,而成本则由于技术进步而越来越成为可控变量。这是一个全新的局面。
By contrast, with target costing prices are assumed to be set by the market on a competitive basis. In a market economy, values are defined by the users. As we move closer toward a global economy, prices increasingly become uncontrollable variables, while costs, because of technological advances, increasingly become controllable variables. This is a whole new ball game.
简而言之,系统思维就是在混乱和复杂的环境中定义问题并设计解决方案。阿科夫说:“我们失败的次数更多,不是因为我们无法解决面临的问题,而是因为我们没有面对正确的问题。”
In a nutshell, systems thinking is about defining problems and designing solutions in an environment characterized by chaos and complexity. According to Ackoff: “We fail more often not because we fail to solve the problem we face but because we fail to face the right problem.”
不幸的是,今天我们面临的不是一个单一的问题,而是一个问题系统,或者实际上是一个“混乱”,而定义这个混乱是我们应对当前挑战最重要的一步。
Unfortunately, today we are not confronted with a single problem but a system of problems, or in reality a “mess,” and defining this mess is the most important step in confronting our current challenges.
我们规划混乱局面是为了对导致问题模式反复重生的底层相互依赖、假设、价值观和强化奖励系统达成共识。
We formulate the mess to create a shared understanding of the underlying interdependencies, assumptions, values, and reinforcing reward system that are responsible for regenerating the problematic patterns repeatedly.
我们失败的原因往往不是因为我们无法解决所面临的问题,而是因为我们无法面对正确的问题。
We fail more often not because we fail to solve the problem we face but because we fail to face the right problem.
RL阿科夫
R.L. Ackoff
阻碍系统面对当前现实的障碍是系统自身强加的。它们隐藏且遥不可及,存在于我们感知的核心,并在思维模型、假设和形象中得到体现。这些障碍本质上塑造了我们,塑造了我们的世界,规划了我们的未来。它们负责维护系统的现状,并挫败其实现目标的努力。
The obstructions that prevent a system from facing its current reality are self-imposed. Hidden and out of reach, they reside at the core of our perceptions and find expression in mental models, assumptions, and images. These obstructions essentially set us up, shape our world, and chart our future. They are responsible for preserving the system as it is and frustrate its efforts to become what it can be.
制定该混乱是为了实现以下目标:
The mess is formulated to achieve the following aims:
• 理解导致问题模式反复重现的根本假设和强化操作
• Understand the underlying assumptions and reinforcing operations responsible for regenerating the problematic pattern repeatedly
• 对系统行为方式的原因形成共识,并在主要参与者之间形成对当前现实本质的共识
• Develop a shared understanding of why the system behaves the way it does and generate a shared understanding about the nature of the current reality among the major actors
• 通过让真正的敌人清晰可见且可信,最大限度地减少变革阻力,最大限度地提高行动勇气
• Minimize the resistance to change and maximize the courage to act by making the real enemy explicitly visible and believable
制定混乱局面是为了映射系统的动态行为。它通过展示系统中相互依赖的性质来捕捉多个反馈回路的迭代性质。它是系统当前行为中隐含的未来,是系统当前事态的结果。混乱局面的本质是情况的系统性。各部分是彼此的共同产物。如果不考虑反馈回路对某一部分的强化影响,对某一部分的改进将不会有效。混乱局面非常有弹性;它们有自我再生的方法。正是这种特性使混乱局面成为一种难以解决的现象。在处理混乱局面时普遍存在的无能为力和无能为力导致不可避免的否认,混乱局面正是赖以生存的。
Formulating the mess is to map the dynamic behavior of a system. It is to capture the iterative nature of the multiple feedback loops by demonstrating the nature of interdependencies in the system. It is the future implicit in the present behavior of the system, the consequence of the system's current state of affairs. The essence of the mess is the systemic nature of the situation. Parts are coproducers of one another. Improvement of one part without considering the reinforcing impact of the feedback loops on it will not be effective. Messes are very resilient; they have a way of regenerating themselves. It is this quality that makes a mess an intractable phenomenon. The prevalent powerlessness and impotency in dealing with the mess lead to the inevitable denial on which messes thrive.
混乱的形成是一个三阶段的过程
Formulation of the mess is a three-phase process of
1. 搜索
1. Searching
2. 映射
2. Mapping
1.系统分析
1. Systems analysis
2. 阻塞分析
2. Obstruction analysis
3.系统动力学
3. System dynamics
| 功能 | 结构 | 过程 |
|---|---|---|
| 输出效力 对客户的价值 |
与价值链的关系 | 权责 耦合/解耦 |
| 使用的范例 成功的衡量标准 |
核心竞争力 | 学习与控制 预警系统 |
| 奖励 市场利基的可行性 |
资金来源 关键资源的稀缺性 |
吞吐量流程 周期时间、瓶颈缓冲区、队列、反馈延迟 |
| 产出的内在价值(势利价值) | 承诺和会员级别 | 挑战 无聊程度 |
| 风险与脆弱性 | 政策差异 | 如何合理化内部服务需求 |
在搜索过程中,时间是一个重要的考虑因素。可用时间决定了可以实现的普遍性和特异性程度。但是,应将可用时间分配给调查的每个部分,以便至少两次通过该周期,以至少了解情况的整体性质并确定混乱的重要因素。
In a search process, time is an important consideration. The available time defines the level of generality and the degree of specificity that can be achieved. However, the available time should be allocated to each part of the inquiry to permit a pass through the cycle at least twice to understand, at a minimum, the holistic nature of the situation and identify the significant elements of the mess.
完成系统分析、障碍分析和系统动力学的第一次迭代后,我们必须停下来理解我们已经学到的东西。我们需要对关键驱动因素和主要事件及其关系做出明确的假设,以便能够对整体形成初步的印象。后续迭代将澄清、验证和/或修改此印象。但我们最初使用此印象来制定指南,说明在后续迭代中我们需要更详细地了解什么。
Having completed the first iteration of systems analysis, obstruction analysis, and system dynamics, we must pause to make sense of what we have already learned. We need to make explicit assumptions about the set of critical drivers and major events and their relationships to be able to develop a tentative picture of the whole. Subsequent iterations will clarify, verify, and/or modify this picture. But we use this picture initially to develop a guideline of what we need to know in more detail in further iterations.
搜索阶段通常会发现大量问题、障碍和驱动因素。为了理解这些发现,我们必须将它们综合成几个类别,以便我们能够检查它们之间的相互作用并了解混乱的本质。
The search phase usually identifies a large number of issues, obstructions, and drivers. To make sense of these findings, we have to synthesize them into a few categories so we can examine their interactions and understand the essence of the mess.
该过程包括将各种现象分组为类别或子集,然后识别主题,每个主题都是其组成元素(子集成员)的突现属性。
The process involves grouping various phenomena into categories or subsets, then identifying themes, each of which is the emergent property of its constituent elements (members of subsets).
这些主题的生成通常需要互动讨论,以达成对分组标准的共同理解。每个主题应 (1) 定义清晰,以免混淆其代表的内容,以及 (2) 证实其普遍性。主题不应反映孤立事件。主题有效性的试金石是,当向相关利益相关者展示时,是否能产生明确的认可信号(“啊哈”体验)。
Generation of these themes usually requires an interactive discussion to achieve a shared understanding of the grouping criteria. Each theme should be (1) defined clearly so there is no confusion about what it represents and (2) substantiated in terms of its prevalence. Themes should not reflect isolated occurrences. A litmus test for the validity of the themes is that, when presented to relevant stakeholders, a clear sign of recognition results (an “aha” experience).
最后,确定并证实所有相关主题后,必须解决各要素之间的关系(相互作用)。
Finally, after all relevant themes are identified and substantiated, the relationships (interactions) among the elements must be addressed.
• 封闭的产品部门文化
• A closed product division culture
• 市场领域的技术变革
• Technological change in the market niche
• 产品效力
• Product potency
• 运营效率
• Operational effectiveness
• 夸大的预测
• Exaggerated forecast
• 修补
• Patching
可以通过在图表上追踪数字和交互线来构建和读取此类图表,如下所示。
This type of diagram can be constructed and read by tracing numbers on the graph and the lines of interactions as follows.
一旦将混乱的要素及其相互作用绘制出来,就很容易看出当前混乱的演变原因和方式。不幸的是,上述混乱是一个众所周知的现象,每当成功的产品部门错过与其领域相关的技术突破时,就会产生这种现象。正如沃森·Jr. 所言,不幸的是,“错过技术突破的概率与组织在先前技术上取得的成功水平成正比。”
Once the elements of the mess and their interactions are mapped, it will be easy to see why and how the current mess has evolved. The above mess, unfortunately, is a well-known phenomenon that is produced whenever a successful product division misses a technological break relevant to its field. As put beautifully by Watson Jr., unfortunately “Probability of missing a technological break is directly proportional to the level of success the organization had achieved in the previous technology.”
绘制混乱图是定义混乱的本质特征和突发属性的启发式过程。它涉及找到系统中存在的“二阶机器”。现有秩序的这种意想不到的后果产生了令人麻痹的“II 型”属性,这些属性会产生惰性、阻碍变革并挫败做出重大改进的尝试。要实现任何系统性能的数量级改进,必须识别和拆除二阶机器。夸大制胜法宝,加上可能的游戏变化、错误的测量和奖励系统,往往会指向一组看似无辜、简单但根深蒂固的假设,这些假设是二阶机器的核心。
Mapping the mess is the heuristic process of defining essential characteristics and the emergent property of the mess. It involves finding the “second-order machine” residing within the system. This unanticipated consequence of the existing order produces paralyzing “type II” properties that create inertia, prevent change, and frustrate attempts to make significant improvements. To achieve an order-of-magnitude improvement in any system's performance, the second-order machine has to be recognized and dismantled. Exaggeration of the winning formula, combined with a possible change of game, faulty measurement, and reward system more often than not will point to a set of seemingly innocent, simple, but deep-rooted assumptions that are at the core of the second-order machine.
混乱不是一种预测,而是一种预警系统。信息的正确包装和传达与信息本身的内容同样重要。制定和传播混乱是解决混乱的重要一步。通常,对混乱的了解有助于化解混乱。必须编写一个可信且引人入胜的故事,揭示当前状态中隐含的不良未来。假设事情会同时出错(如果可能的话)。尝试产生共鸣并展示系统崩溃是如何发生的。挑战在于创造对当前现实及其不良后果的可信共识,从而产生变革的愿望。故事应该考虑相关利益相关者的利害关系、影响和利益。它不应该评估责任或让人们产生防御心理。混乱应该作为过去成功的结果而不是失败的结果来呈现。请记住,世界不是由那些正确的人来统治的,而是由那些能够说服他人他们是正确的人来统治的。
Mess is not a prediction; it is an early warning system. Proper packaging and communicating of the message is as important as the content of the message itself. Formulating and disseminating the mess is a significant step toward solving it. More often than not, knowledge of the mess helps dissolve it. A believable and compelling story that reveals the undesirable future implicit in the current state has to be developed. Assume that things will go wrong, if they can, all at the same time. Try to produce a resonance and show how a system breakdown can occur. The challenge is to create a believable shared understanding of the current reality and its undesirable consequences, thus creating a desire for change. The story should consider the stake, influence, and interest of the relevant stakeholders. It should not assess blame or make people defensive. The mess should be presented as a consequence of past success, not as a result of failure. Remember, the world is not run by those who are right; it is run by those who can convince others that they are right.
总体而言,管理层似乎不愿意与其他利益相关者(尤其是成员)分享混乱局面,理由是这可能会让他们灰心丧气。这种做法不仅违背了制定混乱局面的目的,而且违反直觉。根据我的经验,组织成员往往知道混乱局面的性质;在大多数情况下,他们只是不被允许谈论它,或者他们可能无法像制定混乱局面时那样完整地表达它。他们真正不知道的是管理层是否意识到了混乱局面。通常,分享混乱局面会让人松一口气,并愿意面对它。
Generally, there seems reluctance on management's part to share the mess with other stakeholders, especially the members, under the pretext that this might discourage them. Not only does this practice defeat the purpose of formulating the mess, but it is also counterintuitive. It has been my experience that members of an organization, more often than not, are aware of the nature of the mess; in most cases they are simply not allowed to talk about it, or they might not be able to articulate it as completely as during the formulation of the mess. What they really do not know is whether management is aware of the mess or not. Usually, sharing the mess brings a sigh of relief and a willingness to confront it.
本节是真实混乱状况的样本,它代表了 20 世纪 90 年代初期公用事业行业的混乱状况。
This section is a sample of a real mess formulation. It represents the mess of the utility industry during the early 1990s.
XYZ 是一个虚构的公司名称,代表了当时一家典型的公用事业公司。我相信很多人很容易就能认出它。
XYZ is a name of a fictitious corporation reflecting a typical utility company at the time. I am sure many will easily identify with it.
绘制 XYZ 公司的混乱情况遵循了所述的迭代过程。它涉及观察系统的行为方式、了解其历史以及理解其行为的原因。我们确定了导致混乱的一系列内部和外部行为。这些行为围绕主要主题进行分类。主题的生成涉及广泛的讨论,因此对分组标准达成了共识。
Mapping the mess of the XYZ Corporation followed the stated iterative process. It involved observing how the system behaved, understanding its history, and appreciating why it does what it does. We identified sets of internal and external behavior that coproduce the mess. These behaviors were categorized around major themes. Generation of the themes involved extensive discussions so a shared understanding of the grouping criteria was achieved.
因此,每个主题都象征性地代表了一组复杂的行为,反映了食堂团队的集体主观性。食堂的关键要素包括:
Each theme, therefore, symbolically represents a complex set of behaviors reflecting the collective subjectivity of the mess team. The critical elements of the mess include:
1. 成功改变了游戏规则,缺乏明确的愿景
1. Success changes the game, lack of explicit vision
2. 垄断、成本加成环境
2. The monopolistic, cost plus environment
3. 非竞争性文化
3. The non-competitive culture
4. 平庸,容忍无能
4. Mediocrity, tolerance of incompetence
5. 投入型人才政策
5. The input-based personnel policy
6. 结构不兼容和冲突
6. Structural incompatibility and conflict
7. 未来的不确定性
7. Uncertainty about the future
XYZ 的混乱是过度失衡的产物:过度关注系统的某一方面(成本加成、基于投入、无摩擦、减少多样性和以稳定性为导向的特征),而极度忽视其他方面(基于绩效、创业精神、市场驱动、变革导向和多样性放大特征)。如果有足够的时间,次优化就会把已证实的优点变成虚拟的弊端。在这种情况下,要实现 XYZ 性能的大幅提升,就需要识别和拆除这台二阶机器。因此,了解混乱为 XYZ 提供了实现其转型努力的强大工具。
The mess of XYZ is the product of an exaggerated imbalance: excessive attention to a particular aspect of the system (cost plus, input-based, friction-free, variety-reducing, and stability-oriented characteristics) and extreme neglect of the others (performance-based, entrepreneurial, market-driven, change-oriented, and variety-amplifying characteristics). Suboptimization, given enough time, has made virtual evils out of proven virtues. Under the circumstances to achieve an order-of-magnitude improvement in the performance of XYZ requires that this second-order machine be recognized and dismantled. Understanding the mess, therefore, provides XYZ with a powerful tool to realize its transformation effort.
美国的公用事业系统,无论受到怎样的自我批评,都是全世界羡慕的对象。要在几十年的时间内满足并满足一个庞大大陆的无止境的能源需求,没有远大的眼光、非凡的领导力和巨大的努力是不可能实现的。即使在今天,对其他工业社会来说,类似的成就也是一个艰巨的挑战,即使是在内部技术一致性和运行可靠性方面,更不用说规模了。在美国,公用事业公司曾经被视为现代管理的标志。他们并不等待费率上涨。效率不断降低成本。但成功带来了自满。系统停止发展,因为改进已经完美的系统毫无意义。因此,公用事业公司认为不需要任何新的多样性来源,因此关闭了他们的基因库,只与行业内部人士打交道。
The utility system of America, despite whatever self-criticism is leveled at it, was the envy of the world. To have covered and provided for the insatiable energy needs of a vast continent in a span of a few decades could not have been achieved without gigantic vision, phenomenal leadership, and Herculean effort. Even today, a comparable achievement would be a daunting challenge to other industrial societies, even in terms of internal technical consistency and operational reliability, let alone the sheer scale. In America the utilities used to be looked up to as icons of modern management. They were not waiting for rate increases to be granted. Efficiencies kept pushing costs down. But with success came complacency. The system stopped developing since it was pointless to improve a system that was already perfect. Therefore, feeling no need for any new sources of variety, utilities closed their gene pool, exclusively dealing with the insiders to the industry.
因此,战略思维成为
As a consequence, strategic thinking became a casualty of
• 对过去的骄傲
• A retroactive pride in the past
• 将关注点从新发现和新领域转移到保护已经取得的成果
• A shift of focus from new discoveries and frontiers to safeguarding what has already been achieved
• 危机管理,即组织以被动模式运作,只对出现的问题作出反应
• Crisis management, the organization operating in a reactive mode responding only to problems as they emerge
• 核心竞争力受到侵蚀
• Erosion of core competence
每年都会进行一次被称为战略规划的规划过程。制定的计划实际上是运营计划,逐渐演变为来年的“待办事项”清单。缺乏清晰的战略导致 XYZ 放弃了新的商业机会。由于缺乏对更令人兴奋的未来的新愿景,该系统不断努力保留旧事物,沉迷于后视镜的怀旧情绪。
An annual planning process identified as strategic planning is performed. The plans generated are in effect operating plans that evolve into “to-do” lists for the upcoming year. Lack of an articulated strategy has caused XYZ to forego new business opportunities. In the absence of a new vision for a more exciting future, the system engages in a constant struggle to preserve the old, a nostalgic preoccupation with the rear-view mirror.
XYZ 的性质由其在成本加监管环境中运营的独家特许经营权决定。没有任何其他单一因素比它更能影响 XYZ 的性质 — — 即其现状和行为方式。
The nature of XYZ is defined by its exclusive franchise operating in a cost plus regulated environment. No other single factor has been more responsible for influencing the nature of XYZ — being what it is, and behaving the way it does.
公用事业法规最初是为了纠正公用事业行业的滥用商业行为、恢复公众对垄断体系的信心以及充当竞争的代理而制定的。一旦行业的滥用行为得到遏制,费率制定就演变为成本加成体系中的验证过程。成本加成环境在战后时期表现相当不错,在 20 世纪 60 年代表现得更好,因为开发了新的、更便宜的能源,降低费率成为行业常态。价格下降推动了经济的扩张,刺激了客户需求,提升了行业地位,并为股东投资增加了价值。然而,20 世纪 70 年代出现了短缺、禁运、高通胀、创纪录的利率、环境法规和“中国综合症”,所有这些都使成本和行业与客户和环保主义者的关系更加紧张。为了应对更高的价格、环境问题和公众压力,监管机构将“社会正义”纳入费率设计和监管中。 20 世纪 80 年代,环保主义者和利己团体利用监管领域来推动保护计划,在费率设计中进一步强调社会公正,并颁布旨在取代电力行业传统角色(电厂建造者、所有者和运营商)的规则。在成本加监管环境中,监管机构无所不能。它所做的几乎凌驾于公用事业公司运营中的所有其他影响因素之上。应对监管环境的必要性导致了官僚能力的产生,其形式是能够管理成本和分配技术,以最大限度地发挥系统的优势。成本分配技能完善到艺术形式,然后塑造所有运营政策、程序和流程。这种背景导致了模糊和不相关的绩效标准。典型的商业指标通常会被忽略,取而代之的是成本加监管环境。例如,定义不明确的社会和经济议程阻碍了有意义的绩效指标的建立。例如,在良好的竞争环境中,如果期望一家公司不仅减少对其产品的需求,同时还要为此买单,那么人们就会觉得这是在开玩笑。一旦系统的生存变得独立于其性能,在成本加第三方支付环境中运营的奢侈导致了一种全新的游戏的出现,它有自己独特的基本规则和激励后果。随着时间的推移,人们意识到他们可以忽视早期警告,将监管机构视为其生存的主要来源,而对组织的有效性和真实市场的纪律关注有限。
Utility regulations were originally established to correct the utility industry's abusive business practices, restore public confidence in the monopolistic system, and serve as a proxy for competition. Once the industry's abuses were curbed, rate making evolved into the validation process in a cost plus system. The cost plus environment performed reasonably well in the post-war era, and even more so in the 1960s, as new, less expensive energy sources were developed and rate decreases became the industry norm. Price decreases fueled an expanding economy, stimulated customer demand and elevated the industry's stature, and added value to shareholder investments. However, the 1970s ushered in shortages, embargoes, high inflation, record interest rates, environmental regulations, and the “China Syndrome,” all of which propelled costs and the industry into a more contentious relationship with customers and environmentalists. In response to higher prices, environmental concerns, and public pressures, regulators implemented “social justice” into rate design and regulation. During the 1980s, environmentalists and self-interest groups used the regulatory arena to promote conservation programs, force even further social justice into rate designs, and promulgate rules designed to displace the electric industry from its traditional role of plant builder, owner, and operator. In the cost plus regulated environment, the regulator looms omnipotent. What it does overrides almost every other source of influence in the operation of a utility company. The necessity to cope with the regulated environment has led to a bureaucratic competency in the form of an ability to manage costs and allocation techniques to the best advantage of the system. The cost allocation skills, perfected to an art form, then shape all operating policies, procedures, and processes. This context leads to ambiguous and irrelevant performance criteria. Typical business measures are usually disregarded in lieu of a cost plus regulatory environment. For example, the ill-defined social and economic agenda defies the establishment of meaningful performance measures. In a sound competitive environment, for example, it would simply be dismissed as facetious to expect that a company should not only reduce the demand for its output but also at the same time pick up the tab for it. Once the survival of the system becomes independent of its performance, the luxury of operating in a cost plus third-party payer environment leads to the emergence of a totally new game with its own unique ground rules and motivational consequences. People realize over time that they can afford to ignore the early warnings and to look up to the regulator as the main source of their viability with a limited concern for the effectiveness of the organization and the discipline of a real marketplace.
成本加成制度已病入膏肓。客户群对此深恶痛绝,政治机器也肯定会要求废除它。尽管未来的费率监管模式和整个行业模式尚未设计出来,但显然会出现一个新的行业领导者或一套标准供其他人效仿。任何新的绩效标准都可能大量借鉴竞争模式,并且至少在最初会有利于提高成本效率的举措并奖励富有创意的创业努力。
The cost plus system is terminally ill. The customer base resents it, and the political machine will surely demand its demise. While the future model for rate regulation and the industry as a whole has yet to be designed, it is clear that a new industry leader or set of standards will emerge for others to follow. Any new performance standards will probably draw heavily from the competitive model and will, at least initially, favor cost efficiency initiatives and reward creative entrepreneurial efforts.
XYZ 的组织文化受到成本加监管环境的影响,具有以下特点:
The organizational culture of XYZ, influenced by a cost plus regulatory environment, is characterized by the following attributes:
• 非竞争性监管环境有利于同行和平共处
• Non-competitively regulated environment conducive to peaceful coexistence of peers
• 玩家之间相互尊重既定的、神圣不可侵犯的领土
• Mutual respect of players for well-established and sacrosanct territories
• 主流企业倾向于遵循平均法则;倾向于在志同道合的同行中保持相似性和非威胁性,而不是与其他公用事业公司有所区别和区别开来
• A mainstream tendency to comply with the law of averages; a bias toward being similar and non-threatening among like-minded peers as opposed to being differentiated and distinct from the other utilities
• 对稳定、和谐、友爱等社会价值观的长期尊重,而非能力
• A time-honored respect for such communal values as stability, harmony, and camaraderie over competency
• 习惯性地认为收入保证和持续增长是理所当然的
• A habitual expectation of taking for granted guaranteed earnings and continued growth
• 一个不言而喻的假设是,系统的生存与其运行效率无关
• An unspoken assumption that the survival of the system is independent of the efficiency of its operation
• 将“监管者”视为变革的唯一源泉,尽管是良性的
• Looking up to “regulators” as the single source of change, albeit a benign one
• 将监管机构视为决定未来的真正客户,而不是没有选择的最终用户
• Considering the regulator as the real customer, who determines the future, instead of the end user who has no choice
• 以投入(人员规模、受教育年限、资历长度等)而不是产出(创新、生产力、绩效等)作为地位和福利的基础;变革被视为对来之不易的安全和地位的威胁
• Determining the inputs (size of personnel, years of education, length of seniority, etc.) instead of the outputs (innovations, productivity, performance, etc.) as the basis of status and benefits; change is perceived as a threat to hard-won security and status
• 对作为的错误比不作为的错误更加敏感,隐含地否认了这样一个事实:组织失败更多时候不是因为他们做了什么,而是因为他们没有做什么
• A much greater sensitivity to errors of commission as opposed to errors of omission, an implicit denial of the fact that organizations fail more often not because of what they do but because of what they do not do
• 权力需求超越成就需求:地位和会员资格更能通过赞助和忠诚度而非竞争行为来提升(认识谁和生产什么一样重要)
• The need for power overriding the need for achievement: status and membership are enhanced more by patronage and loyalty than competitive behavior (who you know is as important as what you produce)
• 不承认重要人才和相关技术的重要性
• Not recognizing the significance of vital talent and relevant technology
• 围绕严密保护的地盘而非整体形成身份认同,而这很容易被忽视
• Formation of identities around the closely guarded turfs, rather than the whole, which is conveniently ignored
• 指挥的统一是管理冲突、消除混乱、建立一致和纠正偏差的首要工具
• The unities of command being the overriding vehicle to manage conflict, remove confusion, create alignment, and correct deviation
• 将上下级关系视为组织的唯一构成要素,导致等级森严的单维结构
• Considering the superior–subordinate relationship as the only building block of the organization, leading to hierarchical one-dimensional structure
• 鼓励帝国建设(增加预算和员工以达到赚取薪水的地位)
• Encourages empire building (inflates budget and staff to achieve salary-earning status)
• 鼓励官僚主义和抵制变革
• Encourages bureaucratization and resistance to change
• 奖励平庸,不鼓励基于才能和绩效的差异化
• Rewards mediocrity and discourages differentiation based on talent and performance
• 鼓励晋升至更高级别的无能人员,作为加薪的手段
• Encourages promotions to higher levels of incompetence as a means of salary increase
• 造成组织过度膨胀(上重下轻)
• Creates inflated (top- and bottom-heavy) organizations
• 产生冷漠和疏远
• Generates indifference and alienation
• 通过对整个系统进行平均而不是根据绩效选择性地区分员工来提高整个薪酬基础
• Raises the entire pay base by averaging the whole system rather than selectively differentiating the occupants in terms of their performance
• 用权力需求取代成就需求
• Replaces the need for achievement by the need for power
XYZ 在一个力场中运作,推动一切事物趋向于平均水平。趋向正常的引力来自三个独立但相互关联的领域:
XYZ operates in a force field that drives everything toward average. The gravitation toward normalcy comes from three separate and yet interrelated areas:
• 成本加监管环境,以及绩效标准的无关性
• A cost plus regulatory environment, and irrelevancy of performance criteria
• 致力于非竞争性文化
• Commitment to a non-competitive culture
• 基于投入的人事政策
• An input-based personnel policy
这些强化驱动因素的汇合点产生了一个熵过程,即系统趋向于非分化和统一。因此,系统的福利需要维持一种可预测、和谐和一致的状态。风险和紧张是令人厌恶的。获得竞争优势的动机和追求卓越的愿望是破坏的诱因,是对和平和健康平衡的严重威胁。远离既定规范的差异化倾向是不鼓励的。创新和创业倾向被视为社会病态,是偏离正常状态的不和谐偏差。为了保持这种理想的统一和平等状态,系统必须发展出容忍无能的能力。成功的定义是平庸、保持低调和不发出噪音。因此,在惯性的作用下,系统陷入了组织效率低下的恶性循环。活力受损;平庸开始出现。当能力变得无关紧要时,就没有人是不可或缺的。因此,与权力源泉保持适当的关系成为成功的最终标准。如果不加以控制,这一过程最终将导致不可接受的绩效水平。为了应对这种情况并产生必要的产出水平,系统具有一定程度的差异化。不幸的是,在这种情况下,唯一可行的差异化手段是创建多层级结构。将实际任务激增并细分为无关紧要的工作,允许连续的晋升周期进入无能的级别。劳动力过剩的副产品进一步阻碍了工作流程。由于官僚链的强度取决于其最薄弱的要素,因此组织变得越来越自我中心。膨胀的劳动力自给自足,创造了足够的内部工作使其忙个不停。冗余激增。流程本身成为目的。对重复的需求永无止境,因为那些想做某事的人意识到他们几乎不能依靠他人提供有效和及时的支持。这种背景导致了以下矛盾二元性的体验。人们内心对现有制度的欣赏和维护,以及对现有制度的渴望,都与人类对合理替代方案的自然渴望相冲突,这种替代方案促进了人们获得荣誉、合法权威、并通过出色的表现获得认可。因此,目睹荒芜之地会令社会良知感到痛苦。普遍的挫败感和批评反映出这种持续的紧张局势。试图解决这一困境的令人沮丧的挣扎导致了一种否认综合症的盛行:倾向于将系统的缺陷归咎于行为者,而不是系统本身。
The convergence point of these reinforcing drivers generates an entropic process, a systemic gravitation to non-differentiation and uniformity. The welfare of the system, therefore, requires maintenance of a state of predictability, harmony, and conformity. Risk and tension are anathema. Motivation to achieve competitive advantage and desire to excel are invitations to disruption and a serious threat to peace and healthy balance. Differential tendencies away from the established norms are discouraged. Innovation and entrepreneurial tendencies are treated as social pathologies, discordant deviations from the state of normalcy. To maintain this desirable state of uniformity and equality, the system has to develop a capacity to tolerate incompetence. Success is defined by being average, maintaining a low profile, and making no noise. Consequently, the system, under inertia, slips into a downward spiral of organizational ineffectiveness. Vitality suffers; banality sets in. When competence becomes irrelevant, then nobody is indispensable. Therefore, maintaining a proper relationship with the source of power becomes the ultimate criteria for success. If left unchecked, this process will ultimately result in an unacceptable level of non-performance. To counter this and produce the necessary levels of output, the system has some degrees of differentiation. Unfortunately the only feasible means for differentiation, under the circumstances, is the creation of multilayer hierarchies. Proliferation and subdivision of real tasks into insignificant jobs allows successive cycles of promotions to the levels of incompetence. The by-products of an overpopulated workforce further obstruct the workflow. Since the strength of a bureaucratic chain is determined by its weakest element, the organization became increasingly self-absorbed. Inflated workforce took a life of its own and created enough internal work to keep it busy. Redundancy proliferates. Process becomes an end in itself. Need for duplication is never ending, since those who want to do something realize that they could hardly rely on others for effective and timely support. This context is responsible for the experience of the following paradoxical duality. An implicit appreciation and desire to preserve the system that produces these opportune levels of generous benefits, security, and peace of mind militates against the natural human desire for a rational alternative that promotes earned distinction, legitimate authority, and recognition through superior performance. Witnessing the wasteland, therefore, pains the social conscience. Widespread expressions of frustration and criticism are reflections of experiencing this ongoing tension. The frustrating struggle of trying to resolve this dilemma gives rise to the prevalence of a denial syndrome: a tendency to blame the actors for the shortcomings of the system rather than the system itself.
XYZ 和能源行业的其他成员一样,正在进入未知领域。该行业曾经以公共监管环境的稳定性为特征,但现在却突然发现自己陷入了不可预测的变化之中。熟悉而紧密联系的环境正在被打破。放松管制正在引领市场,竞争力量将重塑该行业,使其面目全非。未来充满不确定性。没有人确切知道它会是什么样子。然而,可以肯定的是,公用事业行业的未来将不再像过去那样。唯一可以确定的是不确定性。挑战在于在竞争决定机遇、最终用户选择赢家的环境中脱颖而出。英国和加拿大已经陷入了公用事业全面重组的阵痛之中。华盛顿州和威斯康星州正在引领美国,并开始尝试新的形式和关系,以不同的方式做同样的事情。康涅狄格州采取了“观望”的态度,而马萨诸塞州等其他州则正在为即将到来的动荡做好准备。
XYZ, like other members of the energy industry, is entering uncharted waters. Once characterized by the stability of a publicly regulated environment, the industry has suddenly found itself in the throes of unpredictable change. The familiar and closely knit environment is being thrown open. Deregulation is ushering in the market and competitive forces will reshape the industry beyond recognition. The future, if anything, is uncertain. No one knows, with any degree of certainty, what it will look like. What is certain, however, is that the future of the utility industry is not going to be what it used to be. The only certainty will be uncertainty. The challenge is to excel in an environment where the competition defines the opportunities and the end user picks the winners. Great Britain and Canada are already in the throes of total utility restructuring. Washington and Wisconsin are leading the United States and began experimenting with new forms and relationships for doing the same differently. Connecticut has taken a “wait and see” approach and others, such as Massachusetts, are bracing for the turbulence that lies ahead.
没有人知道公用事业行业的未来会走向何方,但有猜测,包括:
No one knows what direction the future of the utility industry may take, but there are speculations, which include:
• 开放能源行业,实现市场化竞争和管理
• Opening the energy industry to market-driven competition and management
• 独立制片人成为主要参与者
• Emergence of the independent producer as a major player
• 经纪业务的兴起:批发商和零售商
• Rise of brokerage: wholesale traders and, in particular, retail wheelers
• 纳入环境成本后成本方程变化的前景
• Prospects of a change in cost equation by inclusion of the environmental costs
• 费率差异化
• Rate differentiation
• 引入并购
• Introduction of mergers and acquisitions
• 传统能源业务增长机会有限的前景
• The prospect of limited growth opportunity in the traditional energy business
不管新现实以何种形式出现,它都将孕育一系列新的威胁和机遇。鉴于新现实可能产生的影响,不同的利益相关者已经开始重新评估他们的预期。最重要的是,能源增长有限的前景不仅令股东感到焦虑,也令组织所有其他利益相关者感到焦虑,因为系统的生存能力取决于增长。增长不足将产生两种令人不安的影响:从内部来看,它将扰乱内置的成本增加系统;从外部来看,新出现的游戏将破坏同行公用事业公司的和平共处。游戏将变成本质上的零和游戏;一些人将以牺牲其他人为代价获得胜利。焦虑似乎是当务之急。
The emerging new reality, whatever shape it takes, will be pregnant with an array of new threats and opportunities. In light of the possible impact of the emerging reality, different stakeholders have already begun reassessing their expectations. Most important, the prospect of limited growth of energy is the source of anxiety not only for the stockholders but all the other stakeholders of the organization, because the viability of the system is growth based. Insufficient growth will have two disturbing effects: internally, it will upset the built-in cost increase system, and externally, the emerging new game will disrupt the peaceful coexistence of the peer utility companies. The game will become essentially zero-sum; some will win at the expense of others. Anxiety seems to be the order of the day.
如果不至少部分地处理决定当今经济行为的关键驱动因素,那么对混乱形成过程的讨论就不完整。以下交互式模型试图捕捉主要驱动因素之间的相互依赖关系,并展示当前混乱的复杂性的性质。
Discussion of the formulation of the mess would not be complete without at least partially dealing with the critical drivers that define the behavior of today's economy. The following interactive models represent an attempt to capture the interdependencies among the major drivers and demonstrate the nature of the complexities characterizing the emerging current mess.
• 全球化
• Globalization
• 股票市场资本主义
• Stock market capitalism
• 人口老龄化
• Aging population
• 社会文化体系的现实
• Realities of sociocultural systems
全球化有两个重大影响。首先,它终结了阿尔弗雷德·斯隆著名的、占主导地位的成本加成模式。价格不再被视为控制变量,而是由全球市场决定的。成本正日益成为控制变量。要竞争,就需要降低成本,提高产量。但成本和产量是由设计驱动的。要将成本降低一个数量级,就需要重新设计产品和生产过程。全球化的第二个影响是增加了全球获取信息和知识的渠道,从而增加了逆向工程。这导致了技术的模仿和扩散。应对这一双重挑战也需要重新设计。
Globalization has two critical impacts. First, it puts an end to Alfred Sloane's famous and dominant cost plus model. Price is no longer considered a control variable; it is defined by the global market. Cost is increasingly becoming the control variable. To compete cost needs to be reduced and throughput needs to be increased. But cost and throughputs are design driven. To reduce cost by an order of magnitude, the product and the throughput process need to be redesigned. The second impact of globalization is increasing global access to information and knowledge and thus reverse engineering. This leads to imitation as well as proliferation of technology. To cope with this duel challenge also requires redesign.
重新设计的迭代和持续改进的需求不断消除系统中的松弛和冗余,并使各部分之间的相互依赖性越来越明显。这是新兴复杂性的本质,它需要一种全新的领导方式——管理互动和管理那些你无法控制的事物。向上管理需要范式转变和对社会文化模型、自组织和非线性动力学的理解。讽刺的是,这又回到了学习设计思维。
Iteration of redesign and need for continuous improvement increasingly removes slack and redundancies from the system and makes the interdependencies among the parts more and more pronounced. This is the essence of emerging complexity, which demands a whole new form of leadership — managing interaction and managing those you do not control. Managing upwards requires a paradigm shift and understanding of the sociocultural model, self-organization, and nonlinear dynamics. This ironically leads back to learning design thinking.
人口老龄化还有两个影响。它增加了医疗保健和退休义务的成本,这给降低成本带来了额外的压力。此外,退休人员倾向于严重依赖基金经理来管理他们的储蓄,并在更长的预期寿命内为他们提供收入。基金经理通常不会充当长期、感兴趣的股东;他们更像是赌徒,会在适当的时候套现,押注更有前途的马。
The aging population also has two impacts. It increases the cost of health care and retirement obligations, which puts additional pressure on cost reduction. In addition, retirees have a tendency to rely heavily on money managers to manage their savings and provide them with income for a much longer life expectancy. Money managers usually do not act as long-term, interested stockholders; they are more like gamblers who will cash out at an opportune time to bet on a more promising horse.
股票资本主义对两位数增长和短期收益表现的期望,通过注重季度业绩和持续并购来满足,与股东对长期生存和稳定的期望相冲突。要化解这一冲突,创造一个短期和长期双赢的环境,需要重新设计的能力。
Expectation of stock market capitalism for double-digit growth and short-term earning performance that is met by emphasis on quarterly performance and continuous mergers and acquisitions conflicts with the stakeholder's expectation of long-term viability and stability. To dissolve this conflict and create a win/win environment that presents both short- and long-term success requires redesign capability.
• 增长是衡量成功的唯一标准
• Growth as the sole measure of success
• 金融系统行为
• Behavior of financial systems
• 公共教育失败
• Failure of public education
• 外包和全球化的现实
• Outsourcing and realities of globalization
• 结构性失业
• Structural unemployment
• 人口极端两极分化
• Radically polarized population
• 政治体制处于不断重新选举的状态
• Political system in a perpetual state of re-election
• 美国消费者的承受能力
• Carrying capacity of American consumers
要维持基于生物学思维的增长模式,就需要提高消费水平。不幸的是,维持两位数的增长(这已成为“股市资本主义”的不容置疑的期望)是不可行的,尽管取得了巨大的成功,但占主导地位的增长模式也已达到其承载能力。金融部门以数量为基础的商业模式的行为加剧了这一问题。银行业没有履行其为经济运作提供必要贷款的关键职能,而是从事贸易和中介业务,享受 57% 的企业利润,并通过不成比例的奖励制度耗尽人才库,而经济正处于衰退之中,失业率超过 10%。公共教育的失败(25% 的辍学率),加上全球化和外包的现实,导致了令人遗憾的持续结构性失业。但最重要的是,政治体系在人口极端两极分化的情况下,处于无休止的连任状态,玩着零和胜负游戏。它无力应对所面临的日益复杂的形势和挑战。
To sustain a growth paradigm, based on biological thinking, requires increasing levels of consumption. Unfortunately sustaining double-digit growth, which has become the unquestionable expectation of “stock market capitalism,” is not feasible and the dominant growth paradigm, despite its tremendous success, is reaching its carrying capacity. The problem is reinforced by the behavior of a financial sector with a volume-based business model. The banking sector, instead of performing its critical function of providing necessary loans for operation of the economy, is engaged in trade and middleman-ship, enjoying 57% of corporate profit and draining the talent pool with a disproportional reward system, while the economy is in recession with more than a 10% rate of unemployment. Failure of public education (25% dropout rate), combined with the realities of globalization, and outsourcing have produced the unfortunate persistent levels of structural unemployment. But above all, the political system, with a radically polarized population, is engaged in a perpetual state of re-election and playing the zero-sum win/lose game. It is in no position to deal with the emerging level of complexity and challenge confronting it.
不幸的是,任何单打独斗都无法化解这一复杂局面。也许是时候质疑我们的增长模式和分析思维的有效性了。模式的转变可能是必要的。
Unfortunately, dissolving this complex mess is beyond the capability of any disjointed efforts. Maybe the time has come to question the validity our growth paradigm and analytical thinking. A shift in paradigm may be in order.
第九章 业务架构
Chapter nine. Business Architecture
在干扰程度不断增加的全球市场经济中,有生存能力的企业不能再局限于单一的形式或功能。成功来自于自发创建适合当下的结构和功能的自我更新能力。在这种情况下,自我参照的正确运作肯定会防止犹豫不决和随意寻找新产品市场,而这些在过去几年摧毁了许多企业。
In a global market economy with ever-increasing levels of disturbance, a viable business cannot be locked into a single form or function anymore. Success comes from a self-renewing capability to spontaneously create structures and functions that fit the moment. In this context proper functioning of self-reference would certainly prevent the vacillations and the random search for new product–markets that have destroyed so many businesses over the past years.
设计系统架构的第一步是定义系统的边界并了解其预期运行的环境。
The first step in designing system architecture is to define the system's boundary and appreciate the environment in which it intends to operate.
要定义系统的边界,我们需要了解其利益相关者的行为。组织的利益相关者是任何直接受组织行为影响并因此与组织绩效有利害关系的个人或团体。因此,我们需要了解以下几点:主要利益相关者是谁?他们的期望是什么?从他们的角度来看,系统的理想属性是什么?他们的影响力是什么?他们控制(或影响)哪些关键变量?例如,在市场经济中,客户提供营业收入,老板定义会员资格,股东支付资本,供应商是互补技术的来源,分销商提供客户渠道。然而,利益和影响力并不一定齐头并进;高利益往往与低影响力相伴而生,反之亦然。例如,影响力最高的客户(拒绝他们的惠顾)在系统中的利益水平非常低。另一方面,在系统中利益非常高的员工通常影响力较低。影响力非常大的股东利益最低。如果不高兴,他们只需把钱拿走。
To define a system's boundary we need to understand the behavior of its stakeholders. A stakeholder of an organization is any individual or group who is directly affected by what the organization does and therefore has a stake in its performance. Therefore, we need to know the following: Who are the major stakeholders? What are their expectations? What are the desired properties of the system from their perspective? What is their influence? Which critical variables do they control (or influence)? For example, in a market economy the customer provides the operating income, the boss defines the membership, stockholders pay the capital, suppliers are the source of complementary technologies, and distributors provide access to customers. However, stake and influence do not necessarily go hand in hand; a high stake is often coupled with low influence, and vice versa. For example, customers with the highest level of influence (refusing their patronage) show a very low level of stake in the system. On the other hand, employees with a very high stake in the system often have low level of influence. Shareholders with very high influence have the least at stake. If unhappy, they simply take their money out.
正如我们之前提到的,系统的边界是一个主观概念,由参与参与者的利益和影响力和/或权威程度定义。因此,系统由所有能够被参与参与者充分影响或控制的变量组成。同时,系统必须保持可行的环境由所有那些虽然会影响系统行为但不能被参与设计者直接影响或控制的变量组成。
As we alluded to before, the system's boundary is a subjective construct defined by the interest and level of influence and/or authority of the participating actors. Therefore the system consists of all variables that could be sufficiently influenced or controlled by the participating actors. Meanwhile, the environment in which the system must remain viable consists of all those variables that, although affecting the system's behavior, could not be directly influenced or controlled by the participating designers.
至于竞争基础的变化,请考虑这样一个事实:我们已经过了基于零件和劳动力可互换性的大规模生产时代。我们已经进入了大规模定制时代,在这个时代,成功的定义是生产小批量定制产品,并降低盈亏平衡点。1999 年,本田汽车公司某一车型的盈亏平衡点是 2000 辆汽车,而福特汽车公司需要 50 万辆同款汽车才能实现盈亏平衡。规模经济和对简单程序的掌握是大规模生产的基石,但多技能知识型员工现在是大规模定制的核心要求。全球化意味着价格是在全球市场上确定的,因此,它被认为是一个不可控变量,而成本则成为可控变量(目标成本)。在“成本加成经济”中,成本被认为是不可控的,而价格是可控变量(目标定价)。当自动化成本超过劳动力成本时,执行例行工作的效率曾经是一种美德。数字革命颠覆了这一等式。计算机越来越便宜,已经让“狭隘技能”和“简单程序”方法过时了。当需要执行特定程序时,计算机是理想的角色。当今的知识工作者能够将所需的任何知识片段组合在一起,以产生集成解决方案。
As for the change in the bases of competition, consider the fact that we are past the age of mass production based on the interchangeability of parts and labor. We have entered the mass customization era where success is defined by producing smaller batches of customized products at lower break-even points. In 1999 Honda's break-even point for a given model was two thousand cars, whereas Ford Motor Company needed five hundred thousand units of the same model car to break even. Economy of scale and mastery of a simple procedure was the cornerstone of mass production, but the multi-skilled knowledge worker is now the core requirement of mass customization. Globalization means that price is set in the global marketplace, therefore, it is considered an uncontrollable variable and the cost becomes the controllable variable (target costing). In the “cost plus economy” cost is considered uncontrollable and price is the controllable variable (target pricing). Efficiency in performing a routine used to be a virtue when the cost of automation outweighed the cost of labor. The digital revolution has reversed the equation. Increasingly cheaper computers have rendered the “narrow skill” and “simple procedure” approach obsolete. When it comes to performing a specific procedure the computer is the ideal actor. Knowledge workers of today are capable of putting together whatever pieces of know-how it takes to produce an integrated solution.
曾经有一段时间,问题可以在一个学科或部门的范围内巧妙地表述和方便地解决。然而,现代问题越来越复杂,相互关联。这些问题很混乱;它们成捆出现,需要不同的方法。当今的知识工作者不仅需要胜任自己的职业,而且还应该密切了解他们将要合作的总体背景和整个过程。
There was a time when problems could be neatly formulated and conveniently solved within the confines of a single discipline or department. Modern problems, however, are increasingly complex and interrelated. These problems are messy; they come in bundles and require a different approach. The knowledge workers of today are not only required to be competent in their own vocation, but they are supposed to be intimately aware of the total context and overall process within which they are to collaborate.
在组织发展过程中援引的许多常识性陈述都被证明是违反直觉的。意外因素并不是因为人们故意不诚实。新出现的后果与预期相矛盾,因为运营原则植根于属于不同范式的假设。除非基本前提浮出水面并规划出最终后果,否则这种意外是不可避免的。
Many common sense statements invoked in the process of developing organizations prove counterintuitive. The surprise element is not because people are knowingly disingenuous. Emerging consequences contradict expectations because the operating principles are rooted in assumptions that belong to different paradigms. Such surprises are inevitable unless the underlying premises are surfaced and their eventual consequences are mapped out.
企业的目标本质上是由其隐含范式定义的。如果所讨论的组织以机械方式运作,那么它就被视为其所有者的工具。因此,它的目的就是服务于其所有者的目的。当然,工具的性能标准是效率和可靠性。在生物运作模式下,组织的目的是生存,因此其性能标准是不惜一切代价的增长。利润作为增长手段具有额外的社会价值,并克服了机械时代的负面污名。由于在社会文化运作模式下,组织被认为是有目的的成员的自愿联合,因此其目的是通过用更少的资源做更多的事情来服务其成员和环境。
The purpose of business enterprise is essentially defined by its implicit paradigm. If the organization in question operates in a mechanistic mode, then it is considered to be a tool of its owner. Its purpose therefore would be to serve the purpose of its owner. Performance criteria of a tool, of course, would be efficiency and reliability. Purpose of organization in a biological mode of operation is survival, thus its performance criterion would be growth at any cost. Profit as the means of growth finds additional social value and overcomes the negative stigma of the mechanistic era. Since organization in a sociocultural mode of operation is considered to be a voluntary association of purposeful members, its purpose would be to serve its members and its environment by doing more and more with less and less.
理想未来愿景的初步草图通常可以在交互设计的第一轮迭代后完成。虽然我们被告知愿景是白日梦者的逃避机制,但没有愿景就没有方向感。没有愿景,所有可能性都具有同等价值;就没有判断新兴机会相关性的基础。
The initial sketches of the vision of the desired future usually can be put together after the first iteration of interactive design. Although we are told that visions are escape mechanisms of daydreamers, without a vision there will be no sense of direction. Without a vision all possibilities would have equal values; there would be no basis to judge the relevancy of the emerging opportunities.
另一方面,商业模式定义了企业创造价值、创建可交付产品包并将其与金钱进行交换的方式。如今,在开发新商业模式时,人们表现出惊人的独创性,这正在彻底影响传统的商业概念。例如,以搜索引擎谷歌为例。通过向一群消费者提供免费服务,它可以从广告商那里赚取大量资金,以至于超过了道琼斯指数中列出的巨头的价值。像微软那样,创建一个价值数十亿美元的企业来创建、打包和销售独立于计算机硬件的操作系统,对于我们这些在 20 世纪 60 年代为 IBM 工作的人来说是不可想象的。在 20 世纪 90 年代初,我参与了一家财富 100 强公司的收购,担任顾问,收购了一家价值 100 亿美元的企业。所有服务提供商(法律、财务和管理)向客户收取的总费用不到 50 万美元。这笔费用是根据实际花费的时间乘以小时费率计算的。如今,按照按百分比计算的商业模式,完成同样的任务将花费2亿多美元。
The business model, on the other hand, defines the way a business generates value, creates a deliverable package, and exchanges it with money. Today amazing originality is shown when developing new business models, which is radically influencing the traditional business concepts. Consider, for example, the case of the search engine Google. By providing free service to a group of consumers it can make so much money from advertisers that it exceeds the value of the giants listed in the Dow Jones index. Creating a multi-billion-dollar business to create, package, and sell operating systems independently from computer hardware, as is done by Microsoft, was inconceivable for those of us who worked for IBM during the 1960s. In the early 1990s, I was involved with a Fortune 100 company as a consultant in the acquisition of a $10 billion business. The total sum of money that all service providers — legal, financial, and management — charged the client was less than $500,000. This fee was based on actual time spent multiplied by the hourly rate. Today the same task would cost over $200 million based on a business model that works on percentage.
传统上,其中一个维度被指定为主要维度,迫使其他两个维度处于从属地位。
Traditionally one of these dimensions has been designated as primary, forcing the other two into subordinating roles.
产品型企业的成功通常由其产品部门的成功来衡量,这就是为什么一切都很容易妥协并服从于产品。然而,当某项技术的潜在价值以某种方式超过其支持的产品的价值时,企业就会面临困境。
The success of a product-based business is usually measured by the success of its product divisions, which is why everything is easily compromised and subordinated to the product. However, when the potential value of a given technology somehow exceeds the value of the product it supports, the business faces a dilemma.
不幸的是,经验表明,在这些情况下,技术总是会受到损害。在以产品为基础的业务中,产品经理是老板。他们只把技术视为产品的竞争优势;因此,在以产品为基础的业务中,技术永远没有机会实现其潜力。不少案例都支持这一论断,但最引人注目的是第一代苹果操作系统(著名的图形界面)的命运。这个非凡的操作系统被专门用于销售苹果电脑,当时它的潜力远远高于当时它支持的最初苹果产品的最大潜力。微软证明了这一点,其声名鹊起的 Windows 95 就是对所有电脑生产商使用的最初苹果操作系统的模仿。据报道,IBM 花费数十亿美元裁掉了大约 20 万人——有人说是当时最优秀的知识型员工。但它没有考虑利用其先进的“数字技术”和最先进的“C4 技术”成为当时最具爆炸性潜力的市场——“电子封装”的主要参与者。
Unfortunately, experience shows that, in these cases, technology is always compromised. In a product-based business, the product managers are the bosses. They see technology only as a competitive advantage for their product; therefore, technology will never get the chance to realize its potential in the context of a product-based business. Quite a few cases support this assertion, but the most conspicuous is the fate of the first Apple operating system (the famous graphic interface). This phenomenal operating system was used exclusively to sell Apple computers when its potential had been much higher than the maximum potential of the initial Apple products it supported at the time. This was proven by Microsoft, whose claim to fame, Windows 95, was an imitation of the initial Apple operating system used by all computer producers. It was reported that IBM spent billions to lay off about 200,000 people — some say the best available knowledge workers. But it did not consider capitalizing on its advanced “digital technology” and state-of-the-art “C4 technology” to become the major player in the most potentially explosive market of the time — “electronics packaging.”
然而,国防工业市场一夜之间崩盘所遭受的创伤再次证实,选择单一生存模式的代价非常高昂。该行业无法利用其对新兴互联网技术的访问和了解并不令人意外。管理技术需要一套与管理产品和/或市场所需的标准不同的标准。
However, the trauma of the defense industry, when its market collapsed overnight, was another confirmation that the price tag on selecting a single pattern of existence is very high. The industry's inability to take advantage of its access and knowledge of emerging Internet technology was not surprising. Managing technology requires a different set of criteria than those necessary to manage products and/or markets.
公司利用材料科学和加工技术,不断寻找能够生产并供应给不同市场的新产品。管理技术型企业不仅需要更广阔的规划视野,还需要具备在不同环境下运用相同知识的能力。
Using its materials science and processing technology, it continually searches for new products that it can produce and offer in different markets. Managing a technology-based business not only needs broader planning vision, but also the ability to use the same knowledge in different contexts.
每种方法的成功或失败取决于它与当时出现的竞争挑战的兼容性。由于竞争博弈会随着时间而变化,它们迫使公司将战略重点从一个维度转移到另一个维度。由于每种战略在权力和责任方面都具有组织含义,因此战略的变化需要改变组织结构和企业的主导文化。随着竞争加剧和变化越来越频繁,这种单一维度的方法变得越来越无效。为了寻找有效的竞争基础而从一个维度转移到另一个维度会导致组织动荡和战略混乱。定期重组带来的浪费和挫折使得寻找替代解决方案成为必要。
The success or failure of each approach depends on its compatibility with the emerging competitive challenge at the time. Because competitive games change over time, they force companies to switch their strategic emphasis from one dimension to another. Since each strategy has organizational implications in terms of authority and responsibility, changes in strategy require changes in the organizational structure and the dominant culture of the business. As competition intensifies and the changes become more frequent, this unidimensional approach becomes more ineffective. Shifts from one dimension to another in search of the effective competitive base cause organizational turmoil and strategic confusion. The waste and frustration associated with periodic restructuring have necessitated a search for alternative solutions.
目标是充分利用整个价值链,积极创造三个维度之间的协同效应。互动架构基于管理技术、产品和市场之间的互动。
The objective is to capitalize on the totality of the value chain and actively generate synergy among the three dimensions. An interactive architecture is based on managing the interactions among technology, product, and markets.
新兴的多维模块化结构,每个维度都有不同的商业模式和奖励制度,消除了围绕任何一个业务维度的从属或次优化的需要,消除了定期重组,并从一个维度转移到另一个维度,以寻找有效的竞争基础。
The emerging multidimensional modular structure, with a different business model and reward system for each dimension, dissolves the need for subordination or suboptimization around any one business dimension, eliminates periodic restructuring, and shifts from one dimension to another in search of an effective competitive base.
在不可预测的动荡环境中,任何设计的可行性都取决于其探索和利用整个价值链中新兴机会的能力。这些机会来自技术、产品和市场之间的互动,而单一的文化和架构无法实现这些机会。确定多元文化架构基本维度的平台是价值链初始元素发展的起点。随着业务的成熟和稳定,新的元素将被添加。
In an unpredictable, turbulent environment, the viability of any design depends on its capability to explore and exploit emerging opportunities all along the value chain. These opportunities, which emerge out of interactions among technology, product, and markets, remain inaccessible to unidimensional cultures and architecture. A platform that identifies the basic dimensions of the multicultural architecture is the starting point from which the initial elements of the value chain will evolve. As the business gains maturity and stability, new elements will be added.
在制定企业的战略意图时,我们必须记住,竞争优势是一种动态的相对现象;在不同的情况下,针对不同类别的用户,竞争优势是不同的。例如,作为竞争基础的时间因素,对于上午 10 点和下午 5 点的超市购物者来说是不一样的。前者往往花时间,而后者则更关心节省时间。在一种情况下可能是一种优势,在另一种情况下可能是一种劣势。这解释了便利店尽管价格较高却仍然成功的原因。
In formulating the strategic intent of an enterprise we must remember that competitive advantage is a dynamic and relative phenomenon; it is different in different contexts and in reference to different classes of users. For example, the element of time, as a basis for competition, is not the same for supermarket shoppers at 10 a.m. and those at 5 p.m. Often the former are spending time, whereas the latter are interested in saving time. What might be an advantage in one context could be a disadvantage in another. This explains the success of convenience stores despite their higher prices.
战略意图可以表述为核心竞争力。在这种情况下,核心竞争力是整个组织的属性;它不能只存在于一个部门。创造将知识转移到不同环境的能力需要多种学习和应用来源。
Strategic intent can be formulated as a core competency. In this context a core competency is the attribute of the organization as a whole; it cannot be housed in a single division. Creation of the ability to transfer knowledge to different contexts requires multiple sources of learning and application.
为了在交换中实现自身利益,一个有目的的系统应该回馈其环境。因此,它需要接触一群具有购买力的潜在用户,这些用户对它可以生产的产品或服务有需求或渴望。事实上,真正的客户是令人头疼的。他/她有你想要的东西,而他/她的满足感,在与其他供应来源的竞争中,是你为了得到它而必须付出的代价。
To serve its own interest in an exchange, a purposeful system ought to have something to give back to its environment. Therefore, it needs access to a group of potential users with purchasing power who have a need or desire for the product or service it can produce. A true customer, in reality, is a pain in the neck. He/she has something you want, and his/her satisfaction, in competition with other sources of supply, is the price you have to pay to get it.
选择产品市场利基是定义企业功能和设计其架构的第一步。我们需要回答以下问题:我们试图解决谁的问题?我们提供什么解决方案?我们将如何接触目标客户?最后,目标客户是否有足够的购买力来支付这个解决方案的费用?
Selecting a product-market niche is the first step in defining an enterprise's function and designing its architecture. We need to answer the following questions: Whose problem are we trying to solve? What solutions are we offering? How will we access the target customers? And, finally, will the target customers have sufficient purchasing power to pay for this solution?
竞争优势是企业生产的产品属性。对于特定类别的用户来说,竞争优势是影响其选择的差异。竞争优势必须能够转化为供应商的价值。
Competitive advantage is an attribute of outputs produced by an enterprise. It is a difference that makes a difference, for a given class of users, in affecting their choice. And it must be transferable to a value for the provider.
要选择理想的产品市场利基,必须区分客户群。细分市场的方法有很多种。每个细分市场都会揭示一些有关市场性质和目标客户行为的新信息。使用尽可能多的标准来区分用户特征并确定他们的购买习惯。最有用的细分市场是识别以下特征的细分市场:
To select a desired product-market niche, it is necessary to differentiate the customer base. There are many different ways to segment a market. Each segment reveals something new about the nature of the market and the behavior of the target customers. Use as many criteria as you can to differentiate user characteristics and identify their purchasing habits. The most useful segmentation is the one that identifies:
1. 期望产品属性与组织潜在能力更相容的客户群
1. The group of customers for whom the desired properties of the product are more compatible with the organization's potential capabilities
2. 潜在客户对旧产品体系的兴趣较小,因此表现出较少的惰性,更容易获得
2. Those potential customers who have less stake in the old product system and therefore display less inertia and offer easier access
传统上,组织理论处理两种类型的关系:(1)责任(谁负责什么)和(2)权力(谁向谁报告)。
Traditionally, organizational theory deals with two types of relationships: (1) responsibility (who is responsible for what) and (2) authority (who reports to whom).
用于将整体划分为责任领域以及确定其相对重要性(权力线)的标准代表了组织理论之间的主要差异。这些标准主要围绕系统的三个组成部分发展而来,这并不令人意外:投入(技术)、产出(产品)和环境(市场)。
The criteria used for dividing the whole into areas of responsibility, and for determining their relative importance (line of authority), represent the major differences among organization theories. These criteria, not surprisingly, have evolved primarily around three components of a system: input (technology), output (products), and environment (markets).
根据特定时间竞争博弈的性质,使用优先级方案将一个组成部分指定为主要组成部分,将其他两个组成部分指定为从属组成部分。例如,当生产能力是竞争的决定性因素时,投入成为主要关注点,从而使市场和产品从属于制造。营销时代,重点从生产转移到市场,从而制造从属于营销。似乎自我强加的单维组织概念阻碍了多维替代方案的实现。
Depending on the nature of the competitive game at any given time, a priorities scheme is used to designate one component as primary and the other two as subordinates. For example, when the ability to produce was the defining factor of competition, input became the primary concern rendering market and product subordinate to manufacturing. The marketing era saw the shift of emphasis from production to market and thus subordination of manufacturing to marketing. It seems that a self-imposed unidimensional concept of organization has prevented the realization of a multidimensional alternative.
对于大多数设计师来说,基于结构化任务、细分和职能层级协调的单维组织模式似乎是唯一可接受的工作组织方式。主流管理文化仍然非常重视命令和控制,认为组织结构中的任何形式的变化都是不可接受的、浪费的,充其量是不切实际的。
For a majority of designers, the unidimensional mode of organization based on structurally defined tasks, segmentation, and hierarchical coordination of functions seems the only acceptable way of organizing work. A predominant management culture continues to value command and control very dearly and considers any form of variety in the organizational structure unacceptable, wasteful, and at best impractical.
如本章前面所讨论的,多维结构假设三个共同标准——投入(技术)、产出(产品)和环境(市场)——是互补的。将它们视为相互依赖的维度并管理它们的相互作用,当竞争环境发生变化而需要将重点从一个方向转移到另一个方向时,例如从产品转向市场,反之亦然,就无需定期进行重组。
As discussed earlier in this chapter, the multidimensional structure assumes that the three common criteria — input (technology), output (products), and environment (markets) — are complements. Treating them as interdependent dimensions and managing their interactions eliminates the need for periodic reorganization when a change in the competitive environment necessitates a change of emphasis from one orientation to another, for example, from products to markets, or vice versa.
任何组织的生存能力都取决于其积极适应新兴竞争环境不断变化的要求的能力。适应能力需要某种形式的灵活性和响应能力,而这又要求在系统中建立一定程度的冗余。
The viability of any organization depends on its ability to adapt actively to the changing requirements of the emerging competitive game. The ability to adapt requires some form of flexibility and responsiveness, which in turn demands that some degree of redundancy be built into the system.
嵌入多维方案的模块化结构可以实现所需的灵活性,通过将注意力从微观管理各个部分(权力)转移到宏观管理交互(权力去做),从而创建一个自适应的学习系统。
A modular structure embedded in a multidimensional scheme can achieve the required level of flexibility to create an adaptive, learning system by shifting its attention from micro-managing the parts (power-over) to macro-managing the interactions (power-to-do).
组织的核心在于执行力。它不应与控制力相混淆。执行力是组织效力和权力复制的基础,而控制力则与支配有关。强大的组织并非建立在无能的原则之上。当执行力在专用模块中复制时,它会成倍增加。这些模块只要满足其所属更大系统的接口和功能要求,就享有相当大的自由。在任何系统中,差异化都是使系统保持活力和效力的因素。具有差异化和整合能力的组织为自己和他人创造了真正的价值。
Power-to-do is what organization is all about. It should not be confused with power-over. Power-to-do is the foundation of organizational potency and duplication of power, whereas power-over is about domination. Potent organizations are not built on impotent principles. Power-to-do multiplies when it is duplicated in special purpose modules. These modules enjoy considerable freedom as long as they meet the interface and functional requirements of the larger system of which they are a part. In any system it is differentiation that keeps the system alive and potent. Organizations that differentiate and integrate create real value for themselves and others.
在我看来,多维模块化设计是处理复杂性和不确定性最实用的方法。它使实施复杂的设计变得可行,而不会迷失方向。
Multidimensional, modular design, in my experience, is the most practical means of handling complexity and uncertainty. It makes it feasible to implement a complex design without getting lost in the process.
多维模块化结构由一组不同但相互关联的平台组成。每个平台代表系统的一个维度,表示独特的环境、操作模式和预定义的性能标准和措施。每个平台都承载一组具有相同行为特征的特殊用途模块。平台之间的关系和接口被明确定义,将它们集成到整体概念中。各部分作为独立系统运行,具有相对自我控制的能力,并充当连贯整体的负责任成员,能够有效响应包含系统的要求。
Multidimensional modular structure consists of a set of distinct, but interrelated, platforms. Each platform represents a dimension of the system signifying a unique context, mode of operation, and predefined set of performance criteria and measures. Each platform hosts a set of special purpose modules with the same set of behavioral characteristics. Relationships and the interfaces among platforms are explicitly defined, integrating them into a concept of the whole. Parts operate as independent systems with the ability to be relatively self-controlling and act as responsible members of a coherent whole with the ability to respond effectively to the requirements of the containing system.
由于每个模块都可能消耗其环境中的稀缺资源,因此其输出应响应环境的需求。最低级别的输出模块是负责产生有形、可衡量输出的最小单元。
Since each module may consume scarce resources from its environment, its outputs should be responsive to the needs of the environment. The lowest level output module is the smallest unit that can be accountable for producing a tangible, measurable output.
输出模块的性能最好尽可能独立于其他同类输出模块的行为;它应该对其资源(资金和人员)拥有足够的权力,以对其成功或失败负责。它还应该能够保留一定比例的贡献,高于最低水平,用于激励和内部发展。
Performance of an output module preferably should be as independent to the behavior of other peer output modules as possible; it should have enough authority over its resources — money and people — to be responsible and accountable for its success or failure. It should also be able to retain a percentage of its contributions above a minimum level for incentive and internal development.
每个输出模块负责做出仅影响其操作的决策。影响其他单元的决策将在更高级别上进行,所有受影响模块均参与其中。
Each output module is responsible for making those decisions that affect only its operations. Decisions that impact the other units will be made at higher levels with the participation of all affected modules.
将高资本密集型生产设施置于产品模块中会将组织的命运与单一产品捆绑在一起。以设施为导向的部门或模块不愿意开发任何需要使用不同设施的产品,它将像产品一样经历成长、成熟和不可避免的衰退周期。
Placing a high-capital-intensive production facility in a product module will tie the fates of an organization to a single product. The facility-oriented division or module unwilling to develop any product that would require use of different facilities would experience the cycle of growth, maturity, and inevitable decline just as the product does.
理想情况下,输出平台应是一个虚拟实体,并拥有关于环境机会和内部能力的最新信息。它应具有独特的能力来考虑组织可能可用的一组新替代方案和选择。最后,输出平台的模块应具有以新顺序重新输入的能力和权限。
Ideally, the output platform would be a virtual entity and would have up-to-date information about environmental opportunities and internal competencies. It would have the distinct capability to consider a new set of alternatives and choices that might be available to the organization. Finally, modules of the output platform should have the ability and the authority to re-engage inputs in a new order.
为了创建一个大于各部分之和的系统,组织需要充分利用其协同作用。规模经济、专业化需求、技术要求和核心技术开发是输出模块所需的某些功能和技术应该共享的原因之一。
To create a system that is more than the sum of its parts, the organization needs to fully use its synergy. Economies of scale, the need for specialization, technological imperative, and development of core technologies are among the reasons why some functions and technologies required by output modules ought to be shared.
例如,在投入维度中将制造单位指定为利润中心,不仅可以实现更具竞争力和灵活性的设施管理,而且还为产品经理提供了从组织内部或外部购买制造所需产品的自由,而不受固定设施的限制。
For example, designating the manufacturing unit as a profit center in the input dimension not only results in a more competitive and flexible facility management, but it also provides the product managers with the freedom to buy their manufacturing requirements from within or outside the organization without constraint from fixed facilities.
输入模块一般都配有营运资金,预计通过按市场价格收取服务费来赚取运营费用和投资回报。
Input modules, in general, are provided with working capital and are expected to earn their operating expenses plus a return on the investment by charging the market price for their services.
如果需求不足或不可预测,需要为投入功能提供额外支持,那么一般规则是补贴需求而不是供给。在转换的早期阶段,可以通过购买合同的方式将投入单位的运营预算提供给它,以购买其全部服务。
If insufficiency or unpredictability of demand makes it necessary to provide additional support for an input function, then the general rule is to subsidize the demand instead of the supply. In the early stages of the conversion, the operating budget of an input unit may be given to it by means of a purchase contract for its total services.
然而,一般来说,应该避免集中化,除非下列一种或所有情况极力反对某项特定服务的分散化。
However, in general, centralization should be avoided unless one or all of the following situations weigh overwhelmingly against decentralization of a particular service.
当系统的某些方面是所有或部分所共有的,并且如果不分散则会严重损害系统的正常运作,则这些方面将集中化。例如,在测量系统等领域,共同语言和协调是主要关注点,统一性将成为集中化的标准。同时,某些活动由于其性质而被视为不可分割,因此需要整体设计,也可以集中化。例如,综合信息系统的有效性在于其整体性、一致性、实时访问和适当的网络,以便根据需要将信息传输给不同的用户。开发这样的系统需要系统内所有参与者之间的合作与协调。
Some aspects of the system will be centralized when they are common to all or some parts and cannot be decentralized without rendering serious damage to the system's proper functioning. For example, in areas such as measurement systems, where common language and coordination are major concerns, uniformity will serve as a criterion for centralization. Meanwhile, certain activities that, because of their nature, are deemed indivisible and thus require a holistic design can also be centralized. For example, the effectiveness of a comprehensive information system lies in its holism, consistency, real-time access, and proper networking to transfer information as needed to different users. Developing such a system requires cooperation and coordination among all actors in the system.
虽然规模经济通常被认为是创建共享服务的一个重要因素,但在将功能转移到共享服务之前,应该明确说明每个功能的集中化和分散化之间的权衡,以证明其好处远远超过坏处。在这种情况下,预计一项服务一旦集中化,将为整个系统带来大量节省,或帮助那些原本无法独自负担得起的单位。
Although economy of scale is generally considered an important factor in creating shared service, the trade-off between centralization and decentralization of each function should be made explicit to prove that the benefits significantly outweigh the disadvantages before the function is moved to shared services. In this case, it is expected that a service, once centralized, will either generate significant savings for the system as a whole or help those units that otherwise would be unable to afford it on their own.
管理层认为,掌握某种技术对于企业未来的成功至关重要,因此可能会决定集中开发该技术,并让所有部门都能使用。有时,某个输出部门开发的技术在市场上的潜力比产品部门的竞争优势要大得多。在这种情况下,管理层有责任将其确定为核心技术,并将其集中起来进行全面开发。
Feeling that a certain level of mastery in a given technology will be critical for the enterprise's future success, management may decide to centralize, develop, and make the technology available for all units. Sometimes a technology developed by an output unit has a much greater potential in the marketplace than as a competitive advantage to the product division. In this case it is management's responsibility to identify it as a core technology and centralize it for full-scale development.
无论集中化的理由是什么,输入单元都必须成为首选的先进且具有成本效益的提供商。然而,阻碍输入单元运作的一个可靠方法是将其功能与控制功能混合在一起。这种做法既破坏了服务功能的有效性,也破坏了控制的合法性。
Whatever the justification for centralization, the input units will have to become state-of-the-art and cost-effective providers of choice. However, a sure way to obstruct the functioning of an input unit is to mix its function with that of control. This practice undermines both the effectiveness of the service function and the legitimacy of the controls.
为了保护自己免受服务提供商日益增长的霸权以及依赖控制驱动服务所带来的明显风险的影响,输出单位诉诸于重复原本可以轻松共享和有效使用的支持服务。猖獗的过度服务重复是运营单位对承担额外控制功能的服务功能的自然反应。另一方面,将合法且必要的控制功能伪装成服务功能会将控制的性质从学习转变为防御和道歉行为。
To protect themselves against the creeping hegemony of service providers and the obvious risks involved in relying on control-driven services, output units resort to duplicating the support services that could otherwise be easily shared and effectively used. Rampant, excessive duplications of services are symptomatic of the natural reaction of operating units to service functions assuming the additional function of control. On the other hand, disguising a legitimate and necessary control function as a service function transforms the nature of control from learning to a defensive and apologetic act.
应格外小心,确保共享服务的任何功能都不会发生性质变化并承担控制属性。以需要一致性和统一性为借口,人们自然倾向于让服务提供商执行必要的监控和审计功能。这种做法总是被证明是错误的。提供商无法避免越来越想承担控制功能的滑坡。这显然会吓跑那些没有想到会以服务器为幌子找到新老板的用户。
Extra care should be taken to ensure that none of the functions of shared services undergo a character change and assume control properties. Under the pretext of a need for consistency and uniformity, there is a natural tendency to let the service provider perform the necessary monitoring and auditing function. This practice has always proved misguided. The providers cannot avoid the slippery slope of wanting, increasingly, to assume a control function. This obviously would scare away users who did not expect to find a new boss in the guise of a server.
共享服务将为客户提供所需的服务(例如信息、福利、工资和账单),而规划和控制系统将制定管理这些服务的政策和标准,并进行必要的监控和执行功能,以确保这些政策的正确实施。
Whereas shared services will provide the customers with requested services (such as information, benefits, payroll, and billing), it will be the planning and control system that will be setting the policies and the criteria governing these services as well as conducting the necessary monitoring and enforcing functions to ensure proper implementation of those policies.
市场维度是与客户的接口。在大多数情况下,这是组织实际发生的地方。根据客户群的多样性,可能需要创建许多昂贵的分销渠道。然后,与其他输出单位共享这些渠道就变得势在必行。
The market dimension is the interface with the customers. In most cases, this is where organization actually happens. Depending on the diversity of the customer base, there might be a need to create a number of costly distribution channels. It then becomes imperative to share these channels with other output units.
市场维度的两个主要功能是分销和宣传。分销代表组织对外。宣传负责感知环境条件并探索客户的期望。宣传服务于所有受组织活动影响的人。其在组织内部宣传消费者观点方面的作用尤为重要。
Two major functions of the market dimension are distribution and advocacy. Distribution represents the organization to the outside. Advocacy is responsible for sensing environmental conditions and exploring the expectations of the customers. Advocacy serves all those affected by the activities of the organization. Especially important is its role in advocating the consumer's point of view inside the organization.
分销和宣传部门可以按地理区域或市场细分进行组织。但是,如果其中一个部门按地理区域组织,另一个部门则应以市场细分为基础。
Distribution and advocacy units may be organized geographically or by market segmentation. However, if one is organized geographically, the other should be based on market segmentation.
输入、输出和市场平台形成一个交互的整体,参与不断地重新设计的过程,以根据需要自发地创建新的订单。
Input, output, and market platforms form an interactive whole engaged in an ongoing process of redesign to create new orders spontaneously as deemed necessary.
由于有目的的行为者之间的互动有多种形式(行为者可能在同一时间就某一对倾向进行合作,为其他倾向而竞争,并为另一组倾向而发生冲突),因此我们面对的是一个动态结构。此外,成员会随着时间的推移而学习、成熟和变化。其结果是形成了一个由具有多种关系的不同成员组成的互动网络,并不断自我重塑。
Because interactions among purposeful actors take many forms (actors may cooperate on one pair of tendencies, compete over others, and be in conflict over a different set, all at the same time), we are dealing with a dynamic structure. In addition members learn, mature, and change over time. The result is an interactive network of varying members with multiple relationships, re-creating itself continuously.
定义投入、产出和营销模块之间的关系是这一概念最关键的任务。当几个产出单位共享一个投入的重要服务或一个市场单位设置为间接费用中心时,就会遇到极大的困难。
Defining the relationships between input, output, and marketing modules is the most critical task of this conception. Extreme difficulties are encountered when several output units share the vital services of an input or a market unit setup as an overhead center.
矩阵组织的关键问题还在于如何管理输入和输出单元网络之间隐含的、模糊的和相互冲突的关系。“双老板制”不仅未能理解这一问题,还导致了混乱和挫败感。
The key problem of matrix organizations also has been management of the implicit, ambiguous, and conflicting relationships between the network of input and output units. The “two-boss system” not only has failed to understand the problem, but also has resulted in confusion and frustration.
虽然上级与下级的关系传统上一直是行使组织权力的唯一基石,但供应商与客户的关系为组织方程式带来了新的影响力。由于供应商与客户的关系只出现在内部市场环境中,无助的接受者变成了真正的客户。有了购买力,客户就变成了一个有权力的参与者,能够影响供应商并与供应商互动,这样双方就可以共同确定所提供服务的类型、成本、时间和质量。
While superior–subordinate relationships have traditionally been the only building block for exercising organizational authority, the supplier–customer relationship introduces a new source of influence into the organizational equation. With the supplier–customer relationship emerging only in an internal market environment, the helpless recipient becomes a real customer. Armed with purchasing power, the customer becomes an empowered actor with the ability to influence and interact with his/her supplier in such a way that both parties together can now define the type, cost, time, and quality of the services rendered.
建立内部市场机制,从而建立供应商-客户关系,取决于将共享服务转变为绩效中心。与管理中心不同,绩效中心不会从上层获得固定预算;它们拥有流动资金和可变的运营预算。在这种模式下,费用与服务水平产生的收入以及交换中获得的收入成正比。将所有单位视为绩效中心,可以以完全相同的方式评估每个级别的每个单位。
Creation of the internal-market mechanism, and thus a supplier–customer relationship, is contingent upon transforming the shared services into a performance center. Unlike overhead centers, performance centers do not receive a fixed budget allocated from the top; they have working capital with a variable operating budget. In this model, expenses are proportional to the income generated by the level of services rendered and the revenues received in their exchange. Treating all units as performance centers makes it possible to evaluate every unit at every level in exactly the same way.
这两对横向(供应商-客户)和纵向(上级-下级)关系是互补的,相互促进的。上级-下级定义了处理雇用、解雇和晋升的正式权力,而供应商-客户关系则创造了一种试图使需求合理化的新的影响力来源。
These two pairs of horizontal (supplier–customer) and vertical (superior–subordinate) relationships are complementary and reinforce one another. While superior–subordinate defines the formal authority dealing with hiring, firing, and promotion, the supplier–customer relationship creates a new source of influence that tries to rationalize demand.
在没有内部市场环境的情况下,没有内在机制来合理化需求。一个有第三方付款人的满意服务提供商会创造并助长无法满足的需求。另一方面,一个不满意的服务提供商会引发潜在用户大量重复提供相同的服务。这会导致管理费用激增,而运营本质上是成本加成。这种趋势是不合理的,纠正干预措施被证明是临时的,充其量是无效的。
In the absence of an internal-market environment, there is no built-in mechanism to rationalize demand. An agreeable service provider with a third-party payer creates and fuels an insatiable demand. A disagreeable service provider, on the other hand, triggers prolific duplications of the same services by the potential users. This results in an explosion of overhead expenses in the context of an essentially cost plus operation. The trend is irrational, and the corrective interventions prove to be ad hoc and ineffective at best.
建立内部市场不仅可以消除日益严重的官僚主义问题,而且可以为解决分配和评估问题提供有效手段。同时,它还可以通过迫使每个部分考虑其行为的市场后果,赋予组织市场导向。
Creating an internal market not only eliminates the growing problems of bureaucratization, but it also provides an effective means for dealing with allocation and evaluation problems. Meanwhile, it gives an organization a market orientation by forcing each part to consider the marketing consequences of its actions.
在内部市场环境中,模块应该可以选择从组织内部或外部销售或购买其所需的服务;否则,内部买家或卖家将拥有垄断优势。上级主管部门可以随时通过同意支付所产生的成本或利润损失来推翻外包。
In the internal-market environment, modules ought to have a choice of selling or buying their required services from inside or outside the organization; otherwise, internal buyers or sellers will have a monopolistic advantage. Higher level authority can always override outsourcing by agreeing to pay the cost incurred or the profit lost.
然而,尽管两种设计表面上相似,但它们之间存在显著差异。
However, despite the apparent similarities in the two designs, significant differences existed between them.
这就是为什么第二版使用颜色来区分各个部分并根据它们在组织中扮演的角色对它们进行分组。在这种情况下,一个部分可以承担投入、输出、市场准入或控制的功能。在这个特定案例中,绿色用于标识输出单元(产品市场部门),黄色用于标识投入(制造和工程),红色用于控制(财务和人力资源),蓝色用于市场准入(销售部门)。
This is why version two used color to differentiate the parts and group them according to the roles they would play in the organization. In this context, a part can assume the function of input, output, market access, or control. In this particular case, green was used to identify the output units (product–market divisions), yellow was chosen to identify the input (manufacturing and engineering), red was used for control (finance and human resources), and blue for market access (sales units).
1. 产出单位之间的竞争非常激烈,姐妹组织之间的敌意远高于与外部竞争对手之间的敌意。为了避免结构性冲突,产出单位应采用模块化结构,并具有足够的自主权和自给自足能力,几乎独立运作。
1. Output units are in such intense competition with one another that animosity among sister organizations is much higher than it is with outside competitors. To avoid structural conflict, output units should operate virtually independently of one another with a modular structure and adequate levels of autonomy and self-sufficiency.
2. 每个产出单位与投入和市场准入单位之间的关系是互补的。这与生产商与供应商或生产商与分销商之间的关系相同。它们之间必须建立有效的接口和全面合作才能产生有竞争力的产量。如果要让产出单位对最终结果和适当的运营整合负责,它必须对投入和市场准入单位都具有某种影响力,以影响它们的行为。
2. Relationships between each output unit with the input and market access units are complementary. It is the same relationship that exists between a producer and its suppliers or between a producer and its distributors. An effective interface with all-out cooperation between them is a must to generate a competitive throughput. If the output unit is to be held accountable for the ultimate outcome and proper integration of the operation, it must have some kind of leverage on both input and market access units to influence their behavior.
3. 控制单元与所有投入、产出和市场准入单元之间的关系是单向的,通常是官僚主义的,本质上或多或少是专制的。这就是为什么将服务功能与控制功能合并在一个单元中(通常以协调为借口)是一种注定失败的设计。例如,当人力资源、法律甚至信息服务等任何一项服务功能同时成为提供者和控制者时,控制和服务功能都会受到削弱。
3. The relationships between control units and all the input, output, and market access units are one way, usually bureaucratic, and more or less autocratic in nature. This is why combining a service function with a control function in a single unit, which is usually done under the pretext of coordination, is a design for failure. For example, when any one of the service functions like Human Resources, Legal, or even Information Services becomes provider and controller at the same time, both the control and service functions will be undermined.
最后,第一版的线性框架适合于系统架构的单维概念,其中产品、市场和技术根据其相对重要性按顺序排列。用于确定从属顺序的标准定义了替代设计之间的主要差异。第二版试图在技术(投入)、产品(产出)和市场(访问)之间建立互动关系。这需要多维结构。
Finally, the linear framework of version one lends itself to a unidimensional concept of system architecture where product, market, and technology are arranged in sequential order based on their relative importance. The criteria used for determining the order of subordination define the major differences between alternative designs. The second version tries to create an interactive relationship among technology (input), product (output), and market (access). This requires a multidimensional structure.
要创建多维结构,我们至少需要两种不同类型的关系。一对上级-下级组合只能产生单维结构;尽管有人声称矩阵组织是多维结构,但事实并非如此。双上司系统之所以失败,是因为它们会造成权力系统的混乱。在两种情况下使用上级-下级组合会造成挫败感,而不是互动。
To create a multidimensional structure we need at least two distinct types of relationships. A single superior–subordinate pair can produce only a unidimensional structure; despite claims to the contrary, a matrix organization is not a multidimensional design. Two-boss systems fail because they create confusion in the power system. Using the superior–subordinate pair in two contexts creates frustration, not interaction.
在内部市场机制的背景下,投入、产出和营销部门之间可以建立客户-供应商关系。如果正确实施,客户-供应商关系将有效地补充上下级关系,并为组织提供非常理想的市场导向。这意味着组织的每个部分都了解并承受其行为的营销后果。
Customer–provider relationships can be forged between input, output, and marketing units in the context of an internal market mechanism. If properly operationalized, the customer–provider relationship will effectively supplement the superior–subordinate pair and provide the organization with a much desired market orientation. This means each part of the organization understands and lives with the marketing consequences of its actions.
在本语境中,组织单位是一个绩效中心,是一条明确界定的价值链中的增值环节。虽然每个单位只有一个老板(与其所属系统之间存在上下级关系),但它可以有多个客户和供应商。客户是其营业收入的唯一来源。
The unit of organization, in this context, is a performance center, a value-adding link in a well-defined value chain. Although each unit has only a single boss (the superior–subordinate relationship with its containing system), it can have several customers and suppliers. Customers are the sole source of its operating income.
衡量每个单位绩效的标准不仅包括其自身的运营,还包括其对内部供应商的成功所做出的贡献。所有单位都有营运资金,并根据系统的吞吐量以可变预算运营。
The measure of each unit's performance includes not only its own operations but also the contribution it makes to the success of its internal suppliers. All units have working capital and operate on a variable budget dependent on the throughput of the system.
组织是一个系统,其主要缺陷源自其各部分之间的相互作用,而非各部分单独采取的行动。因此,单独提高组织各部分的绩效可能会降低整个组织的绩效,甚至很有可能。
An organization is a system whose major deficiencies arise from the way its parts interact, not from the actions of its parts taken separately. Therefore, it is possible, and even likely, that improving the performance of each part of an organization separately will bring down the organization's performance as a whole.
我们的设计必须在现有环境中可行。评估企业的生存能力需要一个测量系统。定义测量系统的特征是架构设计的最后一个连接部分。
Our design must be viable in the existing environment. To assess the viability of a business enterprise requires a measurement system. Defining the characteristics of the measurement system is the last connecting piece in the design of architecture.
绩效标准是对要衡量什么以及为什么衡量的表达(即如何定义成功)。选择过程包括确定与企业成功运营相关的维度和/或变量。
Performance criteria are the expression of what is to be measured and why (i.e., how success is defined). The selection process involves identifying dimensions and/or variables relevant to an enterprise's successful operation.
相关性是选择绩效变量时最重要的考虑因素。传统上,最受关注的是测量的准确性。由于我们很难准确测量我们想要的东西,所以我们选择想要那些我们能够准确测量的东西。不幸的是,错误标准的测量越准确,灾难之路就越快。与精确测量错误的变量相比,我们最好使用相关变量的近似值。
Relevancy is the most important concern in selecting performance variables. Traditionally, the overriding concern has been with the accuracy of measures. Because we find it difficult to accurately measure what we want, we have chosen to want what we can accurately measure. Unfortunately, the more accurate the measure of the wrong criteria, the faster the road to disaster. We are much better off with an approximation of relevant variables than with precise measurement of the wrong ones.
企业的生存能力是一种新兴属性。它是各种实体相互作用的产物。它无法直接测量(即使用五种感官中的任何一种)。我们只能测量其表现形式。增长是最受欢迎的,但有些人更喜欢投资回报率,而另一些人则喜欢未来现金流的净现值。不幸的是,使用现象的单一表现形式作为新兴属性的衡量标准已被证明具有误导性且成本高昂。例如,如果一家企业成功,它很可能会增长;然而,仅凭增长并不意味着该企业是成功的。相同的结果(表现形式)可以通过不同的方式产生。糟糕的收购可以产生高增长率,但同时也会摧毁公司。
Viability of a business enterprise is an emergent property. It is the product of the interactions of various entities. It cannot be measured directly (i.e., by using any of the five senses). We can only measure its manifestation. Growth is the most popular one, but some prefer return on investment while others like net present value of future cash flows. Unfortunately, using the single manifestation of a phenomenon as the measure of an emergent property has proved misleading and very costly. For example, if a business is successful, chances are it will grow; however, growth alone does not mean that the business is successful. The same outcome (manifestation) could be produced by different means. Lousy acquisitions can produce high rates of growth but at the same time destroy the company.
绩效衡量指标是每个变量的操作定义,即如何具体衡量每个变量。例如,如果我们已将产能利用率确定为绩效标准,那么周转率可能被指定为其衡量指标。现在我们需要一个计算周转率的程序(例如,将销售额除以资产,将收入除以资产,或将产出除以投入)。
Performance measures are the operational definition of each variable, that is, how each variable is to be measured specifically. For example, if we have identified capacity utilization as performance criteria, then turnover ratio might be designated as its measure. Now we would need a procedure for calculating turnover ratio (e.g., divide sales by assets, divide revenues by assets, or divide output by input).
在选择任何衡量标准时,一个重要的考虑因素是其简单性。进行测量的成本不应超过其产生的信息的价值。虽然客观衡量标准是首选,但如果获得客观衡量标准的成本过高,则应使用主观衡量标准。请记住,集体主观性就是客观性(前提是集体性代表了各种价值体系)。例如,在评估体操运动员的表现时,我们依靠许多不同裁判的集体判断。
An important consideration in selecting any measure is its simplicity. The cost of producing a measurement should not exceed the value of the information it generates. Although objective measures are preferable, if the cost of obtaining an objective measure is prohibitive, then use a subjective one. Remember that collective subjectivity is objectivity (provided that collectivity represents a variety of value systems). For example, in evaluating the performance of a gymnast we rely on the collective judgment of a number of different judges.
制定有效的绩效衡量标准说起来容易做起来难。很多时候,操作定义模糊不清,即使基本概念相对简单,例如最小化成本。将间接费用分配给各个运营部门的惯常做法表明,一个无心的便利行为会产生意想不到的后果。
Development of effective performance measures is easier said than done. More often than not the operational definitions are left vague and ambiguous, even when the underlying concepts are relatively simple, such as minimizing the cost. The usual practice of allocating overhead to various operating units demonstrates how an innocent matter of a convenience produces unintended consequences.
间接费用的分配标准通常基于传统观点。单位占用的空间或生产过程的劳动内容等因素是最受欢迎的因素之一。由于间接费用通常占总成本的 40% 以上,因此我们不应该惊讶地看到这些变量(空间和直接劳动力)是降低成本的目标。分配规则只是一种惯例这一事实已不再重要。一旦分配标准成为规则,它们与成本产生的关系就会默认为因果关系,如下例所示。
The criteria for allocation of overhead are usually based on conventional wisdom. Factors such as space occupied by a unit, or the labor content of a production process, are among the most popular ones. Since overhead usually constitutes more than 40% of the total cost, then we should not be surprised to see that these variables (space and direct labor) are the ones targeted for cost reductions. The fact that allocation rules were only a convention does not matter anymore. Once the allocation criteria become a rule, their relation with generation of cost, by default, is assumed to be causal, as demonstrated by the following case.
一家大型连锁超市决定关闭其十家门店,因为会计系统显示这些门店无法支付分配的间接费用。由于关闭门店对减少间接费用没有效果,剩下的门店现在必须承担更大份额的间接费用。这反过来又使一些门店陷入亏损,随后它们也被关闭。该公司逐渐退出市场。然后开发了一种新的设计。每家门店都负责自己的运营,而不必担心分配给它的任何人为间接费用。每家门店产生的盈余随后作为执行办公室的收入转交给公司。这使执行办公室成为一个利润中心,负责在其收入和满足其资本成本所需产生的利润范围内管理其运营或所谓的间接费用。
A large supermarket chain decided to close down ten of its stores because the accounting system showed they were not covering their allocated overheads. Since the shutdown had no effect in reducing overhead, the remaining stores now had to carry a larger share of the overhead. This in turn put a few more of the stores in the red, and they too were subsequently closed. The company was gradually withdrawing from the market. Then a new design was developed. Each store became responsible for its own operation without having to worry about any artificial overhead allocated to it. The surplus generated by each store was then passed on to the corporation as the income of the executive office. This made the executive office a profit center responsible for managing its operation, or so-called overhead, within the bounds of its income and the profit it needed to generate to meet the cost of its capital.
这种情况绝非罕见。随着基于劳动力的分配规则盛行,压力被过度转移到直接劳动力身上。默认的反应是裁减生产性人力。如果警察部门面临赤字,警察将首先被解雇。如果学校陷入财务困境,教师人数就会减少。减少运营单位并不会自动减少管理费用,管理层似乎认为如此。相反,它会增加剩余单位的负担,直到整个系统陷入停顿。在 20 世纪 70 年代中期,当人均收入是衡量发展的传统指标时,石油价格的突然上涨立即产生了发达国家。由于这是不可接受的,因此必须制定一套新的指标。我们现在有一系列替代发展的指标,例如人均钢铁产量、人均燃料消耗量等等。因此,发现旨在改善这些指标的国家发展政策并不奇怪,这些政策通常要付出整个社会难以置信的代价。是的,获胜很有趣。但要获胜,就必须保持得分。而记分的方式则决定了比赛的结果。
This situation is by no means atypical. With the prevalence of allocation rules based on labor, pressure is unduly shifted to direct labor. The default reaction is to lay off productive manpower. If the police department is facing deficits, policemen are the first to be fired. If schools are in financial trouble, the number of teachers is reduced. Reduction of operating units does not automatically reduce overhead, as management seems to assume. On the contrary, it will increase the burden of the remaining units until the whole system comes to a halt. In the mid-1970s, when per capita income was the conventional measure of development, sudden increases in oil prices produced instantly developed nations. Since this was not acceptable, a new set of indicators had to be developed. We now have a whole series of indicators that substitute for development, such as per capita steel production, per capita consumption of fuel, and so forth. It is not surprising, then, to find national development policies aimed at improving these measures, usually at an incredible cost to the society at large. Yes, winning is fun. But to win, one has to keep score. And the way one keeps score defines the game.
该矩阵的第一维确定了定义整个组织的变量:
The first dimension of this matrix identifies the variables that define the organization as a whole:
• 结构(输入)
• Structure (inputs)
• 功能(输出)
• Function (outputs)
• 环境(市场)
• Environment (markets)
• 流程(技术)
• Process (technology)
可行性矩阵的第二个维度确定了定义整个管理系统的流程:
The second dimension of the viability matrix identifies the processes that define the totality of the management system:
• 产量(产出量)
• Throughput (production of the outputs)
• 协同作用(管理互动、增加价值)
• Synergy (management of interactions, adding value)
• 延迟(定义问题和设计解决方案)
• Latency (defining problems and designing solutions)
• 交互设计是设计师将最激动人心的未来愿景付诸实践的过程。它是设计出下一代系统来取代现有秩序。
• Interactive design is a process for operationalizing the most exciting vision of the future that the designers are capable of producing. It is the design of the next generation of their system to replace the existing order.
• 生产量流程的设计本质上是由技术驱动的,而组织流程的设计则取决于所使用的范例。
• Design of a throughput process is essentially technology driven, whereas design of organizational processes depends on the paradigm in use.
• 获胜很有趣,但要想获胜,就必须记录得分。记录得分的方式决定了比赛的结果。
• Winning is fun, but to win, one has to keep score. And the way one keeps score defines the game.
• 实现工作并非一次性任务。下一代设计的连续逼近构成了转型工作的演进过程。
• The realization effort is not a one-time proposition. Successive approximations of the next generation design make up the evolutionary process by which the transformation effort is conducted.
介绍
Introduction
我的非凡旅程始于 20 世纪 60 年代初。当时我正在加州大学伯克利分校学习机械工程,中波斯研究领域的世界权威 Walter B. Henning 教授选择我帮助他开发一个中波斯文化项目。那次经历重新塑造了我对文化及其在塑造人类系统中的重要性的理解。在与 Henning 共事两年后,我知道自己不能再只是一名机械工程师了。幸运的是,伯克利当时正在尝试系统工程。在参加了控制论、信息论和系统设计的入门课程后,有人建议我加入 IBM,如果我想继续从事这一领域的话。
My phenomenal journey started in the early 1960s. I was studying mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley when Professor Walter B. Henning, the world's authority in middle-Persian studies, chose me to help him develop a program in middle-Persian culture. That experience re-formed my understanding of culture and its significance in shaping human systems. After two years of working with Henning, I knew I could not be merely a mechanical engineer anymore. Fortunately, Berkeley was experimenting at the time with systems engineering. After enrolling in an introductory program in cybernetics, information theory, and systems design, I was advised to join IBM if I wanted to pursue this line further.
我很幸运。IBM 给了我所希望的机会。在 IBM 教育中心接受了五年 1,800 小时的正式培训后,我走上了成为系统工程师的道路。但正是 20 年的交往以及与 Russ Ackoff 的合作——以及对他严苛、不妥协的标准的所有欣赏——让我成为了一名系统设计师。
I was lucky. IBM gave me the opportunity I was hoping for. After five years and 1,800 hours of formal training at IBM education centers, I was on the path to becoming a systems engineer. But it was 20 years of association and finally a partnership with Russ Ackoff — and all that it takes to appreciate his tough, uncompromising standards — that made me a systems designer.
我曾在各种环境和文化中实践过迭代设计,包括美国、日本和南非的印第安部落。我甚至经历过一场革命。但在所有情况下,我都可以自由选择客户,只为我喜欢的客户工作。因此,每个案例对我来说都有特殊的意义,在我的职业生涯中占有特殊的地位。
I have practiced iterative design in a variety of contexts and cultures, including Indian tribes in America, Japan, and South Africa. I have even survived a revolution. But in all cases, I have had the luxury of choosing my clients and working only for those I liked. As a result, each case has a special meaning for me and a particular place in shaping my professional life.
多年来,我从客户身上学到的东西比我教给他们的还多。在客户中做出选择并不容易。例如,在美国铝业公司 (ALCOA) 工作八年是一段非凡的学习经历,尽管咨询工作充满挑战。由查理·利根 (Charlie Ligon) 领导的材料科学集团 (MSG) 面临的挑战是利用美国铝业公司实验室开发的技术创建五家新的创业公司。查理是一位要求严格、受人尊敬的领导者,也是一位好朋友。肯·布莱文斯 (Ken Blevins)(美国铝业公司电子封装总裁)和约翰·斯塔 (John Star)(美国铝业公司分离公司总裁)是勤奋、敬业且能干的经理。他们把我视为他们中的一员,让我有机会亲身体验在传统的、不兼容的环境中创建高科技创业公司的挫折、情绪起伏和挑战。这段经历让我明白了为什么管理技术业务的平台应该不同于管理产品业务的平台。
Over the years, I have learned more from my clients than I have taught them. Selecting among them has not been easy. For example, eight years with ALCOA (Aluminum Company of America) was a phenomenal learning experience, as challenging as consulting work can be. The challenge at Material Science Group (MSG), headed by Charlie Ligon, was to create five new startup businesses using technologies developed in the ALCOA lab. Charlie was a demanding, respected leader and a great friend. Ken Blevins (president of ALCOA Electronic Packaging) and John Star (president of ALCOA Separation Company) were hardworking, committed, and competent managers. Accepting me as one of their own, they gave me the opportunity to experience firsthand the frustrations, emotional ups and downs, and challenges of creating a high-tech startup business in a conventional, incompatible environment. The experience taught me why the platform for managing a technology business ought to be different from the platform established to manage product businesses.
在与克拉克设备公司和工业卡车部门总裁加里贝拉合作的过程中,我学会了不要低估分销渠道的价值,并意识到有效的市场管理需要一个独特的平台。
Working with Clark Equipment Company and Gary Bella, president of the Industrial Truck Division, I learned not to underestimate the value of distribution channels and realized that effective management of the markets requires a distinct platform.
Super Fresh 总裁杰瑞·古兹 (Jerry Goods) 和文职工作人员联盟 (Clerical Workers Union) 主席温德尔·杨 (Wendell Young) 用他们的勇气再次证实了对理想未来的共同形象具有多么强大的力量。
Jerry Goods, president of Super Fresh, and Wendell Young, president of the Clerical Workers Union, with their courage reconfirmed how powerful a shared image of a desired future could be.
我选择更详细地回顾奥奈达民族、巴特沃斯医疗系统、联邦能源系统、万豪集团和开利集团的设计,原因如下:
I have selected to review in more detail the designs of the Oneida Nation, Butterworth Health System, Commonwealth Energy Systems, Marriott Corporation, and Carrier Corporation for the following reasons:
• 五家公司都从这些项目的累积智慧中获益匪浅。在这五家公司的设计中,建筑都被用作一组独特但相互关联的平台。每个平台都代表一种独特的行为模式,具有一组预定义的性能标准和指标。
• All five have benefited from the cumulative wisdom of these projects. In all five designs, architecture has been used as a set of distinct but interrelated platforms. Each platform signifies a unique mode of behavior with a predefined set of performance criteria and measures.
• 所有设计都各有不同,代表了最先进的水平。它们共同代表了人们关注的主要领域。医疗保健领域的艰难时期、全球制造业的激烈竞争、能源管制的放松、房地产市场的崩溃以及发展的挑战似乎与大多数潜在读者息息相关。
• In their diversity, all of the designs represent the state-of-the-art. They collectively represent the major areas of concern. Trying times in health care, tough competition in global manufacturing, deregulation of energy, the collapse of real estate, and the challenges of development seem relevant to the majority of potential readers.
第十章 奥奈达民族
Chapter ten. The Oneida Nation
奥奈达族项目非常精彩。这可能是我参与过的最令人心满意足的项目之一。奥奈达族人无疑是最善良、最热情、最迷人的人。他们把我们当成自己的家人,我们也尽最大努力回报他们。
The Oneida Nation project has been a beauty. It is probably one of the most emotionally satisfying projects I have worked on. Oneidas certainly have been the kindest, warmest, and most fascinating people to work with. They have treated us as their own and in return we have given them our best.
奥奈达设计团队的成员慷慨地贡献了自己的时间和想法,他们是 Neil Cornelius(游戏总经理)、Debra Doxtator(主席)、Kathy Hughes(财务主管)和 Bruce King(首席财务官)。Artly Skenandore(总经理)对语言和文化有着深厚的了解,并且具有令人难以置信的学习能力和学习欲望,为过去和未来提供了重要的联系。
The members of the Oneida design team who have given their time and ideas generously are Neil Cornelius (general manager, gaming), Debra Doxtator (chairperson), Kathy Hughes (treasurer), and Bruce King (CFO). Artly Skenandore (general manager), with his profound knowledge of the language and the culture and an incredible ability and desire to learn, provided the critical link between past and future.
工作团队的成员包括 Jacque Boyle、Elaine Cornelius、Michelle Cornelius、Toni House、Jessica Oudenhoven、Diana Peterson、Terry Pouliquen 和 Jackie Smith,他们的奉献、支持和辛勤工作使这个项目得以实现。最后,我们能干的项目经理 Kathy King 以她足够的谦虚、真诚和洞察力将我们团结在一起,完成了这项任务。
The members of the work team, whose commitment, support, and hard work made this project possible, include Jacque Boyle, Elaine Cornelius, Michelle Cornelius, Toni House, Jessica Oudenhoven, Diana Peterson, Terry Pouliquen, and Jackie Smith. Finally, our able project manager, Kathy King, kept us all together with her ample modesty, sincerity, and insight to finish the task.
我的老朋友兼同事 Bijan Khorram 曾与我合作完成本书所选的四项设计中的三项。仅凭这一点就足以说明他对成果的宝贵贡献。
My old friend and colleague Bijan Khorram has been my partner in three of the four designs selected for this book. That alone should say all that is necessary about his valuable contribution to the outcomes.
该项目仍在进行中。此处展示的设计版本是第五次迭代的成果。
This is yet an ongoing project. The version of the design presented here is the outcome of the fifth iteration.
以下一组属性代表了期望的规范集,有望指导预期设计的开发。
The following set of properties represents the desired set of specifications that are expected to guide the development of the intended design.
1. 我们希望从历史中汲取教训,并将其与当今新兴的价值观相结合,创造一种成功的生活方式,为其他社区树立榜样。
1. We would like to learn from our history and combine it with today's emerging values to create a successful way of life that will be a model for other communities to follow.
2. 我们希望建立一种社会秩序:
2. We would like to create a social order that would:
• 同时鼓励促进个性发展所需的社会融合和差异化,同时注意集体认同
• Simultaneously encourage social integration and differentiation needed to promote individuality while being mindful of collective identity
• 有效地生产商品和服务并公平分配,同时确保过去、现在和后代的利益相一致
• Produce goods and services effectively and distribute them equitably while ensuring compatibility among the interests of past, present, and future generations
• 识别、开发和运用核心竞争力,使我们脱颖而出并取得竞争/比较优势
• Identify, develop, and operationalize core competencies that give us distinction and competitive/comparative advantage
• 利用我们的核心价值观的精髓,并使我们能够根据当前现实和新出现的挑战的要求不断发展它们
• Capitalize on the essence of our core values and enable us to evolve them in response to the requirements of present realities and emerging challenges
• 鼓励系统对新学习、实验和多样化保持开放
• Encourage the openness of the system to new learning, experimentation, and diversification
• 为我们提供机会照顾我们自己和那些无法满足基本需求的人
• Provide us with opportunities to take care of our own and those unable to fend for their basic needs
3. 我们希望国家以如下方式为其成员和环境服务:
3. We would like to see the Nation serve its members and its environment in such a way that:
• 它将投射出一种群体认同,从而产生内部承诺和外部尊重。
• It would project a group identity that will generate internal commitment and external respect.
• 我们将成为一个开放的文化,渴望与他人分享我们丰富的传统,同时努力学习和了解其他文化,以便我们能够建立互惠互利的关系。
• We would be an open culture with a desire to share our rich traditions with others while trying to learn and understand other cultures so we can create mutually beneficial relationships.
• 将有一个互补的教育体系,为每个成员提供个人和职业发展的机会,并充分发挥其潜力。
• There would be a complementary educational system to provide each member with opportunities to develop both personally and professionally and aspire to his/her full potential.
• 我们将为国家每个成员创造就业机会,使所有人都能积极生产商品和服务,从而提高我们的生活质量。
• We would create employment opportunities for each member of our Nation so all can be productively active in generating goods and services that will enhance the quality of our lives.
• 这将为我们的人民提供一个参与和有意义的互动的平台,以便我们能够共同建设一个统一的国家,对未来有共同的愿景,使领导人能够有效地追求和实现我们的梦想。
• There would be a platform for participation and meaningful interaction among our people so that together we can build an integrated Nation with a shared vision of a desired future to empower leaders to effectively pursue and realize our dreams.
• 我们将成为一个拥有自决权和自力更生能力、摆脱单方面依赖的主权国家。
• We would be a sovereign nation with self-determination and self-reliance free from one-sided dependencies.
• 在与地方、州和联邦当局建立的各种关系中,我们都将是平等、同等高度的合作伙伴。
• We would be equal partners, of the same height, in every kind of relationship we forge with local, state, and federal authorities.
• 我们希望成为我们选择居住的每一个社区的首选邻居、我们选择作为供应商的每一个提供商的首选客户、以及选择使用我们产品和服务的每一个客户的首选供应商。
• We would be a preferred neighbor in every community we choose to live in, a preferred customer for every provider we choose as our supplier, and a preferred supplier for every customer who chooses to use our products and services.
• 我们将通过外包环境提供的更具成本效益的服务来充分利用我们有限的资源,而不会给国家带来过度的脆弱性。
• We would make the most of our limited resources by outsourcing those services offered more cost-effectively by the environment without imposing undue vulnerability on the Nation.
• 我们将在生活中的物质成就和精神满足之间取得平衡。
• We would strike a balance between the material achievement and spiritual fulfillment in our lives.
奥奈达民族的架构由七个维度组成:五个运营维度、一个治理维度和一个司法维度。架构的所有维度都在商业委员会的指导和领导下运作。它们被确定为
The Oneida Nation's architecture consists of seven dimensions: five operating, one governing, and one judicial. All dimensions of the architecture function under the guidance and leadership of a Business Committee. They are identified as
• 治理
• Governance
• 会员系统
• Membership systems
• 学习系统
• Learning systems
• 业务系统
• Business systems
• 核心服务
• Core services
• 外部环境
• External environment
• 司法系统
• Judicial system
这七个维度被认为是建立一个能够实现其期望标准的可行国家所必需的和充分的。
These seven dimensions are identified as necessary and sufficient to create a viable nation capable of realizing its desired specifications.
五个运营维度中的任何一个都不应从属于其他维度。每个维度都必须得到同等的重视,并以同样的力度去追求。然而,这些维度的绩效标准不一定相同。例如,核心服务维度中的单位将是绩效中心(其预算将基于总吞吐量的给定百分比),而业务维度中的单位将全部是利润中心。从长远来看,建立新的社会计算应该在与整个系统的利益相兼容的范围内,促进从成本到绩效的转变,并最终转向以利润为中心的运营模式,最终使它们从投入导向走向产出导向。
None of the five operating dimensions should be subordinate to the others. Each one must be treated with the same attention and pursued with the same vigor as the others. However, the performance criteria for these dimensions will not necessarily be the same. For example, whereas units in the core services dimension will be performance centers (their budget will be based on a given percentage of total throughput), the units in the business dimension will all be profit centers. Creation of a new social calculus, in the long term, should facilitate, to the extent that it will be compatible with the interests of the system as a whole, the shift from cost to performance and, eventually, to a profit-centered mode of operation, ultimately maturing them from an input to an output orientation.
为了体现 BC 扩大的治理职责,其名称将更改为管理机构 (GB)。在新形式下,GB 将越来越多地集中其立法和政策制定权,并将其部分行政职责和司法职能下放至架构的相关平台。
To reflect the expanded governance responsibility of BC, its name will be changed to the Governing Body (GB). In the new format, the GB will increasingly concentrate on its legislative and policy setting authority and relegate parts of its executive responsibility and judicial function to the relevant platforms of the architecture.
为了加强全球政府的监督权威,并在每个平台适当地复制其权力,将在每个平台上建立一个规划、学习和控制委员会 (PLCB)。全球政府的指定成员和参谋长将加入每个平台的董事会。PLCB 的创建和组成将有效地使系统同时集中和分散。全球政府的活动重点放在立法、政策制定和监督上,同时将其部分行政权力下放给行政办公室和运营平台,将增强系统的决策能力并提高其响应能力。将司法责任委托给独立的司法系统也将是朝着适当分离司法权和行政权迈出的可喜一步。这种分离也将起到安全阀的作用。它将把大部分冲突引导到它们所属的司法系统,从而使政治系统摆脱成为吸收两极化国家压力的唯一渠道的难以维持的局面。
To enhance the monitoring authority of the GB and properly duplicate its power in each platform, a Planning, Learning, and Control Board (PLCB) will be established on each platform. A designated member of the GB and the chief of staff will be on the board of each platform. Creation and composition of the PLCBs will effectively empower the system to be centralized and decentralized at the same time. The focus of GB activities on legislation, policy setting, and oversight, along with the relegation of some of its executive authority to the executive office and operating platforms, will enhance the decision-making ability of the system and increase its responsiveness. Delegation of the judicial responsibility to an independent judicial system will also be a welcome move toward proper separation of judicial and executive powers. This separation will also serve as a safety valve. It will channel a major portion of the conflicts to the judicial system where they belong, thus relieving the political system from the untenable situation of being the only channel to absorb the pressures of a polarized nation.
治理平台将包括
The governance platform will consist of
• 英国
• GB
• 参谋长
• Chief of staff
• 规划、学习和控制系统 (PLCS)
• Planning, Learning, and Control System (PLCS)
• PLCB
• PLCB
GB 是奥奈达民族的最高民选权力机构。它代表全体成员和 GTC,是民族的主要立法机构和治理机构。它将任命参谋长、批准 PLCS 董事和总经理的任命,并协调和监督运营平台和司法系统的活动。
The GB is the highest elected authority of the Oneida Nation. On behalf of the membership at large and the GTC, it acts as the main legislative body and the governing authority of the Nation. It will appoint the chief of staff, approve the appointment of the directors of the PLCS and general managers, and coordinate and monitor the activities of the operating platforms and judicial system.
参谋长将重点管理两组互动:(1)内部互动,即建筑层面;(2)外部互动,即奥奈达与周围环境之间的互动。参谋长将帮助定义和建立围绕一套持久的核心理念、宗旨和价值观的共识,这些理念、宗旨和价值观将指导和激励组织文化,使其与自身、使命和社区相关。
The chief of staff will focus on managing two sets of interactions: (1) internally, dimensions of architecture and (2) externally, between Oneida and its environment. The chief of staff will help define and build consensus around an enduring set of core ideals, purposes, and values that will guide and inspire the organizational culture in relation to itself, its mission, and its community.
参谋长还将负责
The chief of staff will also be responsible to
• 定期进行系统分析,并向 GB 和全体会员提交餐饮配方报告
• Conduct periodic systems analyses and submit Mess Formulation reports to the GB and the membership at large
• 确保该系统及其组成部分的需求在对国家使命的贡献方面得到优先考虑
• Make sure that the needs of the system and its constituent parts are prioritized in terms of their contribution to the national mission
• 制定并推荐假设和政策,以确定社会指标并设定系统的预期方向和工作生活质量
• Develop and recommend assumptions and policies that will identify the social indicators and set the expected direction and quality of work life of the system
• 帮助制定和推荐与维持高水平工作生活质量相一致的组织和部门标准和绩效衡量标准
• Help develop and recommend organizational and departmental standards and measures of performance that are consistent with maintaining a high level of quality of work life
• 对系统当前和应急计划进行整体质量保证审计
• Conduct holistic quality assurance audits of the current and contingency game plans of the system
为了协助参谋长履行治理职责,将设立PLCS。PLCS将由一组专家组成,他们被分配并负责三个互补的活动:财务系统、技术系统和人力系统。
To assist the chief of staff in carrying out the responsibilities of governance, a PLCS will be created. It will consist of a group of experts who are assigned to and operate in three complementary activities: financial system, technical system, and human system.
财务系统主任负责确保奥奈达的财务资源安全且合理使用。主任将制定财务政策,并在获得 GB 批准后监督其实施。为此,主任将:
The director of financial systems is responsible for making sure that the financial resources of Oneida are safe and their utilization sound. The director will develop financial policies and monitor their implementation, once approved by the GB. To do that, the director will:
• 制定并推荐有关金融资源运营和管理的标准、假设和期望
• Develop and recommend the criteria, assumptions, and expectations with regard to the operation and management of financial resources
• 制定并推荐资源配置和管理的财务政策
• Develop and recommend financial policies for resource allocation and management
• 制定并推荐资源利用的标准和绩效衡量标准
• Develop and recommend the standards and measures of performance for resource utilization
• 识别系统性偏差并采取纠正措施
• Identify systemic deviations and initiate corrective action
• 监控资金流动并发挥预警系统的作用
• Monitor flows of funds and act as an early warning system
• 优先考虑系统及其各部分的投资和撤资需求
• Prioritize the investment and divestment needs of the system and its parts
• 对财务系统的可行性进行整体和部门质量保证审计并评估其有效性
• Conduct holistic and departmental quality assurance audits of the viability of financial systems and assess their effectiveness
• 提供 PLCB 履行综合管理职能所需的信息
• Provide the information required by the PLCB to carry out its integrative management function
财务系统总监除了管理核心财务专家外,还将监督总会计、补助金和内部审计的运作。
The director of financial systems, in addition to managing its core of financial experts, will supervise the operations of general accounting, grants, and internal audits.
技术系统总监除了管理核心技术专家外,还将监督信息系统的运行。其他职能包括:
The director of technical systems, in addition to managing its core of technical experts, will supervise the operations of the information system. Other functions include:
• 帮助和促进系统架构的开发和吞吐量系统的详细设计
• Help and facilitate development of the system architecture and a detailed design of throughput systems
• 倡导和协调制定和推荐适当的标准和措施,以确保组织有效性
• Advocate and coordinate the development and recommendation of the proper standards and measures for assuring organizational effectiveness
• 监控并确保有关系统管理和运营的政策一旦制定,就能得到相关人员的正确实施
• Monitor and make sure that policies regarding system management and operations, once established, are properly implemented by those involved
• 制定并推荐有关信息收集、操作、整合、传播和管理的政策
• Develop and recommend policies regarding the collection, operation, integration, dissemination, and management of information
• 制定并推荐管理信息系统的标准和绩效衡量标准
• Develop and recommend the standards and measures of performance for managing information systems
人力系统总监除了管理核心人力系统专家外,还将监督人力资源部 (HRD) 和通讯部门的运营,还将:
The director of human systems, in addition to managing its core of human system experts, will supervise the operations of the Human Resources Department (HRD) and communications, and will also:
• 定义规范、指令和价值观,以吸引、维持和激励最合格、最忠诚和最高效的劳动力,从而确保系统的持续成功
• Define the specifications, directives, and values by which the most qualified, committed, and productive workforce can be attracted, maintained, and motivated to ensure the continued success of the system
• 监测重大人类系统趋势并发挥预警系统的作用
• Monitor significant human systems trends and act as an early warning system
• 倡导、促进和协调人力资源政策的制定和建议,如招聘、培训、薪酬和福利、职业发展和相关问题
• Advocate, facilitate, and coordinate the development and recommendation of the human resource policies such as hiring, training, compensation and benefits, career development, and related issues
为了实现兼容性并管理建筑的五个操作维度之间的相互作用,需要一种综合功能。这种综合功能是系统治理的关键要素,将包括制定总体规划和有关每个维度绩效的一般指导方针。
To create compatibility and manage the interactions among the five operating dimensions of architecture, an integrative function is needed. This integrative function, the critical element of the governance of the system, will include development of master plans and general guidelines concerning the performance of each dimension.
PLCB 的成员将包括 GB 主席、参谋长、财务主管、财务系统、技术系统和人力系统的主管以及五位总经理 (GM),每一位总经理代表一个运营平台。PLCB 负责 (1) 定义问题、(2) 设计解决方案和 (3) 就 GB 批准的政策和决策标准提出建议。然而,PLCB 的主要功能是创造会员系统、学习系统、业务系统、核心服务系统和环境系统之间的协同作用。
The members of the PLCB will consist of the chairperson of the GB, the chief of staff, the treasurer, the directors of financial systems, technical systems, and human systems, and the five general managers (GMs), each representing one of the operating platforms. The PLCB is responsible for (1) defining problems, (2) designing solutions, and (3) making recommendations regarding policies and decision criteria to be approved by the GB. However, the primary function of the PLCB will be to create synergy among the operations of the membership systems, learning systems, business systems, core services systems, and environmental systems.
这里所指的控制性质,是将传统的控制概念从“监督”重新概念化为“学习”,将权威的性质从“权力”重新概念化为“行动”。有效的控制涉及权力的复制。如果决策过程而非单个决策者成为控制的对象,那么权力的复制就会实现。当决策者集体形成对各个维度决策标准的共同理解和所有权时,就会发生这种情况。
The nature of control, as intended here, reconceptualizes the traditional notion of control from “supervision” to “learning” and the nature of authority from “power-over” to “power-to-do.” Effective control involves the duplication of power. Duplication of power will be achieved if the decision process, rather than the individual decision maker, is the subject of control. This will happen when decision makers collectively develop a shared understanding and ownership of decision criteria in all dimensions.
学习源于惊讶:发现预期发生的事与实际发生的事不匹配。如果一个人理解了不匹配发生的原因(诊断),并能够避免将来再次发生不匹配(处方),那么他就学会了。
Learning results from being surprised: detecting a mismatch between what was expected to happen and what actually did happen. If one understands why the mismatch occurred (diagnosis) and is able to avoid a mismatch in the future (prescription), one has learned.
学习将包括一个预警系统,该系统将在问题发生之前要求采取纠正措施。该系统将持续监控决策所依据的假设的有效性、实施过程和中间结果。
Learning will include an early warning system that will call for corrective action before the problem has occurred. Such a system will monitor, on an ongoing basis, the validity of the assumptions on which the decision was made, the implementation process, and intermediate results.
会员制与国家建设有关。会员制为参与提供了一个平台,有助于化解冲突、创造共同的理想未来形象,并赋予领导人代表选民有效和果断采取行动的权力。
The membership systems are about nation building. Membership provides a platform for participation to dissolve conflict, create a shared image of a desired future, and empower leaders to act effectively and decisively on behalf of their constituents.
赋权不是分享权力。分享意味着零和关系,因此意味着权力的放弃。赋权是权力的复制。它要求集体理解我们做事的原因。这种共同理解不仅使成员能够和谐行动,而且使领导者能够代表其人民有效而果断地采取行动。
Empowerment is not about sharing of power. Sharing implies a zero-sum relationship and, therefore, abdication of power. Empowerment is duplication of power. It requires a collective understanding of the reasons why we are doing what we are doing. Such a shared understanding not only empowers the members to act in harmony, but also empowers the leaders to act effectively and decisively on behalf of their people.
领导的作用与人民的作用同样重要。领导者不能抛弃人民或落后于人民。领导者的权力取决于他们在人民中赢得的信任和支持程度。支持或信任并不一定要求一致或统一。这意味着成员可以同意不同意,只要他们理解决策标准并愿意承担集体决策的后果。发展这种政治成熟度,即将二分法转化为互补的能力,将是会员网络的核心目标。
The role of leadership is as critical here as the role of the people. The leader cannot afford to leave the people behind or fall behind them. The leaders are empowered to the degree of trust and support they generate among their people. The support or trust does not necessarily require conformity or uniformity. It means that members can agree to disagree, providing they understand the decision criteria and are willing to live with the consequences of collective decisions. Development of this political maturity, an ability to convert dichotomy to complementarity, will be the central aim of the membership network.
两极分化也许是传统社会在转型边缘最具阻碍性的特征。事件的发展,无论是自愿的还是非自愿的,都使传统的解决方案变得无效,使传统的领导者-追随者关系的有效性受到质疑。在这种情况下,传统与现代、集体与个性、资本形成与消费、开放与封闭之间看似无法解决的二分法将人们推向对立的阵营。这种两极分化的负面后果不仅表现为明显的沟通中断,而且最重要的是,表现为隐藏的瘫痪感和普遍的无力行动。在国家必须处于最积极主动模式的时候,它倾向于宽恕(善意的忽视)而不是化解冲突(寻求互补)。成员维度的目的是赋予国家权力,使其摆脱这种困境。
Polarization is, perhaps, the most obstructive feature of a traditional society on the verge of transformation. The march of events, voluntary or not, makes the conventional solutions ineffective, calling into question the efficacy of the traditional leader–follower relationships. Under these circumstances, the seemingly irresolvable dichotomies between tradition versus modernity, collectivity versus individuality, capital formation versus consumption, and openness versus closedness drive the people into opposite camps. The negative consequence of this polarization manifests itself not only in an obvious breakdown of communication, but, most important, in the hidden sense of paralysis and widespread inability to act. At a time when the Nation must be in its most proactive mode, it tends to absolve (benign neglect) rather than dissolve the conflicts (seek complementarities). The purpose of the membership dimension is to empower the Nation out of this dilemma.
体系与集合体的区别在于,将分散的要素联系在一起的纽带。将一个国家凝聚在一起的最强大的纽带是对未来理想的共同想象,以及一套反映体系独特历史经验和价值体系精髓的组织原则。
The distinction between a system and an aggregate is the bond that ties the otherwise scattered elements together. The strongest bond that holds a nation together is a shared image of a desired future and a set of organizing principles reflecting the essence of the system's unique historical experiences and its value system.
成员维度提供了处理政治赋权、参与、合法性、建立共识、自决和主权的结构和流程。因此,成员维度是架构中最关键的维度。从某种意义上说,它与国家本身有关。直接参与创造了一种国家意识;从而创造了一种环境,在这个环境中,成员可以并且将会对系统的演变产生影响。
The membership dimension provides structures and processes that deal with political empowerment, participation, legitimacy, consensus building, self-determination, and sovereignty. As such, the membership dimension is the most critical dimension of the architecture. In a sense, it is about the Nation itself. Direct involvement creates a feeling of nationhood; thereby it makes an environment in which members can and will make a difference in the evolution of the system.
建立一个可行的社会体系的真正挑战是能够在多样性中创造统一,满足在相互依存的整体中运作的独立成员的不同利益。就一系列组织原则达成一致将使国家能够尽管存在多样性而采取行动。社会对整合的需求与个人对差异化的需求一样合理。整合和差异化是同一枚硬币的两面。单独来看,它们会自我毁灭。在一起,它们会产生协同作用。
The real challenge to building a viable social system is the ability to create unity in diversity, meeting the varying interests of independent members operating in an interdependent whole. Generation of agreement on a series of organizing principles will permit the Nation to act in spite of its diversity. Society's need for integration is as legitimate as an individual's need for differentiation. Integration and differentiation are two sides of the same coin. Alone, they self-destruct. Together, they synergize.
以牺牲个性为代价的集体主义会导致极权主义和窒息。以牺牲集体为代价的个人主义会导致混乱和社会达尔文主义。从长远来看,社会和个人要么站在一起,要么各自衰落。双赢关系不是通过零和博弈甚至妥协来实现的。要让双方都赢,就需要重新认识整体和部分的性质和关系。你不可能用被贬低的人来建立一个伟大的社会,就像你不可能在一个被贬低的社会中培养出伟大的人一样。每个人的伟大都是以对方为前提的。应该创造一种环境,让每个人都能通过帮助别人来帮助自己。
Collectivity at the expense of individuality leads to totalitarianism and suffocation. Individualism at the expense of collectivity leads to chaos and social Darwinism. In the long run, the society and the individual either stand together or fall separately. A win/win relationship is achieved not through zero-sum or even compromise. For both of them to win requires reconceptualization of the nature and the relationship of the whole and the parts. You cannot build a great society with belittled people just as you cannot build great people in a belittled society. The greatness of each is preconditioned by the other. An environment should be created in which each can help itself by helping the other.
再次强调,这个问题不是自我强加的过去与未来的选择;答案很简单,尽管后果很严重。根和翅膀对一个有生存能力的国家来说都是必不可少的。任何一方都不应该以牺牲另一方为代价。飞翔的需要不应该意味着无根,就像依附的需要不应该否定飞翔的需要一样。
Once again, the question is not a self-imposed choice between the past and the future; that answer would be an easy one, albeit with disastrous consequences. Roots as well as wings are indispensable to a viable nation. None should come at the expense of the other. The need to fly should not mean rootlessness, just as the need to attach should not negate the need for flight.
会员网络的设计将由嵌套会员单元的多级网络组成。每个单元将有九名成员,他们将参与审议过程,以对国家面临的现实达成共识。通过合作,单元成员将尝试了解背景(环境如何演变)、定义问题(制定混乱情况)并提出建议的解决方案(设计解决方案)。一旦达成一致,每个单元的结果将被传递给较低级别的单元进行进一步审议或传递给较高级别的单元与其他单元进行整合。该过程将持续进行,直到国家面临的所有关键问题都被收集、审议、解决并被会员网络不同级别参与各自单元的所有活跃成员采纳。
Design of the membership network will consist of a multilevel network of nested membership cells. Each cell will have nine members who will engage in a process of deliberation to produce a shared understanding about the realities facing the Nation. Working together, the cell members will try to understand the context (how the environment is evolving), define the problem (formulating the mess), and produce a recommended solution (designing a solution). The outcome of each cell, once agreed upon, will be passed on either to the lower level cell for further deliberation or higher level cells for integration with others. The process will continue until all the critical issues facing the Nation are collected, deliberated, resolved, and bought into by all the active members participating in their respective cells at different levels of the membership network.
为了开始发展会员网络,最初将创建最多 9 个主要小组。GB 的指定成员以及管理团队的选定成员和工作团队的指定成员将组成这些主要小组的初始组成。然后,每个小组将从全体会员中招募 6 名主要成员(最好是 GTC 的活跃参与者)。因此,会员网络的主要小组将由 9 个小组中的 81 名成员组成。
To start the development of the membership network, up to nine primary cells will be initially created. A designated member of the GB along with a selected member of the management team and a designated member of the work team will form the initial composition of these primary cells. Each cell will then recruit six primary members from the membership at large (preferably from active participants of the GTC). The primary cell of the membership network will therefore consist of 81 members working in nine cells.
经过充分的审议和达成共识后,主要单元的每一个成员将组成在网络的第二级运作的其他九个成员单元。因此,第二级将由 81 个单元组成,共有 729 名成员。会员网络的第三级将由 729 个单元中的 6,561 名参与者组成。三级网络似乎将提供足够的全国覆盖范围。如果需要,可以向会员网络添加其他连续级别,直到每个符合条件的成员都被包括进来,没有人被遗漏。
Each one of the members of the primary cells, after sufficient deliberation and generation of consensus, will form other nine-member cells operating on the second level of the network. The second level will therefore be made up of 81 cells consisting of 729 members. The third level of the membership network will be populated by 6,561 participants working in 729 cells. It seems that a three-level network will provide adequate national coverage. If need be, other successive levels could be added to the membership network until every eligible member is included and nobody is left out.
交互式设计文档将作为审议过程的起点。在设计团队提供设计的第一个版本后,GB 将对其进行审议以达成必要的共识。然后,设计将被带到主要单元,部落理事会的 81 名活跃成员将有机会制作交互式设计的第二个迭代。然后,第二个迭代将移至成员网络的第二级进行下一个迭代。整个网络将继续进行连续迭代,直到所有活跃成员都有机会参与设计过程并承诺实施。
The interactive design document will serve as the starting point of the process of deliberation. After the design team provides the first version of the design, the GB will deliberate on it to generate necessary consensus. Then the design will be taken to the primary cells, where 81 active members of the Tribal Council will have their chance to produce the second iteration of the interactive design. The second iteration will then move down to the second level of the membership network for the next iteration. Successive iterations will be continued throughout the network until all active members can have a chance to participate in the design process and make a commitment to its implementation.
• 收集并提供相关问题和背景材料
• Collecting and feeding relevant issues and background materials
• 提供后勤保障、安排会议并让会员了解即将举行的活动和议程
• Providing logistics, scheduling meetings, and keeping members informed of upcoming events and agendas
• 记录、存档和跟进会议记录
• Taking, recording, and following up on the minutes of the meetings
• 促进流程并确保参与者了解其指定角色的协议和含义
• Facilitating the processes and making sure that participants understand the protocols and implications of their assigned roles
创建一个参与平台虽然很有必要,但还不足以使成员们紧密团结起来。为了加强团结,我们强烈建议采用一种基于奥奈达民族传统的共识构建方法的新方法,这种方法与新兴的系统思维概念如此巧合和完美地契合。
Creation of a platform for participation, although necessary, is not sufficient for proper bonding of the membership. To enhance the bonding process, we strongly recommend that a new approach based on the Oneida Nation's traditional means of consensus building, which so serendipitously and beautifully corresponds with the emerging notion of systems thinking, be adopted.
为了理解系统思维的基本假设和组织原则,必须注意以下问题:
To appreciate the underlying assumptions and organizing principles of systems thinking, it is important to note the following concerns:
这两个方面都很重要。它们相辅相成。然而,两者不应混淆或混为一谈。这两项活动越是分开,就越有可能影响问题的解决,从而实现更高层次的综合。要真正解决问题,还需要另外两个参与者:创新者和实干家。创新者是开拓者。他们看得更远大。他们有系统的方向。他们表现出有目的的行为。他们设定方向,在此基础上 (1) 定义和制定问题,(2) 综合和整合解决方案,以确保它们通过统一为协同整体而相互补充。
Both aspects are important. They complement each other. The two, however, should not be confused or mixed up. The more the two activities are kept separate, the higher the likelihood of affecting a dissolution of the problem as a way of achieving a higher order synthesis. For a problem to be actually dissolved, two other actors are required: innovators and doers. Innovators are pathfinders. They see the bigger picture. They have a systematic orientation. They exhibit purposeful behavior. They set the direction based on which (1) problems are defined and formulated and (2) solutions are synthesized and integrated to make sure that they complement each other by getting unified into synergistic wholes.
然而,实干家是实践者。他们既不关心大局,也不关心长期后果。他们喜欢使用预先定义的算法来生产或做事。另一方面,对奥奈达民族的历史记录和文化的反思指出了类似的共识建立过程。
Doers, however, are practitioners. They are concerned neither with the bigger picture nor the long-term consequences. They enjoy producing, or doing things, using a predefined algorithm. On the other hand, a reflection on the recorded history and the culture of the Oneida Nation points to a similar process of consensus building.
考虑到社会系统的单位不是个人,而是个人在不同环境中扮演的角色,狼/乌龟/熊角色扮演为集体学习和建立共识提供了极好的载体——这是国家建设的基本要素。
Considering that the unit of a social system is not so much the individual but the role one plays in different settings, the wolf/turtle/bear role playing presents an excellent vehicle for group learning and consensus building — the essential ingredients of nation building.
这种共识形成过程不同于传统的基于简单投票程序的多数原则。“多数原则”是西方民主模式的一个特点,它以公众辩论和借助大众传播形成舆论为前提。投票过程只是使这一过程最终结束的手段。但参与性、互动性和象征性表达性的文化则更加自发。在社区达成集体一致意见之前,它们会经历一个不那么死板的过程,包括口头和非口头的共识形成模式,即所谓的“达成共识”。这种开放、耐心、非结构化和经过深思熟虑的讨论将持续下去,直到达成可接受的、切实可行的解决方案。
This process of consensus building differs from the conventional model of majority rule based on a simple voting routine. The “majority rule,” a special feature of the Western model of democracy, presupposes existence of public debate and formation of public opinion aided by mass communication. The voting process is only the means for bringing the process to its ultimate closure. But the cultures that are participative, interactive, and symbolically expressive are far more spontaneous. They go through a less rigid process involving both verbal and nonverbal modes of consensus building, referred to as “getting to be of the same mind,” before the community arrives at a collectively agreed-upon position. The open, patient, unstructured, and well-drawn-out discussions will continue until an acceptable and practical solution is reached.
这种开放式的协商模式超越了多数原则。事实上,多数原则本质上只是达成共识的一个特殊情况。旨在更有效地管理时间的正式“秩序规则”所施加的限制与处理关键问题时达成共识的固有缓慢过程不相容。在这种情况下,达成广泛支持的协议不能以多数原则的名义损害达成共识的先决条件。如果这样做,结果不仅会推翻公众的承诺,还会导致广泛的怀疑,甚至是彻底的疏远。
This open-ended mode of deliberation transcends majority rule. In fact, majority rule is, in essence, but a special case of consensus building. The limitations imposed by the formal “rules of order,” intended to manage time more effectively, prove incompatible with the inherently slow process of consensus building in dealing with critical issues. In such contexts, reaching widely supported agreements cannot afford to compromise the prerequisites of consensus building in the name of majority rule. If it did, the outcome would not only debunk public commitment but would lead to widespread suspicion, if not wholesale alienation.
通过利用形成共识这一宝贵传统,国家将受益于多重优势:它是有效的,因为它让每个人都参与到发展过程中;它是合法的,因为它采用了文化已经认可的本土手段;它是令人兴奋的,因为它释放了过去所蕴含的丰富资源,成为未来进步的有效载体。这个过程是解放的,因为它赋予我们力量,让我们获得自由,让我们成为未来的主人,而不是过去的囚徒。未来不必只是过去的延伸。通过重新解释我们行为的根本驱动力,我们既可以保存我们的文化,也可以更新我们的文化,使其与我们现在的文化相一致,并支持我们想要成为的样子。
By capitalizing on the valuable tradition of generating a common understanding, the Nation will benefit from multiple advantages: it is effective because it engages everyone in the development process, it is legitimizing because it resorts to an indigenous device already sanctioned by the culture, and it is exciting because it frees up the richness contained in the past to become an effective vehicle for future progress. The process is liberating because it empowers us to achieve the freedom that we need to establish ourselves as the masters of our future rather than prisoners of our past. The future need not be a mere extension of the past. By reinterpreting the underlying drivers of our behavior, we can both preserve and renew our culture in ways that make it consistent with what we are and supportive of what we desire to be.
建立行动能力是会员平台最重要的单一功能。尽管多样性是自由社会的核心,但缺乏对一套组织原则和操作程序的一致意见将使其失去有效行动的最低要求。因此,建立一种将令人麻痹的二分法和结构性冲突转化为有利互补的能力将成为衡量会员层面成功的基础。因此,绩效系统将建立措施和标准,以确定会员平台在面对多样性时能够在多大程度上制度化统一行动的共识基础。这应该是持续的全国性对话的结果,是倾听和同情的能力,从而减少现有的紧张和挫折程度,同时产生对一套组织原则和操作程序的共同理解和承诺。
Creation of the capacity to act is the greatest single function of the membership platform. Although diversity is at the heart of a free society, lack of agreement on a set of organizing principles and operating procedures will rob it of the minimum requirement to act effectively. As such, creation of a capacity to convert the paralyzing dichotomies and structural conflicts to an enabling complementarity will be the basis on which the success of the membership dimension will be measured. The performance system will therefore establish the measures and criteria to determine the degree to which the membership platform has been able to institutionalize the consensus basis for united action in the face of diversity. This should be the outcome of an ongoing and nationwide dialog, the capacity to listen and empathize, leading to a reduction of the existing levels of tension and frustration while producing a shared understanding and commitment to a set of organizing principles and operating procedures.
为了实现这一目标,我们将确定一套组织原则,这些原则代表了国家根深蒂固的两极分化的核心假设。对于每一项原则,我们将提出一对赞成和反对的论点。使用预先设计的指数,我们将定期测量和制表全体成员对这些原则的态度。连续的测量将产生组织原则的变化模式。这一练习不仅仅是一面镜子。它将作为一种媒介,让成员既能理解又能影响他们行为方式的原因。因此,绩效标准和衡量标准将帮助国家摆脱令人麻痹的“混乱”,自愿朝着理想的状态迈进。
To accomplish this purpose, a set of organizing principles, representing the underlying assumptions at the core of the Nation's entrenched polarization, will be identified. For each principle, a pair of pro and con arguments will be developed. Using a predesigned index, the attitude of the membership as a whole with regard to these principles will be periodically measured and tabulated. Successive measurements will yield the pattern of change along the organizing principles. This exercise will not act as a mirror only. It will serve as a medium by which the membership can both understand and influence what makes it behave the way it does. Thus, performance criteria and measures will help the Nation shed its paralyzing “mess” and move voluntarily toward its desired state.
会员平台将支持和管理所有需要志愿服务和积极成员参与的兴趣小组活动,例如 Pow Wow、艺术和老龄化。会员、学习和业务方面的活动和互动将在 PLCB 进行协调。每个人都必须主动与其他两个方面进行协调。为了促进这种协调,将鼓励会员网络中的成员加入文化或专业团体。文化、专业和其他兴趣小组将担任学习和业务方面的顾问。
The membership platform will support and manage all interest group activities requiring voluntarism and participation of active members, such as Pow Wow, Arts, and Aging. The activities and interactions of the membership, learning, and business dimensions will be coordinated at the PLCB. It is imperative that each one take the initiative to coordinate itself with the other two. To facilitate this coordination, members in the membership network will be encouraged to join a cultural or professional group. The cultural, professional, and other interest groups will act as advisors for the learning and business dimensions.
奥奈达民族的成功最终取决于其成员的能力。奥奈达人是其所属体系的目的和手段。与任何其他人类体系一样,奥奈达民族的好坏取决于其成员。因此,奥奈达人的发展是该体系的第二个最关键的维度,奥奈达人是该体系的人力资产。
The success of the Oneida Nation will ultimately depend on the competence of its members. Oneidas are both the ends and the means of the system of which they are the parts. Like any other human system, the Oneida Nation is only as good as its members. The development of Oneidas, the system's human assets, therefore constitutes the second most critical dimension of the architecture.
学习维度的功能是发展人力资产。它旨在重振成员的能力和愿望,以满足他们个人和集体的需求和愿望。没有愿望的能力是无能的,正如没有能力的愿望是无用的一样。
The function of the learning dimension is the development of human assets. It is about reinvigorating the ability and desire of the members to satisfy their needs and desires both individually and collectively. Ability without desire is impotent, just as desire without ability is sterile.
文化发展涉及欲望,而职业发展涉及能力。欲望是创造一个有成就的社会的基本要素。文化和精神动员涉及欲望维度。能力,无论多高,都只是成功的必要条件。如果没有相关欲望的激励,能力往往会保持潜伏状态。如果没有欲望,能力就只是潜力而已。
Cultural development involves desires while professional development involves abilities. Desires are the essential ingredients for creating an achieving society. Cultural and spiritual mobilization deals with the desire dimension. Abilities, no matter how high, are only the necessary condition for success. To the extent that they are not energized by relevant desires, abilities tend to remain latent. In the absence of desires, abilities would be mere potentials.
文化的活力在于它能够充当实现社会共同梦想的载体。强大的文化可以重新点燃必要的欲望,否则梦想就会沦为白日梦。复兴需要重新诠释文化符号,使新的目标能够被集体合法化并有效追求,同时保持群体认同的连续性。归根结底,文化活力的衡量标准是能否成功地让传统符号和形象支持进步社会的新兴需求。尊重文化并不意味着倒退,进步也不应该意味着与过去的决裂。旧价值观是为了满足新需求而诞生的。在国家发展的背景下,创新就是让这些强大的引擎重新与新兴需求联系起来,这些需求不断取代那些可能已经过时的需求。
The vitality of a culture is in its potency to act as a vehicle for the realization of the society's shared dreams. A potent culture can rekindle the necessary desires without which dreams degenerate into daydreams. Renaissance requires reinterpretation of the cultural symbols in such a way that new goals can be collectively legitimized and effectively pursued while the continuity of group identity is preserved. Ultimately, cultural vitality is measured by success in getting the traditional symbols and images to support the emerging needs of a progressive society. Respect for culture does not imply regression nor should progress mean a break with the past. Old values were born in response to new needs. In the context of national development, innovation is getting these powerful engines reconnected to the emerging needs that keep replacing the ones that may have outlived the reason for which they were born.
另一方面,能力涉及制定有效应对新挑战所需知识的操作化。它们涉及定义问题和设计解决方案的整套方法、诀窍和技能。因此,专业发展是利用能力维度的载体。它需要一套以专业为基础的教育体系。该系统的设计应使其能够 (1) 与系统的特殊需求兼容,同时 (2) 能够满足其所属外部环境(联邦和州)的许可要求。外部要求很容易实现,因此奥奈达族的教育系统应将自己定位为美国教育系统的补充,而不是重复美国教育系统。因此,该系统应避免生产它能从外部采购的东西。
Abilities, on the other hand, involve operationalization of the knowledge required for formulating effective responses to new challenges. They involve a whole set of approaches, know-how, and skills for defining problems and designing solutions. Professional development, therefore, is the vehicle to leverage the ability dimension. It requires a professional-based system of education. The system should be designed so that it can be (1) compatible with the system's special needs and, at the same time, (2) capable of meeting licensing requirements of the external environment (federal and state) of which it is a part. The external requirements are so easily achievable that the educational system of the Oneida Nation should position itself to function as complementary to, rather than a redundant duplication of, the U.S. educational system. The system should therefore avoid producing what it can procure from the outside.
鉴于变化的速度不断加快,不断改变着一切,所学科目的使用寿命也随之缩短,教育系统的真正责任是将学习者转变为自我教育者。它可以通过提高学生的意愿和能力来实现这一目标,让他们开始一个永无止境的学习、忘却和重新学习的过程,无论是在传统框架之内还是之外。这些一阶和二阶学习的责任应该是从小学到高等教育的所有正规教育水平的共同责任。正规教育是一种许可活动,涵盖了从幼儿园到高中、大学和研究生学习的整个范围。
Given the accelerated rate of change that keeps transforming everything, and with it the useful life of learned subject matter, the real responsibility of an educational system is to convert the learners to self-educators. It can achieve this by increasing the students' desire and ability to embark on a never-ending process of learning, unlearning, and relearning, both within and beyond the conventional frameworks. The responsibility for these first- and second-order learnings should be common to all levels of formal education, from elementary to higher education. Formal education, a licensing activity, covers the whole spectrum of K-12, college, and postgraduate studies.
为了确保正规教育的质量和可用性,学习系统将:
To ensure the quality and availability of formal education, the learning system will:
• 负责确定和宣传国家的教育需求和优先事项,并确保有足够的信息和资源来帮助成员就其教育目标做出明智的决定
• Be responsible for identifying and publicizing the Nation's educational needs and priorities and making sure that there will be sufficient information and resources available to help the members make informed decisions in terms of their educational goals
• 向符合条件的学生提供经济支持(即奖学金),否则这些学生将无法参加国家需要或认可的学习课程
• Provide financial support (i.e., scholarships) to eligible students who will otherwise be deprived of pursuing courses of study that are needed/endorsed by the Nation
• 设立信托基金,向符合条件的学生提供无息贷款,这些学生可以通过参与国家治理或商业发展工作来抵消贷款
• Create a trust fund to offer interest-free loans to eligible students, who will be allowed to write them off by working in the Nation's governance or its business development efforts
• 建立并不断发展国家数据库,以监测每个成员一生的教育进展
• Generate and continually develop a national database to monitor the educational progress of each member throughout his/her life
• 将所有奥奈达人(无论其居住地如何)视为其选民,并尽力(1)了解他们的教育历史和进步情况,(2)在条件需要时为他们提供帮助,并支持其成员的学术追求
• Consider all Oneidas, regardless of their residence, as its constituency and do its best to (1) keep itself informed about their educational history and progress and (2) make itself accessible to them when conditions require and justify supporting the members' academic pursuits
学会生存本质上涉及美学。如果历史是一个教训,那么国家衰落总是先于文化衰落。与普遍的看法相反,美学并不是一种奢侈品。与美学对立的社会必然被证明是反人类和反发展的。
Learning to be, in essence, involves aesthetics. If history is a lesson, national declines are preceded by cultural declines. Aesthetics, contrary to popular belief, is not a luxury. Societies that were antithetical to aesthetics invariably proved to be anti-human and anti-development as well.
专业教育负责培养成员的市场竞争力。这样做可以避免将学习内容简化为理论输入和僵化的课堂形式。传统形式是高等教育的主要教学模式,要么不兼容,要么非常昂贵。世界并不像大学那样分裂。小社区无法承受拥有越来越多的专家的奢侈,这些专家喜欢越来越多地了解奥奈达民族面临的越来越小的问题。民族需要的是能够扮演多种角色并能够处理所有问题的人。
Professional education is responsible for creating the marketable competency of the members. In doing this, it will avoid reducing the context of learning to theoretical inputs and rigid classroom formats. Conventional formats, the predominant mode of instruction in higher education, are either incompatible or very expensive. The world does not divide itself the way universities do. Small communities cannot afford the luxury of having a proliferating number of specialists who enjoy knowing more and more about a smaller and smaller set of problems facing the Oneida Nation. What the Nation requires is a people capable of performing multiple roles and able to deal with the totality of a problem.
专业教育应该对国家的专业需求和愿望进行自我调查,得出自己的结论。然后,它可以着手制定符合国家商业和发展潜力的计划和方案。
Professional education should carry out its own survey and draw up its own conclusion about the Nation's professional needs and desires. It can then set out to create plans and programs that will match the nation's business and developmental potentials.
职业教育的最佳选择是启动学徒培训模式。它应尽可能招募在所需领域具有公认能力的本土专家。然后为这些导师提供必要的资源和学员,以培养所需的技术人员(会计师、木匠、图书管理员、计算机专家、卫生技术人员等)。该系统可以与知名学院和大学建立联盟或附属关系,使其课程获得认证。
Professional education's best option would be to launch apprentice models of training. To the extent possible, it should recruit its indigenous experts who have proven competence in the needed areas. Such mentors will then be supplied with the necessary resources and trainees to produce the needed technicians (accountants, carpenters, librarians, computer experts, health technicians, etc.). The system can forge alliances or affiliations with known colleges and universities to get its programs accredited.
学习系统的支持部门将由共享设施和知识库组成。它们将代表学习系统其他维度共同使用的资源。
The support arm of the learning system will consist of shared facilities and the knowledge bank. They will represent those resources commonly utilized by other dimensions of the learning system.
共享设施不能属于任何一个作为其他单位的供应商的输出单位。否则,随之而来的权力不平衡将有利于拥有单位而损害其他用户的利益,而不是让不同的单位复制和扩散稀缺的物理资源(建筑物、设施、设备等)。
Shared facilities cannot belong to any one of the output units acting as a supplier to others. Otherwise, the ensuing power imbalance would favor the owning unit at the expense of the other users, rather than letting different units duplicate and diffuse scarce physical resources (buildings, facilities, equipment, etc.).
知识库将承载国家的核心竞争力。知识库成员应被视为一种特权。知识库将由全职和兼职成员组成。兼职成员是那些在其他平台上承担平行职责的人,但他们的专业知识对整个系统来说非常需要,因此知识库需要他们的成员资格。这将使系统能够利用这种罕见的专业知识。例如,在 PLCS 中服务的专家也将是知识库的兼职成员。
The knowledge bank will host the core competencies of the Nation. Membership in the knowledge bank should be considered a privilege. The bank will consist of full- and part-time members. Part-time members are those who have parallel responsibilities in other platforms, but their expertise is so much in demand for the system as a whole that their membership will be necessitated by the bank. This will make it possible for the system to capitalize on this rare expertise. For example, experts serving in the PLCS will also be part-time members of the knowledge bank.
该知识库将成为国家的“智囊团”。它将以项目为基础,为内部和外部客户提供咨询、教育和研究三个领域的服务。该知识库将能够以临时项目为基础从内部和外部招募专业和/或互补人才。
The knowledge bank will be the “think tank” of the Nation. It will be involved on a project basis in all three areas of consulting, education, and research, both for internal and external clients. The bank will be able to recruit specialized and/or complementary talent from internal and external sources on a temporary project basis.
倡导服务将:
Advocacy services will:
• 与三个产出维度互动,确保会员,特别是青少年,在正确的时间接受正确数量和质量的适当教育
• Interact with the three output dimensions to make sure that members, especially the youth, are receiving the proper education at the right time, in the right amount, and of the right quality
• 干预、协调并采取一切必要行动,确保选民得到适当对待,并充分满足他们的个性化需求
• Intervene, coordinate, and take whatever action is necessary to make sure that constituencies are properly treated and their individualized needs satisfactorily met
• 与家长保持联系,争取他们的积极支持,确保教育工作取得成功
• Keep in touch with parents and enlist their active support for the success of educational efforts
• 为需要康复服务的会员创建特殊计划
• Create special programs for members who are in need of rehabilitation services
• 覆盖从幼儿园到研究生的各个教育阶段
• Cover all levels of education from kindergarten to postgraduate
• 创造学习型社会,把整个国家变成没有围墙的学校,让学习不受时间和地点的限制
• Create a learning society by turning the whole Nation into a school without walls where learning can be freed from time and place restrictions
• 提供正规、专业和文化教育
• Provide formal, professional, and cultural education
• 在同一门课程中,让学习者充当教育者,让教育者充当学习者
• Use learners as educators and educators as learners in the same course
• 消除工作、爱好和学习之间的界限
• Remove boundaries between the worlds of work, hobby, and learning
• 打破理论、职业和艺术学习之间的界限,让会员在学习的同时还能赚钱,反之亦然
• Remove the boundaries between theoretical, vocational, and artistic studies so that members can be learning while earning, and vice versa
• 为国家的每一位成员提供机会,让他们随时都有可能成为老师和学生
• Provide opportunities for every member of the Nation to be, potentially, a teacher and a student at all times
• 提供足够的灵活性,以便非义务教育(6 至 16 岁)学习者可以随意进入或退出系统
• Allow sufficient flexibility so that noncompulsory (ages six to sixteen) learners can get in and out of the system at will
• 引入学习单元、研究单元和实践单元,让参与者能够同时在所有单元中扮演多个角色(作为教育者和/或研究人员和/或实践者)
• Introduce learning cells, research cells, and practice cells that allow the participants to carry out multiple roles in all of them (as educators and/or researchers and/or practitioners) at the same time
• 除了有用的传统教学方法、形式、方法和课程外,还要对所有类型的教学方法、形式、方法和课程持开放态度
• Be open to all kinds of pedagogic approaches, formats, methodologies, and curricula in addition to useful conventional ones
• 所有成员均可随时随地访问
• Be accessible by all members — anytime, anywhere
该学习系统采用以下教育手段。
The learning system employs the following educational vehicles.
学习单元是协作环境中增加参与者知识和理解的工具。通过实施“最佳学习方式是教学”这一理念,它将使学习者既负责教学,又负责相互学习。分配给学习者-教师的学生的成功将成为评估学习者-教师成功的标准。
A learning cell is a vehicle for increasing the knowledge and understanding of the participants in a collaborative context. By operationalizing the idea that the best way of learning is teaching, it will make the learners responsible for both teaching to and learning from each other. The success of students assigned to a learner–teacher will then be a measure for evaluating the success of the learner–teacher.
例如,语言传播、成人识字和职业教育与培训可以通过学习单元实现,学习单元通过同时进行教学学习和培训师培训,产生级联效应。通过为学习者(教师)提供额外的外在激励,这种学习系统可以成倍地提高效率,学生可以展示其学科的熟练程度。通过标准的学生可以继续教其他学习者,并在产出导向的基础上获得报酬。因此,学习学习的动机通过学习教学和教学学习成倍增加。
Language dissemination, adult literacy, and vocational education and training, for example, can best be achieved through learning cells, which produce cascade effects by making learning by teaching and training by trainers happen at the same time. Such a system of learning could be made exponentially effective by providing added extrinsic incentives to learner–teachers, whose students could demonstrate proficiency in their subject matter. The students who pass the standard can, in turn, go on teaching other learners and get compensated for it on an output-oriented basis. Thus the motivation of learning to learn is multiplied by learning to teach and learning by teaching.
通过利用环境中已有的资源并专注于系统独有领域的内部服务供应,教育系统可以最大限度地提高其效率。它通过利用环境中的可用资源并在资源不足时进行补充来实现这一点。其中一个例子就是让外部雇用的承包商承诺培训内部人员,这是他们专业职责不可分割的一部分。除非预先分配的受训人员达到所需的能力水平,否则他们不会收到剩余的报酬。
By taking advantage of what is already available in the environment and concentrating on an internally generated supply of services in the areas unique to the system, the education system can maximize its effectiveness. It does so by capitalizing on the available resources in its environment and complementing them when they are lacking. One such example would be to make the externally hired contractors commit themselves to the task of training counterparts from the internal pool of personnel as an integral part of their professional responsibilities. They should expect not to receive the balance of their compensation unless the pre-assigned trainees achieve the requisite level of competence.
这种金字塔结构的小组学习需要有自己的组织、管理和支持服务系统来处理角色分配、与业务维度的培训单元的互联互通以及在专业/职业环境中未来应用所学技能的行动计划等安排。
This pyramidal structure of group learning requires its own system of organization, management, and support services to take care of such arrangements as assignment of roles, interconnectivity with training cells in the business dimension, and the action plans for future application of learned skills in professional/vocational contexts.
研究小组和学习小组一样,以参与者为中心。除其他事项外,它们还负责文化重新诠释。研究小组要找出如何借助过去来构建未来。在这方面,对理想未来的共同愿景将帮助他们从丰富且有时非常多样化的文化遗产内容中识别和选择与重塑未来相关并有助于国家建设的价值观、象征意义、意义和仪式。
Research cells, like learning cells, have a participant-centered focus. Among other things, they are charged with cultural reinterpretation. Research cells are to find out how the future can be built with the aid of the past. In this regard, a shared vision of the desired future will help them identify and select — from a rich and, at times, quite heterogeneous content of cultural heritage — the values, the symbolism, the meanings, and the rituals that will be relevant to reinventing the future and helpful in the nation-building effort.
实践单元将涉及各种参与性团体活动,如戏剧、艺术节、时装秀和体育赛事。实践单元将推广那些体验式学习内容丰富的活动。它们将有助于培养这些品味,最终创造一个环境,促进审美创作、艺术价值和文化商品的不断增加和消费。我们的想法是消除教育、工作和娱乐之间的传统界限,将艺术、体育和消遣融入创造性活动中,吸引和吸引所有成员,尤其是年轻人,无论他们身在何处。
Practice cells will involve all kinds of participatory group activities such as theater, arts festivals, fashion shows, and sporting events. Practice cells will promote those activities that are high in their experiential learning content. They will be instrumental in the cultivation of those tastes that will ultimately result in the creation of an environment promoting ever-increasing generation and consumption of aesthetic creations, artistic values, and cultural commodities. The idea is to erase the conventional boundaries of education, work, and fun and integrate art, sports, and pastime into creative activities that attract and engage all the members, especially the young, wherever they are.
实践小组是能力培养的媒介,由在特定活动中具有公认能力的成员管理。这些导师设计项目,并为他们提供预算,以培养参与者以及他们的服务市场。每个小组通常由五到六名参与者组成。
Practice cells, mediums of competency development, will be run by members with proven capabilities in specific activities. These mentors design the projects and are provided with a budget to develop the participants as well as the market for their services. Each cell is typically made up of five to six participants.
学习系统将是一个绩效中心。它将是一个以吞吐量为导向的运营,具有内在的趋势,可以控制消耗,不允许其增长超过价值创造的健康百分比。因此,运营预算将是其实际吞吐量的百分比。
The learning system will be a performance center. It will be a throughput-oriented operation with a built-in tendency to keep the consumption in check and not allow it to grow beyond a healthy percentage of value generation. The operating budget will therefore be a percentage of its actual throughput.
参与的学习者以他们获得的代金券形式支付学费。只有当代金券兑现时,学费才被视为收入。因此,预算是按人头计算的。代金券的来源,以及最终学习系统的预算,是为资助该系统作为绩效中心而设立的教育信托基金。只有在参与者真正被学习系统选中进行处理后,系统才会实现指定的资金。
Participating learners pay a tuition in the form of vouchers they have obtained. Tuition is considered as income only when the voucher is cashed in. The budget, therefore, is on a per-head basis. The source of vouchers, and ultimately the budget of the learning system, is the education trust fund set up to finance the system as a performance center. The designated fund will only be realized by the system once the participant is actually picked up for processing by the learning system.
绩效衡量的设计将以下列指标的实现程度为依据:
The design of the performance measures will be informed by the degree to which the following indicators are realized:
• 文化、教育和职业融合
• Cultural, educational, and professional integration
• 对学会做人、学会学习和学会做事有着广泛而积极的兴趣
• Widespread and active interest in learning to be, learning to learn, and learning to do
• 该系统毕业生的内部和外部需求
• Demand, both internal and external, for the graduates of the system
• 多维性,体现在参与者(同时是学习者、教师和实践者)以及资源利用(系统中各种学习活动的设施和资源的多种使用)
• Multidimensionality, as manifested by the participants (being a learner, a teacher, and practitioner at the same time), as well as resource utilization (multiple use of facilities and resources for all kinds of learning activities in the system)
• 通过振兴、调整和采用与国家保护和持续发展相关的规范来增强文化活力
• Cultural vitality through revitalization, adaptation, and adoption of the norms that prove relevant to the preservation and continued development of the Nation
这些措施将是兼收并蓄的;它们的制定和实施将既客观又主观。毕竟,客观性是集体的主观性。
The measures will be eclectic; they will be both objectively and subjectively devised and applied. Objectivity, after all, is collective subjectivity.
由于会员、学习和业务维度之间的兼容性对于国家的成功至关重要,因此它们之间的互动将在 PLCB 进行协调。此外,学习系统将在 PLC 学习委员会下运行,该委员会由 BC 成员、GM、学习平台主管及其直接下属组成。系统的每个基本单位还将得到一个顾问小组的协助,该小组的成员将从会员网络中运营的文化和专业单元中选出。
Since compatibility among the membership, learning, and business dimensions is of utmost importance to the success of the Nation, their interactions will be coordinated at the PLCB. In addition, the learning system will operate under a PLC Learning Board that will be made up of a member of the BC, the GM, the director of the learning platform, and his/her direct reports. Each basic unit of the system will also be assisted by an advisory group whose members will be selected from cultural and professional cells operating in the membership network.
一个国家要想自立自强,就必须能够有效地创造和分配财富、产品和服务。它必须能够解决影响生活水平的所有因素,如健康、食品、住房和成员国的其他物质需求。创造和分配是同一枚硬币的两面。没有适当分配的创造会滋生疏离,而没有充分创造的分配将导致贫困的公平分配。自力更生要想自给自足,就必须以多样性为基础。历史对依赖单一生存来源的社会并不友善。
To be viable and self-reliant, a nation should be able to generate and disseminate wealth, products, and services effectively. It should be capable of addressing all those factors that affect the standard of living, such as health, food, housing, and other material needs of the membership. Generation and dissemination are two sides of the same coin. Generation without proper distribution breeds alienation, whereas distribution without adequate generation will lead to equitable distribution of poverty. Self-reliance, to be self-sustaining, needs to be grounded in diversity. History has not been kind to societies that relied on a single source of survival.
商业体系是负责扩大和调动国家生存能力的架构维度。它负责创业和商业发展,参与创造商业机会并支持成员成功发现、抓住、管理和利用新兴机会。
The business system is the dimension of architecture responsible for expanding and mobilizing the Nation's capacity for viability. In charge of entrepreneurial and business development, it will be involved in creating business opportunities and supporting the members to successfully detect, seize, manage, and exploit the emerging opportunities.
归根结底,真正的财富在于有能力将机会转化为满足自己和他人需求和愿望所必需的价值。成功为集体和个人的人生成就目标做出贡献是人们赢得掌控自己命运权利的重要标志。经济成功归根结底在于行使选择的自由。贫穷最丑陋的表现是无能为力。
Ultimately, real wealth is about the competence to convert opportunities into values that are essential for satisfying both one's own needs and desires and those of others. Success in contributing to both collective and individual life-achievement goals is a vital sign of people who have earned the right to be in charge of their destinies. Economic success is, ultimately, about freedom to exercise choice. The ugliest manifestation of poverty is powerlessness.
或许,企业职能部门的任何其他使命都比帮助社区繁荣发展和学习实现更高水平的自力更生更重要。印第安人一直都是骄傲而足智多谋的民族。他们的文化充满了企业家精神。尽管他们重视社群主义,但他们也推崇坚韧不拔的个人主义、自力更生和勇敢。
Perhaps no other mission of the business function is as important as helping communities to prosper while learning to attain higher levels of self-reliance. The Indians have always been proud and resourceful people. Their culture is replete with qualities that are essentially entrepreneurial. Although they valued communitarianism, they have also celebrated rugged individualism, self-reliance, and bravery.
成功取决于愿望和能力。愿望和能力是无法替代的。它们既不能被给予,也不能从外部强加。这或许就是为什么托管制度无论意图多么高尚,都有可能违背其最初设立的目的。托管制度本意是帮助,却可能导致无助。托管制度旨在创造自主权,却可能沦为依赖。托管制度本意是维护理想,却最终腐蚀理想。经验表明,出于良好意图的官僚化援助体系可能会带来与直觉相反的破坏性后果。这种趋势无论多么有限,都需要扭转。答案是补贴需求而不是补贴供应。
Success is about desires and abilities. Desires and abilities do not have substitutes. They cannot be given nor be imposed from the outside. That is perhaps the reason why trusteeship, no matter how noble the intentions, has the potential of defeating the very purposes for which it was originally set up. Intended to help, it can lead to helplessness. Mandated to create autonomy, it can degenerate into dependency. Meant to preserve ideals, it can end up corrupting them. Experience shows that well-intentioned systems of bureaucratized assistance can prove, counterintuitively, devastating. This trend, however limited, needs to be reversed. The answer is subsidizing demand instead of subsidizing the supply.
为了实现服务国家经济利益的使命,商业系统将从事所有主要旨在
To realize its mission in serving the Nation's economic interests, the business system will engage in all of the activities that are primarily designed to
• 确保国家长期的财政自给自足
• Ensure the long-term financial self-sufficiency of the Nation
• 实现收入来源多元化
• Diversify the sources of revenue
• 消除国家对单一收入来源的依赖
• Eliminate the Nation's reliance on a single source of income
• 创造就业机会
• Create employment opportunities
商业发展包括识别商业机会、筹集资金、注入种子资金、投资、合作、运营管理以及提供管理支持服务。它将积极探索和识别奥奈达企业家的潜在机会。它还将支持奥奈达人了解并鼓励他们利用现有的联邦规定,为特定少数群体争取特殊的商业特权。
Business development includes identification of business opportunities, raising capital, infusion of seed money, investment, partnership, management of operation, and provision of management support services. It will actively explore and identify the potential opportunities for Oneida entrepreneurs. It will also support Oneidas about, and encourage them to take advantage of, the available federal provisions for securing special business privileges for specific minorities.
业务维度中的所有单位都将成为利润中心。如果管理层出于某种原因认为有必要为特定用户提供特定服务补贴,那么它必须通过补贴需求而不是补贴供应来做到这一点。这种基于市场的纪律将保护服务的提供者和用户免受官僚化关系的不良影响,这种官僚化关系会导致提供者对用户傲慢和麻木不仁,而用户则无助并依赖其供应商。
All of the units in the business dimension will be profit centers. If and when management finds it necessary, for whatever reason, to subsidize a particular service to a particular user, it will have to do so by subsidizing the demand and never the supply. Such a market-based discipline will protect both the provider and the user of the service from the unhealthy effects of bureaucratized relations leading to providers' arrogance and insensitivity toward the user and the users' helplessness and dependency on its supplier.
该平台将由服务业企业组成。服务供应商在政府部门内运营,最终将转变为利润中心,成为该集团的成员。不过,最初,该行业的服务单位将包括:金融服务,如投资银行或商业银行,以及辅助服务,如工程和业务开发。
This platform will consist of businesses in the services sector. The service providers, operating within the government division, will eventually be transformed into a profit center and become a member of this group. However, initially, the service units in this sector will consist of: financial services, such as investment or commercial banks, and ancillary services, such as engineering and business development.
这将包括供应商和技术公司,他们的产品将被购买并集成到其他平台的产品中或直接出售给外部客户。
This will include suppliers and technology companies whose output will be bought and integrated into the outputs of other platforms or sold directly to external clients.
这将包括博彩、餐厅、酒店和娱乐业务。一般来说,博彩属于娱乐业。它只是利用不断增长的休闲时间带来的巨大机遇的广泛商业活动之一。从休闲的角度来看,博彩可以被视为一条长价值链中的一个环节,它提供一系列服务,以满足度假家庭的所有需求。酒店、度假村、游乐和/或主题公园、动物园、交通和其他旅游相关服务都是娱乐拼图中很有前途的部分。除了住宿要求外,从尽可能多的地点获得足够的陆路和空中交通对于广泛的休闲投资组合的成功至关重要。博彩就其功能特性而言,属于休闲领域。然而,由于其规模庞大且处于成熟阶段,它将作为独立实体进行管理,直到其他新兴的休闲相关业务达到一定的增长水平,消除被博彩所掩盖的威胁。
This will include gaming, restaurants, hotels, and entertainment operations. Generically, gaming belongs to the entertainment industry. It is but one of the wide-ranging business activities that capitalizes on the vast opportunities emerging from ever-growing leisure time. Approached from a leisure-based vantage point, gaming can be treated as one link in a long value chain providing a whole array of services in response to the entire spectrum of vacationing families' needs. Hotels, resorts, amusement and/or theme parks, zoos, transportation, and other tourism-related services are promising pieces of the entertainment jigsaw. Other than lodging requirements, adequate land and air accessibility, from as many points as possible, is crucial to the success of a broad leisure-based portfolio. Gaming, in terms of its functional properties, belongs to the leisure dimension. However, because of its sheer size and stage of maturation, it will be managed as a separate entity until such time that other nascent leisure-related businesses reach a level of growth that removes the threat of their being overshadowed by gaming's presence.
这将包括住房、食品加工和农业经营。土地是一种宝贵的资源。虽然它在国家主权方面具有外在价值,但其机会成本太高,不能让它简单地作为一项财产闲置。一旦土地所有权确立,就应该由这个平台以最有效的方式进行管理。
This will include housing, food processing, and farming operations. Land is a precious resource. Although it has extrinsic value in terms of national sovereignty, its opportunity cost is too high to let it lie fallow simply as a piece of property. Once the ownership of land is established, it should be managed by this platform in the most effective manner.
该业务系统的营销部门将由零售业务和分销渠道组成,将积极寻找和开发美国国内外现有和新兴市场的现有和潜在需求。该部门将与所有产出单位密切合作,并充当其营销部门。
The marketing arm of the business system will consist of the retail business and distribution channel, which will aggressively search and exploit the existing and potential needs of the current and emerging markets in and outside of the United States. This sector will work closely with all output units and act as their marketing arm.
每个平台旨在容纳以下三种不同类型的所有权。
Each platform is intended to house all three distinct types of ownership as follows.
这种所有权将包括国家集体拥有的所有商业活动。这种所有权可用于所有平台。集体所有权可以在农业、服务业、工业、土地管理、住房和休闲/娱乐领域形成。例如,由于游戏在国家运作中发挥着重要作用,因此继续由集体所有是理所当然的。然而,与游戏相关的、可以增强休闲维度的周边活动可以通过个人所有权来创建。
This type of ownership will consist of all the business activities that are collectively owned by the Nation. This type of ownership can be used in all platforms. Collective ownership can be formed in agriculture, services, industry, land management, housing, and leisure/entertainment. For example, because of the significant role that gaming plays in the operation of the Nation, it is only natural that it continue to be collectively owned. However, peripheral activities that are related to gaming that can enhance the leisure dimension could be created by means of individual ownership.
企业家会员单独、集体或与外部战略联盟(在所有平台)创建的商业单位将得到国家的支持。只要这些单位的活动符合国家的经济利益并为国家成员提供就业机会,这些单位将获得最低费用的经营许可。
Business units created by entrepreneurial members, alone, in groups, or in strategic alliances with outsiders (in all platforms), will be supported by the Nation. These units will be licensed to operate for a minimal fee as long as their activities are compatible with the economic interests of the Nation and provide employment opportunities for its members.
特许经营将成为国家与个体成员之间建立伙伴关系的一种适当形式,以鼓励可在保留地内外打包和复制的商业活动的激增。
Franchising will be an appropriate format to create partnership between the Nation and the individual members to encourage the proliferation of business activities that can be packaged and duplicated within or outside the reservation.
特许经营模式将成为经济发展的有力创业工具。如果计划周全,它可以轻松培养出数百名外部企业家,而如果没有特许经营模式,这些企业家将因缺乏资金、培训或无法获得专业帮助,或所有这些因素的综合作用而永远无法成为企业家。
The franchise model would be a powerful entrepreneurial tool for economic development. Well planned, it can easily create hundreds of outside businesspersons who would otherwise have no chance of ever becoming such for lack of capital, training, or access to professional assistance, or all of those factors combined.
会员、学习和业务层面之间的活动和互动将由 PLCB 协调。但是,业务系统将由作为控股公司的 PLC 业务委员会管理。该委员会的成员包括财务主管、参谋长、游戏总经理、财务系统总监、技术系统总监、业务系统总经理及其直接下属。此外,业务平台的每个部门(服务、工业、休闲、土地和农业、零售)都可以选择从会员网络中的专业小组成员中选出一个顾问小组。
Activities and interactions among the membership, learning, and business dimensions will be coordinated by the PLCB. However, business systems will be governed by a PLC Business Board that will act as a holding company. Membership of this board will consist of the treasurer, chief of staff, GM of gaming, director of financial systems, director of technical systems, GM of business systems, and his or her direct reports. In addition, each sector of the business platform (services, industry, leisure, land and agriculture, retail) may choose to have an Advisory Group selected from the members of the professional cells in the membership network.
核心服务将包括三项基本服务,这些服务对于维护国家的物质基础设施和社会稳定必不可少。这些服务将使所有成员共同受益。
Core services will consist of three basic services that are necessary to maintain the physical infrastructure and social stability of the Nation. These services will benefit all the members collectively and indiscriminately.
卫生服务和社会服务是政府服务部门的主要职能。
Health services and social services are the major function of the government services division.
所有预防性和干预性卫生服务(包括牙科和医疗)都将由该部门组织和管理。此外,该部门还将负责所有环境服务,如卫生、工业卫生、安全和社区卫生。
Delivery of all health services, preventive and interventive, including dental and medicinal, will be organized and managed through this department. In addition, the department will be responsible for all of the environmental services such as sanitation, industrial hygiene, safety, and community health.
建议重新设计该部门,使其总体上补贴医疗服务的需求而不是供给。应逐步将配送单位转变为利润中心,并转移到业务平台的服务维度。
It is recommended that the department be redesigned in such a way that it will, in general, subsidize the demand instead of the supply of health delivery. Delivery units should be gradually converted to profit centers and moved to the services dimension of the business platform.
社会服务部门将负责三项基本工作:
The social services department will be responsible for three basic outputs:
该部门将负责空间规划和工程以及公共工程。
This division will be responsible for space planning and engineering as well as public works.
该部门负责规划国家空间。它将处理所有环境问题、土地使用、住房、公用事业和交通。它将负责项目协调和建设管理。制定分区、颁发许可证以及检查和执行空间计划是该部门的职责。
This department will plan the space for the Nation. It will deal with all environmental concerns, land use, housing, utilities, and transportation. It will be responsible for project coordination and construction management. Development of zoning, issuing permits, and inspection and enforcement of space plans are the responsibilities of this department.
该部门将管理所有公用设施、水井、建筑物、设施、场地、公园和娱乐中心的化粪池维护以及汽车和奥奈达交通服务的运营。
This department will manage the operation of all utilities, wells, septic maintenance of buildings, facilities, grounds, parks, and recreational centers, and automotive and Oneida Transit services.
该部门将负责合规和记录管理。
This division will be responsible for compliance and records management.
该部门将负责执法(警察)、保护、优惠、供应商许可以及征收任何所需税款。
This department will be responsible for law enforcement (the police), conservation, preferences, vendor licensing, and collection of any taxes required.
该部门将保存所有国家历史文献以及个人会员登记、身份记录以及土地和财产所有权。
This department will house all the national historical documents as well as registry of individual membership, identification records, and land and property titles.
必须激励这些服务机构以成本效益高的方式开展工作,用更少的资源做更多的事情。它们必须以吞吐量为导向,预算将作为其收入的一部分。这些部门的成功不应该以规模(预算金额、员工数量或服务人口规模)来衡量,而应该以交付的成本效益来衡量。
These services will have to be incented to act in a cost-effective manner, doing more with less. They will have to operate on a throughput-oriented basis with a budget that will be kept as a portion of their revenues. The success of these units should never be measured by their size (amount of budget, number of employees, or size of populations served), but by the cost effectiveness of their delivery.
除了 PLCB 负责协调核心服务与其他平台的活动之外,核心服务还将由 PLC 服务委员会管理。PLC 服务委员会的成员包括 GB 的指定成员、参谋长、平台总经理及其直接下属。
In addition to the PLCB, which will coordinate the activities of the core services with other platforms, core services will be governed by the PLC Services Board. Members of the PLC Services Board will consist of a designated member of the GB, chief of staff, GM of the platform, and his/her direct reports.
核心服务必须充当服务器,而不是通常情况下的控制者。由于广大会员是这些服务的受益者,因此可以根据需要设立一些咨询委员会来监督这些服务的运作。
It is imperative that core services act as servers and not, as is often the case, controllers. Since membership at large is the beneficiary of these services, a number of advisory committees, as deemed necessary, may be set up to oversee the operation of these services.
外部环境维度将提供系统与其所包含环境之间的相互接口。该维度将基于这样的假设:为了生存和发展,奥奈达民族与任何可行的社会系统一样,必须保持开放并不断与其环境中的其他参与者互动。因此,这是一种引导国家分散精力的方法,否则这些精力将被浪费在非战略性甚至相互冲突的活动中,以专注于整个国家面临的外部机遇和威胁。
The external environment dimension will provide mutual interfaces between the system and its containing environment. This dimension will operate on the assumption that, in order to survive and grow, Oneida Nation, like any viable social system, must remain open and continuously interact with the other actors in its environment. It is, therefore, a means of channeling the scattered energies of the Nation that would otherwise be wasted in nonstrategic, and even conflicting, activities to focus on external opportunities and threats facing the Nation as a whole.
没有哪个国家能够独自满足所有需求。自决和自力更生不应与自给自足混为一谈。相互依存意味着双向关系。它需要同时给予和索取。最终,一个发达社会在拥有相同水平的资源的情况下,可以用更少的资源做更多的事情。
No nation is capable of satisfying all of its needs by itself. Self-determination and self-reliance should not be confused with self-sufficiency. Interdependence implies two-way relationships. It requires giving and taking at the same time. Ultimately, a developed society, given the same level of resources, can do more with less.
环境界面,尤其是当一个人代表少数群体时,需要认识到与之相伴的特殊负担和责任。外部看法和群体形象至关重要。就少数群体而言,个人的行为往往会受到更大的关注,因为一个人会自动被视为该群体的典型代表。因此,少数人的行为,无论好坏,都会不成比例地反映整体形象。因此,少数群体应该对他们所投射的形象更加敏感。他们需要更加注意他们的形象被接受的方式。少数群体几乎不能忽视他们的公关敏感性。疏忽和自满可能会付出太大的代价。
Environmental interface, especially where one represents a minority, requires recognition of special burdens and responsibilities that go with it. External perceptions and the group image are crucial. As far as minority groups are concerned, an individual's actions tend to receive much greater attention because one is automatically perceived as a typical representative of the group. Thus, the actions of a few, for better or worse, reflect disproportionately on the image of the whole. Minorities, therefore, ought to be that much more sensitive to the image they project. They need to take much greater care of the way their image is received. Minorities can hardly afford to neglect their public relations sensitivities. Negligence and complacency can prove too costly.
外部环境维度将在以下三个层面发挥作用:
The external environment dimension will operate at the following three levels:
• 联邦和州政府
• Federal and state government
• 当地和商业环境
• Local and business environment
• 其他印第安民族
• Other Indian Nations
所有三个层级都将确保系统得到充分的信息。通过不断监测环境,他们将及时提供有关代表新出现的威胁和/或机遇的重要趋势和发展的信息。他们还将通过影响各自环境中的事件,不懈地追求奥奈达民族的利益。其理念是影响自己无法控制的地方,并欣赏自己无法影响的地方。
All three levels will make sure that the system is kept adequately informed. By constantly monitoring the environment, they will provide timely inputs on significant trends and developments representing emerging threats and/or opportunities. They will also relentlessly pursue the interests of the Oneida Nation by influencing the events in their respective environments. The idea is to influence where one cannot control and appreciate where one cannot influence.
奥奈达司法系统的两个基本功能如下:
The two basic functions of an Oneida judicial system are as follows:
• 完善国家主权;有权解释和修改宪法,并确保成员在法律下受到平等保护
• Consummation of the national sovereignty; the ability to interpret and modify the constitution and to ensure equal protection of members under the law
• 建立独立、合法的冲突解决和申诉处理渠道,从而避免政府被本质上属于司法性质的问题所困扰
• Creation of an independent and legitimate channel for conflict resolution and redress of grievances, thus relieving the government from becoming diverted by concerns that are basically judicial in nature
为奥奈达族设计一个有效的司法系统需要充分理解、明确阐述并广泛认同该系统的独特特征。这种理解对于澄清以下问题至关重要:
Designing an effective judicial system for the Oneida Nation requires that the unique characteristics of the system in which it is intended to operate be fully understood, explicitly stated, and widely agreed upon. This understanding is essential to clarify such questions as
• 为什么需要独立的司法系统
• Why a separate judicial system is needed
• 它与现有秩序有何关系
• How it will relate to the existing order
• 不同冲突的主要来源和性质是什么
• What the main source and nature of different conflicts are
奥奈达民族是一个独特的社会体系,这一点并不难理解。奥奈达民族与政府之间的关系不同于其他民族,这些民族的政府在人民生活中的作用要小得多,而且纯粹是非商业性的。因此,对奥奈达司法系统的首要关注将涉及个人与集体之间的关系。
That the Oneida Nation is a unique social system should not be so difficult to understand. The relationship between the Oneidas and their government is different from that of nations whose governments play a much smaller role, and a purely noncommercial one at that, in the lives of their people. Therefore, the overriding concern for the Oneida judicial system would involve the relationship between the individual and the collectivity.
政府对关键资源集体所有权的责任,虽然在特殊情况下可能发挥有益作用,但充满了强大的政治影响。对于那些政府除了治理之外还承担集体所有权责任的国家来说,这两项职能的安排和执行方式对其系统性后果影响巨大。以下几点强调了将这两项职能捆绑在一起的一些不利后果:
Government responsibility for collective ownership of critical resources, while it may serve a useful purpose in special contexts, is fraught with powerful political implications. For nations whose governments are saddled with the responsibility for collective ownership in addition to governance, the way the two functions are arranged and prosecuted impacts their systemic consequences enormously. The following points underline some of the adverse consequences of bundling up the two functions:
• 治理和业务管理角色将变得过于混乱,即使在最理想的情况下,也无法令人满意地实现和评估。
• The governance and business management roles would get so mixed up that neither of them, even under the most ideal circumstances, could be achieved and assessed satisfactorily.
• 政府不仅要负责正常的治理职能,还要负责提供就业机会,以此作为分配财富的手段。这种安排的第一个牺牲品就是失去明确的责任制。将政府就业视为一项权利而不是一项特权的自然后果是消除了能力作为就业要求。结果将是一种不负责任的倾向,即少做多得,以及一种以敌意和消极为特征的新兴态度。
• Government becomes responsible, not only for normal governance functions, but also for providing employment as a means of distributing wealth. Loss of clear-cut accountability would then be the first casualty of such an arrangement. The natural consequence of regarding government employment as a right rather than a privilege eliminates competence as a requirement for employment. The result would be an irresponsible tendency to do less for more, and a burgeoning attitude characterized by hostility and negativity.
• 在单一雇主的环境中,个人对国家的依赖将呈现更大、更复杂的层面。失去工作就等于永久失业和陷入赤贫。长期依赖将滋生习得性无助、沮丧、疏离感和对免费服务的无止境需求。经理与其下属之间正常互动中产生的自然冲突将带有政治色彩,并被提交给政治系统。在此背景下,制定和执行公平就业合同(人力资源政策)将成为每个成员最敏感和最关键的关注点。
• In a single-employer environment, the individual's dependency on the state would take on larger and more complex dimensions. Losing one's job would then be tantamount to permanent unemployment and condemnation to abject poverty. Chronic dependency would breed learned helplessness, frustration, alienation, and a culture of insatiable demand for free services. Natural conflicts arising out of the normal interactions between a manager and his or her subordinate would take on a political tone and be referred to the political system. In this context, development and enforcement of equitable employment contracts (HR policies) will become the most sensitive and vital concern of every member.
• 基于个人利益甚至风格偏好,对任何决定的不满都可能转化为破坏性的政治压力。压力团体的激增和日益顽固将进一步加剧公民与国家之间的相互依赖,直至达到爆炸性的程度。随之而来的是,多数派分裂为几个利益集团,这将导致日益边缘化的压力团体基于手段而非目的的协议,建立不稳定的权宜联盟。人们将放弃对国家授权的归属,而是围绕隐藏的、非理性的议程进行分裂,这些议程的恶意目的是威胁、瘫痪并最终破坏他们所属的体系。结果,政府不得不越来越陷入困境,并最终因不断激增的抱怨而无法正常运作。如果任由这种势不可挡的趋势继续下去,将迫使系统要么诉诸旨在压制所有反对意见的独裁风格,要么屈服于全面瘫痪。
• Based on personal interests and even stylistic preferences, dissatisfactions with any decisions could metastasize into disruptive political pressures. Proliferation and increased intransigence of pressure groups would then further strain the citizen–state interdependencies until they reach explosive proportions. The ensuing fragmentation of the majority into several interest groups would give rise to ever-marginalized pressure groups striking volatile coalitions of convenience based on agreements on means rather than on ends. People would abandon their affiliations around the national mandates and, instead, become subdivided around hidden and irrational agendas maliciously intended to threaten, paralyze, and ultimately undermine the system of which they are a part. As a consequence, the administration cannot help but become increasingly bogged down and eventually truncated from its normal functions by a nightmare of ever-proliferating complaints. This overwhelming tendency, if allowed to continue, would force the system to either resort to an authoritarian style intended to silence all opposition or just cave in to total paralysis.
当国家成为唯一的权力主体时,必须存在一个有效的机制来调解个人与国家之间的关系。否则,政治压力将变得更加明显,并成为解决原本非政治性不满的唯一可能途径。
When the state is the only game in town, existence of an effective mechanism to mediate between the individual and the state becomes a must. Otherwise, political pressure would become more pronounced and present itself as the only possible recourse for redressing grievances that are originally nonpolitical.
司法系统的成功取决于它能否有效处理人类互动中不可避免的正常冲突。然而,如果司法系统的设计存在结构性冲突(冲突的产生是对抗性设计的结构而不是个性冲突的结果),那么任何健全的司法系统都无法应对这种天生有缺陷的系统所产生的冲突副作用。例如,由于普遍倾向于将治理与集体所有权管理混为一谈而产生的持续不断的拉锯战,将使任何司法系统陷入双输的局面。冲突的产生和冲突的解决之间通常永无休止的较量,最终的输家是公众的公平感,这是这种有缺陷的方法的典型表现。
The success of a judicial system lies in its effectiveness in handling normal conflicts that are the inevitable by-products of human interactions. If, however, the design suffers from structural conflicts (conflicts whose generation is a function of adversarially designed structures rather than clashes of personalities), then no robust judicial system would ever be capable of coping with the conflictual side effects of such an inherently flawed system. The constant tugs-of-war, arising, for example, from a common tendency to commingle governance proper with management of collective ownership, would produce a no-win situation for any judicial system. The usual never-ending contest between conflict generation and conflict resolution, where public sense of fairness would be the ultimate loser, is symptomatic of such a flawed approach.
当特定的社会经济条件使得政府必须承担集体所有权的角色时,最好确保两种职能的管理尽可能分开。公共资源的管理应被视为代表人民进行的托管,人民才是资产的真正所有者。就这种托管责任而言,系统的设计必须反映这种运作的商业性质。
When particular socioeconomic conditions make it imperative for the government to assume a collective-ownership role, it is best to make sure that the managements of the two functions are kept separate from each other as much as possible. The stewardship of public resources should be treated as a trusteeship undertaken on behalf of the people, who are the real owners of the assets. As far as this trusteeship responsibility is concerned, the system would have to be designed to reflect the commercial nature of such an operation.
这一考虑是 Oneida 新架构设计的关键因素。总体设计旨在创建一个没有结构冲突的系统。它将治理行为与业务管理行为分开,将它们分配到具有不同绩效标准和衡量标准的不同但相互关联的平台。
This concern has been a critical element in designing Oneida's new architecture. The overall design is intended, among other things, to generate a system free from structural conflict. It separates the conduct of governance from the conduct of the business management by assigning them to distinct, though interrelated, platforms with different performance criteria and measures.
为了充分利用治理与集体所有权相结合的积极因素并尽量减少负面影响,建议学习和业务系统平台成为额外的独立就业来源(每个平台都有单独的人力资源部门)。这一举措将产生扩大和增加系统内部多样性来源的倾向,而不是形成减少成员选择的单一垄断。在这种情况下,尽管传统观点认为某些关键功能的冗余是解决方案,而不是问题。业务平台应通过扩大私人和集体所有权的机会来提供额外的多样性来源。
To capitalize on the positives and minimize the negatives of combining governance with collective ownership, it is recommended that the learning and business systems platforms become additional and independent sources of employment (each with a separate HR department). This move will create a propensity to expand and increase internal sources of variety in the system, instead of creating a single monopoly that reduces the choices of members. Under these conditions, redundancy of some critical functions is, despite the conventional wisdom, the solution rather than the problem. The business platform should provide additional sources of variety by expanding opportunities for private as well as collective ownership.
集体所有权承担着一系列责任,赋予其相应的权力。同样,个人也拥有与相应义务相对应的某些权利。因此,司法系统应确保权利和责任之间存在四方面的平衡和互惠:一方面是个人与国家之间,另一方面是个人与国家之间。权利和责任是不可分割的;它们是同一枚硬币的两面。两者缺一不可。
Collective ownership carries a series of responsibilities that saddle it with commensurate powers. By the same token, the individual has certain rights that correspond with commensurate duties. The judicial system should therefore make sure that there exists a four-pronged balance and reciprocity between rights and responsibilities: both within those of the individual and those of the Nation on the one hand, as well as between the individual's and the Nation's on the other. Rights and responsibilities are indivisible; they are two sides of the same coin. Neither could exist without the other.
该系统应具有内在能力,能够区分个人的权利和特权与政府的治理和商业责任。个人和政府所代表的集体都有各自独立但又相互关联的权利和责任。这两组权利和责任不仅不是相互排斥的,而且本质上是互补的。事实上,它们是如此相互依存,以至于处理其中之一时必须触及另一个。
The system should have a built-in capability to differentiate between entitlements and privileges of the individual on the one hand, and the governance and commercial responsibilities of the government on the other. The individual and the collectivity, which is represented by the government, both have separate, and yet interrelated, rights and responsibilities. Not only are these two sets of rights and responsibilities not exclusive, but they are essentially complementary. In fact, they are so interdependent that one could not be dealt with without touching the other.
集体拥有独特的安全、生存和主权权利。它有权采取行动;其决策过程不能被劫持。它还负责确保个人,即使是少数人,也有足够的选择,使他的选择有意义。
Collectivity has distinct rights to security, viability, and sovereignty. It has a right to act; its decision process cannot be taken hostage. It is also responsible for making sure that the individual, even as a minority of one, is provided with enough alternatives to make his/her choices meaningful.
公民个人拥有不可剥夺的权利,例如隐私权和不受歧视的权利。除了这些权利之外,个人还可以享有某些特权,只要满足或不满足某些条件,他/她可以获得或失去这些特权。然而,个人可能会失去他/她滥用的特权;不负责任的驾驶就是一个明显的例子。
An individual citizen has inalienable rights, such as the right to privacy and the right not to be discriminated against. In addition to the rights, the individual can enjoy certain privileges, which he/she may acquire or lose, provided certain conditions are, or are not, satisfied. The individual, however, stands to lose the privileges that he/she abuses; irresponsible driving would be one obvious example.
现有的司法替代方案成本过高。高昂的司法成本使非富裕阶层越来越难以获得司法服务。对于普通民众而言,司法已成为一种无法承受的商品。维持几乎任何诉讼所需的时间和金钱使得追求司法成为一种奢侈,不是很多人都能负担得起。很多时候,即使胜诉也是虚幻的。因此,奥奈达司法系统的设计应使所有奥奈达人都能使用且负担得起,并能够解决公民与集体之间的担忧,而这些担忧原本无法通过现有系统得到满足。
The existing judicial alternative in the environment has turned out to be too costly. The exorbitant cost of justice has pushed it increasingly out of the reach of the non-wealthy. As far as ordinary people are concerned, it has become an unaffordable commodity. The amount of time and money required to sustain almost any litigation makes the pursuit of justice a luxury not many can afford. More often than not, even winning would be illusory. The Oneida judicial system should therefore be designed in such a way that it will be both accessible to and affordable for all Oneidas, and be capable of addressing those concerns of the citizens versus the collectivity that would otherwise remain unmet by the containing system.
第 11 章 巴特沃斯医疗系统
Chapter 11. Butterworth Health System
巴特沃斯医疗系统围绕一种与当前做法截然不同的护理概念进行了重新设计。目前的医疗保健系统起源于疾病护理。基于疾病的医疗保健系统的成本回收方面与三个基本概念有关——按服务收费、成本加成运营和第三方付款人——没有自我控制机制。该系统以无法控制的成本增长刺激了无止境的需求。新的设计试图以一种相互补充的方式化解医疗保健系统的患者、提供者、付款人和管理者之间的结构性冲突,而不会损害任何一方的利益。多维架构明确确定了价值链、护理系统的关键维度以及不同利益相关者之间的关系。该架构不仅旨在化解现有的“混乱”,而且还旨在通过制定下一代医疗保健系统的愿景来超越它。
Butterworth Health System redesigns itself around a concept of care that makes a significant break from the current practice. The present health-care system has its origin in sickness care. The cost-recovery aspect of a sickness-based health-care system has been associated with three basic conceptions — fee for service, cost plus operation, and third-party payer — with no mechanism of self-control. The system has fueled an insatiable demand with an uncontrollable increasing cost. The new design tries to dissolve the structural conflict among patients, providers, payers, and administrators of the health-care system in such a way that they complement each other without any of them being compromised. A multidimensional architecture explicitly identifies the value chain, the critical dimensions of the care system, and how different stakeholders relate to one another. The architecture is intended not only to dissolve the existing “mess” but also to transcend it by developing a vision of the next generation of a health-care system.
本报告总结了 Butterworth 围绕护理理念进行重新设计的努力,该理念与当前实践有重大突破。该报告提出了 Butterworth 期望未来的共同愿景。它由设计团队积极参与制作。代表 Butterworth 的成员包括 Katy Black、Sharon Buursma、Priscilla A. Dakin、Roy Eickman、Michael Freed、William G. Gonzalez、Joyce Henry、Jean Hitchcock、Pat Marks、Philip McCorkle、Irma Napoli、Tom Ouellette、Jon Ganz, MD、Ray Gonzales, MD、Brian Roelof, MD、Suzanne Rogers、Joel Sacks, MD、Carol Sarosik、James F. VanDam, MD、Fred Vandenberg 和 Randy Wagner。代表 INTERACT 的成员包括 Jamshid Gharajedaghi 和 Bijan Khorram。
This report summarizes Butterworth's attempt to redesign itself around a concept of care that makes a significant break from the current practice. The report projects a shared vision of Butterworth's desired future. It is produced by active participation of the design team. Members representing Butterworth are Katy Black, Sharon Buursma, Priscilla A. Dakin, Roy Eickman, Michael Freed, William G. Gonzalez, Joyce Henry, Jean Hitchcock, Pat Marks, Philip McCorkle, Irma Napoli, Tom Ouellette, Jon Ganz, M.D., Ray Gonzales, M.D., Brian Roelof, M.D., Suzanne Rogers, Joel Sacks, M.D., Carol Sarosik, James F. VanDam, M.D., Fred Vandenberg, and Randy Wagner. Members representing INTERACT are Jamshid Gharajedaghi and Bijan Khorram.
该设计经过六次迭代,旨在就以下关键点达成共识:
The design represents six iterations directed at generating consensus on the following key points:
• 对组织中利益相关者的问题、顾虑和期望有共同的理解
• Shared understanding of the issues, concerns, and expectations of those who have a stake in the organization
• 对新兴医疗环境的共同理解
• Shared understanding of the emerging health-care environment
• 确定系统的目的和战略意图
• Identification of the purpose and strategic intent of the system
• 确定所需系统的规格
• Identification of the specifications of the desired system
• 系统架构的开发(主要组件及其关系)
• Development of the systems architecture (major components and their relationships)
为了满足本书的篇幅限制,200 页的设计文档必须压缩为 40 页。为了尽量减少对整体设计的损害,主要削减集中在架构的营销、管理和治理方面。在此过程中,不可避免地会丢失或歪曲一些非常有趣的想法。我希望设计团队能接受我的道歉。
To meet the space limitations of this book, 200 pages of design document had to be condensed to 40 pages. To minimize the compromising effect on the design as a whole, the main reductions were focused on the marketing, administration, and governing dimensions of the architecture. Inevitably in the process, some very interesting ideas have been lost or misrepresented. I hope that the design team will accept my apologies for this.
现行的医疗保健制度起源于疾病护理。它旨在为那些生病并需要医疗护理的人提供服务。利用疾病医疗保健的成本回收方面与三个基本概念有关:服务费、成本加成运营和第三方付款人,定义如下:
The present health-care system has its origin in sickness care. It was designed to provide service to those who fall ill and need medical care. The cost-recovery aspect of utilizing sickness-based health care has been associated with three basic conceptions: fee for service, cost plus operation, and third-party payer, as defined in the following:
当前的模式没有内置的自我控制机制来规范提供者与患者之间的关系。它创造了一个正反馈循环,助长了对更多服务的无止境的需求。只要患者愿意提出要求,提供者愿意提供服务,第三方付款人不介意买单并增加利润,然后再转嫁给最终付款人,需求就会自我滋生。在这种情况下,需求无法合理化。
The current model has no built-in mechanism of self-control to discipline the relationship between the provider and the patient. It has created a positive feedback loop that has fueled an insatiable demand for more services. The demand feeds on itself as long as patients are willing to ask, providers are eager to serve, and third-party payers do not mind picking up the tab and adding a margin before passing it on to the ultimate payer. In such a context, demand cannot be rationalized.
技术的进步扩大了医学不断取得突破的可能性。结果,预期寿命增加,推迟最终退出的愿望导致对技术的需求呈指数级增长。然而,技术只能以高昂的成本推迟最终退出,而且每次这样做都会进一步加剧需求的无止境。这种不惜一切代价推迟最终退出的需求的指数级增长是不能被控制的——尤其是如果成本被方便地转嫁给第三方付款人,让要求苛刻的民众产生持续免费午餐的幻想。
Advances in technology have expanded the possibilities for continuous medical breakthroughs. As a result, life expectancy has increased and the desire to delay the final exit has caused the demand for technology to grow exponentially. However, technology can only delay the final exit at exorbitant costs, and every time it does it further fuels the insatiability of the demand. This exponential growth in demand for postponing the eventuality at all costs cannot be left unchecked — especially if costs are conveniently passed to a third-party payer, leaving the demanding population under the illusion of a continuous free lunch.
该系统似乎已经达到了上限。该系统的利益相关者担心其不负责任地追求更多、更好、更昂贵的医疗服务将带来长期后果,因此开始踩刹车。这迫使增长曲线呈 S 形。
The system seems to have hit its upper limit. Alarmed by the long-term consequences of its own irresponsible demand for more, better, and costlier care, the stakeholders of the system have begun to apply the brakes. This has forced the growth curve into an S-shaped form.
针对这种失控升级的第一个纠正措施是引入 HMO 来管理医疗。为了降低医疗成本的上升,必须开始管理医疗,因为 85% 的运营费用被认为是商品(医疗)成本。然而,大多数 HMO 在管理医疗方面并不成功。相反,他们放弃了这一责任,转而采用合同模式,以批发折扣换取数量。因此,HMO 通过将他们的忠实客户送到医疗保健系统来实现规模经济。虽然这降低了增长率,但控制成本的压力仍在继续,管理医疗的想法再次浮出水面。HMO 被迫使用官僚系统和机械运作模式来管理人类医疗保健系统中最情绪化和最敏感的行为。
The first corrective action against this runaway escalation has been the introduction of HMOs to manage care. To reduce the rising costs of care, one has to begin to manage the care, since 85% of the operating expenses were assumed to be the cost of goods (care). The majority of HMOs, however, have not been successful at managing care. Instead, they have relinquished this responsibility by moving into a contractual mode that exchanged volume for wholesale discounts. Thus HMOs have achieved economies of scale by delivering their captive customers to the health-care system. Although this has reduced the rate of growth, the pressures to contain costs have continued and the idea of managing care has resurfaced. HMOs have been forced to use a bureaucratic system and a mechanistic mode of operation to manage the most emotional and sensitive behavior of a human system of health care.
毫不奇怪,机械化的医疗管理遭到了抵制。由官僚来指示医疗系统该做什么或不该做什么的想法,对于两个关键利益相关者(患者和提供者)来说是不可接受的。尽管一些 HMO 已经开发出更复杂的医疗管理模式,但它们仍保留了官僚主义的特点,并在机械框架内运作。结构性冲突,加上难以为本质上复杂的生命现象开发简单的机械解决方案,导致了问题的放弃。新兴的应对措施屈服于人头税(按人头付费)的概念,将决策和财务风险从供应链中推向提供者层面。
Not surprisingly, the mechanistic management of care has been received with resistance. The idea of a bureaucrat telling the health-care system what to do, or not to do, proved unacceptable for the two critical stakeholders: the patient and the provider. Although some HMOs have developed more elaborate models to manage care, they have retained their bureaucratic character and have operated within a mechanical framework. Structural conflict, compounded by intractability of developing a simple mechanistic solution to what is essentially a complex living phenomenon, has led to the abdication of the problem. The emerging response yielded itself to the concept of capitation (per-head payment), pushing the decision and the financial risk lower in the supply chain to the provider level.
与人头税同步发展,预防保健的概念已成为控制成本的有效方法。健康维护组织默认参与其中,并将医疗保健的概念扩大到包括健康。健康与人头税的结合有望成为解决护理非人性化问题的有效方法,因为它消除了官僚作为患者和提供者之间的干预者。
In a parallel development to capitation, the concept of preventive care has emerged as an effective way to control costs. HMOs got into the act by default and broadened the notion of health care to include wellness. The combination of wellness with capitation had promised to be an effective solution to the problem of depersonalization of care by removing the bureaucrat as an intervening agent between the patient and the provider.
只要服务仅限于预防和常规护理,且在总体健康人群中实施,且风险分布正常且易于评估和管理,这种方法就可能有效。然而,当急性病例的治疗与日常健康维护实践相结合时,风险管理的概念就具有了全新的意义。在传统的人头税模式下,患者群体在初级保健医生中分配,每位成员的报酬固定。人口越少,风险越高。这与保险的概念背道而驰,保险的概念是降低大群体中的风险。否则,保险的想法就毫无意义了。
This could have proved effective as long as the service was limited to preventive and normal care and was carried out in the context of a generally healthy population with a normal risk distribution that could easily be assessed and managed. However, when the treatment of acute cases is mixed in with the routine practice of health maintenance, the notion of risk management takes on a whole new significance. In the conventional capitation model, the patient population is distributed among the primary care physicians with a fixed payment per member. The smaller the population, the higher the risk. This is contrary to the notion of insurance, which is to reduce risk within a large population. Otherwise, the idea of insurance would be pointless.
为了解决分配给初级保健医生的小组的风险问题,一些 HMO 提供了特殊的病例审批流程。结果,在涉及生死攸关决定的病例中,该系统再次将责任转交给机械的官僚机构。因此,不仅医生和患者之间,而且医生和保险公司之间的冲突问题再次出现。
To overcome the problem of risk in subgroups assigned to primary care physicians, some HMOs have provided a special case approval process. As a consequence, in cases that involve life and death decisions, the system once again refers the responsibility back to its mechanistic bureaucracy. Thus the old problem of conflict is renewed not only between the physician and the patient but also between the physician and the insurance company.
进一步加剧这种情况的是,假设初级医生将支付专科护理服务的费用,这会使敏感的医患关系以及全科医生与专科医生的关系陷入怀疑和争议之中。仅仅感觉到利益冲突,即使毫无根据,也无助于建立在不可动摇的信任基础上的关系。主要利益相关者(初级保健医生、医疗专科医生和患者)之间的信任是任何医疗保健模式成功的最关键因素。任何结构性冲突的概念都会破坏整个系统。在系统成熟之前,应该先消除这种怀疑。这意味着需要制定足够的保障措施,以确保系统的正常运转不受损害。
To aggravate the situation further, the supposition that the primary physician will pay for the services of specialized care throws the sensitive patient–physician relationship, as well as the general practitioner–specialist relationship, into suspicion and controversy. The mere perception of a conflict of interest, even if unfounded, is not helpful in a relationship that should be based upon unshakable trust. Trust among major stakeholders (primary care physician, medical specialist, and patient) is the most crucial element for the success of any health-care model. Any notion of structural conflict will disrupt the whole system. Until the system comes of age, such suspicions should be preempted. This would imply the need to create enough safeguards to make sure that proper functioning of the system is not compromised.
对敏感机构(其中最重要的是医疗保健系统)的重大改革应考虑社会实验的风险。对社会环境的干预一旦开始,往往会自行发展。当原因消失时,其影响并不一定消失。在社会领域,因果在时间和空间上是分开的。行动的后果可能需要一段时间才能实现;因此,任何新设计都应保持开放、灵活,并注意其行动的不可逆转的后果。
The major overhaul of sensitive institutions, foremost among them the health-care system, should consider the risks of social experimentation. Interventions into social contexts, once brought into existence, tend to take on a life of their own. When a cause goes away, its effects do not necessarily go away. In social domains, cause and effect are separated in time and space. Consequences of an action may take some time to realize; therefore, any new design should be kept deliberately open, flexible, and mindful of irreversible consequences of its actions.
新的设计应该为均衡的方法创造机会。它应该避免在一个方向上的极端关注和随后的相反方向的逆转之间交替。按服务收费、人头税和其他有用概念的优点应该被纳入一个包罗万象的系统,该系统将允许选择和适应行为,而不会在此过程中出现无休止的破坏性波动。该系统应该通过纳入不同的替代方案来扩大其多样性来源,并通过不断的选择和学习不断发展。
The new design should create an opportunity for a well-balanced approach. It should avoid alternating between extreme concerns in one direction followed by subsequent reversals in the opposite direction. The virtues of fee for service, capitation, and other useful concepts should be incorporated into an encompassing system that will allow for choice and adaptive behavior without an endless series of disruptive fluctuations along the way. The system should expand its sources of variety by incorporating different alternatives and evolve through continuous selection and learning.
新系统应该:
The new system should:
• 合理化供需关系,使患者获得最佳质量的护理,而不会助长对浪费服务的过度需求
• Rationalize the relationship between supply and demand in such a way that the patients receive optimum quality care without fueling an insatiable demand for wasteful services
• 利用先进的技术提供尽可能最好的护理,而不会产生不合理的期望
• Utilize advanced technology to provide the best possible care without creating unreasonable expectations
• 化解医疗体系中患者、提供者、付款人和管理者之间的结构性冲突,使他们相互补充,不受任何一方的损害
• Dissolve the structural conflict among patients, providers, payers, and administrators of the health-care system in such a way that they complement each other without any of them being compromised
• 最大限度地提高系统的灵活性和响应能力,充分利用医疗保健市场中现有和新兴的可能性
• Maximize the flexibility and responsiveness of the system and take full advantage of the existing and emerging possibilities in the health-care market
• 具有不断学习、适应和更新的能力
• Be capable of continuous learning, adaptation, and renewal
• 代表医疗服务管理的最新水平,但又不陷入不可逆转的社会实验
• Represent the state-of-the-art in health delivery management without getting sidetracked into irrevocable social experimentation
• 遏制和化解现有制度设置中预先存在的状况(混乱),同时防止其蔓延到新创建的组成部分
• Contain and dissolve the pre-existing conditions (the mess) in the current institutional setup while preventing them from spilling over into the newly created components
该架构代表了一个平台,巴特沃斯独特的价值链将从这个平台发展而来。价值链确定了医疗保健系统的所有要素及其在市场维度(准入和护理系统)、输出维度(医疗服务模块)和输入维度(核心知识和共享服务)上的关系。
The architecture represents a platform from which Butterworth's distinctive value chain will evolve. The value chain identifies all of the elements of the health-care system and their relationships along a market dimension (access and care systems), an output dimension (health delivery modules), and an input dimension (core knowledge and shared services).
这种多维框架不仅可以帮助设计师理解和区分系统的每个组件,还可以建立组件之间的关系,从而形成一个完整而有凝聚力的整体。设计和整合缺失的元素(可以通过价值链分析来确定)将产生一个增值系统,其中整体产生的价值将大于各部分产生的价值之和。
This multidimensional framework not only helps the designers understand and differentiate each component of the system, but also establishes the components' relationships in such a way that an integrated and cohesive whole can emerge. Design and incorporation of the missing elements, which can be identified by an analysis of the value chain, will lead to a value-adding system in which the value generated by the whole will be greater than the sum of the values produced by the parts.
市场层面涉及医疗保健系统的用户。市场由三个基本要素定义:需求、获取和购买力。
The market dimension deals with the users of the health-care system. A market is defined in terms of three essential elements: need, access, and purchasing power.
医疗保健需求的分类和适当分组决定了所提供的产品和服务的性质。这些将在下一节关于护理系统的部分中详细讨论。然而,将用户划分为不同的群体反映了他们的购买力,并决定了接触他们所需的市场准入机制。
The classification and proper grouping of health-care needs define the nature of products and services rendered. These will be discussed in detail under the following section on the care system. However, the classification of users into various groupings reflects their purchasing power and defines the market access mechanism necessary to reach them.
医疗保健系统的用户传统上分为以下几种机构模式。
Users of the health-care system are traditionally grouped into the following institutional models.
传统保险公司如蓝十字和蓝盾通常采用按服务收费的安排。会员可以自由选择自己的提供商,提供商将按成本加成的方式获得报酬。密歇根州蓝十字/蓝盾已转为管理支付系统;它按诊断相关组 (DRG) 支付。这种安排导致了介入护理系统的发展。
The traditional insurance companies such as Blue Cross and Blue Shield usually represent fee-for-service arrangements. Members are free to choose their own providers, who are compensated on a cost plus basis. Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Michigan has converted to a managed payment system; it pays on a diagnostic-related group (DRG) basis. This arrangement has caused the development of the interventional care system.
HMO 的设计初衷是通过管理会员的医疗保健需求来控制不断上涨的医疗保健成本。他们以折扣价与供应商签订合同,接受医疗服务。HMO 患者仅限于一组预先选定的供应商。在不断发展的 HMO 中,供应商会获得一笔固定的每位会员费用,称为人头费,用于支付所提供的服务。尽管 HMO 最初以疾病护理为导向,但为了控制治疗成本,他们已开始将预防、维护和健康纳入其服务范围——因此有“管理式医疗计划”一词。
HMOs were designed as a way to curb the rising costs of health care by managing the members' health-care demand needs. They contract for care on a discounted basis from providers. HMO patients are limited to a preselected group of providers. In evolving HMOs, the providers are given a fixed per-member sum, called capitation, to be drawn against for services rendered. Although originally sick-care oriented, HMOs have begun to build prevention, maintenance, and wellness into their services to curb the treatment costs — hence the term “managed-care plans.”
独立人士或自保人群包括雇主,他们根据自己设计的计划为会员支付与健康相关的费用。他们可以选择将系统的管理外包给 HMO、其他保险公司或第三方管理者 (TPA)。要有效地为这个群体服务,需要很大的灵活性,因为每个群体都代表着各种不同的设计。
The independents, or self-insured populations, include employers who finance health-related charges for their members based on the plans they design for themselves. They may choose to outsource the management of their system to HMOs, to other insurance companies, or to third-party administrators (TPAs). To serve this group effectively requires a great degree of flexibility because each represents a variety of different designs.
联邦医疗保险是联邦政府为达到一定年龄(约 65 岁)并已缴纳最低保费的人士提供的医疗保险计划。联邦医疗保险正开始让患者转向管理式医疗计划。
Medicare is a federal government health insurance plan for those who have reached a certain age (around 65) and have contributed the minimum premiums required to the fund. Medicare is beginning to move patients toward managed-care plans.
医疗补助计划主要是州政府为那些缺乏资源照顾自己的人提供的健康保险计划。它还为穷人提供养老院的长期维护资金。一些州的计划也开始让患者转向管理式医疗计划。
Medicaid is primarily a state government health insurance plan for those who lack the resources to take care of themselves. It also provides nursing home funding for long-term maintenance for the poor. Some state plans are also beginning to move patients toward managed-care plans.
未受保客户是没有权利的个人,他们不属于任何保险计划的成员。对这些人的护理对医疗系统来说非常重要。他们最终通过急诊室和住院医院接受治疗,但这些医院的报销额很少或根本没有。
Noncovered customers are disenfranchised individuals who are not members of any insurance plan. The care for these individuals is important to the health system. They ultimately receive care through emergency rooms and inpatient hospitals that receive little or no reimbursement.
Butterworth 医疗系统可以主动设计和试验一个选定的社区非保险客户群体,并为他们提供 Butterworth 健康保险卡。该计划将明确解决 Butterworth 的使命,即为社区服务,无论其支付能力如何。该计划将由 Butterworth 和/或 Butterworth 基金会资助。以后,该计划可以扩展到包括社区中其他服务不足的人群。创建该计划不仅可以将无权者视为任何其他客户,还可以使 Butterworth 对社区的贡献可见且可衡量。
Butterworth Health System may take the initiative to design and experiment with a select neighborhood group of noncovered customers and provide them with a Butterworth Health Coverage Card. This program would explicitly address the mission of Butterworth to serve the community, irrespective of ability to pay. The program would be financed by Butterworth and/or the Butterworth Foundation. Later on, the program could be extended to include other underserved populations in the community. Creation of this program would not only make it possible to treat the disenfranchised as any other client, but would also make Butterworth's contribution to the community visible and measurable.
市场准入职能的主要职责包括:市场评估、包装、产品/市场谈判、客户/消费者满意度评估和医疗系统营销。
The key responsibilities of the market access function will involve the following: market assessment, packaging, product/market negotiations, customer/consumer satisfaction assessment, and health-system marketing.
作为巴特沃斯架构的基本维度之一,护理系统将负责定义和监控系统的虚拟输出。通过这样做,它将弥合市场与医疗保健产品和服务的实际交付之间的差距。
As one of the basic dimensions of the Butterworth architecture, the care system will be responsible for defining and monitoring the virtual output of the system. By doing so, it will bridge the gap between the market and the actual delivery of health-care products and services.
这种形式的护理系统设计体现了一套概念模型、方法和产品,它们代表了一套独特的医疗服务管理系统的运作。这些模型和方法包括护理管理、风险管理、质量管理(利用)和转诊协议。然而,实际护理的提供发生在医疗服务模块中。
The design of the care system in this format embodies a set of conceptual models, methodologies, and products that represent the operationalization of a distinct system of health delivery management. Such models and methodologies include care management, risk management, quality management (utilization), and referral protocols. The provision of actual care, however, happens at the health delivery modules.
尽管人们早已认识到健康维护和预防保健是控制成本的有效手段,但医疗保健系统中几乎没有开发重要的健康子系统。由于缺乏足够的资金来源,很少有人主动解决传统的“护理”概念并制定必要的操作协议。本文介绍的护理系统的发展将通过引入大胆、务实的维度来填补医疗保健环境中的长期空白。
Despite the fact that health maintenance and preventive care have long been recognized as an effective means of cost control, development of a significant wellness subsystem is practically nonexistent in the health-care system. Few have taken it upon themselves to address the traditional concept of “care” and develop the necessary operational protocols because of lack of adequate funding sources. Development of the care system, as presented here, will fill the chronic void in the health-care environment by introducing a bold, pragmatic dimension.
改变医疗支付方式的传统方法本身并不能使系统朝着预期的方向改革。这些方法的重点主要是支付安排。支付虽然很重要,但只是其中一个问题。综合方法应该解决特定医疗系统的整体问题,包括财务、运营、技术和行为方面的问题。
The conventional approaches of changing the way we pay for health care in and of themselves will not reform the system in the desired direction. Their focus is essentially on payment arrangements. Payment, while important, is but one of the concerns. A comprehensive approach should address the totality of a given care system, including financial as well as operational, technical, and behavioral viewpoints.
护理系统与人们最脆弱的时候打交道。它将涉及人们生活中最敏感的方面。因此,设计应谨慎进行,因为社会制度一旦建立,就不能轻易撤销。因此,护理系统应代表一个全面的框架,它将:
The care system deals with people when they are most vulnerable. It will involve the most sensitive aspect of people's lives. The design, therefore, should proceed with care because social institutions, once created, cannot be easily undone. The care system should therefore represent a comprehensive framework that will:
• 抓住整个医疗管理中缺失的维度——可以化解系统中可能的结构性冲突并在患者、提供者和付款人之间创造双赢解决方案的中间环节
• Capture the missing dimension in the total management of care — the intervening link that can dissolve possible structural conflicts in the system and create win/win solutions among the patient, provider, and payer
• 在当前环境中具有生存能力,但也能够在不断变化的环境中不断学习和适应
• Be viable in the current environment, but will also be capable of continuous learning and adaptation in changing environments
• 为患者和付款人提供最大程度的灵活性,让他们可以在所需服务(选择护理模块)、服务获取(选择提供者)和付款安排(选择人头税和/或服务费)方面做出选择
• Allow maximum flexibility for the patient and the payer to exercise choice in terms of required services (selection of care module), access (selection of provider), and payment arrangements (selection of capitation and/or fee for service)
• 围绕产品差异化、产品开发和产品管理,使其每个组成模块能够:
• Center around product differentiation, product development, and product management to enable each of its constituent modules to:
• 代表一种独特的护理类别;虽然它们各自独立,但共同构成一个整体
• Represent a unique category of care; while individually independent, collectively they will create an integrated whole
• 遵循报销模式,以最佳地优化护理系统的多个目标(成本、质量、简单性,以及最重要的,避免付款人、患者和提供者之间的结构性冲突)
• Follow a model of reimbursement that will best optimize multiple objectives of the care system (cost, quality, simplicity, and, most important, avoidance of structural conflict between payer, patient, and provider)
• 无需依赖基础设施,可以最大程度地选择和利用各种护理设施,如医院、家庭、诊所和护理中心
• Become infrastructure-free, allowing maximum choice in selection and utilization of various care facilities, such as hospitals, homes, clinics, and care centers
• 成为一个分散和区域化的以社区为导向的卫生服务体系,以便能够针对具有不同卫生相关需求的现有和潜在社区制定快速和差异化的反应
• Be a decentralized and regionalized community-oriented health delivery system in order to be able to develop rapid and differential responses to its existing and potential communities with different health-related needs
• 保持所有选择的开放性,保持足够的敏捷性和灵活性,以便能够利用快速变化和不可预测的医疗保健环境中出现的机遇
• Keep all its options open and remain agile and flexible enough so it can take advantage of the emerging opportunities in the rapidly changing and unpredictable health-care environment
• 将其绩效与相关的最新标准进行对比,确保(1)医疗服务体系(HDS)的健康相关方面以行业内最佳绩效为目标,(2)支持服务,如行政服务、酒店和设施管理以及信息系统,以行业外最佳绩效为目标
• Benchmark its performance against relevant state-of-the-art criteria by making sure that (1) the health-related aspect of the health delivery system (HDS) is targeted at the best performance within the industry and (2) the support services, such as the administrative services, hospitality and facility management, and information systems, are targeted at the best performance outside the industry
• 通过重新设计吞吐量系统,实现运营设施成本效益的数量级提升
• Achieve an order-of-magnitude improvement in the cost-effectiveness of operating facilities by redesigning the throughput system
• 采用并实施新的社会计算方法,鼓励识别和消除浪费以及价值链交易和产能利用率
• Adopt and operationalize a new social calculus to encourage identification and elimination of waste and value-chain transaction and capacity utilization
• 用基于交换的客户-供应商关系取代功能失调的矩阵组织(双老板制),以消除结构性冲突,创造与系统架构兼容的双赢环境。
• Replace the dysfunctional matrix organization (two-boss system) with an exchange-based customer–supplier relationship to dissolve structural conflicts and create a win/win environment compatible with the systems architecture.
根据上述标准,护理系统的设计与分类如下:
Observation of the previous criteria led to the following design and classification of the care system as
• 预防
• Preventive
• 介入
• Interventional
• 可行性
• Viability
• 终端
• Terminal
为了有效地培育护理系统模块,它们将被启动并运行为独立但相互关联的模块。最初,这些模块将在当前环境之外根据不同的绩效标准集创建或重新设计,以激励它们同时满足用户、提供者和客户(付款人)的需求。稍后,这些组件可以统一或分离或进一步区分。至少在萌芽阶段,将避免统一护理系统的模块,因为这会导致一个模块的发展不平衡,而牺牲其他模块。例如,介入护理模块的现有大小和格式可能会阻碍最新模块的健康发展。
To be effectively cultivated, the care system modules will be initiated and operationalized into separate but interrelated modules. Initially, these modules will be created or redesigned outside of the current environment, under a different set of performance criteria to provide incentive for them to serve the needs of users, providers, and customers (payers) at the same time. Later on, the components can be unified or separated or further differentiated. Unification of the care system's modules, at least at the embryonic stage, will be avoided because it would lead to unbalanced development of one module at the expense of others. For example, the existing size and format of the interventional care module has the potential to obstruct the healthy evolution of the newest modules.
以下内容是护理系统所有模块所共有的:
The following will be common to all modules of the care system:
• 每个护理系统模块都应具备必要的灵活性和能力,以应对按人头付费模式、按服务收费模式、两者结合模式或任何可能证明操作合理的新兴模式。因此,护理系统模块应具备必要的机制,使其具备必要的灵活性,以有效应对新兴模式,并轻松实现必要的转变。
• Each care system module will have the requisite flexibility and capability to deal with the capitated model, the fee-for-service model, a combination of the two, or any emerging variation that could prove operationally sound. The care system modules will therefore have mechanisms that will give them the necessary flexibility to deal effectively with the emerging possibilities and make the necessary transitions with ease.
• 每个护理系统模块还将享有自由和责任,通过市场准入维度将其产品提供给可能承诺潜在客户的任何市场部分。因此,产品(护理系统模块)经理在营销工作中不会局限于单一的 HMO 渠道。他们可以利用不同的准入机制来与独立机构或个人打交道。
• Each care system module will also enjoy the freedom and responsibility to make its offerings available through the market access dimension to any segment of the market that may promise potential clients. The product (care system module) managers will not, therefore, be limited to a single channel of HMO in their marketing efforts. They can take advantage of different access mechanisms to deal with independent institutions or individuals.
• 护理系统模块将需要开发一个交互式操作模型,该模型将不仅向按人头付费和按服务收费的人群开放,而且还向具有不同兴趣和要求的其他潜在群体(如独立承包商)开放。
• The care system modules will require the development of an interactive model of operation that will open the system to not only capitation and fee-for-service populations, but other potential groups such as independent contractors with different interests and requirements.
• 护理系统的开发本质上是产品线的开发。因此,每个护理模块都会有一名产品经理在代表该维度相关利益相关者的委员会下工作,包括医生、护士、财务和支持服务等。
• Development of the care system is essentially the development of a product line. Each care module will therefore have a product manager operating under a board representing the relevant stakeholders of that dimension, including physicians, nurses, financial and support services, and so on.
• 每个护理系统模块将被设计为一个整体的成员,同时作为独立实体进行管理。它将对自己的现金流和财务绩效负责。如果任何一个模块在财务上无法独立,系统可以决定是否补贴或重新设计该模块。
• Each care system module will be designed to be a member of an integrated whole while being managed as a stand-alone entity. It will be responsible for its own cash flow and financial performance. If any one module cannot stand alone financially, the system can decide whether to subsidize or redesign the module.
• 每个护理系统模块都将有一个财务模型,该模型将通过协调积极参与护理服务的主要参与者(提供者、患者和付款人)的利益来预防结构性冲突。
• Each care system module will have a financial model that will preempt structural conflict by aligning the interests of the major players actively involved in the delivery of care: the provider, the patient, and the payer.
• 将制定目标成本核算系统,以确定每个子系统在提供和分配护理方面的相对份额。成本分摊模型将确定商品、销售、护理、共享服务、产品开发和维护以及设施的成本。
• A target costing system will be developed to determine the relative share of each subsystem in the provision and distribution of care. The cost-sharing model will determine the costs of goods, selling, care, shared services, product development and maintenance, and facilities.
• 每个模块都有一定比例的贫困患者,他们将在促进个人责任和自力更生的环境中接受服务。
• Each and every module will have its own share of indigent patients who will be served in an environment that will promote personal responsibility and self-reliance.
• 医疗保健系统将鼓励并登记客户签约全套护理服务:预防、介入、生存和临终关怀。不过,客户可以在所提供的服务中进行选择。
• The health-care system will encourage and register the clients to sign up for a total care package: preventive, interventional, viability, and terminal care. However, customers would have choice among services offered.
• 定价模式应使购买整套产品的成本低于选择性或部分购买。因此,如果鼓励客户同时购买其他产品,那么介入治疗(占医疗服务最大部分)的成本将大幅降低。因此,当一组客户恰好选择部分而非全部使用时,对系统其余部分施加不成比例的分配的影响将大大降低。
• The pricing model should make it cheaper to purchase the product offerings as a total package rather than selectively or on a partial basis. The cost of interventional care, the largest portion of care, will therefore be significantly reduced if the customers are encouraged to buy other pieces as well. Thus, the impact of imposing a disproportional allocation to the rest of the system would be significantly reduced whenever a group of customers happens to opt for partial, rather than total, access.
• 将制定协议,明确系统处理每种类型的患者时预定义的程序顺序。
• Protocols will be formulated to make explicit the predefined sequence of procedures as each type of patient is processed through the system.
• 每个护理模块都有责任定义其信息需求,并与信息系统部门密切合作,开发一个交互式的综合信息支持系统,该系统不仅服务于所有护理系统模块,还服务于所有护理提供者。此信息系统将作为学习系统的输入。护理系统本质上将充当信息系统部门的客户,并为信息产品提供主要市场。
• Each care module will have the responsibility of defining its information requirements and working closely with the information system unit to develop an interactive and comprehensive information support system that will not only service all the care system modules, but all the care providers as well. This information system will act as an input to the learning system. The care system, in essence, will act as a customer of the information system unit and present a major market for information-based products.
• 每个护理系统模块都将配备一个嵌入式学习系统。该系统将明确说明假设和预期结果。它可以并且将根据来自持续监测实际绩效及其与初始假设和预期的比较的输入进行自我修改。
• Each care system module will be equipped with an embedded learning system. The system will have explicitly stated assumptions and expected outcomes. It can and will modify itself based on the inputs that come from continuous monitoring of the actual performance and its comparison with the initial assumptions and expectations.
• 护理系统及其模块的奖励和评估将分三个层次运作:
• The reward and evaluation of the care system and its modules will operate on three levels:
• 在吞吐量级别,护理系统奖励将基于处理量及其有效性的衡量标准。
• At the throughput level, the care system rewards will be based on the measure of the volume processed and its effectiveness.
• 在延迟水平上,护理系统模块奖励将基于对护理系统结果、质量和有效性的衡量,这体现在所覆盖人群的总体健康状况中。
• At the latency level, the care system module rewards will be based on the measure of outcome, quality, and effectiveness of the care system as manifested in the general health of the population covered.
以下是各个护理模块的描述。
Descriptions of individual care modules follow.
预防保健将负责维护和改善整个受保人口的健康。它将通过以下方式履行这一职能:
Preventive care will be responsible for maintaining and improving the health of the covered population as a whole. It will carry out this function by
• 最大限度地保障进入系统的任何人的健康。
• Maximizing the health of anyone who comes into the system.
• 防止未患病或未受伤的人患上疾病或造成残疾。
• Keeping those who are free of illness and injury from developing diseases or having disabilities.
• 尽早发现已患病的人,并通过早期干预和其他预防措施限制进一步的疾病发作。
• Detecting at an early stage those who are already sick and limiting further illness episodes through early intervention and other preventive measures.
• 制定协议,定义推荐的程序顺序,根据初步评估结果,将目标患者群体登记、识别并引导到由合适的医疗服务提供者组成的合适中心,同时尊重和支持每位患者行使知情选择的权利。
• Developing protocols that will define recommended sequences of procedures for registering, identifying, and directing target groups of patients to appropriate centers staffed by appropriate providers based on initial assessment results, while respecting and supporting the right of each patient to exercise informed choice.
• 制定测量和评估系统,奖励成功的早期检测事件。
• Developing a measurement and evaluation system that will reward successful incidents of early detection.
• 通过为患者提供开放的临床专业知识,最大限度地扩大患者的选择范围;根据筛查结果,系统将识别和锁定患者,然后建议患者在推荐的初级保健提供者的指导下遵循首选的治疗方案。
• Maximizing patients' choice by providing them open access to clinical expertise; based on the screening results, the system will identify and target the patients who will then be advised to follow a preferred course of action under a recommended primary care provider.
介入治疗通过提供持续和/或高强度的护理来恢复患者的健康。介入治疗包括以下几个级别的护理:初级、二级和三级。初级治疗将作为非危及生命的问题/症状的门诊患者的接入点,而二级和三级治疗将涉及相对较短时间内的高强度干预。
Interventional care is responsible for restoring the health of patients by offering a continuous and/or intense level of care. The interventional care will consist of the following levels of care: primary, secondary, and tertiary. While primary care will serve as an access point for ambulatory patients with non-life-threatening problems/symptoms, secondary and tertiary care will involve intensive intervention extending over a relatively short period of time.
护理差异化的基础是持续护理需求的程度和专业护理提供者。这些不同级别的护理可以由相同或不同的提供者/护理人员提供,费用也不同。
The basis for care differentiation will be the degree of need for continuous nursing care and a specialty provider(s). These different levels of care can be addressed by the same or different providers/care givers carrying varying costs.
介入治疗将负责以下事项:
Interventional care will be responsible for the following:
• 制定治疗计划,明确专家、支持人员、设施以及转诊和/或出院计划的参与。
• Develop a treatment plan defining the involvement of specialists, support staff, facilities, and referrals and/or discharge plans.
• 介入治疗的报销可能是一种混合方式。虽然初级保健可以整体按人头收费,但二级和三级保健可以通过信托基金采用按服务收费的安排。这将提供灵活性:
• Reimbursement for interventional care will likely be a hybrid. While the primary care can be capitated as a whole, secondary and tertiary care may utilize a version of the fee-for-service arrangement by means of a trust fund. This will provide the flexibility to:
• 处理由于固有的不确定性以及所涉及的其他提供者的数量和不同程度而导致的治疗计划的复杂性。
• Deal with the complexities of a treatment program due to inherent uncertainties and the number and varying degrees of other providers involved.
• 当少数患者可能需要极其昂贵的治疗时管理所涉及的风险。
• Manage the risks involved when small groups of patients may require treatments that are extremely expensive.
• 消除结构性冲突的可能性,避免患者或参与提供者怀疑付款人在制定计划处方时可能有任何不可告人的动机。
• Remove the potentials for structural conflict and avoid the suspicion on the part of the patient or a participating provider that the payer may have any ulterior motive in defining the planned prescriptions.
– 在总体和个体层面优化介入治疗费用。由于风险由系统和个体提供者共同承担,患者的健康不会受到损害。
– Optimize interventional care expenses both at the aggregate and individual levels. The patient's well-being will not be compromised because the risks will be shared between the system and individual providers.
生存力护理负责根据潜在身体限制的性质,最大程度地恢复功能(暂时或永久)。功能限制可能是由于事故、疾病、出生缺陷或年老造成的。生存力护理将提供:
Viability care is responsible for restoring functionality (temporary or permanent) to the maximum extent given the nature of the underlying physical limitations. Functional limitations may occur due to accidents, sickness, birth defects, or old age. Viability care will provide:
• 根据医疗、心理社会和经济资源预测(1)潜在功能改善和(2)重返家庭/社区的前景
• Prognosis for (1) potential functional improvement and (2) the prospect of returning to home/community based on medical, psychosocial, and economic resources
• 无家可归者可获得评估、治疗/设备、输液治疗、教育、精神治疗、监测和接待服务
• Assessment, treatment/equipment, infusion therapy, education, psychiatric therapy, monitoring, and hospitality services, if homeless
生存力护理包括两个层次的护理:康复护理和支持护理。康复护理包括通过消除患者功能限制来恢复活力,而支持护理包括防止现有不可逆转的身体限制进一步恶化。同时,支持护理还包括防止患者感染其他疾病,同时为他们提供补偿性支持,帮助他们发挥基本功能。这两个层次的区别取决于护理的持续时间和功能限制恢复的机会。
Viability care will consist of two levels of care: rehabilitative and supportive. While rehabilitative care will involve revitalizing the patients by removing their functional limitations, supportive care will involve keeping the existing levels of irreversible physical limitations from deteriorating further. At the same time, supportive care will also involve keeping the patients from contracting other illnesses while providing them with compensatory support to help them perform their basic functions. Differentiation between the two levels is based upon the duration of care and the chance of recovery from functional limitations.
临终关怀负责开发人道、有尊严且具有成本效益的方法来照顾被诊断为无法挽回的垂死患者。临终关怀的功能是
Terminal care is responsible for developing humane, dignified, and cost-effective means of taking care of patients who are diagnosed to be irretrievably moribund. The function of terminal care will be to
• 帮助患者和家属度过死亡经历(选择)
• Support patients and families through the death experience (choices)
• 为护理人员提供教育和咨询(心理和法律)
• Provide education and counseling (psychological and legal) to care givers
• 提高管理式医疗的成本效益
• Build cost-effectiveness into managed care
从历史上看,绝症患者的病例给医疗行业带来了最复杂的困境之一。医疗服务提供者的最终职责是挽救患者的生命,但在面对死亡时,他们发现自己处于最尴尬的境地。面对这样的困境,一些人不惜一切代价拖延不可避免的死亡,而另一些人则逃避挑战。如果不能专业地解决整个情况,对所有相关人员来说都是最不公平的。它将继续给患者、家属和医疗系统带来难以承受的心理和社会成本。这里的临终关怀是一种刻意的尝试,旨在明确痛苦的终止问题,并设计一个最佳系统来专业地解决这些问题。
Historically, the cases of terminally ill patients have presented the health profession with one of its most complicated dilemmas. Health-care providers, whose ultimate duty is to save the patient's life, find themselves in a most awkward position when dealing with death. Faced with such a predicament, some go out of their way to delay the inevitable at all costs, while others abdicate the challenge. Failure to address the totality of the situation professionally would be most unfair to all involved. It would continue to exact an unbearable psychological and social cost from the patient, the family, and the health system. Terminal care here is a deliberate attempt to make the painful termination issues explicit and design an optimal system to resolve them professionally.
护理设施(实际或虚拟)将代表架构的输出维度,提供患者/客户和提供者之间的接口。
Care facilities (actual or virtual) will represent the output dimension of the architecture, which provides the interface between the patient/client and the provider.
医疗服务是一个实时系统,其中服务的提供取决于客户和提供者之间的接口。输出维度将由实际发生护理的接口位置表示。此位置不仅限于住院护理。护理可以发生在其他地点,例如流动医疗机构、医生办公室、专科诊所、实验室和诊断中心、疗养院、健身中心和家中。
Health delivery is a real-time system, where the provision of the service is contingent upon the interface between the client and the provider. The output dimension will be represented by the location of the interface where care actually occurs. This location is not limited to in-patient, hospital care. Care can occur at other locations, such as ambulatory health facilities, physicians' offices, specialized clinics, labs and diagnostic centers, nursing homes, fitness centers, and the home.
所有这些设施都包含在医疗服务模块网络中的护理管理中。组织和管理整个网络的运营框架将构成基本的医疗服务模块。该模块将在不同程度上和在 Butterworth 医疗系统覆盖的各个地区自我复制。
All of these facilities are included in the administration of care in the health delivery modules network. The operational framework for organizing and managing the totality of this network will constitute the basic health delivery module. The module will replicate itself in different degrees and in various regions that will be covered by Butterworth Health System.
医疗服务模块负责设施的运营和维护以及患者护理服务的实际提供。这些模块将复制三维架构,拥有自己的共享服务单元,包括设施管理和维护等服务。然而,每种护理服务的提供模式将来自护理系统的各自部分。
The health delivery modules are responsible for the operation and maintenance of the facilities as well as the actual provision of patient care services. The modules will replicate the three-dimensional architecture with their own shared services units, including such services as facilities management and maintenance. However, the model for delivery of each type of care will come from the respective part of the care system.
医疗服务模块的一些突出方面如下:
Some prominent aspects of the health delivery module are as follows:
• 医疗服务模块将培养酒店管理能力。这种能力对于重新设计运营至关重要,这样才能实现绩效指标(尤其是运营成本)的大幅变化。
• The health delivery module will develop a competency in hospitality management. This competency is necessary to redesign the operation so that an order-of-magnitude change in the performance measures, especially cost of operation, can be achieved.
• 作为某个机构不可或缺的一部分的提供者,例如手术室、综合护理单元、专科护理单元和其他辅助部门,将被永久分配到该机构,同时保留其在知识库中的成员资格。
• The providers who are an integral part of a facility, such as operating room, general care unit, specialty care unit, and other ancillary departments, will be permanently assigned to that facility while retaining their membership in the knowledge pool.
• 当前的“急诊室”运营模式将重新构思和设计。它不再被允许作为方便、免费的医疗系统入口。因此,建立分散的区域初级保健中心将有助于消除目前强加给急诊部的不一致职责。这种重新调整将确保急诊部 (ED) 单位能够履行其合法且极其关键的职能,而不必不断被通过 ED 进入且必须在如此紧张的环境中治疗的非紧急转诊所干扰。
• The current model of the “emergency room” operation will be reconceptualized and redesigned. No longer will it be allowed to act as convenient, free access to the care system. Consequently, creation of decentralized regional primary care centers will help take away the incongruent responsibilities that are currently imposed on emergency departments. Such a realignment will make sure that Emergency Department (ED) units can afford to discharge their legitimate, and highly critical, function without having to get constantly sidetracked by nonemergency referrals that come in through the ED and must be treated in such an intense setting.
• 区域初级保健中心将负责其专业领域内的服务。区域初级保健中心的分散式布局将带来额外的优势,即非紧急服务更接近患者所在地。
• Regional primary care centers will be in charge of services that should rightfully fall into their specialized domain. The decentralized arrangements of the regional primary care centers will have the added advantage of bringing nonemergency services closer to where the patients are.
• 通过将急诊科目前大量昂贵的非紧急服务转移到区域初级保健中心,护理系统的整体成本效益将显著提高。
• The overall cost-effectiveness of the care system will be significantly increased by redirecting an enormous amount of expensive nonemergency services, currently seen in ED, to the regional primary care centers.
• 为了不剥夺贫困病人的医疗机会,为贫困病人设立的北海医疗保健卡将促进服务合理化。
• So as not to deny access to indigent patients, the creation of the Butterworth Health Care Card for indigent patients will facilitate this rationalization of services.
输出单位将负责设计处理不同级别护理的所有设施和地点之间的接口,以确保整个系统中患者的无缝流动。
Output units will be responsible for designing the interface among all the facilities and locations dealing with different levels of care in such a way that a seamless flow of patients will be ensured throughout the system.
在开发 HDS 结构时,最初考虑了两种不同的方法。
In developing the HDS structure, two different approaches were initially considered.
功能结构的优点是更容易实施。现有系统不会对这种设计产生任何阻力。然而,功能设计将继续对现有的脱节服务中心进行次优化和强化。另一方面,模块化设计将面临更大的变革阻力,需要更大的决心才能实施。但它将使系统向 Butterworth 所追求的社区医疗保健系统转变。模块化设计将产生一个高度整合且具有成本效益的医疗系统,该系统更符合预防保健、人头税和分散的以社区为中心的医疗保健系统的要求。
The advantage of a functional structure is that it will be easier to implement. There will be no resistance to such a design from the existing system. However, a functional design will continue to suboptimize and reinforce the existing disjointed service centers. The modular design, on the other hand, will face stronger resistance to change and will require stronger resolve to implement. But it will move the system toward a community-based health-care system that Butterworth aspires to. The modular design will produce a well-integrated and cost-efficient health system that is more compatible with requirements of preventive care, capitation, and decentralized community-centered health-care systems.
北海医院现有的职能被重新分配到三个平台中。需要开发知识的职能被纳入核心知识,需要设计方法的职能被纳入护理系统,需要设施和设备的医疗服务活动被纳入 HDS。
The existing functions of Butterworth Hospital are reassigned among three platforms. Those functions requiring development of knowledge were housed in core knowledge, those requiring design methodology were housed in care systems, and health delivery activities requiring facility and equipment were housed in HDS.
社区型 HDS 将由模块化实体组成,为特定社区提供综合服务。它将以客户为中心,由区域分散、本地管理的交付模块网络组成,这些交付模块的位置尽可能靠近交付点。(消费者似乎愿意花 20 分钟的时间接受初级卫生保健,除非该地区非常偏远,在这种情况下时间限制将延长到 37 分钟。)一旦试点证明其存在,这些网络将提供一系列预防性、初级、可行性和终末类型的护理。交付模块的地理组织将具有使其结果更容易单独衡量的优势。
The community-based HDS will be made up of modular entities offering integrated services to specific communities. It will be driven by a customer focus and be made of regionally dispersed and locally managed networks of delivery modules positioned as closely to the delivery point as possible. (There seems to be a 20-minute time limit that consumers are willing to travel for primary health care unless the area is very rural, in which case the time limit expands to 37 minutes.) Once piloted experiments justify their existence, the networks will offer a whole range of preventive, primary, viability, and terminal types of care. Geographic organization of delivery modules will have the advantage of making it easier for their outcomes to be measured separately.
网络可能以虚拟实体开始,但最终将围绕一个中心物理位置进行组织。网络将灵活、流畅且易于连接。其目的是增加扩大和延伸门诊服务的机会,同时尽可能将辅助服务推向经济上可行的核心客户群。
A network may start as a virtual entity, but it will eventually be organized around a central physical place. The network will be flexible, fluid, and easy to link to. The intention will be to increase the opportunities for expanding and extending outpatient services and, at the same time, push the ancillary services as closely as possible to financially viable core masses of clients.
社区型 HDS 最初将由三个集成模块网络组成:城市大急流城社区、大急流城社区和区域社区。每个社区模块将直接向 HDS 总裁汇报。典型的网络将至少包括一家为该网络服务的中央社区医院。该系统将包括以下服务:
The community-based HDS will consist, initially, of three integrated modular networks: the Urban Grand Rapids community, the Greater Grand Rapids community, and the regional community. Each community module will report directly to the president of HDS. A typical network will include at least a central community hospital serving the network. The system will include the following services:
• 初级诊所(医生办公室)
• Primary practices (physicians' offices)
• 诊断中心
• Diagnostics centers
• 康复中心
• Rehabilitation centers
• 社区诊所
• Community clinics
• 紧急护理
• Urgent care
• 临终关怀院
• Hospices
• 家庭护理
• Home nursing
• 职业健康管理
• Occupational health management
肯特社区医院 (Kent Community Hospital) 将并入大急流城社区 (Urban Grand Rapids),伊丽莎白别墅医院 (Villa Elizabeth Hospital) 和大峡谷健康中心 (Grand Valley Health Center) 将并入大急流城社区 (Greater Grand Rapids),而联合纪念医院 (United Memorial Hospital) 一旦从专门的 HDS 转移到这一维度,将作为区域社区的核心。
Kent Community Hospital will be integrated into the Urban Grand Rapids community, Villa Elizabeth Hospital and Grand Valley Health Center will be integrated into the Greater Grand Rapids community, and United Memorial Hospital, once transferred from the specialized HDS to this dimension, will act as the core of the regional community.
HDS 可以通过与现有供应商合作,将其业务扩展到新地区,这些供应商将证明自己对特定社区具有切实可行的了解,并能进入该社区。在这种情况下,与供应商单位的关系性质而非其所有权将至关重要。
HDS can extend its presence into new regions by partnering with existing providers who will have demonstrated that they have workable knowledge of, and access to, a given community. In such cases it will be the nature of the relationship with the supplier unit rather than its ownership that will be of critical importance.
HDS 将利用临床信息技术将 HDS 和北海其他地区的所有供应商联系在一起。
HDS will take advantage of clinical information technology to link all providers in HDS and other parts of Butterworth together.
专业化的 HDS 将代表北海医院。它将是一个集中式机构,提供资本密集型、高度专业化的医疗保健服务。因此,它将专注于社区 HDS 能力和资源之外的干预和三级护理。
The specialized HDS will represent Butterworth Hospital. It will be a centralized vehicle where capital-intensive, highly specialized health-care delivery will actually take place. As such, it will concentrate on those intervention and tertiary cares that will be outside the competence and resources of the community-based HDS.
专业化的 HDS 将由两个相互依赖的部分组成:患者护理和辅助服务。这两个部门将有各自的负责人,直接向 HDS 总裁汇报。
The specialized HDS will consist of two interdependent components: patient care and ancillary services. The two units will have their own heads, who will report directly to the president of HDS.
病人护理作为专业化HDS的输出维度,将由以下医疗服务单位组成:
Patient care, as the output dimension of the specialized HDS, will consist of the following health-delivery units:
• 儿童护理(德沃斯儿童医院)
• Children's care (DeVos Children's Hospital)
• 成人重症监护
• Adult critical care
• 一般医疗服务
• General medical services
• 女性健康服务
• Women's health services
• 紧急/紧急护理
• Emergency/urgent care
• 专业门诊护理
• Specialized outpatient care
辅助服务是专业化 HDS 的投入维度,将为患者护理部门以及社区 HDS 部门提供临床/技术支持服务。这些共享服务必须定期进行流程重新设计,以保持自我维持和具有竞争力的成本效益。辅助服务将由以下部门组成:
Ancillary services, as the input dimension of the specialized HDS, will provide clinical/technical support services to both patient care units as well as the units of the community-based HDS. These shared services will have to undergo periodic process redesign to remain self-sustained and competitively cost-effective. Ancillary services will consist of the following units:
• 手术室
• Operating room
• 康复中心
• Rehabilitation center
• 实验室
• Laboratory
• 心脏病学实验室
• Cardiology laboratory
• 放射学
• Radiology
• 呼吸治疗
• Respiratory therapy
• 制药
• Pharmaceutical
• 航空医学
• Aeromed
患者关系部门将发挥宣传职能,代表患者利益参与医疗体系。该部门将确保患者在医疗体系中拥有发言权,并得到公平对待。该部门将充当监察员,帮助解决投诉和赔偿要求。这将有助于防止问题演变成重大诉讼。宣传部门还将负责为有需要的患者提供社会和财务咨询服务。
Patient relations will perform an advocacy function by representing the interests of the patients to the system. It will make sure that patients have a voice in the system and are fairly treated. The unit will act as an ombudsman to help settle grievances and compensatory claims. This will help prevent problems from growing into major litigation. Advocacy will also be responsible for providing social and financial counseling services to the patients who will need them.
患者关系部还将代表 HDS 向其所在环境展示其服务。它将与企业市场准入平台建立业务联系,以便收集有关其所在环境对 HDS 的看法的反馈。这将确保 Butterworth 保持密切社区联系的政策得到执行。
Patient relations will also represent HDS to its environment. It will develop operational contacts with the corporate market access platform to receive feedback about the way HDS is perceived by its environment. This will ensure that Butterworth's policy of preserving a close community touch is enforced.
为了有效维护患者的利益,确保他们有可靠的最后手段来解决他们的不满,HDS 的所有部门都必须认真对待这一方面。要实现这一以市场/消费者为导向的政策,就需要由一位在整个组织中享有尊重和威望并能直接与 HDS 总裁沟通的经理来代表和指导患者关系。
To effectively safeguard the interests of the patients and make sure they enjoy a dependable last resort to settle their grievances, it will be important that this dimension be taken seriously by all units of HDS. The realization of this market/consumer-oriented policy will require that patient relations are represented and directed by a manager who commands organization-wide respect and prestige and has direct access to the HDS president.
共享服务作为投入维度,将为 HDS 其他部门的活动提供服务和支持。共享服务与用户部门之间的关系将是供应商与客户的关系。
As an input dimension, shared services will serve and support the activities of the other units of HDS. The relationship between shared services and the user units will be that of supplier–customer.
共享服务将由以下五个部分组成。这些服务本来可以在公司层面分配给共享服务平台。但是,由于它们将主要由 HDS 部门使用,因此决定保留它们,以帮助最大限度地减少复杂性和不必要的交互,否则这些交互是不可避免的。
Shared services will consist of the following five components. These services could have been assigned to the shared services platform at the corporate level. However, since they will be utilized mainly by HDS units, it was decided that their retention here will help minimize complexity and unnecessary interactions that would otherwise be unavoidable.
接待和设施管理将包括所有有助于 HDS 接待方面的客户服务。其理念是确保患者得到像酒店客人一样的待遇,患者的满意度将得到最高优先和关注。为了确保医疗保健服务采用全面的接待方式,接待和设施管理将负责创建接待环境所需的所有活动。这些活动包括设施规划、建设、管理和维护、陪同和接待以及通信。
Hospitality and facility management will include all those guest services that will contribute to the hospitality aspect of an HDS. The idea is to make sure that the patient is treated like a guest at a hotel where his/her satisfaction receives the utmost priority and attention. To ensure a total hospitality approach to health-care delivery, hospitality and facility management will be in charge of all activities that will be necessary in creating a hospitable environment. These will include facility planning, construction, management and maintenance, escort and hospitality, and communications.
临床服务将作为一个集中管理的调度和部署系统,与核心知识相结合。临床服务将包括感染控制、食品和营养、志愿者服务、实验室、家庭护理服务、信息技术和医疗服务记录。
Clinical services will function as a centrally managed scheduling and deployment system that interfaces with core knowledge. Clinical services will include infection control, food and nutrition, volunteer services, laboratory, family care services, information technology, and medical services records.
业务服务功能将包括管理咨询、材料管理、工厂运营、采购、一般金融服务(工资和报销、患者金融服务)、医疗事故索赔、风险管理、过程控制、环境安全以及家庭健康和临终关怀管理。
The business services function will include management consulting, materials management, plant operations, procurement, general financial services (payroll and reimbursements, patient financial services), malpractice claims, risk management, process control, environmental safety, and home health and hospice administration.
这一维度的家庭护理管理仅代表在整个社区健康模块中广泛分布的家庭护理管理。它将利用如此庞大的核心群体所带来的规模经济。此外,HDS 可能与其他医院合作,为他们管理这些服务。因此,家庭护理管理将包括一般管理、监督、调度、标准化和认证。
Home care management at this dimension will only represent the management of home care that will actually take place on a widely dispersed basis throughout the community health modules. It will take advantage of the large economies of scale associated with such a large core mass. Moreover, HDS may partner with other hospitals to manage these services for them. Home care management will therefore consist of general management, oversight, scheduling, standardization, and accreditation.
与家庭护理管理一样,职业护理管理仅代表在 HDS 地理区域内进行的职业护理管理。该服务将提供给有意将其医疗保健需求以及员工的其他健康相关问题(如工伤赔偿)外包给 HDS 的企业客户。如此大量分散的服务所带来的规模经济需要集中管理和监督。
Like home care management, occupational care management will represent only the management of occupational care that will take place throughout the HDS's geographical regions. The service will be provided to corporate customers interested in outsourcing to HDS their health-care needs, as well as other health-related issues of their employees, such as workers' compensation. The economies of scale associated with such a potentially large volume of widely dispersed services warrant centralized management and oversight.
核心知识是架构输入维度的两个组成部分之一。核心知识负责确保提供适当的服务范围和数量,以满足其所在地区全方位的医疗服务需求。
Core knowledge is one of the two components of the input dimension of the architecture. Core knowledge is responsible for ensuring the availability of the appropriate service scope and number of providers to meet the whole spectrum of health-related care in its regions.
核心知识将成为该系统的专业知识中心。它承载并开发系统的提供商资源,并帮助护理系统在整个系统中传播最先进的知识。它将代表 Butterworth 在医疗实践中的核心竞争力。
Core knowledge will be the system's center of expertise. It hosts and develops the provider resource of the system and helps the care system disseminate the state-of-the-art knowledge throughout the system. It will represent Butterworth's core competencies in medical practice.
核心知识将包括以下医疗保健提供者:
Core knowledge will consist of the following health-care providers:
• 医务人员(主要由独立承包商医生组成)
• Medical staff (primarily consisting of physicians as independent contractors)
• 高级实践提供者
• Advanced practice providers
• 护士
• Nurses
• 技术卫生工作者和其他专业人员/临床医生
• Technical health workers and other professionals/clinicians
• 其他专业人员/技术人员
• Other professionals/technicians
核心知识网络的设计将适应广泛的关系。它将定义和开发系统中各种类型和程度的成员结构以及成员互动所需的操作程序。
The core knowledge network will be designed to accommodate a broad range of relationships. It will define and develop the structure for various types and degrees of membership in the system and the necessary operating procedures for members to interact.
如果没有协作的基础设施,稀缺的供应商资源就会被浪费。因此,支持组织应该足够灵活,以加强供应商资源的维护和利用。理想情况下,这要求供应商系统的每个成员都是高水平的学习者/教育者、从业者和系统开发的领导者。缺少任何一个关键且相互关联的方面都会损害其他方面,并最终损害 Butterworth 作为一个功能齐全的系统的能力。保持这种平衡的准备状态将确保系统对新出现的问题和机会的响应的全面性和灵活性,同时鼓励专业追求有目的的网络和以结果为导向的协作计划。
Without an infrastructure for collaborative effort, the scarce provider resource will tend to be defused and wasted. The supportive organization should therefore be flexible enough to enhance maintenance and utilization of provider resources. This would ideally require each member of the provider system to be a high-level learner/educator, practitioner, and a leader of systems development. The absence of any one of these critical and interrelated aspects will undermine the others and eventually compromise the capacity of Butterworth to perform as a fully functioning system. Sustaining such a balanced state of readiness will ensure the comprehensiveness and the flexibility of the system's response to emerging problems and opportunities and at the same time encourage professional pursuits of purposeful networking and results-oriented collaborative initiatives.
为了能够持续获得代表最先进医疗保健技术的丰富专业资源,核心知识的组织环境将始终欢迎最大程度的灵活性以进行创新合作,并对来自系统内部和外部的现有和新兴相关投入保持开放。
To enjoy constant access to a rich resource of expertise representing state-of-the-art health care, the organizational context of core knowledge will constantly welcome maximum flexibility for innovative collaboration and will remain open to existing and emerging inputs of relevance both from within and outside the system.
因此,核心知识体系的成员资格将以多种形式参与,参与程度各异。成员资格类型包括全职和兼职,包括以下内容:
Membership in the core knowledge system will therefore take a wide variety of forms functioning at multiple levels of involvement. The types of membership will be both full- and part-time and will include the following:
• 独立执业律师(聘用制)
• Independent practitioners (retainer-based)
• 合伙人(基于推荐)
• Associates (referral-based)
• 合作伙伴
• Partners
• 非关联方
• Nonaffiliates
为了确保对所需能力的外部投入保持开放,核心知识系统将以联盟的形式运作。联盟的成员可以是个人,也可以是提供者团体。核心知识联盟成员的身份可以采取以下形式:
To assure openness to external inputs of needed competence, the core knowledge system will operate as a confederation. Members of the confederation can be individuals as well as groups of providers. The status of the members of the core knowledge confederation may take the following form:
• 综合:Butterworth Health System 的全职成员
• Integrated: full-time members of Butterworth Health System
• 兼职:贡献者有限且预先定义的个人
• Part-time: individuals with limited and predefined contributors
• 战略联盟:在商定的框架内运作的组织合作伙伴
• Strategic alliance: organization-based partners operating within an agreed upon framework
核心知识成员可选择在与 Butterworth Health System 合作时承担或放弃不同程度的自主权。这种自愿联盟的性质和条款定义了各方将选择竞争、协作或合作的领域。因此,核心知识成员和 Butterworth 是相互依赖的各方;他们对彼此的承诺和自由是相互的。
Core knowledge members may choose to assume or relinquish different degrees of autonomy in working with Butterworth Health System. The nature and terms of this voluntary association define the areas in which the parties will choose to compete, collaborate, or cooperate. Thus, core knowledge members and Butterworth are codependent parties; their commitment to, and freedom from, each other is mutually reciprocal.
在 Butterworth 医疗系统和核心知识维度之间建立相互信任将是该系统最终成功的基石。它们应该代表竞争的统一战线。这种基于忠诚度的成功的一个先决条件是营造一个能够尽量减少和化解冲突(无论是真实的还是想象的)的环境。这样的环境需要做到以下几点:
Creation of mutual trust between the Butterworth Health System and the core knowledge dimension will be the keystone to the ultimate success of the system. They should represent a united front to competition. A prerequisite to this loyalty-based success will be an environment that minimizes and dissolves conflict, whether real or perceived. Such an environment will require the following:
• 所有核心知识成员,无论其地位如何,在小组管理中都拥有平等的发言权。
• All the members of core knowledge, regardless of their status, will have an equal voice within their panel, in the management of the group.
• 所有核心知识成员,无论其地位如何,都将平等地获得共享服务,例如计费,这些服务将以边际成本为基础提供给他们。
• All the members of core knowledge, regardless of their status, will have equal access to the shared services, such as billing, which will be provided to them on a marginal cost basis.
• 明确的内部冲突解决系统将在潜在冲突分化之前防止、最小化和化解它们。
• An explicit internal system of conflict resolution will prevent, minimize, and dissolve potential conflicts before they are polarized.
核心知识维度的架构将是卫生系统的克隆。因此,它具有相同的投入、产出和市场维度。产出维度定义了核心知识的综合、兼职和战略合作伙伴对护理系统和医疗服务模块的贡献类型。市场维度定义了部署核心知识服务的访问机制。输入维度代表那些特定于核心知识的支持服务,根据定义,这些支持服务不能由系统的共享服务提供。输入维度将以边际成本为基础向其用户提供服务。
The architecture of the core knowledge dimension will be a clone of the health system. It therefore has the same input, output, and market dimensions. The output dimension defines the types of contributions of the integrated, part-time, and strategic partners of core knowledge to the care system and health delivery modules. The market dimension defines the access mechanism by which core knowledge services are deployed. The input dimension represents those support services that are core-knowledge-specific and cannot, by definition, be provided by the system's shared services. The input dimension will provide its services on a marginal cost basis to its users.
为了营造一种持续创新和改善医疗保健服务的有效氛围,专业贡献者必须发展另一个重要维度:组织建设的能力和意愿。传统上,设计和管理 HDS 情境环境的补充责任已被分离并转移到与实际提供临床服务无关的管理人员身上。由于这种分离,大量的精力被浪费在解决医疗保健服务结构、功能和流程中不必要的不兼容性上。
To bring about a productive climate for continuous innovation and improvement of health-care delivery, the professional contributors will have to develop an additional vital dimension: the ability and desire for organization building. Traditionally, the complementary responsibility for designing and managing the contextual environment of HDS has been uncoupled and transferred to administrators who are removed from the actual provision of clinical services. Because of this separation, substantial amounts of energy have been wasted in settling the unnecessary incompatibilities in the structure, function, and process of health-care delivery.
消除结构性冲突的瘫痪效应的唯一方法是将缺失的护理管理领导力添加到临床提供者的医疗相关专业知识中。具备领导能力和设计能力的医疗保健专业人员可以适当地影响和/或帮助设计环境和交付模式之间必要的接口。双重能力不仅可以消除官僚主义的条块分割,还可以通过挖掘尝试其他合作方式和互补关系的潜力来提高护理服务的有效性。
The only way to dissolve the paralyzing effects of the structural conflict is to add the missing dimension of care management leadership to the health-related expertise of the clinical providers. Equipped with leadership and design capability, health-care professionals can properly influence and/or help design the necessary interface between the context and the mode of delivery. The dual capacity would not only remove bureaucratic compartmentalization, but would enhance the effectiveness of care services by tapping the potentials for experimenting with alternative ways of teaming and complementary relations.
核心知识将负责知识的产生和分配、专业知识的部署以及领导能力的发挥。以下列表描述了这三个功能:
Core knowledge will be responsible for the generation and distribution of the knowledge, deployment of expertise, and exercise of leadership. These three functions are described in the following list:
部分提供者资源可能会用于正在进行的学术活动,这些活动要么是医学院不可或缺的一部分,要么是作为此类教师活动的补充活动。
A portion of the provider resource may be engaged in ongoing academic pursuits that are either an integral part of medical schools or activities complementing such faculty engagements.
医疗服务提供者系统的成员还可以参与教育那些与健康活动有关联的人。受教育者包括同行、学生、实习生、消费者和广大公众。
Members of the provider system may also engage in educating those who have a stake in health-related activities. Those who will be taught will include peers, students, interns, consumers, and the public at large.
然而,核心知识维度将负责创建接口并发展与其他研究和学习来源的积极联系,例如大学、研究机构、医学和准医学教育中心以及技术开发组织。
The core knowledge dimension, however, will be responsible for creating interfaces and developing active associations with other sources of research and learning, such as universities, research institutions, medical and paramedical education centers, and technological development organizations.
提供者系统的成员在护理系统设定的框架和协议内运作,通过参与在护理系统或医疗服务模块内创建和终止的不同长期或短期项目/计划来贡献他们的知识和专业技能。实践将在住院护理(医院)、诊所、实验室、当地卫生中心、健康中心、家庭和长期护理机构中进行。核心知识成员可以选择永久或临时地在不同的项目和计划中工作,而不会失去他们在核心知识组中的正式成员资格以及随之而来的特权。每个成员可以同时在多个项目/计划中工作。
Members of the provider system, operating within the framework and protocols set by the care system, will contribute their knowledge and expertise by participating in different long- or short-term projects/programs that are created and terminated within the care system or the health delivery modules. The practice will take place in inpatient care (hospitals), clinics, labs, local health centers, wellness centers, homes, and long-term-care institutions. Members of core knowledge can choose to function on a permanent or temporary basis on different programs and projects without losing their full-fledged membership, and the privileges that come with it, in the core knowledge group. Each member can work in multiple programs/projects at the same time.
这种设计所开发的多维架构的力量在于,它有意避免了将提供商和程序的命运不可分割地联系在一起的危险。一旦创建,程序和项目就会成为组织格局的永久特征。如果任其发展,它们就会发展出自己的生命和思想。然而,当人员被永久分配给它们时,它们的命运就已注定。问题的根源在于将产品与提供商联系起来,就像学术和工业环境中常用的分部结构一样,其中程序或产品一旦启动就永远不会停止。只要程序或项目的终止威胁到一个人的工作以及与之相关的所有来之不易的优势,那么工作持有者,无论是经理还是普通工人,都会尽最大努力不惜一切代价延长项目的寿命,这是很自然的。这解释了看似不合理的抵抗和过时的遗留物在企业生活中以某种方式幸存下来的内在合理性。
The power of multidimensional architecture, as developed in this design, is that it intentionally avoids the danger of tying the fate of the providers and the programs inseparably together. Once created, there is a tendency for the programs and projects to become a permanent feature of the organizational landscape. Left to their own devices, they develop a life and a mind of their own. Their fate is sealed, however, when their personnel are permanently assigned to them. The seed of the problem is in identifying the product with the provider, as is done in a divisional structure commonly used in academic and industrial settings wherein a program or product, once initiated, can never be discontinued. As long as the termination of a program or project threatens one's job and all the hard-won advantages associated with it, it is only natural that the job holder, whether a manager or a simple worker, does his/her utmost to lengthen the life of the project at all costs. This explains the inner rationality of the seemingly irrational resistance and obsolete relics that somehow manage to survive in corporate life.
解决这一问题需要将项目和计划的生命周期与分配给它们的人员分离开来。在系统架构中拥有核心知识维度的优势之一是,它将作为 Butterworth 专业资源的永久基地。根据定义,任何其他关系和任务都将被视为偶然和临时的,无论预计持续多长时间。核心知识基地的永久性要求不断重新评估和更新,而项目和计划的无常性允许不断创新和适应,从而消除了导致官僚主义膨胀和根深蒂固的变革阻力的顽固条件。
Dissolving the problem will require that the life of the programs and projects be uncoupled from the people who are assigned to them. One of the advantages of having a core knowledge dimension in the systems architecture is that it will serve as the permanent home base for the professional resources of Butterworth. Any other relationship and assignment will, by definition, be considered as contingent and temporary no matter how long it is expected to last. The permanence of the core knowledge home base, requiring continuous reassessment and renewal, and the impermanence of programs and projects, allowing continuous innovation and adaptation, remove the obstinate conditions that lead to inflated bureaucracies and entrenched resistance to change.
因此,归根结底,优秀的医疗服务提供者既是优秀的学习者/教育者,又是优秀的从业者,还是优秀的领导者。Butterworth 及其医疗服务提供者的成功,以及任何医疗体系的成功,最终将取决于医疗服务提供者群体的成员是否除了成为称职的从业者之外,还实现了这种多功能性。
In the final analysis, a good provider, therefore, is a good learner/educator, a good practitioner, and a good leader. The success of Butterworth and its providers, and by the same token any health-care system, will ultimately depend on whether the members of the provider community have achieved this multifunctionality in addition to being competent practitioners.
在医疗服务提供者社区中建立多功能性将把障碍转化为机遇,用系统取代集合。这样,个体医疗服务提供者将成为高度相互依赖的系统的有目的的成员,并产生影响。他们将有效地利用其多种能力进行向上管理,并影响医疗系统的其他部分和利益相关者,尽管他们无法直接控制这些部分和利益相关者,但他们的专业努力的成功将取决于他们。
Building multifunctionality into the provider community will convert obstruction into opportunities and replace aggregates with systems. Thus individual providers will become purposeful members of a highly interdependent system that will make a difference. They will effectively use their multiple competencies in managing upward and influencing other parts of and stakeholders in the health-care system over whom they do not have direct control but on whom the success of their professional effort will depend.
多功能性还将使医疗服务提供者能够设计和管理其实践,提供价格合理、用户友好的软件包和程序,这些软件包和程序既方便消费者使用,又与消费者相关。他们将与护理系统合作,开发和不断改进管理 HDS 不同方面所需的通用模型、协议和程序。
The multifunctionality will also give providers the capability and the possibility of designing and managing their practice in terms of affordable and user-friendly packages and programs that are both accessible and relevant to the consumers. They will cooperate with the care system in the development and continuous improvement of generic models, protocols, and procedures needed to manage the different aspects of HDS.
核心知识小组负责医学研究和教育,但它将复制三维方案,创建自己的特殊共享服务。在此背景下的共享服务将包括医生办公室管理以及供应商招聘和认证。
While the core knowledge group is responsible for medical research and education, it will replicate the three-dimensional scheme to create its own special shared services. Shared services in this context will include physician's office management and provider recruiting and credentialing.
共享服务是架构输入维度的另一个组成部分。它将是整个系统正常运行所需的特定服务的提供者。为了确保其正常运行,共享服务的设计将密切关注集中化和分散化、服务与控制分离以及客户导向等问题。
Shared services is the other component of the input dimension of the architecture. It will be the provider of specific services required for the proper functioning of the system as a whole. To ensure its proper functioning, shared services will be designed with close attention to the issues surrounding centralization and decentralization, separation of service from control, and customer orientation.
除非下列一种或所有情况极力反对某项特定服务的分散化,否则将避免集中化。
Centralization will be avoided unless one or all of the following situations weigh overwhelmingly against decentralization of a particular service.
系统中将要集中的方面是 Butterworth 系统的全部或部分共同的方面,如果不对系统的正常运作造成严重损害,就不能将其分散。在测量系统和通信等领域,共同语言和协调至关重要,统一性将成为集中化的标准。
The aspects of the system that will be centralized are those that are common to all or some of the parts of Butterworth and cannot be left decentralized without rendering serious damage to the proper functioning of the system. In areas such as measurement systems and communications, where common language and coordination are of major importance, uniformity will serve as the criterion for centralization.
某些技术由于其性质而被视为不可分割,因此需要整体设计,但这些技术可以集中化。例如,综合信息系统的有效性在于其整体性、一致性、实时访问和适当的联网,以便根据需要将信息传输给不同的用户。开发这样的系统需要系统内所有参与者之间的合作与协调。
Certain technologies, which, because of their nature, are deemed indivisible and therefore require a holistic design, can be centralized. For example, the effectiveness of a comprehensive information system is in its holism, consistency, real-time access, and proper networking to transfer information as needed to different users. Development of such a system requires cooperation and coordination among all the actors in the system.
虽然规模经济通常被认为是创建共享服务的一个重要因素,但在将服务转移到共享服务之前,应该明确说明每个功能的集中化和分散化之间的权衡,以证明其好处远远超过坏处。在这种情况下,预计一项服务一旦集中化,将为整个系统带来大量节省,或帮助一些原本无法独自负担得起该服务的单位。
Although economy of scale is generally considered an important factor in the creation of shared services, the trade-offs between centralization and decentralization of each function should be made explicit to prove that the benefits significantly outweigh the disadvantages before it is moved to shared services. In this case, it is expected that a service, once centralized, will either generate significant savings for the system as a whole or help some of the units that otherwise would not be able to afford the service on their own.
管理层可能认为,某些特定活动对于未来的成功至关重要,因此决定集中、发展和专业化这些活动。管理层有权确定哪些服务应属于此类别,是可选的还是强制性的。如果只涉及一个单位/客户,最好将相关服务分散化。
Management may feel that a certain level of specific activities will be critical for future success and therefore decide to centralize, develop, and specialize them. It is management's prerogative to identify the services that should fall under this category either as optional or mandatory. Where only one unit/customer is involved, it is best to decentralize the relevant service.
无论共享服务的理由是什么,该部门都必须成为首选的先进且具有成本效益的提供商。
Whatever the justification of the services shared, the unit will have to become the state-of-the-art and cost-effective provider of choice.
控制功能与服务功能的结合是共享服务运作的最大障碍。它既破坏了服务的有效性,也破坏了控制的合法性。为了保护自己免受服务提供商的霸权和依赖控制驱动服务的明显风险的影响,运营单位诉诸于重复原本可以轻松共享和有效利用的支持服务。猖獗和过度的服务重复导致瘫痪的官僚主义和不必要的冗余,这是运营单位对发展这种双重个性的服务功能的自然反应。另一方面,以服务功能为借口掩盖合法和必要的控制功能,将控制的性质从一种学习机制转变为一种防御和道歉行为。
The combination of a control function with a service function is the most obstructive element to the functioning of shared services. It undermines both the effectiveness of the services and the legitimacy of the controls. To protect themselves against the creeping hegemony of service providers and the obvious risks involved in relying on control-driven services, the operating units resort to duplicating the support services that could otherwise be easily shared and effectively utilized. Rampant and excessive duplications of services leading to paralyzing bureaucracy and unnecessary redundancy are symptomatic of the natural reaction of operating units to service functions developing such dual personalities. On the other hand, disguising a legitimate and necessary control function under the pretext of a service function transforms the nature of control from a learning mechanism to a defensive and apologetic act.
应特别注意确保共享服务的任何功能都不会像通常的趋势那样发生性质变化并承担控制属性。以需要一致性和统一性为借口,人们自然倾向于让服务提供商执行必要的监控和审计功能。事实证明,这是错误的。提供商不可避免地陷入越来越想要承担控制功能的滑坡。这显然会吓跑那些没有想到会以服务器为幌子找到新老板的用户。
Extra care should be taken to make sure that none of the functions of the shared services, as is the usual tendency, undergo a character change and assume control properties. Under the pretext of a need for consistency and uniformity, there is a natural tendency to let the service provider perform the necessary monitoring and auditing function. This has always proved to be misguided. The providers cannot help falling into the slippery slope of wanting, increasingly, to assume a control function. This obviously would scare away the users who did not expect to find a new boss in the guise of a server.
共享服务将根据规划、学习和指导 (PLG) 系统设定的标准和协议为客户提供所需的服务(例如信息、福利、工资和账单),而 PLG 系统将负责制定管理这些服务的政策和标准,以及开展必要的监控和执行功能,以确保正确实施这些政策。
While shared services will provide the customers with requested services (such as information, benefits, payroll, and billing) in accordance with the criteria and protocols set by the Planning, Learning, and Guidance (PLG) System, the PLG System will be in charge of setting the policies and the criteria governing these services, as well as conducting the necessary monitoring and enforcing functions to ensure proper implementation of those policies.
虽然上级与下级的关系传统上被视为行使组织权力的唯一基石,但供应商与客户的关系为组织方程式引入了新的影响力来源。供应商与客户的关系只出现在内部市场环境中,无助的接受者成为真正的客户。有了购买力,客户就成为有权力的参与者,能够影响供应商并与供应商互动,这样双方就可以共同确定所提供服务的类型、成本、时间和质量。
While superior–subordinate relationships have traditionally been taken as the only building block for the exercise of organizational authority, the supplier–customer relationship introduces a new source of influence into the organizational equation. With the supplier–customer relationship, which emerges only in an internal market environment, the helpless recipient becomes a real customer. Armed with purchasing power, the customer becomes an empowered actor with the ability to influence and interact with his/her supplier in such a way that both parties together can now define the type, cost, time, and quality of the services rendered.
建立内部市场机制,从而建立供应商-客户关系,取决于将共享服务转变为绩效中心。与管理中心不同,绩效中心不会从上层获得固定预算。它们拥有流动资金和可变的运营预算。在这种模式下,费用与服务水平产生的收入以及交换中获得的收入成正比。
Creation of an internal market mechanism, and thus a supplier–customer relationship, is contingent upon transforming the shared services into a performance center. Performance centers, unlike overhead centers, do not receive a fixed budget allocated from the top. They have working capital with a variable operating budget. In this model, expenses are proportional to the income generated by the level of services rendered and revenues received in their exchange.
这两对横向和纵向关系是互补的,相互协同。上级与下级定义了正式的权力,处理雇用、解雇和晋升问题,而供应商与客户关系则创造了一种试图使需求合理化的新的影响力来源。
These two pairs of horizontal and vertical relationships are complementary, synergizing one another. Whereas superior–subordinate defines the formal authority, dealing with hiring, firing, and promotion, a supplier– customer relationship creates a new source of influence that tries to rationalize demand.
在没有内部市场环境的情况下,就没有内在机制来合理化需求。一个有第三方付款人的、令人满意的服务提供商会创造并助长无法满足的需求。另一方面,一个不令人满意的服务提供商会引发潜在客户大量重复提供相同的服务。结果将是管理费用激增,而运营本质上是成本加成。这种趋势是不合理的,纠正干预措施充其量也只是临时性的、无效的。
In the absence of an internal market environment, there will be no built-in mechanism to rationalize demand. An agreeable service provider with a third-party payer creates and fuels an insatiable demand. A disagreeable service provider, on the other hand, would trigger a proliferation of duplications of the same services by the potential customers. The result would be an explosion of overhead expenses in the context of an essentially cost plus operation. The trend would be irrational and the corrective interventions would prove ad hoc and ineffective, at best.
根据这些标准和考虑,共享服务的组成如下。
On the basis of these criteria and considerations, the composition of shared services is as follows.
• 数据管理(临床数据、财务数据和人力资源数据)
• Data management (clinical data, financial data, and human resource data)
• 信息技术
• Information technology
• 系统分析
• Systems analysis
实施拟议的设计将需要将一整套新的管理能力制度化,例如危机管理、冲突解决以及决策系统、学习系统、预警系统、测量系统和质量管理。管理学院的服务将与外部相关专业中心对接,并在整个 Butterworth 卫生系统(尤其是行政办公室和核心知识小组)传播所需的能力。
Implementation of the proposed design will require institutionalization of a whole new set of management capabilities, such as crisis management, conflict resolution, and management of the decision system, learning system, early warning system, measurement system, and quality. The services of the Management Institute will interface with external centers of relevant expertise and disseminate the required competencies throughout the Butterworth Health System, especially the executive office and core knowledge groups.
• 工资单
• Payroll
• 福利管理
• Benefit administration
• 薪酬管理
• Compensation management
• 招聘(仅实施)
• Recruitment (implementation only)
• 预算和现金流管理
• Budget and cash flow management
• 会计
• Accounting
• 计费
• Billing
• 收藏品
• Collections
• 信息发布
• Release of information
• 记录的一致性标准
• Consistency standards for records
• 公共关系
• Public relations
• 媒体界面
• Media interface
• 音频/视频设备及管理
• Audio/visual equipment and management
• 企业品牌
• Corporate branding
• 广告
• Advertising
• 采购
• Purchasing
医疗保健服务流程的完整性是决定该系统最终成败的关键。这就要求医疗保健知识的生成和传播、医疗保健产品的设计和医疗保健实践这三项活动在受到同等重视的同时,必须整合起来。这三项活动非常重要,因此,拟议的系统架构将每一项活动分配给不同的平台,并由不同的经理负责。
The integrity of the process of health-care delivery, more than anything else, will be the property on which the system will ultimately stand or fall. This will require that the three activities of generation and dissemination of health-care knowledge, design of health-care products, and practice of health care, while receiving equal attention, be integrated. The importance of the three activities is such that the proposed systems architecture assigned each one of these activities to a different platform under a separate manager.
另一方面,这三项活动相互关联如此紧密,因此它们的整合将成为首要关注点。这似乎与上述明确将这三项活动分配给三个独立平台的说法相矛盾。因此,问题在于应该如何整合这三个平台。这让我们回到架构的核心思想。这种设计的一个关键假设是,确保系统整合的唯一方法是让知识工作者成为整合者。
On the other hand, these three activities are so interrelated that their integration will be a prime concern. This seems contradictory to the above statement that explicitly assigns the three activities to three separate platforms. The question, therefore, is how the integration of the three platforms is supposed to happen. This brings us back to the core idea of the architecture. A key assumption of this design is that the only way to ensure the integration of the system would be for the knowledge worker to become the integrator.
这意味着,学习、设计和实践医疗保健这三项活动的整合将通过设计师、教育者和实践者合二为一而实现。为了保持护理过程的完整性,每位专业贡献者,无论是医生、护士还是技术人员,都将参与三个截然不同但相互关联的角色,这些角色将相互依存、相互促进。在核心知识方面,同一个提供者将通过以学习者/研究人员/教育者的身份参与学习单元,帮助生成和传播知识。在护理系统中,同一个提供者将通过以设计师/评估者的身份参与设计单元,帮助将他/她的知识操作化。在 HDS 中,同一个提供者将通过以实施者/实践者的身份参与实践单元,帮助利用新知识。
This means that the integration of the three activities of learning, designing, and practicing health care will be realized by the fact that the designer, the educator, and the practitioner would be one and the same. To preserve the wholeness of the process of providing care, each professional contributor, whether a doctor, nurse, or technician, will be engaged in the three distinct and yet interrelated roles that will feed on and contribute to each other's strength. When in core knowledge, the same provider will help generate and disseminate knowledge by participating in learning cells as a learner/researcher/educator. When in care systems, the same provider will help operationalize his/her knowledge by participating in design cells as a designer/evaluator. When in HDS, the same provider will help utilize new knowledge by participating in practice cells as an implementer/practitioner.
参与并承担这三个互补且相互加强的角色中的每一个角色,将为提供商做好准备、授权和激励,使其能够成功地处理其他两个角色。因此,设计者/评估者同时也是特定产品和服务的实践者,将始终是最有资格并准备好教授这些产品和服务的人;学习者/研究人员/教育者同时也是特定产品和服务的实践者,将始终是最有资格并准备好设计这些产品和服务的人;最后,设计者/评估者同时也是特定产品和服务的学习者/研究人员/教育者,将始终是最有资格并准备好管理这些产品和服务的人。
Engagement and ownership of each one of the three complementary and mutually reinforcing roles will prepare, empower, and motivate the provider to succeed in dealing with the other two. Thus a designer/evaluator and at the same time the practitioner of particular products and services will always be most qualified and ready to teach them; a learner/researcher/educator and at the same time the practitioner of particular products and services will always be most qualified and ready to design them; and, finally, a designer/evaluator and at the same time the learner/researcher/educator of particular products and services will always be most qualified and ready to administer them.
在这三种情况下,整合主体都是对问题有第一手经验的行动者。因此,系统将具有自我纠正、自我教育和自我整合的能力。这种设计将允许专业人员向上管理,并创建一种“低层次”方法,与多元化和专业驱动型组织的特性密切相关。因此,系统的成功将取决于专业人员根据具体情况交替扮演学习者、教育者、设计者和实践者等所有不同角色的能力和意愿。虽然这似乎违背了医疗保健的隐含假设,但它与人性完全兼容。在现实生活中,个人扮演着许多不同的角色。例如,一个人可以很自然地、几乎同时地在不同情况下毫不费力地扮演父母、专业人士、朋友、老板和下属的角色。事实上,这恰好是人类区别于其他物种的特征之一,构成了社会存在的基石。
In all three contexts, the integrative agent is the doer who has first-hand experience with the problems. Thus the system will become self-correcting, self-educating, and self-integrating. The design will allow the professionals to manage upward and create a “low-archical” approach intimately suited to the idiosyncrasies of a multi-minded and professionally driven organization. Thus, the success of the system will depend on the ability and willingness of the professionals in acting out, depending on the context, all the different roles of learner, educator, designer, and practitioner interchangeably. Although this seems to be against the implicit assumptions of health care, it is perfectly compatible with human nature. In real life, individuals perform many different roles. For example, one plays, quite naturally and almost simultaneously, the roles of parent, professional, friend, boss, and subordinate in different contexts without difficulty. As a matter of fact, this happens to be one of the characteristics that distinguishes humans from other species and constitutes the keystone of social existence.
因此,每位专业人员的综合绩效概况将反映其作为教育者、设计师和从业者的三个方面。该概况将根据个人在价值链的不同背景下所扮演角色的质量和多样性,显示其对组织的价值。能力越高,需求越大;需求越大,价值越高。然而,这里需要强调一点:设计不会鼓励,但肯定会尊重那些出于某种原因可能选择不担任多重角色的专业人员的个人偏好。
The composite performance profile of each professional will therefore reflect the three aspects of his/her role as an educator, a designer, and a practitioner. The profile will show the value of the individual to the organization based on the quality and diversity of the roles he/she will be called upon to play in the different contexts of the value chain. The higher the competence, the greater the demand; the greater the demand, the higher the value. One point, however, needs to be underscored here: the design will not encourage, but it will certainly respect, the personal preference of those professionals who, for whatever reasons, might elect not to engage in multiple roles.
在核心知识、护理系统和交付系统三者中,核心知识将成为系统中医生、护士、技术人员和其他健康专业人员的基地。这将使知识工作者能够在所有三个平台上接受不同角色和不同持续时间。在核心知识方面,提供者本身将帮助履行人力资产的管理职能。他们将相互学习和教导,以确保巴特沃斯的医疗保健能力始终代表着医疗保健行业的前沿。他们将不断监测医疗保健科学和实践的方向和状态。他们将确保系统的整个专业能力处于随时准备状态,以快速、有效和充分地响应市场不断变化和增长的需求。
In the trio of core knowledge, care system, and delivery system, core knowledge will serve as the home base for the system's physicians, nurses, technicians, and other health-based professionals. This will make it possible for the knowledge worker to accept different roles with different durations in all three platforms. When at core knowledge, it will be the providers themselves who will help perform the stewardship function of the human assets. They will be engaged in learning from and teaching each other to make sure that the health-care competency of Butterworth represents the cutting edge of the health-care profession at all times. They will constantly monitor the direction and state of the science and practice of health care. They will make sure that the entire professional competence of the system is in a state of readiness to respond rapidly, effectively, and adequately to the changing and growing requirements of the market.
虽然护理系统将负责设计流程和包装医疗保健产品和服务,以及监控和确保其部署的质量,但 HDS 才是医疗保健实际发生的地方。HDS 将拥有资本密集型和与健康相关的实物资产,并将负责有效利用它们来提供护理服务。
While care systems will be responsible for designing the process and packaging health-care products and services, as well as monitoring and ensuring the quality of their deployment, HDS will be where health care will actually happen. HDS will own the capital-intensive and health-related physical assets and will be responsible for their effective utilization in providing the care deliverables.
三维性不应与传统的分工和三老板系统概念相混淆。三个平台管理系统的三个不同方面,每个方面都有明确的责任。它们之间的关系将由所有三个权威方面来管理:法律、知识和财务。在这三个背景下,知识是共同点,因此将起到整合剂的作用。核心知识小组中的成员及其经理之间的关系是老板与下属(法律)的关系,而在护理系统和交付系统的背景下,关系是客户与提供者的关系。因此,三个单位的成功运作将需要创建一个具有可变预算的吞吐量和测量系统,这是本设计的一个组成部分。
The three-dimensionality should not be mistaken for the conventional concept of the division of labor and the three-boss system. The three platforms manage the three different aspects of the system, each with a clear-cut accountability in the process. Their relationships will be governed by all three aspects of authority: legal, knowledge, and financial. Across the three contexts, knowledge is the common denominator and therefore will work as the integrative agent. The relationship of the members and their manager in the core knowledge group is boss–subordinate (legal), while in the context of the care system and delivery system the relationship is customer–provider. The successful operation of the three units will therefore require that the creation of a throughput and measurement system with variable budgeting be an integral part of this design.
该设计独特地满足了知识驱动型组织的特殊要求。它基于这样一个事实:角色而非个人实际上是社会系统的基石。因此,人们可以在各种组织中拥有多个成员身份,并在这些组织中扮演不同的角色。通过利用这一现象,该设计将为个人贡献者提供不受限制的可能性,让他们能够不断发展和发挥创造力,而这些发展和创造力都伴随着多角色、全程参与整个医疗保健过程。多角色参与将保护知识工作者的完整性,使他们免于被划分为不同的部门。将专业人员从狭隘的工作束缚中解放出来将使系统去官僚化,并使个人和组织在快速变化的环境中免于孤立、单一、僵化、琐碎的地盘之争和不可避免的过时。
The design uniquely matches the exceptional requirements of knowledge-driven organizations. It is based on the fact that role rather than individual is actually the building block of social systems. Owing to this, people can have multiple memberships in a variety of organizations in which they act out very different roles. By taking advantage of this phenomenon, the design will provide the individual contributor with unrestricted possibilities for the kind of continuous development and creativity that come with multirole, total involvement in the whole process of health care. Multirole involvement will safeguard the wholeness of the knowledge worker by saving him/her from compartmentalization. Uncoupling the professional from the trappings of narrowly defined jobs will de-bureaucratize the system and rescue both the people and the organization from insulation, unidimensionality, rigidity, petty turf wars, and inevitable obsolescence in a rapidly changing environment.
摆脱固定和永久的工作描述将使护理系统和 HDS 平台同样免受变革阻力、结构冲突和次优化的影响。这将为它们提供无限的灵活性和能力,以进行前所未有的实验和创新。
Freedom from fixed and permanent job descriptions will provide the care systems and HDS platforms with equal freedom from resistance to change, structural conflicts, and suboptimization. It will provide them with infinite flexibility and capacity for unprecedented experimentation and innovation.
将知识工作者从严格的工作描述中分离出来是制度化创造自由的一种手段。这种自由通过持续学习和全员参与确保专业卓越和组织生存能力。让系统自由地不断定义和重新定义其竞争优势的基础将防止战略短视和那些让过去成功的要求成为未来失败根源的组织默认行为。该设计旨在促进精英管理并打击官僚主义倾向,如果不加以控制,这些倾向将导致平庸、晋升为无能,并最终将能力转化为取消资格。
Separation of the knowledge worker from a rigid job description is a means for institutionalizing creative freedom. Such freedom ensures professional excellence and organizational viability through continuous learning and total involvement. Freeing the system to constantly define and redefine its basis for competitive advantage will prevent strategic myopia and those organizational defaults that let the requirements of past success become the source of future failure. The design is intended to promote meritocracy and combat bureaucratic tendencies that, when left unchecked, would lead to mediocrity, promotion to incompetence, and eventual conversion of competence to a disqualification.
护理系统的项目经理将负责将从业人员的意见纳入护理产品的设计中。他们将确保产品开发能够反映新兴市场的需求。他们还将确保设计的完整性不会受到影响。项目经理将提供内容并负责交付成果的效力,以及支付参与产品开发的从业人员/设计师的服务费用。然而,从业人员/设计师的实际培训和发展将在核心知识中进行。因此,开发过程将具有双重界面:市场和核心知识。
Project managers at care systems will be responsible for incorporating the inputs of the practitioners in the design of care products. They will make sure that the product development will reflect the emerging market needs. They will also make sure that the integrity of the design is not compromised. Project managers will provide the content and be responsible for the potency of the deliverables, as well as pay for the services of the practitioners/designers who participate in product development. The actual training and development of the practitioners/designers, however, will take place in core knowledge. Thus the development process will have a dual interface: the market and core knowledge.
挑战在于如何实现设计潜力,同时满足个人的独立需求和组织的相互依赖需求。设计是一种刻意尝试,避免为了部分的方便而牺牲整体的利益,反之亦然。次优化是刻意设计的,以使系统能够避免强加胜/败解决方案,这种解决方案会让成员们相互对抗,以牺牲企业战争为代价赢得功能之战。如果病人最终死亡,手术很难算作成功。
The challenge is to realize the potentials of the design for responding to the individual's need for independence and the organization's need for interdependence at the same time. The design is a deliberate attempt to avoid sacrificing the good of the whole for the convenience of the part, and vice versa. Suboptimization is deliberately designed out to make it possible for the system to avoid imposition of win/lose solutions that would pit the members against each other in their attempts to win functional battles at the expense of the corporate war. An operation can hardly be qualified as a success if the patient ultimately dies.
三个平台的整合虽然很有吸引力,但并非易事。要发挥其巨大的潜力,需要这些平台的全面合作、HDS 总裁的全力关注以及真正的文化转型(不要误认为是气候调查)。在此过程中,不应低估长期适应单一角色表现所带来的舒适度所带来的阻力强度。
The integration of the three platforms, although attractive, should not be considered easy. It will take the total cooperation of these platforms, the full attention of the HDS president, and a real cultural transformation (not to be mistaken with a climate survey) for its enormous potentials to be realized. In the process, the intensity of the resistance associated with the comfort level that comes with prolonged adaptation to single-role performance should never be underestimated.
总体而言,执行办公室将负责确保系统的整体可行性和有效性。它将负责创建愿景和形成理想未来的共同形象,并提供领导力来帮助实现组织的使命。为此,执行办公室负责创建以下三个关键流程。
As a whole, the executive office will be responsible for ensuring the overall viability and effectiveness of the system. It will be responsible for creating a vision and generating a shared image of a desired future and providing the leadership to help achieve the organization's mission. To do this, the executive office is responsible for creating the following three critical processes.
• 减少周期时间
• Decrease cycle time
• 消除浪费
• Eliminate waste
• 提高灵活性
• Improve flexibility
• 提高质量
• Increase quality
生产能力发生在两个层面。执行办公室将制定政策和标准,而运营经理将负责实施。与生产能力流程有关的实施活动将在组织的各个层面开展。系统的每个成员都将参与持续改进活动。
Throughput happens at two levels. The executive office will set the policies and standards while the operational managers will be responsible for operationalization. The implementation activities concerning the throughput process will be carried out at all levels of the organization. Every member of the system will participate in the continuous improvement activity.
在总裁兼首席执行官的领导下,一小群跨学科的员工将以跨职能团队的形式负责在各自的领域制定延迟、协同和吞吐量流程。
Under the leadership of the president and CEO, a small group of interdisciplinary staff, operating in cross-functional teams, will be responsible for instituting the latency, synergy, and throughput processes in their own area.
本节旨在提醒大家新设计的关键点。该设计同时利用了三个权威基础:法律来源(老板)、知识来源(能力)和经济来源(资产和金钱)。
This section is intended to serve as a reminder of the key points of the new design. The design utilizes the three bases of authority at the same time: the legal source (the boss), the knowledge source (competence), and the economic source (assets and money).
而在核心知识领域,所有医生都向一名医生汇报,所有护士都向一名护士汇报,所有技术人员都向一名技术人员汇报。在这里,管理和相互关系将以解决方案为导向并分门别类。这种安排将承认并满足专业知识边界的要求,并为专业发展和同行监督的学科方法建立环境和合理性。在核心知识领域,组织将以输入为基础,因此具有功能性。
While in core knowledge, all doctors report to a doctor, all nurses to a nurse, and all technicians to a technician. Here, the management and interrelationships will be solution-oriented and compartmentalized. This arrangement will recognize and satisfy the requirements for specialized knowledge boundaries and establish the environment and rationality for the disciplinary approaches to professional development and peer oversight. In core knowledge, the organization will be input-based and therefore functional.
然而,在护理系统或 HDS 中,模式从功能性转变为模块化。管理、团队和关系将以问题为导向并以治疗为驱动。患者护理的要求通常是多学科现象,它将成为项目团队组成和设计和实践方法应用的标准。因此,在护理系统和 HDS 中,组织将是跨职能的和基于产出的。这里的经理的能力不一定是单一专业的功能。整体产出的要求将决定最合适的领导者,他可能是医生、护士或技术人员。
When in care systems or HDS, however, the mode is reversed from functional to modular. The management, the team, and the relationships will be problem-oriented and treatment-driven. The requirements of patient care, which is usually a multidisciplinary phenomenon, will become the criteria for the composition of the project teams and the application of the design and practice methodology. In care systems and HDS, the organization will therefore be cross-functional and output based. The competence of the manager here is not necessarily a function of a single specialization. The requirements of the totality of the output will determine the most suitable leader, who might happen to be a doctor, a nurse, or a technician.
从逻辑上讲,人们普遍认为,任何人都不应该向代表不同学科的人汇报工作,这种误解将阻碍卫生服务系统采用基于现实世界问题的跨学科方法,而这种方法与大学的划分方式截然不同。这种划分不仅将是单学科的和以解决方案为导向的(而不是跨学科的和以问题为导向的),而且必然会导致结构性冲突的产生和对胜负解决方案的强加。这就是为什么基于传统分工的冲突永远无法化解,除非重新设计系统。
Taken to its logical conclusion, the widely held misconception that nobody should report to anybody who represents a different discipline will prevent a health delivery system from adopting the interdisciplinary approaches based on real-world problems that are so radically different from the way universities divide themselves. Such compartmentalizations will not only be unidisciplinary and solution-oriented (rather than interdisciplinary and problem-oriented), but they will invariably lead to creation of structural conflicts and imposition of win/lose solutions. That is why conflicts based on the traditional division of labor can never be dissolved unless the system is redesigned.
新的设计将防止结构性冲突,而不是让管理人员去处理。通过让基本相同的人参与学习、设计和实践医疗保健,可以确保预防。这是自我管理和向上管理的本质。
The new design will prevent structural conflicts rather than leaving them for managers to cope with. The prevention is assured by getting basically the same people to engage in learning, designing, and practicing health care. This is the essence of self-management and managing upward.
不是跨职能团队共同制定的路径,即使高效,也不会被广泛接受或得到普遍认可。为了既有效又能实际应用,这些路径不仅应该由集体共同制定,还应该为从业者留下一定程度的自由来即兴发挥。否则,看似完美的程序将被证明是令人窒息的,因为它太过僵化,无法适应手头的情况,也太过严格,无法让从业者创新。一个允许选择和实验的低效系统最终将被证明优于一件完美的束缚衣。
Pathways that are not the product of cross-functional teams, even if efficient, will not be widely owned or find general acceptance. To be both inherently effective and actually applied, the pathways not only should be collectively coproduced but should leave a certain degree of freedom for the practitioner to improvise. Otherwise, a seemingly perfected procedure will prove suffocating because it will be too rigid for adaptation to the case at hand and too tight for the practitioner to innovate. An inefficient system that would allow choice and experimentation will ultimately prove superior to a perfected straitjacket.
第十二章 万豪集团
Chapter twelve. The Marriott Corporation
1992 年,万豪酒店面临着巨大的挑战。当时的形势很糟糕。游戏规则发生了巨大变化。房地产市场崩盘,酒店业主(万豪酒店的主要客户)损失了 50% 以上的物业价值,许多酒店濒临破产。此外,Corporate America(万豪酒店的主要现金来源)不得不进行所谓的“精简”,大幅度削减成本。万豪酒店要想生存下去,就必须挽救陷入困境的所有权客户群,并向其主要现金来源——Corporate America 伸出援手。这迫使万豪酒店重新设计,以大幅降低运营成本。在与银行合作为所有陷入困境的物业再融资的同时,万豪酒店决定进行重新设计,用高尚的设计取代低效且成本高昂的部门结构。结果是,万豪酒店彻底转型为模块化架构,从而能够产生足够的现金流,让万豪酒店重新走上持续成功的道路。
Marriott faced an incredible challenge in 1992. Times were bad. The game had changed drastically. Real estate had collapsed and hotel owners (Marriott's main customers) had lost more than 50% of the value of their properties and many were at the verge of bankruptcy. Furthermore, Corporate America (Marriott's major source of cash) was by necessity involved in so-called “right-sizing” and cut costs left and right. For Marriott to survive it was imperative to rescue its troubled ownership–customer base and extend a helping hand to its major source of cash, Corporate America. This forced Marriott to redesign itself to take an order-of-magnitude cost out of its operations. Parallel with dealing collectively with the banks to refinance all of the troubled properties, Marriott decided to engage in a redesign process to replace the ineffective and costly divisional structure with a noble design. The outcome was a profound transformation to a modular architecture that made it possible to generate sufficient cash flow to put the Marriott right back on the path to its continued success.
我的好友 Kathy Dannemiller 向万豪酒店的人推荐了我。Pat Stocker 院长邀请我去阿斯彭研究所做一天的演讲,万豪酒店总裁 Bill Tiefel 和他的下属正在参加为期一周的高管研讨会。
Kathy Dannemiller, a dear friend, had recommended me to the Marriott people. Dean Pat Stocker invited me to make a one-day presentation at the Aspen Institute, where Bill Tiefel, president of Marriott Lodging, and his direct reports were attending a week-long executive seminar.
万豪的研讨会非常精彩。公司面临着巨大的挑战。时局艰难。游戏规则发生了巨大变化。房地产市场崩盘,酒店业主(万豪的主要客户)需要更多现金才能生存。Corporate America(万豪的主要现金来源)参与了所谓的“精简规模”并大肆削减成本。
The Marriott seminar was very exciting. The company faced an incredible challenge. Times were bad. The game had changed drastically. Real estate had collapsed, and hotel owners (Marriott's main customers) needed more cash to survive. Corporate America (Marriott's major source of cash) was involved in so-called “right-sizing” and cutting costs left and right.
1992 年夏天,在我们第一次研讨会的一个月后,酒店执行委员会决定进行理想设计流程,用高尚的设计取代低效且昂贵的部门结构。结果是万豪酒店发生了深刻的转变,使其重新走上了持续成功的道路。
A month after our first seminar, in the summer of 1992, the Lodging Executive Committee decided to engage in an ideal-design process to replace the ineffective and costly divisional structure with a noble design. The outcome was a profound transformation of Marriott, which put it right back on the path to its continued success.
酒店成立了两个平行团队:一个负责设计,另一个负责制定“餐饮”方案。设计团队由比尔·蒂费尔执行委员会的 24 名成员组成。餐饮团队由六名万豪酒店专业人士组成。不过,餐饮团队的报告属于机密性质,因此本文不作讨论。
Two parallel teams were formed: one for design and the other for “mess” formulation. The design team consisted of 24 members of Bill Tiefel's executive committee. The mess team consisted of six able Marriott Lodging professionals. However, the mess team's report, because of its confidential nature, will not be discussed here.
John Pourdehnad 是我的同事兼老友,也是我在这个项目中的合作伙伴。他不仅指导食堂团队制定了出色的食堂方案,而且是设计过程中不可或缺的参与者。
John Pourdehnad, my colleague and old friend, was my partner in this project. He not only guided the mess team to an outstanding mess formulation, but was also an indispensable participant in the design process.
以下是设计团队对三次迭代的总结。设计过程涉及以下步骤:
What follows is a summary of the three iterations by the design team. The design process involved the following steps:
• 形成对环境的集体理解——“游戏如何演变?”和“新的竞争基础是什么?”
• Developing a collective understanding of the environment — “How is the game evolving?” and “What are the new bases for competition?”
• 确定要设计的系统的目的(指定所需的属性、核心价值和使命)
• Identifying the purpose of the system to be designed (specifying the desired properties, core values, and mission)
• 创建一个平台,一个万豪酒店未来的愿景和发展方向,以及一个能够不断应对不断变化的环境挑战的学习系统
• Creating a platform, a vision of a desired future for Marriott Lodging and a direction for its development, and a learning system that would be capable of responding continuously to the challenges of a changing environment
未来已今非昔比。预测和准备变得越来越困难,甚至不可能。因此,当代组织需要专注于创造自己的未来,而不是浪费时间试图预测和准备。
The future is not what it used to be. It is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to predict and prepare. Contemporary organizations, therefore, need to focus on creating their own futures rather than waste their time attempting to predict and prepare.
• 当前的经济状况(1992 年)不能仅仅用周期性现象来解释。而且它不仅仅意味着衰退。经济似乎正在向更符合其竞争力新兴状态的水平进行重组。
• The current state of the economy (1992) cannot be explained away only as a cyclical phenomenon. And it does not only imply recession. The economy seems to be restructuring toward a level more compatible with the emerging state of its competitiveness.
• 房地产市场已经发生了变化。房地产市场目前的疲软不是暂时的,在可预见的未来也不太可能改变。因此,不能仅仅依靠资产升值就能取胜。
• The real estate market has changed. The current weakness of the real estate market is not temporary and is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the game cannot be played on the assumption that one can win through asset appreciation alone.
• 消费者行为正在发生变化。客户变得越来越聪明,他们想要用更少的钱买到更多的东西。
• Consumer behavior is changing. Customers are becoming smarter and want more and more for less and less.
• 企业面临成本压力并且变得对价格非常敏感。
• Businesses face cost pressures and are becoming very price-sensitive.
• 需求正在从一个层级转移到另一个层级。
• Demand is shifting from one tier to the next.
• 质量、成本和时间相互依存,形成一个相辅相成的整体。任何因素都不能以牺牲其他因素为代价而做出妥协。
• Quality, cost, and time are interdependent and form a complementary whole. None can be compromised at the expense of the others.
• 学会在不确定性中生存。变得更加灵活和敏捷——拥有预警能力。
• Learn to live with uncertainty. Become more flexible and agile — have an early warning capability.
• 大幅降低运营成本。选择合适的服务并提高其质量。
• Reduce the cost of operation by an order of magnitude. Select the right services and improve their quality.
• 采取价格竞争措施填补未使用的产能。
• Adopt price-competitive measures to fill up unused capacity.
• 重新设计产品、流程和结构,以降低20%至30%的成本。
• Redesign the product, the process, and the structure to reap a 20 to 30% cost reduction.
• 避免被推入不受欢迎的产品/市场领域。
• Avoid being pushed into an undesirable product/market niche.
• 针对市场新兴需求,对产品进行差异化和搭配。
• Differentiate and match products in response to the market's emerging needs.
• 减记资产(重新标记)——做一个聪明的交易者。
• Write down the assets (reflagging) — be a smart deal maker.
• 考虑债务偿还与资产价值的比率。考虑所有者如何看待价值以及进入该业务的动机。
• Factor in the ratio of debt service to asset value. Factor in how the owner perceives value and is motivated to get into this business.
• 制定针对业主和贷款人的策略。
• Develop a strategy directed at the owners and the lenders.
• 如果业主破产,请查明谁在购买他们的资产。资产管理顾问小组应负责制定应对这种情况的策略,并具备预测能力,而不是被动应对。
• If the owners are failing, find out who is buying their assets. The asset management advisory group should be charged with developing both a strategy to deal with this situation and a capability to anticipate rather than react.
• 我们将在服务价值链的各个层面提供价值(收益/成本)。我们将在价值链的末端即“客人”处定义价值,然后逐步追溯到物业、业主、地区、品牌、部门和公司。
• We will deliver value (benefits/costs) at all levels of the service value chain. We will define value at the end of the chain, “the guest,” and work our way back to property, owner, region, brand, division, and corporation.
• 我们将不断调整产品供应以适应不断变化的客户需求(战略产品与市场契合度)。
• We will continuously match the product offerings with changing customer needs (strategic product-market fit).
• 我们将负责创建双赢的环境,消除各个运营层面的客人、同事、股东、业主和分销商之间的冲突。
• We will take responsibility for creating a win/win environment that dissolves conflict among guests, associates, shareholders, owners, and distributors at various levels of the operations.
• 我们将挑战行业,成为酒店管理领域无可争议的领导者。我们将通过以下方式实现这一目标:
• We will challenge the industry by becoming the undisputed leaders in hotel management. We will accomplish this by:
• 培育一个精简、简单、非官僚、灵活的组织,使正式和非正式系统同步,并实现组织范围内的轻松沟通
• Fostering a lean, simple, nonbureaucratic, and flexible organization in which formal and informal systems are in synch and easy organization-wide communication is enjoyed
• 创建一个相互支持、相互依存的体系,充分利用技术、产品/品牌和市场相互作用产生的协同效应
• Creating a mutually supportive and interdependent system that takes full advantage of the synergy resulting from the interaction of technology, product/brands, and markets
• 通过知识领导力体现卓越价值
• Being identified with value excellence through knowledge leadership
• 化解自由与责任的矛盾,确保各级权力与责任相匹配
• Dissolving the dilemma between freedom and accountability, ensuring that authority and responsibility are matched at all levels
• 设计以产出为导向的双赢奖励制度,帮助化解结构性冲突
• Designing a throughput-oriented, win/win reward system that helps dissolve structural conflicts
• 利用技术创造价值——用更少的资源做更多的事情,从而提高资源生产率/收益
• Leveraging technology to deliver value — doing more and more with less and less, resulting in higher resource productivity/yield
• 我们将努力通过了解所有利益相关者需求之间的动态互动来实现他们的共同满意。除非我们所有的利益相关者(客人、同事、股东、业主和分销商)都取得成功,否则我们无法取得成功。
• We will attempt to achieve mutual satisfaction of all stakeholders by understanding the dynamic interaction of their needs. We cannot succeed unless all of our stakeholders — guests, associates, shareholders, owners, and distributors — are successful.
• 我们了解我们的多层次客户群。除了我们的客人,业主也是其他重要客户。当我们的客户遇到麻烦时,我们也会遇到麻烦。
• We recognize our multi-tier customer base. In addition to our guests, property owners are the other critical customers. And when our customers are in trouble, we are in trouble.
我们希望成为您的“首选”。
We want to be your “FIRST CHOICE.”
万豪酒店:
At Marriott:
• 每位客人都渴望再次光临。
• Every guest will be eager to return.
• 每位员工都能够发挥自己的潜力。
• Every associate will be able to realize his/her potentials.
• 每位业主都将享受优质的管理服务支持。
• Every owner will be supported by superior management services.
• 每一位股东都将获得丰厚的回报。
• Every shareholder will be rewarded by premium returns.
该架构认识到同时在市场、产品和技术等所有维度上实现竞争优势的必要性。因此,它力求消除围绕任何一个维度的次优化。目标是通过在三个维度之间建立双赢关系来积极产生协同效应、延迟和效率。
The architecture recognizes the necessity for achieving competitive advantage in all dimensions of market, product, and technology simultaneously. It therefore seeks to eliminate suboptimization around any one dimension. The objective is to actively generate synergy, latency, and efficiency by creating a win/win relationship among the three dimensions.
这种架构通过以下方式开辟了传统方法通常无法实现的可能性:
This architecture opens up possibilities that are usually closed to traditional approaches by:
• 为上下级关系添加新类型,作为组织构建的基本要素(客户-供应商)
• Adding new types of relationships to the superior–subordinate pairs as the fundamental blocks for organization building (customer–supplier)
• 将控制的性质从监督转变为学习——监督被认为是一种浪费
• Changing the nature of control from supervision to learning — supervision is considered wasteful
• 化解市场需求与竞争产品群体的不同利益之间的结构性冲突
• Dissolving structural conflicts between the requirements of the marketplace and the diverse interests of competing product groups
• 通过开发集成解决方案而不是拼凑大量不兼容和离散的解决方案来降低复杂性
• Reducing complexity by developing integrated solutions instead of patching together a multitude of incompatible and discrete solutions
• 实现集中与分散、一体化与差异化、相互依存与自主性同时实现
• Allowing centralization and decentralization, integration and differentiation, and interdependency and autonomy to all be realized simultaneously
将产品与市场相匹配并非一次性的提议。它需要持续的研究和重新设计。引入品牌经理的概念作为架构中的新维度将使这一功能制度化,以提供对挑战的持续响应。理想的公司还将为其一些核心组件和核心知识(即预订/贵宾计划和培训)寻找新的机会。
Matching products with markets is not a one-time proposition. It requires continuous research and redesign. Introducing the concept of brand managers as a new dimension in the architecture will institutionalize this function to provide an ongoing response to the challenge. The ideal company will also seek new opportunities for some of its core components and for its core knowledge (i.e., reservation/Honored Guest programs and training).
所有住宿产品的运营将根据每个市场的具体特点和要求进行组织和管理,充分利用市场提供的全部机会。市场将根据任何特定经济区域内客户的行为特征和要求进行细分。这将减少竞争产品部门之间的结构性冲突,并有可能为每个区域运营创建最佳产品组合,以实现其最大潜力。
Operations will be organized and managed across all lodging products according to each market's specific characteristics and requirements, taking advantage of the total opportunities presented by the marketplace. The markets will be segmented based on the behavioral characteristics and requirements of customers in any given economic region. This will reduce the structural conflict between competing product divisions and make it possible to create an optimum product mix for each regional operation to realize its maximum potential.
整个全球市场将划分为十个区域。每个区域将管理 50 到 75 个不同的酒店(包括所有品牌)。大型酒店将设有总经理,小型酒店将集中进行区域管理。主要工作重点是让酒店能够独立开展工作,并尽量减少监督。
The total world market will be divided into ten regions. Each region will manage 50 to 75 different properties (including all brands). Large properties will have GMs, and smaller properties will be clustered into area management. The major concentration of effort will be to empower properties to do their work on their own and with minimal supervision.
根据职能范围和多样性,区域经理将有数名助理。这些区域经理助理将接受培训,以备选总经理职位之用。助理经理将胜任多项职能,以避免头重脚轻的官僚主义,并在不断变化的环境条件下促进管理和组织的灵活性。
Depending on the extent and diversity of functions, regional managers will have several assistants. These assistants to regional managers will be trained with candidacy for GM posts in mind. Assistant managers will be competent in several functions to avoid top-heavy bureaucratization and to promote managerial and organizational flexibility under changing environmental conditions.
在每个区域内,运营将自下而上设计,而不是自上而下。首先,将确定哪些功能和服务是理想的,并且最适合在物业层面运营。然后,将确定哪些功能和服务可以在区域层面共享,然后再决定哪些功能和服务最适合在区域层面提供。
Within each region, operations will be designed bottom-up, not top-down. First, those functions and services that are desired and can be best operated at the property level will be identified. Then, those functions and services that can be shared at the regional level will be identified before deciding which ones will best be provided at the regional level.
各地理区域的组织将根据各地区的市场潜力而有所不同。但以下功能将作为模型。
The organization of each geographical region will differ based on the market potential of each area. However, the following functions will be used as a model.
该职能将包括财务、会计、行政和人力资源服务,以及任何其他区域管理支持业务(包括业主关系)。该部门将由核心组件维度的业务服务部门提供支持。
This function will include finance, accounting, administrative and human resources services, and any other regional management support operations (including owner relations). This group will be supported by the business services unit of the core component dimension.
项目团队将围绕特定的生产流程进行组织,但所有团队都将具备信息技术、全面质量管理 (TQM)、人力系统和设计方面的跨职能专业知识。目标是在该地区的每个站点正确实施集成解决方案(由每个品牌经理开发),以便同时实现以下所有成功的关键目标:缩短周期时间、消除浪费、创造灵活性和全面质量管理。核心知识组或整个公司开发的任何其他项目的推出都将由该职能部门负责。
Project teams will be organized around specific throughput processes, but will all have cross-functional expertise in information technology, total quality management (TQM), human systems, and design. The objective is proper implementation of the integrated solution (developed by each brand manager) at each site in the region, allowing all of the following critical goals for success to be accomplished simultaneously: reduction of cycle time, elimination of waste, creation of flexibility, and management of total quality. Rollout of any other projects developed by the core knowledge groups or the corporation as a whole will be undertaken by this function.
所有用于维护场址及工程和维护职能的活动都将归入这一职能,并为区域基地提供服务。
All of the activities directed at the upkeep of the sites and the engineering and maintenance function will be grouped under this function, which will provide services to the regional bases.
区域销售工作将包括直销、定价、定位和销售培训。
The regional sales effort will include direct sales, pricing, positioning, and sales training.
品牌管理将全面负责产品开发和产品管理。它将制定经营特定类型住宿业务所需的所有操作程序。品牌管理将是设计和住宿概念的所有者,并且将是区域/市场运营的供应商。
Brand management will assume total responsibility for product development and product management. It will develop all the necessary operational procedures to operate a given type of lodging operation. Brand management will be the owner of the design and the lodging concept, and it will be a supplier to the region/market operations.
初期品牌管理将仅限于基础型、豪华型、团体型、会议型四种模式,但后续可能会增加Courtyards、Fairfield Inn、Residence Inn。
Initially, brand management will be limited to four models: basic, luxury, group, and convention. However, Courtyards, Fairfield Inn, and Residence Inn might be added later.
产品/品牌管理将履行以下职能:
Product/brand management will perform the following functions:
• 概念开发和概念实施指南
• Concept development and concept implementation guidelines
• 品牌营销和定位、指导方针、渗透、需求要求和竞争情报
• Brand marketing and positioning, guidelines, penetration, demand requirements, and competitive intelligence
• 特许经营指南、商业模式、系统集成和核心交付成果
• Franchising guidelines, business modeling, system integration, and core deliverables
• 运营流程和维护品牌形象(保持品牌不受其他细分市场的干扰)
• Operating procedures and maintaining brand identity (keeping the brand clean from other niches)
• 确定产品、客房、餐厅、休息室、餐饮、服务和便利设施的适当标准
• Determining the appropriate standards for the product, deliveries in rooms, restaurant, lounge, catering, services, and amenities
• 与广告、促销和公共关系、价格分析、产品标准改进/价值工程、新兴趋势和市场需求以及定位调整的反馈和互动
• Feedback and interaction with advertising, promotion and public relations, price analysis, product criteria refinements/value engineering, emerging trends and market requirements, and adjustments to positioning
核心组件组将以最低的价格向内部客户提供其服务。内部采购最初可能由公司补贴。服务将以市场价格出售给外部客户。
Core component groups will make their services available to the internal customers at the lowest available price. Internal purchases might initially be subsidized by the corporation. The services will be sold at the market price to outside customers.
以下将构成住宿业务的核心组成部分:
The following will constitute the core components of the lodging operations:
• 万豪视频制作、广告管理、客户数据库、优质渠道访问、品牌名称以及其他超越某一特定酒店的客户问题。
• Marriott video productions, advertising management, customer database, superior channel access, brand name, and other customer issues that go beyond one particular property.
• 建立客户调查系统来衡量客户满意度。
• A customer survey system to measure guest satisfaction.
• 全国销售体系包括销售部署和销售线索推荐系统。
• The national sales system to include a sales deployment and lead referral system.
• 开发客户响应(场外)系统以便逐步升级。
• A customer response (off property) system to be developed for escalation.
• 将利用全国公共关系网络。
• A national public relations network to be utilized.
• 提供会议和会议管理服务。
• Meeting and conference management services to be available.
MHRS 将在以下领域开发最先进的能力:
MHRS will develop state-of-the-art capabilities in the following areas:
• 信息技术
• Information technology
• 工艺技术
• Process technology
• 烹饪研究
• Culinary research
该团队的专业知识将被组织的各个层面所利用,包括核心组件、品牌管理以及区域和财产管理。
The expertise of this group will be utilized by all dimensions of the organization including core components, brand management, and regional and property management.
在 MHRS,每个单位都将是一个“绩效中心”。对于每个单位,将制定一套具体的绩效衡量标准。每个单位都有望通过其运营为 MHRS 增加价值。因此,盈利能力将成为衡量每个单位绩效的关键因素。每个单位的收入将来自其对其他单位和/或外部客户的“销售”。
In MHRS, every unit will be a “performance center.” For each unit, a set of specific measures of performance will be developed. Each unit will be expected to add value to MHRS through its operations. Therefore, profitability will be a key factor in the performance measurement of each unit. Each unit's revenues will be derived from their “sales” to other units and/or to external customers.
为确保成本和质量竞争力,每个组成部分业务都将能够独立生存。因此,该集团中的每个单位都将被视为单独的业务。
To ensure cost and quality competitiveness, each of the component businesses will be capable of surviving on a stand-alone basis. Therefore, each of the units in this group will be treated as a separate business.
零部件部门的单位可以选择在 MHRS 之外销售产品和服务。同样,区域经理也可以选择从外部供应商采购核心零部件。
Units within the components dimension will have the option of selling their products and services outside MHRS. Likewise, regional managers will have the option of sourcing their core components from external suppliers.
一开始,MHRS 可能需要对核心部件供应商进行补贴,然后才能为其内部客户提供有竞争力的价格。
At the beginning, it might be necessary for the MHRS to subsidize the core components provider before it can offer competitive prices to its internal customers.
设计团队同意使用规划委员会作为在理想 MHRS 中创建和控制决策过程的工具。具体而言,规划委员会概念将用于以下原因:
The design team concurred in using planning boards as a vehicle for creating and controlling the decision process in the ideal MHRS. In particular, the planning board concept will be utilized for the following reasons:
• 同时实现一致性和授权。
• To achieve consistency and empowerment at the same time.
• 消除因官僚主义而产生的监督浪费。
• To eliminate supervision as a bureaucratic waste.
• 使组织各个层级的权力与责任相匹配。
• To match authority with responsibility at all levels of the organization.
• 组织结构将扁平化,决策将由最低相关层面做出。
• The organization will be flat and decisions will be made at the lowest relevant level.
• 核心竞争力和价值观(参数/基于客户)将被组织的每个层面所熟知。
• Core competencies and values (parameters/customer-based) will be known at every level of the organization.
• 将使用积极主动并预测客户需求的流程。
• A process that is proactive and anticipates the needs of the customer will be used.
• 将制定发现不匹配情况(例如,与客户期望不一致、与现实不匹配)的反馈流程,以便采取纠正措施。
• Feedback processes that surface mismatches (e.g., misalignment with customer expectations, mismatches with reality) will be developed so that corrective action can be taken.
我们将制定预测客户未来需求和新想法的流程,以及在项目推出之前发现可解决的问题的流程。
Processes that anticipate the future needs and new ideas of our customers, and processes that surface problems that can be incorporated before a program is rolled out will be developed.
互动政策团队将成为协调政策和计划以及化解 MHRS 各部门之间冲突的主要工具。
Interactive policy teams will be the main vehicle for alignment of policies and plans and for dissolving conflicts among units in MHRS.
每个互动政策团队至少有三级管理层成员:团队经理、其上司及其直接下属。其他成员可定期或针对特定问题加入。
Each interactive policy team will have a minimum of three levels of management as members: the manager whose team it is, his/her boss, and his/her direct reports. Other members may be added on a regular basis or on specific issues.
每项政策决策都会明确说明做出该决策的假设及其预期结果,特别是该决策对以下方面的影响:
Each policy decision will explicitly specify assumptions under which the decision is made and its expected outcome, specifically on the impact of the decision on:
• 财务表现
• Financial performance
• 人们
• People
• 输出(服务质量)
• Output (quality of service)
互动政策团队将负责制定政策。他们不会参与运营决策。政策将确定管理人员做出决策的标准。就决策标准达成一致将是成功分权的关键。如果未决决策没有政策,则负责的经理将自行做出决定。适当的互动政策团队可能会在以后决定制定针对未来情况的政策。每项政策都将在尽可能最低级别的团队中制定。
Interactive policy teams will be responsible for making policies. They will not get involved in operation decisions. Policies will establish the criteria by which managers make decisions. Agreement on decision criteria will be the key to successful decentralization. If no policy exists for a pending decision, the responsible manager will make the decision on his/her own. The appropriate interactive policy team may later decide to make a policy for future situations. Each policy will be made at the lowest level team possible.
将成立专门的互动政策团队,协调具有战略重要性的具体问题的政策。例如技术团队和区域/市场团队。
Special interactive policy teams will be formed to coordinate policy on specific issues of strategic importance. Examples may be a technology team and area/market teams.
万豪酒店新建筑的设计基于以下假设:
The design of a new architecture for Marriott is based on the following assumptions:
• 业主(特许经营者)是万豪集团的真正客户;因此,必须承认他们并给予他们相应的对待。
• Property owners (franchisees) are the real customers of Marriott Corporation; therefore, they have to be recognized and treated as such.
• 对于任何商业机构来说,问题客户都是最严重的预警系统。
• Troubled customers are the most serious early warning system for any business concern.
• 当前房地产市场的疲软并非暂时现象,在可预见的未来也不太可能改变。现在的游戏规则已经不能再假设资产升值能为业主带来足够的投资回报。
• Current weakness in the real estate market is not temporary and is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. The game can no longer be played on the assumption that asset appreciation generates sufficient return on investment for property owners.
• 迫切需要大幅降低成本并创造足够的营业利润来克服房地产市场的疲软。
• There is an urgent necessity to reduce costs by an order of magnitude and generate sufficient operating profit to overcome the weakness in the real estate market.
• 分部结构虽然优雅、简单,但是一种已不复存在的奢侈。
• Divisional structure with all its elegance and simplicity is a luxury that cannot be afforded any longer.
• 在特定市场上,万豪各个产品部门之间的竞争比万豪与其竞争对手之间的冲突更为激烈。
• Competition among various product divisions in Marriott in a given marketplace is much more intense than the conflict between Marriott and its competitors.
• 需要通过优化特定市场的产品组合来合理化产品部门之间的结构性冲突。
• Structural conflict among product divisions needs to be rationalized by optimizing the product mix in a given marketplace.
• 供应商-客户关系应该支配市场管理、品牌管理和核心部件之间的互动。
• Supplier–customer relations should govern the interactions among market management, brand management, and core components.
第 13 章 联邦能源系统
Chapter 13. Commonwealth Energy System
不管人们对美国的公用事业系统有何自我批评,它都是全世界羡慕的对象。要在几十年的时间内满足一个庞大大陆的无止境的能源需求,必须具备远大的眼光、非凡的领导力和巨大的努力。但成功带来了自满。公用事业公司封闭了自己的基因库,只与业内人士打交道。公用事业法规最初是为了恢复公众对垄断系统的信心并充当竞争的代理而制定的。但费率制定演变成一种“成本加成”系统,它更看重稳定、和谐和友爱,而不是能力。不幸的是,垄断监管环境,如果时间长了,就会把公认的美德变成邪恶。董事会、首席执行官和公司所有高管都预见到新的现实蕴含着一系列新的威胁和机遇,他们共同制定了这一令人信服的愿景和新的战略方向,这可以成为下一代能源业务的典范。
The American utility system, despite whatever self-criticism is leveled at it, was the envy of the world. To have covered and provided for the insatiable energy needs of a vast continent in a span of a few decades could not have been achieved without gigantic vision, phenomenal leadership, and Herculean effort. But with success came complacency. Utilities closed their gene pool, exclusively dealing with the insiders to the industry. Utility regulations were originally established to restore public confidence in the monopolistic system and serve as a proxy for competition. But the rate making evolved into a “cost plus” system with respect for stability, harmony, and camaraderie over competency. Unfortunately, a monopolistic regulated environment, given enough time, can make virtual evils out of proven virtues. Anticipating that new reality is pregnant with an array of new threats and opportunities, the Board of Trustees along with the CEO, and all of the company's senior executives joined together to create this compelling vision and new strategic direction that could be a model for the next generation of the energy business.
质量管理中心的 Thomas Lee 博士和麻省理工学院的 Gerald Wilson 教授向我介绍了联邦能源系统 (COM/Energy)。当我与 Wilson 博士一起重新设计开利公司时,我对他产生了极大的敬意。当他邀请我帮助制定 COM/Energy 的新企业战略时,我很高兴有机会再次与他合作,他是 COM/Energy 的董事。这是一个独特的机会,因为董事会的三名成员、首席执行官和公司的所有高级管理人员齐心协力,创造了一个令人信服的愿景和新的战略方向,将 COM/Energy 推向下一代能源业务的领导者之列。
Dr. Thomas Lee of the Center for Quality Management and Professor Gerald Wilson of MIT introduced me to Commonwealth Energy System (COM/Energy). I had developed a great respect for Dr. Wilson when I worked with him on the redesign of Carrier Corporation. I welcomed the chance to collaborate with him again when he asked me to help develop a new corporate strategy for COM/Energy, where he was a trustee. This was a unique opportunity because three members of the Board of Trustees, the CEO, and all the company's senior executives had joined together to create a compelling vision and new strategic direction that would place COM/Energy among the leaders in the next generation of the energy business.
设计团队由以下成员组成:官员包括系统规划副总裁 Leonard Devanna(COM/Energy 项目协调员);Commonwealth Gas(COM/Gas)总裁兼首席运营官 Kenneth Margossian;COM/Energy 首席执行官 William Poist;COM/Energy 财务兼财务主管副总裁 James Rappoli;COM/Energy 副总裁、秘书兼总法律顾问 Michael Sullivan;Commonwealth Electric(COM/Electric)总裁兼首席运营官 Russel Wright。受托人包括宝丽来公司受托人 Sheldon Buckler 博士;Reed & Barton 公司董事会主席 Sinclair Weeks, Jr.;麻省理工学院受托人 Gerald Wilson 博士。
The design team consisted of the following members: officers included Leonard Devanna Vice President, Systems, Planning (project coordinator, COM/Energy); Kenneth Margossian, President, Chief Operating Officer, Commonwealth Gas (COM/Gas); William Poist, Chief Executive Officer, COM/Energy; James Rappoli, Vice President, Finance, and Treasurer, COM/Energy; Michael Sullivan, Vice President, Secretary, and General Counsel, COM/Energy; and Russel Wright, President, Chief Operating Officer, Commonwealth Electric (COM/Electric). Trustees included Dr. Sheldon Buckler, Trustee, Polaroid Corporation; Sinclair Weeks, Jr., Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Reed & Barton Corporation; Dr. Gerald Wilson, Trustee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
此外,以下员工组成了“伙食团队”:COM/Gas 销售总监 Rob Bucknell;COM/Electric 通讯总监 Peter Dimond;COM/Gas 天然气采购经理 Robert Fleck;COM/Energy 预测分析师 David Gibbons,高级;COM/Electric 消费者服务经理 Charles Kiely;COM/Energy 资源规划总监 Michael Kirkwood;COM/Energy 财务服务总监 Paul Lynch;COM/Energy 成本管理员经理 Robert Martin;COM/Energy 律师、助理文员 Richard Morrison,高级;COM/Energy 预测分析师 Denise Murphy,高级;COM/Energy 福利经理 Bernard Peloquin;以及 COM/Gas 营销与保护经理 Ronald O'Brien。由于他们的报告属于机密性质,因此在此不再转载。
In addition, the following employees formed the “mess team”: Rob Bucknell, Director of Sales, COM/Gas; Peter Dimond, Director of Communications, COM/Electric; Robert Fleck, Manager, Gas Procurement, COM/Gas; David Gibbons, Sr., Forecast Analyst, COM/Energy; Charles Kiely, Manager, Consumer Service, COM/Electric; Michael Kirkwood, Director, Resource Planning, COM/Electric; Paul Lynch, Director, Treasury Services, COM/Energy; Robert Martin, Manager, Cost Administrator, COM/ Electric; Richard Morrison, Sr., Attorney, Assistant Clerk, COM/Energy; Denise Murphy, Sr., Forecast Analyst, COM/Energy; Bernard Peloquin, Manager, Benefits, COM/Energy; and Ronald O'Brien, Manager, Marketing & Conservation, COM/Gas. Their report, because of its confidential nature, is not reproduced here.
顾问是 INTERACT 的 Jamshid Gharajedaghi 和 Bijan Korram;以及质量管理中心 (CQM) 的托马斯·李 (Thomas Lee) 博士和托比·沃尔 (Toby Woll)。
Consultants were Jamshid Gharajedaghi and Bijan Korram, INTERACT; and Dr. Thomas Lee and Toby Woll, Center for Quality Management (CQM).
设计师认为,这里呈现的最终设计体现了所有利益相关者的期望、愿望和偏好。设计专注于化解混乱,创造理想的未来。
The designers believe that the resulting design, presented here, is an expression of the expectations, aspirations, and preferences of all stakeholders. The design focuses on dissolving the mess and creating a desired future.
股东的期望正在发生变化。直到最近,COM/Energy 和大多数公用事业公司一样,一直被视为一项安全的投资。然而,由于特许经营的限制和商业环境的变化,COM/Energy 目前的运营不再被视为提供重大增长机会和最小投资风险。许多投资者过去对公用事业的偏好——保证投资回报——的基础正在因不断变化的环境而受到质疑。在这种情况下,股东状况可能会发生转变,表明他们更倾向于大幅增长收益或更高的回报率,以补偿与该业务相关的增加的风险。
The expectations of shareholders are changing. Until recently, COM/Energy, like most utilities, had been regarded as a safe investment. However, because of the franchise's limitations and changes in the business environment, COM/Energy's present operation is no longer seen to provide a significant growth opportunity and a minimal investment risk. The basis for many investors' historical preference for utilities in general — a guaranteed return on investment — is being called into question by the changing environment. Under the circumstances, there might be a transformation in shareholder profile indicating a preference for significant growth in earnings or a higher rate of return as compensation for the increased risk associated with this business.
监管机构陷入了两种明显对立的期望之间。一种是回应政客和环保主义者推动昂贵社会议程的压力。通过将社会公正问题纳入费率制定以满足公众期望,监管机构已经实现了这一目标。然而,使用提高费率作为实现这些目标的手段已不再可接受;监管机构发现自己面临公众和政治压力,需要降低费率以满足客户并促进经济发展。因此,监管机构欢迎那些为他们的困境提供创新解决方案的人。
Regulators have been caught between two apparently opposing expectations. One is to respond to politicians' and environmentalists' pressures to promote a costly social agenda. This has been accomplished by incorporating social justice issues into rate formulation to satisfy public expectations. However, using rate increases as a means of accomplishing these objectives is no longer acceptable; the regulators find themselves under public and political pressures to decrease rates to satisfy customers and promote economic development. The regulators therefore would welcome those who offer innovative solutions to their dilemma.
员工们意识到游戏规则已经改变。他们希望拥有一个能够保证他们持续工作安全的环境,一个可以让他们发展的工作生活质量,一个可以让他们追求新想法、根据他们的表现获得差异化待遇以及一个能够建立富有成效的职业生涯的能力的环境。他们已经将 COM/Energy 视为首选雇主,并因此对该系统表现出了忠诚。
Employees realize that the game has changed. They would like an environment that assures them continued job security, a quality of work life in which they can develop, empowerment to pursue new ideas, differentiation based on their performance, and the ability to build a productive career. They have regarded COM/Energy as a preferred employer and have responded, in turn, with loyalty to the system.
然而,最近,员工的工作安全感受到了国家经济和行业趋势对 COM/Energy 的负面影响。他们似乎愿意竭尽全力帮助确保在 COM/Energy 工作的优势。在这种情况下,管理层有前所未有的机会获得员工的合作,从而在公司的方向和组织方面引入积极的变革。
Recently, however, the employees' sense of job security has been disturbed by the negative impact of emerging national economic and industry trends affecting COM/Energy. They seem willing to go out of their way to help secure the advantages of working for COM/Energy. Under the circumstances, the management has an unprecedented opportunity to gain the cooperation of the employees in introducing positive changes in the company's direction and organization.
客户通过要求以尽可能低的成本提供能源服务来应对自己的经济压力。他们认为成本加垄断系统无法满足他们的需求。他们欣赏该系统提供的可靠性和其他好处,但发现维护和改进该系统的价格过高。工业客户的期望是由供应商承诺的,如果监管不阻止他们,他们会降低价格。因此,客户欢迎放松管制的承诺,这将赋予他们选择权。
Customers are responding to their own economic pressures by demanding that energy services be provided at the lowest possible cost. They believe that the cost plus monopolistic system is not responsive to their demands. They appreciate the reliability and other benefits that the system has provided, yet find the price for maintaining and improving it unreasonably high. Industrial customers' expectations are fueled by suppliers promising them lower prices if regulations did not keep them out. Customers, therefore, welcome the promises of deregulation that would give them the power of choice.
有些客户同样对有限的公用事业服务感到失望,这些服务忽视了他们新出现的需求和问题,只是因为他们似乎不属于传统提供的常规服务类别之一。综合全能源服务是客户期望在未来拥有的增值举措。
Some customers are equally frustrated by a limited set of utility services that ignores their emerging needs and problems just because they do not seem to fall into one of the categories of conventional services traditionally provided. Integrated total energy services are value-adding initiatives that customers expect to have in the future.
供应商已经看到了他们自己业务领域发生的重大变化。他们意识到,新竞争的出现和长期供应过剩的存在将带来更多的不确定性和不安全感。他们有相当多的投资需要保护。他们需要在日益不可预测的环境中规避巨大的脆弱性。他们希望被视为家庭的合法成员,并被视为同样受到系统影响、真正与系统成功息息相关的合作伙伴。因此,他们希望被纳入公司的战略规划流程,以确保他们有机会为 COM/Energy 的生存做出贡献,并确保其业务的未来。供应商已准备好加入创业游戏。然而,他们希望在公平的竞争环境中公平地提供服务,并享有平等的机会。他们欢迎参与在风险和回报之间取得平衡的联盟。
Suppliers have seen major changes in their own business areas. They are aware that the advent of new competition and the existence of chronic oversupply will usher in increased uncertainty and insecurity. They have a considerable level of investment to protect. They need to hedge their enormous vulnerability against an increasingly unpredictable environment. They would like to be considered legitimate members of the family and treated as partners who are equally affected by the system and who have genuine stakes in its success. They therefore expect to be included in companies' strategic planning processes, to make sure they have a chance to contribute to the viability of COM/Energy and ensure the future of their businesses. The suppliers are prepared to enter the entrepreneurial game. However, they expect fairness and equal opportunity to provide their services based on a level playing field. They would welcome participation in alliances that strike a balance between risks and rewards.
广大公众,尤其是环保主义者,都担心能源生产和消费对环境的威胁。他们欢迎节约能源、远离污染的举措。他们支持某种形式的与污染和安全相关的外部成本内部化,但相信这些措施即使在价格较低的情况下也可以采取。公众似乎普遍接受了能源经济方程式变化的必然性。他们从欧洲的举措中得到一些启示,希望公用事业高效可靠,树立积极的公众形象,并被普遍视为良性的“绿色”运营。
The public at large, and especially environmentalists, are worried about the environmental threats of energy generation and consumption. They welcome moves toward conservation and away from pollution. They support some form of internalization of external costs associated with pollution and safety, but believe these measures can be taken even at lower prices. The public in general seems resigned to the inevitability of changes in energy's economic equation. Taking some of their cues from European initiatives, they expect utilities to be efficient and reliable, to project a positive public image, and to be generally regarded as a benign “green” operation.
没有人确切知道 COM/Energy 以及所有公用事业公司的未来会是什么样子。但可以肯定的是,COM/Energy 的未来将与过去大不相同。在一个规模较小、饱和的特许经营中,进一步放松管制、纳入环境成本、提高成本效益和激烈的竞争等压力日益增加,这些因素正在改变公司熟悉的格局,使之面目全非。唯一可以确定的是不确定性。
No one knows, with any degree of certainty, what the future of COM/Energy, and all utilities for that matter, will look like. What is certain, however, is that the future of COM/Energy will not be the same as its past. In a small, saturated franchise, growing pressures for further deregulation, inclusion of environmental costs, increasing cost-effectiveness, and intensified competition are among the major forces changing the company's familiar landscape beyond recognition. The only certainty will be uncertainty.
对于能源行业未来发展方向,我们总结了以下几种可能性:
As to what directions the energy industry may take, we identified the following possibilities:
• 当前特许经营区域内的增长不足以支持提供必要能源服务相关的不断增长的成本。
• Insufficient growth within the current franchise area to support the increasing costs associated with providing necessary energy services.
• 客户群的差异化(每个客户群都有一套独特的偏好)要求产品和服务的差异化。这将进一步为不同的供应商提供机会,让他们能够在同一市场上竞争,提供最有效的产品来满足某些优先客户的需求(例如,MIT 自发电)。
• Differentiation of customer base (each with a unique set of preferences) requires differentiation of products and services. This will further open up opportunities for different providers to compete in the same markets on the basis of the most effective offerings to meet the needs of certain preferred customers (e.g., MIT self-generation).
• 放松管制将使 COM/Energy 能够接触到现有特许经营饱和度和成熟度较低的地理区域的新客户。
• Deregulation providing COM/Energy with access to new customers in geographic areas that are less saturated and mature than the existing franchise.
• 不受监管的实体(例如经纪人、批发商和零售商)成为主要参与者。
• Emergence of nonregulated entities (e.g., brokers, wholesalers, and retail wheelers) as major players.
• 成本方程的修改使替代技术的应用变得可行(例如,可能对污染的产生征收环境税)。
• Modification of the cost equation makes the application of alternative technologies feasible (e.g., possible imposition of environmental taxes on the generation of pollution).
• 引入合并、收购、战略联盟和网络。
• Introduction of mergers, acquisitions, strategic alliances, and networks.
在开发过程中,我们假设系统在一夜之间被摧毁,但其环境中的一切都幸存下来,前面的部分概述了 COM/Energy 在利益相关者的期望和业务环境方面的定义背景。一旦确定了这一背景,设计团队就开始了下一阶段的迭代,旨在从头开始重新设计 COM/Energy。该设计代表了 COM/Energy 期望未来的共同愿景。
Developed under the assumption that the system has been destroyed overnight but that everything in its environment has survived, the preceding sections outlined COM/Energy's defining context in terms of stakeholders' expectations and business environment. Once this context was established, the design team began the next phase of iterations intended to redesign COM/Energy from a clean slate. The design represents a shared vision of COM/Energy's desired future.
尽管高效的能源分配是 COM/Energy 生存的先决条件,但这种承诺本身并不足以创造利益相关者真正想要的结果。面对现有特许经营缺乏增长和整个能源行业出现不确定性,COM/Energy 需要采取三管齐下的战略,以便探索和利用价值链各个维度(技术、产品和市场)上出现的最有利机会。这种多维战略将使 COM/Energy 能够有效地将其运营范围扩展到现有特许经营和监管框架之外。
Although efficient performance in energy distribution is a prerequisite to COM/Energy's viability, this commitment in and of itself will not be sufficient for creating the results the stakeholders truly desire. Facing lack of growth within the existing franchise and emerging uncertainty in the energy industry as a whole, COM/Energy is required to adopt a three-pronged strategy that will make it possible to explore and exploit the most favorable opportunities that present themselves on all dimensions of the value chain—technology, product, and market. Such a multidimensional strategy will enable COM/Energy to effectively extend its operational reach beyond the existing franchise and regulated framework.
基于这样一个有利的平台,整个系统将变得大于各部分之和。因此,在集成价值链的背景下,我们将根据以下三项活动来定义我们的战略:
Working from such an advantageous platform, the system as a whole will become greater than the sum of its parts. In the context of an integrated value chain, we will therefore define our strategy in terms of the following three activities:
由于现有特许经营权内显著增长的前景有限,而成功解决受监管业务中的混乱局面需要几年的深入改进,COM/Energy 将采取平行战略来探索和利用非监管市场的潜力。
Since the prospects for significant growth within the existing franchise are limited and the successful dissolution of the mess in the regulated businesses will require a few years of intensive improvements, COM/Energy will pursue a parallel strategy to explore and exploit the potentials of the nonregulated market.
成功的以客户为导向的维度的关键在于消除导致天然气和电力专业知识相互排斥的传统障碍。从定义上讲,以客户为导向的企业必须避免排他性标准化,这种标准化旨在满足那些适合特定能源狭窄范围的特定产品(例如,一个独立的天然气单元和一个独立的电力单元彼此独立工作,从而错失代表现实世界、以用户为导向和综合需求/问题的巨大机会)。
The key to a successful customer-oriented dimension is to remove the traditional barriers that have made gas and electricity expertise mutually exclusive. Customer-oriented businesses, by definition, must avoid exclusive standardization designed to meet only those specific offerings that fall comfortably within the narrow confines of an exclusive source of energy (e.g., an isolated gas unit and an isolated electricity unit working independently of each other, thus missing the vast opportunities representing real-world, user-oriented, and synthetic needs/problems).
为此,我们将有意识地利用价值链,转向用户特定的集成系统和服务,以解决未满足和潜在的客户需求。因此,我们将从综合优势出发,开辟传统业务方式无法实现的机会。我们将高度集中精力,不断开发各种综合能源服务和系统,以解决新兴的现实需求/问题,而不管所需投入的原始来源如何。
To this end, our utilization of the value chain will involve a deliberate shift toward user-specific integrated systems and services designed to solve unmet and latent customer requirements. We will, therefore, operate from a combined vantage point that opens up opportunities that had been closed to our conventional way of doing business. We will apply a highly concentrated effort to continually develop various integrated energy services and systems that address emerging real-world needs/problems irrespective of the original sources of required inputs.
我们至少打算建立两个商业实体。第一个实体将专注于住宅/商业能源服务,其中可能包括节能和能源管理产品和服务。第二个实体将专注于工业部门,提供能源管理、热电联产、经纪和其他服务。认识到需要在这些领域获得更多专业知识和进入新市场领域,这些商业实体将寻求合适的合作伙伴来开发这些机会。
At a minimum, we intend to establish two business entities. The first will concentrate on residential/commercial energy services, which may include conservation and energy management products and services. The second entity will focus on the industrial sector and provide energy management, cogeneration, brokerage, and other services. Recognizing the need for additional expertise in these areas and access to new market areas, these business entities will pursue appropriate partners in developing these opportunities.
• 继续从事能源业务。
• Remain in the energy business.
• 成为一个能够自我重塑的积极主动的组织。
• Be a proactive organization capable of reinventing itself.
• 利用机会为整体增值,从而为成员创造成长潜力(双赢关系)。
• Take advantage of opportunities that will add value to the whole and thus create the potential for its members to grow (a win/win relationship).
• 成为重新定义未来能源行业的先驱者之一,同时保持组织稳定性并最大限度降低风险。
• Be among the pioneers that will redefine the energy industry of the future, while maintaining organizational stability and minimizing risk.
• 成为我们股东的首选投资,确保他们获得安全且有回报的投资。
• Be the preferred investment for our shareholders, assuring them of a secure and rewarding investment.
• 创建规范、绩效衡量标准和激励措施,促进一种具有挑战性的创业文化,在这种文化中,人们乐于努力实现有价值的目标,为他们带来内在和外在的满足感。
• Create the norms, performance measures, and incentives that will promote a challenging entrepreneurial culture in which people will enjoy stretching to achieve worthwhile goals that give them both intrinsic and extrinsic satisfaction.
• 被同行视为值得效仿的模范组织。
• Be seen by peers as a model organization worthy of emulation.
• 通过让监管机构和其他利益相关者接受不同的、更好的经营方式,能够超越传统的经营框架。
• Be able to transcend the traditional frameworks of doing business by getting regulators and other stakeholders to buy into different and better ways of doing business.
• 树立“绿色”公司的积极公众形象。
• Project a positive public image as a “green” company.
• 能够尽早发现相关技术、运营模式以及客户需求和偏好即将发生的变化。
• Be able to detect, early on, imminent shifts in the relevant technologies, modes of operation, and customer needs and preferences.
• 确保新企业享有最大限度的创业自由,以获得竞争优势,而不受受监管企业特定规范和做法的影响。
• Make sure that the new businesses enjoy maximum entrepreneurial freedom to achieve competitive advantage immune from the spillover of norms and practices specific to the regulated businesses.
• 能够不断克服混乱(例如,帝国建设、疏远、等级制度、抵制变革、缺乏责任感)。
• Be able to constantly overcome the mess (e.g., empire building, alienation, hierarchies, resistance to change, lack of accountability).
• 将控制性质从监督转变为学习和预警。
• Change the nature of control from supervision to learning and early warning.
• 同时发挥集中与分散、一体化与差异化、依存与自主的优势。
• Simultaneously exploit the advantages of both centralization and decentralization, integration and differentiation, and interdependency and autonomy.
为了实现 COM/Energy 利益相关者的期望,设计者认识到采用集成价值链战略的必要性。该架构将定位于自由探索和利用技术、产品和市场维度上的新兴机会。这不仅将通过超越传统的天然气和电力运营分离来化解混乱局面,还将使 COM/Energy 能够提供系统解决方案,以满足优先客户未满足和潜在的需求。
To realize the expectations of COM/Energy's stakeholders, the designers recognize the necessity of employing an integrated value chain strategy. The architecture will be positioned to freely explore and exploit emerging opportunities along technology, product, and market dimensions. This not only will dissolve the mess, by transcending the traditional separations of gas and electricity operations, but will enable COM/Energy to offer systems solutions that will address unmet and latent needs of preferred customers.
该架构的组成部分包括执行办公室(由核心知识库支持的首席执行官)、受监管的业务部门(天然气和电力分配)、面向客户的业务部门(能源服务和系统)、面向技术/供应的业务部门(能源、天然气、蒸汽生产和存储)以及共享服务(服务公司和财务系统)。
The components of the architecture include an executive office (a CEO supported by a core knowledge pool), regulated business units (gas and electricity distribution), customer-oriented business units (energy services and systems), technology/supply-oriented business units (energy, gas, steam generation, and storage), and shared services (service company and financial systems).
除了受州和联邦法规约束的受监管企业外,该架构的所有其他单元都被视为绩效中心,预计
Aside from the regulated businesses, which are bound by state and federal regulations, all other units of the architecture are considered to be performance centers expected to
• 成为拥有明确收入来源的自给自足单位。
• Be self-sufficient units with explicit sources of income.
• 满足并超越资本成本。
• Meet and exceed the cost of capital.
• 产生根据以下公式衡量的价值:EVA = I(r − c),其中,EVA 代表经济增加值,I 代表投资,r 和 c 分别代表回报和资本成本。
• Produce values that are measured against the formula: EVA = I (r − c), where EVA stands for economic value added, I is investment, and r and c represent return and cost of capital correspondingly.
• 衡量标准不仅包括企业自身的盈利能力,还包括其对价值链其他成员盈利能力的贡献。
• Be measured not only on the basis of their own profitability but also on the contributions they make to the profitability of other members of the value chain.
• 以最低的竞争成本管理运营。绩效中心之间的关系部分由内部市场机制决定,这使得它们在供应商-客户关系的基础上进行交易。如果任何单位被迫以相对劣势向其他内部客户购买或销售产品,则该单位的机会成本将由施加约束的企业实体补偿。
• Manage operations at the lowest competitive cost. The relationships among the performance centers are determined, in part, by an internal market mechanism, which makes them conduct transactions on the basis of supplier–customer relationships. If any unit is made to buy from or sell to other internal customers at a comparative disadvantage, that unit's opportunity cost would be compensated by the corporate entity that imposes the constraint.
天然气和电力分销业务部门将构成 COM/Energy 价值链的第一个输出维度。它们将继续在受监管的环境中运营。所有迹象表明,在可预见的未来,天然气和电力的分销仍将受到监管。天然气和电力业务将代表特许经营权,仅包含必须以受监管的形式管理的活动。他们将利用现有特许经营权中未实现的潜力。
The gas and electricity distribution business units will constitute the first output dimension of COM/Energy's value chain. They will continue to operate within the regulated environment. All indications are that, for the foreseeable future, the distribution of natural gas and electricity will remain regulated. Gas and electricity businesses will represent the franchise and contain only those activities that must be managed in the regulated format. They will capitalize on the unrealized potentials within the existing franchise.
这两个部门将向内部董事会汇报。作为核心业务,它们将是完全独立的部门。它们将控制所有必要的活动,以帮助他们充分发挥特许经营的潜力。这些部门将完全遵守与受监管的能源分配有关的所有法律和要求。
These two units will report to an internal board of directors. As core businesses, they will be fully autonomous units. They will have control over all of the activities necessary to help them exploit the full potentials of the franchise. The units will fully abide with all the laws and requirements pertaining to regulated energy distribution.
天然气分销和电力分销是核心业务,将为 COM/Energy 提供稳定性。在可预见的未来,它们将成为发展其他价值链部门所必需的基础设施。这些业务部门将承担进一步识别、控制和化解混乱局面的责任和挑战。每个部门都将成为受监管行业中高效管理分销业务的典范。
The core businesses, gas distribution and electricity distribution, will provide COM/Energy's stability. For the foreseeable future they will be the infrastructure necessary for developing other units of the value chain. These business units will have the responsibility and the challenge of further identifying, containing, and dissolving their mess. Each will become a model of an efficiently managed distribution business in a regulated industry.
以客户为导向的业务部门、能源供应系统和能源管理服务将构成 COM/Energy 价值链的第二个输出维度。它们将在受监管的环境之外运作。
The customer-oriented business units, energy supply systems and energy management services, will constitute the second output dimension of COM/Energy's value chain. They will operate outside the regulated environment.
COM/Energy 作为天然气和电力控股公司所获得的经验使其对客户需求有了独特的理解,这些需求可以通过能源产品和服务的组合来满足。在天然气和电力部门的全力支持下,COM/Energy 将开发广泛的能源产品和服务,以补充其传统产品。这些服务将包括工业/商业热电联产、成套热电联产、现有发电的运营和维护以及住宅/商业能源管理服务。
The experience that COM/Energy has gained as a gas and electric holding company provides it with a unique understanding of customers' needs, which can be met by combinations of energy products and services. With the full support of the gas and electric segments, COM/Energy will develop a wide range of energy products and services to complement its traditional offerings. These services will encompass industrial/commercial cogeneration, packaged cogeneration, operation and maintenance of existing generation, and residential/commercial energy management services.
随着 20 世纪 80 年代监管改革和能源价格的快速上涨,利用热电联产满足能源需求变得越来越普遍。在美国各地,热电联产现在占总发电量的近 10%——在新英格兰,热电联产占发电量的 10% 以上。近年来,热电联产活动迅速扩大。从 1988 年到 1992 年,美国总发电量增长了 7.9%,而热电联产发电量增长了 74%。到 1992 年,热电联产的总市场规模已达到约 40 亿美元。热电联产应用可为客户提供 1-4 年的回报期和约 15-30% 的投资回报率。
With regulatory reform and rapidly escalating energy prices during the 1980s, the application of cogeneration to meet energy requirements became increasingly common. Throughout the United States, cogeneration now represents nearly 10% of total electricity production — in New England, cogeneration represents greater than 10% of electricity generation. In recent years, cogeneration activity has been expanding rapidly. From 1988 to 1992, total electricity generation in the United States increased 7.9% while cogenerated electricity increased 74%. By 1992, the total market for cogeneration had reached roughly $4 billion. Cogeneration applications can provide customers with a payback of 1–4 years and a return on investment of roughly 15–30%.
尽管热电联产市场正在成熟,但它已证明其适用于许多能源密集型行业,并且在可预见的未来可能会持续增长。公用事业在输电设施方面遇到的困难越来越多。因此,提供无需输电设施的本地化电源将变得越来越必要。这种分布式发电趋势才刚刚起步,热电联产是第一步商业化。然而,热电联产将是更大活动浪潮的开始,最终将包括燃料电池和光伏阵列等技术。
Although the market for cogeneration is maturing, it has proven its applicability in many energy-intensive industries and is likely to experience continued growth for the foreseeable future. Utilities are experiencing increased difficulties regarding transmission facilities. As a result, providing localized sources of power that obviate the need for transmission facilities will become increasingly necessary. This trend toward distributed generation is only in its infancy, with cogeneration being the first commercial step. However, cogeneration will be the beginning of a greater wave of activity that will ultimately include such technologies as fuel cells and photovoltaic arrays.
为了满足分布式能源发电的需求,能源供应系统业务部门将参与热电联产项目的商业和工业咨询、开发、服务和融资。该子公司将:
To meet the need for distributed energy generation, the energy supply systems business unit will be involved in commercial and industrial consulting, development, service, and financing for cogeneration projects. This subsidiary will:
• 提供咨询服务(可行性研究和评估)
• Offer consulting services (feasibility studies and evaluations)
• 担任开发商安装设备
• Act as a developer to install equipment
• 提供服务/维护合同
• Provide service/maintenance contracts
• 提供融资和租赁服务
• Provide financing and leasing services
虽然热电联产通常针对单厂场地,但它也适用于多个相关场地。工业园区提供了一个特别有吸引力的目标市场。该子公司将提供满足工业园区内公司所有能源相关需求的产品,包括电力、天然气和/或蒸汽。大型办公楼、大学和购物广场也存在类似的机会。
Although cogeneration is generally targeted to single-plant sites, it has applicability to multiple associated sites as well. Industrial parks offer a particularly attractive target market. This subsidiary will offer products that meet all the energy-related needs of the companies within an industrial park, including electricity, gas, and/or steam. Similar opportunities exist in large office complexes, universities, and shopping plazas.
这家能源供应系统子公司将成为 COM/Energy 多元化能源供应商(电力、天然气和蒸汽)家族的一员。热电联产将成为一项补充受监管子公司传统产品的服务。借助这一新的业务机会,COM/Energy 将实现其现有产品和服务产品之间的协同效应。参与热电联产市场将提供可与系统共享的专业知识,以便系统能够更好地了解特定市场部门的需求。
This energy supply systems subsidiary will become a member of the COM/Energy family of diversified energy suppliers (electricity, gas, and steam). Cogeneration will become a service that complements the traditional offerings of the regulated subsidiaries. With this new business opportunity, COM/Energy will achieve synergy between its current product and service offerings. Involvement in the cogeneration market will provide an expertise that can be shared with the system so that the system obtains a better insight into the needs of specific market sectors.
COM/Energy 的另一项新业务:能源管理服务业务部门也将实现协同效应。随着热电联产技术应用机会的探索,相关的能源效率改进机会也有可能被发现。能源管理服务子公司可以利用这些机会。同样,能源管理服务子公司可能会发现潜在客户可以从热电联产技术中受益的情况,并将此类信息传递给能源供应服务子公司。
Synergy will also be achieved with COM/Energy's other new business endeavor: an energy management services business unit. As opportunities for applying cogeneration technologies are explored, it is likely that related opportunities for energy efficiency improvements will be uncovered. These opportunities can then be capitalized upon by the energy management services subsidiary. Similarly, the energy management services subsidiary will likely uncover situations where potential customers could benefit from cogeneration technology and pass such information along to the energy supply services subsidiary.
拟议的子公司之间还可能产生其他协同效应。能源经纪子公司可以充当潜在热电联产客户的燃料供应商,提供天然气和石油和/或销售过剩电能。热电联产厂的运营和维护也将补充 COM/Energy 在 Canal 工厂和蒸汽设施方面的经验。
It is also possible that other synergies will arise between proposed subsidiaries. An energy brokerage subsidiary could act as a fuel supplier to potential cogeneration customers by providing natural gas and oil and/or marketing excess electrical energy. Cogeneration plant operation and maintenance will also complement COM/Energy's experience at the Canal plant and steam facilities.
能源供应系统子公司的业务结构将包括收购或合资。在后一种结构下,子公司可以充当总承包商和项目经理,而合作伙伴通常提供技术。
The business structure for the energy supply systems subsidiary will entail acquisitions or joint ventures. Under the latter structure, the subsidiary could act as prime contractor and project manager with the partner generally supplying its technology.
COM/Energy 的共享服务部门将为该非监管业务提供会计、法律和基本信息服务。这些服务将记入专门为此业务设立的单独会计科目表中,资金来自该业务的利润。该子公司还可以从系统外部采购服务。
The shared services unit of COM/Energy will provide accounting, legal, and basic information services to this nonregulated operation. These services will be charged to a separate chart of accounts set up specifically for this operation and will be funded from this operation's profits. The subsidiary may also procure services from outside the system.
除了能源供应系统子公司的“电表前”活动外,该公司还将开展“电表后”活动,为客户提供旨在节省公用事业费用的服务和产品。电力和天然气配送公司通常不会向客户提供新服务;他们只是提供千瓦时或英热单位。然而,随着放松管制的进展,新的服务将会诞生。
In addition to “before-the-meter” activities of the energy supply systems subsidiary, the company will engage in “after-the-meter” activities offering customers services and products designed to save money on utility services. The electric and gas distribution companies typically have not offered new services to customers; they have merely provided either kilowatt hours or BTUs. However, as deregulation progresses, new services will be created.
这些新服务已经提供给工业天然气客户,根据联邦能源管理委员会第 636 号命令,以前捆绑产品的运输和商品部分已经分开。这种分离使客户能够建立期货合约作为对冲能源成本的手段。同样,在电力行业,一旦按小时计价的电力开始流行,并且家用电器中出现了相应的技术,客户将能够根据当地公用事业公司每小时的价格信号来调节家用电器的使用。
These new services are already provided to industrial natural gas customers whereby the transportation and commodity portions of a previously bundled product have been separated with FERC Order 636. This separation has allowed customers to establish futures contracts as a means to hedge energy costs. Similarly, in the electric utility industry, once hourly pricing of electricity takes hold and the appropriate technology becomes available in appliances, customers will be able to regulate usage of appliances in the home based on hourly price signals from the local utility.
初步研究表明,能源管理系统和家庭自动化市场潜力巨大。调查显示,美国企业每年在商业建筑节能方面花费 70 亿美元。研究还报告称,到 2000 年,家庭自动化市场规模可能超过 35 亿美元。许多大型公用事业公司,如美国电力公司和南方公司,都预见到这一市场的巨大潜力,并已参与其中,成为先进能源管理系统的股权参与者和测试者。采用这种设备的试点项目在改善负荷管理和提高客户满意度方面取得了显著成果。通过与该市场中的技术参与者合作,该公司可以增加其非监管子公司的收益,同时做好准备,应对更激烈的竞争和对更好客户服务日益增长的需求。
Preliminary research indicates that the energy management systems and home automation markets offer great potential. Surveys show that U.S. business spends $7 billion on energy conservation in commercial buildings annually. Studies also report that the home automation market could exceed $3.5 billion by the year 2000. Many sizable utilities, such as American Electric Power and Southern Company, envision great potential for this market niche and have become involved as equity participants and testers of advanced energy management systems. Pilot projects with this equipment have yielded dramatic results in terms of improving load management and increasing customer satisfaction. By pairing with technology players in this marketplace, the company can increase earnings from its nonregulated subsidiaries while preparing itself to face the challenges of more aggressive competition and the growing need for better customer service.
除了提供新服务外,该子公司还将向电力和天然气配送区域内外的客户提供以下能源管理咨询服务:
In addition to offering new services, this subsidiary would also offer the following energy management consulting services to customers both inside and outside the electric and gas distribution territories:
• 商业及工业设施(包括公共及商业办公设施、学校、医院等)的审计及管理方案
• Audits and management programs for commercial and industrial facilities (including public and commercial office facilities, schools, hospitals, etc.)
• 能源会计方法和投资策略(包括可行性研究、回报方法以及税收抵免和补助计划的使用)
• Energy accounting methods and investment strategies (including feasibility studies, payback methodology, and use of tax credits and grant programs)
• 协助实施电工技术
• Assistance with implementing electrotechnologies
由于 COM/Electric 在需求侧管理领域拥有丰富的经验,因此大量的知识可能来自电力配送公司。共享服务实体将为该非监管实体提供会计、法律和基本信息服务。这些服务将记入专门为非监管实体设立的单独科目表中,并将从该实体的利润中支付。
Because COM/Electric has significant experience in the area of demand-side management, a great deal of knowledge could come from the electric distribution company. The shared services entity would provide accounting, legal, and basic information services to this nonregulated entity. These services would be charged to a separate chart of accounts set up specifically for the nonregulated entity and would be funded from this entity's profits.
通过建立能源管理服务子公司来推广这些能源利用产品和服务,COM/Energy 将定位于参与公用事业公司和客户之间这个新兴的行业。
By establishing an energy management services subsidiary to promote these energy utilization products and services, COM/Energy will position itself to participate in this newly created industry between the utility and the customer.
技术/供应导向的业务部门将构成 COM/Energy 价值链的第三个输出维度。在可能的范围内,它们将在受监管的环境之外运作。这一维度将代表涉及能源生产、转换和存储的所有组件、活动和业务。传统上,运河、液化天然气存储和蒸汽一直是受监管特许经营的一部分。但为了充分发挥它们的潜力,它们将在可能的情况下转移到价值链的非监管部分,在那里它们将被视为独立的业务。能源生产/供应中的业务部门如下。
The technology/supply-oriented business units will constitute the third output dimension of COM/Energy's value chain. To the extent possible, they will operate outside the regulated environment. This dimension will represent all of the components, activities, and businesses that involve the generation, conversion, and storage of energy. Traditionally, Canal, LNG storage, and steam have been part of the regulated franchise. But to exploit their full potential, they will be transferred, where possible, to the nonregulated part of the value chain, where they will be treated as independent businesses. The business units within energy generation/supply will be as follows.
Canal 是一家电力批发公司,为包括 COM/Energy 子公司在内的多家电力公司提供电力。这家电力分销公司的部分电力供应来自对多家公用事业电力设施的投资,包括 Seabrook 核电站,这些设施是作为收益组合的一部分进行管理的投资。Canal 还拥有并运营 Canal Unit 1。该机组向 Boston Edison、New England Power、Montaup Electric 和 Cambridge/Commonwealth Electric 出售电力。与该机组的现有合同将于 2001 年到期,届时 Canal 将拥有一座完全折旧的发电厂,这可能带来巨大的商机。
Canal is a wholesale electric company providing power to a number of electric utilities, including COM/Energy subsidiaries. A portion of the electric distribution company's supply comes from investments in a number of utility power facilities, including the Seabrook nuclear station, which are managed investments as part of a portfolio of earnings. Canal also owns and operates Canal Unit 1. This unit sells its power to Boston Edison, New England Power, Montaup Electric, and Cambridge/Commonwealth Electric. The existing contracts to this unit end in 2001, at which time Canal will have a fully depreciated power plant that may offer a significant business opportunity.
考虑到其他已完全折旧的设施的存在以及许多机组的资本和运营成本相对一致,新组建的电力供应商只有在燃料供应价格较低(与其他机组相比)或效率优势的情况下才能发挥作用。由于旧机组无法获得效率优势,Canal 正在与主要燃料供应商谈判建立潜在的商业联盟。为了迎接 2001 年,Canal 1 将采取独特的商业战略,以延长机组的使用寿命并向现有和新客户推销电力。为实现这一目标,Canal 将建立必要的商业伙伴关系,以具有竞争力的燃料供应制定基于市场的定价。
Recognizing the presence of other fully depreciated facilities and the fact that capital and operating costs are relatively consistent across many units, a newly structured power supplier can be effective only with a lower priced fuel supply (compared to other units) or an efficiency advantage. Since efficiency advantages cannot be captured with older units, Canal is negotiating a potential business alliance with major fuel suppliers. To prepare for 2001, Canal 1 will pursue a distinct business strategy to continue the life of the unit and market power to existing and new customers. To achieve this, Canal will enter into the necessary business partnerships to produce market-based pricing with a competitively priced fuel supply.
Canal 2 号机组由 Montaup 电力公司共同拥有,其发电量由 Montaup 和 Commonwealth/Cambridge 电力公司平分。Canal 2 号机组将继续按照现有合同供电至 2010 年。改用天然气后,2 号机组不仅可以降低排放量,还可以灵活地在石油和天然气之间即时切换。通过利用现有的石油储存设施并确保各种天然气供应,Canal 将有机会随着市场的发展,代理大量天然气、石油和电力。
Canal Unit 2 is jointly owned with Montaup Electric Company, and its capacity is split evenly between Montaup and Commonwealth/Cambridge Electric. Canal Unit 2 will continue to supply power under its existing contracts through 2010. With its conversion to natural gas, Unit 2 will not only lower its emissions, but will also have the flexibility to instantaneously switch between oil and natural gas. By utilizing the existing oil storage facilities and securing various natural gas supplies, Canal will have the opportunity to broker significant quantities of natural gas, oil, and electricity as markets develop.
Canal 虽然目前是特许经营业务的一部分,但最终将作为一个拥有客户和供应商关系的独立单位进行管理。作为一个独立单位,Canal 将负责管理其运营和相关成本,以满足市场预期。这一过渡的第一阶段将是建立一个项目合资企业,作为 Unit1 营销和重组的一部分,以获得长期客户合同。
Canal, although currently part of the franchise businesses, will eventually be managed as an autonomous unit with customer and supplier relationships. As an autonomous unit, Canal will be responsible for managing its operations and associated costs to meet market expectations. The first phase of this transition will be to establish a project venture as part of the marketing and reengineering of Unit1 to obtain extended-life customer contracts.
这家存储设施子公司现名为霍普金顿液化天然气公司,将在最寒冷的冬季继续向天然气分销公司供应天然气。鉴于放松管制的前景,霍普金顿液化天然气公司管理层将调查其他商业机会,包括液化服务营销、紧急备用服务和调峰服务。这些机会的发展取决于天然气分销公司继续将液化天然气用于自身目的的经济效益。
Now known as Hopkinton LNG, this storage facility subsidiary will continue to supply natural gas to the gas distribution company during the coldest winter months. Given the prospect of deregulation, Hopkinton LNG management will be investigating other business opportunities, which include the marketing of liquefaction services, emergency backup services, and peak shaving services. The development of these opportunities depends upon the economics of the gas distribution company's continued usage of LNG for its own purposes.
该子公司还在马萨诸塞州阿库什奈特拥有一个卫星气化工厂,并拥有额外的存储容量。霍普金顿工厂由空气产品和化学品公司根据长期合同运营和维护。阿库什奈特工厂由天然气配送人员运营和维护。
This subsidiary also owns a satellite vaporization plant in Acushnet, Massachusetts, with additional storage capacity. The Hopkinton facility is operated and maintained by Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., under a long-term contract. The Acushnet plant is operated and maintained by gas distribution personnel.
目前,蒸汽由剑桥电力公司的两家工厂 Kendall 和 Blackstone 通过四英里长的蒸汽供应和回流管道配送系统供应。作为一家非监管实体,该蒸汽公司将继续向波士顿和剑桥的商业和工业客户提供蒸汽,包括一家医院、一家博物馆、两所大学、一家制造商和一家基因研究人员。该子公司将发展为一个独立的实体,拥有自己的营销和技术人员。
Steam is currently supplied from two Cambridge Electric plants, Kendall and Blackstone, through a four-mile distribution system of steam supply and return piping. As a nonregulated entity, the steam company will continue to provide steam to commercial and industrial customers in Boston and Cambridge, including a hospital, a museum, two universities, a manufacturer, and a genetic researcher. This subsidiary will be developed as a separate entity with its own marketing and technical staff.
使用蒸汽的区域供热系统概念得到了马萨诸塞州的支持。在 1993 年的能源计划中,该州建议支持区域能源系统和热力导向型热电联产。凭借该州的支持以及通过运用其在运营 Kendall 和 Blackstone 热电联产厂方面获得的专业知识,该公司将促进通过其能源供应系统子公司建立的其他潜在区域供热系统的发展。
The concept of district heating systems using steam has received the backing of the state of Massachusetts. In its 1993 Energy Plan, the state recommended the support of district energy systems and thermally oriented cogeneration. With this state support and by applying the expertise it has gained in operating its Kendall and Blackstone cogeneration plants, the company will foster the development of other potential district heating systems established through its energy supply systems subsidiary.
此外,通过与麻省理工学院和波士顿热能公司(拥有相邻蒸汽系统的组织)建立业务合作伙伴关系,该公司可以建立与现有区域供热系统的互连,并将其客户群扩展到当前地理区域之外。目前的蒸汽公司系统对客户来说比波士顿热能系统更经济,因为后者不包含冷凝水回路。最后,对 Blackstone 工厂的涡轮机改造还可以提供廉价的增量电力,供能源经纪子公司进行经纪。
Also, through business partnerships with MIT and Boston Thermal (organizations with contiguous steam systems), the company could establish interconnections to existing district heating systems and expand its customer base beyond the current geographic area. The current steam company system is economically more efficient for the customer than the Boston Thermal system because the latter contains no condensate loop. Last, turbine modifications to the Blackstone plant could also offer inexpensive incremental power to be brokered by the energy brokerage subsidiary.
该行业的两个主要发展可能是建立网络和进入能源市场(包括购买和销售)。这些活动将成为 COM/Energy 价值链不可或缺的一部分。为了探索这些机会,将开发其他业务部门,包括能源经纪和国际业务。在成立这些部门之前,将评估这些市场的机会。
Two major developments in the industry will likely be networking and access to energy markets (both buying and selling). These activities will be integral to COM/Energy's value chain. To explore these opportunities, other business units, including energy brokerage and international operations, will be developed. Before these units are formed, opportunities in these markets will be evaluated.
能源经纪是一个正在不断发展的重大机遇领域。多年来,石油一直以商品形式购买,并附带期货期权。随着 436 号和 636 号命令的实施,天然气也可以以商品形式购买。同样,随着自发电作为主要电力来源的引入,电力将在不久的将来作为商品购买。随着这些变化,金融工具现在被引入作为建立短期和长期定价选项的一种手段。期货合约的引入是市场需要更大程度的能源价格确定性的结果。
Brokerage of energy is a major area of opportunity that is evolving. For many years, oil has been purchased on a commodity basis with associated futures options. With the implementation of Orders 436 and 636, natural gas can also be purchased on a commodity basis. Similarly, with the introduction of self-generation as a major source of power, electricity will be purchased as a commodity in the very near future. With these changes, financial instruments are now being introduced as a means to establish short- and long-term pricing options. The introduction of futures contracts is the result of the markets' need for greater certainty regarding energy prices.
随着石油、天然气和电力对冲的利用,新产品将推出以满足客户需求。这些产品将成为市场需求,帮助公用事业公司和客户最大程度降低价格风险。此外,燃料和电力期权的结合将允许合同创新,从而改变工业和商业市场。
With the utilization of oil, gas, and electricity hedges, new products will be launched to meet customer needs. These products will be required in the marketplace as a way for utilities and customers to minimize price risks. In addition, the coupling of fuel and electricity options will allow for contract innovations that will change the industrial and commercial markets.
COM/Energy 是石油、天然气和电力的主要购买者和供应商。为了在未来有效地开展业务,它将参与期货市场。考虑到系统控制的众多物理能源选择(即运河 2 号机组油/气互换性、液化天然气储存、多种燃料供应合同、石油储存、天然气供应和运输权),能源经纪业务代表着巨大的商机。
COM/Energy is a major purchaser and supplier of oil, natural gas, and electricity. To effectively carry out its business in the future, it will be involved in futures markets. Recognizing the multitude of physical energy options that the system controls (i.e., Canal Unit 2 oil/gas interchangeability, LNG storage, multiple fuel supply contracts, oil storage, natural gas supply and transportation rights), the brokerage of energy represents a significant business opportunity.
能源经纪业务将服务于价值链的所有部门。该子公司将从事石油、电力和天然气经纪业务。该部门将协调和管理所有必要的活动,以开发受监管实体之外的能源销售机会。在电力市场,该子公司将充当 Canal 1 和其他单位生产的低成本电力的电力营销商。在天然气市场,该实体将为热电联产客户、发电厂和其他特定客户采购天然气。
Energy brokerage will serve all the units of the value chain. This subsidiary will be engaged in oil, electricity, and natural gas brokerage. The unit will coordinate and manage all activities necessary to develop energy sales opportunities outside of those that must be kept within the regulated entities. In the electricity market, the subsidiary will act as a power marketer of the low-cost power generated from Canal 1 and other units. In the natural gas market, the entity will procure natural gas for cogeneration customers, power generation, and other select customers.
在石油市场,该子公司将利用各种石油存储方案和合同来满足发电需求。最后,该业务部门将充当进入投机性市场、超出正常范围或现有业务部门不熟悉的市场的准入机制。
In the oil market, the subsidiary will utilize various oil storage options and contracts to meet power generation requirements. Finally, this business unit will serve as the access mechanism into markets that are speculative, out of normal reach, or unfamiliar to existing business units.
能源市场正变得越来越全球化——欧洲、远东和拉丁美洲发生的事件对美国能源市场有直接影响。多年来,石油行业一直如此,而天然气和电力等其他能源市场也越来越成为常态。无论是行业重组(英国电力市场)还是跨境交易(加拿大天然气),世界各地的事件都直接影响或左右着国内能源行业的未来。因此,COM/Energy 不应将视角局限于美国,而应密切关注全球发生的事件和技术,这一点越来越重要。
Energy markets are becoming increasingly global in nature — events in Europe, the Far East, and Latin America have direct consequences for energy markets in the United States. This has been true in the oil industry for years and is becoming more the norm in other energy markets, including gas and electricity. Whether in the form of industry restructuring (British electricity markets) or cross-border transactions (Canadian natural gas), events throughout the world are directly affecting, or influencing the future of, domestic energy industries. As a result it is increasingly important that COM/Energy not limit its perspective to the United States, but rather keep a watchful eye on events and technologies evolving around the globe.
在这方面,国际运营部门将负责监测和评估北美以外能源市场的趋势。该部门将不断寻找方法,将世界其他地区的新想法运用到其他 COM/能源业务部门。此外,该部门将成为未来海外业务的垫脚石,利用其他 COM/能源业务部门的能力。
In this vein, the international operations unit will be responsible for monitoring and evaluating trends in energy markets outside North America. This unit will continually search for ways to leverage new ideas from other parts of the world into the other COM/Energy business units. Additionally, this unit will serve as the stepping stone for future overseas ventures that capitalize on competencies resident within other COM/Energy business units.
COM/Energy 已经与其他国家(委内瑞拉和加拿大)的组织建立了联盟。国际运营部门将继续在全球能源市场寻找和建立进一步的联盟。无论是利用美国以外市场的能力,还是利用美国国内新兴的全球趋势,国际运营部门在其开展的任何业务中都将首先依赖合作伙伴关系。
Already, COM/Energy has established alliances with organizations based in other countries (Venezuela and Canada). The international operations unit will continue to seek out and create further alliances in global energy markets. Whether leveraging a competency in a market outside the United States or capitalizing on an emerging global trend within the United States, the international operations unit will depend initially upon partnerships in any ventures it undertakes.
共享服务由服务公司和财务系统业务部门组成。共享服务与其他部门之间的交易将由内部市场机制管理,类似于自由经济中规范客户与供应商关系的规则。内部市场界面的一些实际意义如下:
Shared services consists of service company and financial systems business units. The transactions between the shared services and other units will be governed by an internal market mechanism, analogous to the discipline that regulates customer–supplier relations in a free economy. Some practical implications of an internal market interface are as follows:
• 如果任何部门发现可以从其他地方以更低的价格购买服务,则只有在给予内部部门公平的机会使其价格具有竞争力后,才允许其外包。共享服务必须成为首选的先进且具有成本效益的提供商。
• If any unit finds that it can buy services cheaper elsewhere, it will be allowed to outsource only after it has given the internal unit a fair chance to make its prices competitive. The shared services will have to become the state-of-the-art and cost-effective provider of choice.
• 如果业务部门(无论是否受监管)选择外包其需求,他们仍将必须支付公司办公室固定成本的相应份额,这些成本原本会分配给共享服务,直到这些成本被消除。这笔费用将作为内部税向他们征收。因此,如果可变成本和内部税的组合足以支付相应固定成本,那么将决定寻找替代供应来源。
• If the business units, regulated or otherwise, choose to outsource their needs, they will still be bound to pay their proportional share of the corporate office's fixed costs, which would have been allocated to the shared services until these costs can be eliminated. This charge will be levied on them as an internal tax. Therefore, the decision to seek an alternative source of supply will be made if the combination of variable cost and internal tax to cover the proportional fixed cost justifies the trade-off.
服务公司打算将自己从一个在成本加成环境中为其他部门提供支持服务的间接费用中心转变为一个可行、有竞争力、最先进的绩效中心,在创造利润的同时为价值链其他成员的成功做出积极贡献。服务公司的转型取决于以下核心竞争力的发展:
The service company intends to transform itself from an overhead center, engaged in providing support services to other units operating in a cost plus environment, to a viable, competitive, and state-of-the-art performance center generating profit while making positive contributions to the success of other members of the value chain. The transformation of the service company is contingent upon the development of the following core competencies:
• 默认情况下,所有内部客户单位愿意保留或者有兴趣承担的服务都会发布给他们。
• By default, all services that the internal customer units are willing to keep or are interested in assuming will be released to them.
• 公司政策相关活动将移交给 COM/Energy System 的执行办公室。
• Corporate policy-related activities will be relinquished to the executive office of COM/Energy System.
服务公司将与 COM/Energy 分离所有涉及向其提供公司控制、监控和审计功能的活动。但是,与任何其他客户一样,COM/Energy System 的公司办公室也可以从服务公司购买服务。
The service company will divorce all activities that involve providing COM/Energy with corporate control, monitoring, and auditing functions. Like any other customer, however, the corporate office of COM/Energy System may buy services from the service company.
金融系统将在实现价值链中发挥关键作用。它将充当系统的内部投资中心,为企业提供实现生存所需的重要种子资金和初始杠杆。它将有效地满足所有业务部门的资本和现金流需求。利用 COM/Energy 的金融资源,金融系统将继续发展与银行家和其他机构的关系,以加强系统在启动新项目和/或扩展现有项目方面的财务能力,从而进一步实现价值链的潜力。
Financial systems will play a critical role in realizing the value chain. It will act as the system's in-house investment center, and provide the businesses with the vital seed money and initial leverage that they need to achieve viability. It will effectively serve the capital and the cash-flow needs of all the business units. Leveraging COM/Energy's financial resources, financial systems will continue to develop relations with bankers and other institutions to reinforce the system's financial capacity in launching new projects and/or expanding the existing ones to further realize the potential of the value chain.
除了已经成熟并建立起来的两大核心业务外,其他业务部门也需要一段时间的精心关注和培育才能实现可行性。执行办公室的职责是在管理整个价值链的同时执行这一孵化功能。为此,执行办公室负责创建以下三个关键流程:
Aside from the two core businesses that are already mature and well established, other business units will need a period of careful attention and nurturing before they achieve viability. The executive office's responsibility is to conduct this incubation function while managing the entire value chain. To do this, the executive office is responsible for creating the following three critical processes:
自下而上的混乱表述将识别和定义相互关联的变量集以及二阶机器,如果不拆除,二阶机器将使系统按照其当前方式运行,从而挫败引入理想变化的努力。混乱表述将向上移动,然后每个级别将以更高级别的系统作为其环境来表述其混乱。
The bottom-up mess formulation will identify and define the interrelated set of variables, as well as the second-order machine, which, unless dismantled, makes the system behave the way it does and thus frustrates efforts to introduce desirable changes. Mess formulation will move upward, whereupon each level will formulate its mess by taking the higher level system as its environment.
自上而下的设计将假设系统(需要重新设计的单元)已被破坏,但其环境(它所属的更大系统)仍保持完整。设计活动将向下进行,然后每一层都将以更高级别的设计作为其环境来重新设计自身。
The top-down design will assume that the system (the unit to be redesigned) has been destroyed but that its environment (the larger system of which it is a part) has remained intact. The design activity will move downward, whereupon each level will redesign itself by taking the higher level design as its environment.
• 减少周期时间
• Decrease cycle time
• 消除浪费
• Eliminate waste
• 提高灵活性
• Improve flexibility
• 提高质量
• Increase quality
为了履行延迟、协同和吞吐量流程的责任,执行办公室将配备一个核心知识库。核心知识库将成为系统的专业知识中心,开发和传播整个价值链中的最先进知识。执行办公室的所有基本职能都将由专业人员在专业知识库中工作并以跨学科的方式开展具体项目。知识库中的每个成员都可以参与多个项目。这些项目的主要成果包括创建初创企业、提高现有运营效率以及设计衡量、奖励和预警系统。产生全系统的“后备力量”和培育创业文化是这些企业活动的副产品之一。
To discharge the responsibility for latency, synergy, and throughput processes, the executive office will be equipped with a core knowledge pool. The core knowledge pool will be the system's center of expertise that develops and disseminates state-of-the-art knowledge throughout the value chain. All the essential functions of the executive office will be carried out by professionals who operate in pools of expertise and work in an interdisciplinary manner on specific projects. Each member of the pool can be involved in more than one project. The main outputs of these projects include creation of startup businesses, improvement of existing operations' effectiveness, and design of measurement, reward, and early warning systems. Generating system-wide “bench strength” and fostering an entrepreneurial culture are among the by-products of these corporate activities.
核心知识库将由一组精选的顶尖专家组成,他们将在所有活动中轮换。他们将从内部企业临时或永久抽调,并从外部来源招募或签约,为系统基因库的丰富性和多样性做出贡献。最初,核心知识库的核心将由设计团队成员组成,他们将参与新架构设计细节的开发。这些活动将提供一个通过设计学习、通过实践学习和边学边赚的环境。核心知识成员将在旨在提供集成解决方案的项目团队中提供他们的专业知识。
The core knowledge pool will be staffed by a select group of top-notch experts who will rotate among all activities. They will be drawn, temporarily or permanently, from internal businesses and recruited or contracted from external sources to contribute to the richness and variety of the system's gene pool. Initially, the nucleus of the core knowledge pool will consist of the design team members who will be involved in the development of design details for the new architecture. These activities will provide an environment for learning by designing, learning by doing, and earning while learning. Core knowledge members will offer their expertise in the context of project teams designed to produce integrated solutions.
核心知识库还将负责创建共同语言,并充当加强组织学习的中心。组织学习将包括知识的相互交流和人员的相互交流。没有新专业人员会先通过核心知识库进行引导,否则他们无法进入系统。
The core knowledge pool will also be responsible for creating a common language and acting as a center to reinforce organizational learning. Organizational learning will include reciprocal traffic of knowledge and mutual exchange of people. No new professional will enter the system without first being initiated through the core knowledge pool.
核心知识库的成员将对环境趋势、技术发展和不断变化的客户需求有深入的了解。他们将在模块化跨学科团队中工作,并通过项目管理机制,被分配到其他共享服务部门进行系统开发和/或担任直线管理角色执行特殊任务。核心知识库还将负责开发吞吐量系统、目标成本、测量和奖励系统以及内部市场机制的模型。
Members of the core knowledge pool will have a good insight into environmental trends, technological developments, and changing customer needs. They will operate in modular cross-disciplinary teams and, through the mechanism of project management, may be assigned to other shared services for systems development and/or to line-management roles for carrying out special missions. The core knowledge pool will also be responsible for developing models for the throughput system, target costing, the measurement and reward system, and an internal market mechanism.
以下描述详细阐述了学习和控制系统的本质。该系统强调了 COM/Energy 的新授权概念,将与设计所需的规格和 COM/Energy 管理的首选风格兼容。该系统将把控制的性质从“监督”转变为“学习”,将权力的性质从“权力”转变为“权力”。虽然学习和控制是单个系统中高度相关的方面,但为了便于理解,下面将分别描述每个方面。
The following description elaborates on the essence of a learning and control system. The system, which underlines COM/Energy's new concept of empowerment, will be compatible with the design's desired specifications and the preferred style of COM/Energy's management. The system will change the nature of control from “supervision” to “learning” and the nature of authority from “power-over” to “power-to.” Although learning and control are highly interrelated aspects of a single system, each aspect is described separately below to facilitate understanding.
有效控制本质上涉及权力的重复。如果决策过程而非单个决策者成为控制对象,就会实现权力的重复。当决策者集体形成对决策标准的共同理解和所有权时,就会发生这种情况。
Effective control involves, essentially, duplication of power. Duplication of power will be achieved if the decision process, rather than the individual decision makers, is the subject of control. This will happen when decision makers collectively develop a shared understanding and ownership of decision criteria.
决策标准定义了决策制定的规则。决策本身是决策规则在具体情况下的应用。决策标准与决策本身在操作上的区别在于,决策标准中存在一定程度的自由度。至少缺少一个自由度实际上就将决策标准转化为决策。
Decision criteria define the rules of decision making. Decisions themselves are applications of the decision rule to specific situations. What operationally distinguishes decision criteria from decisions per se is the existence of some degree of freedom in decision criteria. The absence of at least one degree of freedom virtually converts the decision criteria to decisions.
在公司层面,由CEO和所有直接下属组成的管理委员会将成为学习与控制系统制度化的载体,核心知识库将为系统的设计和实施提供技术支持。
At the corporate level, the management committee, consisting of the CEO and all direct reports, will be the vehicle for institutionalizing the learning and control system. In this case, the core knowledge pool will provide the technical support for designing and operationalizing the system.
• 培养会员的创业能力和意愿,使他们能够摆脱过去的规范(即在成本加成监管环境中运营的间接费用中心的规范)而获得竞争优势。
• Cultivating members' ability and desire to behave entrepreneurially and to achieve competitive advantage free from the norms of the past (i.e., those of an overhead center operating in a cost plus regulated environment).
• 将组织的特征从行动管理转变为互动管理。
• Shifting the character of the organization from management of actions to management of interactions.
• 利用新兴机会为整体增值,为成员创造成长潜力。
• Taking advantage of the emerging opportunities that will add value to the whole, creating the potential for members to grow.
• 创建规范、绩效衡量标准和激励措施,鼓励人们坚持精简、简单、灵活的组织。
• Creating the norms, performance measures, and incentives that will motivate people to stay the course as a lean, simple, and flexible organization.
• 展现始终如一的客户关注度和产品/市场导向。
• Demonstrating an unfailing customer focus and product/market orientation.
• 通过在组织的各个层面上将权力与责任相匹配以及保持正式和非正式组织的“同步”来促进授权。
• Fostering empowerment by matching authority with responsibility at all levels of the organization and keeping formal and informal organization “in synch.”
• 将控制性质从监督转向学习和预警。
• Shifting the nature of control from supervision to learning and early warning.
第 11 章 开利公司
Chapter froteen. Carrier Corporation
开利面临的挑战是创建一个由 90 多个自主运营部门组成的系统。问题是如何整合和区分全球运营部门,使其既集中又分散。开利必须振兴其核心技术,管理与遍布全球的半自主制造部门的互动,并在许多竞争激烈的市场中保持成本竞争力,尽管拥有庞大的老化分销商网络,这些分销商不愿意了解新技术的影响。本文件总结了基于目标成本和在链条各个层面交付价值(收益/成本)这一崇高理念的第一次设计迭代。该过程从定义链条末端(最终用户)的收益开始,然后向后追溯到制造商。
The challenge for Carrier was to create a system out of an aggregate of more than 90 autonomous operations. The question was how to integrate and differentiate a global operation so it could be both centralized and decentralized at the same time. Carrier had to revitalize its core technology, manage its interactions with a patchwork of semi-autonomous manufacturing units spread all over the world, and become cost competitive in many highly competitive markets, despite having a huge network of aging distributors who were unwilling to learn the implications of new technology. This document summarizes the first iteration of design based on the noble notion of target costing and delivery of value (benefits/costs) at all levels of the chain. The process starts by defining benefits at the end of the chain (the end user) and working backward to the manufacturer.
我有机会与开利公司合作,当时麻省理工学院的汤姆·李教授和杰拉尔德·威尔逊邀请我为开利公司当时的首席执行官卡尔·克拉佩克做演讲。他们告诉我,我会得到一整天的报酬,但如果克拉佩克先生打断我打电话,我就认为演讲结束了。虽然这看起来有点尴尬,但不知何故却挑战了我。奇怪的是,演讲进行了十五分钟后,卡尔想打电话。我收拾好文件,以为会议结束了,但令我惊讶的是,他问我能否给他十分钟时间,让他的几个同事加入我们。他想让他们听听我刚才说的话。一整天的演讲为开利带来了一份合同和一个重新设计项目。
I got the opportunity to work with Carrier Corporation when Professor Tom Lee and Gerald L. Wilson of MIT asked me to make a presentation to Karl J. Krapek, then the CEO of Carrier Corporation. I was told that I would be paid for the full day, but that if Mr. Krapek interrupted me to make a phone call I should assume that the presentation was over. Although this seemed a little awkward, it somehow challenged me. Oddly enough, fifteen minutes into the presentation, Karl wanted to make a phone call. I collected my papers, assuming the session was over, but much to my surprise he asked me if I could give him ten minutes to get a few of his colleagues to join us. He wanted them to hear what I had just said. A full-day presentation led to a contract and a redesign project for Carrier.
开利面临的挑战是要创建一个由 90 多个自主运营部门组成的系统。问题是如何整合和区分全球运营部门,使其既集中又分散。开利必须重振其核心技术,管理与遍布全球的半自主制造部门的互动,并在许多竞争激烈的市场中保持成本竞争力,尽管其庞大的分销商网络老化且不愿意了解新技术的影响。
The challenge for Carrier was to create a system out of an aggregate of more than 90 autonomous operations. The question was how to integrate and differentiate a global operation so it could be both centralized and decentralized at the same time. Carrier had to revitalize its core technology, manage its interactions with a patchwork of semi-autonomous manufacturing units spread all over the world, and become cost competitive in many highly competitive markets, despite having a huge network of aging distributors who were unwilling to learn the implications of new technology.
本文档总结了由 Karl J. Krapek 及其下属组成的 15 名设计团队在 1992 年第四季度的几次会议中完成的设计。INTERACT 的 Ali Geranmayeh 是我在这个项目中的同事。
This document summarizes the design produced by a 15-member design team consisting of Karl J. Krapek and his direct reports in several sessions during the fourth quarter of 1992. Ali Geranmayeh from INTERACT was my associate in this project.
这是一个理想化的设计。目前,其内容尚处于试验阶段,可能会发生变化。实施此设计需要规划。由于企业环境的变化和战略的转变,我们并未尝试实施此设计。尽管如此,它代表了基于 Carrier 最初意图的最先进的设计。
This is an idealized design. Its content, at this stage, is tentative and subject to change. Implementation of this design requires planning. Because of changes in the corporate environment and a shift in strategy, implementation of this design was not attempted. Nevertheless, it represents a state-of-the-art design based on Carrier's original intent.
开利不仅仅是一家设备制造商。我们是气候控制系统的设计者、生产商和经销商。我们在世界不同地区拥有价值链的不同部分。然而,无论所有权如何,我们都必须了解价值链各个层面的需求和愿望。
Carrier is not just a manufacturer of equipment. We are designers, producers, and distributors of climate control systems. We own different parts of the value chain in different parts of the world. Regardless of ownership, however, we must understand the desires and needs at various levels of the chain.
从开利的角度来看,价值链中的所有参与者,从生产商到最终用户,都被视为客户。他们可分为以下几类:
From Carrier's perspective, all the actors and participants in the value chain, from the producer to the end user, are considered customers. They may be classified as follows:
• 分销商
• Distributors
• 经销商
• Dealers
• 咨询工程师
• Consulting Engineers
• 承包商
• Contractors
• 零售商
• Retailers
• 最终用户
• End users
我们必须在链条的各个层面提供价值(效益/成本)。但我们必须从链条末端(最终用户)开始定义效益,然后再向后追溯到制造商。价值来自整体包装:
We must deliver value (benefits/costs) at all levels of the chain. But we must start defining benefits at the end of the chain (the end user) and work our way backward to the manufacturer. Value comes from the total package:
• 表现
• Performance
• 价格
• Price
• 服务
• Service
• 安装
• Installation
了解客户的潜在需求和愿望可以为最终用户创造价值带来重大机会。
Significant opportunities for creating value for the end user exist in understanding the latent needs and desires of customers.
• 出现强大的(独立)零部件供应商——其规模庞大、业务范围集中,最终能够控制构成最终产品成本、技术和差异化基础的关键零部件。作为终端产品市场的潜在竞争对手,它们也构成威胁。
• Emergence of strong (independent) component suppliers —their large scale and focused scope give them the capability to eventually control key components that comprise much of the cost, technology, and basis for differentiation of final products. They also pose a threat as potential competitors in the end-products market.
• 出现了“简单”的竞争对手,提供极低的价格。这些公司技术含量低,成本低,运营灵活精简。
• Emergence of “no frills” competitors offering very low prices. These are low-technology, low-cost companies with nimble and lean operations.
• 日本竞争对手将运营效率与高科技产品相结合。他们可能的策略是:
• Japanese competitors combine operational effectiveness with high-technology products. Their likely strategy will be to:
• 集中于低端市场(增长型行业)。
• Concentrate on the lower end of the market (a growth sector).
• 提供易于使用、功能齐全且几乎不需要维护的套件。
• Offer easy-to-use, fully engineered packages requiring little maintenance.
• 绕过分销商,直接向零售商销售。
• Sell directly to retailers, bypassing the distributors.
• 然后转向更大的产品,依靠工程师和建筑师来销售。
• Then move up to larger products, relying on engineers and architects to sell.
• 电子控制的集成正成为必须。
• Integration of electronic controls is becoming a must.
• 环境问题
• Environmental concerns
• 大型市场成熟,新兴市场涌现
• Maturation of large markets and emergence of new ones
• 顾客的歧视和差异化日益增强
• Increasing discrimination and differentiation by customers
• 竞争全球化
• Globalization of competition
• 小型化(产品尺寸、材料重量和体积)
• Miniaturization (size of products, material weight and bulk)
• 新技术(例如热交换和热传递)
• New technologies (e.g., in heat exchange and transfer)
• 无风管分体机改变了传统的价值链结构
• Duct-free splits change the traditional structure of the value chain
• 送货
• Delivery
• 成本
• Cost
• 尺寸
• Size
• 上市时间
• Time to market
• 服务
• Service
• 分配
• Distribution
• 世界一流的制造工艺
• World-class manufacturing processes
我们将在从供应商到最终用户的整个供应链中创造财富。我们负责创造双赢局面,以化解供应链各个层级参与者之间的冲突。我们对整个系统负全部责任,直至最终用户。Carrier 品牌为产品提供支持,为整个供应链提供保障。即使我们不拥有供应链的各个部分,即使产品是自有品牌,我们也能保证客户购买的产品(产品和服务)正常运行。没有借口。
We will create wealth throughout the chain from the supplier to the end user. We take responsibility for creating win/win situations to dissolve conflict among players at various levels of the chain. We take total responsibility for the entire system all the way to the end user. The Carrier name backs the product, guaranteeing it all the way down the chain. Even if we do not own pieces of the chain, and even if the product is a private label, we guarantee proper functioning of what the customer buys (product and service). No excuses.
• 我们的承诺是让客户完全满意。
• Our commitment is to total customer satisfaction.
• 我们重视通过知识实现卓越。我们提倡对无能的零容忍。
• We value excellence through knowledge. We promote intolerance of incompetence.
• 我们致力于明确传达交通规则和绩效期望。
• We are committed to providing clearly communicated rules of the road and expectations of performance.
• 我们将成为核心技术领域无可争议的领先者。
• We will be undisputed leaders in core technologies.
• 我们将成为一个互相支持、互相依存的系统。
• We will be a mutually supportive interdependent system.
• 我们将对我们的员工、分销商和经销商进行投资。
• We will invest in our employees, distributors, and dealers.
• 我们将影响这个行业。
• We will influence the industry.
• 没有人会因为工厂关闭、部门重组或市场衰退等情况而失去开利的工作。
• No one will lose his/her job at Carrier as a result of circumstance, plant closings, departmental restructuring, or market downturns.
本节将回答三个主要问题:
Three main questions are to be answered in this section:
1. 我们要解决谁的问题?
1. Whose problems are we trying to solve?
2.我们为他们提供什么解决方案?
2. What solutions are we providing to them?
3. 我们将如何向有问题的人提供解决方案?
3. How will we deliver the solution to those with the problem?
第一个问题涉及市场细分,第二个问题涉及产品线供应,第三个问题涉及访问机制。可以根据这三个维度形成的立方体来理解业务。下一节将更详细地讨论每个维度。
The first question deals with market segmentation, the second with product line offerings, and the third with access mechanisms. The business can be understood in terms of the cube formed by these three dimensions. Each dimension is considered in more detail in the following section.
我们将使用以下标准来决定是否参与该产品线的某个特定部分:
We will use the following criteria for deciding whether to participate in a particular segment of the product line:
• 该产品是否符合全球气候控制领导地位的要求?
• Is the product a requirement for global leadership in climate control?
• 从战略角度看,该产品是否能帮助我们更有效地竞争?(战略考虑可能是防御性的,比如通过向我们的分销商/经销商提供广泛的产品线来保持他们的忠诚度;也可能是进攻性的,比如阻止竞争对手追逐我们的分销商/经销商,利用我们的分销渠道销售他人生产的产品,或者通过规模经济和范围经济来降低成本。)
• Will the product help us compete more effectively from a strategic point of view? (Strategic concerns may be defensive, such as helping to keep our distributors/dealers loyal to us by providing them with a broad line of products; or offensive, such as discouraging competitors from going after our distributors/dealers, utilizing our distribution channel to move products made by others, or reducing costs due to economies of scale and scope.)
• 是否有机会利用我们的资产?我们有时会选择性地参与那些没有长期战略优势但有利用我们资产机会的领域。我们不会对此类领域进行新的投资。
• Are there opportunities for utilizing our assets? From time to time we may selectively choose to participate in segments where there is no long-term strategic advantage but opportunities for utilizing our assets. We will not make new investments in such segments.
• 这是扩大产品线广度的机会吗?广泛的产品范围对我们很重要,因为 (1) 它有助于我们赢得并维持分销网络的忠诚度,(2) 它有助于我们利用我们的技术并降低成本。此外,广泛的产品线是防止较小竞争对手将我们从各个细分市场中“挤出”的重要防御措施,它有助于在经济低迷时期支持经销商和分销商。财务实力雄厚且忠诚的分销网络是潜在竞争对手进入市场的重大障碍。
• Is this an opportunity to broaden the breadth of the line? A wide range of products is important to us because (1) it helps us win and maintain the loyalty of our distribution network and (2) it helps us leverage our technology and reduce our costs. In addition, a broad product line is an important defense against smaller competitors “niche-ing” us out of various market segments, and it helps support dealers and distributors in down cycles. A financially strong and loyal distribution network is a significant barrier to entry for would-be competitors.
当前行业现状中的以下障碍为产品/服务的提供提供了重要的机会:
The following obstructions in the current state of the industry provide significant opportunities for product/service offerings:
• 气候控制的基本问题没有得到很好的解决:大型建筑中的人们要么太热要么太冷,并且他们无法轻松地操纵控制装置;在住宅建筑中,通风会打扰人们,并且脖子僵硬的情况很常见。
• The basic problem of climate control is not solved very well: people in large buildings are either too hot or too cold and they cannot easily manipulate the controls; in residential buildings the draft bothers people and stiff necks are common.
• 我们与控制影响气候控制系统整体性能的建筑主要要素的其他参与者(隔热材料、窗户、建筑材料、建筑师等)之间没有任何整合或合作(在汽车方面,气候控制人员必须与玻璃,特别是挡风玻璃,制造商密切合作)。
• There is no integration or cooperation between us and other actors controlling major elements of the building that affect the overall performance of the climate control system — insulation, windows, building materials, architects, and so on (in automobiles, climate control people must work very closely with glass, especially windshield, manufacturers).
• 我们必须具备业务各个方面的系统设计能力。此外,我们必须具备以下核心组件(按重要性排序):
• We must have system design capability in all aspects of our business. In addition, we must have the following core components (in order of importance):
• 压缩机
• Compressors
• 电子控制
• Electronic controls
• 传热装置
• Heat transfer devices
• 外壳:形状和配置;空气动力学内容和能力;以及风扇
• Enclosures: shape and configuration; aerodynamic content and capability; and the fan
• 发动机
• Motor
• 柴油发动机
• Diesel engines
• 空气净化装置
• Air cleaning devices
• 我们必须开发集成控制和电机的技术能力(例如,产生轨道运动,并使用制冷剂冷却电机及其内部的电子设备)。联合技术公司 (UTC) 有一家电机供应商公司。我们可以与他们合作吗?
• We must develop technical capabilities to integrate controls and motors (e.g., to generate orbital motion, and use refrigerants to cool the motor and the electronics inside it). United Technologies Corp. (UTC) has a motor supplier company. Can we work with them?
• 我们必须具备电子控制系统(包括传感器)的设计能力。我们可以继续购买现成的组件。希望合作伙伴能够获得最佳的电子设计能力。
• We must have design capability for electronic control systems (including sensors). We can continue to buy components off the shelf. Partners are desirable to get the best electronic design capability.
• 我们将在工程组织的各个层面发展跨学科知识。了解环境趋势和不断变化的客户需求(无论是明显的还是潜在的),这些知识将确保创新产品及时进入市场。
• We will develop cross-disciplinary knowledge at every level of the engineering organization. An understanding of environmental trends and changing customer needs (both manifest and latent) will accompany this knowledge to ensure that innovative products reach the marketplace in a timely manner.
• 通过建模有效地整合学科具有显著的竞争优势。为了实现这一点,我们将通过激励和指导来鼓励建模。时间限制必须与设计工作完成后通过记录和改进模型来学习的需求相平衡。必须培训具有学科技能的新工程人才进行跨职能思考,并且必须用科学预测建模文化取代构建和测试文化。
• A significant competitive advantage exists in the effective integration of disciplines through modeling. To accomplish this, we will encourage modeling through incentives and mentoring. Time constraints must be balanced with the need to learn by documenting and refining models after the design effort is complete. New engineering talent with disciplinary skills must be trained to think cross-functionally and the build and test culture must be replaced with a scientific predictive modeling culture.
• 我们的基本方法是致力于客户满意度:我们将保证最终用户对我们所有产品的满意。
• Our basic approach is a commitment to customer satisfaction: we will guarantee the satisfaction of the end user with all our products.
• 我们必须制定经销商和分销商协议,以便在整个价值链中建立合作伙伴关系。我们将需要在很大程度上依赖他们来帮助我们实现我们的保证。
• We must develop dealer and distributor agreements such that we create partnerships throughout the value chain. We will need to rely heavily on them to a large extent to help us deliver our guarantee.
• 我们的保证适用于整个系统。因此,我们必须能够:
• Our guarantee applies to the system as a whole. Therefore, we must be able to:
• 生产系统的关键元件(例如空调机组)。
• Produce the critical elements of the system (e.g., A/C unit).
• 为我们的经销商使用的所有其他元素指定最低标准(我们的差异化因素)。
• Specify minimum standards for all other elements to be used by our dealers (our differentiating factor).
• 通过我们的经销商系统购买和分销非关键物品(例如,管道、线圈和恒温器)——但始终让他们选择从其他地方获取它们(只要它们符合标准);我们通过我们的“贸易公司”供应。
• Buy and distribute noncritical items (e.g., duct work, coils, and thermostats) through our dealer system — but always give them the choice to obtain them elsewhere (so long as they meet standards); we supply through our “trading company.”
• 我们将“几乎像特许经营商一样”对待我们的分销商/经销商。我们希望获得特许经营商关系的合作水平,而又不涉及法律麻烦。
• We will treat our distributors/dealers “almost as franchisees.” We hope to get the cooperation level of a franchisee relationship without the legal hassles.
• 遵守标准将成为我们经销商协议的重要组成部分。
• Compliance with standards will be a major part of our dealer agreements.
• 忠诚而高效的分销网络对于我们在市场上的领导地位至关重要。我们必须创造双赢局面,使我们的经销商和分销商保持财务健康。
• A loyal and efficient distribution network is essential to our leadership in the marketplace. We will have to create win/win situations in which our dealers and distributors remain financially healthy.
• 我们将采用混合分销系统:一些公司自有分销商和一些独立分销商。在以下情况下,我们将拥有分销商:
• We will have a hybrid distribution system: some company-owned distributors and some independents. We will own distributors when:
• 我们可以满足投资的资本成本。
• We can meet the cost of capital of our investment.
• 所有权对于我们来说具有战略重要性。
• Ownership is strategically important to us.
• 我们在该地区没有其他存在。
• We have no other presence in the region.
• 当我们无法复制独立分销商与当地经销商和客户的牢固关系时,我们将积极发展和利用独立分销商。
• We will actively develop and utilize independent distributors in cases where their strong relationships with local dealers and customers cannot be duplicated by us.
• 无论分销商是独立分销商还是公司所有分销商,我们都希望他们能够凭借自身实力获得成功,并与开利紧密合作。
• Irrespective of whether a distributor is independent or company-owned, we want them to be successful businesses in their own right and to work very closely with Carrier as a partner.
• 我们必须以客户为中心。这意味着要对地理和国家差异保持敏感:了解拉丁美洲居民和北美居民的需求(日本家庭和美国家庭与屋顶和室内空调的需求)。
• We must be customer-focused. This implies sensitivity to geographical and national differences: understanding the needs of Latin American residents as well as those of North American residents (homes in Japan and homes in the United States versus rooftop and room A/Cs).
• 我们的营销挑战是找到针对特定领域和应用的解决方案。
• Our marketing challenge is to find solutions for specific segments and applications.
• 我们必须不断努力降低成本。我们将通过改善物流、减少库存和精益制造来实现这一目标。这些改进将使我们能够随着时间的推移减少链条中的步骤数量。
• We must continually strive to drive costs out of the chain. We will achieve this through improved logistics, reduction of inventories, and lean manufacturing. These improvements will enable us to reduce the number of steps in the chain over time.
• 以客户为中心。
• A customer focus.
• 充分理解交通规则和绩效期望,并具有明确的决策标准。
• Well-understood rules of the road and expectations of performance, with explicit decision criteria.
• 尊重控制系统的需要,以确保问责制,从而实现有效的权力下放:监督是一种浪费。
• Respect for the need for a control system to assure accountability, thereby allowing effective decentralization: supervision is a waste.
• 有效解决内部冲突的流程。没有一个组织是没有冲突的。那些能够建设性地处理冲突的组织可以将其作为系统活力的引擎。
• Effective processes for dissolving internal conflicts. There are no conflict-free organizations. Those that can deal with conflicts constructively can use them as the engine for the system's vitality.
• 以产出为导向的奖励(而非以功能为导向)。这种激励制度有助于化解结构性冲突,而以功能为导向的奖励制度则会制造冲突。
• Throughput-oriented rewards (not functionally oriented). Such incentive systems help dissolve structural conflicts while functionally oriented ones create them.
• 一个集成的解决方案可解决降低成本和浪费、压缩时间、提高灵活性和提高质量的问题(而不是针对每个问题采用不同的解决方案)。
• One integrated solution for problems of reducing cost and waste, compressing time, increasing flexibility, and improving quality (as opposed to different solutions for each one).
• 组织精简、简单、非官僚、灵活,上下沟通顺畅。
• Lean, simple, nonbureaucratic, and flexible organization with easy communication up and down.
• 正式和非正式组织“同步”的书面规则和程序很少。
• Few written rules and procedures with formal and informal organization “in synch.”
• 在最低层级授权(权限与责任相匹配)。
• Empowerment at the lowest level (authority matching responsibility).
• 时间敏感性和对外部竞争压力的认识。
• Time sensitivity and awareness of the pressures of external competition.
以下设计采用的多维架构认识到同时在市场、产品和技术这三个维度上实现竞争优势的必要性。因此,它寻求消除任何一个维度上的次优化。目标是通过在三个维度之间建立双赢关系来积极产生协同效应、延迟和效率。三维架构同时认识到集中化和分散化、集成化和差异化以及相互依赖和自主性的必要性。
A multidimensional architecture employed in the following design recognizes the necessity for achieving competitive advantage in all three dimensions — market, product, and technology — at the same time. It therefore seeks to eliminate suboptimization around any one dimension. The objective is to actively generate synergy, latency, and efficiency by creating a win/win relationship among the three dimensions. A three-dimensional architecture recognizes the need for centralization and decentralization, integration and differentiation, and interdependency and autonomy at the same time.
在三维架构中,企业内部的结构性冲突通过尽可能地融入市场机制作为不同部门之间互动的基础而得到化解。然而,架构只是为系统提供了硬件,而业务流程则提供了软件。
In a three-dimensional architecture, structural conflicts inside the corporation are dissolved by incorporation of market mechanisms as the basis of interactions among different units wherever possible. The architecture, however, provides only the hardware for the system; business processes provide the software.
运营商的架构必须设计为支持市场、产品和技术的同等重视。以下架构将用于实现这种多维关注,同时创建市场驱动的业务。
Carrier's architecture must be designed to support equal emphasis on markets, products, and technology. The architecture that follows will be used to accomplish this multidimensional focus while creating a market-driven business.
开利的营销职能将由四个半自治区域执行。每个区域将依次管理若干个区域单位。
Marketing functions in Carrier will be carried out in four semi-autonomous areas. Each area in turn will manage a number of regional units.
区域是市场维度的基本单位,是Carrier实际发生的地方。
A region is the basic unit of the market dimension. It is where Carrier actually happens.
• 给定区域的大小和边界由以下考虑因素决定:
• The size and boundaries of a given region are determined by the following considerations:
• 物理访问
• Physical access
• 气候
• Climate
• 施工实践(设计和材料)
• Construction practices (design and material)
• 经济发展阶段
• Stages of economic development
• 作为开利公司的唯一营销部门,区域经理无需承担制造责任。但一些专门服务于当地市场的当地工厂除外。
• As the sole marketing arm of the Carrier Corporation, regional managers are relieved of their manufacturing responsibilities. Exceptions will be for some local factories designed to serve local markets only.
• 区域单位将是销售和分销服务机构。它们将主要负责销售、分销、安装和服务产品。它们将包括应用工程和技术支持。
• Regional units will be sales and distribution service organizations. They will be primarily responsible for selling, distributing, installing, and servicing products. They will include application engineering and technical support.
• 区域单位将负责开发和维护各区域的分销系统。分销系统将包括三个主要渠道:直销、零售和经销商。
• Regional units will have the responsibility to develop and maintain the distribution system in each region. The distribution system will comprise three main channels: direct, retail, and dealers.
• 现场销售组织将通过三个重要流程与工厂和产品组相连:
• The sales organization in the field will be connected to plants and product groups by three vital processes:
• 产品设计周期(将客户的要求传达给设计师)
• Product design cycle (requirements of the customer communicated to designers)
• 订单付款周期
• Order payment cycle
• 物流支持
• Logistics support
• 区域单位的主要职责是了解最终用户的需求,并帮助开利针对这些需求提供适当的解决方案。
• Regional units have the primary responsibility for understanding the end users' requirements and helping Carrier provide appropriate solutions to those requirements.
• 区域组织将负责在地方层面创造协同效应并减少不必要的重复服务。由于每个地区的问题和机遇的性质不同,适合每个地区的组织设置也将有所不同。
• Regional organizations will be responsible for creating synergy at the local level and reducing unnecessary duplication of services. Since the nature of the problems and opportunities is different in each region, the organizational setup appropriate for each region will also be different in each region.
• 每个地区还将有一位地区倡导者,负责开发满足每个地区需求的新业务。
• Each region will also have a regional advocate who will be responsible for the development of new businesses that satisfy the needs of each region.
每个区域单位将负责设计、设计和营销一套产品和服务系统,以满足特定细分市场的需求。最初,每个区域将有三个这样的细分市场:住宅系统、商业系统以及工业和机构系统。
Every area unit will be responsible for designing, engineering, and marketing a system of products and services as solutions to the needs of a given market segment. Initially, there will be three such segments in each area: residential systems, commercial systems, and industrial and institutional systems.
作为市场驱动单位,区域单位必须了解特定细分市场面临的当前和潜在的气候控制问题,并制定和提供解决这些问题的解决方案。
As market-driven units, area units must understand the current and latent climate control problems faced by specific market segments and develop and offer solutions to those problems.
每个部门将负责其特定领域的系统开发。系统设计将根据不同地区的本地需求进行。系统解决方案将基于输出部门开发的全球平台进行设计。这些平台提供模块化设计,使底盘和组件标准化,同时允许进行变化以满足不同的本地需求。每个输出部门都将拥有顶级系统工程师,负责开发可在其中制造本地产品的全球平台。
Each unit will be responsible for system development in its specific segment. System designs will be informed by local requirements in different regions. System solutions will be designed on global platforms developed by output units. These platforms provide modular designs that standardize chassis and components while allowing for variations to satisfy different local requirements. Each output unit will have top system engineers on their team for developing global platforms within which local products can be manufactured.
区域单位将制定基本政策和方法,以开发和维护为所有 Carrier 单位服务的分销系统。例如,区域单位将制定政策,用于采购和分销互补产品,以帮助增加经销商级别的业务。政策的实施将由区域单位负责。此外,区域经理将负责开发新市场、区域单位和输出单位之间的联络以及区域级别的整合和管理。
Area units will develop the basic policies and approach for developing and maintaining a distribution system to serve all Carrier units. For example, area units will be expected to develop policies for acquiring and distributing complementary products intended to help increase the business at the dealership level. Implementation of policies will be the responsibility of regional units. Additionally, area managers will be responsible for developing new markets, for liaison between regional units and output units, and for consolidation and administration at the area level.
一般而言,区域单位没有固定资产。这将确保他们不会专注于现有设施和现有产品。他们的全部精力应该放在为客户提供最佳解决方案上。
In general, area units will have no fixed assets. This will ensure that they are not preoccupied with existing facilities and current products. Their total focus should be on delivering the best solution to the customer.
这些产品和服务可能由开利制造部门提供,也可能不提供。这种对“制造或购买”决策的不断审查和重新评估将持续给设计者和制造商(供应商)带来竞争压力。
These products and services may or may not be provided by Carrier manufacturing units. This constant examination and re-evaluation of the “make or buy” decisions will keep continuous competitive pressure on both the designers and the manufacturers (suppliers).
每个区域都会有零部件部门的成员来管理区域层面的物流、仓储和实体运输系统。
There will be members of the parts unit in each area to manage the logistics, warehousing, and physical transportation systems at the area level.
输出部门将负责全球最终产品的设计和生产。此类产品销往多个地理区域,复杂程度高,且具有显著的规模经济效益。输出部门经理将负责全球范围内的可制造性、功能性和适用性设计,以及精益生产系统、交付和成本。
Output units will be responsible for the design and production of global end products. Such products are sold in more than one geographic region, have a high level of complexity, and offer significant economies of scale. Output unit managers will have worldwide responsibility for designing manufacturability, functionality, and serviceability, as well as lean production systems, delivery, and costs.
全球产品将基于全球平台概念进行设计,即模块化设计,使底盘和部件标准化,同时允许变化以满足不同的本地要求。载体产品必须在全球范围内构思和设计。载体技术必须在全球范围内应用。
Global products will be designed on a global platform concept, that is, a modular design that standardizes chassis and components while allowing for variations to satisfy different local requirements. Carrier products must be globally conceived and designed. Carrier technology must be globally applied.
产出经理将负责在全球范围内优化制造设施以确保竞争力。
Output managers will be responsible for optimizing manufacturing facilities on a global basis to ensure competitiveness.
在设计的第一个近似阶段,制造资源将以区域为基础进行优化。但这并不意味着从制造角度看,每个区域都应自给自足。事实上,每个区域都应发展至少一个设施作为产品的全球供应商,并成为全球产品的冠军。
In the first approximation to the design, manufacturing resources will be optimized on an area basis. This will not mean, however, that each area will be expected to be self-sufficient from a manufacturing perspective. In fact, each area will be expected to develop at least one facility as a global supplier of products and become the champion of a global product.
每个输出单位都将是一个利润中心,具有销售和外部采购的能力。此外,还将有两个其他输出单位:Transicold 和 Aftermarket Parts。运输产品业务的独特性质要求将其作为与固定 HVAC(供暖、通风、空调)产品不同的输出单位。Transicold 将继续按目前的方式运营;但是,它将积极寻求利用现有 Carrier 销售和分销系统提供的服务。
Each output unit will be a profit center with the ability to sell and source externally. In addition, there will be two other output units: Transicold and Aftermarket Parts. The unique nature of the transportation product business necessitates treating it as an output unit separate from stationary HVAC (heating, ventilation, air conditioning) products. Transicold will continue to operate as it currently does; however, it will proactively seek to utilize the services offered by the existing Carrier sales and distribution system.
售后零件是我们全面解决客户问题的重要元素,也是一个巨大的市场机会。我们必须积极发展这些业务。售后零件将是一个由区域(市场)部门和输出部门共同拥有的全球业务部门。它将购买和分销开利和非开利的零件和部件。
Aftermarket parts are important elements of our total solution to customer problems and also a big market opportunity. We must aggressively develop these businesses. Aftermarket parts will be a global business unit jointly owned by area (market) units and output units. It will buy and distribute Carrier and non-Carrier parts and components.
组件组将负责:
The components group will be responsible for:
• 开发和维护所有先前类别的最先进的知识(产品技术和设计)。
• Developing and maintaining state-of-the-art knowledge (product technology and design) for all of the previous categories.
• 在经济可行的范围内生产尽可能多的第 1 类产品。
• Manufacturing as many Category 1 products as is economically feasible.
• 寻求并建立合作伙伴关系,以保持对无法经济生产的第 1 类组件的战略控制。
• Seeking and creating partnerships to maintain strategic control over those Category 1 components that it cannot economically produce.
• 与第 2 类和第 3 类生产商建立战略联盟,以确保对发展有足够的影响力和可靠的供应源。
• Creating strategic alliances with producers of Categories 2 and 3 to ensure sufficient influence over the developments and reliable sources of supply.
为了确保全球成本和质量竞争力,每个零部件业务都应该能够独立生存。因此,该集团中的每个部门都将被视为单独的业务。零部件集团内的部门将可以选择将其产品出售给其他原始设备制造商 (OEM)。同样,开利产品经理将可以选择从外部供应商采购零部件。
To ensure worldwide cost and quality competitiveness, each component business should be able to survive on a stand-alone basis. Therefore, each unit in this group will be treated as a separate business. Units within the components group will have the option of selling their products to other original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Likewise, Carrier product managers will have the option of sourcing their components from external suppliers.
一开始,公司可能需要对零部件集团进行补贴,直到它能够为内部客户提供有竞争力的价格。
At the start, it might be necessary for the corporation to subsidize the components group until it can provide competitive prices to its internal customers.
最初,该组将有两个部门:压缩机和电子控制装置。
Initially, there will be two units in this group: compressors and electronic controls.
技术集团将成为开利的研发部门,负责识别和培育开利业务所需的核心技术。开利将不断评估其技术概况,以满足业务的新兴需求。公司在相关技术和组件方面的期望地位将使用以下三个类别来定义:
The technology group will be the research and development arm of Carrier, responsible for identifying and nurturing core technologies required by Carrier businesses. Carrier will continuously assess its technological profile to match the emerging needs of the business. The company's desired position with respect to related technologies and components will be defined using the following three categories:
• 必须具备内部知识和控制力
• Must have knowledge and control in-house
• 必须具备知识和战略联盟
• Must have knowledge and strategic alliances
• 必须具备影响独立开发者的知识
• Must have knowledge to influence independent developers
| 核心技术或部件 | 知识与控制 | 知识与联盟 | 知识与影响力 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 压缩机 | 十 | ||
| 电子控制 | 十 | ||
| 传热装置 | 十 | ||
| 外壳、风扇和空气流动 | 十 | ||
| 电机 | 十 | ||
| 空气净化装置 | 十 | ||
| 制冷剂 | 十 | ||
| 柴油发动机 | 十 | ||
| 构建软件 | 十 |
技术集团内的一个特别小组将专注于开发服务技术(例如远程诊断功能)。所有业务部门将资助此项活动。
A special group within the technology group will focus on developing service technology (e.g., remote diagnosis capability). This activity will be funded by all the business units.
该部门将专注于提高企业的产出量。它以模块化团队为组织结构,为 Carrier 的所有部门提供支持。
This unit will focus on increasing throughput of the enterprise. It is organized around modular teams and provides support to all units in Carrier.
开利将创建专业技术中心,在整个组织内开发和传播知识。这些中心将分为流程团队和技术团队。这些知识不会像大学那样按学科划分,而是跨学科的,因此可以为复杂问题提供解决方案。
Carrier will create centers of expertise that develop and disseminate knowledge throughout the organization. They will be organized into process teams and technology teams. This knowledge is not divided by disciplines, as in universities, but will be cross-disciplinary so it can provide solutions to complex problems.
流程和技术团队将作为内部顾问,攻克和改进业务的关键要素。他们将向组织的其他成员介绍设计和生产流程方面的最新进展。这些团队将向高管办公室和运营部门推销他们的服务。流程团队必须在组织中重塑自我。他们负责重新设计、实施和交付系统解决方案。只有当项目被认为是成功的,团队才会继续迎接下一个挑战。
Process and technology teams will work as internal consultants attacking and improving critical elements of the business. They will educate the rest of the organization on the latest advancements in design and throughput processes. The teams will be expected to market their services to both the executive office and to the operating units. Process teams must re-create themselves in the organization. They are accountable for redesigning, implementing, and handing off systems solutions. Only when the project has been considered a success will the team move on to its next challenge.
流程团队将围绕特定的生产流程进行组织,但所有团队都将具备信息技术、全面质量、人力系统和设计方面的跨职能专业知识。他们的目标是为每个关键的生产流程制定一个集成解决方案(单一设计),以便同时实现以下所有关键成功目标:
Process teams will be organized around specific throughput processes, but all will have cross-functional expertise in information technology, total quality, human systems, and design. Their objective is to produce an integrated solution (a single design) for each of the critical throughput processes so that all of the following critical goals for success can be simultaneously accomplished:
• 缩短时间周期
• Reduce the time cycle
• 消除浪费
• Eliminate waste
• 实现灵活性
• Achieve flexibility
• 实现全面质量
• Achieve total quality
技术团队将由多学科人员组成,能够整合和应用各种技术来解决特定的业务问题。他们负责向公司中的每个人(从工程师到直销人员)传授新兴技术对 Carrier 业务的潜在影响。团队成员的奖励将基于整个团队的成功。团队将由非常有能力的专业人士组成,并长期保持在一起以确保持续改进。
Technology teams will be multidisciplinary, with the ability to integrate and apply various technologies to solve specific business problems. They are charged with educating everyone in the company, from engineers to the direct sales force, on the potential impact of emerging technologies on Carrier's business. Incentives for team members will be based on the success of the team as a whole. Teams will be composed of very competent professionals and kept together for an extended period to ensure continuous improvement.
管理支持服务包括财务、会计和行政服务;人力资源服务;MIS;质量。这些部门都将提供服务。控制功能将成为行政办公室的一部分。所有输入单元都将成为“绩效中心”。对于每个部门,将制定一套具体的绩效衡量标准。每个部门都有望通过其运营为开利公司增加价值。因此,盈利能力将成为每个部门绩效衡量的关键因素。每个部门的收入将来自其对其他开利部门和/或外部客户的“销售”。
Management support services include financial, accounting, and administrative services; human resource services; MIS; and quality. These units will all provide services. The function of control will be part of the executive office. All input units will be “performance centers.” For each unit, a set of specific measures of performance will be developed. Each unit will be expected to add value to Carrier through its operations. Therefore, profitability will be a key factor in each unit's performance measurement. The revenues for each unit will be derived from its “sales” to other Carrier units and/or to external customers.
• 互动政策团队将成为协调政策和计划以及化解 Carrier 各部门之间冲突的主要工具。
• Interactive policy teams will be the main vehicle for aligning policies and plans and for dissolving conflicts among units in Carrier.
• 每个互动政策团队至少有来自三个管理层级的成员:团队经理、其上司和其直接下属。其他成员可定期或针对特定问题加入。
• Each interactive policy team will have members from a minimum of three levels of management: the manager whose team it is, his/her boss, and his/her direct reports. Other members may be added on a regular basis or on specific issues.
• 互动政策团队负责制定政策,不参与运营决策。
• Interactive policy teams are responsible for making policies. They do not get involved in operation decisions.
• 政策确定了管理者决策的标准。就决策标准达成一致是成功分权的关键。
• Policies establish the criteria by which managers make decisions. Agreement on decision criteria is the key to successful decentralization.
• 如果未决决策没有政策,则负责的经理将自行做出决策。相应的交互式政策团队稍后可能会决定制定针对未来情况的政策。
• If no policy exists for a pending decision, the responsible manager will make the decision on his/her own. The appropriate interactive policy team may later decide to make a policy for future situations.
• 每项政策都将由尽可能最低级别的团队制定。
• Each policy will be made at the lowest level team possible.
• 将组建专门的互动政策团队,负责协调具有战略重要性的具体问题的政策。
• Special interactive policy teams will be formed to coordinate policy on specific issues of strategic importance.
• 测量系统将以吞吐量为导向。
• The measurement system will be throughput-oriented.
• 这将为各单位创造双赢局面。这将避免各单位之间无休止的价格争斗。
• It will create win/win situations for the units. It will avoid endless fights among internal units over prices.
• 它不仅认可单位本身的绩效,而且还认可单位对其他单位绩效的贡献。
• It will recognize not only the performance of the unit itself, but also the unit's contribution to other units' performance.
• 它将包含内部合作而非外包的激励机制。例如,它可能对内部和外部交易实行不同的税率。
• It will contain incentives for internal cooperation rather than outsourcing. It may, for example, have a differential tax rate for internal and external transactions.
以下模型代表了运营商价值链中各个单位之间的拟议关系。该系统的目标是使每个单位的收入与整个系统的吞吐量保持一致。
The following model represents the proposed relationship among the various units in Carrier's value chain. The aim of this system is to align each unit's revenues to the throughput of the system as a whole.
• 每个单位将有一个可变预算,该预算是总吞吐量的函数。
• Each unit will have a variable budget that will be a function of the total throughput.
• 每个单位将是一个利润中心。单位的收入将是整个系统吞吐量的百分比。每个单位的成本将是实际成本。
• Each unit will be a profit center. Revenues for the unit will be a percentage of the throughput of the total system. Costs for each unit will be actual costs.
• 构成每个单位收入的吞吐量百分比可以通过以下方法组合确定:
• The percentage of throughput that will constitute each unit's revenues may be determined by a combination of the following methods:
• 根据企业战略和竞争环境得出的理想细分
• An idealized breakdown derived from corporate strategy and the competitive environment
• 行业基准
• Industry benchmarks
• 竞争分析(替代供应源)
• Competitive analysis (alternative sources of supply)
• 历史数据
• Historical data
– 执行委员会在公司政策团队论坛上的讨论
– Executive committee discussions at the corporate policy team forum
作者简介
Author Biography
作为 INTERACT(互动管理研究所)的管理合伙人,作者在设计和开发业务架构、规划、学习和控制系统方面拥有超过 35 年的系统方法实践经验。他的工作使他涉足世界各地的公司和政府机构,为私人和公共事务提供服务。
As a managing partner of INTERACT (The Institute for Interactive Management), the author has more than 35 years of experience with the practice of systems methodology in design and the development of business architecture, planning, learning, and control systems. His work has taken him into corporations and government agencies around the world for both private and public concerns.
Gharajedaghi 先生曾任宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院研究中心主任兼系统科学副教授(1979-1986 年)。他的职业生涯始于 IBM 的世界贸易公司,担任高级系统工程师(1963-1969 年)。他离开 IBM 后担任工业管理学院首席执行官(1969-1979 年)。他曾在维拉诺瓦商学院(1999 年至今,获得高级工商管理硕士学位)、宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院(1977-1986 年)、IBM 教育中心(1965-1969 年)和加州大学伯克利分校(1961-1963 年)任教。
Mr. Gharajedaghi was formerly the Director of the Research Center and Adjunct Professor of Systems Sciences at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (1979–1986). He began his career with IBM's World Trade Corporation where he served as a senior systems engineer (1963–1969). He left IBM to become CEO of the Industrial Management Institute (1969–1979). He has held teaching positions at Villanova School of Business (Executive MBA 1999 to present); The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (1977–1986); IBM Education Centers (1965–1969); and the University of California, Berkeley (1961–1963).
他于 1963 年获得加州大学伯克利分校工程学位,并在英国、德国和法国的 IBM 教育中心完成了超过 1,800 小时的系统工程专业培训。从早期的信息系统培训开始,他的兴趣转向运筹学、行为科学,最后转向系统思维和交互设计的开发和应用。
He received his engineering degree from the University of California, Berkeley (1963) and completed more than 1,800 hours of professional training in systems engineering at the IBM Education Centers in the UK, Germany, and France. From this early training in information systems, his interests led him to operations research, behavioral sciences, and, finally, to the development and application of systems thinking and interactive design.
他曾担任以下组织成员:美国国际系统研究所研究委员会成员(1983 年至 1992 年);日本亚洲生产力组织管理机构成员(1972 年至 1979 年);伊朗 AZAD 大学董事会成员(1976 年至 1979 年);亚洲一般系统研究学会区域主席(1975 年至 1979 年)。
He has been a member of: the Research Board of the International Systems Institute, United States (1983–1992); the Governing Body of the Asian Productivity Organization, Japan (1972–1979); the Board of Trustees for AZAD University, Iran (1976–1979); and Regional Chairman of the Society for General Systems Research, Asia (1975–1979).
Gharajedaghi 先生曾参与以下赞助组织的业务、产品和/或流程的重新设计:
Mr. Gharajedaghi has been involved with the following sponsoring organizations to redesign businesses, product(s), and/or processes:
| 美国铝业公司 (ALCOA) |
福特汽车公司 |
| 健康保健论坛 | |
| ANGLOVAAL, Ltd.(南非) | 万豪集团 |
| Armco(拉丁美洲分部) | 马丁玛丽埃塔公司 |
| 巴特沃斯医疗系统 | 大都会人寿保险 公司 |
| 开利公司 | |
| 克莱斯勒公司 | NYNEX 科学技术有限公司 |
| 克拉克设备公司 | 威斯康星州印第安人奥奈达部落 |
| 联邦能源系统 | |
| Edgars Stores, Ltd.(南非) | 超级新鲜食品市场 联合食品和商业 工人工会 |
他曾担任两个国际知名项目的项目经理:联合国项目“新经济秩序”和罗马俱乐部项目“人类目标”。
He was the project manager for two internationally acclaimed projects: New Economic Order, a United Nations project; and Goals for Mankind, a Club of Rome project.
结论
Conclusion
读到这里,你一定已经着迷了。你甚至可能已经意识到整体迭代思维的理念具有巨大的力量。要内化它,你必须让它成为你自己的。这意味着你应该:(1)记下你感兴趣的要点,(2)用你自己的语言重复主要论点,(3)与他人分享。学习的最好方法是教。如果你能激发别人的兴趣并让他们听你讲一个小时,你就正在成为一名有效的系统设计师的路上。
Having come this far, you must have gotten the bug already. You may even have realized that there is tremendous power in the idea of holistic iterative thinking. To internalize it, you must make it your own. This means that you should: (1) make notes of the major points that were of interest to you, (2) repeat the main arguments to yourself in your own language, and (3) share them with others. The best way to learn is to teach. If you can excite others and make them listen to you for one hour, you are on your way to becoming an effective systems designer.
系统思维是简化复杂性的艺术。它涉及看透混乱、管理相互依赖和理解选择。我们认为世界变得越来越复杂和混乱,因为我们使用不充分的概念来解释它。当我们理解某件事时,我们不再认为它是混乱或复杂的。
Systems thinking is the art of simplifying complexity. It is about seeing through chaos, managing interdependency, and understanding choice. We see the world as increasingly more complex and chaotic because we use inadequate concepts to explain it. When we understand something, we no longer see it as chaotic or complex.
学习系统方法论就像学习下棋。规则相对简单,但只有通过练习才能熟练掌握。要时刻意识到系统维度在你生活中的重要性。将系统原则运用到你的日常遭遇中。这些概念在个人环境中更有力、更有意义。要理解复杂性,就需要发现潜在的节奏——事物重复的顺序。
Learning the systems methodology is very much like learning to play chess. The rules are relatively simple, but proficiency comes only with practice. Stay appreciative of the imperatives of the systems dimensions in your life. Apply the systems principles to your daily encounters. These concepts are even more potent and relevant in a personal context. To understand complexity, one needs to discover the underlying rhythm — the order by which things repeat themselves.
最初的几次尝试并不容易,但一旦你掌握了窍门,你就会享受到迭代思维的力量。以不同的、清晰的视角、正确的视角看待事物,会产生一种新的生活方式。你将能够管理外部事物,影响那些你无法控制的人,并在你负责的任何系统的吞吐量上产生数量级的变化。很快,你就会发现这个世界充满了等待被发现的失意英雄。幸福和成功,以及爱情,必须不断重现。“他们从此过上了幸福的生活”是一个谎言。你会了解到,作为美的本质,兴奋是改变和社会融合的最有力工具。而行动的力量是一个能力问题。就像知识一样,力量在分享时会增强。最后,但并非最不重要的是,当人们亲手塑造一个想法时,他们更有可能实施它。
The first few tries are not going to be easy, but once you get the hang of it you will enjoy the power of iterative thinking. Seeing things differently and clearly, in their proper perspective, results in a new mode of being. You will be able to manage outward, influence those whom you do not control, and produce an order-of-magnitude change in the throughput of any system of which you are in charge. Soon, you will discover that the world is full of frustrated heroes waiting to be discovered. Happiness and success, as well as love, must be continuously reproduced. “They lived happily ever after” is a lie. You will learn that excitement, as the essence of beauty, is the most potent instrument of change and social integration. And that power-to-do is a matter of competence. Like knowledge, power is enhanced when it is shared. Last, but not least, people are more likely to implement an idea when they have had a hand in shaping it.
以下提示可以帮助您入门。
The following tips will get you started.
在尝试解决问题之前,先好好把握问题。不要只看表面。记住,问题和解决方案都不能脱离背景来考虑。倾向于根据解决方案来定义问题,以及强烈偏爱脱离背景的解决方案,只会让过去重演,一遍又一遍地重复同样的非解决方案。不要使用时间和信息或资源等通用约束来定义问题。这意味着您已经根据已知的解决方案定义了问题。这可能假设了比您真正想说的更多的东西。在您仍在定义问题的过程中,不要考虑任何可能的解决方案建议。
Get a good handle on the problem before you try to solve it. Do not accept problems at face value. Remember, neither a problem nor a solution can be entertained free of context. A tendency to define problems in terms of their solutions, and a strong preference for context-free solutions will merely continue regenerating the past, reproducing the same non-solution all over again. Do not use universal constraints such as time and information or resources to define problems. It implies that you have defined the problem in terms of a known solution. This may be assuming more than what you really want to say. Do not entertain any suggestions for possible solutions while you are still engaged in the process of defining the problem.
将定义问题的过程与产生解决方案的过程分开。从更大的角度看问题;尝试将问题视为混乱的互动元素,即隐含在系统当前行为中的未来。要绘制混乱的地图,请生成所研究系统的快照。反复处理功能(输出)、结构(主要参与者)、流程(他们如何做他们所做的事情)和目的(系统在其包含环境中所扮演的角色)。尝试找出阻碍系统财富、权力、美感、知识和价值维度正常运作的障碍。这应该指向一个问题网络。最后,您可以通过认识到(1)因果关系可能形成循环关系;(2)事件可能有多种结果,每种结果都有不同的时间滞后;(3)如果“X”是好的,更多的“X”不一定更好;(4)坚持玩旧游戏会将成功转化为失败。让人们为自己的过去感到防御并不是一个好主意。将混乱描述为成功的结果将有助于人们接受它。
Separate the process of defining the problem from the process of producing the solution. Look at the bigger picture; try to see the problems as interactive elements of a mess, the future implicit in the present behavior of the system. To map the mess, generate a snapshot of the system under study. Deal iteratively with function (the output), structure (the major actors), process (how they do what they do), and purpose (the role the system plays in its containing environment). Try to identify obstructions to proper functioning of the wealth, power, beauty, knowledge, and value dimensions of the system. This should point to a web of problems. Finally, you can capture the future implicit in the present order by recognizing that (1) cause and effect may form circular relations; (2) events may have multiple outcomes, each with a different time lag; (3) if “X” is good, more “X” is not necessarily better; and (4) tenacity in playing the old game converts success to failure. It is not a good idea to make people feel defensive about their past. Presenting the mess as the consequence of success will go a long way toward getting it accepted.
要设计解决方案,首先要有一个令人兴奋的未来愿景,你有能力实现它,然后再回溯到现有系统。这种看似疯狂的做法是有逻辑的。问问那些喜欢解迷宫的孩子。他们会告诉你为什么应该从最后开始。
To design a solution, start with an exciting vision of the future that you are capable of producing and then work backward to the existing system. There is a logic to this apparent madness. Ask children who like to solve mazes. They will tell you why you should start from the end.
想象一下,你正在处理的系统一夜之间被摧毁,其他一切都完好无损,而你要重新创建它。这个命题也有一个扭曲的逻辑。关键是,如果你无法在现有秩序中产生可接受的设计,尽管没有施加限制,那么隧道尽头可能根本看不到一丝曙光。这意味着真正的问题可能在于环境,而不是设计本身。改变你的焦点;尝试通过向外管理来影响你周围的环境。如果这不可能,你最好逃离这个不可能的境地。
Imagine that the system you were dealing with was destroyed overnight; everything else remained intact, and you are to re-create it anew. There is a twisted logic in this proposition as well. The point is, if you are not able to produce an acceptable design within the existing order, despite the absence of imposing constraints, then there might not be a light at the end of the tunnel at all. This means that real problems may lie in the environment rather than within the design itself. Change your focus; try to influence your immediate environment by managing outward. If this is not possible, you may be better off to get the hell out of that impossible situation.
设计是控制、影响和欣赏影响系统存在的参数的潜在手段。共同产生未来的参数存在于社会系统五个维度的相互作用中。创造兼容性并加强权力、知识、财富、美和价值之间的关系会产生共鸣,这是一种 10 倍的力量,在大多数情况下,它可以克服最顽固的障碍。
Design is the potential means of controlling, influencing, and appreciating the parameters affecting the system's existence. The parameters that coproduce the future are found in the interactions of five dimensions of a social system. Creating compatibility and reinforcing relations among power, knowledge, wealth, beauty, and value produces a resonance, a 10X force that, in most situations, will overcome the most stubborn obstacles.
本书最后一部分讨论的五种系统架构都基于令人兴奋的模块化设计概念。模块化设计是处理变更和实施复杂设计的最有效和最实用的方法,而不会迷失方向。模块化概念是最初用于复杂计算机设计的强大概念的变体。正是将这一设计原则扩展到整个计算机行业的组织,才使其取得了显著的成功。它创造了从较小的子系统构建复杂产品的能力,这些子系统可以独立设计,但可以作为一个整体协同工作。
The five systems architectures discussed in the last part of this book were all based on an exciting notion of modular design. Modular design is the most potent and practical means of handling change and implementing complex designs, without getting lost in the process. This notion of modularity is a variation of the powerful concept originally used in the design of complex computers. It is the extension of this design principle to the organization of the computer industry as a whole that is responsible for its remarkable success. It created the ability to build a complex product from smaller subsystems that can be designed independently yet function together as a whole.
回想一下,要创建模块化结构,我们首先必须设计一个架构——对系统的重要功能、主要元素和关键流程进行一般性描述。架构由一组不同但相互关联的平台组成。每个平台都承载一组专用模块。平台之间的关系和接口是明确定义的。各部分作为独立系统运行,能够相对自我控制,但又充当连贯系统的负责任成员,能够有效响应其整体的要求。模块化设计是一种强大的变革工具。请尽你所能地使用它。
Recall that to create a modular structure we first had to design an architecture — a general description of a system in terms of its vital functions, major elements, and critical processes. An architecture consists of a set of distinct, but interrelated, platforms. Each platform hosts a set of special-purpose modules. Relationships and the interfaces among platforms are explicitly defined. Parts operate as independent systems with the ability to be relatively self-controlling and yet act as responsible members of a coherent system with the ability to respond effectively to the requirements of their containing whole. Modular design is a powerful instrument of change. Use it to the best of your ability.
参考
References
指数
Index
一个
A
异化
Alienation
分析性思维
Analytical thinking
苹果操作系统
Apple operating system
建筑设计
Architecture design
乙
B
业务架构
Business architecture
组件构建器
component builders
功能
functions
全球市场经济
global market economy
输入维度
input dimension
集权与分权
centralization and decentralization
核心技术
core technologies
规模经济
economy of scale
市价
market price
均匀性
uniformity
内部市场经济
internal market economy
令人愉快和令人不愉快的服务提供商
agreeable and disagreeable service provider
官僚化
bureaucratization
客户与供应商的关系
customer–provider relationship
线性框架
linear framework
矩阵组织
matrix organizations
双老板系统
two-boss system
市场维度
market dimension
组织过程
organizational process
交互设计,定义
interactive design, definition
规划、学习和控制系统
planning, learning and control system
逐次逼近法
successive approximation
生存力矩阵
viability matrix
组织理论
organizational theory
输出维度
output dimension
环境机会和内部能力
environmental opportunities and internal competencies
半自治和自给自足
semi- autonomous and self-sufficient
有能力做事
power-to-do
目的
purpose
苹果操作系统
Apple operating system
核心竞争力
core competency
国防工业
defense industry
方面
dimensions
动态相对现象
dynamic and relative phenomenon
经验曲线
experience curve
交互式设计
interactive design
材料科学与加工技术
materials science and processing technology
机械模式
mechanistic mode
多元文化建筑
multicultural architecture
产品型业务
product-based business
“坚持”业务
“sticking” business
系统边界
system's boundary
定义
definition
福特汽车公司
Ford Motor Company
市场经济
market economy
参与演员
participating actors
单一学科/部门
single discipline/department
单维概念
unidimensional concept
业务系统
Business systems
集体所有制
collective ownership
愿望和能力
desires and abilities
发展
development
生成和传播
generation and dissemination
治理和系统间关系
governance and intersystem relationships
个人所有权和战略联盟
individual ownership and strategic alliances
工业部门
industry sector
土地和农业部门
land and agriculture sector
休闲部门
leisure sector
合作伙伴关系和特许经营发展
partnership and franchise development
服务业
services sector
北海医疗系统
Butterworth health system
建筑学
architecture
护理理念
care concept
照护系统
care system
共同特征
common features
背景
contextual background
所需规格
desired specification
介入治疗
interventional care
预防保健
preventive care
临终关怀
terminal care
生存护理
viability care
核心知识
core knowledge
联盟
confederation
持续创新和改进
continuous innovation and improvement
核心竞争力
core competency
医疗保健提供者
health-care providers
领导
leadership
市场维度
market dimension
医学研究和教育
medical research and education
多维架构
multidimensional architecture
组织背景
organizational context
研究和学习
research and learning
结构性冲突
structural conflict
设计规范
design specification
行政办公室
executive office
加氢裂化装置
HDS
复合性能概况
composite performance profile
客户与供应商的关系
customer–provider relationship
参与和所有权
engagement and ownership
医疗保健能力
health-care competency
医疗保健过程
health-care process
“低层次”方法
“low-archical” approach
组织生存力
organizational viability
产品开发
product development
社会系统
social systems
次优化
suboptimization
问题、顾虑和期望
issues, concerns, and expectations
护理管理
care management
医疗保健系统
health-care system
预防保健
preventive care
敏感的医患关系
sensitive patient–physician relationship
疾病保健
sickness-based health care
市场维度
market dimension
服务费
fee for service
高温金属氧化物半导体
HMOS
医疗补助
Medicaid
医疗保险
medicare
非受保客户
noncovered customers
输出维度
output dimension
辅助服务
ancillary services
商业服务功能
business services function
护理机构
care facility
临床服务
clinical service
社区卫生服务体系
community-based health delivery system
健康服务模块
health delivery module
卫生保健系统设计
health delivery system design
家庭护理管理
home care management
酒店及设施管理
hospitality and facility management
模块化结构
modular structure
职业护理管理
occupational care management
病人护理
patient care
医患关系
patient relation
传统职能结构
traditional functional structure
碳
C
产能利用率
Capacity utilization
开利公司
Carrier Corporation
业务流程
business processes
决策系统
decision system
绩效评估和奖励制度
performance measurement and reward system
目标成本和变动预算系统
target costing and variable budgeting system
成分
components
压缩机和电子控制装置
compressors and electronic controls
原始设备制造商
OEMs
产品技术与设计
product technology and design
核心价值观
core values
核心技术
core technology
客户满意度
customer satisfaction
市场细分
market segmentation
产品和服务
products and services
销售和分销系统
sales and distribution system
期望、假设和规范
expectations, assumptions, and specifications
竞争基础
bases for competition
气候控制系统
climate control system
灵活生产
flexible production
暖通空调行业
HVAC industry
产品技术
product technology
输入
inputs
管理支持服务
management support service
运营支持(流程设计)
operational support (process design)
技术
technology
输出单元
output units
售后零件
aftermarket parts
全球平台概念
global platform concept
销售和分销系统
sales and distribution system
半自主制造单位
semi-autonomous manufacturing units
最先进的设计
state-of-the-art design
灾变理论
Catastrophe theory
集中化与分散化
Centralization and decentralization
自治
autonomy
决策标准
decision criteria
二分法
dichotomy
赋权
empowerment
多心智系统
multi-minded systems
集中管理职能
Centralized administrative functions
联邦能源系统 (COM/Energy)
Commonwealth energy system (COM/Energy)
商业环境
business environment
内置成本增加系统
built-in cost increase system
客户群差异化
customer base differentiation
能源行业
energy industry
核心业务部门
core business units
热电联产及能源供应包
cogeneration and packages of energy supply
以客户为导向的业务部门
customer-oriented business unit
能源效率和电工技术
energy efficiency and electrotechnology
天然气和电力分配
natural gas and electricity distribution
企业战略
corporate strategy
设计
design
核心价值与期望规范
core values and desired specification
目的和战略意图
purpose and strategic intent
能源经纪
energy brokerage
行政办公室
executive office
自下而上的混乱表述
bottom-up mess formulation
持续改进
continuous improvement
核心知识库
core knowledge pool
延迟
latency
学习与控制系统
learning and control system
协同作用
synergy
国际化经营
international operation
共享服务
shared services
金融体系
financial system
固定成本
fixed cost
内部市场机制
internal market mechanism
服务公司
service company
冲突管理
Conflict management
竞赛
competition
民主挑战
democratic challenge
二分法、连续体和多维方案
dichotomy, continuum, and multidimensional scheme
交互管理
interaction management
输/输到赢/赢的环境
lose/lose to win/win environments
多心智系统
multi-minded system
零和博弈
zero-sum game
建立共识的过程
Consensus-building process
假设和组织原则
assumptions and organizing principles
实干家
doers
平台创建
platform creation
问题解决者和制定者
problem solvers and formulators
核心业务部门,COM/能源
Core business units, COM/Energy
热电联产及能源供应包
cogeneration and packages of energy supply
以客户为导向的业务部门
customer-oriented business unit
能源效率和电工技术
energy efficiency and electrotechnology
天然气和电力分配
natural gas and electricity distribution
循环吸引子
Cycle attractor
德
D
需求可靠性
Demand reliability
设计思维
Design thinking
关键设计元素
critical design elements
“美元选票”定价体系
“dollar votes,” pricing system
交换系统
exchange system
横向兼容性
horizontal compatibility
测量与奖励制度
measurement and reward system
生产性就业机会
productive employment opportunity
目标成本
target costing
时间兼容性
temporal compatibility
交互式设计
interactive design
混乱和复杂
chaos and complexity
语境现象
context phenomenon
参与设计
design for participation
信息/金钱
information/money
学习和适应
learning and adaptation
混乱,定义
mess, definition
运营可行性
operational viability
真实环境
real-world environment
二阶机
second-order machine
技术可行性
technological feasibility
I、II 和 III 类约束
type I, II and III constraints
模块化设计
modular design
定制分离单元设计
custom-made separation unit design
模块化
modularity
平台和模块,定义
platform and module, definition
经营原则
operating principles
运筹学
operations research
社会变革、设计和过程
social change, design and process
发展
Development
异化
alienation
腐败
corruption
梗阻
obstruction
复数
plurality
功能和过程的单一性、结构的单一性
of function and process, singularity of structure
功能和结构的单一性、过程的单一性
of function and structure, singularity of process
结构、功能和过程
of structure, function, and process
极化
polarization
分而治之策略
divide and rule strategy
二阶学习
second-order learning
社会病态
social pathology
时空现实
spacio-temporal reality
奇点
singularity
定义
definition
功能和流程、结构多元
of function and process, plurality of structure
功能和结构、流程多元化
of function and structure, plurality of process
功能、结构和过程的多元性
of function, plurality of structure and process
功能、结构和流程
of function, structure, and process
结构和过程、功能多元化
of structure and process, plurality of function
系统视图
systems view
意愿和能力
desire and ability
新兴组织模式
emerging mode of organization
工党和保守党
Labor and Conservative parties
安全和自由
security and freedom
自我限制
self-limitation
社会功能
social function
社会制度
social system
F
F
福特汽车公司
Ford Motor Company
格
G
游戏进化
Game evolution
竞技游戏
competitive games
事业部制
divisional structure
互动管理
interactive management
精益生产体系
lean production system
大规模生产
mass production
运筹学
Operations Research
数量级变化
order-of-magnitude change
参与式管理
participative management
金融和智力资源重组
financial and intellectual resource restructure
游戏规则改变
game change
模仿
imitation
惯性
inertia
探究性质
nature of inquiry
初始/基线措施
initial/baseline measures
参与、迭代和二阶学习
participation, iteration, and second-order learning
社会系统
social systems
系统思维
systems thinking
伍德黑文行动
Woodhaven operation
次优化
suboptimization
赫
H
加氢裂化装置
HDS
医疗保健系统
Health care system
共同特征
common features
背景
contextual background
所需规格
desired specification
介入治疗
interventional care
预防保健
preventive care
临终关怀
terminal care
生存护理
viability care
医疗保健系统(HDS)
Health delivery system (HDS)
复合性能概况
composite performance profile
客户-供应商关系
customer–provide relationship
参与和所有权
engagement and ownership
医疗保健能力
health-care competency
医疗保健过程
health-care process
“低层次”方法
“low-archical” approach
组织生存力
organizational viability
产品开发
product development
社会系统
social systems
次优化
suboptimization
整体迭代思维
Holistic iterative thinking
整体思维
Holistic thinking
自由和文化
freedom and culture
生成和传播
generation and dissemination
美丽
beauty
知识
knowledge
力量
power
价值
value
理想追寻系统
ideal-seeking systems
反复探究的过程
iterative process of inquiry
分析性、综合性和动态思维
analytical, synthetic, and dynamic thinking
相互依赖的变量
interdependent variables
多学科方法
multidisciplinary approach
生产者和产品
producers and product
辛格实验主义
Singerian experimentalism
社会文化系统
sociocultural systems
多维识别
multidimensionality recognition
主要原因
prime cause
我
I
拐点
Inflection point
信息保税系统
Information-bonded system
互动元素,混乱
Interactive elements, mess
互动管理
Interactive management
发展
development
相互作用和强大的强化作用
interactions and powerful reinforcing effects
操作表现
operational manifestation
迭代思考
Iterative thinking
J
J
联合优化
Joint optimization
大号
L
学习系统
Learning systems
倡导职能
advocacy functions
文化发展
cultural development
功能
function
治理和系统间关系
governance and intersystem relationships
知识库
knowledge bank
学会做人(文化教育)
learning to be (cultural education)
学会做(专业教育)
learning to do (professional education)
学会学习(正规教育)
learning to learn (formal education)
奥奈达综合大学
Oneida multiversity
输出
outputs
绩效标准和措施
performance criteria and measures
专业化体系
professional-based system
共用设施
shared facilities
线性和非线性系统
Linear and nonlinear systems
多环非线性反馈系统
multi-loop nonlinear feedback system
学业成功
academic success
两党联盟
bipartisan coalition
混沌理论
chaos theory
复杂性、相互依赖性和违反直觉的行为
complexity, interdependency, and counterintuitive behavior
互动模式
interactive model
iThink 软件
iThink software
模式识别
pattern recognition
9/11 之后的安全
post-9/11 security
原则、操作性思维
principles, operational thinking
强化和抵消反馈回路
reinforcing and counteracting feedback loops
恒温器
thermostat
米
M
市场潜力
Market potential
万豪酒店、度假村及套房 (MHRS)
Marriott Hotels, Resorts, and Suites (MHRS)
混乱的制定
Mess formulation
驱动因素、经济状况
drivers, economy state
预警系统
early-warning system
金融和银行业
financial and banking sector
游戏变化和明确的愿景
game changes and explicit vision
游戏进化
game evolution
投入型人才政策
input-based personnel policy
管理层不愿
management reluctance
映射
mapping
运作系统低效
ineffective operational system
二阶机
second-order machine
主题生成
theme generation
“II 型”属性
“type II” properties
平庸和宽容,无能
mediocrity and tolerance, incompetence
垄断、成本加成和受监管的环境
monopolistic, cost plus and regulated environment
多重反馈回路
multiple feedback loops
非竞争性文化
non-competitive culture
搜索阶段
searching phase
定义
definition
股票市场资本主义
stock market capitalism
结构不相容
structural incompatibility
不确定
uncertainty
相互依赖性建模
Modeling interdependency
动态相互作用
dynamic interactions
反馈回路
feedback loops
混乱表述
mess formulation
区域福利制度
regional welfare system
模块化设计
Modular design
哦
O
奥奈达综合大学
Oneida multiversity
学习细胞
learning cells
学习过程
learning process
练习细胞
practice cells
研究细胞
research cells
奥奈达族
Oneida nation
业务系统
business systems
集体所有制
collective ownership
愿望和能力
desires and abilities
发展
development
生成和传播
generation and dissemination
治理和系统间关系
governance and intersystem relationships
个人所有权和战略联盟
individual ownership and strategic alliances
工业部门
industry sector
土地和农业部门
land and agriculture sector
休闲部门
leisure sector
合作伙伴关系和特许经营发展
partnership and franchise development
服务业
services sector
核心服务
core services
遵守
compliance
治理和监督
governance and oversight
卫生服务
health services
绩效标准和措施
performance criteria and measures
公共工程
public works
记录管理
records management
社会服务
social services
空间规划与工程
space planning and engineering
设计团队
design team
外部环境
external environment
治理
governance
BC 职责
BC responsibilities
参谋长
chief of staff
金融系统
financial systems
GB 监测机构
GB monitoring authority
管理机构
governing body
人体系统
human systems
规划、学习和控制委员会
planning, learning, and control board
平台
platform
技术系统
technical systems
预期设计,期望规格
intended design, desired specifications
司法系统
judicial system
语境分析
contextual analysis
学习系统
learning systems
倡导职能
advocacy functions
文化发展
cultural development
功能
function
治理和系统间关系
governance and intersystem relationships
知识库
knowledge bank
学会做人(文化教育)
learning to be (cultural education)
学会做(专业教育)
learning to do (professional education)
学会学习(正规教育)
learning to learn (formal education)
奥奈达综合大学
Oneida multiversity
输出
outputs
绩效标准和措施
performance criteria and measures
专业化体系
professional-based system
共用设施
shared facilities
会员制度
membership systems
建立共识的过程
consensus-building process
标准和措施
criteria and measures
缺点
disadvantages
赋权
empowerment
多数决原则
majority rule
会员网络
membership network
纽带
tie that bonds
系统架构
systems architecture
操作系统、文化
Operating system, culture
主动适应
active adaptation
混乱的秩序
chaotic orders
基督教/西方文明
Christian/western civilization
解放
emancipation
场论(惠特利)
field theory (Wheatley)
外国入侵
foreign invasion
意识形态
ideologies
交互式设计
interactive design
伊斯兰文明
Islamic civilization
负熵系统
neg-entropic systems
预定义顺序
predefined order
二阶机
second-order-machine
共享图片
shared image
运营思维
Operational thinking
复杂
complexity
线性和非线性系统
linear and nonlinear systems
动态过程
dynamic process
涌现特性
emergent properties
iThink 模型
iThink model
开环思维
open loop thinking
吞吐量系统动力学
throughput systems dynamics
关键特性
critical properties
周期时间、成本、灵活性和质量
cycle time, cost, flexibility, and quality
吞吐量定义
definition of throughput
教育体系
education system
界面与有效耦合
interface and effective coupling
测量与学习
measurement and learning
流程模型
process model
单向因果关系
unidirectional causality
解锁黑匣子
unlocking the black box
运筹学(OR)
Operations Research (OR)
原始设备制造商 (OEM)
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
磷
P
泛美综合症
Pan Am Syndrome
零件和人工可互换性
Parts and labor interchangeability
点吸引子
Point attractor
有能力完成
Power-to-do
产品效力
Product potency
年代
S
社会融合
Social integration
情绪
emotions
个性与集体
individuality and collectivity
会员资格
membership
追求快乐
pursuit of pleasure
社会文化体系
Sociocultural system
文化
culture
默认决策系统
default decision systems
设计思维
design thinking
形象构建与抽象
image building and abstraction
作为操作系统
as operating system
潜力和活力
potentiality and vitality
时空因果现实
spatio-temporal-causal realities
信息绑定系统
information-bonded systems
解决方案设计
Solution design
股票市场资本主义
Stock market capitalism
奇异引力子
Strange attractor
系统架构
Systems architectures
系统原则
Systems principles
违反直觉的行为
counterintuitive behavior
吸引子
attractors
混沌理论
chaos theory
多重目的性
multifinality
社会动态
social dynamics
社会系统
social systems
涌现属性
emergent property
兼容性
compatibility
幸福
happiness
成功的表现
manifestations of success
在线和实时
online and real time
生命现象
phenomenon of life
愛的現象
phenomenon of love
多维性
multidimensionality
妥协
compromise
定义
definition
自由、正义和安全
freedom, justice, and security
相互依存、趋势
mutual interdependence, tendencies
非零和公式
non-zero-sum formulation
秩序与复杂性
order and complexity
处理复数
process plurality
零和博弈
zero-sum game
多心智系统
multi-minded system
开放性
openness
机会、选择和确定性因素
chance, choice, and certainty elements
混乱的简单性
chaotic simplicity
语境变量
contextual variable
顾客
customers
定义
definition
计量经济模型
econometric model
影响
influence
开放(生命)系统
open (living) systems
有组织的复杂性
organized complexity
供应商
suppliers
交易环境
transactional environment
电视
T
技术/供应导向业务部门、COM/能源
Technology/supply-oriented business units, COM/Energy
能源生产
energy generation
天然气储存(液化天然气)
gas storage (LNG)
蒸汽服务
steam service
恐怖主义
Terrorism
公民社会
civil society
意识形态之争
ideological battle
宗教原教旨主义
religious fundamentalism
二级阻塞
second-order obstruction
社会文化系统
sociocultural system
零和博弈
zero-sum game
万豪集团
The Marriott Corporation
建筑学
architecture
品牌管理
brand management
商业管理
business management
核心组件
core component
核心知识
core knowledge
关键过程
critical process
维护管理
maintenance management
管理和组织灵活性
managerial and organizational flexibility
医学和医学护理系统
MHRS
最优产品组合
optimum product mix
产品/市场组合
product/market mix
项目管理
project management
销售量
sales
协同作用、延迟和效率
synergy, latency, and efficiency
环境
environment
“混乱”表述
“mess” formulation
使命
mission
原则和期望特征
principles and desired characteristics
适当规模
right-sizing
结构性冲突
structural conflict
供应商-客户关系
supplier–customer relation
吞吐量过程模型
Throughput process model
职能组织结构
functional organizational structure
iThink 软件
iThink software
多维性和突现特性
multidimensionality and emergent property
维修、维护和计划产能扩张
repair, maintenance, and planned capacity expansion
松弛因子
slack factor
以数量为导向的奖励制度
volume-oriented reward system
环面吸引子
Torus attractor
西
W
温特尔
WinTel